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  • Israel advances plan to seize Palestinian property near Al-Aqsa Mosque

    Israel advances plan to seize Palestinian property near Al-Aqsa Mosque

    The Israeli government has moved forward with long-dormant plans to seize privately owned Palestinian property in the sensitive area surrounding Jerusalem’s Old City Al-Aqsa Mosque, a step Palestinian leaders and residents decry as a deliberate push to “Judaise” the contested holy city.

    On Sunday, Israeli cabinet ministers voted unanimously to establish a cross-governmental working group tasked with clearing legal and bureaucratic barriers to enacting decades-old expropriation orders for properties along Chain Gate (known locally as Bab al-Silsila), the primary pedestrian corridor leading directly to the western entrances of Al-Aqsa Mosque.

    Israeli officials and national Hebrew media frame the move as a routine measure to solidify Israeli sovereignty over the Old City and create connected thoroughfares linking Jaffa Gate, the Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall. Israeli government accounts frame the step as the finalization of a 1960s land seizure process, launched shortly after Israel occupied and annexed East Jerusalem in the 1967 Six-Day War. Official government documents repeatedly reference the need to “implement” long-overdue historic confiscation orders, noting the new inter-ministerial panel will resolve decades of legal and planning delays that kept the orders from being enacted.

    Jerusalem municipal officials estimate the orders would impact approximately 15 to 20 Palestinian-owned residential homes and commercial storefronts located along the corridor. Stretching through one of the Old City’s most densely populated and politically sensitive districts, the narrow stone-paved Chain Gate route is flanked by centuries-old Islamic educational institutions, Mamluk and Ottoman-era historical structures, local shops and small family-owned restaurants, according to Sheikh Ekrima Sabri, the senior imam of Al-Aqsa Mosque. Sabri emphasized that most of the targeted properties are tied to Islamic waqf endowments and longstanding religious institutions that surround the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, one of the most sacred sites in Islam.

    “Every measure carried out by the occupation serves the project of changing Jerusalem’s identity,” Sabri told independent regional outlet Middle East Eye, labeling the latest decision as yet another deliberate attempt to erase Palestinian and Islamic identity from the city.

    The approval of the confiscation plan comes at a moment of already soaring friction across occupied East Jerusalem, as Palestinians grow increasingly alarmed that Israeli authorities are ramping up territorial and demographic changes in the Old City while global attention is fixed on the ongoing war in Gaza and widening regional escalation. Palestinian officials and community activists argue that the global focus on the Gaza conflict has significantly reduced international scrutiny of Israeli policy shifts in Jerusalem, creating a window of opportunity for accelerated land seizures.

    Khalil Tawfikji, a leading Jerusalem affairs analyst, explained that the targeted properties were first formally seized shortly after the 1967 occupation under Israeli legislation designed for expropriation for “public benefit” – a legal tool typically reserved for building schools, hospitals and public infrastructure, but which was instead deployed to transfer vast swathes of the Old City into Israeli state ownership.

    “These properties were confiscated in the name of public benefit, but the public they meant was the Israeli public,” Tawfikji told Middle East Eye. “Not the Palestinian, Muslim, or Christian public.” Over the decades following the 1967 occupation, most Palestinian families living in the Bab al-Silsila area were gradually displaced, leaving only a small handful of Palestinian residents and business owners remaining today. Tawfikji pointed to the timing of the latest move as particularly significant, arguing Israeli leaders are actively exploiting the current distracted regional and international climate to consolidate full control over one of the Old City’s most geographically and politically strategic corridors. Already, he noted, Israeli settlers have occupied the upper floors of several targeted buildings, while Palestinian shopkeepers continue to operate on the ground level.

    “This is about reshaping the area,” Tawfikji said. “Whoever controls the Old City controls the narrative presented to the world. Controlling this space means controlling the image of Jerusalem before the world.” The Bab al-Silsila corridor holds unique strategic importance not only for its direct access to Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Western Wall, but also for its proximity to the Via Dolorosa, the iconic Christian pilgrimage route that marks the path Jesus is believed to have walked to his crucifixion. “The Old City is where the three religions meet. For Christians, there is the Way of Sorrows; for Muslims, Al-Aqsa Mosque; and for Jews, the Western Wall,” Tawfikji added.

    The Israeli government proposal also outlines a plan to create what it calls a “continuous urban space” that connects disparate sections of the Jewish Quarter and creates unbroken access routes to the Western Wall. Sabri reported that Palestinian and Islamic officials are currently mobilizing to block the confiscation plan through both domestic legal challenges and international diplomatic outreach, including coordination with Jordanian officials who hold formal jurisdiction over the Jerusalem Islamic waqf. “There are political and diplomatic efforts taking place,” Sabri confirmed.

    For many Palestinian residents of Jerusalem, however, the anxiety surrounding the decision goes far beyond the specific properties at risk, reflecting broader fears of the steady erosion of Palestinian presence and identity around Al-Aqsa Mosque and across the Old City as a whole. The inter-ministerial working group is scheduled to deliver its recommendations for implementing the confiscation orders within the coming months.

