Less than two years after securing a landslide general election win, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finds his grip on the premiership slipping, following a resounding by-election victory that has cleared the path for a major leadership challenge from popular former Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.
Starmer’s position has been precarious for months. Earlier this year, the Peter Mandelson scandal rocked his administration: sordid connections between the ex-US ambassador, a close Starmer ally, and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein prompted widespread calls for the prime minister to step down. That controversy was followed by devastating losses in May’s local elections, where Labour hemorrhaged support in its traditional northern English and London strongholds. Still, Starmer managed to hold on, with internal Labour sources confirming no party figure was willing to force a leadership change ahead of the local votes.
The current crisis began in mid-May, when former Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from Starmer’s cabinet, citing a loss of confidence in the prime minister’s leadership, warning that “where we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift.” Hours after Streeting’s departure, Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his safe Makerfield seat in northern England, triggering a by-election designed to return Burnham to parliament. Under Labour Party rules, only sitting Members of Parliament can stand for the party leadership, so the by-election was a critical first step for any would-be challenger.
On Thursday, Burnham secured a decisive win, capturing 55% of the vote in a seat that had seen major defections to Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform UK in recent years. With his return to the Commons confirmed, Burnham now joins Streeting as one of two formal challengers set to oust Starmer.
The outcome of this looming leadership contest is poised to reshape British foreign policy, most notably on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – an issue that has roiled UK politics for more than two years amid Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Polling expert John Curtice has confirmed that the Green Party, the most prominent major political voice opposing UK support for Israel, inflicted far greater damage on Labour’s local election vote share than Reform UK, as left-wing and pro-Palestinian voters abandoned the party in droves over its position. To win back these voters and counter the Green insurgency, any new Labour leader will be forced to adopt a harder line on Israel.
Both challengers have laid out different positions on the conflict, with Burnham boasting a long track record of breaking with Starmer’s approach. Burnham, a popular soft-left figure within the party, has a nuanced political history on the issue: he voted for the 2003 UK invasion of Iraq, joined the pro-Israel group Labour Friends of Israel in 2015, and during his 2015 Labour leadership run described the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement as “spiteful” and called Israel a “democracy that has a long history of protecting minorities.”
But beyond his pro-Israel credentials, Burnham has a lengthy record of criticizing the Israeli government and advocating for Palestinian statehood. He visited the occupied West Bank in 2012 with the pro-Palestine group Labour Friends of Palestine and the Middle East, called Benjamin Netanyahu’s 2015 re-election “depressing” over his pledge to expand illegal settlements, and publicly backed recognition of Palestinian statehood as a right, not a gift, as early as 2015. He has also called for an end to Israeli occupation and illegal settlement expansion, while condemning Hamas terrorist attacks.
Burnham’s most significant break from Starmer came in the weeks after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks, when Starmer controversially backed Israel’s total blockade of Gaza – a move widely categorized as a war crime. Just two days after Starmer’s statement, Burnham released a statement that carefully distanced himself from the party leader, conditioning Israel’s right to self-defense on compliance with international law and calling for unimpeded humanitarian access to Gaza. By late October 2023, as the Gaza death toll surged, Burnham broke ranks entirely to join London mayor Sadiq Khan and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in calling for an immediate ceasefire, directly challenging Starmer’s refusal to back that position. He also publicly criticized Starmer for branding pro-ceasefire MPs disloyal, and used the moment to apologize for his own past vote for the Iraq War, acknowledging that the 2003 invasion had caused massive civilian harm and fueled global terrorism.
This positioning paid off electorally: while Starmer’s Labour lost a third of its vote share in majority-Muslim areas during the 2024 local elections, Burnham comfortably retained his post as Greater Manchester mayor, where a large Muslim electorate resides. In the years since, he has repeatedly pushed the Labour government to take bolder action, joining a cross-party group in 2025 to urge immediate recognition of Palestinian statehood – a demand the Starmer government ultimately conceded to in September of that year.
For his part, Streeting has sought to position himself as a secret critic of Starmer’s policy since resignating from cabinet, releasing leaked 2025 text messages in which he claimed Israel was “committing war crimes before our eyes” and engaging in “ethnic cleansing.” However, many voters have not forgotten that Streeting publicly backed Starmer’s line for months after 7 October, and opposed ceasefire calls through that period. Unlike Burnham, Streeting has largely stayed aligned with the party’s official position for most of the conflict, and only recently softened his public stance, under pressure from challengers. In the 2024 general election, Streeting nearly lost his seat to a young British Palestinian independent candidate, who came within 528 votes of unseating him.
Under the current Starmer administration, London has already taken small steps to distance itself from Israel, imposing a partial arms embargo amid growing public anger, but it has maintained deep military and political cooperation with Israel throughout its campaign in Gaza. Regardless of which challenger prevails, analysts agree that the next Labour leader will almost certainly ramp up criticism of Israel and could take far more concrete action, such as imposing full sanctions on illegal West Bank settlement goods to win back disillusioned left-wing and pro-Palestinian voters.
For Burnham, the path to the premiership remains littered with obstacles. But if he can overcome them, insiders say he is the most likely candidate to return the Labour Party to its traditional centre-left roots. One thing is certain: all leadership contenders will be forced to take a clear stance on Starmer’s handling of the Gaza crisis, and a fundamental shift in Britain’s approach to the Middle East is likely in the coming months.









