After 25 weeks of relentless, unpredictable action across the National Rugby League, the competition’s final two weeks are shaping up to be the most dramatic stretch of the entire season, with multiple historic titles up for grabs, long-standing records on the line, and underdog stories that even Hollywood scriptwriters could not invent.
The most jaw-dropping upset of the entire 2026 campaign unfolded at Leichhardt Oval on Sunday, where the Wests Tigers – guided by coach Benji Marshall – snapped their own eight-game losing skid to knock off the Sydney Roosters, who entered the round sitting atop the league table and riding an eight-match winning streak of their own. Heavily favored oddsmakers had marked the Tigers as 24.5-point underdogs, one of the largest margins for an NRL match in recent memory, but the underdogs pulled off a result no one saw coming. Speaking after the match, Marshall called the victory the proudest moment of his coaching career to date.
That stunning upset completely upended the race for the minor premiership, opening the door for the New Zealand Warriors to climb into first place. A late match-winning field goal from Luke Hanson sealed a 45-26 victory over South Sydney Rabbitohs – a never-before-seen scoreline in NRL history, dubbed a ‘scorigami’ – and pushed the Warriors to a +295 points differential, just one point clear of the second-placed Penrith Panthers. With only two matches remaining for every side, the race for the top minor premiership spot is now too close to call, guaranteed to go down to the final round.
The fight for the final 2026 finals spots remains alive too, albeit with long odds for the two chasing sides. South Sydney’s loss cleared a path for both the Canterbury Bulldogs and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to keep their faint finals hopes alive. Canterbury put on their best offensive showing of the season to crush St. George Illawarra Dragons, and now need to take wins over both Penrith and Brisbane Broncos in the final fortnight, coupled with losses from both South Sydney and North Queensland Cowboys, to book their spot. Manly earned a dominant win in Newcastle to keep their faint chances alive, with a superior points differential giving them the slimmest possible shot at a late finals push.
The race for the league’s leading try-scorer has also tightened dramatically in recent weeks, after Panthers winger Tom Jenkins entered the year on a historic pace to break Dave Brown’s 80-plus year record of 38 tries in a single season. But Jenkins has now gone three straight matches without crossing the try line, opening the door for South Sydney’s Alex Johnston – the most prolific finisher in the modern game – to draw level. Johnston has scored tries in six consecutive matches, bringing his total to 28, tied with Jenkins heading into the final two weeks. A strong finish would see Johnston surpass his own personal best of 30 tries, which he set in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
One of the NRL’s most iconic historic streaks has come to an end this week, after the Melbourne Storm missed out on qualifying for the finals for the first time since 2011, ending a 15-year consecutive finals run. For context, the streak was so reliably automatic that it drew comparisons to the Undertaker’s legendary 21-match WrestleMania winning streak, which famously ended in 2014.
Another historic milestone wrapped up in Canberra this weekend, but there was no fairytale farewell for Raiders legend Josh Papali’i in his final home game. The defending champion Brisbane Broncos, who have endured a disastrous 2026 campaign, returned to the site of their 2025 upset win over Canberra to pick up just their second victory since Anzac Day. The win ensures Brisbane will avoid the wooden spoon (awarded to the league’s last-place side), which will almost certainly go to the Dragons for the first time in the club’s history.
Finally, the race for the prestigious Dally M Medal – awarded to the league’s best player of the year – is now Nathan Cleary’s to lose. The Penrith Panthers playmaker already led the race after Round 12, holding a three-point advantage over his closest rivals, and led his side to a critical win over Melbourne. Most of Cleary’s top competitors for the award, including Jackson Ford, James Tedesco, Braydon Trindall and Cleary’s own teammate Dylan Edwards, have all missed crucial matches in recent weeks due to injury, leaving Cleary as the overwhelming favorite to claim the sport’s top individual honor.