  • Exclusive: ICC prosecutor’s office seeks arrest warrant for Israel’s Smotrich

    Exclusive: ICC prosecutor’s office seeks arrest warrant for Israel’s Smotrich

    In a development that deepens the International Criminal Court’s controversial investigation into alleged crimes against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, sources familiar with the process have confirmed to Middle East Eye that the ICC Office of the Prosecutor submitted a confidential arrest warrant application last month for Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

    Contrary to earlier Israeli media reports that claimed five warrant applications had been filed against senior Israeli officials over the weekend, MEE has verified those claims are inaccurate. While an evidence review was held last Wednesday to advance potential applications for two additional figures—including Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir—those documents have not yet been formally submitted to the court.

    The charges laid out against Smotrich in the pending application are unprecedented for an international court. They include the war crimes and crimes against humanity of forced population transfer of Israeli civilians into occupied territory, forced displacement of Palestinian civilians, along with the crimes against humanity of persecution and apartheid. If the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber approves the warrant, it will mark the first time an international court has issued an arrest warrant on apartheid charges against a sitting senior government official.

    The application was formally logged with the court on April 2, capping months of growing pressure from Palestinian authorities for the prosecutor’s office to take action against Smotrich and Ben Gvir. In a March letter to ICC deputy prosecutors obtained by MEE, the Palestinian Mission to The Hague submitted new, detailed evidence documenting alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Israeli occupation forces and unauthorized Israeli settlers in the West Bank. The letter also emphasized that Israeli domestic judicial authorities have refused to initiate credible prosecutions for the alleged offenses.

    “The urgency to take action now cannot be overstated in any way, with the erasure and the destruction of the Palestinian people, as manifested by an illegal occupant, materializing by the day,” the mission’s letter stated.

    When MEE reached out to the ICC Office of the Prosecutor for comment on the Smotrich application, a spokesperson declined to directly confirm or deny the filing, stopping short of an explicit denial. Citing the court’s November 2024 amended regulations, which require all arrest warrant applications to remain classified under seal unless ICC judges explicitly authorize public disclosure, the spokesperson explained the court cannot address questions about any alleged warrant request.

    “The Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC is unable to comment on questions related to any alleged application for a warrant of arrest,” the spokesperson said.

    In an earlier statement to Reuters on Sunday, ICC spokesperson Oriane Maillet said the court “denies the issuance of new arrest warrants in the situation in the state of Palestine.” Legal analysts note this comment is inconsistent with the court’s own secrecy rules, as the regulation bars any public comment on the existence or status of pending applications, and the denial only addresses whether a warrant has been issued, not whether an application has been filed. Per MEE’s reporting, the OTP’s official current communications policy is to decline to either confirm or deny existence of any pending arrest warrant applications, bringing the earlier public denial out of step with established procedure.

    If judges ultimately approve the warrant for Smotrich, he will become the third senior Israeli official to face an ICC arrest warrant. The court issued warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024 over alleged war crimes connected to the 2023-2025 Gaza campaign, a move that triggered an aggressive retaliatory campaign from Israel and the United States, which has targeted the court with threats and sanctions to force an end to the investigation.

    Since the start of the second Trump administration in February 2025, the U.S. has imposed sweeping financial and visa sanctions on ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, his two deputy prosecutors, eight sitting ICC judges, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Palestine, and three leading Palestinian human rights organizations, all tied to the court’s investigation. All three pre-trial judges who approved the Netanyahu and Gallant warrants—Reine Alapini-Gansou of Benin, Beti Hohler of Slovenia, and Nicolas Guillou of France—have been targeted with U.S. sanctions. Despite the personal disruption the measures have caused, the three judges have continued their official duties, including their current review of the Smotrich application. The U.S. has also threatened to impose full sanctions on the ICC as an institution, a step court insiders have described as a catastrophic “doomsday scenario” for the court’s functionality.

    The court is currently navigating two procedural challenges brought by Israel: one challenging the ICC’s very jurisdiction over the Palestinian territories, and a separate November 17 complaint seeking to disqualify the chief prosecutor over unsubstantiated claims of bias against Israel. It remains unclear how long pre-trial judges will take to issue a ruling on the Smotrich application.

    Historically, ICC pre-trial chambers take several months to review and rule on warrant applications, though timelines have varied widely. The court approved warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte in roughly one month each, while the Netanyahu and Gallant applications took six months to process. As of the latest updates, the Smotrich application has not received final judicial approval, and a final decision could still be months away.

    It is important to clarify the distinct two-stage process for arrest warrants at the ICC, which separates investigative work from judicial review. The OTP, which is currently led by the two deputy prosecutors while Khan remains on a leave of absence, conducts all investigative work, collects evidence, and builds the prosecutorial case. Once the OTP determines the legal threshold for a warrant has been met, it submits a formal application laying out the alleged crimes and the evidence connecting the suspect to those offenses. The application is then transferred to the Pre-Trial Chamber, a three-judge panel, which independently reviews the prosecution’s evidence to determine if there are “reasonable grounds to believe” the suspect committed a crime falling within the court’s jurisdiction. The panel can approve a warrant on any subset of the proposed charges, approve all charges, or reject the application entirely.

    MEE first reported last year that Chief Prosecutor Khan had prepared draft warrant applications for both Ben Gvir and Smotrich ahead of his May 2024 leave. The applications were delayed by the acting deputy prosecutors leading the office in Khan’s absence, in large part due to existing threats of U.S. sanctions. Just days after MEE published that initial report, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on the two deputy prosecutors.

