Global Pulse

分类： business

  • India’s ‘blue gold’ starts a new drinks industry

    India’s ‘blue gold’ starts a new drinks industry

    For generations of Indian farmers across the Deccan Plateau, the spiky, hardy agave Americana plant served only one purpose: a low-maintenance, impenetrable natural fence to keep wild animals away from valuable food crops. To them, it was nothing more than a stubborn, valueless weed growing along property lines. Today, this native desert plant is being rebranded as “blue gold,” unlocking unexpected new income streams for rural communities and laying the groundwork for India’s nascent homegrown agave spirits industry, tapping into a $15 billion global market long dominated by Mexico.

    The turning point for many smallholder farmers like Masapalli Venkatesh came in 2010, when traders began approaching rural landholders seeking to source wild agave for spirit production. Venkatesh, who previously grew tomatoes, peanuts, and corn on his 10-acre Kandukur farm, quickly transformed into a regional agave aggregator, coordinating a network of villagers and farmers across a 100-kilometer range to meet growing demand from domestic distilleries. “By combining the yields of multiple small holdings, I ensure a steady, high-volume supply that distilleries are willing to pay a premium for,” Venkatesh explained, turning what was once unused plant life into a reliable source of supplementary income.

    Harvesting agave for spirit production is a far more nuanced process than many outsiders realize. The critical component of the plant is its carbohydrate-dense core, called the piña for its resemblance to a large pineapple. Skilled harvesters must first strip away the plant’s sharp, spiky leaves to expose the core, but timing is everything: once the plant begins to bloom, it redirects all its stored sugar reserves to the flowering stalk in just a matter of days, leaving the piña completely depleted and useless for alcohol production. “Gatherers must accurately identify the exact pre-blooming window to harvest the plant at its absolute peak sugar capacity, making the timing of the harvest incredibly narrow,” noted Rakshay Dhariwal, founder of Indian craft distiller Maya Pistola Agavepura.

    The clock does not stop once harvesting is complete. To preserve sugar content and flavor, piñas must reach a processing facility to undergo sugar extraction within 24 hours of harvest. Any longer delay triggers uncontrolled fermentation and sugar rot, ruining the delicate flavor profile required for premium spirits. This logistical challenge is particularly acute in India, where wild agave grows in scattered patches across four states: Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Unlike Mexico’s centralized, large-scale agave plantations, Indian distillers rely on a decentralized network of local aggregators to source semi-wild plants growing on marginal lands and rural property boundaries.

    Despite these logistical hurdles, demand for agave spirits is surging across India. Industry insiders report the domestic market is growing at an annual rate of 31%, as domestic consumers grow more open to exploring craft spirits beyond India’s long-standing favorite, whisky. “It’s only been a few years now that India’s finally caught the tequila bug,” said Vikram Achanta, co-founder of 30 Best Bars India. “Producers are beginning to experiment with it seriously, and there’s a consumer base today that is far more open to exploring new spirits than before.” While agave spirits are unlikely to displace whisky as India’s top-selling spirit, Achanta notes that domestic producers are already carving out a unique niche, building an emerging Indian agave identity around the Deccan Plateau’s wild plants that sets their products apart from imported Mexican offerings. “It’s still early days, but they’re helping move the category from curiosity to something more credible,” he added.

    Desmond Nazareth, founder of Agave India, is widely recognized as the pioneer of India’s agave spirit sector, having launched the country’s first domestic agave spirit back in 2011, nearly a decade before the market began to develop. “What started as kitchen experiments eventually became India’s first craft agave distillery after nearly 12 years of research and experimentation,” Nazareth said. “We were making Indian agave spirit long before the market was ready for it. It was a craft business way ahead of its time.” Today, he is taking a data-driven approach to scaling the industry, using satellite imagery to map existing successful agave growing regions and identify new areas with matching environmental conditions. This careful planning is critical: agave takes between 9 and 13 years to mature, so a poor site selection can mean losing an entire decade of investment.

    A common concern around the emerging industry is whether growing demand will deplete India’s wild agave supplies, but agricultural expert Miguel Braganza says there is little immediate risk. For one, India’s domestic processing capacity remains extremely small, with just one commercial processing plant currently operating, owned by Nazareth’s Agave India. Additionally, wild agave is an exceptionally effective self-propagator. Over its 10 to 20-year lifespan, a single mother plant sends out long underground root runners that sprout genetically identical baby agaves every few feet, slowly growing into large, self-sustaining colonies without any human intervention. “So one plant can naturally turn into dozens of plants across an area without any human help,” Braganza explained.

