标签： Asia

A months-long standoff over one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints has shifted dramatically, with Tehran emerging as the clear long-term power holder in the Strait of Hormuz despite an ongoing U.S. blockade effort. The Trump administration has claimed early progress for its blockade, reporting that nine vessels, including the Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry which reversed course in the Gulf of Oman Wednesday, have complied with its turn-around orders. But Iranian officials have pushed back forcefully, reiterating that Tehran retains full authority over the strait and reserves the right to approve all transiting vessels. In a stark warning, Iran added that if its own ports come under threat, every port across the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman will lose security protections.

For decades, Iran has brandished the Strait of Hormuz as a potential bargaining chip against its adversaries, but it never moved to formalize control over the waterway until the current existential conflict with the U.S. and Israel. In an ironic turn, the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear and missile programs has instead handed Tehran a transformative new strategic asset: unchallenged de facto control over the strait, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes daily. Tehran has already embedded this new control into its long-term strategic planning, going so far as to add formal recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait to its negotiating demands during recent indirect peace talks with Washington.

This new leverage delivers three key strategic and economic benefits for Iran. First, it opens a substantial new stream of revenue from transit tolls already imposed on vessels passing through the waterway. With tolls set at roughly $1 per barrel of oil and up to $2 million per fully loaded tanker, independent estimates project Iran could collect up to $600 million monthly from oil shipments and an additional $800 million from natural gas transits. Economists note that roughly 80% of these costs will ultimately be borne by Gulf Arab states, adding up to as much as $14 billion annually from oil tolls alone.

Second, control of the strait acts as a powerful asymmetric deterrent. By proving its ability to disrupt the world’s most vital energy artery, Iran has dramatically raised the economic cost of any future large-scale military action against it, creating deterrence through global economic risk rather than relying solely on its own military capabilities.

Third, the strait delivers major geopolitical clout, particularly for Iran’s outreach to Global South nations. Control over energy flows through the waterway allows Tehran to negotiate with energy-dependent states, offering reliable transit access in exchange for cooperation that circumvents U.S. sanctions and deepens bilateral economic ties.

The U.S. has moved to counter Iran’s new leverage with its own blockade, but this reciprocal campaign faces deep structural limitations that undermine long-term success. Unlike Iran, which can enforce its rules from its own adjacent coastline, the U.S. must maintain a blockade in open international waters, a logistically and financially draining operation that requires widespread allied support which has yet to materialize. Even with backing, sustaining a long-term blockade would impose massive costs on the U.S. military and trigger cascading disruptions to the global economy, making the status quo unsustainable for Washington. Many analysts now warn the strait could become “America’s Suez moment” — a strategic turning point that exposes the limits of U.S. power projection in the Middle East, rather than demonstrating its dominance.

A key question hanging over the standoff is how China, which purchases more than 80% of Iran’s crude oil exports and sees 40% of its total oil imports pass through the strait, will respond. So far, Beijing has shown no willingness to pressure Iran to roll back its new control regime, instead placing full blame on the U.S. for the crisis and rejecting the blockade as illegitimate. This week, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun called the U.S. operation “dangerous and irresponsible” in blunt remarks. While one Chinese-owned tanker complied with U.S. orders to turn around, multiple other Chinese-flagged and Chinese-owned vessels have already completed transits through Iran’s new toll system, signaling Beijing’s willingness to abide by Tehran’s rules for the time being.

Although China is heavily dependent on Hormuz transit for its energy supplies, it has spent years preparing for this exact scenario. Beijing has systematically diversified its oil import sources to reduce overreliance on any single supplier, and is estimated to hold enough strategic petroleum reserves to replace Hormuz shipments for up to seven months. Even so, it remains unclear whether Beijing will support Iran’s permanent toll system long-term; while it has not publicly opposed the measure to date, many experts note China has repeatedly called for a return to unrestricted, normal passage through the strait as soon as possible.