    Smotrich and Ben Gvir have faced growing international consequences for their policies toward Palestinians since June 2025, when a coordinated global sanctions campaign targeted both men over repeated public statements and policy actions that multiple governments have characterized as advocating ethnic cleansing and extermination of Palestinian communities. Both ministers are residents of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are universally recognized as illegal under international law, and both have publicly pushed for full Israeli annexation of the West Bank and the resettlement of Israeli civilians in the Gaza Strip following the 2023-2025 war.

    In June 2025, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Norway jointly imposed national sanctions on the two ministers, freezing any assets they hold in those jurisdictions and issuing entry bans. “The ministers have incited extremist violence and serious abuses of Palestinian human rights,” then-UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said at the time. Under the UK sanctions regime, it is a criminal offense to provide any funds to either man, and they are barred from holding or promoting interests in any UK-registered company.

    Multiple other Western nations have followed suit with their own restrictions. In July 2025, Slovenia became the first European Union member state to declare both men persona non grata, while the Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain have implemented national travel bans. The Dutch entry ban applies across the entire 29-nation Schengen Area, which allows for free movement between participating states.

    An EU-wide sanctions proposal targeting Ben Gvir and Smotrich has been under consideration for nearly two years. Then-EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell first introduced the proposal in August 2024, describing the ministers’ statements as “incitement to war crimes,” but the measure failed after it could not secure the required unanimity among all EU member states. Current High Representative Kaja Kallas revived the initiative, and in September 2025 the European Commission formally proposed a broader package that included a partial suspension of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, alongside targeted sanctions against Hamas leaders, violent extremist Israeli settlers, and the two Israeli cabinet ministers.

    On May 11, the EU Foreign Affairs Council reached an agreement to sanction unauthorized settler organizations and Hamas leaders, but removed both Smotrich and Ben Gvir from the sanctions list after Germany, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary publicly confirmed they would not support including the ministers. The U.S. has consistently opposed all international sanctions on the two ministers, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly urging allied nations to reverse their existing sanctions, while the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on ICC officials to pressure the court to abandon its Israel-related investigations.

  • Bodies of missing Italian divers found in Maldives

    Bodies of missing Italian divers found in Maldives

    A devastating scuba diving accident in the Maldives, one of the Indian Ocean’s most popular tropical tourist destinations, has left six people dead, marking the deadliest single diving incident in the nation’s modern history. Last Thursday, a group of five Italian divers entered the water at Vaavu Atoll, roughly 62 miles south of the capital city of Male, and never resurfaced as scheduled. Now, officials have confirmed to the BBC that a joint search team made up of elite Finnish and Maldivian rescue divers has located the remains of the four still-missing members of the group, trapped inside a narrow underwater cave 60 meters below the surface.

    The fifth Italian diver’s body was recovered just hours after the group failed to return to their boat on Thursday. But the tragedy deepened on Saturday, when a Maldivian military Staff Sergeant Mohamed Mahdhee, a rescue diver part of the eight-person search team, went missing during the operation. When Mahdhee failed to surface with his teammates, they immediately conducted an emergency search and found him unconscious, and he could not be revived.

    The recovered Italian victims include two researchers from the University of Genoa: marine science professor Monica Montefalcone, and research fellow Muriel Oddenino, who had traveled to the Maldives to conduct field work on how climate change is impacting coral reef biodiversity. Also killed were Montefalcone’s daughter, Giorgia Sommacal, a University of Genoa student, recent graduate Federico Gualtieri, and boat operations manager and lead diving instructor Gianluca Benedetti — the first victim whose body was retrieved after the accident.

    At the time of the dive, local authorities had issued a yellow weather warning for the area, noting rough sea conditions that posed heightened risks for small vessels and divers. Mohamed Hossain Shareef, a spokesperson for the Maldivian government, confirmed that the research team held a valid scientific permit, active through the end of that week, that allowed diving to a maximum depth of 50 meters across multiple atolls, including Vaavu. The permit specifically approved their work studying coral, but did not mention any plan to explore the nearby cave, whose opening sits 47 meters below the ocean surface.

    Irregularities have already emerged around the dive: only three of the five Italian divers were listed as research personnel on the permit, and Sommacal and Benedetti were not included in the approved mission. In a statement to the BBC, the University of Genoa clarified that it had never authorized any deep-sea diving activity as part of the team’s approved research mission. Officials at the university noted that any permit requests submitted to Maldivian authorities for the dive were made outside the bounds of the officially approved research mission, and that the fatal cave dive was undertaken by the group in a personal capacity, separate from their academic work. The university also expressed profound sorrow over the loss of life, extending its condolences to the families of all the deceased.

    Recovery operations are set to unfold over the coming days, Shareef confirmed. Two of the four trapped bodies are scheduled to be brought to the surface on Tuesday, with the remaining two to be recovered the following day. The four located remains are trapped in the third and furthest chamber of the cave, requiring specialized additional dives to extract them safely. An official investigation is currently ongoing to determine the full sequence of events and root causes that led to the accident.

