Global Pulse

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  • How Yemen’s renewed civil war could set the whole region ablaze

    How Yemen’s renewed civil war could set the whole region ablaze

    While high-profile tensions between Washington and Tehran have dominated global headlines in 202X, a rapidly intensifying conflict in Yemen between the Iran-aligned Houthi movement, the internationally recognized Yemeni government backed by Riyadh, and Saudi Arabia itself is emerging as a threat of equal consequence to regional stability and global energy markets. This long-simmering conflict has gained new momentum this year, amplified by overlapping geopolitical alignments that draw in major global powers and raise the risk of an uncontrolled escalation.

    Yemen’s internal conflict carries layers of complexity that cannot be overstated, with violence deeply intertwined with broader regional rivalries between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as the ongoing standoff between the United States, Israel, and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The competing alliances in the conflict have divided major global powers: Iran provides military and political backing to the Houthis (officially named Ansar Allah, or Partisans of God), while Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s internationally recognized governing body, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). The U.S. has aligned with its long-time de facto ally Saudi Arabia, while Russia and China stand alongside Iran. Most recently, Saudi regional allies Turkey and Pakistan have finalized plans to activate a newly signed mutual defense agreement, committing to deploy troops to defend Saudi territory if it comes under further Houthi attack.

    With so many interconnected stakeholders holding competing interests, analysts warn the conflict could spiral outward rapidly, engulfing the entire Middle East and sending shockwaves through already strained global fuel supplies.

    Against the backdrop of a stalemate in the direct U.S.-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz – the critical chokepoint that previously carried 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas trade – the Houthis have stepped up their operations to support their Iranian backers. Holding control of roughly one-third of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, the Houthi movement has consolidated its hold over another strategically vital waterway: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Since July, the group has made steady territorial gains across Yemen as it pushes to seize full control of the country, while launching repeated targeted attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, commercial tankers, and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh.

    A recent Houthi attack has once again halted crude oil pumping through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a key export route Riyadh has relied on to ship oil via Bab el-Mandeb after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to regular commercial traffic amid the U.S.-Iran standoff. In response, combined Yemeni and Saudi forces have launched a large-scale counteroffensive to retake territory held by the Houthis, bringing the country back to the brink of full-scale civil war and threatening to plunge Yemeni civilians into an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe.

    Riyadh has formally requested that Washington carry out direct airstrikes against Houthi positions, but U.S. President Donald Trump has declined to commit American troops to active combat, offering only support from U.S. intelligence and military advisors. Trump has made clear he has no interest in expanding the existing U.S.-Iran conflict and drawing the U.S. into another protracted Middle Eastern war, though the risk of a full-scale resumption of hostilities with Iran remains elevated. Observers also note that Trump is acutely aware of the impact of ongoing conflict on American consumers, who face soaring gasoline prices and mounting cost-of-living pressures. With U.S. midterm elections just one month away, Trump’s Republican Party is scrambling to shore up its support among voters, making new military entanglement a politically risky move.

    With no direct U.S. military support on the table, Saudi Arabia has turned to its new security partners Turkey and Pakistan. For weeks, both countries had hesitated to commit to intervention, balancing their alliance with Saudi Arabia against the risk of alienating Iran and its major strategic partners Russia and China, but they finalized their commitment to deploy military forces this week.

    The renewed outbreak of fighting has already inflicted devastating harm on Yemeni civilians: more than 800 people have been killed, 3,000 injured, and 158,000 displaced since hostilities escalated. This death toll comes on top of the hundreds of thousands of Yemenis who have died since the original civil war and Saudi-led intervention began in 2014–15, with many deaths caused not just by direct fighting, but by secondary crises including widespread hunger, preventable disease, and the total collapse of health infrastructure and basic services.

    The worsening conflict in Yemen carries growing risks for the entire global economy. While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to regular traffic due to widespread fears of attacks on commercial vessels, a small number of tankers have been able to transit the waterway either after reaching agreements with Iran’s newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority or under the protection of U.S. naval escorts. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently claimed that 13 million barrels of crude oil are passing through the strait daily, a figure Iranian officials have immediately disputed.

    On October 4, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reaffirmed that the strait will not fully reopen until the U.S. meets all of Iran’s core demands: a full ceasefire across all fronts, an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian assets held abroad. Compounding this disruption, the Houthis announced a full blockade of Saudi ports in July and began targeting Saudi-linked commercial shipping in the Red Sea, a move that is expected to worsen already severe disruptions to global oil supplies.

    At its core, this expanding, multi-dimensional crisis is rooted in the U.S.-Iran conflict. If Trump opts to escalate hostilities with Iran through the use of additional lethal force, Iranian officials have made clear they will retaliate aggressively, and have warned that U.S. Arab allies in the Persian Gulf could face far more severe targeting than in previous rounds of conflict. The entire regional situation remains a tinderbox, and only a de-escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran, followed by a return to negotiated settlement, can prevent full-scale conflict. While a negotiated agreement remains a distant prospect at this stage, it is still within reach, argues emeritus professor of Middle Eastern Studies Amin Saikal of the Australian National University, the University of Western Australia, and Victoria University.

    This analysis is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say foreign warships have retreated from the Gulf

    Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say foreign warships have retreated from the Gulf

    A senior Iranian military commander has claimed that advanced defense capabilities of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have successfully compelled foreign naval deployments to retreat hundreds of kilometers from Iranian territorial waters, state-run news agency IRNA has reported.