Beyond the immediate standoff, the crisis is accelerating long-term geopolitical shifts in the Middle East that play to China’s expanding influence in the region. The ongoing conflict has convinced many Gulf Arab states that longstanding security alignment with the U.S. and normalization with Israel do not guarantee their national security, pushing regional leaders to diversify their diplomatic and economic partnerships. This trend was highlighted by this week’s visit of the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince to Beijing, a trip that underscores growing Gulf interest in deeper ties with China.

Bilateral trade between Gulf Cooperation Council states and China already hit roughly $257 billion in 2024, a total that narrowly outpaced the Gulf’s combined trade with major Western economies. Beijing has also steadily expanded its diplomatic footprint in the region, mediating the 2023 normalization agreement between longtime rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, and playing an indirect facilitating role in recent indirect U.S.-Iran peace talks held in Pakistan to end the current conflict. Looking ahead, experts project Iran could push for a new region-led security framework with Gulf Arab states, with China stepping in as a neutral guarantor or facilitator — a shift that would end decades of U.S. dominance as the primary security provider in the Persian Gulf.

Amid rapidly escalating bilateral friction between Beijing and Tokyo, the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo issued a formal statement Thursday accusing Japanese law enforcement authorities of failing to take adequate, effective action to counter a string of violent threats targeting Chinese diplomatic facilities and Chinese nationals based in Japan.

Shi Yong, China’s acting ambassador to Japan, detailed the sequence of alarming incidents in his remarks. The first major threat arrived on March 5, in the form of a letter sent to the embassy from an anonymous group claiming to consist of former Japanese police and military personnel. The message contained overtly hostile threats: the group pledged to carry out violent attacks against Chinese diplomatic missions across Japan and threatened to “wipe out all Chinese” residing in the country.

Immediately after receiving the threatening correspondence, embassy officials filed a formal report with Japanese police, according to an official post the mission made on the social media platform X. The embassy criticized Japanese law enforcement for failing to treat the threat seriously, declining to implement tangible protective measures, and falling short of launching a full, thorough investigation to clarify the facts of the case.

The string of threats continued after a high-profile trespassing incident in late March, when an officer from the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force was arrested for illegally entering the Chinese Embassy compound in Tokyo while armed with a knife. Following a formal diplomatic protest from Beijing over the incursion, Japanese police increased visible security deployments around the embassy’s premises.

Just one week after the trespassing incident, the embassy received a separate bomb threat via social media. This threat was issued by another individual claiming to be a member of the Japan Self-Defense Force reserve, prompting local authorities to launch a two-hour bomb sweep across the embassy compound. Shi did not confirm whether any explosive devices were located during the search.

While the acting ambassador acknowledged that Japanese police have boosted external security around the diplomatic mission, he emphasized that the embassy and its personnel remain in an unsafe position, still “exposed to threats” that have not been fully resolved.

Tensions between China and Japan have steepened since November last year, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made controversial remarks stating that any Chinese military operation targeting the self-governed island of Taiwan could qualify as a national security emergency justifying a Japanese military response. In response to the comments, China implemented a series of diplomatic and economic countermeasures against Japan.

As of Thursday, Japan’s Foreign Ministry has not issued any response to the Chinese Embassy’s new accusations, and declined to comment on the record when approached for statement.

JAKARTA, Indonesia – In the wake of a newly announced high-profile defense agreement between Washington and Jakarta, Indonesian authorities are currently conducting a careful internal review of a United States proposal to secure expanded overflight access through the country’s sovereign airspace, the nation’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Thursday. The American overflight request first entered public discourse via local Indonesian media outlets, emerging just days after the two nations formally established the Major Defense Cooperation Partnership. That landmark agreement was unveiled Monday at the Pentagon by United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, marking a visible deepening of bilateral defense ties between the two countries.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yvonne Mewengkang outlined the parameters of the ongoing review process, noting that the proposal remains in the early stages of internal government evaluation. She emphasized that every aspect of the request is being scrutinized through the country’s existing regulatory framework, with three non-negotiable principles guiding the deliberation: Indonesia’s core national interests, the inviolability of its airspace sovereignty, and the country’s long-held independent and active foreign policy doctrine.