  • Two men arrested over stunt at enclosure of famed monkey Punch

    Two men arrested over stunt at enclosure of famed monkey Punch

    An internet-famous baby macaque at a Japanese zoo has found himself at the center of an unexpected international incident, after two American men were arrested for trespassing into his enclosure earlier this week.

    Nine-month-old Punch, a baby Japanese macaque, won global hearts earlier this year after footage of him clinging to a stuffed orangutan toy went viral across social media. Abandoned by his mother shortly after birth, Punch relied on the soft toy for comfort while he struggled to bond with the other macaques in his troop at Ichikawa City Zoo, located just outside Tokyo. Recent updates from the zoo had brought good news, however: after months of gradual socialization, Punch is finally integrating with the rest of the group, even being spotted grooming other monkeys and returning hugs from his new companions.

    According to local Japanese police, the incident unfolded on Sunday morning. Authorities say a 24-year-old American college student climbed over a perimeter fence to enter Punch’s enclosed habitat, while a second 27-year-old American man, who identifies as a singer, filmed the reckless stunt. Clips of the incident captured by other visiting zoo guests and shared online show the trespasser wearing a full costume while carrying a stuffed toy, with the costume reportedly designed to promote a cryptocurrency project. Zoo staff quickly intercepted the intruder and escorted him out of the enclosure without any harm coming to Punch or the other macaques in the habitat.

    Both men have been taken into police custody on suspicion of forcible obstruction of the zoo’s lawful business operations, and both have denied the allegations against them. Ichikawa Police confirmed to AFP that the intruders never reached the area where the animals were housed and were apprehended within minutes, so no animals were injured during the incident.

    In a formal statement released on Monday, Ichikawa City Zoo officials confirmed they had filed an official damage report with local law enforcement and are already implementing new security measures to prevent similar reckless incidents from happening in the future. Planned upgrades include expanding the restricted public viewing zone around Punch’s enclosure and installing new anti-intrusion netting along the perimeter. The facility is also considering a total ban on personal filming around the enclosure and has temporarily paused all requests from content creators to film at the site.

    This is not the first time a viral animal celebrity has drawn unwanted trespassing from visitors seeking their own 15 minutes of fame. Just one month prior, a man was fined $300 for breaking into the enclosure of Moo Deng, the globally famous baby pygmy hippo at a Thai zoo, who also went viral for viral photos and clips of the young endangered animal. Wildlife and zoo officials have repeatedly warned that unauthorized entry into animal enclosures puts both visitors and animals at severe risk, and can disrupt the carefully managed social environments that captive animal populations rely on.

  • Israel to build military ‘museum’ on ruins of Unrwa HQ in Jerusalem

    Israel to build military ‘museum’ on ruins of Unrwa HQ in Jerusalem

    In a decision timed to coincide with Jerusalem Day, the Israeli national holiday marking its 1967 seizure of East Jerusalem, Israeli authorities have greenlit construction of a new government military complex on the plot that once held the headquarters of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in Jerusalem.

    Under the approved plan, nearly 8.9 acres (36 dunams) of the cleared land will be repurposed to host three key Israeli defense installations: a national military museum, a centralized military recruitment center, and an official office for Israel’s defense minister.

    Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly confirmed the decision in a May 17, 2025 post to X, framing the move as a deliberate assertion of Israeli sovereignty over occupied East Jerusalem. “We outlawed this terror-supporting UN organisation and took the land, and now on its ruins we are building and strengthening Jerusalem – the eternal capital of the Jewish people,” Katz wrote. The project was advanced under the current government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, per the Hebrew-language statement Katz shared alongside his announcement.

    This development is the latest escalation in a years-long Israeli campaign to eliminate UNRWA’s presence in East Jerusalem. Israeli bulldozers already demolished the UNRWA compound in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem back in late January 2025, after months of increasing pressure on the agency.

    Israel’s long-standing hostility toward UNRWA stems in large part from the agency’s core mandate: it maintains the official refugee status of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced from their homes during the 1948 Nakba, along with their descendants, a status the Israeli government rejects outright. Tensions escalated further in early 2024, when Israeli officials leveled allegations that 12 UNRWA staff had participated in the October 7, 2023 attacks led by Hamas, claiming the workers helped distribute ammunition and abduct civilian hostages. A independent UN review of the accusations, published in April 2024, found no credible evidence of wrongdoing by any UNRWA employees. The report also noted that Israeli officials failed to provide requested identifying information or evidence to support their claims, and had not raised any specific, concrete concerns about UNRWA staff with the agency since 2011. This pattern of unsubstantiated accusations linking UNRWA to terrorist activity has been repeated by Israeli officials for years, with no verifiable evidence ever made public to back the claims.

    The plan to relocate the military recruitment center from its current location in Jerusalem’s Romema neighborhood to the former UNRWA site is also directly tied to ongoing domestic political friction within Israel. For years, Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community has held widespread protests against mandatory military conscription, creating persistent tension at the existing Romema induction facility that officials now seek to avoid by moving the center.

    Human rights organizations and international policy experts have repeatedly warned that eliminating UNRWA’s operations would leave millions of vulnerable Palestinian refugees across the occupied territories without critical support. UNRWA currently serves as the primary humanitarian lifeline for an estimated 5.9 million Palestinian refugees across the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza, and neighboring neighboring Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. The agency provides core essential services including primary and secondary education, food assistance, primary medical care, and emergency fuel distributions during crises. Humanitarian groups warn that a full collapse of UNRWA would eliminate the main source of support for millions of Palestinians, triggering a widespread humanitarian catastrophe.