    Not all Indian agave spirit brands rely on domestic wild agave, however. Entrepreneur Sree Harsha Vadlamudi, co-founder of tequila brand Loca Loka, argues that wild agave has inherent limitations for large-scale, standardized production. Unlike selectively bred farmed agave in Mexico, wild Indian agave is genetically inconsistent, leading to fluctuating sugar yields that make consistent alcohol output difficult to achieve. To avoid this issue, Loca Loka sources its blue agave from established plantations in Jalisco, Mexico, the only region in the world legally allowed to produce tequila. “We wanted to leverage the rich, iron-heavy red soil left behind by ancient volcanic eruptions in Jalisco, Mexico,” Vadlamudi said. “This unique terroir imparts a distinct flavour profile to the agave that cannot be replicated by growing the same seeds in Indian soil.” Mexico’s large-scale commercial operations also benefit from modern technological investments, including drones and artificial intelligence systems that monitor crop health, track piña growth, and pinpoint the ideal harvest window – resources that remain out of reach for most emerging Indian producers.

    While Nazareth acknowledges that building a competitive, large-scale agave industry in India will take decades of patient investment, he remains optimistic about the sector’s long-term potential. “India could absolutely become a major agave economy,” he said. “The Deccan Plateau alone has millions of acres suitable for cultivation. We could theoretically rival Mexico if there’s long-term vision and patience.”

  • Argentina’s inflation slows to 8-month low in a boost for President Milei

    Argentina’s inflation slows to 8-month low in a boost for President Milei

    BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Fresh economic data released Thursday has delivered a rare glimmer of good news for Argentine President Javier Milei, as the country’s inflation rate cooled for the second straight month in May, following nearly a year of unrelenting price hikes that threatened to erode the libertarian leader’s core policy progress.

    Government statistics agency INDEC reported that consumer prices climbed 2.1% in May compared to April, a figure that Economy Minister Luis Caputo celebrated as the lowest monthly inflation rate recorded in eight months. However, the annual inflation rate ticked upward slightly to 33.2% this May, a statistical shift driven by an unusually low 1.5% monthly inflation reading in May 2025, which marked a seven-year low at the time.

    Since that 2025 low, prices have remained persistently high, squeezing household budgets across the country and stoking widespread public discontent with Milei’s administration. The government is already grappling with overlapping crises: a string of high-profile corruption scandals, and a deep economic downturn hitting labor-heavy sectors including retail and manufacturing.

    Breaking down May’s price movements, communications services saw the steepest increase at 3.4%, driven by rising phone and internet bills. Education costs followed close behind, while food prices accelerated 2.5% year-over-year, continuing to put pressure on low- and middle-income households.

    Beyond the inflation data, the Milei administration secured another vote of confidence from global markets this week: major credit ratings agency S&P Global announced late Wednesday it had upgraded Argentina’s sovereign credit rating to stable B-, up from the CCC tier widely considered to signal high risk of sovereign default. The upgrade cited the government’s consistent track record of meeting debt repayment obligations.

    Milei publicly celebrated the dual wins on social media, sharing the INDEC inflation report and praising Caputo — who goes by the nickname “Toto” — with the enthusiastic comment, “Let’s goooooo Toto!”

    While the credit upgrade still leaves Argentina well below investment grade status, it marks a key step forward for Milei’s long-term policy goal of restoring the crisis-prone Argentine economy’s access to global capital markets. It has been six years since Argentina defaulted on its foreign debt for the ninth time in the country’s modern history.

    Milei took office in late 2023 on a promise to crush Argentina’s long-running sky-high inflation and reverse decades of chronic fiscal deficits. More than two years into his term, his sweeping austerity and deregulation agenda has delivered tangible progress: the country has posted a rare budget surplus, won over skeptical international investors, and brought annual inflation down from the 200% peak it hit when he first took office to the current 33% reading.

    Yet significant headwinds remain that threaten to undermine Milei’s agenda. Even with slowing inflation, the cost of living in the capital Buenos Aires is now comparable to major European capitals, and price growth continues to outpace real wage gains for most workers. Unemployment has crept upward as thousands of workers have been laid off from domestic industries that cannot compete with a flood of cheap imported goods.

    Compounding economic pressures, corruption scandals — which Milei vowed to eliminate when he campaigned for office — have eroded public support even as the administration cuts funding for core public services including education, health care and social assistance.