    Brigadier-General Yadollah Javani, deputy head of the IRGC’s political bureau, attributed this shift in military presence across the Gulf and Sea of Oman to the IRGC’s expanded arsenal of precision missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and growing naval power. “Foreign warships used to cruise freely through Gulf waters in large numbers just years ago,” Javani stated in his remarks. “Now, hostile fleets have pulled back more than 1,000 kilometers from our borders and lack the courage to approach our territorial waters.”

    The commander added that long-term stability and peace in the region will depend on two core outcomes: collective security frameworks led by regional Islamic nations, and the full withdrawal of what he described as foreign aggressor forces from the area.

    The strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Gulf to the Arabian Sea, has emerged as the central flashpoint in this standoff. Since the outbreak of regional conflict in February, Iran has consolidated de facto military dominance over the chokehold, which is the backbone of global energy trade. The waterway has been a source of naming dispute for decades: Iran refers to it as part of the historically named Persian Gulf, while Arab League states have adopted the term “Arabian Gulf” in recent decades.

    Before the February conflict, roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait every day, equal to one-fifth of all global daily oil consumption. Six months into the conflict, an estimated 10 to 14 percent of global oil supply remained cut off from global markets as shipping disruptions rattled energy markets.

    In recent weeks, however, transit volumes have rebounded almost to pre-conflict levels, a shift driven by behind-the-scenes negotiations between Iran and other Gulf states, paired with a recovery in Tehran’s own crude export volumes. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed on Monday that 17 million barrels of crude transited the strait that day, marking the highest daily volume recorded since the conflict first disrupted shipping through the waterway.

    Despite the rebound in energy flows, the strategic contest over the strait remains intense. Countering Iran’s regional influence and retaining control over energy supply chokepoints remains a top national security priority for the United States.

    On Sunday, Associated Press reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated Washington’s commitment to controlling the waterway, describing the U.S. naval blockade posture around the strait as “ironclad.” Hegseth added that U.S. President Donald Trump retains all possible policy and military options to respond if Iran continues what he called “provocative action” in the area. “Iran tries to manipulate security around the Strait of Hormuz, but the fact is they do not control this waterway — we do,” Hegseth told reporters.

  • Exclusive: UK consul-general to Palestine set to leave Jerusalem before Israel’s closure deadline

    Exclusive: UK consul-general to Palestine set to leave Jerusalem before Israel’s closure deadline

    A decades-old diplomatic presence in occupied East Jerusalem is drawing to a close this week, after Israel ordered the United Kingdom’s 200-year-old consulate serving Palestine to shut its doors by a Thursday deadline, multiple sources confirmed to Middle East Eye. British Consul-General Helen Winterton and her team are expected to depart the mission, based in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood — an area where Palestinian residents have faced repeated displacement threats amid ongoing Israeli settlement expansion — and relocate their operations to Amman, Jordan, where they will continue work in exile with the hope of eventually returning.

    The order to close the consulate was issued last month by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, a retaliatory measure after the new UK Labour government banned all trade with Israeli settlements built illegally on occupied Palestinian territory. Under the terms of the order, once all British diplomatic staff exit occupied Palestinian territory, none will be permitted to re-enter without explicit Israeli government approval. Multiple insiders note the closure is likely permanent unless Israel’s current governing coalition is replaced in future elections.

    While the exit of the top diplomatic leadership is confirmed, negotiations over the mission’s future remain ongoing, according to senior sources. A small skeleton crew could potentially remain on-site to maintain limited operations, though no final agreement has been reached. The imminent departure of Winterton puts an end to widespread speculation that the UK would choose to defy Israel’s order and keep the consulate operating against the deadline.

    Earlier this week, Israeli media reported that the UK was preparing a reciprocal retaliatory measure, planning to expel Israeli diplomats and their families from London in response to the closure. The UK Foreign Office has declined to confirm or deny those reports, with a government spokesperson telling MEE that “we will not go into detail on live discussions about the future of the British Consulate General in Jerusalem. The protection and wellbeing of our staff is our priority.” Last week, British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband noted that the government was “looking at all our options,” and stressed that UK officials have no desire to see the mission close.

    “We do not want this to happen – because it would damage the very important work that we are doing helping people in those communities, including Palestinians,” Miliband said. “The consulate has been there for nearly 200 years, and this is a long-standing position that we have had.”

    The UK’s decision is being closely watched by other European diplomatic missions based in East Jerusalem, including those of France and Spain, whose governments fear they could be targeted with similar expulsion orders if the UK complies with Israel’s demand.

    Unlike the UK’s main embassy in Tel Aviv, which serves Israeli citizens and bilateral relations with the Israeli state, the East Jerusalem consulate has been the primary diplomatic link between the UK and Palestinian communities across Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza for nearly two centuries. Multiple Palestinians told MEE the mission plays a unique role: it documents human rights abuses against Palestinians in occupied territory and reports those findings directly to the UK government, a function the Tel Aviv embassy has never filled.

    Earlier this month, the new UK Labour government took a historic step, formally recognizing Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory as illegal, aligning UK policy with the 2024 landmark advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice. That official recognition preceded the trade ban on settlement goods that prompted Israel’s retaliatory closure order.

    The looming closure has drawn widespread criticism from across UK political and civic spheres. Former British Attorney General Dominic Grieve KC argued in a recent legal opinion that Israel’s order amounts to “an unlawful assertion of sovereignty over occupied Palestinian territory. Successive British governments have affirmed that Israel’s rights in East Jerusalem are limited to those of an occupying power.”