The Indonesian Defense Ministry echoed this update earlier this week, formally confirming that the U.S. had formally submitted the overflight clearance request and that negotiations are still ongoing. In an official statement shared with the public, the Defense Ministry added that Indonesian negotiators have already pushed through several key adjustments to the draft proposal. A central point of revision is the explicit framing of the draft document as non-binding, meaning it will not enter into force automatically. Instead, any final agreement will still need to pass through additional rounds of discussion via relevant technical working groups and formal national legislative and executive approval procedures before it can be finalized.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is preparing to open its military facilities to civilian visitors next week, launching a series of public open-house events to commemorate the 77th anniversary of its founding. All three of the PLA Navy’s major fleets — the North Sea Fleet, East Sea Fleet, and South Sea Fleet — have confirmed that they will offer rare public access to active warships across multiple coastal cities, in a move designed to strengthen bonds between the military and the general public and showcase the service’s decades of modernization advancement.

The founding date of the PLA Navy traces back to April 23, 1949, when the force was established in Baimamiao township, Jiangsu province. This historical date was officially designated as the service’s annual anniversary in 1989, making 2026 the 77th year since the navy’s founding.

The North Sea Fleet will host public visits in two northern coastal cities: Qingdao, Shandong province and Dalian, Liaoning province. In Qingdao, events will run from April 22 to 26 across two venues, Qingdao Port and the Qingdao Olympic Sailing Center Dock, while open days in Dalian are scheduled for April 25 and 26. A diverse lineup of active naval vessels will be on display for visitors, including the advanced Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, Type 054A guided-missile frigate, and Type 903 integrated supply ship, covering major frontline vessel classes in the PLA Navy’s current fleet.

For the South Sea Fleet, public events will be held from April 23 to 26 across five locations in southern China: Guangzhou and Zhanjiang in Guangdong province, Sanya and Danzhou in Hainan province, and Beihai in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Attendees at these southern venues will have the opportunity to tour guided-missile destroyers and amphibious transport ships.

Covering eastern and southeastern coastal regions, the East Sea Fleet will open its facilities to the public from April 21 to 26 across seven cities: Ningbo, Shanghai, Zhoushan, Taizhou, Nantong, Xiamen, and Shantou.

To manage visitor numbers and ensure a smooth experience, all public spots for the open-house events are allocated through a first-come, first-served reservation system. Interested members of the public can book their visits through officially designated WeChat public accounts and dedicated event websites.

The public outreach initiative marks one of the most extensive nationwide open-house events held by the PLA Navy in recent years, reflecting the service’s growing transparency and its commitment to building public understanding of national maritime defense.

A brief 15-second video shared by Iran’s top diplomat has thrown Pakistan’s influential army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, back into international focus. The clip, posted to X by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, captured the moment Munir stepped off a plane in Tehran, greeted with a warm fraternal embrace. The visit marked Munir’s latest move in Pakistan’s high-stakes diplomatic push to de-escalate tensions between Iran and the United States, and to lay the groundwork for a second round of direct negotiations between the two long-hostile nations.

For weeks, Pakistan’s public mediation efforts have centered on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who have actively shared updates of their work via social media and official statements. But behind the public facade, one key figure has driven much of the process: Pakistan’s most powerful military leader, Asim Munir. Multiple anonymous Pakistani officials, authorized to discuss the sensitive talks only off the record, have outlined Munir’s central, underreported role in the ongoing mediation.

Weeks ago, when Pakistan formally announced it would facilitate talks between Washington and Tehran, Sharif assigned Munir to maintain confidential backchannel communications with political and military stakeholders from both sides. The core goal of these quiet talks has been to dial back rising tensions that threatened to spiral into a wider regional crisis. While few concrete details of Munir’s meetings or engagements have been released to the public, his early behind-the-scenes work has already yielded tangible progress: Pakistan succeeded in bringing U.S. and Iranian delegations together for rare face-to-face negotiations in Islamabad just last week.

