标签： Europe

In a seismic political shift that has sent ripples across the European continent, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar has claimed a historic election victory that ends 16 years of authoritarian-leaning rule by Viktor Orbán, drawing an outpouring of congratulatory messages from top European Union leaders and key global figures.

The sweeping celebration of Magyar’s win stems not only from what the new incoming prime minister has pledged to accomplish, but from what his victory represents: the end of Orbán’s Euroskeptic, populist rule that long destabilized EU collective governance and frustrated the bloc’s unified policy goals. For years, Orbán positioned himself against Brussels-centric strategy, framing his agenda as a defense of Hungarian national interests against overreach from EU institutions. His repeated vetoes of coordinated EU action, most notably collective military and political support for Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale 2022 invasion, put him at constant odds with the 27-nation bloc. Most recently, his administration’s admission that it maintained secret backchannel communications with Moscow during key EU summits sparked outright outrage among European leaders.

In the wake of the election result, congratulations flooded official social media channels and poured in via personal calls from the bloc’s most senior figures. Even before Magyar delivered his victory speech on the banks of the Danube River in downtown Budapest on Sunday night, he had already received congratulatory calls from French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Online, messages of celebration came from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, European Parliament Speaker Roberta Metsola, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Romanian President Nicușor Dan, and European Council President António Costa, among many others.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez summed up the prevailing mood among pro-European leaders in a post on X, writing simply: “Today Europe wins and European values win.” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed the enthusiasm, posting “Back together! Glorious victory, dear friends!” Starmer framed the outcome as a defining moment for democratic governance across the continent, noting “This is an historic moment, not only for Hungary, but for European democracy.” Macron emphasized that France welcomed the Hungarian people’s clear commitment to EU values, while Merz called for renewed collective action: “Let’s join forces for a strong, secure and, above all, united Europe.” Kristersson framed the result as a new chapter for both Hungary and the bloc, adding that he looked forward to close collaboration as NATO allies and EU partners. Von der Leyen, who was a frequent target of Orbán’s anti-Brussels rhetoric, struck a unifying tone, writing: “Hungary has chosen Europe. Europe has always chosen Hungary. Together, we are stronger. A country returns to its European path. The Union grows stronger.”

Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob went further, framing Magyar’s win as a victory for the entire European project: “His victory over right-wing populism is also a great victory for the EU and its future. Only a more united and more effective EU will be able to respond to the extremely serious challenges of the times ahead.” German lawmaker Daniel Freund noted that the upset would have far-reaching implications for populist movements globally, arguing that Orbán, long the icon of illiberal anti-European politics, was brought down by his own government’s failures: “Hungarians are sending a signal to the world. The icon of illiberal anti-European forces has now failed – brought down by a disastrous economy, corruption, and his own unfair electoral system.”

Ukraine’s official government account also offered congratulations, leaning into the shared geographic and political future of the two nations within Europe. “The Dnipro and the Tisza flow through a shared home — Europe,” the post read.

Beyond his commitment to repairing Hungary’s strained relationship with the EU, which Magyar confirmed to the Associated Press ahead of the vote, the new prime-minister-elect has struck a unifying tone in his first public remarks. “All Hungarians know that this is a shared victory. Our homeland made up its mind. It wants to live again. It wants to be a European country,” he told supporters gathered for his victory celebration.

Notably, Magyar has avoided taking firm stances on several divisive policy issues carried over from the Orbán era, including Orbán’s widely criticized anti-LGBTQ+ policies and the question of whether his administration will expand Hungary’s military and humanitarian support for Ukraine.

Not all reactions to the power shift were uniformly celebratory. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a fellow right-wing leader, congratulated Magyar but also extended thanks to Orbán for years of close collaboration. Far-right French politician Jordan Bardella, a leading contender in France’s 2027 presidential election, praised Orbán’s legacy advancing populist causes in a social media post, and made no mention of the new winner. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, a descendant of Hungarian Holocaust survivors, was among non-European figures to offer congratulations to Magyar.

European People’s Party President Manfried Weber, another frequent critic of Orbán, summed up the broader shift for the EU, writing simply: “Hungary is back at the heart of Europe.”

Tucked along the sun-dappled shores of the Hollands Diep estuary, 21 miles south of Rotterdam, Moerdijk has been a tight-knit fishing community for more than a century. Home to roughly 1,100 residents, generations of families have built their lives, livelihoods, and legacies here: third-generation fishmongers have trawled its waters since 1918, homeowners have built their houses with their own hands, and generations of ancestors rest in its quiet village cemetery. Today, however, this centuries-old settlement stands at the center of a national conflict that threatens to wipe it entirely off the map.