    The most recent controversy involves Milei’s top aide and cabinet chief Manuel Adorni, who is currently under investigation for alleged illicit enrichment. Investigators are probing Adorni’s lavish travel, including an all-cash luxury trip to Aruba, and high-value real estate purchases that appear out of line with his modest public salary. On Wednesday, Adorni admitted to hiding $500,000 in undeclared savings and unreported cryptocurrency investments, deepening the political scandal.

  • Elon Musk’s SpaceX valued at nearly $1.8tn ahead of record share sale

    Elon Musk’s SpaceX valued at nearly $1.8tn ahead of record share sale

    Elon Musk’s aerospace and artificial intelligence firm SpaceX has secured $75 billion in pre-initial public offering (IPO) funding from global financial institutions, positioning the company for what is projected to be the highest-valued public stock debut in history when trading opens Friday on the Nasdaq exchange.

    In an official filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), SpaceX confirmed it sold newly issued shares at a fixed price of $135 apiece, matching the valuation estimate the company released publicly last week. At this share price, the company’s total market capitalization upon listing will reach nearly $1.8 trillion.

    The landmark valuation carries historic personal ramifications for Musk, already the world’s wealthiest individual. If the $1.8 trillion valuation holds after trading opens, Musk will become the first person in recorded history to amass a personal net worth exceeding $1 trillion.

    While the final opening share price will be determined by open market auction dynamics, industry observers are already predicting overwhelming investor demand for SpaceX stock. Interest from both large institutional investment funds and individual retail investors is widely expected to outpace supply of available shares, which could push the traded price above the $135 pre-IPO level.

    Multiple Wall Street analysts have already set bullish target prices for the stock that exceed the $135 baseline. Global financial services firm Oppenheimer, for example, released a research note Thursday projecting SpaceX’s share price will climb to $190 once public trading is underway. If the share price holds at or above $135, SpaceX will immediately rank among the top 10 most valuable publicly traded companies in the world.

    Market analysts also note that SpaceX’s IPO is being closely watched as a critical test case for other large unlisted technology firms eyeing public offerings in 2025. Leading artificial intelligence developers Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which currently carry private valuations approaching $1 trillion, have publicly confirmed they are on track to launch their own IPOs later this year. The outcome of SpaceX’s debut will likely set a precedent for market appetite for large high-growth private tech companies going public.

  • Zelle to expand peer-to-peer payment service to India this year

    Zelle to expand peer-to-peer payment service to India this year

    Nearly a decade after its domestic launch in the United States, popular peer-to-peer bank transfer platform Zelle is set to break into its first overseas market, announcing plans to launch in India by the end of 2025, parent network operator Early Warning Services (EWS) confirmed last week in a press statement from New York.

    EWS leaders framed India as the logical first stepping stone for Zelle’s global rollout, pointing to deep cross-border financial ties between the South Asian nation and the U.S. Data from the Reserve Bank of India shows that nearly one-third of all annual remittances received by Indian households originate from American-based senders, a huge existing market that Zelle aims to serve more efficiently and affordably than existing options. The company also confirmed that the India launch is just the first phase of its broader global growth strategy, with additional international market entries planned for the coming years.

    To support this cross-border expansion, EWS announced a parallel new initiative: the development of ZelleUSD, a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin that will act as the foundational financial infrastructure for the platform’s global operations. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies tied to the value of a fiat currency, in this case the U.S. dollar, that reduce the volatility common to other digital assets and streamline cross-border transaction settlement.

    Since its launch nine years ago, Zelle has rapidly become one of the most widely used domestic money transfer tools in the U.S., allowing consumers and small business owners to send and receive funds directly from linked bank accounts in real time, often with no additional fees. EWS reports that total transaction volume on the platform hit $1.2 trillion in 2025, cementing its position as a major player in the U.S. fintech ecosystem.

    However, Zelle’s growth story has been marred by persistent controversy around weak fraud protections and a rising tide of unauthorized transfers. For years, the platform faced growing regulatory scrutiny over these issues, culminating in a high-profile lawsuit filed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in December 2024. That case was ultimately dismissed with prejudice in March 2025, after a leadership shift at the CFPB following the change in U.S. presidential administration, which saw the new leadership drop a wide range of enforcement actions against financial institutions.

    The regulatory pressure on Zelle has not disappeared entirely. A separate lawsuit with nearly identical fraud and consumer protection allegations, brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, remains active and is currently proceeding through the New York state court system. The outcome of that case could still have significant implications for the platform’s domestic operations and future expansion plans.