    Emily Thornberry, chair of the UK Parliament’s influential Foreign Affairs Committee, told MEE: “I hope that Israel will not go through with the closure of a consulate which has served Britons and Palestinians since 1838. Britain should not allow Israel to do this.” Zack Polanski, leader of the UK Green Party, echoed that criticism, calling on the UK to defy the order. “East Jerusalem is illegally occupied Palestinian territory, and Israel has no sovereignty over it. The UK must ignore Israel’s order and keep the British Consulate open,” Polanski said. He added that closing the mission “would further isolate Palestinians and weaken Britain’s ability to engage with them directly.”

    Over the weekend, special prayers for the consulate and its staff were held at East Jerusalem’s Anglican Cathedral, with a specific focus on the dozens of Palestinian local staff who are expected to lose their jobs if the consulate permanently closes. Richard Sewell, dean of St George’s College Jerusalem, called the impending closure a deliberate attack on Palestinian community life. “I am really disturbed by the prospect of the imminent closure of the British consulate. It is a further attack on the Palestinian community and will severely impact the UK’s relationship with them,” Sewell said. He also noted that the closure will disrupt services for UK nationals residing in East Jerusalem, as well as British pilgrims and tourists visiting the holy city.

    When MEE journalists visited the consulate on Wednesday afternoon and asked the on-site security supervisor whether the consul-general had already departed, the supervisor declined to comment, saying only: “I am sorry, but I cannot give you any information.”

  • Kenya must be ‘clean’ to be credible, says Wada chief

    Kenya must be ‘clean’ to be credible, says Wada chief

    As Kenya prepares to make history as the first African nation to host the World Athletics Championships in 2029, World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) president Witold Banka has issued a clear call: the country must cement its reputation as a credible, clean home of global athletics to live up to the moment.

    Banka wrapped up a three-day working visit to Nairobi last week, where he held high-level talks with Kenyan President William Ruto, senior government and sports officials, leadership from the Anti-Doping Agency of Kenya (ADAK), active athletes, and national law enforcement representatives. The trip was framed as a progress check at a pivotal juncture, coming months after Nairobi won its bid to host the 2029 flagship event.

    “Kenya calls itself probably ‘home of champions’, but every home has to have a good host and has to be clean to be credible,” Banka shared in an interview with BBC Sport Africa during his visit. “We absolutely need to instill the culture of clean sport.”

    Kenya’s selection as host in September 2024 brought longstanding scrutiny of its doping challenges into the global spotlight. Since 2017, the Athletics Integrity Unit has issued suspensions to more than 140 Kenyan athletes, the vast majority of whom are elite distance runners – a discipline that has long been the cornerstone of Kenya’s global sporting legacy. Just one recent high-profile example: former half-marathon world record holder Kibiwott Kandie received a seven-year competition ban for anti-doping rule violations.

    During his meetings, Banka confirmed that he received a formal, unwavering commitment from President Ruto’s administration to enforce a zero-tolerance policy for doping in Kenyan sport. However, he emphasized that tangible outcomes will be the true measure of success, rather than political pledges alone.

    “WADA will monitor this situation and observe the dynamic. Action speaks louder than words,” Banka said. Talks also centered on shoring up the operational independence of ADAK and ensuring the agency receives consistent, sufficient financial and political support from the Kenyan government to carry out its mandate effectively.

    Beyond policy commitments, Banka identified two core systemic challenges that Kenya must address ahead of 2029. First, he noted that the global anti-doping movement already has clear, robust rules and global standards – the gap that remains is consistent, effective enforcement at the national level.

    Second, a critical gap in regional testing infrastructure remains. The only Wada-accredited doping control laboratory on the African continent, based in Bloemfontein, South Africa, lost its accreditation earlier this year. WADA first suspended the facility in March 2024 over multiple failures to meet the organization’s International Standard for Laboratories, and formally revoked its accreditation in May 2025 after compliance issues were not resolved. While Banka confirmed Kenya has expressed strong political will to develop its own accredited laboratory, he cautioned that the accreditation process takes multiple years to complete, and it is highly unlikely a new Kenyan facility will be ready in time for the 2029 championships. As a result, Banka said Kenya’s immediate priority should be strengthening its existing testing framework rather than pinning hopes on a new in-country lab.

    Pushback against framing doping as an African or Kenyan-exclusive issue, Banka stressed that the problem crosses all geographic and national boundaries. “Doping has no colours and flags,” he said, pointing to high-profile doping cases in long-established sporting powerhouses including the United States, Germany, and his native Poland. “The problem would be to ignore this issue, not to tackle, or to pretend that there is no doping here.”

    A key point Banka emphasized throughout his visit is the limit of WADA’s own authority: the agency can investigate anti-doping violations in sport, but it lacks the legal mandate to dismantle the transnational criminal networks that traffic performance-enhancing substances to athletes.

    “We are not a superpower. We are not law enforcement,” he said. “They [Kenyan law enforcement agencies] have tools to really go after those who are destroying the credibility of the sport and the country.”

    Banka added that WADA intelligence confirms prohibited performance-enhancing drugs are already being produced within Kenya’s borders, and that Africa as a whole has become a significant market for illicit doping substances. He argued that athletes are too often the easiest targets in the anti-doping system, when they are frequently exploited by powerful, well-resourced actors who see elite competitors as a profit stream. To truly clean up the sport, Banka said authorities must not only sanction rule-breaking athletes, but also hold accountable the coaches, doctors, team managers, and criminal suppliers that enable doping in the first place.

