分类： business

Escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran have sent shockwaves through global commodity markets and rippled into Australia’s domestic sharemarket, leaving the benchmark ASX 200 in negative territory on Wednesday, with sharp divergence across key industry sectors. Fresh military action that began on Tuesday, when U.S. Central Command launched targeted air strikes against Iranian sites along the country’s coastline, has amplified uncertainty in the already volatile Middle East, a region that controls a large share of global oil transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

In a public statement posted to the social platform X, U.S. Central Command framed the strikes as a response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial shipping vessels carrying civilian crews in international waters, noting the operation was designed to impose clear costs for Tehran’s actions. A senior U.S. official confirmed Iran launched retaliatory strikes following the initial U.S. assault, creating a dangerous cycle of tit-for-tat violence that threatens regional stability.

The escalation immediately impacted global energy markets, pushing Brent Crude prices up to a two-week high of $76.58 per barrel. This sharp uptick in oil prices triggered mixed reactions across Australia’s benchmark index, which ended the trading session in the red despite a partial recovery from a deeper morning slump. The ASX 200 closed 18.80 points lower, a 0.21% drop that landed it at 8785.10, while the broader All Ordinaries index fell 25.40 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 8979.30. Against the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar rallied to 69.36 U.S. cents by market close.

Against the overall market downturn, six of the ASX 200’s 11 industry sectors closed in positive territory, led by energy stocks that benefited directly from the rising crude prices. Major Australian energy producers posted double-digit and solid single-digit gains: Woodside Energy rose 3.22% to close at $28.87, Santos climbed 5.78% to $7.50, and fuel retailer Ampol gained 1.37% to finish at $34.78. Consumer staples were another bright spot for the market: supermarket chain Woolworths rose 1.22% to $39.90, rival Coles added 0.39% to $23.41, and drinks and hospitality operator Endeavour Group jumped 1.79% to $3.51.

These sector gains were more than offset by steep declines across mining and materials stocks, driven by falling commodity prices and investor jitters over prolonged high global interest rates. BHP Group shares fell 2.31% to $57.51, Rio Tinto dropped 2.55% to $163.85, and only Fortescue Metals bucked the trend with a tiny 0.11% gain to $18.40. Gold mining stocks also slumped as rising oil prices stoked fears that central banks would keep interest rates higher for longer, a trend that typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. Northern Star Resources fell 1.69% to $20.31, Evolution Mining dropped 4.19% to $11.44, and Newmont lost 1.04% to $136.18.

Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, explained that the latest conflict grows out of a long-standing unresolved dispute over sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies pass each day. “Iran maintains that parts of the Strait fall within its territorial waters and that it exercises sovereignty over them, while the US position was that the Strait is an international waterway with rights of transit passage for all nations,” Sycamore said. “This fundamental difference in interpretation was never fully resolved in the text of any agreement.”

Beyond the geopolitical-driven volatility, several individual companies dragged on the index through company-specific events. Telecom giant Telstra saw its shares drop 2.96% to $4.92 following a nationwide network outage that disrupted more than 24.9 million mobile services, interrupted business payment systems, and shut down public transport networks across multiple Australian states. Furniture retailer Adairs fell 1.34% to $1.47 after it flagged a non-cash impairment charge of up to $60 million and projected a statutory after-tax net loss of roughly $43 million. Medical device company ResMed slipped 0.80% to $31.19 after announcing it had agreed to sell its MatrixCare software business to Frazer Healthcare Partners for $490 million U.S.

As Australia’s central bank holds the official cash rate steady, a wave of independent rate cuts from domestic lenders has upended the country’s mortgage market, driven by intensifying competition to win over home loan borrowers. In an unexpected shift that defies the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June decision to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, 18 lenders have moved to slash variable home loan interest rates for existing and prospective customers, with several more cutting fixed rate offerings.

Data from finance comparison platform Canbar shines a light on the core dynamic driving this unconventional move: cutthroat price competition forcing providers to undercut one another to gain market share. “Competition among lenders continues to create opportunities for some households to cut their borrowing costs,” noted Sally Tindall, Canstar’s director of data insights. Tindall added that while negotiating a lower rate with a current lender can deliver modest savings, the largest reductions still typically come from refinancing a home loan with a new provider.