    EWS, the entity that oversees the Zelle network, is a jointly owned venture backed by seven of the largest banking institutions in the United States, including industry giants JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo.

  • Europe’s central bank raises rates to fight inflation from Iran war, the Fed to decide next week

    Europe’s central bank raises rates to fight inflation from Iran war, the Fed to decide next week

    FRANKFURT, Germany — In a landmark policy shift triggered by the economic fallout of the ongoing Iran conflict, the European Central Bank (ECB) has become the first major global central bank to lift interest rates to counter surging inflation fueled by skyrocketing oil prices. The decision on Thursday puts the ECB ahead of next week’s highly anticipated rate-setting gatherings of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, as central bankers worldwide grapple with the dual challenge of taming price growth and protecting fragile economic expansion.

    The ECB’s 25-basis-point increase lifts its benchmark policy rate from 2% — a level held steady for 12 months — to 2.25%. The move comes in direct response to a sharp spike in global crude prices triggered by Iran’s disruption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil and fuel trade. The strait has remained closed to most commercial vessel traffic for 103 days as of the ECB’s announcement.

    Global benchmark Brent crude traded around $93 per barrel on Thursday, a roughly 27% jump from the $73 per barrel recorded on the eve of the outbreak of the Iran war. The energy price shock has already pushed eurozone inflation to 3.2% in May, well above the ECB’s 2% medium-term target. Higher oil and fuel costs feed directly into price increases for gasoline, diesel, cooking gas, heating oil and a wide range of petroleum-derived products, driving up overall consumer prices. The rate hike is designed to cool consumer and business demand, easing upward pressure on prices as energy costs surge.

    But the ECB’s policy move balances inflation concerns against a backdrop of lackluster eurozone economic growth, leading many market analysts to forecast the increase will be a one-off adjustment rather than the start of a prolonged tightening cycle. The step is widely interpreted as a proactive signal to financial markets that the central bank is committed to preventing inflation from spiraling out of control.

    Speaking at a post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that future policy decisions will remain contingent on evolving economic data, particularly the duration and magnitude of elevated energy prices. “We are well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the war, and we will closely monitor the situation and follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach,” Lagarde stated, adding that the bank is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.” She also warned that inflation would likely climb further over the summer months and remain above the ECB’s target well into the first half of next year.

    The ECB’s action follows smaller rate increases from central banks in Australia and the Philippines since the Iran conflict began, and market attention is now turning to upcoming policy decisions from the world’s largest central banks. For the U.S. Federal Reserve, led by newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh — tapped for the role by President Donald Trump earlier this year — most economists expect policymakers to hold interest rates steady at next week’s meeting.

    Warsh publicly advocated for rate cuts last year, and Trump repeatedly criticized Warsh’s predecessor Jerome Powell for refusing to implement deeper rate reductions. But amid a post-war inflation surge that has pushed U.S. inflation above 4% — a three-year high — Trump and his administration have shifted their stance, now favoring keeping borrowing costs unchanged. Market observers expect the Fed to remove language from its post-meeting statement that previously signaled the next policy move would be a rate cut, clearing the way for a potential rate increase before the end of 2025 if inflation does not cool. Multiple Fed officials have already warned that sustained above-target inflation could force a rate hike by year’s end.

    Higher central bank benchmark rates ripple through the broader economy, pushing up borrowing costs for everything from home mortgages and corporate investment to government debt. By making credit more expensive, rate increases reduce overall demand for goods and services, which in turn eases upward pressure on prices.

    Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Bank, argued the ECB may only need one or two additional small hikes to keep inflation in check, as the current inflation surge may be less persistent than feared. Brzeski noted that consumers still grappling with the aftermath of post-pandemic inflation have little appetite to absorb further price increases, forcing businesses to absorb higher energy costs rather than pass them on to shoppers. “The pass-through of higher energy and input prices to final consumption will be limited due to a lack of ability and willingness of consumers to actually pay for these higher prices,” Brzeski explained in a emailed analysis.

    This report was compiled with additional reporting from Rugaber in Washington.

  • Ryanair investigated over charging parents to sit with children

    Ryanair investigated over charging parents to sit with children

    The UK’s top competition regulator has opened a formal probe into budget airline giant Ryanair over its policy of charging parents additional fees to sit alongside their children during flights, triggering a fierce public pushback from the carrier that has labeled the inquiry politically motivated and groundless.

