标签: Asia

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  • What to know about Xi’s warning to Trump over the ‘Taiwan Question’

    What to know about Xi’s warning to Trump over the ‘Taiwan Question’

    In a high-stakes diplomatic summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump, Beijing has delivered its starkest warning to Washington in recent years over the long-running Taiwan dispute, emphasizing that mishandling the issue could trigger direct confrontation between the two global powers.

    According to an official readout released by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Xi framed the Taiwan question as the single most sensitive and consequential issue shaping the future of bilateral relations between Beijing and Washington. Striking an uncompromising tone, Xi stated that Taiwan independence and cross-Strait peace are fundamentally incompatible, incompatible as fire and water. He added that a constructive approach to the issue would pave the way for overall stability in U.S.-China ties, while mismanagement would lead to open clashes and even full conflict that would put the entire bilateral relationship in catastrophic jeopardy.

    The historically separate governance of China and Taiwan dates back to the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, when defeated Nationalist Party forces retreated to the island after the Communist Party claimed victory on the mainland. Over the following decades, Taiwan transitioned from decades of martial law to a fully functional multi-party democracy, a status that Beijing has never recognized. China continues to claim the self-governing island of 23 million people as an integral part of its territory, reserving the right to retake it by force if necessary. Cross-Strait relations have deteriorated sharply since 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party was elected president of Taiwan. Beijing responded by cutting off all official bilateral dialogue with Taipei, and in recent years has ramped up military pressure, deploying warships and fighter jets to air and sea spaces close to the island on an almost daily basis. Beyond military coercion, Beijing has also successfully poached a number of Taiwan’s remaining formal diplomatic allies, steadily isolating the island on the global stage.

    The U.S. maintains no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan but is the island’s largest and most critical unofficial ally, bound by domestic law to ensure Taiwan has the capability to defend itself against potential aggression. For decades, Washington has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity”, refusing to explicitly confirm whether it would intervene militarily if China launched an attack on the island. Following Xi’s comments, then-U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed that long-standing U.S. policy on Taiwan remained unchanged, while warning that a military seizure of Taiwan by force would be a catastrophic mistake for Beijing.

    Beyond its geopolitical significance, Taiwan holds a critical position in the global tech supply chain: it is the world’s leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors, AI servers, and high-precision instruments, and the global AI boom of recent years has pushed the island’s top technology firms to record-breaking revenue and profit levels.

    Regional analysts note that Xi’s unusually stern rhetoric reflects growing anxiety in Beijing over shifting U.S. policy and deepening ties between Washington and Taipei. In December preceding the summit, the Trump administration announced an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan — the largest ever offered to the island — and Trump has repeatedly pressured Taipei to increase its own defense spending.

    William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, explained that Beijing’s forceful readout of the summit carries a clear signal. “If China had secured any meaningful concession on Taiwan from Trump, it would have been reflected in Beijing’s official statement. The absence of any such mention and the relatively stern tone suggest Trump may not have budged on Taiwan in principle,” Yang said.

    Ma Chun-wei, a scholar of cross-Strait relations at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, added that Beijing is also concerned that the Trump administration has begun to deviate from long-standing standardized diplomatic language on the Taiwan issue. While the U.S. has for decades acknowledged Beijing’s position on Taiwan while maintaining unofficial ties with the island, the Trump administration’s December national security strategy only reaffirmed a commitment to opposing any unilateral change to the status quo, a framing that experts say leaves room for interpretation that worries Beijing.

    For Xi, Ma noted, taking a hard line on the Taiwan issue is also a matter of domestic political credibility: “For Xi Jinping, he must show that the Taiwan issue is in China’s hands. He must demonstrate this image, or else he would be criticized,” Ma explained.

    The report was filed from Bangkok by AP correspondents, with additional contributions from Simina Mistreanu in Bangkok and Michelle L. Price in Washington.

  • Full list of Israel’s ceasefire violations in Gaza, seven months on

    Full list of Israel’s ceasefire violations in Gaza, seven months on

    Seven months have passed since the United States announced a mediated ceasefire designed to end Israel’s two-year military campaign in Gaza, but the fragile truce has failed to deliver on its stated goals, with consistent Israeli violations and a still-unresolved humanitarian disaster continuing to unfold across the Palestinian enclave. While the intensity of Israeli operations has dropped from the pre-truce level, near-daily military strikes and breaches of the agreement have become the new normal, and Israel’s crippling land, air and sea blockade remains firmly in place, leaving Gaza’s civilian population trapped in a worsening crisis.