    In closing, Banka noted that rising detection rates of positive doping tests are actually a sign that Kenya’s anti-doping monitoring system is working as intended, and he reaffirmed that WADA will continue to support Kenya as it builds out its clean sport framework ahead of the 2029 World Championships, which represent a defining moment for both Kenyan athletics and the broader African sporting community.

  • The Republican candidates walking a Trump tightrope

    The Republican candidates walking a Trump tightrope

    With the 3 November US midterm elections entering its final stretch, former and current President Donald Trump has hit the campaign trail, leaning hard into an uncompromising defense of his administration’s economic record. Framing his tenure as the most economically successful in American history, Trump has argued that mainstream media coverage has hidden this success from voters, dismissing widespread public anxiety over soaring living costs as a “hoax” manufactured by his political opponents.

    While a handful of high-level metrics – including record-breaking stock market performance and multi-decade low poverty rates – align with Trump’s claims, the broader economic landscape tells a far less positive story. Official data shows persistent inflation holding at 3.4%, outstripping average wage growth for most American workers. Pump prices have jumped to an average of $4.37 per gallon, and beef prices sit at all-time nominal highs. This disconnect between Trump’s narrative and household financial reality has reshaped the 2026 midterm campaign, leaving Republican candidates across the country facing a high-stakes balancing act: embrace Trump’s upbeat economic framing and risk alienating cost-stressed voters, or break with the president and face his wrath and the backlash from his loyal base.

    Public opinion polling underscores the severity of the political challenge for Republicans. A recent YouGov survey found 63% of US adults believe the economy is worsening, while an AP-NORC poll showed just 17% of respondents approve of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living issues, with only 26% backing his overall economic stewardship. The polls also reveal broad disapproval of several of Trump’s signature policies, including sweeping trade tariffs, hardline immigration restrictions, and the ongoing military conflict with Iran. Avery James, communications director for GOP-aligned polling firm Echelon Insights, summed up the voter mood: “We ask our voters their motivation to turn out, and what we find is cost of living, cost of living, cost of living. That’s the top issue.”

    Even in Florida, Trump’s adopted home state that he won in each of his three presidential runs and which has not elected a Democratic governor since 1999, top Republican candidates have been forced to adjust their messaging to acknowledge voter economic pain. Byron Donalds, a pro-Trump House member running for governor with Trump’s early endorsement, has made “affordability” the centerpiece of his campaign, crisscrossing the state on an official “affordability tour”. During a recent appearance at a Hispanic church in Kissimmee, even as he touted Florida’s status as America’s top state, he conceded that “success has gotten expensive”, highlighting the struggles of retirees, teachers, first responders and service workers to make ends meet.

    Notably, Donalds made no mention of Trump during the campaign event, instead leaning heavily on personal anecdotes about his own early-life financial hardship, when he worked paycheck to paycheck waiting tables at a Cracker Barrel restaurant. When audience members asked questions, alongside predictable conservative cultural flashpoints, many raised urgent concerns about sky-high housing costs, rising property insurance premiums, soaring property taxes, elevated mortgage rates, and persistent healthcare worker shortages.

    Donalds is far from alone. Bryan Avila, running for lieutenant governor on Donalds’ ticket, has also centered economic hardship in his campaign events, as have GOP candidates across the country. Texas Governor Greg Abbott recently hosted a “rural affordability roundtable” in Texarkana, promising his “affordability agenda” will make Texas the most affordable state in the nation. In Iowa, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson – who is running for an open US Senate seat – has released her own plan to cut household costs, and joined other GOP Senate candidates in calling for Trump to quickly end the conflict in Iran. Two of Hinson’s House colleagues from Iowa even crossed party lines to vote for a Democratic measure to limit Trump’s war powers in the region.

    The pressure to address affordability has sparked widespread speculation that candidates are seeking to distance themselves from Trump, particularly after reports emerged that Donalds had removed most prominent mentions of the president from his campaign website. Donalds has denied the claim, but Trump took to Truth Social to denounce the story as “fake”, warning that “If Florida thought the story that Byron ‘dropped’ me was true, he would lose the election, and that would be a terrible thing because he’s going to be a fantastic governor!” Donalds, for his part, has pushed back on the narrative, telling reporters that addressing high prices “is not even about President Trump. I’m the one asking for the votes for the people of Florida to be their governor.”

    Candidates who have publicly broken with Trump on key issues have faced harsh backlash. Florida Congresswoman Maria Salazar released a TV ad bluntly stating that Trump’s hardline immigration crackdown had “gone too far”. Trump responded on Truth Social by accusing Salazar of betrayal and calling on her to drop out of her race, a pattern he has repeated for other dissident candidates during primary season.

    Marc Short, a veteran Republican strategist and former chief of staff to ex-Vice President Mike Pence, noted that Trump’s anger serves as a clear warning to other GOP candidates considering a public break. But Short added that creating distance from Trump also carries political risks for most candidates: “It’s almost disingenuous now to try to create separation. I think for voters it looks opportunistic.” Candidates who have spent years aligning themselves with Trump have no choice but to tie their political fortunes to his, while only long-established Republicans with independent brand identities, like Maine Senator Susan Collins, can credibly draw distinctions between themselves and the president, Short explained.

    Given widespread public economic pessimism and full Republican control of the White House and both chambers of Congress for the past two years, Short said GOP candidates are facing “hurricane force” headwinds ahead of November.

