Across Latin America, a series of unfolding 2026 election results have triggered urgent global debate over the future of the Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest tropical carbon sink and a critical bulwark against accelerating climate change. The most recent shift came in Colombia, where businessman and lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella — a Trump-endorsed populist from the opposition Defenders of the Motherland movement — has secured a narrow victory in the country’s presidential runoff, defeating progressive candidate Iván Cepeda by just 1 percentage point, or roughly 251,000 votes. Cepeda formally conceded the race last Wednesday, confirming de la Espriella’s status as Colombia’s next head of state.
The Colombian election outcome follows a broader regional political swing that puts new pressure on Amazon conservation. Just to the south, Peru appears on track to elect Keiko Fujimori to the presidency, while Brazil prepares for a critical upcoming presidential contest that could oust incumbent progressive leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. Combined, Colombia, Peru, and Brazil hold more than 90% of the world’s Amazon rainforest, meaning policy shifts across these three nations could reshape the entire biome’s fate.
For decades, scientists have warned that continued deforestation driven by extractive industries could push large swathes of the Amazon past an irreversible tipping point, where damaged ecosystems can no longer regenerate as functioning rainforest. Under outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the country emerged as a global leader in Amazon protection, championing ambitious climate action and moving away from new fossil fuel development. De la Espriella’s policy platform marks a stark departure from this agenda: the president-elect, nicknamed “The Tiger,” has pledged to revitalize Colombia’s oil sector, approve hydraulic fracking, and prioritize expanded natural resource extraction to drive national economic growth. Environmental advocates warn that this shift could undermine global emissions reduction efforts and open up environmentally sensitive Amazon lands to irreversible damage.
The pattern of pro-extractive policy priorities repeats across the region. Like de la Espriella, Fujimori has signaled she will expand mining development to boost Peru’s economy, a move that has sparked alarm among environmental groups and Indigenous communities who face displacement and ecosystem destruction. In Brazil, the upcoming election follows a clear example of how political leadership directly impacts deforestation rates: during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, Amazon deforestation spiked dramatically as environmental enforcement was gutted, while Lula’s current administration has cut forest loss through stricter regulation. Cristiane Mazzetti, zero deforestation lead at Greenpeace Brazil, noted that presidential priorities directly shape regulatory outcomes for the rainforest.
“The elected administration sets budgetary priorities, fills government positions and shapes regulations to either facilitate or hinder predatory exploitation and environmental crimes,” Mazzetti explained. “The result of this is measurable, as evidenced by the rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.”
U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of de la Espriella aligns with the incoming Colombian leader’s pro-fossil fuel agenda; the current U.S. administration has already rolled back domestic climate policies, expanded domestic oil and gas production, and withdrawn the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global pact designed to limit dangerous global warming.
Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, noted that economic priorities are increasingly outcompeting environmental concerns across the region. “Many of the concerns from environmentalists on emissions and fracking are going to take a second place to some of the economic concerns about energy self-sufficiency, investment and foreign direct investment in oil, gas and mining,” Guzmán said.
Beyond legal extractive projects, the rise of right-leaning governments across the region has also placed a renewed focus on cracking down on illegal gold mining, one of the single largest drivers of Amazon deforestation. Illegal mining clears old-growth forest, contaminates critical river systems with toxic mercury, and generates billions of dollars in annual revenue for transnational criminal networks. While nearly all regional governments agree that illegal mining must be addressed, experts say current policy approaches have failed to target the root of the problem.
“There’s an interesting alignment, particularly across the Andes region and the broader Amazon basin,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group. “It’s very hard to disagree with the idea of going after illegal mining, one of the most detrimental industries for the Amazon basin. What we really haven’t reached is an ability to tackle the intellectual authors of these operations,” she added, noting that most current efforts focus on seizing equipment and clearing mining camps rather than dismantling the criminal and financial networks that enable the activity.
Indigenous communities, who govern large swathes of intact Amazon territory, are already preparing for increased pressure on their lands. Across the basin, Indigenous territories overlap with most areas targeted for new mining, oil, and infrastructure development, and Indigenous leaders have long criticized governments for failing to consult communities before approving high-impact projects. Julio Cusurichi, a prominent Indigenous leader from Peru’s Amazon region, said Indigenous communities will continue to organize to secure a seat at the decision-making table.
“Our biodiversity, our territories, our knowledge and our wisdom can contribute greatly to addressing climate change,” Cusurichi said. “In our territories, we have shown that we can provide governance not only for our peoples, but for the planet.”
Analysts point to Indigenous policy as one clear early indicator of the new Colombian administration’s environmental approach: how de la Espriella handles required consultation processes, environmental licensing, and approval for new extractive projects in sensitive ecosystems will set the tone for his presidency’s impact on the rainforest. De la Espriella’s plans to increase military pressure on criminal groups and resume aerial fumigation of coca crops, a policy long controversial in Colombia, could also bring unintended harm to Amazon communities and ecosystems. Critics note that fumigation damages native vegetation, contaminates drinking water, and pushes coca growers to clear new forest areas deeper in the Amazon to continue production.
Still, some analysts caution against assuming widespread weakening of environmental protections is inevitable. In Colombia, independent courts, Congress, well-established environmental institutions, and powerful Indigenous advocacy groups remain influential. In addition, modern satellite monitoring technology has made it far easier to track and expose illegal deforestation, making it harder for bad actors to hide environmental damage.
Even so, many residents of Amazon communities remain deeply concerned about the coming policy shifts. Arnaldo Rufino, an Indigenous Ticuna resident in the Colombian Amazon city of Leticia, said political leaders should prioritize the rainforest’s long-term health over short-term economic gains from extraction. “It means cutting down the trees that allow humanity to breathe,” Rufino said.
This coverage of climate and environmental issues is supported by private philanthropic funding, with The Associated Press retaining full editorial control over all content.
