United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has issued a stark warning that the globe has entered a ‘danger zone of extreme weather’ as a historically powerful El Niño event begins to send disruptive impacts across every continent. New data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN specialized agency, indicates this climate event could become the strongest El Niño recorded in more than 70 years, with its far-reaching effects expected to persist through at least February 2027.
El Niño, a natural climate pattern originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean driven by shifting trade winds that push warm surface water eastward, triggers profound disruptions to global weather systems. It creates prolonged drought in some regions while supercharging typhoons and catastrophic flooding in others, and amplifies global surface temperatures on top of the long-term warming already driven by human-caused climate change.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” Guterres stated in his warning.
Latest ocean temperature readings confirm the rapid strengthening of this event. In recent months, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have spiked dramatically, with key monitoring regions recording readings more than 2°C above the long-term average. Forecasts project monthly anomalies could approach 4°C above average in the coming months, pushing this event past the ‘very strong’ threshold to become the most intense El Niño since at least 1950, potentially by a substantial margin. Even more striking anomalies have been recorded below the ocean surface, where some areas are more than 8°C warmer than average.
Above-normal ocean temperatures are also projected across the Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, and sections of Australia’s coastline, bringing heightened risk to the country’s unique marine ecosystems. Australia has already seen a string of climate change-fueled marine heatwaves in recent years, and El Niño typically amplifies the extreme ocean heat that drives these events.
Dr. Alistair Hobday, chief researcher at Australia’s national science agency, told the BBC that while forecasts predict the Great Barrier Reef will avoid the most severe heat stress this year – giving vulnerable coral populations valuable additional recovery time – southern parts of the country face extreme impacts. When the region last suffered a major marine heatwave, the event caused mass penguin starvation, large-scale fish die-offs, toxic algal blooms, and widespread jellyfish invasions. Australia has rolled out new early warning systems for marine crises that allow policymakers to activate financial support for fishing industries, relocate at-risk species, and step up coral monitoring, but Hobday acknowledged deep concern over the unprecedented intensity of the approaching event.
The WMO projects major shifts to global rainfall patterns over the coming months, with impacts that will ripple through communities and global trade. Much of Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern South America are forecast to see far drier conditions than average, raising the risks of severe drought and destructive wildfires. In anticipation of low rainfall that will limit water levels along its key shipping route, the Panama Canal will cut daily vessel transits by more than 10% starting this week. The canal supports 14,000 annual ship passages, serves as a critical artery for global trade, and generates roughly $3 billion in annual revenue for Panama, making the cuts a significant economic concern.
In Indonesia, authorities are already working to contain wildfires that have burned over 107,000 hectares of land across the country this extended dry season. A Central Kalimantan resident told BBC News Indonesia that blazes have burned for more than a month, leaving thick smoke that stings the eyes and lingers in the air. The government has deployed cloud-seeding aircraft to trigger rainfall, allocated emergency resources, and arrested dozens of people accused of intentionally setting fires to clear land for development.
Across the globe, other regions face the opposite risk: above-average rainfall and devastating flooding. Eastern Africa, southern Brazil, and the southern United States all face elevated flood risk, while China has already seen a surge in typhoon activity linked to the super El Niño, with seven storms projected to make landfall this year. Three typhoons hit the country in July alone, leaving dozens dead, and more than one million people were evacuated as Typhoon Dolphin brought destructive winds and torrential rain in August.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño “has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
All these risks are compounded by long-term anthropogenic climate change, which amplifies the intensity of extreme weather events linked to El Niño. While some research suggests climate change may be making individual El Niño events stronger, this hypothesis has not yet been confirmed by consensus science.
Peru, which borders the warming eastern Pacific, is among the most vulnerable nations to this event. Past strong El Niños have brought extreme rainfall, deadly flash floods, and destructive landslides to Peru, neighboring Ecuador, and parts of Brazil, particularly in densely populated urban areas with poor drainage.
Miguel Aréstegui, climate resilience lead at the non-profit Practical Action which supports extreme weather preparedness in vulnerable nations, said that while the scale of the event warrants serious concern, that urgency should translate to preparedness rather than panic. Aréstegui noted that Practical Action and its partners have spent years expanding public access to early warning systems, including real-time data on river levels, flood risk, and weather forecasts. At the end of last month, the U.S. announced it would deploy the hospital ship USNS Comfort to the Peruvian coast to provide additional medical support and technical equipment ahead of the event’s peak intensity.
Even with these preparedness measures, Aréstegui emphasized that El Niño’s impacts are worsened by long-standing structural vulnerabilities that take far longer to address. “El Niño does not arrive in a vacuum,” he said, pointing to unplanned housing in high-risk flood zones, fragile water and sanitation infrastructure, and under-resourced healthcare systems as persistent challenges that amplify harm from extreme weather.
To respond to the event, the WMO has launched a major global mobilization effort to distribute El Niño-linked extreme weather forecasts to as many at-risk communities as possible. While many nations have strengthened early warning systems and pre-positioned emergency medical support, the unprecedented intensity of this event has raised sharp concerns about outcomes for the world’s most vulnerable populations.