Global Pulse

分类： business

  • Can cut-price Shein shine in its long-awaited stock market debut?

    Can cut-price Shein shine in its long-awaited stock market debut?

    After a years-long, circuitous journey toward a public listing that saw rejected bids in two major Western markets, global fast-fashion leader Shein is finally set to ring the opening bell on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, marking the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in the city so far in 2026.

    The long-awaited listing caps a tumultuous road to public markets for the ultra-cheap fashion giant, which first set its sights on a Wall Street debut after explosive growth during the Covid-19 pandemic. Locked-down shoppers turned to online retail en masse during that period, and Shein turned viral social media trends like the “Shein Haul” — where shoppers posted clips of themselves trying on dozens of low-cost new garments — into a massive global customer base. The company built its popularity on an agile China-based supply chain that delivers the latest trending styles to shoppers in more than 150 countries at price points few competitors can match. As of the 12 months ending in March 2026, Shein reports it counts 281 million active customers who placed more than 1 billion orders.

    But Shein’s push for a US listing ran into stiff political headwinds. US lawmakers raised widespread objections over long-standing allegations of forced labor in the company’s vast network of Chinese supplier factories, as well as ongoing claims that the brand frequently copies independent designers’ work. Shein has repeatedly pushed back against these claims, saying it enforces a zero-tolerance policy for forced labor and takes all intellectual property infringement claims seriously. After US regulatory and political resistance derailed its transatlantic listing plans, the company explored a debut in London, only to face similar opposition.

    By 2025, with Western doors largely closed, Shein shifted its focus to Hong Kong, securing regulatory approval for the listing in July 2026. The pivot to Asia marks part of a growing trend for Chinese global firms locked out of Western capital markets, analysts note. Ashley Dudarenok, founder of Chinese market research firm ChoZan, explained that after years of trying to position itself as less Chinese by shifting its headquarters to Singapore, Shein never secured the necessary political backing abroad or policy assurances at home to move forward with a Western listing. “Shein ran out of venues that could take it,” Dudarenok said. For companies shut out of Western exchanges, “Hong Kong is fast becoming the only realistic path to market,” added GlobalData retail analyst Louise Deglise-Favre.

    Ahead of its debut, Shein priced its offering below the upper end of its marketed range, raising a total of 13.6 billion Hong Kong dollars (equal to roughly $1.7 billion) and valuing the company at $26.3 billion. That marks a steep drop from its peak valuation of nearly $100 billion just a few years ago, a decline driven by growing competition, shifting trade rules, and investor skepticism around the fast fashion sector’s long-term profitability.

    Today, Shein faces a host of mounting challenges that have squeezed its bottom line and spooked investors. New trade policies in both the US and EU have targeted the low-value small package imports that were the foundation of Shein’s growth. The US recently revoked the de minimis rule exemption that had allowed packages under $800 to enter the country duty-free, cutting off a key cost advantage for the brand. In July, the company reported a $99 million quarterly loss as sales slowed following the rule change. The EU has similarly added a new €3 tax on low-value imports, while ongoing geopolitical volatility tied to the Iran war has further raised logistics costs and caused delivery delays in key markets. Rival discount platforms like Temu are also intensifying competition, with Temu parent company PDD already reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue in August 2026.

    Shein’s core business model has also come under growing global regulatory scrutiny for its environmental impact and labor practices, and the entire fast fashion sector has seen share prices slump in recent years: rivals Asos and Boohoo have seen their valuations battered by regulatory pressure and market competition. That has left investors far more skeptical of fast fashion business models than when Shein first began exploring an IPO, Deglise-Favre said. “Investors have learned to be sceptical,” she noted, adding that ongoing sustainability and ethical concerns only add more complexity to the offering.

    Despite the steep drop in valuation and mounting headwinds, some analysts still see long-term potential in the company. Deglise-Favre noted that while the valuation slump reflects a “genuine deterioration” in the company’s operating conditions, Shein still boasts a “formidable supply chain” and unrivaled global reach that other firms cannot match. As a rare standalone publicly traded e-commerce fashion firm, Shein’s IPO is being widely watched as a key test of global investor appetite for the fast fashion sector. Going forward, the company will need to prove it can adapt its model to a new regulatory landscape, including shifting portions of its supply chain and logistics outside China to avoid new import tariffs, while also rebuilding profit margins amid rising customer acquisition costs. As Dudarenok put it: as a public company, Shein must now “prove its margins still work in a world of tighter regulation, tariffs and more expensive customer acquisition.”

  • Japan Inc is betting big on India as China risks deepen

    Japan Inc is betting big on India as China risks deepen

    Against a backdrop of shifting global supply chains and stagnating domestic demand, Japanese corporations across retail, finance, technology and manufacturing are rapidly scaling their presence in India, marking one of the most significant cross-border investment waves the South Asian economy has seen in recent years.

    Last week, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal led the nation’s largest-ever business delegation to Tokyo to deepen bilateral trade and investment ties, a high-profile engagement that underscores how quickly Japan’s economic footprint in Asia’s third-largest economy has grown in recent years. A walk through any major commercial district in Mumbai, New Delhi or Bengaluru makes this expansion impossible to miss: established Japanese consumer brands are racing to open new locations, while first-time entrants are carving out new market share across the country.

