分类： business

TOKYO – Geopolitical volatility stemming from the ongoing conflict between Iran and regional rivals has sent mixed results across Asian equity markets on Tuesday, as investor anxiety over potential disruptions to global energy trade roiled financial systems worldwide.

Japan’s headline Nikkei 225 index erased early opening gains to fall 0.6% in morning trading, settling at 60,433.79. The pullback came even as government data confirmed the Japanese economy expanded for two consecutive quarters through the first three months of 2025, with consumer spending outperforming expert projections to drive the growth.

In South Korea, the downturn was far steeper: the Kospi index dropped more than 4% in early session trading before trimming losses to 3.5% by midday, hitting 7,249.73. Top technology exporters bore the brunt of the selloff, with Samsung Electronics sliding 3.8% and memory chip manufacturer SK Hynix falling 4%, mirroring broad losses for U.S. tech stocks on Wall Street in the prior overnight session.

Not all Asian markets ended the morning in negative territory, however. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.9% to reach 8,582.80, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 0.5% to 25,811.28. Mainland China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite bucked the positive regional trend to slip 0.3% to 4,121.11.

The mixed performance in Asia followed a choppy trading session on Wall Street Monday, where the S&P 500 swung between positive and negative territory throughout the day before closing down 0.1% at 7,403.05. The drop marked the benchmark index’s second losing session since it hit an all-time record high just one week prior. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed to add 0.3%, closing at 49,686.12, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite dropped 0.5% to 26,090.73.

In global energy markets, crude oil prices retreated from recent volatile spikes amid shifting signals over the conflict’s impact on trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest chokepoint for crude oil exports. Benchmark U.S. crude fell $1.36 to settle at $103.02 per barrel, while the global benchmark Brent crude dropped $1.99 to $110.11 per barrel.

Oil prices have swung wildly in recent weeks as investors weigh the risk of prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iran conflict has effectively closed to commercial tankers. The disruption hits major energy importers like Japan particularly hard, as the country relies on the strait for nearly all of its crude oil imports. Before the conflict escalated, Brent crude traded at roughly $70 per barrel.

Prices pulled back from recent peaks after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced via social media that a planned U.S. military strike on Iran had been postponed, noting that “serious negotiations” are currently underway to end the ongoing conflict.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed as high as 4.63% before retreating to 4.59%, matching its level from late Friday.

U.S. airline giant Delta Air Lines closed nearly flat Monday after a volatile session driven by shifting oil prices. The stock got an early lift after confirmation that Berkshire Hathaway, the storied investment firm led by new chief executive after the retirement of legendary value investor Warren Buffett, had acquired more than $2.6 billion in Delta stock. Buffett built Berkshire Hathaway’s reputation for decades by picking undervalued assets during market downturns.

Investors across global markets are now turning their attention to a packed week of corporate earnings reports. Chipmaking giant Nvidia is set to release its latest quarterly results after markets close Wednesday, and the firm has consistently beaten analyst consensus estimates in recent quarters while forecasting strong ongoing growth. Major U.S. retailers including Target, Home Depot and Walmart will also publish their quarterly earnings throughout the week.

In foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar edged slightly higher to 158.96 Japanese yen, up from 158.84 yen in the prior trading session. The euro dipped slightly to $1.1643, down from $1.1657.

AP Business Writer Stan Choe contributed reporting to this article.

TOKYO – In a surprising show of economic resilience against global energy market turmoil triggered by the war in Iran, Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first three months of 2024, government data released Tuesday confirms. This marks the second consecutive quarter of positive growth for the world’s third-largest economy, defying analyst forecasts that had predicted a much slower expansion amid soaring energy costs.

Seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP), the broad measure of all goods and services produced in the country, grew 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, following a 0.2% moderate gain in the final quarter of 2023. The economy had contracted in the third quarter of last year, making back-to-back growth a welcome milestone for Japanese policymakers. The annualized figure represents what full-year growth would be if the current quarterly pace of expansion sustained across all four quarters.

Preliminary Cabinet Office data shows that broad-based spending gains across consumer, business, and public sectors drove the stronger-than-expected results. Private consumption, which makes up a large share of Japan’s GDP, rose 0.3% from the previous quarter, equal to an annualized growth rate of 1.1%. Public demand from government spending projects and initiatives also climbed 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, providing additional support to overall economic output.

On the trade front, the latest quarter saw exports grow 1.7% outpacing a 0.5% increase in total imports, a net positive that further lifted GDP growth.

For resource-scarce Japan, the fallout from the Iran war has created significant headwinds, most notably in the form of skyrocketing global oil prices. Before the conflict began, Brent crude traded around $70 per barrel; current prices have surged to nearly $110 per barrel. The spike stems from effective disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil exports bound for Asian markets including Japan. In response, Tokyo has already released portions of its national oil reserves and is actively developing alternative shipping routes to stabilize supply.