    Israeli military officials have repeatedly attempted to justify their violations by claiming Palestinian armed factions have broken the terms of the ceasefire. However, verified data from Palestinian and international bodies confirms that the overwhelming majority of people killed, displaced and detained during this seven-month period have been unarmed civilians, including hundreds of children.

    A core stumbling block remains the failure to implement even the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, and Washington has been unable to push forward negotiations for the planned second stage. That phase was originally intended to deliver tangible progress: the disarmament of Palestinian armed groups, deployment of international peacekeeping stabilisation forces, large-scale reconstruction of war-damaged infrastructure across Gaza, and a full withdrawal of all Israeli military forces from the enclave. This stalled progress has cast deep uncertainty over the future of the already fragile truce, as Israel continues to amass additional military units along Gaza’s borders and issues repeated threats of a large-scale new ground offensive.

    According to official documentation released by the Gaza government media office, Israeli forces committed no fewer than 2,400 verified ceasefire violations between 10 October 2025 and 10 April 2026, with dozens of additional breaches recorded in the weeks since that six-month window. These violations break down into more than 1,100 air strikes and artillery shelling attacks, alongside 921 incidents of direct gunfire targeting civilian populations.

    Official figures from the Palestinian Ministry of Health show that as of 14 May 2026, these ongoing attacks had killed at least 857 Palestinians and injured another 2,486 people. Of those killed, UNICEF confirms that at least 229 were children. The Gaza government media office also adds that Israeli forces have arbitrarily detained at least 50 Palestinians within Gaza during the ceasefire period.

    Documented violations span a wide range of targets: attacks on civilian community gatherings, strikes on internally displaced person camps, targeted killings of Palestinian police officers, journalists and international aid workers, and repeated incursions into civilian areas. Israeli naval units have also consistently opened fire on Palestinian fishermen and civilian communities along Gaza’s coastline, arresting multiple fishermen. In one high-profile incident last month, Israeli gunboats shot and killed an unarmed Palestinian woman off the northwestern coast of Gaza.

    Overall, the confirmed death toll from Israel’s military campaign, which began in October 2023, has now reached more than 72,700 Palestinians killed, with thousands more still missing and presumed dead beneath the rubble of destroyed residential and public buildings across the enclave.

    The initial October 2025 ceasefire agreement included a core provision that all existing battle lines would remain frozen in place until subsequent phases of the agreement could be negotiated and implemented. This arrangement led to the creation of what Israel calls the “Yellow Line”, a unilateral Israeli demarcation that declared vast swathes of Gaza territory as off-limits to Palestinian civilians, barring them from returning to or accessing their own land. When the ceasefire was first signed, Israeli forces already controlled approximately 53 percent of Gaza’s total territory, spread across the enclave’s northern, southern and eastern regions. The agreement stipulated that future phases would include a gradual full withdrawal of Israeli forces from all of Gaza.

    Instead of withdrawing, however, the Israeli military has expanded the area behind the Yellow Line, bringing roughly 64 percent of Gaza’s total territory under direct Israeli military control and forcing the enclave’s 2 million-plus civilian population into just 36 percent of their own land. Israeli forces have also carried out near-daily home demolitions across the enclave, another clear violation of the ceasefire terms. While most demolitions have occurred in areas Israel now claims beyond the Yellow Line, multiple demolitions have also been recorded in areas officially designated as under Palestinian control. An analysis published by The New York Times in January 2026 found that Israel had demolished more than 2,500 residential and public buildings in just the first three months of the ceasefire.

    One of the most high-profile commitments Israel made under the ceasefire agreement was to ease its restrictions on humanitarian aid deliveries, and allow up to 600 trucks of food, fuel, medical supplies, emergency shelter materials and commercial goods to enter Gaza every single day. To date, these commitments have never been met, according to official United Nations data. Human rights organisations have repeatedly warned that ongoing Israeli restrictions on aid have prolonged the humanitarian catastrophe and severely limited the ability of relief groups to deliver life-saving support to Gaza’s population.

    By the end of April 2026, the Gaza government media office confirms that just over 4,500 aid trucks had entered the enclave – that is only 25 percent of the 18,000 trucks that were stipulated under the terms of the agreement. That works out to an average of just over 200 trucks per day, less than a third of the agreed 600-truck daily threshold. Even the limited aid that has been allowed in has excluded many of the most urgently needed supplies, including emergency shelter materials like tents and prefabricated mobile homes, as well as essential life-saving medications, medical equipment and fuel for civilian infrastructure and emergency services.