    Well-known names including apparel retailers Uniqlo and Muji, as well as premium footwear brand Onitsuka Tiger, have operated in India for years, but are now rolling out aggressive expansion plans to reach tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Niche Japanese firms are also joining the push: furniture manufacturer Nitori recently completed its market entry, while major convenience store chain Lawson has announced plans to launch 10,000 locations across India by 2050, starting with a first wave of stores in Mumbai.

    The trend extends far beyond consumer retail. At a time when many global financial institutions are divesting from Indian banking assets, Japanese banks are actively acquiring large stakes in the country’s growing financial sector. In 2024, Japan’s largest lender MUFG Bank closed a $4.4 billion deal to purchase a 20% stake in Indian non-bank financial firm Shriram Finance, the largest single foreign investment in India’s financial history to date. That same year, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) became the largest shareholder of Indian private sector lender Yes Bank, acquiring a 24.22% stake in the institution.

    Japan has also emerged as the top Asia-Pacific contributor to India’s fast-growing global capability centre (GCC) ecosystem, according to recent analysis from professional services firm Deloitte. More than 100 Japanese multinational corporations now operate GCCs—offshore innovation hubs that handle high-value core functions including research and development, corporate strategy and artificial intelligence development—across India, tapping the country’s large pool of skilled tech and business talent.

    Industry analysts say this coordinated expansion is driven by clear long-term business logic. Vipul Nath Jindal, founder of Next Bharat Ventures, a Suzuki-backed impact fund that recently launched a $200 million India-focused fund, explained that Japan’s shrinking domestic population has created a permanent decline in domestic demand, forcing Japanese firms to look abroad for sustainable growth. “Japan’s population has been declining for 16 to 17 years, so it’s not just a temporary slowdown—its home market is permanently shrinking,” Jindal told the BBC.

    At the same time, other traditional expansion markets for Japanese firms have become far less attractive. Geopolitical tensions and shifting economic conditions have caused a sharp drop in Japanese investment into China, while high tariffs and intense domestic competition make the U.S. market a challenging growth destination, and smaller Southeast Asian economies lack the scale to support large-scale expansion. Against this backdrop, India’s 1.4 billion-person consumer market and rapidly growing middle class make it a natural long-term growth target.

    Bilateral government ties have laid the groundwork for this private sector boom. The two nations signed a bilateral trade liberalization agreement nearly 15 years ago, and after Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, the relationship was upgraded to a “special strategic and global partnership.” The Indian government set a target to double the number of Japanese firms operating in the country, and launched high-profile infrastructure projects including India’s first high-speed bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, which is being built using Japanese Shinkansen technology.

    Today, the expansion is being led primarily by private Japanese companies, rather than just intergovernmental initiatives. During Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s first official visit to New Delhi in July, Japanese firms announced 120 new investment agreements totalling $12.5 billion, spanning sectors from semiconductors to renewable energy. Commerce Minister Goyal has noted that Japan is on track to hit its 10 trillion yen ($68 billion) investment target for India years ahead of schedule. Even small and medium-sized Japanese enterprises (SMEs) are joining the trend: Hamamatsu City, a manufacturing hub that is home to Suzuki, Honda and Yamaha and hosts one of Japan’s highest concentrations of manufacturing SMEs, recently established the Hamamatsu India Committee to help local small businesses enter the Indian market.

    This rising investment in India has coincided with a drop in net Japanese investment into China, but experts emphasize that this is not a coordinated, government-led shift away from China. University of Tokyo researcher Toshiro Nishizaewa argues that the trend reflects a market-driven diversification strategy by Japanese firms, which are reallocating capital to reduce risk rather than responding to political pressure to decouple from China. Shruti Pandalai, India Chair at the Lowy Institute, explained that Japanese firms are simply reducing concentration risk after years of supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty, and India acts as a useful hedge against China-related disruptions. Pandalai adds that the alignment between Japan’s economic security priorities and India’s ambition to become a global manufacturing hub has strengthened the bilateral relationship, even through multiple changes of government in Tokyo. “Successive Japanese administrations have raised investment targets instead of cutting them, which shows the relationship is no longer just dependent on top-level diplomacy—it’s embedded in the bureaucratic, corporate and strategic planning of both countries,” she said.

    For India, which is actively seeking to attract sustained foreign direct investment to drive economic growth and job creation, this wave of Japanese capital comes at a critical juncture. Pandalai notes that closer economic cooperation with Japan could also help reduce India’s large trade deficit with China and gradually decrease Beijing’s economic leverage in key sectors including critical minerals and advanced manufacturing over the long term.

    Despite the momentum, experts warn that significant challenges remain to fully expanding the bilateral economic relationship. Pratnashree Basu, an analyst at the Observer Research Foundation, points out that Japan remains deeply integrated into Chinese manufacturing supply networks, which limits how far coordinated Japan-India economic action against China can go—any coordinated measures would impose major commercial costs on Japan and risk retaliation from Beijing.

    India’s own challenging business environment also remains a major barrier for foreign investors, including Japanese firms. Longstanding issues including tax policy uncertainty, bureaucratic red tape, and lengthy delays for land and environmental approvals continue to slow investment projects. A former Japanese cabinet minister recently publicly criticized the Indian government for repeated delays to the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train project, accusing India of reneging on commitments to prioritize its own interests—a claim the Indian government quickly rejected. Chinese state media quickly highlighted the public disagreement to emphasize what it frames as endemic contractual risks in doing business in India.

