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  • Many Ukrainian soldiers outraged over removal of defence minister, troops tell BBC

    Many Ukrainian soldiers outraged over removal of defence minister, troops tell BBC

    On Thursday, thousands of demonstrators filled central Kyiv’s streets, their anger simmering after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky removed the popular, reform-minded Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov in a sweeping cabinet reshuffle. The decision has split the country’s military community, sparked open accusations of authoritarian drift from critics, and raised urgent questions about the future of Ukraine’s military innovation agenda amid ongoing war with Russia.

    For many of Ukraine’s frontline soldiers and wounded veterans, the removal of the 35-year-old Fedorov feels like a personal betrayal. A disfigured infantry soldier, recovering from combat injuries ahead of scheduled reconstructive surgery, captured the widespread despair in a viral Telegram video. “I hope when I wake up after the anaesthetic, Fedorov will be back at the Ministry of Defence,” he said. “Otherwise, everything I was fighting for will have been in vain.”

    Maryna, an active-duty soldier who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid disciplinary action, called the decision a deliberate insult to all Ukrainian service members. “It is a blatant slap in the face to all service members,” she told reporters. “It is truly difficult to put this into words without venting in frustration.” Like many critics, she fears the reshuffle signals a growing authoritarian turn in Kyiv: “A dictatorship is already unfolding here, with its own petty tyrants who think they have caught God by the beard.”

    Military leadership has reportedly ordered rank-and-file soldiers to avoid public political commentary, forcing most serving personnel to speak only under pseudonym. Opinion even among soldiers is not uniform: Natasha, a frontline servicemember stationed near the Donbas front, noted that daily Russian multiple launch rocket system attacks on Ukrainian positions leave little bandwidth for political outrage over cabinet changes. Even so, she acknowledged widespread respect for Fedorov’s work, and blamed entrenched old-guard military leadership for his ousting. “If you can’t come to an agreement with the old fossils, they’ll eat you alive,” she said.

    That old guard, in the view of many of Fedorov’s supporters, is led by 60-year-old Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, a veteran officer shaped by the Soviet-era top-down military system. Once celebrated as a national hero for leading the 2022 defense of Kyiv, Syrskyi has become increasingly unpopular among frontline troops for his human-cost-heavy approach to warfare, earning him derogatory nicknames like “General 200” (a reference to the Soviet military code for combat casualties) and “The Butcher.” Still, some military insiders defend him: Andrii, a former frontline soldier now serving on the General Staff, argues there is currently no qualified replacement for Syrskyi’s experience leading large-scale combat operations.

    What is undeniable is that the rift between Fedorov and Syrskyi had grown unresolvable ahead of Zelensky’s decision. Zelensky himself acknowledged the two men could no longer even share a room, while Fedorov has openly blamed Syrskyi for systematically blocking all his military reform and modernization efforts. “It was snowballing. Everyone knew about it. Zelensky had to make a decision,” Andrii said.

    The generational and ideological clash between the two men encapsulates a broader divide running through modern Ukraine. Military analyst and former intelligence officer Ivan Stupak framed the divide in starkly technological terms: “Fedorov is an iPhone 16, Syrskyi is a telephone from the 1980s. You know, the same purpose but with different approaches.”

    Fedorov first rose to prominence as Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation, where he built a reputation as a relentless innovator committed to modernizing Ukraine’s public and military institutions. During his six-month tenure as Defense Minister starting in January 2026, he delivered a string of high-impact wins: he negotiated with Elon Musk to cut Russian frontline forces off from Starlink satellite internet, a move that disrupted Russian command and control and helped Ukrainian forces repel major Russian advances. He accelerated the integration of artificial intelligence and low-cost drone interception systems to defend Ukrainian cities from Russian drone attacks, and launched a sweeping bureaucratic overhaul of the Ministry of Defense to cut red tape and speed up weapons procurement. His signature “Army of Drones: Bonus” program, which offered frontline units financial incentives for destroying Russian equipment and personnel, was widely credited with boosting troop initiative and accelerating innovation in drone warfare, a capability that has allowed Ukraine to gain an edge over its much larger Russian adversary.

    But even before his removal, Fedorov faced deep institutional resistance from the decades-old military bureaucracy. Stupak described the Ministry of Defense as a “swamp” resistant to change: “It’s made of very solid material and it’s very difficult to establish new technologies because lots of people have been there for decades and they don’t share his vision of digitalisation.”

    Critics and observers now warn that Fedorov’s departure risks halting his ambitious modernization agenda entirely, despite Zelensky’s public assurances that reforms will continue. With autumn and winter approaching, Russia is widely expected to launch a new large-scale assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving the country more vulnerable without Fedorov’s leadership on drone and air defense innovation. Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Action Centre, called the decision a devastating setback for Ukraine’s war effort. “I’m very upset that all this progress, which was built by Fedorov, will be just destroyed and reversed in one of the most critical periods of the war,” she said. She also argued the move reveals a troubling authoritarian streak in Zelensky’s leadership, saying it sends a message that the president does not care about public opinion and rejects independent, effective leaders within his government: “That is very destructive for Ukraine.”

    The decision to oust Fedorov fits a pattern of Zelensky sidelining or removing popular, effective officials, leading many critics to accuse him of concentrating power and moving toward authoritarian rule. Stupak noted the irony: as a comedian before entering politics, Zelensky built his career lampooning the authoritarian, self-serving post-Soviet political elite. Now, Stupak says, he has adopted the very traits he once mocked: “He’s collected all the factors which were the subject for his jokes. Maybe it’s because he’s been in his position for seven years.”

    For activists like Kaleniuk, the recent street protests evoke a strong sense of deja vu. Exactly one year ago, massive anti-government protests – the first since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion – forced Zelensky to backtrack on a bill that would have gutted the power of two leading Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies. Today’s protesters are hoping for a similar reversal, even though Zelensky has already appointed acting Security Service head Yevhenii Khmara as interim defense minister.

    While current protests are smaller in scale than last year’s demonstrations, Kaleniuk says the stakes are far higher: “These events are even more dangerous, because they directly impact our war effort.”