    The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), the body responsible for enforcing UK consumer and competition rules, confirmed this month that it is examining whether Ryanair’s standard seat charges—an average of £8 per passenger per one-way trip—violate existing consumer protection legislation. Under Ryanair’s current terms of service, adult passengers traveling with children between the ages of 2 and 11 are required to reserve a paid “mandatory family seat” to sit with their minor travel companions, aligning with the airline’s own policy that requires guardians to be seated next to young children for the duration of a flight.

    A core focus of the CMA’s inquiry is whether Ryanair is wrongfully charging passengers to meet pre-existing safety and accessibility obligations laid out in global and UK aviation regulations. Regulators also noted that Ryanair stands out among major airlines operating out of UK airports as the only carrier that imposes these mandatory charges for family seating. Most other major airlines either automatically assign adjacent seats to families at no extra cost during the booking process or allow guardians to select seats next to children without charging additional fees.

    Ryanair has rejected all of the CMA’s preliminary implications, calling the investigation “bogus” and insisting that its family seating policy adheres fully to all applicable UK and aviation laws. The airline pushed back on the regulator’s description of its pricing structure, clarifying that adults only pay for one reserved seat when traveling with children, while up to four additional children on the same booking can reserve adjacent seats at no cost.

    Beyond defending its policy, Ryanair attacked the inquiry as a political distraction from the current Starmer government’s failure to eliminate Air Passenger Duty (APD), a tax that the airline argues drives up ticket prices for all travelers and suppresses growth across the UK’s aviation, tourism and broader national economy. The carrier said it is confident it will disprove the CMA’s claims over the course of the investigation.

    The CMA is also probing two additional potential consumer protection issues: whether the mandatory family seat fee is “drip-priced” — meaning it is only revealed to customers partway through the booking process, rather than disclosed upfront as part of the total advertised price. CMA Director of Consumer Protection Hayley Fletcher explained that these hidden extra charges can quickly erode the affordability of family summer holidays, a key concern as households across the UK continue to grapple with persistent cost of living pressures.

    “For the past year, we’ve told businesses to ensure their customers are shown the total price upfront – those who don’t face the very real possibility of action from the CMA,” Fletcher said, adding that the investigation is in its early stages and no final conclusion on whether Ryanair broke the law has been reached. If the CMA finds Ryanair violated consumer protection law, the regulator’s new enforcement powers allow it to levy fines of up to 10% of the airline’s global annual turnover.

    Leading UK consumer rights organization Which? has welcomed the CMA’s probe, noting that it has repeatedly raised alarms about Ryanair’s seating policies that separate families unless extra fees are paid, even for children as young as three years old. Rory Boland, Which? Travel Editor, called on Ryanair to proactively change its policy before the investigation concludes. “Ryanair doesn’t have to wait for the outcome of the CMA’s investigation, it could stop charging these unreasonable fees today and we would encourage them to do that,” Boland said.

    The investigation is part of a wider CMA initiative to reduce financial burdens on UK households by cracking down on unfair consumer pricing practices amid ongoing economic pressure.

  • Australian stocks fall as Middle East crisis fears rattle the market

    Australian stocks fall as Middle East crisis fears rattle the market

    Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, triggered by new United States military strikes on multiple Iranian targets, has roiled Australian financial markets, driving a sharp jump in global crude oil prices and pulling Australia’s benchmark stock index lower on Thursday as investors braced for potential further conflict.

    The Australian Securities Exchange’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 20.10 points, or 0.23%, at 8633.20, while the broader All Ordinaries index dropped by an identical 0.23% to settle at 8836.70, shedding 20.3 points. Against this broad market downturn, only four of the exchange’s 11 major industry sectors finished the trading session in negative territory, with losses in technology and large banking stocks offsetting gains for energy and healthcare equities. The Australian dollar bucked the downward trend, edging 0.14% higher to trade at 70.03 U.S. cents by market close.

    Tech stocks led the declines across the market. Leading accounting software firm Xero fell 3.58% to close at AU$74.07, logistics technology firm WiseTech Global dropped an additional 2.79% to AU$36.99, and data center operator NextDC plunged 4.23% to AU$14.50. The country’s four largest banking giants also weighed heavily on the benchmark index: Commonwealth Bank of Australia slipped 2.38% to AU$156.42, Westpac fell 2.57% to AU$34.50, while both National Australia Bank and ANZ Group dropped 1.79% to AU$35.68 and AU$33.80 respectively.