    The incident underscores that even as India signs dozens of large-scale economic and defense agreements with Japan, New Delhi will need to implement targeted regulatory and bureaucratic reforms to maintain the current investment momentum, especially as it struggles to attract consistent large-scale foreign capital from other major global economies.

  • Amazon rigged billions in ad pricing, lawsuit from states and US watchdog alleges

    Amazon rigged billions in ad pricing, lawsuit from states and US watchdog alleges

    A major new legal challenge has been brought against e-commerce and tech giant Amazon, as the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) joined by a bipartisan coalition of 22 states has filed an antitrust and consumer fraud lawsuit accusing the company of systematically inflating advertising costs for millions of sellers through manipulated auction processes. The legal action, lodged Monday in Washington state—the company’s home jurisdiction—lays out claims that the alleged hidden scheme has siphoned an estimated $20 billion in improper revenue from advertising clients since 2019, harming both sellers and everyday consumers in the process.

    At the core of the complaint is an allegation that Amazon intentionally overrides legitimate auction results for its high-demand ad placements to impose higher prices than what sellers would otherwise pay. On Amazon’s platform, thousands of brands and third-party sellers compete for prime Sponsored Product and Sponsored Brands ad slots, which appear when users search for specific product keywords. These slots are marketed to sellers as “second-price” auctions, where winners only pay one cent more than the second-highest bid. According to the lawsuit, however, Amazon secretly overrides this rule nearly 80% of the time for Sponsored Product ads, instead charging winning advertisers their full bid amount—a move that directly boosts the company’s bottom line at sellers’ expense.

    The complaint notes that Amazon implemented this opaque practice because corporate leadership was dissatisfied with the revenue the ad auctions were originally generating. Beyond harming advertising clients, the FTC and states argue that ordinary Amazon shoppers also bear the cost of these overcharges, as sellers pass inflated ad expenses through to retail prices. “Consumers are suffering, have suffered, and will continue to suffer substantial injury as a result of Amazon’s unlawful conduct,” the complaint reads.

    In an immediate response to the lawsuit, Amazon pushed back hard against the allegations, saying it “strongly disagrees” with the claims and calling the legal action “misguided.” The company rejected the FTC’s framing that the case impacts consumer prices, arguing that regulators have “fundamentally misunderstands how advertisers operate.” Amazon noted that advertisers regularly adjust their bids based on real campaign performance, not technical descriptions of auction rules. The company also released counter-data showing that average winning bids for Sponsored Products search ads dropped by 50% between 2019 and 2025, and that approximately 92% of ad placements are not awarded to the highest bidder.

    News of the lawsuit triggered an immediate market reaction, with Amazon’s share price closing 2.5% lower on the day of the announcement. This is not the first high-profile clash between Amazon and the FTC: just last year, the company paid a $2.5 billion settlement to resolve another case brought by the regulator, which accused Amazon of enrolling millions of users in its Prime subscription service without explicit consent and deliberately creating barriers to easy cancellation. The $2.5 billion settlement covered both civil penalties and refunds for harmed consumers.

    The latest lawsuit marks a continued escalation of U.S. regulatory scrutiny of big tech platforms, particularly their growing advertising businesses that have become major profit drivers for companies like Amazon, Google and Meta. As the legal process moves forward, the case will test how courts interpret fair business practices for digital advertising marketplaces that serve millions of small and large businesses alike.

  • Ex-congressman George Santos banned from betting platform for life

    Ex-congressman George Santos banned from betting platform for life

    Leading prediction market operator Kalshi has implemented a permanent trading ban against former U.S. Representative George Santos, following an internal investigation that found evidence of insider trading tied to bets on his own attendance at former President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address, the company announced in a formal disciplinary notice.

    Santos, a disgraced ex-lawmaker who was expelled from Congress in 2023 over multiple felony fraud and identity theft convictions, placed the series of controversial bets on the attendance outcome back in February. According to Kalshi’s compliance review, Santos held non-public information about his own plans that allowed him to manipulate the market for profit. The platform took proactive, independent action to issue the ban without waiting for external regulatory enforcement, marking one of the highest-profile penalties for misconduct in the fast-growing prediction trading sector.

    In a post on social platform X, Santos responded flippantly to the ban, thanking Kalshi and challenging the company’s long-term viability. The BBC has reached out to Santos for additional comment on the ruling, but has not received a formal response as of reporting.

    The current disciplinary action is the latest in a string of legal and regulatory consequences for Santos following his 2024 conviction on wire fraud and aggravated identity theft charges. Santos was sentenced to seven years in federal prison, but only served three months before former President Trump issued a full commutation of his sentence in 2025. Just two months prior to Kalshi’s permanent ban, Santos agreed to pay a $35,000 settlement to resolve a federal probe into the same State of the Union trades conducted by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

    Alongside the lifetime ban, Kalshi has imposed a financial penalty of $71,356 (equivalent to roughly £38,000) connected to the misconduct. The company confirmed it flagged Santos’s suspicious account activity to federal law enforcement authorities earlier this summer, after internal monitoring systems picked up irregular trading patterns.

    Kalshi’s investigation laid out clear details of the alleged scheme: the market in question let users wager on whether Santos would attend Trump’s State of the Union speech, an outcome Santos could directly control. Between February 2 and February 25, Santos placed multiple large bets on the outcome, and made false public statements about his attendance plans that moved contract prices on the platform. In the end, Santos walked away with $17,839.57 in illegal profits from the trades, per Kalshi’s findings.