    Maria Berlinska, founder of an NGO that trains volunteer aerial reconnaissance teams, summed up the widespread fear among reformists that even the most successful, loyal leaders are not safe from political sidelining. “You can become a key architect of the strategy of technological victory over the enemy,” she wrote in a Facebook post. “No matter how cool you are, it will not help you. At some point, you will simply be removed from the field.”

  • In East India, a Marian shrine draws in Christian, Hindu and Muslim pilgrims

    In East India, a Marian shrine draws in Christian, Hindu and Muslim pilgrims

    Nestled along the tree-lined banks of West Bengal’s Hooghly River, 50 miles north of state capital Kolkata, the 16th-century Basilica of the Holy Rosary—known locally simply as Bandel Church—has emerged as an unlikely beacon of interfaith harmony amid rising religious polarization across India. For 13 consecutive years, 28-year-old devout Hindu Rimpa Chowdhury has made a weekly pilgrimage to the shrine of Our Lady of Happy Voyage, the iconic statue of the Virgin Mary that draws thousands of cross-faith visitors each year. For Chowdhury and countless other non-Christian devotees, the church is far more than a historic Catholic site: it is a space of healing, community, and quiet peace that transcends religious boundaries.

    Decades of interfaith devotion to the shrine are rooted in what visitors call the power of the divine feminine, a shared belief that aligns Mary’s protective energy with the long-standing Bengali tradition of revering female goddesses as the universe’s primordial life force. The church’s history stretches back to the late 1500s, when Catholic Augustinian friars and Portuguese colonial traders settled the Bengal riverfront, tying Marian devotion to Portuguese imperial expansion by placing all regional outposts under Mary’s protection. The original 1599 structure was destroyed twice—first in a 1632 invasion of the Portuguese settlement, then later in a major earthquake—but local legend cemented Mary’s enduring reputation as a divine protector after her statue was recovered intact from the depths of the Hooghly River. In 1988, Pope John Paul II formalized the shrine’s spiritual significance by granting it status as a minor basilica.

    Today, the sprawling riverside grounds of the basilica serve as the core of a cross-faith community that spreads across nearby villages, many of which bear informal names honoring Marian apparitions ranging from Our Lady of Fatima to Our Lady of Good Health. Since the 1950s, Catholic nuns from five separate religious congregations have stewarded the shrine, prioritizing community outreach that serves people of all faiths while actively smoothing sectarian tensions. Their work spans far beyond spiritual care: Missionaries of Charity nuns founded by Mother Teresa (who visited Bandel Church in 1995, two years before her death) provide critical health services to surrounding local populations; the Auxilium Convent Sisters run a boarding school for underprivileged young girls, offering full education and support to help them live independently after graduation; and other congregations host retreats, counseling, and community education initiatives focused on women’s rights and tribal welfare.

    Father John Chalil, Bandel Church’s lead priest, explained that the region’s long history of religious coexistence laid the groundwork for this shared spiritual space. “In Bengal, the goddess is revered as the ultimate primordial force in the universe,” he said. “Devotees from all over India come here seeking sanctuary, and the nuns cater to their various needs.” Sister Nirmala, who has worked in spiritual ministry at Bandel for more than 15 years, added that religious identity has never stood in the way of devotion. “Religious differences have not interfered with people’s faith in Mary,” she said.

    This culture of pluralism faces growing pressure, however, as rising religious polarization and anti-Christian violence have spread across India since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took national power in 2014. Hindu nationalist vigilante groups have increasingly targeted Christian communities, disrupting prayer services, vandalizing church properties, and assaulting clergy and nuns on unsubstantiated claims of forced conversion of Hindus. The United Christian Forum, a New Delhi-based human rights coalition advocating for religious minority rights, recorded 831 anti-Christian attacks across India in the past year alone. AC Michael, the forum’s national coordinator, said the violence has evolved from isolated local incidents to a systemic, networked campaign of persecution.

    For decades, West Bengal was a relative safe haven for religious minorities compared to other Indian states, but the recent election of a BJP state government has sparked growing anxiety among local faith communities, and anti-Christian attacks in the region have already begun to rise. While Bandel itself has not yet experienced large-scale targeted violence against religious minorities, nearby areas have seen repeated communal clashes linked to political and religious events. In July of this year, a mob stormed a newly built church south of Kolkata, threatening congregants and destroying religious symbols. Mother Teresa’s Missionaries of Charity, which operates service programs in the region, has also been a high-profile target of Hindu nationalist scrutiny: in 2021, India’s Ministry of Home Affairs revoked the organization’s operating license over unproven conversion claims, only reversing the decision after widespread public pushback.

    Despite these growing threats, the nuns who steward Bandel Church say they remain committed to upholding the site’s centuries-long tradition of pluralism. “We’re willing to confront anyone who obstructs the peace and harmony in this region,” said Sister Philomena Mathew, a member of the Missionary Sisters of Mary Help of Christians. Sister Jesline Rose, who serves with the Missionary Sisters of Mary Immaculate, added that the community will carry forward the vision of interfaith solidarity forged by past saints. “No doubt the political landscape in Bengal is changing, but we’ll keep our pluralistic spirit alive,” she said. Rose and her fellow sisters regularly make home visits to Hindu and Muslim families across the neighborhood, offering spiritual support and practical aid to people navigating personal and medical hardship.

    For devotees like Chowdhury, who lives in a nearby mixed-faith neighborhood of narrow alleyways behind the church, the nuns embody the enduring protective power of the site they steward. Like many pilgrims, Chowdhury leaves her prayer intentions on slips of paper in the wish box beside the Virgin Mary’s statue, joining thousands of other cross-faith visitors who gather on the church grounds for festivals and annual winter pilgrimages. Though Chowdhury shares widespread anxiety that rising national religious intolerance will eventually reach West Bengal, she says the community at Bandel Church gives her hope. The nuns, she says, “embody the power of Mother Mary, who is the protector of all devotees at our church. Together, the community draws strength from the shared reverence for the divine feminine—from Mary to Hindu goddesses Kali and Durga—to push back against extremist attempts to divide people along religious lines.”