The most prominent cut highlighted by Tindall came from Bendigo Bank, which reduced its lowest variable rate for refinancing customers by 15 basis points, bringing the rate down to 5.89%. Following this round of cuts, 15 separate lenders now offer home loan rates below 5.9% — a threshold that was far less common just months earlier. Fixed rate home loans have also seen downward movement, with five lenders rolling out reduced fixed rate terms for new borrowers. AMP Bank led the fixed rate cuts, trimming some of its long-term fixed rates by as much as 50 basis points.

This wave of private sector rate cuts comes even as the RBA opted to hold the official cash rate at its June monetary policy meeting, with the board voting unanimously to keep rates steady despite inflation remaining well above the central bank’s 2-3% target. Recent official data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics puts annual headline inflation at 4.0% as of May, down slightly from 4.2% in April. The cooling of headline inflation is largely attributed to the Australian government’s temporary fuel excise halving, which drove an 11.9% drop in automotive fuel prices in May following a 7.0% decline in April.

However, core inflation — the RBA’s preferred indicator that strips out volatile price movements for items like fuel — tells a less encouraging story. The trimmed mean inflation rate rose 0.4% month-on-month in May, accelerating from a 0.3% increase in April, pushing the annual core rate to 3.6%. RBA governor Michele Bullock emphasized after the June rate decision that inflation remains unacceptably high, and left the door open for future rate hikes if necessary. “I want to be very clear that inflation remains too high,” Bullock said. “Rate hikes remained on the table if that is what is required to bring inflation down.”

The conflicting signals from inflation data have split economic experts over the RBA’s next policy moves, with forecasters divided between expecting extended rate holds, gradual cuts, and additional hikes to curb persistent price growth. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham expects the RBA will hold rates steady for a prolonged period, in large part due to a cooling housing market that is already expected to dampen consumer spending and ease inflationary pressure. “Although the RBA does not target housing prices, the housing price correction will have implications for monetary policy,” Bloxham explained. HSBC’s base case forecasts housing prices to decline in the second half of 2026, and fall 2-6% over the full 2027 calendar year. “At some level, the cooling housing market will be helpful for the RBA if it slows down consumer spending, as this will also help to take some more pressure off inflation, which is too high,” he added.

Three of Australia’s four largest major banks also predict rates will remain on hold until 2027, with only subtle differences in their outlooks. Commonwealth Bank projects the RBA will hold rates steady through the rest of 2026, though it acknowledges rates could rise if inflation continues to exceed forecasts. National Australia Bank expects the RBA to hold before starting gradual rate cuts in the second quarter of 2027, while Australia and New Zealand Banking Group forecasts two rate cuts will be implemented over 2027.

Westpac, the only major bank to break ranks, is forecasting two more 25-basis-point rate hikes before the RBA pauses for a 12-month period. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis argues that persistent above-target inflation makes additional rate increases likely before the end of the year. “We still regard our two-hike track as the most appropriate base case view, given the inflation outlook,” Dr Ellis said in comments late last week. Ellis pointed to two key factors that could keep inflation higher than policymakers expect: lingering pass-through effects from recent fuel price increases to other consumer goods and services, and a larger-than-expected increase in minimum and award wages that could put upward pressure on broader labor costs. “If we are right about the inflation profile from here, the RBA will be surprised on the upside,” she added. “We therefore retain our view that further rate hikes will occur in the following meetings (in August and September).”

Australia’s post-pandemic economy is facing deep structural vulnerabilities that are leaving ordinary households trapped in a cycle of eroding purchasing power, with living standards stuck near multi-year lows and workers forced to make tough tradeoffs to keep up with rising costs, new reports from leading global and domestic economic bodies have confirmed.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a stark warning that persistent high inflation has outpaced wage growth across Australia, creating a sustained drag on household incomes that shows little sign of reversing even as the national labor market maintains a broadly solid headline performance. Unlike many other advanced economies that have bounced back from post-pandemic inflation shocks, Australia remains among a small group of OECD nations where real wage erosion is set to continue, with the country’s minimum wage set to fall in inflation-adjusted terms between April 2025 and April 2026. This decline disproportionately hits the lowest-paid Australian workers, compounding already severe cost-of-living pressures.

Inflation-adjusted wage declines have been recorded in other wealthy nations including New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Italy and Sweden, but most of these European economies have since recovered lost ground. The OECD’s data confirms that both Australia and New Zealand are unique among developed countries for their failure to rebound, with living standards in both nations still stuck near the troughs hit after the COVID-19 pandemic.

