分类： politics

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for his high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, growing ambiguity around his approach to Taiwan has sparked intense speculation across global capitals about the future of long-standing U.S. policy toward the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own.

Trump’s actions and public comments have painted a contradictory picture in recent months. In December last year, he approved a historic $11 billion arms package for Taiwan – the largest single weapons deal the U.S. has ever concluded with the island. To date, however, no delivery timeline has been finalized, and Trump has publicly confirmed he has already discussed the proposed sale with Xi. Beyond the arms deal debate, the U.S. leader has publicly complained that Taiwan “stole” American semiconductor industry business, and has repeatedly pressured Taipei to compensate Washington for its security commitments. Using the threat of steep new tariffs as leverage, Trump has also pushed Taiwan to commit to large-scale investments in U.S.-based advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and to purchase billions of dollars in American crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

This inconsistent approach has left policymakers and analysts in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington questioning the durability of the U.S.’s long-held commitment to Taiwan’s self-defense. Critics, particularly among Washington’s foreign policy circles that back strong U.S. support for Taipei, warn that Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy could leave Taiwan vulnerable to concessions during the summit. Retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that supporters of Taiwan are growing increasingly concerned that the island could become a bargaining chip in talks between the two global leaders.

For its part, Beijing has made clear that the Taiwan issue will be a central topic of discussion during this week’s meetings. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised the island’s status during a pre-summit call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, urging Washington to “make the right choices” on Taiwan policy to preserve bilateral stability, according to an official statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. While Rubio reaffirmed in a press briefing in Rome that long-standing U.S. policy has not shifted – stating Washington opposes any forced changes to the cross-strait status quo that would threaten global stability – he did acknowledge that Taiwan would feature on the summit’s agenda, even if it is not a formal centerpiece.

White House officials have pushed back against concerns over shifting policy, pointing out that Trump has already approved more military sales to Taiwan in the first year of his second term than former Democratic President Joe Biden approved across his full four-year term. In addition to the $11 billion arms package, Trump greenlit a $330 million deal for military aircraft parts for Taiwan in November. The Trump administration has also long pressured Taipei to increase its own defense spending, a goal that saw partial progress Friday when Taiwanese lawmakers ended months of legislative gridlock to approve a $25 billion arms purchase budget. That figure fell far short of the $40 billion proposal put forward by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, a gap that a senior anonymous Trump administration official called disappointing.

Taiwanese officials have publicly acknowledged concern over Beijing’s intensified rhetoric ahead of the summit, though they have drawn some reassurance from Rubio’s recent comments. National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen told reporters that while Beijing may attempt diplomatic maneuvering during the talks, Washington has repeatedly confirmed through both public and private channels that its Taiwan policy remains unchanged.

China analysts note that Xi’s core goal will be to pressure Trump to roll back elements of U.S. support for Taipei, aligned with Beijing’s long-standing position that Taiwan is a breakaway province that must eventually be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. Since 1979, the U.S. has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity”: it acknowledges Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China, but does not explicitly endorse that position, opposes Taiwanese independence, rejects unilateral changes to the status quo, and provides informal security support and arms to Taipei.

Analysts say Xi will likely push Trump to curb U.S. arms sales and impose informal restrictions on high-level U.S. official visits to the island, taking advantage of Trump’s already demonstrated willingness to deviate from traditional diplomatic norms. In February, Trump made headlines by confirming he consults Xi on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, breaking with decades of established policy. Patricia Kim, a China expert with the Brookings Institution’s Assessing China Project, warned that even if no formal policy shift is announced, Trump’s well-documented tendency to make off-the-cuff remarks could create unintended shifts that upend cross-strait stability.

Uncertainty over the U.S. commitment has also been amplified by Trump’s muted response to a recent diplomatic rift between U.S. ally Japan and China over Taiwan. In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute a regional security threat that could qualify as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, justifying a military response. Trump spoke with both Takaichi and Xi that same month, but has largely avoided taking a public stance on the dispute, noting in March talks with Takaichi that he would “be speaking Japan’s praises when I’m in China with President Xi.” Additional scrutiny came after the 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy omitted any direct mention of Taiwan.