  • IRGC says it hit US special operations unit in Syria as bombs fall on Iran for sixth night

    IRGC says it hit US special operations unit in Syria as bombs fall on Iran for sixth night

    A sharp escalation of conflict across the Middle East unfolded on Friday, as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it had targeted a United States special operations command center near Syria’s al-Tanf border outpost, marking the first reported Iranian attack on Syria-linked US positions since the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began in late February. The strike, which Iran framed as retaliation for the recent killing of Iranian soldiers in the southeastern city of Iranshahr, was detailed in a statement carried by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, but independent verification of the IRGC’s claim remains unavailable through Middle East Eye. A Syrian military source speaking to Reuters clarified that while an Iranian attack did occur in the al-Tanf area – a strategic zone located near Syria’s triple border with Jordan and Iraq, from which the US military confirmed its withdrawal earlier this year – the strike did not actually hit the former base compound, and no casualties or material damage were recorded. Syria has long sought to insulate itself from the widening regional conflict, with President Ahmed al-Sharaa reaffirming in March that the country would remain neutral unless directly attacked. The IRGC’s cross-border strike came as the US military carried out its sixth straight night of bombing operations across Iran, extending a campaign that resumed on June 22. Fresh strikes on Friday targeted Iranshahr Airport in southeastern Iran, damaging critical infrastructure including electrical facilities and a fuel storage tank that sparked a widespread power outage in the area. Iranian state television reported that at least one civilian was wounded in the attack. Additional US strikes on bridges across southern Iran killed at least seven civilians, Iranian state media confirmed, with at least five key crossings damaged, including the vital Gariveh Bridge in Hormozgan province’s Khamir County. Explosions were also reported Friday in the southeastern port city of Chabahar, and a separate US strike on a residential neighborhood in the southern coastal city of Bandar Abbas left one person dead and eight injured, according to local media. These escalating military moves come even as the White House has signaled openness to diplomatic de-escalation. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated Thursday evening that President Donald Trump remains “open to diplomacy” and that backchannel talks between US and Iranian officials are continuing despite soaring tensions. As of Friday, Iran’s Ministry of Health reported that the ongoing US bombing campaign has left at least 38 people dead and more than 400 injured across the country. Ministry spokesperson Hossein Kermanpourm confirmed that the casualty toll includes one child and three women killed, with an additional nine children and 22 women wounded. The IRGC’s retaliatory actions extended across the region Friday, with drone and missile attacks targeting US military assets positioned in multiple neighboring Gulf states. Kuwait’s military announced its air defense systems activated to intercept “hostile missile and drone attacks” launched from Iranian territory. In Bahrain, national emergency sirens were activated across the country, with the interior ministry urging civilians to seek shelter in the nearest safe location. Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran’s strike targeted US helicopters and a reconnaissance aircraft at Bahrain’s Sakhir Air Base. Early Friday, multiple explosions shook Qatar’s capital city of Doha, after Qatari authorities confirmed they intercepted an incoming missile attack. Qatar’s interior ministry reported one child was wounded by falling shrapnel from the interception operation. The IRGC also confirmed it targeted a US maritime surveillance radar installation in Oman. Jordan’s military announced three Iranian missiles bound for Jordanian territory were successfully intercepted, with no casualties or damage reported. In northern Iraq’s Kurdish region, the US-led international coalition shot down multiple drones over the city of Erbil, according to local Kurdish counterterrorism forces. Parallel to the cross-border escalation between Iran and the US, Israeli forces are moving to solidify their control over southern Lebanon, with Israeli daily newspaper Maariv reporting that the Israel Defense Forces has begun constructing a new line of permanent military outposts along the southern part of the country. This development adds another layer of instability to an already fractured region.

  • Chinese AI model takes US tech industry by surprise with abilities rivaling Claude and ChatGPT

    Chinese AI model takes US tech industry by surprise with abilities rivaling Claude and ChatGPT

    On Friday, the U.S. technology landscape was caught off guard by the launch of a cutting-edge new artificial intelligence model from China, a development that underscores how Chinese startups focused on publicly available open-source AI are rapidly closing the gap with Silicon Valley’s most dominant AI players.

    The new release, Kimi K3, comes from Beijing-based AI startup Moonshot, led by chief executive Yang Zhilin—a Pink Floyd enthusiast who earned his doctorate in artificial intelligence and machine learning at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Industry analysts and AI evaluators say the model now rivals top-tier closed-source models from leading U.S. developers Anthropic and OpenAI.

    Anastasios Angelopoulos, co-founder and CEO of independent AI evaluation platform Arena, called the Kimi K3 launch “the single biggest release of the year,” adding that it marks a turning point where open-source Chinese AI models have begun to outperform closed alternatives developed in the United States. The new model already claimed the top spot on Arena’s rankings for front-end coding capability, a key benchmark for measuring large language model performance, and Angelopoulos noted on social media that additional ongoing testing is expected to confirm K3’s position among the global industry’s highest-performing models.

    The launch was strategically timed to coincide with the opening of China’s annual World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, where Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered the opening address. U.S.-led export restrictions have long blocked Chinese firms from accessing cutting-edge foreign AI hardware and technology, a pressure that has accelerated domestic innovation and deepened the AI and technology rivalry between the world’s two largest economies. During his address, Xi emphasized that AI development should not be a one-nation solo performance, but a collaborative global symphony, a comment widely interpreted as a rebuke to U.S. export curbs on technology sharing.

    Kimi K3 is the second high-profile open-source AI launch from a major Chinese startup in as many months. Last month, leading Chinese AI firm Zhipu (Z.ai) unveiled its flagship GLM-5.2 model, which has already been adopted by software developers across the globe. Developers report that the model delivers performance nearly on par with top U.S. offerings at a far lower price point.

    The market excitement surrounding Kimi K3 echoes the widespread industry disruption that followed the January 2025 launch of another Chinese open-source model from DeepSeek. Not all analysts agree that the hype is justified, however: prominent tech analyst Patrick Moorhead noted on social media that the reaction to K3 is an “overreaction shockingly similar” to the response to DeepSeek’s release last year. Even so, Moorhead acknowledged that while the rising competition could benefit the broader AI ecosystem, it poses significant revenue pressure on market leaders Anthropic and OpenAI.

    At the week’s Shanghai conference, Chinese tech giant Huawei also showcased its new Atlas 950 SuperPoD AI computing system, a clear signal that China has built out robust domestic AI hardware capacity despite U.S. restrictions on imports of advanced chips from U.S. manufacturers including Nvidia. While Moonshot has not publicly disclosed what hardware it used to train Kimi K3, the startup is an official partner of Huawei. According to research published Friday by Bank of America analysts, while Kimi K3 carries the highest price tag of any major Chinese AI model released to date, it still costs only half as much as OpenAI’s top-tier GPT-5.6 Sol model.

