标签： North America

Four weeks after a fragile ceasefire took hold across the Persian Gulf, the truce is rapidly crumbling, with escalating tensions between the United States and Iran pushing the region to the brink of renewed full-scale conflict. At the heart of the standoff is control over the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint that has become an existential strategic and economic flashpoint for both global powers.

When the ceasefire was first announced, it opened a narrow window for diplomatic de-escalation. Negotiators from Washington and Tehran met face-to-face in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, which stepped in as a neutral mediator. But the talks concluded without any breakthrough, leaving the fragile truce hanging by a thread. Pakistani officials have continued efforts to restart dialogue, but so far their outreach has failed to bridge the deep divides between the two sides.

Both Washington and Tehran have publicly expressed willingness to reach a negotiated settlement, but their competing demands and non-negotiable red lines have blocked any path to compromise. Neither side has shown willingness to make the concessions needed to break the impasse, leaving the region just one miscalculated incident away from a return to all-out war. This standoff has created an exceptionally high risk of misperceiving each other’s intentions, a common trigger that has historically pushed unintended crises into full-blown armed conflict.

The strategic significance of the Strait of Hormusz cannot be overstated. Before the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran in February 2025, the waterway remained open to unrestricted, toll-free navigation for all commercial vessels. Since the attack, Iran has effectively demonstrated its ability to restrict access to the strait, using control over the chokepoint as a leverage tool: it acts as an offensive weapon, a source of potential revenue through tolls, and a deterrent against further attacks. In remarks to Iranian lawmakers this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Tehran’s position that the pre-war status quo will not be restored.

For the United States, allowing Iran to exert full control over the Strait of Hormuz and charge commercial shippers millions in passage tolls would amount to an unacceptable strategic defeat. But any escalation to enforce free navigation carries enormous risks, not just for the region but for the entire global economy.

The economic ripple effects of even partial closure of the strait are already being felt far beyond the Gulf. Already, global supplies of oil, natural gas, helium critical to advanced technology manufacturing, and fertilizer feedstocks are facing growing disruptions. The fertilizer shortage in particular has sparked urgent fears of widespread hunger in low-income nations that lack robust food security systems, putting millions of vulnerable people at risk the longer the closure persists.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the crisis has been marked by inconsistency and conflicting priorities, rooted in a rash initial decision to go to war that has left the U.S. trapped in a strategic bind. Trump, who has long framed himself as a champion of low energy prices for American consumers, has taken to social media to pressure oil traders against raising gasoline prices for U.S. motorists. But he remains frustrated by the resilience of the Iranian regime, which has refused to buckle under pressure from U.S. and Israeli military strikes and economic sanctions. The Islamic Republic’s security apparatus, which cracked down violently on domestic anti-government protests in January, has shown it is willing to prioritize holding onto power over the well-being of its citizens, giving it little incentive to back down under pressure.

Trump’s recent order for the U.S. Navy to escort two commercial vessels through the strait was intended as a show of force to defend freedom of navigation, but the move did little to restore pre-war traffic levels. Before the outbreak of war, 40 to 60 vessels transited the strait daily; that flow remains severely restricted, and the provocative escort mission was always guaranteed to draw a harsh response from Tehran.

Tehran’s new leadership, which has replaced the former supreme leader and multiple senior officials killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes, has signaled it is willing to escalate to set the terms of the conflict. For the regime, the gamble of renewed war is seen as a calculated risk worth taking to secure its strategic goals.

Regional tensions have spread beyond the U.S.-Iran standoff, with the United Arab Emirates emerging as a key Iranian target among Gulf Arab states. The UAE has deepened its security alliances with the U.S. and Israel in response, receiving an Iron Dome anti-missile defense system from Israel along with Israeli Defense Forces personnel to operate it – a step Israel refused to take for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia.

Iran’s targeting of the UAE’s key Port of Fujairah carries particular strategic weight. Located on the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coastline, outside the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz, Fujairah is the terminus of a major oil pipeline that allows the UAE to export crude without passing through Hormuz, and it hosts one of the region’s largest commercial oil storage facilities. While the UAE has issued public warnings to Tehran and maintains capable armed forces, it has sought to avoid direct conflict with Iran. That policy could become unsustainable if the ceasefire collapses entirely, and the UAE has already committed billions of additional dollars to purchasing advanced U.S. military hardware to bolster its defenses.