Still, many analysts point to one key factor that may protect Taiwan from major policy shifts: its dominant position in the global semiconductor industry, a sector critical to U.S. technological competitiveness in its race with China. Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, noted that Trump is well aware of Taiwan’s central role to U.S. economic and technological growth, creating a baseline that makes drastic policy shifts unlikely.

Edgard Kagan, a former senior State Department official who worked on East Asia policy for both the Trump and Biden administrations and now holds the China Studies chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, added that while Trump approaches diplomacy from a transactional perspective, his administration has never treated core U.S. interests in the region as negotiable trade-offs. “The president understands leverage. My experience of being in meetings with him, he has a very, very acute sense of how to use it,” Kagan said. “And so I think that the idea that there’s going to be a trade where the president sort of sacrifices U.S. interests in Taiwan in order to get other things — I think it’s unlikely based on my own experience of how he operates.”

In the end, the outcome of the summit for Taiwan will likely be measured by the public statements the two leaders release. After Trump’s last in-person meeting with Xi in October, he claimed the Chinese leader had not raised the Taiwan issue, and that Chinese officials “know the consequences” of any military action against the island. For Taipei, Nachman noted, the best possible outcome is that the issue is not discussed publicly, or addressed only in passing.

In a major development reshaping Philippine politics, the House of Representatives has approved a second impeachment vote against Vice President Sara Duterte, clearing the way for a Senate trial that could permanently end her presidential ambitions for the 2028 election.

Monday’s vote crossed the required one-third threshold easily, with 255 out of 290 attending lawmakers backing the impeachment move. The case centers on two core allegations: unauthorized misuse of public funds during Duterte’s tenure as vice president, and public threats she made against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta Marcos, and former House Speaker Martin Romualdez.

This is not the first time impeachment proceedings have been brought against Duterte on identical grounds. The first attempt in 2025 was derailed by the Philippine Supreme Court, which blocked the process on a technicality before it could reach the Senate for trial. The case was revived earlier this year, and last week a House investigative committee concluded there was enough credible evidence to support moving forward with impeachment.

Duterte has repeatedly dismissed the proceedings as a politically motivated sham. In a formal written statement responding to the committee’s ruling, she called the case “nothing more than a scrap of paper,” and refused to participate in the committee hearings, citing what she claims is a biased, partisan process.

The lopsided House vote is widely seen as a clear demonstration of Marcos’ retained influence over the lower chamber of Congress. Unlike House members, who are elected by individual legislative districts and typically align with the sitting president to secure patronage and resources for their constituencies, the 24-member Senate is elected nationally and has long served as a launching pad for future presidential and vice presidential candidates.

The path to a conviction remains far from certain, however. Half of the Senate seats were up for grabs in the 2025 midterm elections, and candidates aligned with Duterte outperformed those running under Marcos’ ruling coalition. In a political system defined by shifting dynastic alliances and flexible multi-party loyalties, forecasting the outcome of an impeachment trial is exceptionally difficult.

For Duterte, a conviction would result in immediate permanent disqualification from holding any public office, scrapping her well-publicized plan to run for president in 2028. The 47-year-old politician, daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, currently holds a commanding lead in early presidential polling. A March 2026 survey by Manila-based pollster WR Numero placed her 17 percentage points ahead of her closest competitor.

The current rift between Duterte and Marcos marks a dramatic reversal of fortune for the once-powerful political alliance that swept both into office in the 2022 national election. Duterte was originally the frontrunner to succeed her father as president in 2022, but agreed to run for vice president alongside Marcos to unify their support bases and block a rising reformist opposition. The ticket won election by a landslide, but the partnership quickly fractured as the two leaders pursued conflicting political agendas.

Tensions boiled over after Marcos allies led by Romualdez launched an investigation into allegations of misappropriated funds in Duterte’s vice presidential office. During a fiery late-night online address at the height of the probe, Duterte openly stated she had instructed an associate that if she were killed, the associates should target Marcos, the first lady, and Romualdez.