    The rising competitiveness of Chinese open-source AI has amplified long-running tensions between U.S. and Chinese developers. Top U.S. AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI, along with many U.S. policymakers, have accused Chinese AI developers of illicit “distillation”—a training technique that uses outputs from a more powerful existing model to train a smaller, less capable alternative—to steal their technology. Beijing has repeatedly dismissed these claims as entirely unfounded. Back in February, Anthropic formally accused DeepSeek, Moonshot and a third Chinese AI lab, MiniMax, of running coordinated campaigns to illicitly extract Claude’s core capabilities to improve their own models. While Anthropic noted that distillation can be a legitimate training method when done ethically, the company argues that it becomes problematic when competitors use it to acquire cutting-edge capabilities in a fraction of the time and cost required for independent development.

    Notably, the flow of AI innovation between the two countries runs in both directions. San Francisco-based startup Anysphere, developer of the widely used coding tool Cursor, has openly acknowledged that one of its flagship products is built on Moonshot’s earlier K2.5 open-source model. Elon Musk’s aerospace firm SpaceX is currently finalizing a $60 billion acquisition deal for Cursor, expected to close later this year.

    For Yang Zhilin, Kimi K3’s landmark performance is a milestone that bridges the U.S.-China tech divide. Yang earned his PhD from Carnegie Mellon in 2019, where he made foundational contributions to machine learning research and was known for his love of classic rock. His former academic adviser at CMU, Russ Salakhutdinov—who previously served as director of AI research at Apple—expressed pride that transcends geopolitical rivalry, writing on social media: “What a huge win for the open-source community! It feels like just yesterday Zhilin was graduating from my lab at CMU.”

    Open-source AI development makes core model architecture and weights publicly accessible for any developer to examine, modify and build into new tools. Proponents argue this open approach accelerates global innovation, while critics warn that making powerful high-capacity AI models freely available creates unmanageable safety and national security risks.

  • Do declassified files support Trump’s election security claims?

    Do declassified files support Trump’s election security claims?

    In a 26-minute address delivered from the White House East Room — the same venue where former President Barack Obama announced the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in 2011 — former and current President Donald Trump resurrected long-standing, unsubstantiated claims of widespread election fraud and foreign interference in U.S. electoral processes.

    During the speech, Trump framed the current U.S. election system as dangerously unsecure, claiming that hundreds of newly declassified intelligence documents would expose what he called “shocking vulnerabilities” in the nation’s voting infrastructure. Following the address, the White House published four collections of declassified “election integrity” documents, which were independently analyzed by BBC Verify. While many of the released files were heavily redacted, the review found no explosive new revelations and no concrete evidence that any foreign interference or domestic fraud altered the outcome of any previous U.S. election, including the 2020 presidential contest that Trump lost to Joe Biden.

    A core narrative of Trump’s speech centered on casting China as the primary malign actor in alleged election meddling, describing Beijing as a nefarious force conducting “sinister election meddling” in U.S. elections. The released documents do confirm that Chinese actors took steps to acquire U.S. voter data — much of which was already publicly available or purchasable on open markets — and explored potential avenues to influence U.S. public opinion. However, these activities fall far short of the large-scale election tampering Trump implied, and are far smaller in scope than the 2016 election interference campaign conducted by Russia, which Trump only mentioned once in his address. This aligns with a 2021 declassified assessment from the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), which concluded with “high confidence” that China did not interfere in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

    In his address, Trump claimed that “over a period of years starting during the 2020 election cycle, the People’s Republic of China carried out what is believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history, resulting in China’s illicit acquisition of 220 million U.S. voter files,” adding that “tens of millions of voters’ data in 18 states” had been “bought, stolen or hacked by China.” A July 13, 2026 statement from the White House’s Government Transparency Force included in the released document batch echoed the claim that voter rolls from at least 18 states and more than 200 million total voter records had been compromised by China, without specifying a timeframe. One heavily redacted declassified document includes a table dated 2016 listing 204,822,241 unspecified U.S. voter records as “likely leaked, compromised data,” but the extensive redactions make it impossible to confirm the full context or veracity of this entry.

    Strengthening U.S. election infrastructure has been a bipartisan policy priority for decades. Following the contested 2000 presidential election and again after confirmed Russian interference in 2016, U.S. policymakers implemented new national security standards to shore up voting systems, and most states now require paper ballots as a verifiable backup to digital voting systems, even as election administration remains under state control. However, analysts note Trump’s revival of these fraud claims carries clear partisan goals: casting ongoing doubt on the legitimacy of his 2020 loss and laying groundwork to question the outcome of future elections he may contest or lose.

    Trump also used his speech to claim that declassified assessments prove U.S. voting machines are “extremely exposed to attack,” quoting an assessment that reads, “we judged that the United States’ adversaries, including, at a minimum, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, as well as non-state groups have the capability to compromise U.S. election infrastructure.” The released documents do include a January 2020 declassified NIC assessment that acknowledged ballot and voting machine preparation faces potential risks from cyberattacks, supply chain compromise, and insider threats, noting that machines without paper backup are particularly vulnerable to cyber manipulation. Crucially, however, the same assessment also concluded that existing security mitigations and the decentralized nature of U.S. voting storage make it extremely difficult for any foreign adversary to coordinate a widespread campaign to manipulate results across an entire state or multiple states. A separate August 2020 declassified NIC report, which Trump appeared to reference, does note that foreign actors could seek to compromise election infrastructure, but does not confirm that any successful large-scale manipulation has ever occurred. It is also worth noting that the Trump administration has moved to cut funding and undermine the independence of federal agencies tasked with monitoring and protecting U.S. election security in recent years.