Though that first round of talks did not result in a signed formal agreement, it kept the critical communication channel open between the two nations. Officials credit Munir with playing an indispensable supporting role in creating that opening. Just days after the initial Islamabad talks wrapped, Pakistani diplomacy continued unabated, and both sides agreed in principle to explore a second negotiation round. It was that push that led Munir to travel to Tehran this Wednesday to personally win Iran’s buy-in for the next round of discussions.

Araghchi’s public welcome of the Pakistani army chief confirmed the high level of trust Iranian leadership places in Munir. Charles Lyons-Jones, a research fellow at the Australia-based Lowy Institute, notes that while Sharif and Dar occupy the public face of the mediation effort, Munir is the ultimate decision-maker driving the process.

Munir’s outsized influence in Pakistani politics is no accident. In December, the federal government appointed him to dual roles as chief of army staff and chief of defense forces, cementing his position as the country’s most powerful military figure. Just months before that appointment, he was promoted to the rank of field marshal, making him only the second military officer in Pakistan’s entire history to hold the prestigious title. Lyons-Jones argues that Munir is the most powerful Pakistani leader since former military ruler Pervez Musharraf, with full authority over military promotions, civilian government policy direction, and the military’s far-reaching commercial holdings.

A 57-year-old born to a lower-middle-class family in Rawalpindi, Munir enlisted in the Pakistani military in 1986, beginning his service in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the disputed territory claimed by both Pakistan and India. He went on to serve in postings across the country, and spent years in Saudi Arabia as a colonel under a long-standing bilateral agreement that sees Pakistani military personnel train Saudi forces. During that posting, he mastered Arabic and developed deep firsthand insight into Middle Eastern politics and regional culture, according to colleagues who have worked with him. He later rose through the senior ranks to become the only army chief in Pakistan’s history to lead both of the country’s top intelligence agencies: Military Intelligence and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

Munir has also built an unusual level of rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has publicly called Munir “my favorite field marshal” — a nod to the close personal relationship between the two leaders. Lyons-Jones explains that this pre-existing bond gives Pakistan a unique advantage as a mediator: the country is the only regional power that maintains strong, productive ties with Iran, the Gulf Arab states, and the United States simultaneously.

This is not the first high-stakes crisis Munir has navigated. During the 2024 four-day border clash between India and Pakistan that brought the two nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of full conflict, Munir played a central role in shaping Pakistan’s de-escalatory strategy before Trump announced he had helped broker a ceasefire. When Iran launched cross-border strikes into Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province earlier this year, targeting what Tehran claimed were militant positions, Munir backed a measured, proportional response that included limited retaliatory strikes against militant hideouts across the border, avoiding an open escalation of conflict. He took a similar calibrated approach to recurring border tensions with Afghanistan over cross-border militant activity, associates say.

Those who know Munir personally describe him as a leader who actively seeks out high-risk, high-stakes assignments that other figures shy away from. He is also widely respected as a hafiz — a term for someone who has fully memorized the Quran — and draws his decision-making framework from his religious beliefs. “He understands Islam, he understands the Quran, and he believes in what it teaches,” said Syed Mohammad Ali, a close associate of Munir. “His concepts are very clear: he does what others fear to do.” Ali describes Munir as a deliberate, thoughtful decision-maker: “He thinks many times before taking a decision, and once he decides, he pursues it with full dedication, leaving the outcome to God.”

Munir’s Tehran visit also underscores the level of confidence Iranian leaders have in him, even amid heightened security risks. Despite ongoing threats following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes, senior Iranian officials openly traveled to greet him at the airport, a move that put their locations at risk of exposure, a sign of the trust both sides place in the Pakistani army chief’s ability to move the mediation process forward.