The relationship deteriorated further last March, when Marcos granted authority to the International Criminal Court to arrest former President Rodrigo Duterte, who is currently detained at The Hague awaiting trial on crimes against humanity charges linked to thousands of deaths during his controversial war on drugs.

In a major political shakeup that has sent shockwaves through the Philippines, the country’s House of Representatives delivered a historic vote on Monday, approving the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte by an overwhelming margin over a trio of serious allegations. The accusations leveled against Duterte include undeclared unexplained assets, the improper use of public government funds, and even threats to arrange the assassination of sitting President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Dominance of Marcos Jr.’s political allies in the lower chamber shaped the final outcome, which landed at 255 votes in favor of impeachment to just 26 votes against, with nine lawmakers choosing to abstain from the historic ballot. Two separate impeachment complaints brought against the vice president will now advance to the Philippine Senate, where the upper legislative chamber will be convened as a formal impeachment tribunal to conduct Duterte’s trial.

Duterte, who is the daughter of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, one of the country’s most polarizing and influential modern political figures, has issued a general denial of all wrongdoing connected to the allegations. She has not, however, addressed the specific criminal claims brought against her in any public detailed response.

This is not the first time the vice president has faced an impeachment vote: in 2023, the House similarly advanced impeachment proceedings against her, but Duterte avoided a Senate trial after the Supreme Court ordered the attempt halted on a constitutional technicality. It remains unclear whether the new impeachment attempt will face similar legal challenges, or if the Senate tribunal will move forward to weigh the merits of the accusations against the country’s second-highest elected official.

Against the backdrop of a prolonged Middle East conflict that has upended global energy markets, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a public appeal for nationwide austerity measures to cushion the economic blow of skyrocketing global energy prices. Addressing a gathering in the southern Indian city of Hyderabad on Sunday, Modi outlined a series of voluntary cuts to energy and import-reliant consumption, framing the choices as an act of modern-day patriotism amid an unprecedented national economic challenge.

For nearly 30 years, no single figure has shaped Thai politics more profoundly than Thaksin Shinawatra – a former police officer turned business magnate turned prime minister, whose legacy remains one of the most divisive and influential forces in modern Southeast Asian politics, even decades after he first left office.

Thaksin’s path to power began in 1949, when he was born in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai. He launched his professional career as a police officer, earning a government scholarship in 1973 to pursue a master’s degree in criminal justice in the United States. Upon returning to Thailand, he pivoted to the private sector, building a billion-dollar telecommunications empire by the end of the 1980s. In 1998, he launched his own political vehicle, the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) Party, a movement that rapidly upended Thailand’s decades-old political order.

In the 2001 general election, Thaksin stormed to electoral victory in a landslide, defeating the long-dominant traditional establishment of the Democrat Party. His populist platform resonated deeply across class lines: low-income and rural voters flocked to his promises of low-cost universal healthcare and widespread debt relief, paired with his unapologetic criticism of the entrenched Bangkok elite and nationalist policy agenda. Meanwhile, big business embraced his CEO-style governance and pro-growth “Thaksinomics” policies, which pulled Thailand out of the economic stagnation left by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and sparked a new national economic boom. Thaksin also earned widespread praise for his swift, coordinated response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which devastated large swathes of southwestern Thailand.

But his tenure was not without sharp controversy. He faced widespread public and international criticism for the 2003 war on drugs, which left more than 2,500 people dead in extrajudicial killings, as well as a scandal over his government’s decision to cover up an outbreak of avian flu. Thailand’s anti-corruption commission found he had failed to disclose his full personal wealth (though he was ultimately acquitted on that charge), and he faced heavy backlash over his government’s handling of rising separatist violence in the country’s Muslim-majority southern region. Backed by his loyal base of rural supporters, who adopted the color red and became known as the “red shirts” movement, Thaksin weathered every political storm: he made history as Thailand’s first elected prime minister to complete a full four-year term, and won a landslide re-election in 2005.