To offset the rising cost of basic goods and services, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chief economist Sarah Hunter outlined two primary coping strategies households are adopting: cutting discretionary spending entirely, or increasing their working hours to boost total incomes. Speaking at the recent Australian Conference of Economists, Hunter explained that post-pandemic data already bears out this trend. Joint research conducted by the RBA and the International Monetary Fund found clear evidence that households have responded to cost-of-living pressures by expanding their labor supply. Most notably, households with larger mortgage balances, which face greater exposure to rising interest rates, are significantly more likely to enter or re-enter the workforce to cover higher monthly repayments.

But the ability of households to work their way out of financial pressure is set to be tested by a coming cooling in the labor market, a separate report from Deloitte Access Economics warns. The firm forecasts that the combination of persistent high inflation and elevated interest rates will push the national unemployment rate higher over the next 12 months, rising to an average of 4.9% in the 2026-2027 financial year before peaking near 5% by 2028. That increase in joblessness will only come after inflation cools sufficiently to allow the RBA to begin cutting interest rates.

Deloitte projects that headline inflation will remain above 4% for the remainder of the 2026 calendar year, extending the financial strain on households that has already stretched budgets thin. Deloitte Access Economics partner Stephen Smith noted that multiple overlapping shocks have left the Australian economy exposed: inflation has reaccelerated, interest rates have already climbed to multi-year highs, and the oil price shock sparked by Middle East conflict remains unresolved. “To date, 2026 has revealed the vulnerabilities that have developed within the Australian economy over recent history. Australia is now structurally exposed in ways that have become hard to ignore,” Smith said.

The firm predicts that the RBA will implement a fourth interest rate hike in August, lifting the official cash rate to 4.60% before holding rates steady for the following 12 months. The OECD echoes this downbeat outlook, projecting that real wages in Australia will fall a further 1% by September 2026, driven by a temporary inflation spike tied to the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The dispute led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted 20% of global oil and gas supplies and pushed crude prices up to roughly $US120 per barrel before a tentative peace agreement was reached. While prices have since fallen back to pre-conflict levels around $US70 per barrel, the volatility has already left a mark on domestic inflation. Financial services firm AMP estimates that every $US10 increase in global oil prices adds an extra 10 cents per liter to Australian fuel prices.

Australia’s most recent official inflation data, released for the 12 months ending May 2026, put annual inflation at 4.0%, down slightly from 4.2% in April. Both readings remain well above the RBA’s official 2-3% target inflation range. The modest cooling recorded in May was almost entirely driven by the federal government’s temporary cut to the national fuel excise, which halved the levy and pushed automotive fuel prices down 11.9% in May following a 7.0% drop in April.

As global port logistics giant DP World rolls out artificial intelligence and automated systems across its Australian operations, dockworkers represented by the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) have sparked a tense industrial debate by calling for a reduced 28-hour workweek with no corresponding cut to pay.

Headquartered in Dubai, DP World ranks among the world’s biggest port operators, employing more than 126,000 people globally and managing over 10 percent of the world’s total container shipping volume. In Australia alone, the firm controls port infrastructure in Sydney, Melbourne and other major coastal hubs, moving millions of containers annually and accounting for approximately 40 percent of all container shipments entering the country. That outsized market share means any changes to its operations carry major implications for Australia’s entire supply chain and logistics sector.

According to an MUA-commissioned study from the Centre For International Corporate Tax Accountability and Research, DP World has been ramping up testing of AI tools for workforce management and scheduling, with broader plans to introduce AI-assisted remote-controlled cranes and autonomous driverless vehicles across its Australian terminals. The research warns that this automation push is being rolled out without meaningful consultation with workers, and could threaten as many as 1,000 roles – more than 60 percent of DP World’s current Australian dock and maintenance workforce.

The MUA argues that the adoption of new AI technology should benefit workers rather than only boost corporate profits, framing the 28-hour workweek demand as a way to share the productivity gains from automation. Currently, DP World dockworkers average between 32 and 35 hours of work per week, with minor variations based on terminal location, according to the *Australian Financial Review*, which first broke news of the ongoing negotiations.

“If DP World wants AI and automation, then they must pay the social dividend. The new technology doesn’t have to cost our members their jobs or put their livelihoods at risk just so a terminal operator can boost profits,” the union stated. In a 3 July announcement formalizing the demand, the MUA added: “The technology should be used to improve workers’ lives, not destroy them.”

As of this reporting, the BBC has reached out to DP World for official comment on the union’s claims and the automation program, and has also requested additional details from the MUA. No responses have been released publicly, leaving the future of the negotiations and DP World’s Australian automation rollout unclear.