    These ongoing restrictions have triggered a new wave of severe food insecurity in recent months, with many Gaza residents now fearing a return to the full-scale famine conditions that the United Nations officially declared in parts of Gaza in August 2025, during the height of Israel’s siege. Doctors from Gaza’s Ministry of Health and civil defence rescue teams have repeatedly stated that shortages of fuel and medical supplies have left them unable to provide even basic adequate healthcare to injured and sick civilians, or carry out effective rescue operations for people trapped under rubble after Israeli strikes.

    Another key commitment under the ceasefire agreement was that Israeli forces would withdraw from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt in southern Gaza, and allow unimpeded free movement of people through the crossing. With thousands of Palestinians suffering from severe war injuries requiring urgent specialist treatment that is not available inside Gaza, full reopening of the Rafah crossing was widely seen as a critical measure to reduce civilian suffering. Instead, Israel kept the Rafah crossing fully closed for nearly four months after the ceasefire agreement was signed.

    In February 2026, Israel began allowing a maximum of 50 Palestinians a day to enter Gaza from Egypt, while limiting the number of people allowed to depart Gaza for treatment or other purposes to roughly 150 people per day. Even these greatly reduced quotas have not been consistently respected, with Israel repeatedly blocking movement for travellers who had already received official approval, and shutting the crossing down for extended periods. One of the longest shutdowns came in late February, during Israel’s military strike campaign against Iran.

    Official data from the Gaza government media office shows that between 2 February and 30 April 2026, only 1,567 people crossed through Rafah, out of the 6,000 people that the agreement allowed to cross during this period. That puts Israeli compliance with the Rafah crossing terms at just 26 percent. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, these movement restrictions have contributed to the deaths of up to 10 Palestinian civilians every single day, who die before they can access the urgent medical treatment they need abroad.

  • Flattery and fanfare as Trump welcomed to China – but thorny issues remain

    Flattery and fanfare as Trump welcomed to China – but thorny issues remain

    Nine years after his last trip to China during his first presidential term, former and returning U.S. President Donald Trump touched down in Beijing for a landmark summit that could redefine the trajectory of relations between the world’s two most powerful rival nations. Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out a meticulously orchestrated, grand ceremonial welcome for Trump outside the Great Hall of the People, complete with a military honor guard, 21-gun salute, and a military band playing the U.S. national anthem. As Trump walked the receiving line, he twice paused to greet crowds of waving schoolchildren holding both Chinese and American flags, before sharing a warm, informal greeting with Xi, patting Xi’s arm in a gesture of goodwill that drew attention from observers.

    In unscripted remarks after their initial handshake, Trump offered effusive praise for his host, telling Xi, “You’re a great leader. I say it to everybody.” During a later cultural tour of the 600-year-old Temple of Heaven, he commented to reporters that China is a beautiful country, and opened his remarks at that evening’s state banquet by calling the high-level talks a “cherished” opportunity to connect. This warm reception marks a striking departure from Trump’s long-held rhetorical posture toward China, which he built his 2016 political brand around by taking a hardline stance. During his first campaign, he infamously claimed China was “raping” the United States economically; in 2020, he doubled down, saying China had “ripped off the United States like no one has ever done before” and labeled the COVID-19 pandemic the “Chinese virus”. Ahead of his return to office, he pledged to force China to “pay” for what he framed as unfair trade practices.

    At the peak of the U.S.-China trade war in the preceding year, the two powers imposed reciprocal tariffs totaling over 100% on each other’s goods. A fragile truce followed the escalation, and this summit was framed around three core unanswered questions: whether the truce will hold, what long-term trade deal will replace it, whether Beijing can help broker a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing Iran crisis that has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and how the two powers will navigate the long-simmering tensions over Taiwan – the self-governing island that China claims as its sovereign territory, and which the U.S. maintains unofficial diplomatic and defense ties with.

    Beijing’s elaborate welcome was not just a gesture of hospitality to Trump and the 30 top American CEOs accompanying him on the trip; it was a deliberate display of geopolitical strength broadcast to audiences across the United States and the entire globe. Almost immediately after talks got underway, Chinese state media released comments from Xi that made clear Taiwan remains a major flashpoint that could derail progress between the two sides. When reporters pressed both leaders on whether they had discussed Taiwan during their Temple of Heaven visit, neither leader responded to the question.

