标签： Europe

BRUSSELS – After months of debilitating deadlock that left Kyiv waiting for critical support amid its ongoing war with Russia, European Union envoys convened in Brussels this week with a rare sense of cautious optimism that a historic €90 billion ($106 billion) multi-year loan package for Ukraine could finally win final approval as soon as Thursday. The massive funding package is designed to cover Ukraine’s urgent military and core financial needs over the next two years, shoring up an economy shattered by nearly four years of full-scale Russian invasion and helping Kyiv maintain its defensive line against advancing Moscow forces.

The months-long logjam revolved around a single sticking point: Hungary’s veto, which Prime Minister Viktor Orbán – who was ousted in last month’s general election and will step down next month to make way for pro-EU opposition leader Péter Magyar – refused to lift until Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukrainian territory resumed. Hungary and neighboring Slovakia both remain dependent on Russian crude to meet their national energy demands, and the two countries had accused Kyiv of dragging its feet on repairing a section of the pipeline damaged in a Russian missile strike earlier this year.

That barrier appears to have been cleared, Ukrainian officials confirmed this week. In a social media statement Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that all repair work on the damaged pipeline segment was complete. “The pipeline was damaged by a Russian strike, but it can resume operation now,” Zelenskyy said, adding that there are no longer any justifications for holding up the aid package. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha reinforced that position, telling reporters Wednesday that Kyiv has fulfilled all conditions placed on it to unlock the funds: “We have completed everything — there is a date set, and the infrastructure has been repaired.” As of Wednesday, pipeline operator Ukrtransnaft had already resumed pumping crude into the line, and Slovakia’s Economy Minister Denisa Saková projected full shipments would reach the country early Thursday.

Even with repairs complete, however, final approval remains contingent on Orbán’s government following through on its threat to lift the veto once oil flows resume. EU diplomats spent Wednesday gauging whether Budapest would send the formal green light, with Cyprus – which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency – already preparing to launch a formal written approval procedure once the veto is lifted. Such procedures typically remain open for 24 hours, aligning with the timeline for final approval to come during Thursday’s scheduled EU leader summit in Nicosia.

Given repeated false starts on unlocking the aid over recent months, EU officials are approaching the potential breakthrough with measured caution. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas declined to speculate on a guaranteed outcome when pressed by reporters Tuesday, noting: “We expect an agreement in 24 hours, so I don’t want to jinx it.”

The path to this point has been marked by repeated political wrangling over the structure of the aid package. The EU initially planned to back the loan using frozen Russian sovereign assets held across the bloc as collateral, but that plan was derailed by objections from Belgium, where the vast majority of these frozen assets are stored. A revised framework was struck in December, when Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic agreed to allow the EU to raise the funds on international markets without requiring the three nations to participate in any guarantee obligations. Orbán later backtracked on that agreement amid his re-election campaign, tying the aid to the pipeline dispute and drawing sharp anger from the other 24 EU member states, before ultimately losing his bid for re-election in a landslide on April 12.

Parallel to the aid negotiations, the EU is also working to unblock a new package of economic sanctions against Russia, which have also been held up by Hungary and Slovakia over the same pipeline dispute. Unlike the aid package, however, diplomats indicate the new sanctions could take significantly longer to finalize. Slovakia’s Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár confirmed Tuesday that his country would only support the new sanctions once oil shipments are confirmed to have resumed, noting as of Tuesday that “we do not have such information yet.”

After months of political gridlock that left Ukraine waiting for critically needed financial support, European Union ambassadors are convening in Cyprus this week with widespread optimism that a stalled €90 billion ($78 billion) emergency loan for Kyiv will finally receive final approval. The landmark funding package was first agreed to by all 27 EU member states back in December 2024, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán placed a veto on disbursement in February 2025, tying the release of the loan directly to the restoration of Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, which stopped flowing at the end of January.

The disruption to Druzhba, one of Europe’s longest-running oil supply routes, originated after Russian missile strikes targeted a key Ukrainian oil hub along the pipeline in late January. Ukrainian officials confirmed the attack caused substantial damage to infrastructure at the Brody hub, with emergency services releasing photos of smoke rising from the facility after the bombardment. Satellite imagery of the site later corroborated the extent of the damage, and Kyiv noted that repair efforts were slowed by ongoing Russian threats to engineering teams working in the combat zone. Orbán, however, dismissed Ukraine’s explanation and framed the disruption as a deliberate “oil blockade” against Hungary and neighboring Slovakia, demanding full resumption of flows before lifting his veto.

Two key developments have now cleared the path to ending the deadlock, EU diplomats say. First, Ukrainian authorities confirmed last week that all repairs to the Druzhba hub have been completed, and Hungarian energy giant Mol announced Tuesday that Ukrainian pipeline operators notified it that oil supplies would restart Wednesday for both Hungary and Slovakia — marking the first resumption of flows in nearly three months. Second, Orbán’s 16-year consecutive tenure as Hungarian prime minister came to an end after his ruling party lost a bitterly contested national election on 13 April 2025. Hungary’s incoming prime minister, Péter Magyar, has made resetting Budapest’s strained relations with Brussels a central policy priority, removing a long-standing barrier to EU consensus on Ukraine support.

Ahead of the ambassadorial meeting, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas voiced strong confidence that a positive outcome would be reached. “We expect some positive decisions… on the €90bn loan,” Kallas told reporters. “Ukraine really needs this loan and it’s also a sign that Russia cannot outlast Ukraine.” For Kyiv, the funding is not just politically symbolic — it is an urgent matter of survival, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka, who described the package as “a matter of life and death” for the country. Under the original agreement, two-thirds of the €90 billion will be allocated to reinforcing Ukraine’s defense capabilities against Russia’s full-scale invasion, while the remaining third will go toward general financial stabilization and supporting core public services.