    Michigan, a key battleground state that Trump won in 2016 and 2024 but lost in 2020, has long been a focal point of Trump’s fraud allegations, and he highlighted the state again in Thursday’s speech. The president claimed there was massive hidden evidence of fraud in Michigan ahead of the 2020 election that had been covered up. The released documents reference an ongoing investigation into fraudulent voter registration applications in Muskegon, Michigan, launched in October 2020, with one document noting between 8,000 and 10,000 suspicious applications. The case was referred to law enforcement, and FBI testing of a sample found 91 out of 107 applications returned no matching results in government database checks. After nearly five years of investigation, the FBI closed the case in September 2025, concluding that “the investigation to date did not identify a criminal violation.” Despite this closing, Trump announced he has asked new FBI Director Kash Patel to open a full new investigation into the matter. Local news outlets did originally report on the irregularities identified by Muskegon election officials at the time the investigation opened in 2020.

    One of the most specific claims from Trump’s address centered on non-citizen registration, with the president announcing the White House was releasing “the results of a stunning investigation by the Department of Homeland Security” that “identified approximately 278,000 non-citizens who are registered to vote in federal elections.” The one-page DHS document released confirms that “over 250,000 non-citizens are illegally registered to vote in just the four U.S. states for which public data files have been reviewed.” However, the document provides no supporting evidence, does not link to the underlying data, does not explain how the figures were collected or verified, and offers no breakdown of methodology, making it impossible to independently confirm the claim’s validity. Multiple independent studies have documented that non-citizen voting is extremely rare in U.S. elections, with only a handful of verified cases across the country in every election cycle. Trump has repeatedly claimed that Democratic candidates rely on votes from millions of undocumented migrants, and has argued that passing his proposed federal election security legislation would allow Republicans to secure permanent control of the U.S. government.

  • Israeli Trump ally backs Argentina over Falklands after England’s World Cup defeat

    Israeli Trump ally backs Argentina over Falklands after England’s World Cup defeat

    A post-World Cup semi-final political gesture has ignited a transatlantic diplomatic firestorm, linking a decades-old sovereignty dispute to ongoing Middle East alliance tensions. After Argentina’s 2-1 World Cup semi-final victory over England in Atlanta, Argentine players unfurled a banner reading “Las Malvinas son Argentinas” — “The Malvinas are Argentine” — reawakening the long-running sovereignty dispute over the South Atlantic archipelago, known to Britain as the Falkland Islands. The incident is now under formal review by FIFA, the global governing body of football, which prohibits overt political messaging during official tournament matches.

    The call for a major U.S. policy shift on the dispute came from Marc Zell, chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel, an Israeli-American conservative Republican leader. Zell has leveraged the on-pitch demonstration to urge former U.S. President Donald Trump to abandon Washington’s long-standing neutral stance on the Falklands question, framing the move as leverage against the United Kingdom for its refusal to join a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which Zell labeled “a dastardly betrayal”.

    Writing on social media, Zell argued that the Trump administration should re-evaluate U.S. policy toward the Falklands/Malvinas in recognition of Argentina’s pro-U.S. and pro-Israel alignment, a stark contrast to Britain’s rejection of participation in conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. “FIFA may fine them. The British press is outraged. But Argentina has been a steadfast friend of the United States and of Israel — and friends deserve to be heard,” Zell stated, adding that “The Malvinas question deserves a serious answer from Washington.”

    Notably, Zell’s call received immediate backing from Argentina’s strongly pro-Israel president Javier Milei, who has made unwavering support for Israel a core tenet of his foreign policy agenda. Milei has stood with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu throughout the military campaign in Gaza, has publicly explored converting to Judaism, and has pledged to move Argentina’s Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem — a move aligned with U.S. Republican policy priorities. Responding to Zell, Milei affirmed that his administration is making steady diplomatic progress toward reclaiming sovereignty over the Falklands, South Georgia, the South Sandwich Islands, and their surrounding maritime areas, dismissing critics of the move as immature.

    “While some are busy throwing tantrums befitting a terminally mononeuronal teenager, we, through the diplomatic route, are getting closer every day to the recovery of the Malvinas Islands, Georgias, and South Sandwich Islands, and the surrounding maritime space,” Milei said. Zell later thanked Milei for publicly endorsing his position, cementing the unusual alignment between the conservative American-Israeli activist and the Argentine president on the sovereignty issue.

    British officials issued a blunt rejection of the sovereignty claim immediately after the banner was displayed. “The World Cup might not be ours, but the Falkland Islands definitely are,” a UK government spokesperson stated.

    The dispute over the archipelago stretches back more than two centuries. Britain first claimed the islands in 1765, when a British ship landed on the territory, and reasserted its sovereignty claim in 1833. Argentina has contested British control of the islands since its independence, and the dispute erupted into open armed conflict in 1982, when Argentina’s ruling military dictatorship launched an invasion of the islands. The 74-day war that followed killed 649 Argentine troops, 255 British service members, and three Falkland Island civilians, ending with British retention of control over the territory. In a 2013 referendum held on the islands, 99.8 percent of participating voters opted to remain a British overseas territory.

  • Why are there sanctions on Iran and when could they be lifted?

    Why are there sanctions on Iran and when could they be lifted?

    Against a backdrop of fresh U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets in early 2026, former President Donald Trump has ramped up pressure on Tehran, calling on congressional Republicans to attach new Iranian sanctions to a long-delayed bill targeting Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. This latest demand comes as Western sanctions on Iran, one of the broadest and longest-running embargo regimes in modern global history, have already reshaped Iran’s economy, political trajectory, and its standing on the world stage for decades.

    As independent outlet Middle East Eye outlines in a comprehensive breakdown, the modern sanctions regime against Iran did not emerge overnight. Its roots stretch back to November 1979, just months after the Iranian Revolution ousted the Western-backed Shah. When Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and held 52 American hostages for 444 days, Washington responded by freezing more than $8 billion in Iranian assets held by U.S. financial institutions. By April 1980, that initial freeze expanded into a full ban on all imports of Iranian goods and services to the U.S.

    The 1981 Algiers Accords resolved the hostage crisis, leading to eased restrictions and the return of most frozen assets. But just three years later, Washington reimposed sweeping restrictions, slapping an arms embargo on Iran and formally designating the Islamic Republic a “state sponsor of terror.” That move followed the 1983 bombing of U.S. and French barracks in Beirut, which Washington blamed on Iran-backed Hezbollah, cementing a adversarial framework that would shape policy for decades.