    Yet the election is far from a foregone conclusion, with most competitive battleground races polling as dead heats. While Democrats have benefited from voter discontent over the economy, a majority of voters still hold a negative overall view of the Democratic Party. Republican strategists argue their party can still hold power by framing the election as a contrast between Republican growth and Democratic failure. Alex DeGrasse, a Republican campaign consultant with close ties to congressional GOP leadership, said: “If you elect the Democrats, they’ll destroy everything. Democrats had a chance to run the country, and by every objective economic metric, they did a worse job.” DeGrasse added that Republican leadership at the White House is not panicking, and remains focused on executing its campaign strategy.

    In Florida’s governor’s race, GOP candidates are contrasting what they frame as the “Florida Dream” of pro-growth Republican governance with the economic hardship they argue plagues Democratic-led states like California, Illinois, and New York, a message that resonates with the thousands of conservative transplants moving to Florida from blue states. Even so, candidates still weave acknowledgement of current economic struggles into that pitch.

    James, from Echelon Insights, said the key Republican strategy is to tie core conservative policy strengths – crime, tax cuts, immigration – to the top voter issue of affordability, convincing swing voters that even if they are unhappy with the current situation, Republicans offer better solutions than Democrats. With Republicans outspending Democrats on advertising in battleground districts and states by wide margins, there remains a path for the party to hold control of Congress in the final weeks of the campaign.

    Still, many rank-and-file Republican supporters admit to nervousness over slow voter enthusiasm. Joseph Robinson, an engineer who attended a Tampa campaign event for Avila, said: “Campaigns are won at the end by momentum. But the momentum has been slow. It’s not really like, ‘Hey, I’m going to go run out there and vote right now.’”

    For his part, Trump remains characteristically upbeat, making appearances at high-profile public events in reliably red states from Tennessee to Alabama, drawing large, enthusiastic crowds. But the president’s own words and actions have repeatedly complicated the careful balancing act Republican candidates are trying to pull off. Trump continues to insist that the only problem with the economy is his administration’s poor public relations, telling a crowd in Texas: “In other words, we’re doing a phenomenal job.”

    He has also sent mixed messages about his role in the midterms, alternately insisting his name is essentially on the ballot, then claiming the election is not his fight. If Republicans perform poorly, Trump has argued it will reflect anger at congressional Republicans, not at him. But regardless of whether candidates run with Trump or away from him, a poor midterm result will leave Trump facing a hostile Congress with full legislative and oversight powers for the final two years of his term, carrying significant consequences for his policy agenda and his presidency.

  • Did he really invite Iran to take out California cities?

    Did he really invite Iran to take out California cities?

    In a fiery political rally held in Grand Island, Nebraska on October 6, 2026, former President Donald Trump delivered remarks that have ignited widespread national outrage after he openly suggested that an Iranian strike against two major Democratic-leaning California cities would be an acceptable cost for his administration’s foreign policy agenda. Just moments after predicting a sweeping Republican victory in the upcoming November 3 midterm elections, Trump made the shocking comment that he would not oppose an Iranian military or nuclear attack targeting San Diego and Los Angeles.

    Speaking to the cheering, laughing crowd, Trump stated: “Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego. This is a very small price to pay… It’s gonna be over very soon.” The remarks came amid a context of rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, just days after reports emerged that the Pentagon is making preparations to deploy thousands of additional troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain completely stalled. The two California cities, which are both deep-blue strongholds that Trump has frequently targeted with rhetorical criticism, are home to a combined 5.2 million residents, with more than 20 million people living in their surrounding metropolitan areas. San Diego, notably, hosts several critical U.S. military installations, making the president’s comments all the more alarming to local leaders.

    In the wake of Trump’s remarks, Democratic political leaders across California and the nation immediately condemned the statement as reckless, dangerous, and unbefitting of a sitting U.S. president. San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria, speaking just hours after the rally, issued a sharp rebuke: “Keep our city out of your reckless war talk.” Gloria emphasized that his city, with its key national defense role, is never acceptable collateral damage, saying: “We are not expendable. And we are never a ‘small price to pay.’”

    California Governor Gavin Newsom, a prominent Democrat widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, called Trump’s comments “deranged and dangerous.” Newsom also pointed to the ongoing military posture the Trump administration has taken in California, and called out top Republican leaders for their failure to distance themselves from the remarks: “After sending the National Guard and Marines to occupy California, Donald Trump is now saying our foreign enemies should ‘take out’ Los Angeles and San Diego. The SILENCE from JD Vance and Marco Rubio today is deafening.”

    Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, the city’s top executive, echoed the criticism, arguing that Trump’s comments directly undermine the core responsibility of the presidency to protect all American citizens. “The role of a president is to protect the country, not to actively threaten it and encourage attacks on American lives,” Bass said, adding that Los Angeles residents would remain united in the face of the dangerous rhetoric.

    Not all reactions came from Democrats, however. Even Jim Desmond, a Republican candidate running for California’s 50th Congressional District centered in San Diego, moved quickly to separate himself from the president’s comments, rejecting the framing that the lives and safety of San Diegans could be considered a trivial cost for foreign policy.

    Senator Alex Padilla, California’s Democratic U.S. Senator, issued a blunt call for action, invoking the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which outlines a process for removing a president from office if they are deemed unable to fulfill the duties of their role. Padilla’s response was simple: “Twenty-fifth amendment NOW.”