The Dutch government’s ambitious push to expand offshore wind energy has created an urgent need for large-scale high-voltage substations, facilities that connect power carried by undersea wind farm cables to the country’s national electricity grid. With the Netherlands being one of Europe’s most densely populated countries, available developable land is an extremely scarce resource. Government planners have identified Moerdijk as an ideal candidate for the site: its coastal position adjacent to existing ports, major motorways, and established power infrastructure aligns perfectly with the technical requirements of the substation project. If the plan moves forward, the entire village will be demolished within the next 10 years, its homes and community replaced by industrial energy infrastructure.

For residents who have rooted their lives in Moerdijk, the news has been devastating. Jaco Koman, a third-generation fishmonger whose family has operated in the village for more than a century, sees the proposal as an unnecessary sacrifice of a thriving community. His business, which supplies traditional smoked eel to high-end restaurants across the country, depends on the deep coastal waters and open land that drew planners to Moerdijk in the first place. “You go to bed with it and you wake up with it,” Koman said of the constant threat of displacement. While he does not oppose the country’s transition to clean energy, he argues that the burden of this transition should not fall on his community. “Why does our village have to disappear? We could connect these wind farms further out at sea, away from inhabited areas,” he asked.

The atmosphere of uncertainty hangs heavy over Moerdijk’s quiet streets. For-sale signs dot residential driveways, but few buyers are willing to invest in a community marked for demolition. Many residents have flown their flags at half-mast, a quiet act of mourning for a village that still stands, but is already considered lost by many who live here. For Andrea, owner of the local grocery store, the threat is deeply personal: her husband built the family home by hand, all three of her children were born within its walls, and her grandparents and in-laws are buried in the village cemetery. “I’m scared I’ll lose my house,” she said. “There’s so much life here. But in 10 years’ time it may be nothing.”

The conflict unfolding in Moerdijk is not an isolated incident; it lays bare a growing national dilemma across the Netherlands. For decades, the country has grappled with competing demands for its limited land: housing development, agricultural production, conservation, transportation networks, industrial development, and now the new infrastructure required to deliver large-scale renewable energy. The country’s existing electricity grid is already at maximum capacity, delaying new business and housing projects across the nation, while the government’s target to expand North Sea offshore wind will require massive new onshore infrastructure to bring that power to consumers.

Geerten Boogaard, a professor of local government at Leiden University, explained that the Moerdijk conflict exposes the core dynamics of Dutch governance. “In the end we are a centralist state,” Boogaard noted. When the national government labels a project a “vital national interest”, it holds the legal authority to push the project forward over local objections. While local councils can protest and residents can challenge the decision in court, the central government ultimately holds the power. Beyond the legal and planning issues, Boogaard frames the conflict as a larger clash of priorities: “It is a collision between two ways of life – that of a local, tightly knit community, and that of a country trying to transform its energy system in response to climate change, security concerns and pressure to phase out fossil fuels.”

For 71-year-old retired engineer Jacques, who built an eco-friendly home on the edge of Moerdijk in the 1990s, the transformation of the area has already been dramatic. When he moved in, the horizon was clear of industrial development; today, it overlooks one of Europe’s largest logistics hubs, and the constant rumble of passing trucks drowns out local birdsong. “This village will be demolished. That I know for sure,” he said.

The Dutch government has delayed a final decision on Moerdijk’s fate, but an announcement is expected later this year. Ministers declined to comment for this report. Aart Jan Moerkerke, mayor of the Moerdijk municipality, described the pressure on local leaders as immense. The central government is seeking roughly 450 hectares of land – an area equivalent to more than 700 full-size football pitches – to develop not just the substation, but also new hydrogen production facilities and major pipeline routes for transporting hydrogen and ammonia from the Port of Rotterdam to southeastern Netherlands.

In a painful compromise, the municipal council has already agreed in principle to accept the relocation of Moerdijk, choosing to sacrifice one small village to avoid major disruption and declining quality of life in four nearby settlements. The central government could still reverse course, opting instead to squeeze the new infrastructure around existing communities to save Moerdijk, but that alternative carries its own risks of wider disruption. The municipality is currently waiting for the national government to provide binding guarantees on compensation, relocation timelines, and development conditions before moving forward with any formal agreement. For Moerkerke, telling the residents of Moerdijk that their homes and community could be gone within a decade was “the hardest decision of my career”.