Orbán, who remains in office as a caretaker prime minister until Magyar’s government is formed in early May, confirmed his position over the weekend, stating that once oil flows through Druzhba were restored, “we will no longer stand in the way of approving the loan.” The former prime minister’s decision to backtrack on the December 2024 agreement had sparked deep anger among other EU leaders, who had already granted Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic an opt-out from the EU’s broader Russian oil sanctions to accommodate their energy dependence on Druzhba supplies.

Long viewed as the European Union’s most Kremlin-aligned leader, Orbán centered his failed re-election campaign on open hostility to both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and EU institutional leadership. Campaign posters distributed across Hungary depicted Zelenskyy alongside opposition candidate Péter Magyar with the slogan: “They are dangerous!” In recent days, Zelenskyy has held urgent talks with senior EU leaders to push for the loan’s unblocking, including conversations with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa on Tuesday.

“There can be no grounds for blocking it any more,” Zelenskyy said after the calls. “The EU asked Ukraine to repair the Druzhba oil pipeline, which had been destroyed by Russia. We have repaired it. We hope the EU will also deliver on the agreed commitments.” Even if the ambassadors formally approve the disbursement this week, Ukrainian media outlets report that administrative and financial processing will likely take several more weeks before the funds actually arrive in Kyiv. In a parallel development that underscores the ongoing disruption to energy infrastructure tied to the conflict, Ukrainian forces have also targeted Russian oil facilities linked to the Druzhba pipeline this week, including a pumping station in Russia’s Samara region.

As European Union leaders gather in Cyprus for a high-stakes summit this week, the island nation’s president is pushing for urgent progress on a long-unaddressed collective defense rule that has suddenly moved to the top of the bloc’s security agenda. In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press on Tuesday, President Nikos Christodoulides outlined his priority for the gathering: building a concrete operational framework for the EU’s mutual defense clause, Article 42.7, which has never been activated despite its placement in the bloc’s founding treaties.

The treaty clause legally obliges all 27 EU member states to provide all possible aid and assistance to any member that faces armed aggression on its territory. However, decades after the clause was written, no standardized protocols exist to guide how member states should respond if a nation formally invokes the provision. “We have Article 42.7 and we don’t know what is going to happen if a member state triggers this article,” Christodoulides explained ahead of the summit, which will also host leaders from four Middle Eastern nations and focus heavily on the ongoing Iran war and its regional spillover risks.

For Christodoulides, this push for clarity comes from direct, recent experience. Just one month ago, a Shahed drone struck a British air base on Cyprus’ southern coast, located only 129 miles from the Lebanese capital Beirut, from where Cypriot officials assessed the drone was launched. The incident marked the first drone attack on EU territory linked to the Iran war, prompting Christodoulides to activate a call for support from bloc partners. In response, Greece, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Portugal quickly deployed anti-drone capable naval assets to help bolster the island’s defenses, highlighting both the willingness of members to assist and the lack of pre-planned coordination for such events.

Two key unresolved points top the agenda for drafting the new playbook. First, Christodoulides noted that the majority of EU member states also hold membership in NATO, which has its own collective defense Article 5 that defines an attack on one ally as an attack on all. The EU’s new framework must clarify how dual-member states can coordinate their responses to an EU Article 42.7 call without conflicting with their existing NATO obligations. Second, leaders will need to resolve core unanswered questions: whether any response to an invoked Article 42.7 would be a collective bloc-wide effort modeled on NATO, or limited to neighboring states of the affected country, as well as what types of resources and tools would be deployed for different categories of security crises.

Beyond the mutual defense planning, the summit will also advance a key Cypriot priority for the bloc’s current presidency: deepening strategic cooperation between the EU and Middle Eastern nations. Christodoulides said he has been encouraged by growing recognition among fellow EU leaders of the urgency of closer ties, which he is advancing through initiatives like the Mediterranean Pact, which delivers targeted programming in health, education and energy across regional partner states. Leaders from Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan will attend the informal summit this week, creating a rare opportunity to turn dialogue into tangible, elevated strategic cooperation. Cyprus, he noted, holds unique trust as an intermediary between the Greater Middle East and EU institutions in Brussels. “We can represent the interest of the countries of the Greater Middle East to Brussels, but at the same time, the countries in the region trust Cyprus to represent them in the European Union,” he said.

Christodoulides also used the interview to champion the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an ambitious connectivity project designed to link European markets with India via the Middle East, which backers say will boost regional peace, stability and economic integration. Under the Cypriot EU presidency, a new “Friends of IMEC” working group has been launched to advance the initiative, which currently lacks a roster of specific actionable projects. One priority project, the Great Seas Interconnector — an undersea electricity cable that would link the power grids of Greece, Cyprus and eventually Israel — has faced repeated costly delays. Christodoulides added that he sees strong potential for collaboration with the United States to move IMEC forward, framing the project as a mutual benefit for both the EU and Washington.

The ongoing Iran war has also refocused attention on the EU’s urgent need to diversify its energy supplies, a topic that will feature in summit discussions. Christodoulides confirmed he is in active talks with EU executive leaders about developing Cyprus’ offshore natural gas deposits as a stable alternative supply source for the bloc. He added that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will unveil detailed new proposals on Friday addressing energy costs and advancing the bloc’s goal of greater energy independence.

Finally, Christodoulides called for faster progress on EU enlargement, noting that the bloc’s repeated delays in accepting new prospective members over the past two years has eroded trust among candidate nations. “So we have a strong geopolitical tool that we are losing mainly because of our mistakes,” he said. While he acknowledged that decision-making has accelerated in recent months, he stressed that enlargement remains one of the EU’s most critical geopolitical tools, requiring concrete, timely action in the near term.