    Some political observers have attempted to frame the comments as a product of Trump’s characteristic meandering speaking style, rather than a deliberate statement. Journalist Daniel Dale, who regularly fact-checks political rhetoric, noted that Trump’s comment may have been muddled and confusing rather than a clear endorsement of Iranian attack. Even so, Dale acknowledged that the remark was inappropriate regardless of intent: “Of course you can say it’s inappropriate regardless for the president to casually float the possibility of a city being wiped out.”

    The controversial comments come at a moment of growing public dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the ongoing Iran conflict, which Trump launched alongside Israel in February 2026 without securing prior congressional approval. Average national gas prices currently remain elevated at $4.36 per gallon, a cost Trump framed as a “small price to pay for keeping the world safe – keeping our country safe” during the rally. A June poll conducted by the Associated Press found that nearly two-thirds of U.S. voters disapprove of Trump’s management of the conflict, marking a major vulnerability for Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterm contests. Trump has a long history of targeting Democratic-majority major cities, including New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles, with rhetorical attacks, and has deployed armed federal agents to these jurisdictions as part of his hardline mass deportation agenda.

  • Abdul El-Sayed is under fire for joining forces with Obama in upcoming rally

    Abdul El-Sayed is under fire for joining forces with Obama in upcoming rally

    Just two weeks after drawing widespread criticism for sharing the campaign trail with former Vice President Kamala Harris, first-time US Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has found himself at the center of another political firestorm, this time over his announcement that former President Barack Obama will join him for a major campaign event ahead of November’s midterm elections.

    With fewer than 30 days remaining before polls open, El-Sayed confirmed via social media platform X that Obama will appear alongside Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson and the full Michigan Democratic ticket at a Detroit rally scheduled for October 24. The event is timed to launch the state’s in-person early voting period, which gets underway 10 days ahead of Election Day. In his post, El-Sayed wrote, “It is my honor and privilege to announce that President @BarackObama is joining us on the trail in Detroit on Saturday, October 24. Get Ready.”

    El-Sayed is running for the open Michigan Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic incumbent Gary Peters, in a key race that will help determine partisan control of the chamber. The swing-state contest pits him against Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers. He secured the Democratic nomination back in August, scoring an upset win over Congresswoman Haley Stevens – a candidate who received nearly $30 million in support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful pro-Israel lobbying group.

    The announcement of Obama’s planned appearance triggered immediate backlash from critics, who centered their anger on the foreign policy record of Obama’s two-term presidency (2009–2017), particularly his administration’s widespread use of drone warfare and bombing campaigns across the Middle East and parts of Africa. Columbia University professor Anthony Zenkus summed up much of the criticism in an X post following the announcement, writing: “Barack Obama dropped 26,171 bombs on mostly poor black and brown people in the Middle East and Africa in 2016 alone. His own administration admitted that 90% of people killed with his drones were civilians. Wtf is wrong with you?”

    This latest controversy comes on the heels of similar outrage over El-Sayed’s appearance with Kamala Harris last month, when critics accused the candidate of attempting to “rehabilitate” the former vice president. Progressives have widely rejected Harris over her unwavering support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, which has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians since the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, according to local health officials.

    Critics have extended that same scrutiny to Obama, arguing that he laid the groundwork for the current conflict by building up decades of robust military and diplomatic alliance with Israel, a relationship that has enabled its military actions in Gaza. Author and Middle East commentator Ali Abunimah was among the most prominent voices pushing back against the alliance, writing in a post on X: “Baby butcher @BarackObama directly helped “Israel” slaughter 551 kids in Gaza in summer 2014. He provided “Israel” with the biggest aid package in history, arming and prepping it for this ongoing genocide which he has remained silent about. Obama launched the genocidal war on Yemen in 2015 and the CIA’s Operation Timber Sycamore in Syria. This monster had a literal Kill List, droning people all over the world. Few American leaders have as much blood on their hands. Vote @AbdulElSayed to whitewash more psychopathic war criminals!”

    The twin controversies surrounding El-Sayed’s appearances with Harris and Obama have also sparked public questions about the authenticity of his stated positions on the Gaza conflict, with progressive observers pointing to the two high-profile Democrats’ unwavering support for Israel’s military campaign as inconsistent with the candidate’s purported progressive values.

  • German spy chief arrested for treason

    German spy chief arrested for treason

    On Tuesday, German law enforcement authorities took one of the nation’s most senior former intelligence officials into custody, opening what is already being called the most severe espionage scandal to hit Europe since the end of the Cold War. The suspect, 80-year-old August Hanning, led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), the country’s equivalent to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, between 1996 and 2005. Federal prosecutors have formally charged Hanning with espionage, treason, and operating on behalf of unidentified foreign intelligence agencies.

    The arrest grew out of an unrelated high-profile investigation that first put Hanning under law enforcement scrutiny. In September 2025, authorities searched Hanning’s private residence in Hamburg as part of a child custody dispute involving Christina Block, a German multi-millionaire who is the heir to a popular domestic steakhouse chain. According to reports from leading German outlets Bild and Der Spiegel, Hanning exploited his long-standing close ties to senior Israeli intelligence figures to orchestrate an attempted kidnapping of Block’s two children from their home in Denmark, where they lived with Block’s ex-husband.

    Allegations outline that Hanning reached out to Jacob Perry, former head of Israel’s domestic Shin Bet security service and current leader of Tel Aviv-based private intelligence firm CGI Group, to assist with the plot. During the attempted abduction, kidnappers physically assaulted Block’s ex-husband before forcing the 10-year-old boy and 13-year-old girl into a vehicle. German media reports confirm the children had their mouths sealed with duct tape and were threatened with death if they attempted to scream for help. One Israeli suspect linked to the kidnapping was arrested in Cyprus and later extradited to Germany, Israeli outlet Haaretz confirmed. Prosecutors allege Hanning and a retired German police officer accepted a payout of more than $112,000 from Block in exchange for carrying out the kidnapping. Hanning has repeatedly denied all allegations tied to the custody case, claiming he never contacted Perry to discuss any such plot.