What is at stake in Moerdijk extends far beyond the future of this single small village. The decision will serve as a critical test of how nations balance the urgent need for green energy transition against the rights and lives of small local communities that stand in the way of that progress. For the 1,100 residents of Moerdijk, that abstract policy dilemma is a daily reality. For now, they live in limbo, never knowing whether the village they call home will exist in 10 years, or whether it will live on only as a memory and a line on an old map.

Voters across Hungary headed to polling stations on Sunday to cast their ballots in what political analysts across the globe have dubbed the most politically consequential European election of 2025. A single question hangs over the contest: will 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a polarizing populist icon and close ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump, be unseated by his unexpected challenger?

For observers in Brussels, Washington and capitals worldwide, the outcome of this vote carries far-reaching implications for the future of European Union cohesion, transatlantic relations and the global rise of far-right populism. Orbán, the EU’s longest-serving sitting head of government, has evolved dramatically over his decades in public life: from a young liberal firebrand who pushed back against Soviet influence in the 1990s to a Russia-aligned nationalist leader whose model of illiberal governance has become a blueprint for conservative anti-globalization movements across the Western world.

Polling locations opened to voters at 6 a.m. local time, with doors scheduled to close at 7 p.m. Both Orbán and his top rival, Péter Magyar, were scheduled to cast their ballots later Sunday morning. The intense global attention surrounding the race underscores Orbán’s outsize influence on modern right-wing politics: followers of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement hold up Orbán’s Fidesz party and his administration as a gold standard for conservative anti-globalist policy, while proponents of liberal democracy and the rule of law have long condemned his leadership.

Since returning to the prime ministership in 2010, Orbán has reshaped Hungary’s political and social landscape fundamentally. His administration has overseen sweeping crackdowns on minority rights and independent media freedom, systematically weakened core democratic institutions, and faced repeated allegations of diverting public funds to connected business elites — claims Orbán has consistently denied. He has also repeatedly clashed with EU leadership, leveraging Hungary’s veto power to block key bloc initiatives, most recently a 90-billion-euro ($104 billion) EU aid package for Ukraine, a move that drew widespread accusations from European partners of holding critical assistance hostage for political gain.

After four consecutive election victories that delivered Fidesz a two-thirds parliamentary supermajority, new signs suggest Orbán’s unbroken grip on Hungarian politics may finally be vulnerable. That vulnerability comes in the form of 45-year-old Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who split from the party in 2024 and rapidly built a new opposition force, the center-right Tisza party. Magyar has quickly emerged as Orbán’s most formidable challenger to date, with independent polling placing Tisza ahead of Fidesz.

Magyar’s campaign has centered on kitchen-table issues that resonate with ordinary Hungarian voters: a collapsing public health system, underfunded and unreliable public transportation, and what he frames as rampant systemic corruption under the Orbán administration. In the weeks leading up to election day, he carried out a grueling cross-country campaign blitz, holding rallies in cities and small towns alike and visiting as many as six communities a day to connect with voters. In an early April interview with The Associated Press, Magyar framed the election as a stark national referendum: “Hungarians will decide whether we continue drifting toward Moscow under Orbán, or reclaim our place in Europe’s community of democratic nations.”

Despite his polling lead, Magyar faces a steep uphill battle to unseat Orbán. The incumbent maintains near-total control of Hungary’s public media, which has been converted into a relentless Fidesz propaganda mouthpiece, and controls large segments of the country’s private media market, giving him an overwhelming advantage in reaching voters. Fidesz’s unilateral restructuring of Hungary’s electoral system and aggressive gerrymandering of the country’s 106 voting districts also means Tisza needs to win roughly 5% more of the national vote than Fidesz to secure a parliamentary majority. Additionally, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Hungarians residing in neighboring countries retain voting rights in Hungarian national elections, and this demographic has historically voted overwhelmingly for Fidesz.

In the lead-up to Sunday’s vote, both sides have raised alarms about potential irregularities, with speculation growing over external interference and internal voter fraud. Both Fidesz and Tisza have launched independent platforms to collect reports of electoral abuse, each accusing the other of planning to manipulate the result. Multiple media outlets, including The Washington Post, have reported that Russian intelligence services have plotted to interfere in the election to tilt the result in Orbán’s favor. Orbán, meanwhile, has pushed back by accusing neighboring Ukraine and EU leadership of plotting to meddle to install a pro-Kyiv government.