    The Jerusalem Governorate, the administrative body governing the occupied Palestinian territory of East Jerusalem, condemned the new military complex plan as a “serious escalation and a blatant violation of international law.” The office added that the project violates both the Fourth Geneva Convention, which governs protections for populations under military occupation, and the 1946 UN Convention on Privileges and Immunities, which protects UN property and operations from unilateral seizure by member states. The governorate’s statement characterized the decision as part of an accelerating colonial campaign to impose new Judaizing demographic and territorial realities on occupied East Jerusalem, noting that the project advances Israel’s narrative of exclusive sovereignty over the city while effectively erasing documented Palestinian historical presence and claims to the land.

    International law has long held that Israel’s decades-long occupation of Palestinian territory captured in the 1967 war is unlawful, due to its permanent nature and the Israeli government’s de facto policy of annexing occupied Palestinian land, including East Jerusalem.

  • From indemnity to indispensability: China’s 125-year reversal

    From indemnity to indispensability: China’s 125-year reversal

    One hundred and twenty-five years ago, in August 1900, eight foreign military powers raised their flags over occupied Beijing, marking one of the lowest points in modern Chinese history. Few in the imperial Forbidden City could have predicted that in 2026, the same capital would welcome the sitting president of the United States as an honored state guest, followed just days later by the leader of Russia — a stark reversal of power dynamics that reads like a carefully crafted historical drama.

    The 1900 invasion was led by a loose Eight-Nation Alliance of Austria-Hungary, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, and the United States. Roughly 52,000 alliance troops marched into the capital, looting and damaging the Forbidden City and the Old Summer Palace, destroying irreplaceable ancient literary collections including the *Yongle Dadian* and *Siku Quanshu*, and forcing the Qing Dynasty to sign the punitive Boxer Protocol one year later. This unequal treaty imposed crippling indemnities on China, granted extraterritorial rights to foreign powers, and allowed permanent foreign troop garrisons on Chinese soil, stripping China of core sovereign control.

    By May 2026, the geopolitical table had turned entirely. On the same Beijing soil, the same eight nations’ modern successor states watched from the sidelines as China, not foreign diplomatic missions, set the agenda for high-stakes great power diplomacy. The 2026 Trump-Xi summit stood as the complete opposite of the 1901 humiliation: it was the visiting U.S. president who offered effusive praise to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, calling him “my friend” and “tall, very tall,” while the Chinese delegation offered measured diplomatic language and made no concrete concessions on key sticking points including Taiwan, trade, fentanyl control, and artificial intelligence. In 1901, the Qing court was forced into exile in Xi’an and coerced into signing away national interests; in 2026, Air Force One departed Beijing before the U.S. president even publicly addressed the Taiwan issue.

    This contrast is not a simple moral judgment, but a structural observation of shifting global power. Where Beijing once was a conquered prize for foreign armies, it now operates as a central convening power for global diplomacy, and the long-standing pattern of great powers forcing their agendas on China has been quietly inverted.

    The 1900 Eight-Nation Alliance was never bound by a formal treaty or official declaration of war; it was only held together by a temporary convergence of anti-China interests. In 2026, the language of strategic friendship now sits firmly on Beijing’s side of the negotiating table. Xi has long referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a friend, having built a “no limits” strategic partnership with Moscow since 2022, marked by joint official statements, high-profile informal summits, and deepening bilateral coordination. Putin’s visit to Beijing immediately following Trump’s summit, which he explicitly framed as an opportunity to “share opinions on the contacts that the Chinese had with the Americans,” confirms that triangular great power diplomacy now runs through Beijing, not around it.

    Yet today’s asymmetric relationships mirror the 1901 asymmetries in reverse. Russia relies on China for more than one-third of its imports and one-quarter of its total exports, while Russia accounts for only 4% of China’s total trade volume — a smaller share than Vietnam. The position of the supplicant has shifted, even as the geographic stage of Beijing remains the same.

    It would be easy to frame this historical arc as a story of unbroken linear ascent for China, but the underlying data tells a more nuanced story. Arguments that China has reached its economic and demographic peak draw on hard evidence: a national fertility rate of just 1.0 in 2025, a fourth consecutive year of population decline, a growing share of young Chinese people reporting no desire to have children, and 2021 marking the highest point of China’s nominal GDP convergence with the United States. The Belt and Road Initiative has faced stalled progress in multiple partner countries, unforgiving demographic headwinds persist, and China’s global cultural soft power remains modest by standard international metrics.

    The 2026 back-to-back summits in Beijing therefore capture not a permanent new global order, but a specific, possibly peak moment where China’s industrial scale, deliberate diplomatic patience, and the relative disorganization of its global competitors have converged. The Eight-Nation Alliance arrived at a historic low point for China; today’s summits are taking place at, or very near, a historic high. Both moments are snapshots of a particular time, not permanent destinies.