The energy supply squeeze has already begun to ripple through domestic Japanese industries, with shortages of naphtha — a versatile oil-based product used in manufacturing everything from plastic goods to construction materials — drawing widespread media attention in recent weeks. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has pledged to take decisive action to secure adequate supplies and sustain ongoing economic expansion, a commitment that will likely require substantial new government spending.

Most economic analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Japan’s growth trajectory in the coming quarters. A recent report from the Japan Center for Economic Research projected that the country will continue to log moderate growth, supported by rising corporate investment in artificial intelligence and increased government defense spending.

“The breadth of ongoing demand expansion points to a high-quality growth trajectory, which may reinforce evidence that inflationary pressures are broadening across the Japanese economy,” noted Naomi Fink, chief global strategist at Amova Asset Management.

Rising energy costs are already pushing domestic prices higher, and the stronger-than-expected first quarter growth could push the Bank of Japan to move forward with an interest rate hike. The central bank has spent years holding interest rates near or below zero to stimulate stagnant growth and weak inflation, but shifting economic conditions have sparked expectations of a policy pivot. While Japan’s current inflation rate remains lower than that of the United States, Japanese workers have yet to see wage gains keep pace with rising living costs.

Financial markets reacted modestly to the new GDP data on Tuesday. Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index, which has hit repeated record highs in recent trading sessions, dipped 0.6% during morning trading following the data release.

Across major global cities, chaotic scenes unfolded this weekend over the launch of Swatch’s highly anticipated collaboration with luxury watchmaker Audemars Piguet, the Royal Pop bioceramic pocket watch. From violent crowd control measures in France to fistfights in Italy and all-night snaking lines outside retail locations in London, Singapore, and New York, the launch has become the latest flashpoint for modern “drop culture” where coveted limited-edition status symbols collide with lucrative resale market opportunities.

At the center of the global mania is a timepiece that retails for approximately $400, but was being flipped within hours for thousands of dollars on secondary platforms. By the first business day after the launch, dozens of Royal Pop listings had already appeared on eBay, with one seller advertising an “IN HAND” unit for 3,055.58 British pounds, equal to more than $4,000, and inviting best offers from interested buyers.

This frenzy marks a noticeable shift from the hyped product drops that defined Swatch and other major brands over the past generation, according to industry analysts. Pierre-Yves Donze, a business history professor at Osaka University Graduate School of Economics, explained that unlike earlier drops where buyers pursued collectibles out of genuine fandom, today’s rush is almost entirely driven by the prospect of quick profit.

“It looks like people got crazy to get a Royal Pop to make money through resale, not because they are fans of the Swatch,” Donze noted. “People want money, especially. Royal Pop is not like a cool product, but a way to make easy money.”

Swatch, which has decades of experience leveraging hype around new product launches, moved quickly to calm the frenzy. The Swiss watchmaker confirmed Monday that there is no supply shortage of the Royal Pop, pushing back against the narrative that the timepiece is extremely limited. The company noted that launch-day disruptions were only reported in roughly 20 of its 220 global stores that rolled out the new watch, attributing the issues to unexpectedly large turnout that overwhelmed shopping mall infrastructure, not limited stock.

Social media has amplified the hype dramatically: the company reported that content tagged for the Royal Pop has accumulated more than 11 billion views across major platforms since the launch was announced. This mirrors the 2022 MoonSwatch launch, a collaboration between Swatch and its sister luxury brand Omega that sparked similar global in-store rushes amid pandemic restrictions. Swatch’s history of hype dates all the way back to the 1980s, when it revolutionized the watch industry with affordable, mass-produced, fashion-forward timepieces that broke from the tradition of expensive heirloom watches.

This year’s launch brought far more disruption than many industry observers expected. In London, the iconic Carnaby Street and Oxford Street Swatch stores saw crowds of dozens of people block sidewalks ahead of opening Sunday, prompting local police to close all Swatch locations across London and multiple other U.K. cities. Similar disruptions were reported across Europe and North America: stores were shuttered across the Netherlands, and New York’s Times Square location developed what attendees described as a “mosh pit” vibe.

In France, the situation escalated to require riot control measures. The French national police service confirmed that officers deployed tear gas grenades and spray to disperse unruly crowds outside multiple Swatch boutiques. At the large Westfield Parly 2 shopping mall west of Paris, television footage showed officers in riot gear and helmets stationed outside the shuttered Swatch outlet. In Lyon, officers used a tear gas grenade after the crowd ignored repeated orders to disperse from the city’s central Bellecour Square, while municipal police in Montpellier deployed tear gas spray. Swatch’s French division announced via Instagram that six stores would close for the day “because of public security considerations.”

