标签： Europe

Following September’s tightly controlled Russian legislative elections, the Kremlin now holds an even stronger grip on the State Duma, with ruling party United Russia boasting more parliamentary seats than at any point in modern Russian history. Dubbed the “Special Election Operation” by one domestic outlet, the vote has allowed the Kremlin to publicly claim it holds an overwhelming popular mandate for its ongoing actions in Ukraine, leaving global observers parsing what this new super-majority means for the trajectory of the conflict.

Just one day after Vladimir Putin received a celebratory welcome from the newly seated parliament, attention has shifted to his upcoming address at the annual Valdai Discussion Club, Moscow’s premier foreign policy forum that has long served as a window into the Russian president’s strategic thinking. Right now, all available indicators suggest Putin intends to continue Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, despite staggering battlefield casualties and mounting economic damage from Western sanctions. Multiple assessments from both Russian and Western observers point to growing confidence in the Kremlin that ongoing winter airstrikes, capitalizing on Ukraine’s reported critical shortage of air defense missiles and systems, will wear down Kyiv’s resistance. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly acknowledged their struggles to intercept Russia’s daily barrages of ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones, a vulnerability Moscow is actively exploiting.

Beyond the frontlines in Ukraine, the Kremlin has openly targeted European support for Kyiv, arguing that Western military and financial aid is prolonging the conflict and blocking a Russian victory. Western security officials accuse Moscow of waging an escalating hybrid campaign across European soil, encompassing cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, and repeated Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace. The most high-profile recent incident saw an explosive-laden drone discovered near Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig Airport in Germany, a move that fits what Western officials describe as a “grey zone” campaign waged between formal peace and open war.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected accusations that Moscow is waging a hybrid war against Europe, instead flipping the narrative to claim the conflict is already a European war against Russia. “If you admit your weapons are being used to strike us and we destroy them, call it whatever you want,” Lavrov stated. “But I have no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against us. We’ve been saying so for a long time.” This framing ignores the core fact that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and remains the occupying power in multiple regions of the country.

Many global policymakers are now asking how far Moscow is willing to go to break European support for Kyiv, with fears of open conflict between Russia and a NATO member state rising in some capitals. Most strategic assessments judge direct military conflict with NATO as unlikely: after more than four and a half years of fighting, Russia has still failed to seize full control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which shares a direct border with Russia. While open war may not be on the table, strategic analysts broadly agree that sowing fear and uncertainty across Europe to erode public and political support for Ukraine is a core Russian goal.

Hardline voices within Russia’s foreign policy establishment have doubled down on aggressive rhetoric in recent days, including explicit nuclear threats against European states. Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s influential Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, warned that continued Western support for Ukraine will force Russia to escalate. “If they continue this war, a European war with American help, against Russia, on Ukrainian territory, sooner or later we’ll feel the need to escalate,” Karaganov told the BBC. “According to my scenarios, the first series of blows will be conventional, but if Europe does not surrender, unfortunately, we will have to go nuclear. There will be little left of some European countries.” When pressed on the reality of mutually assured nuclear destruction, Karaganov dismissed the possibility of a Western retaliatory strike, claiming U.S. and European leaders would not risk their own destruction to defend Ukraine. When asked to acknowledge the severe human and economic costs of the conflict for Russia, Karaganov admitted heavy casualties but argued the Kremlin had not been aggressive enough, stating Moscow’s current goal is to eliminate Ukraine as a functional independent state. If that is indeed the Kremlin’s end goal, experts say, there is little prospect of the conflict ending in the near term.

Lavrov doubled down on Russia’s narrative during recent UN General Assembly appearances, accusing the West of widespread hypocrisy and brute force across the globe, pointing to U.S. actions in Venezuela and the killing of Iranian military leaders as evidence. When pressed by the BBC on Russia’s own daily use of brute force in Ukraine, Lavrov framed the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure as a necessary response to a Western-backed “Nazi regime” that threatens Russian security. This familiar narrative, which relies on the false framing of Ukraine as a neo-Nazi state, paired with Lavrov’s open admission of Russia’s use of brute force, has reinforced Western assessments that Moscow has no intention of entering good-faith peace negotiations in the near future.

In a landmark verdict closing one of the darkest chapters in European migrant crossing history, a French court has convicted six people traffickers of causing the deaths of 31 migrants who drowned in the deadliest small-boat disaster ever recorded in the English Channel.