    John Delury, senior fellow at the Asia Society’s Center on US-China Relations, framed the summit as a visible marker of shifting global power dynamics. “We are witnessing a historical change,” Delury explained. “I hesitate to put too much on this specific summit, but the inexorable rise of China to a place where it is legitimately rivaling the U.S. – that is now happening before our eyes. Beijing is now the second world capital.”

    Xi has positioned himself as a steady, predictable global leader in contrast to what many global observers frame as Trump’s mercurial policy style. In the years since Trump’s first term, China has expanded its global trade reach dramatically, pre-emptively building new economic partnerships to offset the risk of renewed U.S. tariffs. Over the past year, China demonstrated its economic leverage during the trade war: it matched Trump’s tariffs tit-for-tat, and restricted exports of rare earth minerals – critical inputs for advanced global manufacturing – forcing Washington to return to negotiations and agree to lower tariff rates.

    Today, China controls 30% of global manufacturing output, processes over 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, and produces between 60% and 80% of global supplies of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. Xi has indicated he believes this summit has already made clear to the U.S. and the world just how deeply dependent global economies are on Chinese manufacturing and technology. While ongoing international concerns over China’s human rights record and its close diplomatic ties to Russia and North Korea persist, those issues have been pushed to the background amid Trump’s broader reshaping of the global world order. Many global analysts now see the trajectory of global power shifting in China’s favor.

    China enters these talks with a clear upper hand, as Trump faces domestic political headwinds of his own, including sinking approval ratings, and international pressure over the ongoing Iran crisis that has shut down the Strait of Hormuz – a critical global energy shipping lane whose closure has sent shockwaves through the global economy. Trump has publicly said he is counting on Beijing’s help to reopen the corridor. As Iran’s largest trading partner with decades of close diplomatic ties to Tehran, Beijing holds significant influence over the Iranian government. If Xi can help push Tehran toward negotiations to de-escalate the crisis, that would give China even greater leverage in talks with the U.S.

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the U.S. position ahead of the trip, telling Fox News, “It’s in their interest to resolve this. And we hope to convince them to play a more active role.” But analysts widely agree China will demand major concessions in exchange for cooperation on Iran. According to Chinese state media, Xi has already made clear to Trump during closed-door talks that the Taiwan issue has the potential to spark direct conflict between the two powers. Analysts expect Xi will pressure the U.S. to delay or halt arms sales to Taiwan – a requirement that would put Washington in a difficult position, as it is legally bound to provide the island with defensive military capabilities. Officials in Taipei are closely watching the summit’s outcome with significant anxiety.

    This visit differs from Trump’s first trip to China in key ways: unlike his first visit, when former First Lady Melania Trump accompanied him, this trip centers heavily on the high-powered U.S. business delegation, which includes some of the biggest names in American tech and industry: Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, all of whom attended the opening state banquet.

    Trump has centered his trade demands around pushing China to further open its domestic markets to increased access for U.S. companies. As of the end of the first day of talks, few concrete details of any potential deal have been released to the public. A preliminary White House statement only confirmed that the two sides “discussed ways to enhance economic cooperation”, including expanding U.S. firms’ access to the Chinese market and facilitating Chinese investment in U.S. domestic industries. On the Iran issue, the statement added that “both countries agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and “the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy”.

    Additional talks between the two leaders are scheduled for the following day, which are expected to yield more concrete details on potential agreements. For Trump, a tangible diplomatic win from the summit is critical to boost his sinking domestic approval ratings back home. Xi, for his part, has signaled China is open to expanding cooperation in trade and agriculture, a move widely interpreted as a signal Beijing is prepared to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans, beef, and Boeing commercial aircraft.

    The two leaders have agreed to a new framing of the bilateral relationship as “constructive, strategic and stable”, a positioning that will guide U.S.-China ties for the next three years. At the same time, China is grappling with its own serious domestic economic challenges, including rising youth unemployment, uneven post-pandemic growth, a persistent real estate sector crisis, and record high levels of local government debt. While Beijing seeks a global order less centered on U.S. hegemony, it still has a critical strategic interest in maintaining stable, functional relations with Washington.

    At the close of the opening day’s state banquet, after remarking that he had received a “magnificent welcome like no other” in Beijing, Trump formally invited Xi to visit Washington D.C. for a return summit in September. Xi struck a unifying tone in response, saying that the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America great again” can progress hand in hand. He closed his remarks with a toast to the future of both nations, ending the evening with a single word: “Cheers.”