Unlike many modern brands that have moved hyped product drops entirely online to avoid safety and liability risks, Swatch chose to release the Royal Pop exclusively through in-store retail locations, a decision that industry critics say amplified the frenzy. The exclusive in-person model created perfect conditions for resellers to monopolize initial stock, driving up the potential profits for those who managed to secure a watch early. Reports from launch weekend noted sporadic injuries, multiple arrests, and minor property damage connected to the overcrowded crowds.

London-based fashion and cultural critic Odunayo Ojo noted that most streetwear and sneaker brands abandoned in-person exclusive drops years ago over safety concerns. “Either Swatch ‘didn’t get the memo,’ he said, underestimated the draw to the new product or strategically hyped the drop to pump sales. Swatch already has a track record of understanding how these things go,” Ojo explained on his YouTube channel Fashion Roadman.

By Monday, the long lines outside most Swatch locations had dissipated, with onlookers in Paris noting that most initial stock had already sold out. In a public reassurance to consumers, Swatch confirmed that the Royal Pop will remain available for purchase through retail locations for months to come, with new shipments already en route to restock stores around the world.

More than 11 weeks into the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, widespread economic disruption is rippling through the interconnected industrial supply chains of Asia, driven by a rapidly deepening shortage of critical petrochemical products, most notably naphtha. Before the outbreak of hostilities, nearly all naphtha exported from Middle Eastern producers was destined for Asian markets, according to Darryl Xu, principal analyst for base chemicals and feedstocks at ICIS Analytics based in Singapore. Middle Eastern suppliers account for roughly 65% of all naphtha imports into Asia, but shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz have halted the vast majority of these cargoes, and alternative supply sources are unable to fully offset the gap, Xu explained. Naphtha, a fundamental derivative of crude petroleum, is a core input for manufacturing solvents and the resin used in commercial printing inks. Persistent supply shortages have the potential to disrupt sectors spanning food packaging, consumer goods, medical equipment manufacturing and infrastructure construction materials across the region. Last week, major Japanese snack manufacturer Calbee announced it would transition packaging for a selection of its potato chip lines to simplified black-and-white packaging, labeled explicitly as “packaging for conserving petroleum materials.” “The company will revise the packaging specifications of some of its products as an interim measure, with the highest priority placed on ensuring a stable supply of products,” Calbee stated in an official release Tuesday. Despite these industry adaptations, Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kei Sato told reporters the Japanese government had not received any reports of immediate, widespread disruptions to naphtha or printing ink supplies, and maintains the country has secured sufficient stockpiles to meet near-term demand, Reuters reported. In the Republic of Korea, growing anxiety is mounting across the food packaging sector, as the national government works to implement emergency measures to stabilize volatile supplies. Local industry leaders report that raw material costs have surged 40 to 50% since the outbreak of the conflict. The ROK and Japan rank among the most vulnerable Northeast Asian economies to naphtha supply shocks, explained Kwon Seok-joon, an associate professor of chemical engineering at Sungkyunkwan University. In the first half of 2026, roughly 45 to 47% of the ROK’s total naphtha supply is imported, and more than three-quarters of those imported volumes originate from Middle Eastern producers, Kwon noted. Beyond the immediate shipping disruptions, the greater long-term risk stems from the structural vulnerabilities inherent in the ROK’s petrochemical sector, which is structured around naphtha refining, Kwon added. While Japan also faces high exposure to supply disruptions, the ROK’s vertically integrated petrochemical industry is far more dependent on naphtha-based refineries, leaving downstream manufacturing sectors including plastics, rubber, packaging and paints disproportionately exposed to shocks. “If the current situation continues for several more months, the sustainability of these industries could become very fragile,” Kwon warned. Even if full navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is restored immediately, naphtha supplies will not rebound quickly to pre-conflict levels, due to accumulated shipping backlogs, permanently elevated freight and insurance costs, and mismatched contracting terms between existing Middle Eastern supply agreements and newly sourced alternative cargoes, he added. Following the outbreak of the crisis, buyers are now paying price premiums of up to $150 per metric ton to secure available naphtha cargoes, Xu said, while major Asian producers of plastics and olefins — the foundational building blocks of the global petrochemical sector — have been forced to cut operating rates to minimum levels. Even at reduced output, a single large olefins plant still requires more than 150,000 tons of naphtha to maintain operations. Kwon projected that the ongoing crisis will likely compel policymakers and industry leaders across major Asian economies to implement long-term structural adjustments to reduce reliance on single-source Middle Eastern energy and petrochemical inputs.