After four weeks of testimony and deliberation in a Paris courtroom, the six defendants were found guilty of involuntary homicide and handed prison sentences ranging from six to 10 years. Seven lower-level co-defendants received lesser sentences of up to four years, while one additional person accused in the case was acquitted of all charges.

The tragedy unfolded in the early hours of November 24, 2021, just moments after the overloaded migrant vessel sent repeated distress calls to both French and British coast guard authorities. Of the 33 people packed into the unfit craft, only two men survived the sinking. The list of victims includes a 7-year-old child, with the vast majority of the deceased identifying as Iraqi Kurds; others were Afghans, Egyptians, and Iranian Kurds.

Court documents detail that the criminal networks intentionally launched the migrants from the French coast in a vessel that was fundamentally unfit for open sea travel: it was poorly constructed, lacked official safety certification, was critically overloaded, and did not carry properly functioning life jackets for all passengers. The trial confirmed that the convicted traffickers belonged to two separate, cooperating smuggling rings — one led by Iraqi Kurds, the other by Afghans — that worked together to move migrants to coastal departure points and coordinate the dangerous crossing to the United Kingdom.

In an unusual step that centered the human cost of the disaster, the trial opened with emotional testimony from family members of the victims, who traveled to France from Iraqi Kurdistan to share their stories. Speaking after the verdict, Matthieu Chirez, the lawyer representing the victims’ families, called the conviction a relief for all civil plaintiffs, as it formally confirms the criminal responsibility of the smuggling networks. He added that the high-profile trial had given dignity and a voice to the grieving families, humanizing a story that has often been reduced to political rhetoric.

Zana Marmand Muhammed, whose younger brother Twana died in the wreck, told the court his brother had been driven to attempt the crossing by ongoing regional violence and a desire to find stable work in England. “No-one in the family wanted him to leave, but we could not dissuade him,” Muhammed testified. Nabi Mustafa Mina, father of 19-year-old victim Zanyar, shared a similar account: he offered his son everything he had to convince him to stay — including help to marry, full ownership of the family home, and half of his monthly salary — but Zanyar insisted he could build a better life in the UK. “I ran out of arguments,” Mina told the court.

Family members explained how they had paid smuggling deposits in local banks in Iraqi Kurdistan, then tracked their loved ones’ dangerous journey through Turkey, Italy, and finally to northern France. One of the final social media posts from Twana was a photo of himself standing in front of the Eiffel Tower.

A statement from Issa Omar, one of the two survivors, was read to the court by his lawyer. “I would have liked to appear before the judge but I do not have the strength,” Omar said. “Since the wreck I have the impression that part of me disappeared beneath the waves.” Chirez detailed the harrowing ordeal Omar endured to survive: he clung to floating bodies and a stray life jacket for hours, staying awake through sheer will to avoid slipping under the water and swimming constantly to keep his heart from stopping in the frigid Channel water.

French investigators used phone tracking data to unmask members of the two smuggling networks, mapping out how lower-level operatives provided shelter to migrants, transported them across France to the informal “jungle” camp outside Calais, and assisted with final preparations on the night of departure. The alleged head of the Iraqi Kurd network, a man identified as Bashdar, was not among the defendants in this trial — he remains in custody in Iraq. Bashdar’s close aide, Harem Ahmed Abawaker, received an eight-year prison sentence. The harshest sentence, 10 years behind bars, was given to Obaidullah Maroofkhel, the leader of the Afghan smuggling ring, who was tried in absentia alongside one other defendant.

Of the 14 total defendants in the case, most are Afghan or Iraqi Kurd. All but one were allowed to remain free while the trial proceeded, prompting the court to issue six new arrest warrants immediately following the guilty verdict.

Separate from the trafficking trial, a parallel police investigation is ongoing into seven members of the French armed forces who are accused of failing to respond to the migrants’ distress calls on the night of the sinking. The seven individuals are assigned to the regional sea rescue center or serve on a French navy vessel, and prosecutors are investigating allegations that they ignored repeated distress signals from the sinking boat. A decision on whether to bring criminal charges against the service members and send them to trial is expected in the coming months.