    Three key conclusions emerge from this historical comparison. First, national sovereignty is now the default starting point for all global negotiations, rather than a prize to be won. The 1901 Boxer Protocol made Chinese sovereignty conditional on foreign approval; the 2026 Beijing summits take full Chinese sovereignty as an unchallenged given. Any future regional order in Asia will be negotiated between sovereign equal states, or it will not emerge at all — regardless of which great power is ascendant in any given decade.

    Second, personality-driven diplomacy has clear limits for all parties. Trump’s bet on personal charm yielded only vague non-binding commitments around Boeing aircraft purchases and soybean exports, which Beijing declined to confirm in any detail. This lesson is not limited to U.S. partisan politics, but is a procedural reality: centralized governance systems reward structured preparation, not off-the-cuff improvisation, regardless of whether a visiting leader comes from Washington, Moscow, or Tokyo.

    Third, the window for China’s current strategic advantage is narrower than triumphalist narratives suggest. If current demographic and economic growth trends hold, the broad strategic latitude China enjoys in 2026 may not still exist by 2046. This reality calls for strategic patience from all major capitals: for Beijing, the best long-term strategy is to exercise restraint while it holds advantageous cards, and for Washington, the most effective response is consistent institutional competence rather than performative political spectacle.

    History reminds us that the 1900 Eight-Nation Alliance dissolved within just a year of its victory, as it never had a binding formal framework to hold it together. Coalitions assembled for a single moment rarely outlast that moment. The same caution applies to every strategic partnership, whether it is the Sino-Russian alignment, transpacific relations, or any other cooperation that looks unbreakable in the glow of a state banquet. The most reliable lesson of history, from 1901 to 2026, is that a single photo of leaders on a palace steps never tells the full story.

  • Petrochemical crunch hits supply chains across Asia

    Petrochemical crunch hits supply chains across Asia

    More than 11 weeks into the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, widespread economic disruption is rippling through the interconnected industrial supply chains of Asia, driven by a rapidly deepening shortage of critical petrochemical products, most notably naphtha. Before the outbreak of hostilities, nearly all naphtha exported from Middle Eastern producers was destined for Asian markets, according to Darryl Xu, principal analyst for base chemicals and feedstocks at ICIS Analytics based in Singapore. Middle Eastern suppliers account for roughly 65% of all naphtha imports into Asia, but shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz have halted the vast majority of these cargoes, and alternative supply sources are unable to fully offset the gap, Xu explained. Naphtha, a fundamental derivative of crude petroleum, is a core input for manufacturing solvents and the resin used in commercial printing inks. Persistent supply shortages have the potential to disrupt sectors spanning food packaging, consumer goods, medical equipment manufacturing and infrastructure construction materials across the region. Last week, major Japanese snack manufacturer Calbee announced it would transition packaging for a selection of its potato chip lines to simplified black-and-white packaging, labeled explicitly as “packaging for conserving petroleum materials.” “The company will revise the packaging specifications of some of its products as an interim measure, with the highest priority placed on ensuring a stable supply of products,” Calbee stated in an official release Tuesday. Despite these industry adaptations, Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kei Sato told reporters the Japanese government had not received any reports of immediate, widespread disruptions to naphtha or printing ink supplies, and maintains the country has secured sufficient stockpiles to meet near-term demand, Reuters reported. In the Republic of Korea, growing anxiety is mounting across the food packaging sector, as the national government works to implement emergency measures to stabilize volatile supplies. Local industry leaders report that raw material costs have surged 40 to 50% since the outbreak of the conflict. The ROK and Japan rank among the most vulnerable Northeast Asian economies to naphtha supply shocks, explained Kwon Seok-joon, an associate professor of chemical engineering at Sungkyunkwan University. In the first half of 2026, roughly 45 to 47% of the ROK’s total naphtha supply is imported, and more than three-quarters of those imported volumes originate from Middle Eastern producers, Kwon noted. Beyond the immediate shipping disruptions, the greater long-term risk stems from the structural vulnerabilities inherent in the ROK’s petrochemical sector, which is structured around naphtha refining, Kwon added. While Japan also faces high exposure to supply disruptions, the ROK’s vertically integrated petrochemical industry is far more dependent on naphtha-based refineries, leaving downstream manufacturing sectors including plastics, rubber, packaging and paints disproportionately exposed to shocks. “If the current situation continues for several more months, the sustainability of these industries could become very fragile,” Kwon warned. Even if full navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is restored immediately, naphtha supplies will not rebound quickly to pre-conflict levels, due to accumulated shipping backlogs, permanently elevated freight and insurance costs, and mismatched contracting terms between existing Middle Eastern supply agreements and newly sourced alternative cargoes, he added. Following the outbreak of the crisis, buyers are now paying price premiums of up to $150 per metric ton to secure available naphtha cargoes, Xu said, while major Asian producers of plastics and olefins — the foundational building blocks of the global petrochemical sector — have been forced to cut operating rates to minimum levels. Even at reduced output, a single large olefins plant still requires more than 150,000 tons of naphtha to maintain operations. Kwon projected that the ongoing crisis will likely compel policymakers and industry leaders across major Asian economies to implement long-term structural adjustments to reduce reliance on single-source Middle Eastern energy and petrochemical inputs.