Australian households are facing growing financial pressure amid a soaring national credit card debt crisis, with fresh data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) laying bare the scale of the burden now weighing on family budgets. The central bank’s latest figures show that consumers added an additional $1.1 billion in credit card charges during May, pushing the month’s total national credit card spending to $29.9 billion.

In a striking shift that signals growing cost-of-living stress, debit card transactions – where consumers draw on their own savings rather than borrowed money – dipped by $11 million to $59.6 billion over the same period. Most alarmingly, RBA data confirms that the total stock of interest-accruing credit card debt held by Australians now sits at $19.4 billion, a sum so large that the collective daily interest bill already outpaces the annual earnings of many full-time workers across the country.

Sally Tindall, director of data insights at financial comparison platform Canstar, explained that more and more households are turning to credit cards as a temporary buffer to cover ongoing essential expenses, as wage growth fails to keep pace with rising inflation and living costs. At the current trajectory, Tindall calculated that Australian borrowers collectively pay an estimated $10 million in credit card interest every single day.

“That’s money that could otherwise be going towards savings, paying down a mortgage or simply helping with everyday living costs,” Tindall noted. The financial analyst warned that the situation could rapidly worsen if borrowers continue to build up balances: if consumers maxed out their current credit limits and carried those balances forward, the collective daily interest cost would surge from $10 million to roughly $55 million at the current national average interest rate of 18.61%.

Tindall stressed that credit cards are not inherently problematic – they can serve as a helpful financial management tool for households that pay off their full balance before the due date each billing cycle. The risk emerges when routine monthly spending rolls over into long-term debt, which accumulates interest at the steep average rate that eats away at household disposable income.

To avoid long-term financial strain, Tindall encouraged Australian borrowers to target a zero credit card balance each month. She added that while most consumers have not yet reached their credit limits, that fact should not be interpreted as permission to keep increasing spending. “Just because your bank has approved you for up to a certain amount, doesn’t make it a good idea to hit that number,” she said, warning that persistent high-interest credit card debt can push already vulnerable households deeper into financial instability.

The Australian share market closed in negative territory on Tuesday, dragged down by two major global shocks: a projectile attack on a Qatari LNG carrier in the strategic Strait of Hormuz that sent crude oil prices surging, and unexpected volatility in global tech markets following mixed results from Samsung Electronics. The benchmark ASX 200 index shed 27.10 points, or 0.31%, to settle at 8803.90, while the broader All Ordinaries index dropped 32.30 points, or 0.36%, to close at 9004.70. The Australian dollar also edged lower, declining 0.17% against the U.S. dollar to trade at 69.43 U.S. cents.

Seven of the 11 major sectors tracked on the ASX recorded losses for the session, with the materials sector – led by large-scale mining and gold producers – suffering the steepest declines. Major miners slumped an average of 2.64% as rising energy costs increased operational expenses for the resource extraction industry. BHP shares fell 1.92% to $58.87, Rio Tinto declined 1.77% to $168.14, and Fortescue Metals Group slipped 0.76% to $18.38.

The attack on the Qatari state-owned LNG carrier, which occurred as the vessel transited the Strait of Hormuz – a critical global energy chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supplies pass – pushed Brent crude oil prices up 1.2% to a one-week high of $72.85 U.S. per barrel. The oil price surge also spilled over to gold markets, pulling gold prices down 0.8% to $4130 U.S. per ounce. That decline hit gold producers hard: Northern Star Resources dropped 5.10% to $20.66, Evolution Mining fell 5.31% to $11.94, and Newmont declined 2.43% to $137.61. Rare earths miner Lynas Rare Earths also closed 6.37% lower at $16.91, following its announcement of a $50 million ordinary equity investment in JS Link to support construction of a new magnet processing factory in Malaysia.

Losses across the materials and mining space were partially offset by strong gains for Australia’s four largest retail banks. Commonwealth Bank of Australia rose 1.24% to $166.70, Westpac Banking Corporation surged 2.38% to $36.13, National Australia Bank jumped 1.47% to $39.22, and ANZ Group added 1.26% to $35.44.

Beyond the energy market disruption, the ASX also faced downward pressure from broad weakness in overseas equity markets. U.S. futures traded in negative territory during Australian trading hours, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.7%. In South Korea, the tech-heavy KOSPI index plummeted 8% in early trading, triggering a 20-minute market-wide circuit breaker that halted all trading activity. The sell-off was sparked by unexpected investor reaction to Samsung Electronics’ quarterly results: even though the global tech giant projected a 19-fold jump in second-quarter operating profit, its share price still fell 8% on the day, dragging down broader market sentiment.