    Santos has consistently denied wrongdoing in most public matters related to his conduct, though he has admitted to stealing the identities of nearly 12 people, including deceased family members, to advance his political career and personal finances. He pleaded guilty to the federal felony charges in 2024. Ahead of his 2022 election to Congress, Santos fabricated nearly all details of his professional and personal biography, including false claims of employment on Wall Street and family ties to the Holocaust. He became only the sixth sitting member of Congress in U.S. history to be expelled from the legislative body.

    The Santos case comes as the entire prediction market industry faces growing regulatory scrutiny. Prediction markets, which let users place wagers on outcomes ranging from federal elections to key economic indicators, have seen a surge in mainstream user adoption in recent years, but have also drawn increased attention from regulators over market manipulation and compliance risks. Both Kalshi and its top competitor Polymarket have reported a rise in unusual, potentially manipulative trading activity in recent months, pushing platforms to upgrade their monitoring systems and take stricter action against rule-breakers.

    Industry observers note the Kalshi ruling underscores the mounting compliance burden facing prediction markets as they edge closer to becoming mainstream financial products. U.S. regulators have already signaled that platforms will be held to stricter conduct and oversight standards as the industry matures, particularly for markets tied to high-stakes political and economic events.

  • US futures fall and oil prices surge after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

    US futures fall and oil prices surge after US hits Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz

    Global financial markets swung sharply on Monday after U.S. forces carried out the first direct military action against Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz in a month, ending a weeks-long lull in regional tensions and stoking new fears of broader conflict in the oil-rich Middle East.

    The targeted strike, which came on Sunday, has upended recent market calm that had begun to reduce the geopolitical risk premium baked into global crude prices. As of early Monday trading, U.S. stock futures pointed to clear downward momentum: futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average each dropped 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped a more modest 0.1%. European markets followed the negative trend, with Germany’s DAX index falling 0.8% to 26,364.99 and France’s CAC 40 edging slightly lower to 8,399.55. British markets were closed for a national bank holiday, and Asian markets finished the trading day mixed. The U.S. dollar edged down slightly against the Japanese yen, falling to 159.72 yen from 160.10 yen, while the euro ticked up modestly to $1.1602 from $1.1580.

    The most dramatic market movement came in the energy sector, where crude prices surged in response to renewed geopolitical risk near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass daily. International benchmark Brent crude jumped 3.4% to reach $91.10 per barrel, while U.S. domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.6% to trade at $86.40 per barrel. Stephen Innes, a strategist at SPI Asset Management, noted that the strike shattered the quiet that had allowed traders to start rolling back geopolitical risk pricing. “The Middle East had finally gone quiet enough for oil traders to start sanding some of the war premium out of crude,” Innes wrote in a market note. “Then Sunday arrived, with a reminder that quiet in the Strait of Hormuz is not the same as peace.”

    Along with the geopolitical shock, the Trump administration has rolled out new economic measures targeting Iran, amplifying market concerns over the potential for further escalation of hostilities that could disrupt global energy supplies. For U.S. consumers, the price jump has already translated to record-high fuel costs this month: AAA data shows the national average gasoline price has stayed above $4 per gallon every single day in August, marking the most expensive August for gasoline on record. This milestone outpaces even the severe supply chain disruptions that pushed fuel prices higher during the COVID-19 pandemic in August 2022, creating additional widespread economic pressure on households both in the U.S. and around the globe.

    Not all equities moved downward on Monday. GameStop, the video game retail chain, saw its shares surge more than 5% in pre-market trading after the company released preliminary second-quarter earnings results that outperformed its year-ago performance. On the other hand, professional services firm Aon saw its share price dip slightly after the company announced it would acquire insurance broker USI Insurance Services from private equity firm KKR in a $17 billion deal that includes assumed debt.

    Beyond the immediate geopolitical shock, markets are also bracing for two key coming events: the release of U.S. August jobs data later this week, and a potential interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. July’s jobs report delivered an unexpected slowdown, with employers cutting 23,000 jobs, and revised Labor Department data later slashed an additional 103,000 jobs from May and June payrolls. The Fed, meanwhile, signaled its continued commitment to lowering inflation in a high-profile speech Friday by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming, even acknowledging that the policy would likely bring short-term economic pain. Following Warsh’s remarks, the yield on the two-year Treasury note, which closely tracks investor expectations for Fed policy, jumped to 4.35% from 4.22% before the speech.

    The Fed’s potential rate hike sets up a new clash with President Donald Trump, who appointed Warsh and has repeatedly pushed publicly for lower interest rates to boost economic growth. Warsh reaffirmed Friday that the central bank will move away from giving explicit forward guidance to markets about future policy moves, while emphasizing that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s primary tool to pursue its dual mandates of stable low inflation and a strong labor market.

    In alternative asset trading, Bitcoin extended its monthly rally on Monday, climbing roughly 1% to $78,625. The leading cryptocurrency has already gained roughly 25% so far this month, outperforming many traditional asset classes amid ongoing market volatility.

  • AI and robotics drive an IPO boom in China as Shein lists in Hong Kong

    AI and robotics drive an IPO boom in China as Shein lists in Hong Kong

    A growing wave of initial public offerings (IPOs) is surging through China’s major financial hubs of Shanghai and Hong Kong, fueled by ravenous investor demand for artificial intelligence and advanced technology stocks, alongside a shifting preference for domestic listings over overseas exchanges. The trend is reshaping global capital markets, positioning China’s two leading exchanges as major global players in new share issuance this year.