    The price surge in crude oil came as a direct response to the new U.S. military strikes, compounded by Iranian reports that it had intercepted two commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply. By the close of Australian trading on Thursday, Brent crude had risen to $US94.08, equal to around AU$134 per barrel.

    Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Group, noted that oil market volatility has remained muted so far, for three key reasons. First, he highlighted that former U.S. President Donald Trump has a well-documented pattern of stepping back from full escalation at the last moment. Second, any large-scale direct U.S. attack on Iran carries significant risk of Iranian retaliation targeting vulnerable energy infrastructure along the Persian Gulf, which would send global oil prices skyrocketing. Finally, Sycamore pointed out that Trump recently highlighted ongoing U.S. military escort operations that have already moved more than 100 million barrels of non-Iranian oil safely out of the region, keeping critical supply flowing through the strategic waterway.

    Even with relatively contained volatility in oil futures, Australian energy producers posted clear gains on the back of higher crude prices. Top Australian liquefied natural gas exporter Woodside Energy climbed 1.55% to AU$31.52, upstream oil and gas producer Santos rose 2.02% to AU$8.07, and fuel retailer Ampol added 0.30% to close at AU$36.77.

    Healthcare stocks emerged as another bright spot in an otherwise soft trading session. Biotech giant CSL rallied 4.16% to AU$107.23, medical imaging firm Pro Medicus gained 0.75% to AU$162.79, and medical device manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare closed up 0.22% at AU$31.77.

    Beyond the two outperforming sectors, several individual stocks posted notable moves. Retail chain operator Super Retail Group gained 0.73% to AU$12.35 after its annual shareholder day unveiled a new five-year strategic growth plan, which includes adding 110 new store locations to expand its national footprint to 900 stores, with a focus on under-served regional areas and expanding the product range of its discount auto brand Super Cheap Auto.

    In contrast, Southern Cross Media Group saw its shares slump 4.24% to AU$0.56 after parent company Seven West Media announced plans to cut between 250 and 300 full-time positions across its assets, which include the Seven television network, The West Australian newspaper and Southern Cross Austereo. The restructuring is aimed at delivering annual cost savings of between AU$145 million and AU$150 million.

    Infrastructure developer Lendlease was one of the day’s top large-cap gainers, jumping 4.58% to AU$2.74 after the firm announced that Nick O’Neil will take over as chief executive officer, while also reaffirming its full-year earnings guidance of 28 to 34 cents per share across its investment, development and construction divisions.

  • Minimum wage rise sparks warning of two more interest rate hikes

    Minimum wage rise sparks warning of two more interest rate hikes

    Starting July 1, more than one in five Australian workers will see their pay packets grow after the Fair Work Commission formalized a 4.75% increase to the national minimum award wage, a decision that has split economic experts over its impact on inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy trajectory.

    The adjustment lifts the hourly minimum wage from $24.95 to $26.44, or from $948 to $1004.90 per week, covering 2.8 million employees whose pay is set under modern awards rather than enterprise agreements. The announcement comes amid already shifting conditions in Australia’s labour market, recent data shows.

    New Commonwealth Bank analysis of current wage trends found a 0.8% quarterly wage increase pushed annual growth to 3.1% in May, holding steady even as official Australian Bureau of Statistics data recorded an unexpected 19,000 drop in employment and a small uptick in the unemployment rate in April. CBA senior economist Harry Ottley noted that wage growth has remained remarkably stable in recent months, with no definitive evidence that persistently high inflation has triggered a self-reinforcing wage-price spiral.

    “Right now, there is still no clear sign that higher inflation is translating into stronger permanent wages growth, with labour market conditions remaining relatively balanced,” Ottley explained. His team projects official May employment data, set for release in the coming days, will show a rebound of 23,000 new jobs, a signal the labour market has retained resilience against the pressure of already elevated interest rates and global economic volatility stemming from the Middle East conflict. Still, Ottley warned that rising unemployment points to emerging softness, with growth in hiring expected to stay muted through 2026 as the economy cools, pushing the unemployment rate to a peak of around 4.6%.

    The newly announced minimum wage increase will add fresh upward momentum to national wage growth, Ottley confirmed, with additional gains expected for public sector workers including New South Wales nurses in coming months, even as overall wage inflation remains contained for the time being.