Even as he built unparalleled popular support, Thaksin emerged as a deeply polarizing figure, drawing fierce opposition from Thailand’s conservative establishment: the Bangkok elite, the royal military, and pro-monarchy activists, who adopted the color yellow and became known as the “yellow shirts” movement. It was a business deal that ultimately triggered his ouster: in early 2006, Thaksin’s family sold its stake in Shin Corp, the country’s largest telecommunications group, netting $1.9 billion. The deal sparked mass public anger, with critics arguing the family had illegally avoided tax obligations and transferred control of a critical national asset to foreign investors based in Singapore.

Amid months of massive street protests, Thaksin called a snap general election in April 2006 to force a popular verdict on his leadership. Main opposition parties boycotted the vote, and a large share of ballots were cast as informal “no votes.” Thaksin initially announced he would step down, only to return to office just a month later. By September 2006, with months of political gridlock and unrest paralyzing the country, the Royal Thai Army seized power in a military coup while Thaksin was traveling abroad.

What followed has been 18 years of political upheaval, with Thaksin pulling the strings of Thai politics from exile and through a dynastic line of proxy leaders. After briefly returning to Thailand following a 2007 election won by his allies, courts empowered by the new military-backed constitution opened a wave of corruption cases against Thaksin and his family. Convicted of corruption, Thaksin fled Thailand once again, beginning 15 years of self-imposed exile centered primarily in Dubai. Even from abroad, he retained control of his political movement: Thai Rak Thai was dissolved in 2007, its successor the People’s Power Party was dissolved in 2008, but the third iteration – Pheu Thai Party – survived. In 2011, Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra led Pheu Thai to a landslide victory, becoming Thailand’s first female prime minister, before she too was ousted by a court disqualification and a second military coup. In the 2019 election, Pheu Thai won more seats than any rival party, but was blocked from forming government by conservative parties allied with the military.

It was not until the 2023 election that the Shinawatra political dynasty saw a shift in fortunes. In a major upset, the progressive Move Forward Party won the most seats in the lower house of parliament, forcing Thailand’s long-standing anti-Thaksin conservatives to strike a grand bargain with Pheu Thai to exclude Move Forward from power. As part of the deal, Thaksin returned to Thailand in 2023 after 15 years in exile, and was greeted by hundreds of cheering supporters upon landing in Bangkok.

He was immediately taken to the Supreme Court to begin serving an eight-year prison sentence for his decades-old corruption convictions, which Thaksin has always maintained were politically motivated. Within 24 hours, however, he was transferred to a luxury private ward at Police General Hospital after reporting heart complications. Following a formal plea for royal clemency, the King of Thailand commuted his sentence to just one year. Thaksin remained in the hospital for six months before receiving parole and returning to his private Bangkok residence.

That peace did not last. In September 2025, the Supreme Court ruled that Thaksin’s extended hospital stay had been unlawful, finding the former prime minister “knew or could perceive that he was not in a critical or emergency condition.” He was immediately taken to prison to serve out the remainder of his one-year sentence. In a separate high-profile case that same month, a court acquitted Thaksin of charges of lese-majeste – insulting the monarchy – which carry decades-long prison sentences in Thailand.

The same month that Thaksin was sent back to prison, his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who had become prime minister in 2024 after the coalition’s original leader was removed by the constitutional court, was also disqualified and removed from office over a leaked controversial phone call with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. A breakaway faction from the Pheu Thai-led coalition subsequently installed a new prime minister from outside the Shinawatra circle.

Despite the string of major political and legal setbacks, both Thaksin and his family have vowed to continue their political fight. In a public statement released to social media shortly after the Supreme Court ordered his return to prison, the 76-year-old former prime minister wrote: “even though I lose my physical freedom, I will still have freedom of thought for the benefit of my country and its people. I will maintain my physical and mental strength to spend the rest of my life serving the monarchy, Thailand and the Thai people.”

For three decades, Thaksin Shinawatra has dominated Thai politics, surviving coups, convictions, and exiles – and even behind bars, he remains one of the most powerful forces shaping the country’s future.