The guilty verdict comes as France and the United Kingdom have officially announced the end of the controversial “one-in, one-out” migrant returns scheme, a one-year policy that required France to accept irregular migrants turned away by the UK in exchange for the UK taking in asylum seekers with approved claims. French officials had previously criticized the program, noting it failed to deliver on its core goal of disrupting the financial business model of people smuggling networks, with only slightly more than 1,000 migrants processed through the scheme during its operation.

In a major escalation of targeted strikes against critical civilian infrastructure, Russia has carried out the largest-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy network since the spring of this year, with the capital Kyiv and its surrounding suburbs bearing the brunt of the assault, Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi has confirmed.

Local Ukrainian authorities confirmed Wednesday that the overnight barrage left at least six people dead across 11 different regions of the country, and injured 33 more. Among the fatalities is one child killed in the Kyiv region, whose body was recovered from the rubble of a destroyed residential home, according to Kyiv regional governor Timur Tkachenko.

The wave of combined strikes not only claimed civilian lives but also severely disrupted national power distribution, cutting electricity service to thousands of households. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy provider, announced Wednesday that crews had managed to restore power to 8,000 homes in Kyiv following what the company described as an extraordinarily difficult night of restoration work amid ongoing security risks.

Russia’s defense ministry claimed one of its primary targets in the assault was the Trypilska power station, Kyiv’s single largest supplier of electricity. As of Wednesday afternoon, this claim remained unconfirmed by any Ukrainian official sources.

In an official statement posted to the messaging platform Telegram, Prime Minister Koretskyi noted that enemy strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have become a near-daily occurrence since the start of summer. “However, a mass and combined attack of this scale has occurred for the first time since the end of the last heating season,” he added.

Ukrainian officials have been preparing for months for a renewed, extended campaign of Russian attacks on the country’s energy grid – a pattern that has repeated every winter since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The overnight assault marked the beginning of that anticipated campaign, as temperatures begin to drop ahead of the winter heating season.

Beyond energy facilities, the barrage also targeted civilian sites across 11 Ukrainian regions, including residential apartment blocks, public social infrastructure sites, private civilian enterprises, and railway lines, according to Koretskyi. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that critical infrastructure was hit in the Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad and Rivne regions, extending the attack far beyond the Kyiv metropolitan area.

As of Wednesday, the Ukrainian energy ministry reported that multiple households in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy and Kharkiv regions still remained without power. Ukrenergo, the country’s state-owned national grid operator, issued an urgent advisory asking residents to avoid using high-power electrical appliances between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. local time, noting that overall electricity generation capacity remained well below normal levels after the strikes.

For residents of Kyiv, Wednesday morning brought a city shrouded in thick, acrid smoke, with the lingering echoes of explosions from overnight air defense engagements. An active air raid alert remained in effect for hours after the last strike, with the distant sound of anti-aircraft gunfire cutting through the hazy urban atmosphere. Local officials ordered residents in multiple Kyiv districts to keep their windows closed until the toxic smoke plume could dissipate completely.

Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klischko confirmed that three people were killed in the capital alone, including a worker at a Ukrainian utility company who died at a targeted warehouse facility. It remained unclear Wednesday whether the child killed in the Kyiv region was included in this three-person death toll.

Regional officials confirmed additional fatalities outside the capital: two people were killed in the northeastern Sumy region, according to governor Oleh Hryhorov, and one more fatality was recorded in the southern Mykolaiv region, per acting regional governor Heorhiy Reshetilov.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and currently occupies approximately 18% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory, with fighting continuing along hundreds of kilometers of frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine.

For generations, Zaporizhstal has stood as the beating industrial heart of Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s major southern industrial hub. It has been the city’s largest and most stable employer, putting food on the table for thousands of local families like that of long-time worker Denys Maksyshko.

“Zaporizhstal is not just a big company, it’s the heart of the city,” Maksyshko says of the plant that has defined his hometown for decades. Today, that heart has stopped beating, brought down by a sustained campaign of Russian missile attacks. After four waves of strikes between August and September 2026, the 8,500-person facility has suspended operations indefinitely.

Almost every piece of major infrastructure at the plant has been ruined. Blast furnaces are heavily damaged, roofs are punctured by shrapnel, and not a single intact window remains across the sprawling facility. According to Oleksandr Myronenko, chief operating officer of Metinvest — Zaporizhstal’s parent company — Russia launched a total of 17 separate missiles at the plant, leaving eight workers dead and 31 others wounded.