    Through the 1990s, sanctions expanded dramatically as global fears grew over Iran’s emerging nuclear program. In 1995, President Bill Clinton issued executive orders imposing a total ban on all U.S. trade and investment with Iran. The following year, Congress passed the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act, which introduced groundbreaking “secondary sanctions” that penalized foreign companies investing in Iran’s energy sector, effectively cutting Iran off from most of the global oil trade. While provisions targeting Libya were later scrapped, the act has been reauthorized repeatedly by Congress ever since.

    By the mid-2000s, multilateral sanctions joined unilateral U.S. measures. The U.N. Security Council imposed its first set of restrictions on Iran in 2006, after the International Atomic Energy Agency referred Tehran to the body over its uncooperative uranium enrichment program. Through the 2010s, the Security Council expanded those measures, focusing on an arms embargo and asset freezes for individuals and firms tied to Iran’s nuclear work. Unlike U.S. sanctions, U.N. measures are legally binding on all member states, though Russia has repeatedly rejected key provisions. In 2008, the Western-backed Financial Action Task Force blacklisted Iran over alleged money laundering and terrorist financing ties, further isolating it from the global financial system; today, Iran remains one of only three countries on the FATF blacklist, alongside Myanmar and North Korea.

    Pressure escalated further in 2012, when the SWIFT global banking network cut off Iranian financial institutions at Washington’s behest, deepening Iran’s financial isolation. That same year, the EU – then the largest buyer of Iranian oil – introduced its own oil embargo and asset freezes over nuclear concerns. The EU has since expanded sanctions to target Tehran over its 2022 and 2026 anti-government protests and its military support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The most significant breakthrough in the standoff came in 2015, when world powers reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a landmark nuclear agreement between Iran, the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the EU. The deal went into effect in January 2016, requiring Iran to cap its uranium enrichment activities and open all its nuclear facilities to rigorous international inspections in exchange for broad sanctions relief. The JCPOA unlocked tens of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and allowed Iran to resume full oil exports, marking the most significant diplomatic normalization between Iran and the West in decades.

    That progress unraveled just two and a half years later, when then-President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in May 2018 and reimposed all U.S. secondary sanctions. Trump argued the original agreement, negotiated by the Obama administration, still left Iran able to develop a nuclear weapon and would spark a regional nuclear arms race. Iran responded by gradually increasing its uranium enrichment beyond the JCPOA’s limits, eroding the core constraints of the deal.

    In 2020, the U.S. attempted to trigger a JCPOA “snapback” mechanism to reimpose expired U.N. sanctions, but the move was widely rejected as unlawful by all other remaining JCPOA signatories, and U.N. sanctions were lifted as scheduled. The dynamic shifted again in August 2025, when France, Germany, and the UK reversed their position amid growing concerns over Iran’s expanding uranium stockpile, triggering the snapback to reimpose U.N. sanctions over the strong objections of China and Russia. The UK, now independent of EU policy after Brexit, imposed its own set of targeted sanctions in 2023, designating the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – a core institution of the Iranian state – for sanctions over alleged hostile activities globally.

    For nearly half a century, sanctions have gutted Iran’s economy, even though the country holds one of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas. Cut off from formal global energy markets, Iran now relies on a “shadow fleet” of aging tankers to sell discounted crude on the black market, with most shipments going to China. While international law technically exempts humanitarian goods like food and medicine from sanctions, most global banks and shipping firms avoid handling even these transactions due to steep compliance and legal risks, exacerbating shortages and pushing inflation to crippling levels. That economic pressure was a core driver of the widespread anti-government protests that shook Iran in January 2026.

    Following the outbreak of open hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran in late February 2026, sanctions have become the central bargaining chip in negotiations to end the conflict. In mid-June, the two sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that outlined a path to sanctions relief: the U.S. would terminate all unilateral and multilateral sanctions against Iran on a negotiated schedule and release billions in frozen Iranian assets held in banks around the world. Shortly after the deal, Iranian lead negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf announced that an agreement had been reached to unlock $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Trump later confirmed the deal, but claimed the funds would only be released to buy food exclusively from U.S. farmers – a condition Tehran has rejected outright.

    As part of the June MoU, Washington issued a 60-day waiver for Iranian oil exports, and Iran agreed to cap uranium enrichment and reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. But the fragile agreement has already collapsed: after renewed hostilities broke out between the two sides, Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” canceled the oil sanctions waiver, reimposed a military blockade on Iranian ports to stop covert oil exports, and hit Tehran with a new round of restrictions.

    Even if a new final peace deal is reached, lifting the full panoply of Western sanctions faces significant political and procedural hurdles. First, most U.S. sanctions are codified in congressional legislation, meaning they require approval from both the Senate and House of Representatives to be overturned – and many lawmakers in both parties have long held hawkish positions on Iran and have blocked previous sanction relief deals. Second, the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist organization by the U.S., EU, and UK means that even if broad sanctions are lifted, global businesses will still face severe legal barriers to trading with any entity tied to the group, which permeates almost every sector of Iran’s economy. Third, lifting U.N. sanctions requires approval from all five permanent members of the Security Council: while China and Russia have long supported ending sanctions, the U.S., UK, and France remain hesitant to fully roll back measures. For its part, the EU has signaled it is open to lifting nuclear-related sanctions if Iran verifiably curbs its enrichment program, but removing all EU sanctions requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states, and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has indicated that sanctions imposed over Iran’s human rights record will remain in place even after a nuclear deal.

  • Why the World Cup final has morphed into a debate on Palestine and Israel

    Why the World Cup final has morphed into a debate on Palestine and Israel

    As global football communities and sports networks engage in heated debates over the outcome of the 2026 FIFA World Cup final, the showdown between Spain and Argentina has transformed into far more than a contest for the sport’s most prestigious trophy or a battle for national bragging rights. Across social media platforms, from viral TikTok clips to widely shared X posts and memes, thousands of fans worldwide have framed Sunday’s final as a de facto referendum on political solidarity with Palestine, amid the ongoing Israeli military campaign in Gaza that has drawn widespread global condemnation.