  • Philippine senate convenes as impeachment court to try vice president as political storm rages

    Philippine senate convenes as impeachment court to try vice president as political storm rages

    MANILA, Philippines — A high-stakes political crisis has engulfed the Philippines, as the country’s Senate convened an impeachment court Monday to try Vice President Sara Duterte on a slate of criminal allegations, just days after a violent gunfight erupted inside the chamber amid escalating power struggles between the nation’s top two leaders. The proceedings mark the climax of weeks of growing tension between Duterte and her former political ally, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., that has laid bare the deep ideological and partisan divides that have long troubled the Southeast Asian democracy.

    The impeachment proceedings got their start one week prior, when the Philippine House of Representatives voted by a wide majority to advance three core charges against Duterte: unexplained unexplained wealth, misuse of public state funds, and a public threat to assassinate President Marcos Jr. if she were killed amid their ongoing political feud. A rising political figure who has already publicly announced her intent to run for the presidency in the 2028 national election, Duterte has issued a blanket denial of all charges but has declined to respond to the specific allegations in any detail.

    The crisis is deeply tied to the legal troubles of Duterte’s father, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who was taken into custody by the International Criminal Court (ICC) earlier this year on charges of crimes against humanity. Those charges stem from the former president’s deadly nationwide anti-drug crackdown, launched during his six years in office, that left thousands of mostly low-level, petty drug suspects dead. Sara Duterte has publicly blamed Marcos Jr. for orchestrating what she calls the “kidnapping” of her ailing father, referring to his March arrest and transfer to ICC custody in The Hague.

    The path to this week’s impeachment trial has already been marked by dramatic, unprecedented chaos in the Senate. Last Monday, 13 of the chamber’s 24 senators — led by a bloc of close Duterte allies — launched a surprise power grab to oust the sitting Senate president and install their own candidate, Alan Peter Cayetano, leaving the final outcome of the impeachment trial deeply uncertain. The power play relied entirely on the unexpected appearance of Senator Ronald dela Rosa, a long-time Duterte confidant who had spent months in hiding to avoid an ICC arrest warrant.

    Dela Rosa, who served as national police chief during Rodrigo Duterte’s anti-drug crackdown, was named by the ICC as a co-conspirator in the alleged crimes against humanity, and the court unsealed an arrest warrant for him just last Monday. After months in self-imposed hiding, Dela Rosa emerged last week, traveling to the Senate in a van arranged by Cayetano. When National Bureau of Investigation agents moved to arrest him upon his arrival, Dela Rosa fled into the Senate complex, darting up a stairwell to the plenary hall, where Cayetano and his bloc placed him under the chamber’s official “protective custody.”

    What followed was a days-long tense standoff between Senate security personnel and NBI agents, who had positioned themselves in an adjacent government building. The standoff boiled over into open gunfire Wednesday night, when Senate security fired what their chief Mao Aplasca described as warning shots toward the agents. In the aftermath of the shooting, President Marcos addressed the nation in a late-night national television broadcast, urging the public to remain calm amid the escalating unrest.

    In a new twist that deepened suspicions of political sabotage, Cayetano later confirmed that Dela Rosa had disappeared from the protected Senate chamber. Government investigators are now probing whether the gunfight was deliberately instigated by Duterte allies to create enough chaos to allow Dela Rosa to slip away from custody entirely. With the impeachment trial now underway and control of the Senate still contested, the Philippines faces one of its most severe political crises in recent decades, as the rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte political clans spills out into open institutional conflict.

  • Driver of crashed train tested positive for drugs, Thai police say

    Driver of crashed train tested positive for drugs, Thai police say

    On a Saturday afternoon in central Bangkok, a devastating collision at the Asoke-Din Daeng railway crossing has left eight people dead and dozens more injured, after a freight train slammed into a public bus that became stranded on active tracks, triggering an intense fire that engulfed the vehicle. In the days following the tragedy, Thai authorities have unveiled troubling findings that point to both human error and longstanding systemic failures as core causes of the deadliest railway incident in the country in recent years.

    Officials confirmed late last week that the freight train driver tested positive for illegal substances following the crash, and has since been formally charged with reckless driving. Preliminary data pulled from the train’s black box shows the driver only activated the emergency braking system when the train was roughly 100 meters from the stopped bus — a distance too short to stop the heavy vehicle in time to avoid impact. Beyond the train driver, two other people are also facing criminal charges: the bus driver, who got stuck on the tracks amid peak-hour gridlock, and the manual crossing guard responsible for lowering safety barriers, which failed to deploy correctly because the bus was blocking the mechanism.

    The crash has pulled back the curtain on long-known safety hazards at the Asoke-Din Daeng crossing, a high-traffic chokepoint that connects to one of Bangkok’s busiest downtown intersections. Structural engineers familiar with the site warn the crossing has operated well above its safe capacity for years: Dr. Amorn Phimarnmas, president of the Structural Engineers Association of Thailand, estimates that more than 100,000 road vehicles pass through the crossing every single day, far exceeding the safety threshold for an at-grade, manually operated railway crossing.