Work crews are currently clearing rubble and drafting tentative recovery plans, but Myronenko confirms there is no guarantee the iconic plant will ever resume full operations. In a grim reminder of just how relentless the attacks have been, Metinvest official Oleksandr Vodoviz revealed that workers managed to restart one blast furnace after an initial strike — only for the facility to be hit again just 10 hours later. With the security situation still volatile, Vodoviz added that investing in large-scale repairs right now makes little practical sense.

Zaporizhstal is far from the only victim. Starting in August, Russia has systematically targeted every major metallurgical facility across Ukraine, hitting many of them multiple times. For Moscow, these plants are high-priority targets: before Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion, the mining and metallurgy sector made up roughly 10% of Ukraine’s gross domestic product and accounted for one-third of the country’s total export revenue. The industry supported more than 500,000 direct jobs, with one out of every 13 positions in Ukraine linked to the sector in some way.

Today, that entire critical sector has been brought to a near-complete standstill. Myronenko estimates that the industry’s contribution to Ukraine’s GDP is now “probably close to zero,” and all steel plants operated by Metinvest — once Ukraine’s largest steel and iron producer — are currently out of action.

“Clearly, they’re trying to stop Ukraine’s economy and stop Ukraine from getting export money from abroad, from paying taxes and wages, from ensuring that cities live and people have jobs,” Myronenko said. “Their efforts have been very effective so far.”

The destruction of Ukraine’s steel sector extends far beyond lost factory output, carrying cascading consequences for the entire country’s economy, social stability and even war efforts. Since the start of hostilities with Russia in 2014, Ukraine’s count of operational metallurgical plants has already shrunk from 12 to just six, following the loss of key industrial facilities including the Azovstal and Illich plants in Mariupol after the city fell to Russian forces.

One of the latest major facilities to fall silent is Arcelor Mittal Kryvyi Rih, the country’s largest steel plant, located in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown. After five weeks of repeated attacks, the plant announced on September 25 that it would not be able to reopen, noting that five workers had been killed in the strikes. Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the local Defence Council, called the attack a “very serious blow” that extends far beyond the thousands of direct jobs at the plant.

Metal companies have long been the financial backbone of the host cities where they operate, covering between 30% and 70% of all local government spending, according to Stanislav Zinchenko, head of Kyiv-based industrial consultancy GMK Center. Those tax revenues pay for municipal infrastructure, repairs to heating networks, early childhood education centers, social services, and a range of other public services that local residents depend on daily.

“In other words, the physical survival of these cities depended on these companies,” Zinchenko told the BBC. Before the current wave of attacks, the industry was also the country’s largest private investor, pouring an average of $2 billion to $3 billion into annual upgrades and expansion across Ukraine. Zinchenko warns that if steel plants remain closed, hundreds of thousands of people could lose their livelihoods, triggering mass migration that will extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders. “A humanitarian catastrophe is looming,” he said.

The shutdown also directly undermines Ukraine’s defense and post-attack reconstruction efforts. Steel is a critical raw material for manufacturing military equipment, building defensive fortifications, and repairing the thousands of residential and public buildings damaged by Russian strikes. Russia has tried to justify its attacks on steel plants by claiming the facilities were being used to produce military hardware, a claim that Ukrainian officials do not deny but frames as an attack on the country’s entire civilian economy.

Even if attacks stop and plants are able to restart, operating normally will remain nearly impossible for the foreseeable future. Russian strikes on railway infrastructure have made moving raw materials and finished steel across the country dangerous and unpredictable, while repeated attacks on Black Sea ports have turned export operations into a high-risk gamble.

“Ports have essentially been blocked,” Myronenko said. “Every ship is at risk of being attacked, and their chances are 50-50 — either you make it, or you don’t.” Compounding these challenges are new EU import quotas on Ukrainian steel that took effect on July 1, which threaten to further limit the sector’s ability to earn much-needed foreign revenue.

Despite the widespread destruction and grim outlook, many frontline workers like Denys Maksyshko remain determined to keep the industry alive. He and his colleagues continue to show up to the damaged plant every day, clearing rubble and repairing whatever small sections they can to prepare for an eventual restart.

“This is similar to what the military do in the trenches,” Maksyshko said. “Ordinary people are fighting to keep the factory alive like soldiers.”