Looking ahead, Trump continues to bet that increasing pressure will force the Iranian regime to collapse and accept a deal on U.S. terms. However, he has refused to accept any agreement that would be seen as weaker than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark nuclear deal brokered by former President Barack Obama that Trump withdrew from during his first term in office, at the strong urging of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump replaced the JCPOA with a policy of “maximum pressure” that failed to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment program, and ultimately set the U.S. and Iran on the current path to a war with no clear off-ramp.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has been largely closed to commercial traffic since the United States and Israel launched air strikes against Iran. Tehran responded to the attacks by shutting down the waterway, leaving thousands of vessels and their crews stranded in the Gulf. In response to international requests to free the trapped ships, U.S. President Donald Trump has launched what he has named “Project Freedom,” a mission that threatens to reignite open hostilities between the two nations.

In a Sunday post on his Truth Social platform, Trump stated that leaders from nations across the globe had reached out to the U.S. for assistance, noting that the trapped ships belonged to neutral, uninvolved parties that had become innocent victims of the escalating conflict. Under the new operation, the U.S. military will guide trapped vessels safely out of the restricted waters around the strait. Trump framed the mission as a purely humanitarian gesture, arguing it would benefit not just global shipping interests and Middle Eastern nations, but Iran itself. He pointed to growing urgent concerns: many stranded vessels are running critically low on food and other essential supplies required to keep large crews healthy and maintain sanitary living conditions on board.

Iran has pushed back sharply against the U.S. initiative, however. Iranian officials maintain that the country retains full sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz, and have issued blunt threats to attack any foreign military force that attempts to enter or approach the waterway, specifically naming the U.S. military as an aggressive target. Senior Iranian commander Maj Gen Ali Abdollahi emphasized that all safe passage through the strait must be coordinated directly with Iran under all circumstances. A day after Trump’s announcement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the U.S. mission, writing on X that “events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis,” and adding, “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”

The scale of the humanitarian and economic crisis is substantial. The International Maritime Organisation, the United Nations body that regulates global commercial shipping, estimates that roughly 2,000 vessels and 20,000 sailors have been trapped in the Gulf since the outbreak of hostilities. Concern has risen rapidly over dwindling essential supplies and the growing negative impact of the blockade on the physical and mental health of stranded crew members.

U.S. Central Command (Centcom) has deployed a large military contingent to support the operation, including guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multiple advanced unmanned platforms, and 15,000 active service members. In a public briefing, Centcom commander Adm Brad Cooper confirmed that attack helicopters assigned to the mission had already sunk six small Iranian boats that were targeting unarmed civilian vessels. Cooper warned that U.S. forces will open fire on any Iranian craft deemed to be interfering with the mission to reopen the waterway.

Few concrete details have been released about the full scope and long-term structure of the operation, though Cooper confirmed that the ultimate goal is to reestablish a fully operational two-way shipping lane through the strait. The mission’s ambiguous framework has sparked debate over its risks: if the operation only provides navigational information and advice to crews, it would do little to mitigate Iran’s explicit threats to attack transiting vessels. If the U.S. proceeds with full military escort for all trapped ships, however, that would almost certainly lead to direct open military confrontation between the two nations. Cooper has only stated that the operation includes a broader defensive package than would be required for simple escort duty.

Mick Mulroy, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a veteran of both the U.S. Marine Corps and the CIA’s paramilitary division, told the BBC he believes Project Freedom will focus on providing air cover and defense against Iranian missile and drone attacks, rather than direct physical escort of commercial vessels through the strait. Even so, Mulroy cautioned that there is no guarantee the operation will succeed in restoring free commercial navigation. “The question is whether ships will trust their ability to get through without being attacked, and more importantly, the insurance company,” he explained. “If not, the effort will not have the impact we hoped.”

On Monday afternoon, Centcom confirmed that U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers had already transited the Strait of Hormuz as part of Project Freedom, adding that American forces were actively working to restore commercial shipping transit but provided no further operational details. The command also announced that as an initial milestone, two U.S.-flagged commercial merchant vessels had successfully passed through the strait and were continuing on their voyages safely, though it declined to release the identity of the ships. Global shipping giant Maersk later confirmed that one of its own vessels had exited the Gulf with U.S. military accompaniment. Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has directly denied any vessels have been allowed to pass through the strait.

Grant Rumley, a Middle East security expert who advised both the Biden and Trump White Houses between 2018 and 2021, noted that securing safe passage for all 2,000 trapped vessels would be an extraordinarily difficult challenge. He argued that achieving that goal would likely require a more aggressive, large-scale kinetic military operation, a outcome he views as increasingly probable. “I think that the general consensus is that a resumption of hostilities is a question of when,” he said. “Not if.”