These geopolitical divides have played out openly in international support for both candidates. Most EU leaders, who view Orbán as a persistent threat to the bloc’s democratic cohesion and policy agenda, are openly rooting for an Orbán defeat, hopeful that a Magyar-led government would return Hungary to being a constructive European partner. Across the Atlantic, however, Trump and his MAGA movement have thrown their full weight behind Orbán’s re-election. Trump has issued multiple public endorsements of the Hungarian prime minister, and U.S. Vice President JD Vance traveled to Hungary for a high-profile two-day campaign visit last week to boost Orbán’s chances ahead of election day. As polls closed Sunday evening, all sides awaited a result that will reshape the future of Hungary and send ripples across global politics.

As Hungarians prepare to cast their ballots in a landmark general election on Sunday, the nation stands at a pivotal crossroads. After 16 years of unbroken rule under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the outcome of this vote has the potential to upend the country’s domestic trajectory and send ripples of change across Europe, transatlantic relations, and global geopolitics centered on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Most leading public opinion surveys point to a narrow but clear advantage for challenger Péter Magyar, the founder of the grassroots Tisza party, who launched his political movement after splitting from Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party. Yet in the final hours of campaigning, the long-serving incumbent showed no sign of backing down, striking a defiant tone before thousands of gathered supporters in Budapest’s Castle Hill. “We are going to achieve such a victory that will surprise everyone, perhaps even ourselves,” Orbán told the crowd, leaning into the familiar, polarizing campaign themes that have defined his political career for over a decade.

Voting will open at 6 a.m. local time (4 a.m. GMT) and close at 7 p.m. local time, with preliminary results expected to begin trickling in later that evening. In the days leading up to the vote, Orbán amplified rhetorical tensions, claiming the opposition would “stop at nothing to seize power.” In response, Magyar issued a plea to supporters, urging them not to cave to what he called “Fidesz pressure and blackmail.”

During Orbán’s 16 years in office, the European Parliament has repeatedly labeled his administration a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.” Magyar and Tisza have centered their campaign on a promise of “regime change”: a full reset of Hungary’s strained relationship with the European Union and an end to Orbán’s close bilateral ties to Moscow, a policy that has put Budapest at odds with its NATO and EU allies.

In a sign of shifting momentum, Magyar’s final campaign rally in Debrecen, Hungary’s second-largest city, drew a far larger crowd than Orbán’s closing event in the capital. The incumbent, however, retains high-profile international backing: former U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly urged Hungarian voters to turn out for Orbán, whom he called his “true friend, fighter, and WINNER.”

Addressing supporters on the final Saturday of campaigning, Orbán doubled down on his core messaging targeting Brussels and Kyiv, reiterating his hardline stance that “we don’t give our children, we don’t give our weapons and we don’t give our money” to Ukraine. The message resonated with his base, with long-time Fidesz supporter Johanna telling reporters she backed Orbán’s policies on family protection and his approach to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

While Orbán has secured four consecutive election victories, political analysts broadly agree that a fifth term is far from guaranteed. Hungary is currently grappling with persistent economic stagnation, and Fidesz has been battered by a string of high-profile corruption scandals in recent months. Most notable is the public revelation that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó held regular off-the-record talks with his Russian counterpart before and after every EU summit, a detail Szijjártó has since confirmed.

Orbán’s continued veto of a €90 billion EU aid package for Ukraine has left his European allies furious, deepening the rift between Budapest and the bloc. Róbert László, an election specialist at Budapest-based independent think tank Political Capital, notes that Hungary’s three most reputable polling firms all point to a “huge lead” for Tisza. Contrary to most analysts’ predictions that Fidesz would close the gap as the election neared, László says that narrowing has failed to materialize.

Magyar has framed his campaign around the need for a two-thirds supermajority in Hungary’s 199-seat parliament — not just a simple absolute majority — to roll back the sweeping constitutional changes Fidesz enacted over the past 16 years that weakened judicial independence, consolidated state control over media, and centralized power in the ruling party. Hungary consistently ranks near the bottom of Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index, a reflection of widespread concerns about graft in the Orbán administration.

László says the most likely outcome is a comfortable absolute majority for Tisza that falls just short of the two-thirds threshold, though he adds that a supermajority cannot be ruled out entirely. In recent weeks, current and former figures from Hungarian law enforcement, the military, and the business community have all publicly broken with Fidesz, a shift László calls a clear sign that the national mood has turned definitively against Orbán.