    The latest high-profile offering to hit the market is fast fashion and e-commerce giant Shein, a China-founded brand that is set to make its trading debut Tuesday on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The blockbuster IPO is projected to raise $1.7 billion, ranking among the city’s largest new share sales of 2026. Shein’s decision to list in Hong Kong came after it weighed options in New York and London, reflecting a broader industry shift toward domestic venues for Chinese firms.

    This year’s IPO boom has already been marked by a string of massive technology offerings. In July, CXMT, China’s top domestic memory chip manufacturer, secured more than $8.6 billion through an IPO on Shanghai’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market, marking the second-largest offering in the bourse’s history and the second-biggest IPO on mainland China this year. CXMT’s shares exploded 466% higher on their first day of trading, riding a wave of demand for AI-capable semiconductor manufacturing. Just one month later, leading Chinese humanoid robot developer Unitree followed suit with its own Shanghai debut, where shares soared 460% on opening day.

    Industry analysts note that investor enthusiasm for AI and next-generation technology is the core engine driving the current market momentum. “The current IPO boom is powered by investor appetite for AI and robotics,” explained Ruiying Zhao, senior research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, adding that retail investor activity makes up a large portion of trading volume on Shanghai’s exchange.

    Perris Lee, head of APAC equity capital markets for ION Analytics, noted that CXMT’s landmark offering carries broader strategic implications for China’s technology ecosystem. CXMT, founded in 2016, saw revenue surge more than 700% year-over-year to 50.8 billion yuan (approximately $7.5 billion) in the first quarter of 2026, driven by skyrocketing demand for AI-grade memory chips. Lee said the successful IPO “placed China in a strategically significant position in tech manufacturing related to AI” and serves as clear evidence of the country’s progress toward its goal of technological self-sufficiency.

    Data from financial data platform LSEG confirms the scale of this year’s IPO boom. Total proceeds from IPOs and secondary listings on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges have already surpassed $54 billion so far in 2026, outstripping 2025’s full-year total of more than $46 billion. Combined, the two Chinese exchanges account for roughly 21% of global IPO proceeds this year, ranking second globally only behind the U.S.-based Nasdaq, which holds a 55% global share. Nasdaq’s leading position was boosted by SpaceX’s $75 billion mega-IPO in June, which cemented the U.S. exchange as the world’s largest IPO market for 2026. To access international capital while adhering to China’s restrictions on foreign investment in mainland exchanges, many Chinese firms pursue parallel listings in Hong Kong that are open to global investors.

    A key factor driving the shift toward domestic listings is tightening regulatory scrutiny on both sides of the U.S.-China relationship in recent years. Chinese firms operating in strategically critical sectors such as advanced technology now face far higher barriers to listing on U.S. exchanges, pushing many to pursue offerings closer to home. Beyond regulatory hurdles, domestic IPOs also offer a faster path to going public, noted Howie Farn, capital markets partner at international law firm Freshfields.

    Beyond semiconductors and robotics, other high-tech Chinese firms have also seen strong investor demand for their Hong Kong IPOs this year, including Apple supplier Luxshare Precision Industry and Zhongji Innolight, a leading manufacturer of optical transceivers for AI data centers. The pipeline of future offerings remains robust, with two more major Chinese robotics firms, AGIBOT and Deep Robotics, already planning IPOs in Shanghai or Hong Kong in the coming months.

    Despite the widespread market enthusiasm, some industry observers warn of growing risks, including the potential for an AI investment bubble that has already shown early signs of correction. After record oversubscriptions and massive first-day gains, a number of newly listed tech firms have seen their share prices retreat sharply from debut-day peaks. As of last Friday, Unitree’s share price had dropped more than 40% from its all-time high set on opening day.

    Zhao from S&P Global notes that the same valuation questions worrying U.S. AI investors are now taking hold in China. “The critical question remains: is the AI sentiment enough?” she said. “For a durable market cycle, investors will demand sustainable revenue, visible profit margins, and realistic valuations.”

    The global AI investment frenzy has also diverted risk appetite away from non-tech IPOs like Shein. Jacob Cooke, CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, explained that “the AI investment cycle is absorbing much of the risk appetite that would have otherwise flowed to a company like Shein.” Shein’s IPO values the company at roughly $27 billion, only a fraction of its peak valuation several years ago. That drop in valuation also partially stems from new trade restrictions imposed by the U.S. and EU that eliminate de minimis tax exemptions for small imported packages, cutting into Shein’s core cross-border business model.

  • China’s factory activity contracts in August despite an uptick in export demand

    China’s factory activity contracts in August despite an uptick in export demand

    HONG KONG, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) — After five consecutive months of contraction, China’s manufacturing sector saw a notable incremental improvement in August, with key indicators coming in better than market forecasts, lifted by unexpectedly strong global demand for Chinese exports, official data released Monday shows.

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a closely watched gauge of factory activity — edged up to 49.8 in August from July’s reading of 49.2. While the figure remains below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, it outperformed the median expectation of 49.3 from a survey of economists by major financial news outlets.