    As investigators dug deeper into Hanning’s activities connected to the kidnapping, they uncovered evidence of the far more serious alleged espionage activity. Alongside Hanning, Manfred D., Hanning’s former chief of staff who still held a position at the BND under subsequent agency leadership, was also arrested on charges of aiding treason. Prosecutors allege Manfred D. exploited his ongoing access to classified BND materials to pull secret information and pass it to Hanning, who then sold or distributed the intelligence through his post-retirement private consulting work. Investigators have confirmed Hanning passed sensitive materials to at least one foreign spy and an agent of an overseas intelligence service, though they have not publicly named the country in question. The Financial Times reports that investigators have already ruled out Russia, which Berlin currently identifies as its primary geopolitical adversary amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. During his tenure leading the BND, Hanning built deep professional connections with senior intelligence and business leaders across the globe, including in China and Israel, leaving open multiple lines of inquiry for investigators.

    The arrest has sent shockwaves through Germany’s political and intelligence establishment. In an official statement to Agence France-Presse, Marc Henrichmann, chair of the German parliament’s intelligence oversight committee, emphasized that the country has zero tolerance for betrayal of state secrets. “Whoever allies themselves with the enemies of our liberal democracy will be found out,” Henrichmann said, adding that Hanning’s alleged actions amount to “trampling his official duties underfoot.” The case continues to unfold, with investigators working to map the full extent of the alleged espionage network and identify all foreign actors involved, in what is shaping up to be a defining test of Germany’s national security infrastructure in the 21st century.

  • India’s security restrictions after Pahalgam attack throttle tourism income for Kashmiris

    India’s security restrictions after Pahalgam attack throttle tourism income for Kashmiris

    Nestled in the mountainous terrain of Indian-administered Kashmir, the scenic village of Naranag has long drawn global travelers to its ancient archaeological sites and world-famous high-altitude trekking routes. For local residents like 45-year-old Ghulam Qadir Jagil, the summer tourist season from May to August is not just a busy period—it is the foundation of his livelihood. A grocery store owner and veteran trekking guide, Jagil once catered to dozens of international adventure seekers tackling the 70- to 75-kilometer, seven-day trail cutting through seven pristine alpine lakes, offering everything from sleeping gear to porter services. Today, his shop sits beside empty village streets, with barely enough foot traffic from limited day trips to cover basic household costs.

    The collapse of Kashmir’s adventure tourism industry traces back to the 22 April 2025 militant attack on Baisaran meadow in Pahalgam, which left 26 people dead: 25 tourists and one local pony handler. The attack dramatically escalated long-simmering tensions between India and Pakistan, the two nuclear-armed neighbors that have disputed control of Kashmir since both gained independence from British colonial rule in 1947, pushing the region to the brink of full-scale war just weeks later.

    In the aftermath of the violence, regional authorities imposed sweeping restrictions on all adventure and trekking activities across Kashmir’s high-altitude regions. For Jagil, the losses have already climbed to roughly $6,300 (Rs 600,000)—a devastating blow for a household that relies entirely on tourism income. He is far from alone. Local estimates place the population of Naranag and its surrounding areas at between 2,000 and 4,000 people, many from the semi-nomadic Gujjar and Bakarwal communities, with the vast majority depending on tourism-related work ranging from pony rentals to catering for trekking groups. Currently, only limited day excursions ending by 5 p.m. are permitted, leaving small business owners like Jagil unable to recoup basic expenses.

    “The meager earnings from selling tea and snacks to a handful of day-trippers are nowhere near enough to feed our families,” Jagil told Middle East Eye in an interview.

    The damage extends far beyond Naranag, hitting one of the region’s most critical economic sectors. According to the 2025-26 Jammu and Kashmir Economic Survey, tourism contributes nearly 7 percent of the region’s gross domestic product, supporting more than 500,000 jobs directly and indirectly across hospitality, handicrafts, transportation, local retail, and tour operations. Official visitor data underscores the scale of the collapse: Pahalgam welcomed more than 460,000 tourists in the first four months of 2025, with over 137,000 arriving in April alone in the weeks before the attack. By comparison, the same four-month period in 2026 saw just 250,000 arrivals—less than 55 percent of the previous year’s numbers.

    While mainstream tourist destinations in the region have shown tentative signs of a gradual recovery, communities dependent on the short summer trekking season have been left stranded. Khursheed Ahmad Magray, a Ganderbal resident who owns a small local motel, says local tourism stakeholders including shopkeepers, pony service providers, and trekking company representatives have held multiple meetings with police, government, and civil administration officials to push for the restrictions to be lifted. Though the talks made incremental progress, they have yet to deliver any tangible relief for what Magray calls “victims of the actions of others.”

    Magray described his own experience: after waiting months for authorities to ease restrictions, he purchased new inventory to prepare for returning visitors, only to learn that overnight stays would remain banned and only limited day trips would be allowed. “Now I am stuck struggling to sell the stock I bought in good faith,” he said. “This place used to be packed with adventure lovers setting up tents and staying among the Naranag woods. Today everything is deserted, with only a handful of visitors passing through.”