    But other leading economists have raised sharp alarms over the size of the pay increase, which came in higher than many market forecasts. AMP economist My Bui warned that while the Fair Work Commission’s decision to prevent negative real wage growth for low-income workers is logically understandable, the sheer scale of the workforce affected creates meaningful inflation risk. Even though the hike is projected to add less than 0.6 percentage points to next year’s annual wage growth, Bui noted there is a significant risk that higher minimum wages will push pay demands across other private sector industries.

    “Wage pressures will add to already sticky services inflation, as businesses pass on higher labour and input costs, which have remained elevated amid rising goods prices,” she said. CreditorWatch chief economist Ivan Colhoun echoed that concern, pointing out that more than two-thirds of the workers impacted by the increase are concentrated in four labour-intensive sectors: retail, hospitality, healthcare and social assistance, and administrative and support services. For businesses already grappling with sky-high inflation, rising borrowing costs and a recent temporary jump in fuel prices, the new wage mandate will add significant new cost burdens.

    “While the larger than expected minimum wage increase will be welcome for the lowest paid, many businesses and the RBA are unlikely to be as happy,” Colhoun said. The inflation risk has led AMP to revise its interest rate forecast, with Bui now projecting two additional Reserve Bank rate hikes to counter inflationary pressure. Her baseline forecast puts the peak cash rate at 4.85% with a hike coming in November, though she warned there is a growing chance the next increase could come as early as July, rather than being delayed until later in the year.

  • SpaceX on cusp of record IPO that could make Musk a trillionaire

    SpaceX on cusp of record IPO that could make Musk a trillionaire

    SpaceX is on the brink of making Wall Street history, entering its final pricing phase on Thursday ahead of a Friday trading debut that is set to become the largest initial public offering ever recorded. The groundbreaking offering not only has the potential to catapult co-founder and CEO Elon Musk to unprecedented trillionaire status, but also sets the stage for a wave of tech and artificial intelligence public debuts in the coming months.

    Founded by Musk in 2002, the aerospace and rocket firm will begin trading on the Nasdaq exchange Friday morning, with market observers across the globe closely watching to see how Wall Street absorbs the blockbuster offering that could send ripples through global financial markets. In keeping with longstanding tradition for high-profile market debuts, Musk and other SpaceX executives are scheduled to ring the Nasdaq opening bell at the exchange’s Times Square headquarters in New York to mark the occasion.

    This IPO marks the largest financial gambit of Musk’s already storied career. Earlier this year, the billionaire folded two of his other major ventures — his AI startup xAI and his social media platform X, formerly Twitter — into SpaceX, including both assets in the public offering. The company is rolling out more than 555 million shares to investors at an expected price of $135 per share, a valuation that would land SpaceX firmly among Wall Street’s most valuable elite companies with a total market capitalization of roughly $1.8 trillion.

    The final price of the offering will be confirmed during pricing sessions Thursday, and widespread speculation has emerged that SpaceX could raise its target offer price. Bloomberg reports that the offering has already drawn investor demand for more than four times the number of available shares, signaling overwhelming early interest. In a break from typical IPO structures, 30% of all available shares have been reserved for retail investors — three times the standard allocation for individual small-scale investors, giving ordinary Musk supporters the opportunity to purchase a stake in the company.

    The entire success of the historic offering hinges largely on investor confidence in Musk’s reputation as a visionary tech entrepreneur. Following the IPO, Musk will hold three of the most powerful roles at the public company: chief executive, chief technology officer, and board chair. If the IPO performs as expected, it will create thousands of new millionaires and hundreds of new billionaires among current and former SpaceX employees, as well as early investors who backed the company across its nearly 25 years of private operation.

    Even with overwhelming early demand, the offering has split opinion on Wall Street. Many analysts and investors have voiced caution over the company’s financial outlook, noting that the $1.8 trillion valuation depends almost entirely on Musk delivering on a slate of ambitious, science fiction-level goals that rely on unproven technology. These projects include developing orbital space-based data centers and establishing crewed human settlements on Mars, both of which remain far from commercial viability.

    On paper, SpaceX’s growth trajectory is staggering: the company reported $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, but it also posted a net loss of $4.9 billion for the year, reflecting heavy ongoing investment in research and development for its next-generation projects. In its public IPO filing, SpaceX made an extraordinary long-term prediction that the company would eventually generate more than $28.5 trillion in annual revenue across its various operating markets. When it launches, the SpaceX IPO will easily surpass the 2019 Saudi Aramco public debut, which raised $29.4 billion and has held the title of the world’s largest IPO for more than six years. It also leads a wave of big tech and AI companies set to go public, with both OpenAI and Anthropic having already filed regulatory paperwork for their own market debuts expected to follow SpaceX.