    The monthly PMI survey tracks a broad range of manufacturing metrics, and several key sub-indexes moved back into expansion territory in August, signaling broad-based improvement across the sector. The production sub-index rose to 50.4 from 49.1 in July, while the overall new orders sub-index climbed to 50.6 from 48.5. Most notably, the new export orders sub-index improved to 50.1 from July’s 49.6, crossing into expansion for the first time in three months and confirming solid global demand for Chinese goods.

    “Manufacturing activity rebounded thanks to strong export demand,” Nguyen Hoang Nam, a China economist at London-based independent research firm Capital Economics, wrote in a Monday research note. Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the NBS, also noted in an official statement that the August PMI results reflect broad incremental improvement across China’s overall economy.

    This latest uptick in factory activity aligns with recent export data that shows Chinese shipments have maintained double-digit growth through the first half of the year. Chinese exports surged nearly 24% year-on-year in July, following an 18% overall expansion across the first seven months of 2025. Multiple drivers are behind this strong export performance, economists say.

    First, the global boom in artificial intelligence development has spurred massive demand for high-tech Chinese exports, particularly semiconductors and related manufacturing components. Second, sustained elevated global energy prices stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have accelerated global adoption of electric vehicles, and Chinese EV manufacturers have captured a growing share of the growing global market. Third, demand for other green technology products, including solar panels and wind turbine components, has continued to accelerate this year after strong growth in 2024, adding further momentum to export gains.

    “Demand for green technologies was already accelerating last year and has continued to strengthen, providing an important additional boost to Chinese exports so far this year,” said Max Zenglein, senior economist for Asia Pacific at business research organization The Conference Board.

    Trade flows have also shifted in recent months, following the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House last year and the reimposition of broad punitive tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S.-China trade has declined as a result, but Chinese exporters have expanded market share in other regions, particularly the European Union and Southeast Asia, offsetting much of the lost sales to the U.S.

    Trade tensions between the two world’s largest economies are expected to be a top agenda item when Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping for high-level talks scheduled for late September, according to officials from both sides.

    Despite the bright spot of strong export growth, China’s economy still faces significant headwinds that are holding back broader expansion. Persistently sluggish domestic demand, driven largely by a years-long protracted slump in the country’s property sector, continues to weigh on overall economic growth. In the second quarter of 2025, China’s annual GDP growth came in at 4.3%, the slowest pace recorded in more than three years.

  • The US-Canada trade war in 5 charts

    The US-Canada trade war in 5 charts

    Eighteen months into Donald Trump’s second term in the White House, the long-simmering trade dispute between the United States and Canada remains deadlocked, with no clear path to resolution in sight. The conflict erupted shortly after Trump took office, when he launched a sweeping global tariff program that targeted Canada among the first wave of nations. Canada retaliated with proportionate reciprocal levies, and the dispute has escalated steadily in recent months, triggering widespread economic disruptions on both sides of the border.

    Last week, the US upped the ante by imposing an additional 50% tariff on roughly C$28 billion ($20 billion) of Canadian exports. In response, Canada announced a targeted “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation on the same value of American goods this Tuesday, set to take effect September 8. The new round of levies comes on top of existing US tariffs on Canada’s core economic sectors, including steel, aluminum, softwood lumber, and automobiles, deepening the strain on one of the world’s most integrated bilateral trade relationships.

    ### Uneven Regional Impacts
    The burden of the trade war falls disproportionately on specific regions in both countries. In Canada, provinces with large manufacturing and metal production sectors have borne the brunt of US tariffs. Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and a hub for auto manufacturing, has seen the worst damage from auto and steel levies: dozens of parts facilities and assembly plants have announced layoffs and production cuts, with an estimated tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs lost since early 2025. For Quebec, which produces steel, copper, and aluminum, metal exports plummeted 36% between February 2025 and 2026, pushing the sector’s employment down by 3.6%, according to July 2026 data from the province. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) notes that while Ontario and Quebec are the hardest hit, the new $20 billion round of US tariffs will impact every Canadian province to some degree, with British Columbia joining the two most affected provinces in facing the heaviest losses. Atlantic provinces, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Prince Edward Island remain the least exposed to the tariffs.

    While the far larger US economy has avoided widespread damage from Canada’s counter-tariffs, key swing states still face significant pain. Statistics Canada data identifies Ohio as the most affected state, with 12% of its total exports (valued at C$3.2 billion) set to face new Canadian tariffs. Ohio is followed by Illinois and Pennsylvania. Steel and washing machine tariffs will hit Ohio particularly hard, while Illinois, home to farm equipment giant John Deere, will see levies on agricultural and construction machinery. Scotiabank economist Derek Holt observes that Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are deliberately targeted at swing states that will determine congressional control in the upcoming US midterm elections.

    ### Shifting Trade Flows and Mixed Economic Outcomes
    Decades of free trade and geographic proximity have left Canada heavily dependent on the US market, with more than 70% of all Canadian exports heading south of the border. But the ongoing trade war has already pushed Canadian businesses to diversify their export destinations, aligning with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s goal to double non-US exports over the next decade. Bank of Canada data confirms that Canadian exports to countries other than the US have grown steadily since Trump’s January 2025 inauguration.