Marc Jocum, senior product and investment strategist at Global X, noted that the domestic Australian economic calendar is unusually light this week, leaving local markets highly sensitive to offshore market developments. “That leaves the Australian share market vulnerable to every twist in the global narrative, whether it’s developments in the Middle East, Asian market volatility, or the resilience of the AI trade, with overseas headlines likely to matter more than domestic data over the coming days,” Jocum explained.

Despite the overall market downturn, a number of individual stocks posted notable gains on Tuesday. Logistics technology firm WiseTech Global saw its shares soar 5.65% to $37.37, after billionaire founder Richard White announced he would step down from his role as executive chairman. White will retain a seat on the company’s board and will take up the new position of chief innovation officer. Media companies Nine Entertainment and Sky New Zealand both closed higher after announcing they had secured joint broadcast rights for both men’s and women’s NRL competitions from 2028 to 2034 for their respective home markets. Nine’s shares gained 0.50% to $0.92, while Sky New Zealand’s rallied 3.75% to $2.77. Wealth management firm Netwealth also climbed 6.73% to $24.43 after upgrading its forecast for funds under administration, projecting growth of between 17% and 30% by the 2027 financial year. Finally, casino operator Star Entertainment gained 1.05% to $0.096 after announcing it had settled a long-running tax dispute with the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) related to pre-2020 junket operations. As part of the settlement, Star will receive a $33 million refund from the $88 million it had previously paid to the tax office to resolve the dispute.

One of Australia’s big four accounting firms has delivered a grim new economic outlook, projecting the nation will enter an extended stretch of stagnant growth not seen since the deep recession of the early 1990s, with another interest rate increase coming this year and no rate cuts on the table until late 2027.

In its monthly Business Outlook report released Tuesday, Deloitte Access Economics laid out a downbeat assessment that warns Australia’s economy will “limp” through the next two years of weak expansion, capping a slow-burn build-up of systemic vulnerabilities that have become impossible to ignore.

“To date, 2026 has revealed the vulnerabilities that have developed within the Australian economy over recent history,” said Stephen Smith, partner at Deloitte Access Economics. “Australia is now structurally exposed in ways that have become hard to ignore. Deloitte Access Economics has rarely adopted such a downbeat assessment of the short-term outlook.”

The firm’s projections call for the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement one final 25 basis point interest rate hike in August, as policymakers continue working to tamed persistent inflation. Following that increase, the central bank is expected to hold the cash rate steady for 12 full months, with the first rate cut not arriving until the final quarter of 2027.

Inflation has proven far stickier than many analysts predicted: headline inflation currently sits at 4%, and Deloitte projects that rate may hold steady into 2027. Trimmed mean inflation, a key core measure tracked by the RBA, climbed to 3.6% in April, and the firm forecasts this metric will peak in early 2027 and will not drop below the RBA’s 2-3% target band until 2028.

These persistent price pressures and rising interest rates will act as a major drag on national output, according to the report. Deloitte projects Australia will record annual growth below 2% for the next two full years, marking the longest continuous stretch of sub-2% expansion since the 1990-1991 recession. That downturn saw official interest rates hit 17% and unemployment surge to 2.5 times Australia’s current jobless rate.

Australian households are already shouldering enormous pressure from cumulative rate hikes, with the average mortgage holder paying an extra $350 per month compared to pre-tightening levels. While recent policy and wage adjustments including tax cuts, nominal wage growth, and increases to award and minimum wages that took effect July 1 have offered some relief, Smith said most gains are being erased by persistent economic headwinds.

“Renewed inflation pressure, high interest rates and volatile fuel costs were eating most of those gains,” Smith explained.

Beyond domestic pressures, the report highlights deep structural vulnerabilities tied to Australia’s reliance on commodity exports. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Smith noted, serves as a sharp reminder that Australia, as a small open economy with a concentrated export base, is extremely vulnerable to global geopolitical disruption, swings in international demand, commodity price volatility, and disruptions to global trade routes.

“The interaction of geopolitical exposure, weak productivity, stretched household balance sheets and a constrained supply side was easy to overlook when interest rates were low, commodity prices were high and population growth kept aggregate growth ticking along,” Smith said. “They are harder to dismiss now that inflation is sticky, investment needs are rising and the global environment is more uncertain.”