Hungary’s complex electoral system has long benefited Fidesz, a fact Orbán himself has acknowledged. Of the 199 parliamentary seats, 106 are filled by direct constituency elections, while the remaining 93 are allocated via national party lists, with votes open to Hungarians living both at home and abroad. Votes from losing parties in constituency races, as well as excess votes from winning candidates, are transferred to the national list, a mechanism that has historically delivered additional seats to Fidesz. Parties must clear a 5% national vote threshold to gain any parliamentary representation.

One of the only polling firms that still projects a potential Orbán victory is the Nézőpont Institute. Its director, Ágoston Mráz, points to 22 competitive “battleground constituencies” that will decide the race. If Fidesz can win a majority of these swing seats, Mráz says Orbán could still secure a fifth term. Because 5% of votes in these key districts will not be counted immediately, a final official result may take several days to emerge.

Mráz also argues that Fidesz’s support is undercounted in most polls, thanks to a large bloc of “hidden voters.” “Conservative voters are not normally as enthusiastic or their self-confidence is probably limited. They are more hidden voters, they are not ready to answer questions of pollsters, and among the Fidesz voters there are more, in percentage, blue-collar voters than in the Tisza party voter camp,” he explained.

The northwestern city of Györ, Hungary’s sixth-largest city located near the Slovak border, has emerged as a critical battleground that will likely shape the final result. Orbán put the city in the national spotlight last month when he lost his temper amid jeers from protesters, accusing the crowd of “pushing Ukrainian interests.” Just weeks later, Magyar drew a massive crowd for a rally in Györ’s central square, showcasing his strength in the once-safe Fidesz area.

For many young and first-time voters in the city, ousting Fidesz is the top priority. Gergely Németh, a 20-year-old university student, told reporters he and his family have faced persistent financial hardship under Orbán’s policies, even with the prime minister’s widely promoted pro-family tax breaks for households with multiple children. “I think it’s not the man, Péter Magyar, who’s most important. More important is that someone changes these politicians in the parliament,” Németh said, adding that nearly every young person he knows supports removing Fidesz from power.

Györ has been led by an independent mayor and deputy mayor for the past two years, though Fidesz still holds a majority on the local city council. Deputy Mayor Roland Kósa, an independent, has criticized Fidesz for its arrogant approach to power, saying that even after independent leaders were elected, “Fidesz basically looked through us and said and thought we do not exist – this is still their city, this is still their country.” Kósa accuses the ruling party of squandering massive public funds and years of economic opportunity in the city.

Magyar’s political ascent has been built on a broad, cross-partisan appeal. A former center-right Fidesz insider who broke with the party just two years ago, he has attracted disaffected voters from across the ideological spectrum, allowing even voters who are skeptical of him personally to back Tisza as a unified movement to oust Orbán.

Unlike Orbán, who built his opposition movement decades ago through local “citizen circles,” Magyar built Tisza from the ground up through a network of local “Tisza islands” — small activist cells embedded in Fidesz’s traditional strongholds. While the model is not new, it has grown into a robust national movement that has challenged Fidesz’s decades-long hold on local political organizing. Unlike many established opposition parties, Tisza’s candidates are largely non-career politicians: the party’s slate includes practicing surgeons, public school teachers, and local business leaders with direct experience addressing gaps in Hungary’s healthcare and education systems.

This election has defied many conventional European campaign norms. Notably, the two leading candidates have refused to face off in a nationally televised debate, with the entire race being fought out on social media and in open-air rallies across the country. While other minor parties are competing in the election, only Fidesz and Tisza hold enough support to win parliamentary power.

Outwardly, Fidesz officials maintain they are confident of victory, but Balázs Orbán, the party’s political director, has already pre-emptively suggested that the opposition would refuse to accept a Fidesz win. Mráz, from Nézőpont Institute, shares concerns about post-election unrest, warning that Tisza supporters may reject an Orbán victory by claiming widespread fraud. “I’m really afraid of getting violence on the streets because tension is in the air. I hope very much that every politician will be smart enough to help voters avoid violence on the street,” he said.

So far, large opposition gatherings have remained peaceful: at least 100,000 anti-Fidesz supporters packed Budapest’s Heroes’ Square on Friday for a pre-election concert and rally, with no reported incidents. Magyar has repeatedly urged his supporters to remain calm and avoid falling for any provocations that could lead to unrest, regardless of the final outcome.