    Small businesses have been among those adapting to the new landscape. Matteo Sgaramella, owner of Toronto-based menswear brand Outclass, told the BBC he has shifted marketing efforts from New York to Paris, where European consumers and retailers have embraced Canadian goods amid the trade dispute. “We’re kind of seen as the one country that’s kind of standing up to the Americans right now,” Sgaramella explained, noting that consumer reception in Europe has exceeded expectations. But for large manufacturing sectors in Ontario that are deeply integrated into cross-border supply chains, diversification remains out of reach. A recent Canadian Chamber of Commerce report flagged three Ontario urban regions — Oshawa, London, and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo — as particularly vulnerable, writing that “growth in exports outside the US has been limited or insufficient to offset broader weakness in trade activity and local economic conditions.”

    Despite the ongoing conflict, some recent Canadian economic indicators have beaten expectations. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Canada hit C$96.8 billion in 2025, the highest annual inflow since 2007. Second-quarter 2026 GDP grew by 3.3%, driven by rising non-US exports and domestic investment, which has eased near-term recession fears. The Canadian government is doubling down on attracting global capital: Carney’s administration will host the first-ever Canada Investment Summit in Toronto this September, bringing together hundreds of major investors, CEOs, and business leaders.

    Average US effective tariff rates on Canadian goods have also climbed sharply in recent weeks. Prior to the latest 50% levies, Canada held the lowest average effective tariff rate among major US trade partners at 2.9% in June 2026. That figure has nearly doubled to 5.7%, putting it above Mexico and approaching the 6.2% rate applied to UK goods. China still faces the highest average US tariffs at roughly 20.5%. Prime Minister Carney has pointed out that Canada still maintains lower tariff rates than most US trade partners, but the rapid upward trend has alarmed Canadian business leaders.

    ### Labor and Consumer Costs on Both Sides
    The trade war has already left a clear mark on employment and household costs. A joint analysis from the Canadian American Business Council (CABC) warns that a full collapse of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) would cost tens of thousands of jobs across both countries, concentrated in tariff-exposed manufacturing sectors heavily reliant on cross-border trade. Bank of Canada data shows 55,000 Canadian manufacturing jobs were lost between January 2025 and January 2026, though employment has grown in Canadian sectors not exposed to US tariffs. If the new 50% US tariffs remain in place, Calgary-based economist Trevor Tombe projects total Canadian job losses could reach 90,000.

    In the US, the non-partisan Center for American Progress estimates that Trump’s sweeping global tariffs have already cost tens of thousands of jobs in US manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing. For US consumers who keep their jobs, tariffs have translated directly to higher prices for everyday goods. The US Tax Foundation calculates that the average American household will pay $840 more per year for consumer goods due to Trump’s tariffs on trade partners including Canada. While Canada designed its counter-tariffs to target industrial inputs rather than consumer goods to protect household budgets, economists note that higher input costs for US-sourced industrial supplies will eventually push up retail prices for Canadian consumers as well.

  • Major NSW developer Bathla Group plunges into administration owing $3.2bn

    Major NSW developer Bathla Group plunges into administration owing $3.2bn

    Australia’s property and construction sector has faced another major disruption, with New South Wales-based developer The Bathla Group entering voluntary administration earlier this week after failing to resolve $3.2 million in outstanding debts. The collapse has immediately thrown hundreds of workers into uncertainty, with administrators standing down all on-site staff just days after the company filed for insolvency protection, after a request for emergency government financial support was rejected by state authorities.

    In a public statement published on the company’s official website, Bathla Group CEO Robert Loader framed the decision to appoint administrators as a proactive step to protect the interests of all involved stakeholders. Loader pointed to a combination of overlapping market pressures that pushed the firm into financial distress, noting a sustained downturn in residential property sales, falling market values across New South Wales, and skyrocketing construction input costs that eroded profit margins over the past 18 months. Despite the insolvency filing, Loader emphasized the company’s commitment to working alongside administrators to advance the firm’s unfinished housing projects in Western Sydney, a region grappling with a severe chronic housing shortage that has pushed home prices and rental costs to record highs.

    The company appointed five insolvency specialists from global advisory firm Teneo – Stephen Longley, Rebecca Gill, Daniel Walley, Adam Colley and Andy Scott – to take over full operational and financial control of the Bathla Group. In a formal administration notice, a Teneo spokesperson outlined the firm’s immediate priorities: stabilizing the group’s fragmented operations, coordinating with secured lenders, and prioritizing support for furloughed workers while advancing work on unfinished residential projects. The advisory firm has already launched urgent negotiations with the group’s creditor banks to secure short-term funding that would allow construction activity to resume, in a bid to avoid leaving hundreds of future home buyers without the properties they have already contracted to purchase.

    New South Wales Premier Chris Minns has pushed back on calls for immediate taxpayer-funded support for the struggling developer, saying that the state government cannot commit public funds without full transparency into the company’s complex financial structure. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, Minns emphasized that any public money allocated to the firm would come from NSW taxpayers, and the government cannot approve large sums of funding on an accelerated 12 to 24-hour deadline. “It is not my money, it is the taxpayers’ of New South Wales, and I can’t commit it lightly,” Minns said. While he stopped short of ruling out all forms of government assistance in the future, noting that the government is committed to supporting both contracted workers and home buyers waiting for completion of their properties, he said the state will wait for the insolvency process to unfold over the coming week before making any formal decision on support. The collapse marks the latest in a string of Australian property developer failures this year, driven by high interest rates, rising construction costs, and slowing housing demand across most of the country.

  • What tariffs will really cost Canadians and Americans

    What tariffs will really cost Canadians and Americans

    The long-simmering trade conflict between the United States and Canada has entered a sharp new phase, with tit-for-tat tariff announcements from both nations deepening economic friction between the North American neighbors. The escalation traces back to US President Donald Trump’s revived hardline trade agenda after his return to the White House, which has reignited cross-border economic tensions that had previously been held in check.