    Many online observers have framed the match in stark political terms: “Pro-Palestine vs Pro-Israel,” one X user posted of the upcoming clash. Tensions have risen online as Argentina faces widespread criticism from pro-Palestinian advocates, who link the defending 2022 champions to Israel due to the close political alignment between the current Argentinian government and Tel Aviv. Argentinian President Javier Milei has publicly declared himself “sincerely proud to be the most Zionist president in the world,” a statement that has drawn significant international attention and backlash. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly confirmed his support for Argentina in the final during a podcast interview, specifically citing Milei as “a great friend of Israel” as the reason for his backing. Israeli politicians further amplified this connection on Wednesday, taking to social media to publicly celebrate Argentina’s semi-final victory over England.

    On the opposite side, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has earned a reputation as one of Europe’s most prominent and vocal advocates for Palestinian statehood and rights. Under Sánchez’s leadership, Spain officially recognized the State of Palestine as a sovereign nation in 2024, implemented a full arms embargo on Israel, and has consistently pushed for a permanent ceasefire to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. This clear political stance has won Spain widespread support from pro-Palestinian fans globally, with many sharing footage of Sánchez’s 2024 recognition announcement alongside posts declaring “Full support to Spain in the World Cup Final.”

    “You have a team that is literally endorsed by Netanyahu… That doesn’t look good… Against the team that is representing the country in Europe that is most outspoken against the genocide in Gaza,” one TikTok user posted, echoing a sentiment shared by thousands of other fans. “We were all rooting for Argentina four years ago, but some more fucked up shit happened, and we don’t feel that way anymore.” Another X user expanded on this framing, writing, “This Sunday’s World Cup final is about more than just football. It’s a battle between good and evil: between one of the countries that has been among the strongest supporters of Palestine and the world’s most Zionist country, in the words of its own president.”

    The political framing has extended beyond government leadership to the players themselves. A viral video of Spanish young star Lamine Yamal waving the Palestinian flag during FC Barcelona’s La Liga title celebration parade in May has been widely reshared by pro-Palestinian fans, who contrast this public display with the silence of Argentina’s global icon Lionel Messi on the Israel-Gaza conflict. Critics of Argentina have also highlighted Messi’s past brand partnerships with Israeli companies, as well as photographs from FC Barcelona’s 2013 “Peace Tour” to Israel and Palestine, which show Messi posing with then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli President Shimon Peres at the Western Wall. These images have been heavily promoted by Israeli official channels, sparking backlash from pro-Palestinian activists. However, other observers have noted that Messi also met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the occupied West Bank during the same tour, arguing that the football star should not be held personally responsible for an official club trip organized by FC Barcelona.

    This politicization of football is not a new development during this 2026 World Cup, with Palestine taking center stage in multiple matches throughout the tournament. In one notable earlier incident, Argentinian fans waved Israeli flags at Egyptian head coach Hossam Hassan after he celebrated his team’s first ever knockout stage victory by entering the pitch carrying a Palestinian flag. During Spain’s 2-0 semi-final win against France, Oscar-winning Spanish actor Javier Bardem made headlines after he was filmed accepting a Palestinian flag from a fan in the stands. When asked for a message to the Palestinian people, Bardem pressed his hand to his heart and responded simply, “Existence is resistance,” and later reaffirmed “Spain stands with Palestine” in a separate video posted during the team’s round-of-16 match against Portugal.

    Beyond the debate over Palestine solidarity, Argentina has also faced online criticism over widespread perceptions of unfair bias from FIFA in favor of the defending champions. The wave of international criticism has prompted many Argentinian fans to push back online, working to clarify that Milei’s hardline pro-Zionist stance does not reflect the views of the general Argentinian public, many of whom hold pro-Palestine views. Other Argentinian supporters have pushed back against what they call an oversimplification of the match, pointing out that Argentina recognized Palestine as a free and independent state all the way back in 2010, under then-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, far earlier than Spain’s 2024 recognition.

    Dyab Abou Jahjah, president of the Hind Rajab Foundation, offered a nuanced perspective on the politicization of the final in a post Wednesday. “Sport has always been intertwined with politics, and it always will be. But reality is more complex than that,” he wrote. “Argentina is not Israel. Argentina is not Zionist. It cannot be reduced to any ideological camp… On Sunday, I will still be supporting Spain, out of genuine gratitude for that explicit solidarity. But I will not approach the match as a fanatic or an ideologue. If Argentina plays as brilliantly as they did today, they will deserve to win.”

  • Malaysia vows to deport Israelis found in digital nomads community

    Malaysia vows to deport Israelis found in digital nomads community

    Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has announced a hardline policy that any Israeli nationals discovered within the country’s borders will face immediate deportation, a stance rooted in the nation’s decades-long non-recognition of the state of Israel. The prime minister’s remarks came in response to unfolding allegations that Israeli citizens have secretly joined a high-profile tech-focused digital nomad community in the southern Malaysian state of Johor, triggering an official multi-agency investigation into the project. The initiative under scrutiny is Network School, a physical tech community venture founded by former Coinbase chief technology officer and American investor Balaji Srinivasan. Marketed on its official platform as a “frontier community of techno-optimists” focused on translating online digital networks into tangible startup-focused societies, the project is based in Forest City — a massive $100 billion reclaimed land development in Johor. The investigation was launched after social media users raised claims that a number of participants in Network School held Israeli citizenship, entered Malaysia under dual nationality by using passports from third countries, and thus violated the country’s immigration rules. In an official statement released Tuesday, Malaysia’s Ministry of Home Affairs confirmed it had opened the probe into the community. Following the allegations, Israeli media outlet Ynet reported that Malaysian authorities had already started cross-checking the identities of all foreign nationals associated with the project. Onn Hafiz Ghazi, chief minister of Johor state, has directed the home ministry and other relevant enforcement bodies to conduct a full, comprehensive review of the venture’s operations. His instruction lays out clear terms for the probe: investigators must verify the identities and nationalities of all people linked to the project, examine their travel documentation and the alleged use of second passports, confirm the validity of their entry passes, cross-check their stated purpose for visiting against their actual activities in the state, and ensure all activity aligns with Malaysian law. “The state will not allow any parties to use Johor as a base to spread ideologies or movements that are against the law, sovereignty and interests of Johor and Malaysia,” Onn Hafiz Ghazi told local media. To date, Malaysian immigration officials have completed preliminary checks on 266 foreign nationals from 40 different countries connected to the Forest City community, and have confirmed that all of those screened hold valid immigration documentation. No Israeli nationals have been publicly identified as part of the ongoing investigation, and authorities have not released any updates on final findings. As a Muslim-majority Southeast Asian nation, Malaysia has never maintained formal diplomatic relations with Israel. The country’s longstanding policy bars holders of Israeli passports from entering the country without exceptional, special government approval, though it does not currently have formal legislation banning dual citizens of Israel and other nations from entering using their non-Israeli passports. Malaysia’s position on Israel has remained consistent since it gained independence from British colonial rule in 1957, and the country has long been one of the most outspoken supporters of Palestinian statehood and rights in the Southeast Asian region. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who has repeatedly and harshly criticized Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza as genocidal, reaffirmed the country’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause in his comments on this investigation. “If we find any Israeli, we will deport them immediately because we do not recognise Israel,” Anwar told local media. The prime minister added that if the investigation confirms the presence of Israeli nationals in Network School, immediate action will follow: “If it turns out that the claims are true, they will be deported immediately. All relevant authorities are already conducting an investigation into the matter.”