  • ‘A little goes a long way’: New York’s candy stores sweeten economic gloom

    ‘A little goes a long way’: New York’s candy stores sweeten economic gloom

    Across the United States, plummeting consumer confidence has created a challenging operating environment for the nation’s retail industry, with many small and large businesses struggling to maintain stable revenue. However, in New York City and its surrounding suburbs, one unexpected niche segment is experiencing unexpected growth: independent candy stores.

    For third-generation business owner Mitchell Cohen, this expansion is no surprise. As the head of Economy Candy, Manhattan’s oldest continuously operating sweet shop located on the Lower East Side, Cohen has long observed a pattern: when economic times turn tough, consumers still carve out room in their budgets for affordable candy. His family’s business itself is a product of economic crisis – it first opened its doors in 1937, at the tail end of the Great Depression, originally as a hat and shoe repair shop. To earn extra income, Cohen’s grandfather added a small candy cart outside the storefront. When cash-strapped New Yorkers stopped spending on repair services, the business pivoted entirely to selling the low-cost treats that still had steady demand. Eighty-nine years later, Economy Candy remains a beloved neighborhood staple, still going strong despite decades of economic ups and downs.

    Recent economic data underscores the challenging broader retail landscape. While official April retail sales figures show a 4.9% year-over-year increase, a closely tracked consumer sentiment survey hit an all-time historic low in May, reflecting widespread anxiety over inflation and economic uncertainty. Candy store entrepreneurs echo Cohen’s analysis, pointing to candy’s low price point as a key advantage during economic downturns: unlike big-ticket purchases that consumers are increasingly likely to postpone, a small sweet is an accessible luxury almost anyone can afford.

    This dynamic aligns with the well-documented “lipstick effect,” an economic theory popularized in the early 2000s that holds that when consumers can’t afford large, expensive purchases, they will treat themselves to smaller, more affordable luxury items instead. For Kate Bolger, a former film producer opening a new candy store called The Village Confectionery in Sleepy Hollow, New York, this logic holds true. “Even when people are feeling the economic pinch, everyone can still partake in a little piece of candy,” she explained.

    Existing candy retailers are also expanding their footprints across the region. BonBon, an upscale confectionery brand founded in 2018 by three Swedish expats, now operates five locations across Manhattan and Brooklyn, plus a store in the Hamptons that opened last summer. The brand specializes in importing Swedish candy, which has grown rapidly in global popularity in recent years, driven by social media buzz and its commitment to strict all-natural ingredient standards. To keep overhead costs low, BonBon intentionally avoids high-rent main shopping avenues, instead opting for smaller storefronts on side streets that allow for lower rent and a cozier customer experience. With a focus on small, unique brand details – like staff uniforms inspired by a popular Stockholm restaurant – the chain is set to open a new location in Greenwich, Connecticut this summer. It is not alone in its U.S. expansion: major Swedish candy chain Candy King opened its first American outlet in Manhattan last December.

    Newer small independent operators are also finding success by adapting to local market needs. In Brooklyn’s Fort Greene neighborhood, Cat Cirino launched Candor Candy’s in March. To boost revenue, she offers a curated selection of pantry staples from local independent producers alongside her core candy inventory, including granola, rice, soft drinks and beef jerky. Cirino notes that candy also offers practical operational advantages for small retailers: it has a long shelf life, requires no temperature control, and the popular pick-and-mix model lets customers handle much of the self-serve process, cutting down on labor costs.

    That said, the sector is not immune to the economic pressures facing all U.S. retailers. Cohen points to rising wholesale costs driven by two key factors: longstanding U.S. import tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, and spiking global shipping costs tied to rising fuel prices stemming from geopolitical tensions. Even iconic American chocolate brand Hershey’s has been impacted: while the company is based in the U.S., it sources all cocoa beans from overseas, and a Hershey bar that cost Economy Candy 62 cents before the COVID-19 pandemic now costs over $1. Cohen adds that one of his longtime United Kingdom-based suppliers stopped shipping to the U.S. entirely after sustained losses from customs and currency fluctuations.

    Despite these headwinds, most candy store owners report growing sales, with many absorbing cost increases rather than passing the full burden on to consumers. For Cohen, the formula for success is simple: in uncertain economic times, a small, affordable sweet goes a long way toward lifting consumer moods – and keeping small businesses afloat.