Within hours of the operation’s launch on Monday, the Iranian military claimed it had opened fire on American and Israeli enemy destroyers, saying U.S. forces had ignored multiple warnings. Centcom immediately denied Iranian claims that one of its warships had been hit by two Iranian missiles. According to Centcom’s account, Iran fired cruise missiles at both U.S. warships and U.S.-flagged commercial vessels, and deployed drones and small speed boats to attack commercial shipping. In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump confirmed that Iran had fired on uninvolved commercial vessels, prompting the U.S. strikes on Iranian small boats.

The United Arab Emirates, a key U.S. Gulf ally that has faced repeated Iranian attacks during the ongoing conflict, confirmed that a tanker owned by its state-owned national oil company Adnoc was targeted by two drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE foreign ministry reported no crew injuries in the attack, and confirmed that at least three incoming missiles were successfully intercepted. Trump also added in his post that a suspected missile strike had hit a South Korean cargo vessel anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, in waters adjacent to the UAE.

Tensions in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz reignited dramatically on Monday, as conflicting claims of military strikes, ship attacks and port damage plunged the already volatile Persian Gulf region into a fresh crisis, just weeks after a fragile US-Iran ceasefire took hold.

The waterway, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has remained effectively closed to commercial traffic since February, when joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran prompted Tehran to block all transit. A ceasefire agreed in early April paused Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf states including the United Arab Emirates, but the waterway stayed largely blocked amid a separate US blockade on Iranian ports, leaving an estimated 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump launched what he dubbed ‘Project Freedom’, an initiative to escort stranded neutral ships out of the blocked strait. He announced on Monday that US military forces had destroyed seven Iranian fast-attack boats in the waterway, using helicopter strikes to clear a path for transiting vessels. ‘It’s all they have left,’ the president stated of the small craft. The US military later confirmed that Navy destroyers had already escorted US-flagged commercial ships through the channel earlier that day.

Iran has issued outright denials of all US claims, rejecting that any of its fast boats were targeted or sunk. Iranian officials also dismissed Washington’s assertion that it had escorted ships through the strait as ‘entirely false’, and countered that its own military had fired warning shots at a passing US warship – a claim the US military immediately denied. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed the US initiative, arguing that ‘events in the strait make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis,’ adding that ‘Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.’

The first major breakthrough for the US operation came when global shipping giant Maersk confirmed that one of its US-flagged vessels, the Alliance Fairfax, which had been stranded in the Gulf since late February, had successfully exited the strait under US military escort. The company noted that the transit was completed without any harm to the 20+ crew on board, and all personnel remain safe. Maersk said the US government had reached out to offer the military escort, which the firm accepted.

Even as the first US-escorted ship exited the waterway, multiple attacks on vessels and infrastructure were reported across the region, raising fears of a full resumption of open conflict. The UAE’s foreign ministry confirmed that a tanker owned by its state-run energy giant Adnoc was struck in the strait. South Korean officials also reported an explosion on one of its vessels anchored off the UAE coast.

UAE air defense forces also intercepted a large barrage of incoming fire, shooting down 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones. One unblocked projectile impacted near the Fujairah Oil Port – the UAE’s largest oil storage and shipping facility, located on the country’s east coast outside the Strait of Hormuz. The strike sparked a large blaze at the terminal and left three people injured. The UAE condemned the assault as a ‘dangerous escalation’ and said it reserved the right to take retaliatory action. An unnamed Iranian military official, quoted by Iranian state television, denied that Iran had any plans to target the UAE.

The unrest sent global energy markets spiking on Monday: benchmark Brent crude prices jumped more than 5% in intraday trading to push past $115 per barrel, as traders reacted to fears of disrupted supplies. Fujairah has emerged as a critical alternative export route since the strait closed, with a pipeline from Abu Dhabi’s inland oil fields delivering crude to the port for loading onto tankers, allowing limited exports to continue despite the blockade.

Additional unrest was reported elsewhere along the strait: Omani state media reported that two people were injured when a residential building in the coastal town of Bukha was targeted in an attack. Neighboring Qatar, a key regional Gulf state, issued a statement condemning the attack on the Adnoc tanker and calling for the ‘unconditional reopening’ of the Strait of Hormuz to resume global commercial shipping.

The escalation comes amid growing international pressure to resolve the months-long blockade, which has created a growing humanitarian crisis for stranded seafarers. International shipping groups have raised urgent concerns about dwindling food and medical supplies on board stuck vessels, as well as deteriorating physical and mental health for thousands of crew members trapped at sea. Trump has framed Project Freedom as a humanitarian mission, saying the US was responding to requests from nations around the world to free ‘merely neutral and innocent bystander’ ships locked in the Gulf. He has threatened to use additional force if any actor interferes with the evacuation operation, but has not laid out a clear long-term plan to reopen the strait to full commercial traffic.