    The latest round of retaliation came after Trump threatened to double existing tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles, lifting the rate from 25% to 50% effective January 1, 2027. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney implemented new reciprocal import taxes on a wide range of American goods, though Ottawa has not yet matched Trump’s proposed 50% auto tariff to date.

    The automotive industry, one of the most interconnected sectors across North American borders, faces the most significant risk if Trump’s threatened auto tariffs take effect. Integrated supply chains for passenger vehicles, trucks, and parts span the US, Canada, and Mexico, creating a tightly linked manufacturing ecosystem that has already been strained by previous import taxes. Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics, notes that up until now, car dealerships have absorbed the bulk of increased costs from earlier tariffs to avoid passing hikes directly to consumers. But that buffer is disappearing. “The recently threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, trucks, and car parts would feed through to consumer prices more readily than before,” Yaros explained. He added that higher import costs would likely push manufacturers to double down on producing high-margin luxury vehicles, SUVs, and pickup trucks, which could tighten supply for affordable new cars and drive up prices in the used vehicle market.

    Beyond the auto sector, construction and building materials have been a core flashpoint in the latest escalation. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and lumber were already in place before this week’s moves, but Canada has now raised its tariffs on US metals to match Washington’s 50% rate. Carney has also extended import taxes to American plywood, lumber, and even construction fasteners like timber screws. For building contractors that rely on cross-border imports, these higher costs will almost certainly be passed to consumers, pushing up the price of new home construction and renovation projects.

    The “lumber wars” between the two countries, a decades-long dispute over softwood timber used in residential construction, are once again flaring up. Data from a 2025 US Congressional report shows that the US imported $23 billion worth of wood products in 2024, with nearly half of that volume coming from Canada. On the American side, Bill Owens, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, has called on the Trump administration to exempt construction materials from new tariffs, pointing to the ongoing national housing affordability crisis. “Building material tariffs heighten market uncertainty, strain supply chains and increase construction costs,” Owens said. Canadian forest product industry groups confirm that the new duties will raise costs for businesses and consumers on both sides of the border.

    A distinctive feature of this latest round of tariff escalation is that Canada has intentionally targeted widely available consumer goods rather than exclusively focusing on industrial raw materials. Canadian tariffs now apply to American carpets, washing appliances, furniture, refrigerators, and even tableware. Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, explained that Carney’s strategy is designed to minimize harm to Canadian households by targeting goods that are easily substituted with domestic alternatives. “Like hair care products, you really can just buy that domestically instead,” Saunders said, noting that the selected goods are highly fungible, allowing consumers to shift to Canadian suppliers without dramatic disruption.

    Still, the trade war has already altered consumer choices and hit industry on both sides. Last year, most Canadian provinces implemented bans on US alcohol imports in retaliation for earlier tariffs, and the American Wine and Spirits Institute reported that US alcohol exports to Canada dropped by more than 70% following the ban. While Carney had asked provinces to lift the ban during stalled trade talks, the collapse of negotiations means restrictions are set to return. Only Saskatchewan and Alberta currently allow US alcohol sales, and Saskatchewan has announced a 50% tariff on imported American alcohol that will take effect September 8, aligned with the rollout of Canada’s broader new tariffs. Political calls for “buy Canadian” campaigns have already resonated with consumers, Saunders added, leaving a lasting mark on the US alcohol export sector.

    While higher consumer prices are the most widely discussed impact of the tariff dispute, economists warn that job losses and reduced business investment could pose a greater threat to household financial security. Cross-border businesses face tangled new trade rules and sharply higher input costs, and the persistent uncertainty created by the escalating conflict is likely to delay planned investments and slow job creation across both countries. For small and medium-sized export-dependent businesses, the new 50% tariffs could be catastrophic. For example, a custom furniture maker in British Columbia that relies on access to the US market could be forced to close entirely under the new duties, Saunders noted. Canada’s forest industry, which employs nearly 200,000 workers across the country, has called on the federal government to boost domestic demand for Canadian timber through new federal housing programs, but industry leaders admit that “no support package can replace reliable access to our largest export market.”

    For American consumers, the immediate impact of this latest round of tariffs on overall cost of living will be marginal. The Budget Lab at Yale, which tracks the economic impact of US federal policy, estimates that the new Canadian tariffs will add an average of just $3 per year in extra costs for US households. But that figure rises dramatically when considered alongside Trump’s broader global trade agenda, particularly ongoing tariff disputes with China. When all trade conflicts are factored in, the average American household faces roughly $1,000 in additional annual costs from tariffs. “It’s hard to view this particular instance with Canada in isolation because we’ve had similar interactions with a range of other countries, all of which makes doing business harder. It’s just another in a series of tariff shocks,” said John Iselin, associate director at the Yale Budget Lab.

    Beyond immediate price and job impacts, the escalating tariff row also casts new uncertainty over the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trilateral free trade deal that has governed North American commerce since 2020. Both Canada and Mexico have proposed extending the existing agreement for an additional 16 years, but the Trump administration has refused to renew the deal in its current form. While the USMCA remains in effect today, ongoing tariff tensions are derailing near-term renewal talks, creating long-term uncertainty for cross-border businesses and integrated supply chains across the continent.