    Decades of unplanned urban growth have exacerbated the risks, experts note. The railway tracks were laid decades before the surrounding road network and dense commercial and residential development sprung up around them, creating a persistent conflict between rail and road traffic that has become normalized over time. Local commuters regularly skirt safety rules: motorcyclists frequently weave around partially lowered barriers to cut through crossing, beating congested traffic but creating constant risks of collision with oncoming trains. This routine exposure to risk has led to what Dr. Amorn calls “risk normalization” — a dangerous dynamic where commuters, operators and regulators accept daily unsafe conditions as the status quo, until a disaster strikes.

    In response to the crash, Thailand’s top rail transport regulator has announced immediate new safety rules to prevent similar tragedies. Pichet Kunadhamraks, director-general of Thailand’s Department of Rail Transport, ordered mandatory pre-shift drug and alcohol testing for all train operators and railway staff across the country, a sweeping change meant to rule out impairment on the job. Authorities have also launched a full review of all at-grade railway crossings across Thailand to identify high-risk sites that need upgraded safety infrastructure or full grade separation to eliminate conflicts between road and rail traffic.

  • The Flying Kiwis: No longer flightless, spreading football fandom at the World Cup

    The Flying Kiwis: No longer flightless, spreading football fandom at the World Cup

    WELLINGTON, New Zealand – When the New Zealand men’s national soccer team steps onto the field at the upcoming FIFA World Cup, one small, passionate contingent will stand out among the crowds, ready to cheer their side on with unapologetic, signature Kiwi spirit. Known as the Flying Kiwis, this ragtag, globally dispersed group of supporters has turned a lifelong love for the underdog national side into a movement that transcends sports, built on grassroots camaraderie and a deliberate, playful irony: the kiwi, the flightless native bird that gives all New Zealanders their nickname, can’t actually fly.

    The story of the Flying Kiwis begins back in 2009, during a do-or-die World Cup qualifying series against Bahrain for a spot in the 2010 South Africa tournament. After the first away leg finished in a goalless draw, New Zealand needed a victory on home soil to secure their place at the World Cup. It was in this high-stakes moment that Matt Fejos, then a university student who describes himself as not being a die-hard football fan at the time, decided to create something special for the side.

    Charging an entire block of tickets to his $1,000-limit credit card, Fejos gathered 32 of his friends, sourced custom banners, printed branded coveralls emblazoned with the new name “Flying Kiwis,” and packed out a section of the stadium waving New Zealand flags. That match, which ultimately secured New Zealand’s World Cup spot, became a foundational moment for football fandom in the country, Fejos says, and a memory that sticks with everyone who was there that day.

    From that small, spontaneous beginning, the group has grown far beyond that original group of university friends. As the original members scattered across the globe for work and life, they drew new supporters into the Flying Kiwis fold, building a network of fans that follows the All Whites – as the New Zealand men’s team is known – to matches both at home and in every corner of the world. For Fejos, who spent a decade living in the United Kingdom, a 2017 Confederations Cup trip to Russia drove home the deeper meaning of the group beyond matchday support. There, local Russian fans organized a friendly match between traveling Flying Kiwis and local supporters, an experience that showed Fejos how the group acts as informal ambassadors for their small island nation.

    “You’re doing it for your team, but actually in far away places you might be the first New Zealanders they’ve ever met, so you’re kind of representing your country,” Fejos explained. “To connect with the world through the global language of football is a beautiful thing and a beautiful way to travel.”

    Unlike large football-mad nations where generations of soccer fandom are woven into national culture, New Zealand’s biggest sporting spotlight has long been dominated by rugby. With no long-established homegrown traditions of organized soccer support to follow, Fejos and the Flying Kiwis set out to build their own brand of fandom. While their section is almost always far smaller than the opposing side’s packed fan bases, Fejos says that small size comes with an unexpected strength: unmatched unity.

    Heading into the World Cup, New Zealand enters as a clear underdog: ranked 85th globally, drawn into Group G alongside higher-ranked sides Belgium (9th), Iran (21st), and Egypt (29th). The All Whites will need every bit of support they can get, but Fejos says this current squad is far more prepared for the pressure than any previous New Zealand side. Today, a majority of the national team’s players compete in top European and global leagues, cutting their teeth in packed, high-pressure stadiums week in and week out.

    “There’s so much more belief among the New Zealand team because of where the players are playing,” Fejos said. “There’s so many more playing at a top, top standard and in these difficult environments, these really charged atmospheres with crazy passionate fans. So they’re used to playing under that pressure as well.”

    For the Flying Kiwis, their name and mascot carries a powerful metaphor that goes far beyond a playful joke about a flightless bird. Unlike ferocious national mascots such as eagles or lions that frame teams as dominant forces, the unassuming kiwi has become a symbol of defying the odds for the New Zealand side. Given the country’s geographic isolation, its young professional soccer ecosystem, and the lack of elite youth development academies compared to larger soccer nations, just qualifying for the World Cup is a historic achievement.

    “Sometimes it can seem a bit funny or deprecating but it’s a thing that means a lot,” Fejos said. “Despite that, I think it’s incredible for some of those New Zealand players to play in some of the best leagues of the world and to take it to the world at a World Cup. The metaphor means a lot, defying expectations overseas.”

    With most of the world writing the All Whites off before the tournament even begins, that underdog status is exactly what fuels the team and their fans. “People think of us as a rugby country, and probably as hobbits, but that allows us to go in with that underdog mentality, fearless,” Fejos said. “We want to stamp our mark and show them something different.”