    When Middle East Eye reached out to regional officials for comment on the impact of the restrictions, none responded prior to publication. Jatin Kishore, district magistrate of Ganderbal, confirmed to the outlet that all high-altitude trekking areas have been “declared restricted and that no activities are allowed there” as part of post-attack security measures.

    Industry estimates indicate Kashmir is home to roughly 200 adventure tour operators, almost all of which rely entirely on the short summer window for trekking, camping, and other outdoor activities to generate their annual income. For many, the prolonged ban has left them completely out of business. Mohammad Adil Langoo, co-owner of Srinagar-based trekking company Cliffhangers India, says his firm’s annual turnover, which once hit nearly $207,500 (Rs 20,000,000) before the restrictions, has now dropped to zero.

    “Not a single trekking location is open across the entire region—we cannot take groups through Naranag, Sonmarg, or Pahalgam, all our core routes,” Langoo explained. “Our income from trekking is entirely gone, and we have suffered catastrophic financial losses.” Some adventure seekers have shifted to neighboring Ladakh, a northern Indian Union Territory that was part of Indian-administered Kashmir until 2019, to trek to high-altitude sites like Kala Pari. But Langoo notes that Ladakh cannot replace Kashmir’s unique trekking landscape. “Not even five percent of the trekkers who used to come to Kashmir will go there instead. We still get constant inquiries for Kashmir treks, but when we offer Ladakh as an alternative, almost everyone turns it down,” he said. “Both domestic and international travelers specifically want to experience Kashmir’s unexplored wilderness—they will not settle for another destination.”

    For adventure tourism workers and enthusiasts alike, the restrictions have come at a personal as well as economic cost. Musadiq Rafiq Wani, a Srinagar-based trek leader and adventure tourism professional who left a conventional office job to work in the mountains, says the prolonged ban has stripped adventure lovers of their connection to the region’s natural spaces. Wani acknowledges that temporary restrictions were understandable after the attack, noting that over-tourism had already placed growing pressure on Kashmir’s fragile alpine ecosystems. But he argues the open-ended ban is unnecessary, pointing out that large-scale religious pilgrimage tourism has been allowed to continue while trekking routes remain closed.

    “We completely condemn terrorism and violence, and we understand that security has to be a top priority,” Wani said. “But permanent restrictions should not mean people lose their access and connection to the mountains that define this region. If someone asks me to go trekking now, I always carry the fear that we will face penalties or be turned away. That fear alone takes away all the joy and freedom that trekking once gave us. It feels like a choking of that freedom.”

  • US senator says he was denied access to damaged military base in Qatar

    US senator says he was denied access to damaged military base in Qatar

    On Tuesday, Senate Foreign Relations Committee member and Democratic Senator Chris Murphy leveled serious allegations against the U.S. Department of War, claiming the department blocked his planned visit to a key U.S. military base in Qatar that had sustained damage in an Iranian strike. Murphy says the denial of access is part of a deliberate effort to keep Congress and the American public in the dark about the true human and strategic costs of ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

    Murphy made the remarks to reporters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, during a multi-stop tour of Gulf nations that included a prior stop in Qatar. His intended destination was Al-Udeid Air Base, the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command (Centcom) which oversees all American military operations across the Middle East. The base was targeted by Iran in a retaliatory strike launched after the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28.

    Murphy emphasized that this obstruction was an unprecedented and unconstitutional overreach, a departure from any access he has been granted during his entire tenure in the Senate. He called on Republican colleagues in Congress to push back against what he frames as a deliberate campaign of government obfuscation that violates legislative oversight norms.

    During his Gulf tour, Murphy confirmed that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had assisted in facilitating his visit, arranging meetings with diplomatic personnel and senior regional leaders. Murphy held discussions with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and other top Gulf government officials. In a social media post published Monday, Murphy shared that he had been able to visit a section of the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh that was hit in two separate Iranian strikes, which he confirmed left “significant damage.” He noted the attacks occurred under cover of night, adding that a daytime strike would almost certainly have resulted in mass casualties.

    While the State Department granted Murphy access to meet with U.S. diplomatic staff, he says Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon explicitly blocked him from accessing the damaged Qatari military base.

    These allegations come as the security and future of U.S. military infrastructure across the Gulf has faced growing scrutiny from current and former national security leaders. In a September report, the Department of War’s own inspector general confirmed that hundreds of buildings and structures across U.S. military bases in seven Gulf nations—including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan—were damaged or destroyed in recent Iranian strikes.

    Independent outlet Middle East Eye has previously reported that multiple current and former U.S. officials view full reconstruction of these vulnerable bases as an unworkable long-term solution, after Iranian drone and missile attacks demonstrated just how exposed traditional U.S. forward positions in the Gulf are. Former CIA director and Centcom commander David Petraeus acknowledged this shifting assessment in a May interview with Bloomberg, noting that the threat landscape is far more severe than it was during his tenure leading U.S. Middle East command. “The truth is that we are not as inclined to occupy these bases now that we have seen what the Iranians can throw at them,” Petraeus stated.

    Another former Centcom chief, General Frank McKenzie, went further in July comments to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, arguing that the U.S. should relocate its primary Gulf command headquarters to Israel and nearby allied countries to better protect American assets from Iranian attack. Referring to Al-Udeid’s current location just 100 miles from Iranian territory, McKenzie said, “No one in their right mind would ever put the Centcom forward headquarters … yet that’s where it is.”

    Middle East Eye, which originally reported on Murphy’s allegations, provides independent, in-depth coverage of the Middle East, North Africa, and surrounding regions.