  • Trump has no good escalation options left against Iran

    Trump has no good escalation options left against Iran

    Just over a year ago, former U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a blunt, dismissive remark to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office amid Ukraine’s war against Russian invasion: *“You don’t have the cards.”* Today, that line has flipped: it is Trump, now locked in a tense military standoff with Iran, who finds himself holding no winning hand over control of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.

    Militarily, Iran cannot match the full conventional power of the United States. But Tehran has mastered asymmetric tactics to exert outsized leverage over the 21-mile-wide waterway, through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil and gas supplies, plus large global shipments of critical industrial commodities including sulphur, ammonia, urea and helium, pass. No matter how many public declarations Trump issues guaranteeing open commercial transit, he lacks the ability to enforce that guarantee.

    This week, the U.S. resumed air bombardments targeting Iranian positions along the strait in an attempt to break Tehran’s control. But military analysts warn the situation could spiral into far broader conflict if Trump is pushed into a corner by his own political and military positioning.

    ### How Iran Turned Geopolitics Into Leverage
    Iran’s power over the strait stems from a core asymmetric warfare strategy: acting as a disruptive spoiler. Every day the strait remains effectively closed to unimpeded transit, it ratchets up economic and political pressure on the U.S. and its Persian Gulf partner states to end hostilities.

    The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite military force, has already demonstrated its ability to disrupt commercial shipping at will over the past week, using drones and missile strikes to threaten vessels. Despite sustained U.S. bombardments since the outbreak of the current conflict, the majority of Iran’s missile emplacements along the strait have been restored and are fully operational once again.

    This persistent threat has had a direct impact on global shipping: major international insurers including Lloyd’s of London have either refused to underwrite policies for voyages through the strait, or hiked premiums to prohibitive levels that make commercial transit unprofitable. Beyond disrupting shipping, the IRGC has carried out large-scale strikes across every Gulf state this week, inflicting severe damage on dozens of U.S. military bases stationed across the region. The long-held perception among Gulf monarchies that hosting U.S. military forces would guarantee their national security has been completely dismantled by these attacks.

    ### Why Broader Escalation Remains a Clear Risk
    A cold hard reality shapes the current standoff: there is no purely military solution that will force the Strait of Hormuz open permanently. At the same time, neither the Iranian regime nor the Trump administration has an interest in spiraling into large-scale escalation, as both face massive potential losses. U.S. military operations alone have already topped $100 billion in costs, with no clear strategic gains to show for the spending.

    But the domestic calculus on both sides pushes toward greater conflict. In Tehran, hardline factions have been emboldened by a wave of national mourning following the death of long-serving Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leaving them far more willing to pursue prolonged conflict than pragmatic leaders in other capitals. Analysts assess that Iranian hardliners can withstand a U.S. naval blockade and sustained bombardment for many more months, and the Iranian regime is actually in a stronger strategic position today than it was when the war began, even as the conflict remains unpopular with the majority of the Iranian public.

    For Trump, meanwhile, political pressure to be seen as a winner is intense. And with many of the conventional institutional checks and balances that limit presidential war power having been weakened in recent years, the risk of reckless, unplanned escalation is very real. Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iranian civilian critical infrastructure, including power grids and desalination plants – a move that would almost certainly prompt Iran to retaliate against energy infrastructure across Gulf states. Such a retaliation would have immediate, long-lasting impacts on the global economy, as seen when Iran targeted Gulf energy sites earlier in the conflict.

    If escalation proceeds even further to target the more than 400 desalination plants that supply nearly all of the Gulf’s drinking water, the humanitarian consequences would be catastrophic. Iran could also pressure the Houthi movement in Yemen to abandon its current limited blockade of Israeli shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the critical chokepoint at the southern end of the Red Sea that carries 10% of all global trade, and resume attacking all commercial vessels transiting the waterway. Until now, the Houthis have held back from broader attacks, in large part because they reached a detente with neighboring Saudi Arabia after years of war. But that ceasefire is now teetering, following this week’s airport attack that the Houthis have blamed on Saudi Arabia.

    ### A Ground Invasion Would Be A Catastrophic Failure
    History and geography make any U.S. ground campaign against Iran a disastrous proposition. Air power alone has never achieved regime change, and for all its unmatched military might, the U.S. has not won a major interstate war in more than 80 years. A full escalation against Iran would require deploying U.S. ground troops, echoing the 2003 invasion of Iraq. But even a coalition of hundreds of thousands of troops failed to bring lasting stability to Iraq after the invasion, and Iran is nearly four times larger than Iraq.

    Assembling the massive force required to control even just Iran’s mountainous southern coast is effectively inconceivable. What is more, the spread of modern drone technology has created a new era of asymmetric warfare that Iran is far better positioned to exploit than the U.S. Iran has built up a deep, self-sufficient domestic military industrial base that has allowed it to create a far more balanced fight against the world’s most powerful military than many analysts predicted. For any U.S. force attempting to occupy even limited territory such as the Iranian coast or key Kharg Island energy terminal, the opposition would be formidable and sustained.

    Even the most extreme outcome, the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, remains a small but non-negligible risk – a move that would open a Pandora’s box of unforeseen catastrophic consequences for the entire global order.

    In the end, what is Trump’s least bad option? Allowing Iran to cement its new level of control over the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent for global maritime security, but analysts argue it remains the better outcome compared to the catastrophic costs of further escalation.