  • US federal judge blocks US sanctions against UN’s Francesca Albanese

    US federal judge blocks US sanctions against UN’s Francesca Albanese

    In a landmark ruling that upholds core free speech principles, a US federal judge issued a temporary preliminary injunction on Wednesday halting the Trump administration’s sanctions against Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Palestine, finding the punitive measures likely violated her constitutional right to free expression.

    Albanese was targeted with US sanctions in July 2025, just weeks after she published a sweeping, critical report on June 30 that condemned Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. In that document, she identified over 60 major global firms — including tech giants Google, Amazon, and Microsoft — alleging the companies were complicit in shifting Israel’s occupation-based economy into what she framed as an economy of genocide. The report called on the International Criminal Court (ICC), national judicial bodies worldwide to launch investigations and prosecute implicated corporate leaders and companies, and urged UN member states to impose targeted sanctions and asset freezes on the entities named.

    The sanctions imposed on Albanese carried severe practical consequences: she was barred from entering the United States, and was shut out of the US banking system, cutting off access to basic financial services. The legal challenge to the sanctions was brought by Albanese’s husband Massimiliano Cali, a senior World Bank economist based in Tunisia, who filed the civil suit on behalf of himself, Albanese, and the couple’s US citizen daughter. The complaint argued that the Trump administration had unlawfully seized Albanese’s accessible assets without adhering to due process, violated existing US sanctions legislation, and effectively de-banked her, leaving her unable to meet routine daily needs.

    In his opinion accompanying the injunction order, US District Judge Richard Leon emphasized that safeguarding free speech is always aligned with the public interest. The judge further ruled that Albanese’s status as a non-US resident does not strip her of protections under the First Amendment to the US Constitution, noting that the administration targeted her specifically because of the content and message of her public criticism.

    Albanese celebrated the court’s decision in a public post on X, writing, “BREAKING! US court has suspended the US sanctions against me! As the judge says: ‘Protecting the Freedom of speech is always just the public interest’. Thanks to my daughter and my husband for stepping up to defend me, and everyone who has helped so far. Together we are One.”

    The ruling comes amid growing international solidarity with Albanese. Earlier that month, on May 7, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez awarded the UN expert the Order of Civil Merit in a clear show of support. A day before that honor, Sanchez formally asked the European Commission to activate the EU’s Blocking Statute, a regulation designed to protect EU individuals and institutions from extraterritorial US sanctions, to shield both the ICC and the United Nations from US punitive measures.

  • Malaysia slams Norway for revoking export license for a naval missile system

    Malaysia slams Norway for revoking export license for a naval missile system

    In a sharp rebuke that has highlighted growing friction over international defense contracts, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has publicly condemned Norway’s decision to revoke an export license for a key naval missile system earmarked for the Royal Malaysian Navy, warning the unilateral move risks eroding long-term trust in European defense contractors. The dispute centers on the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) system and related launcher components, which were contracted to equip Malaysia’s upcoming fleet of littoral combat ships as a core part of the Southeast Asian nation’s ongoing military modernization drive.

    Speaking Thursday, Anwar confirmed he conveyed Malaysia’s “vehement objection” to the cancellation directly during a phone conversation with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. In an official statement released after the call, the Malaysian leader emphasized that Kuala Lumpur has met every contractual obligation for the deal, which was first signed in 2018, with unwavering consistency and good faith. “Malaysia has honored every obligation under this contract since 2018: scrupulously, faithfully and without equivocation,” Anwar said. “Norway, it appears, has not felt compelled to extend us the same courtesy and demonstration of good faith.”

    Per Malaysia’s national news agency Bernama, Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace AS, the Norwegian manufacturer of the NSM anti-ship missile system, has distanced itself from the policy move, stating that all export licensing decisions fall exclusively under the jurisdiction of the Norwegian government. As of Thursday, Oslo has not issued any public statement addressing the license revocation or Anwar’s criticisms.

    Malaysian Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin revealed to local media outlets that the Malaysian government had already completed payments for nearly 95% of the total contract value before Norwegian authorities blocked the shipment in March. Without the NSM systems, Malaysia’s littoral combat ship modernization program faces significant delays, which Anwar says will undermine the navy’s operational readiness and carry unforeseen consequences for the regional military balance.

    The Malaysian prime minister stressed that signed international defense contracts are binding, formal agreements, not disposable arrangements to be changed at random. “Signed contracts are solemn instruments. They are not confetti to be scattered in so capricious a manner,” Anwar said. “If European defense suppliers reserve the right to renege with impunity, their value as strategic partners flies out the window.”

    In response to the cancellation, Khaled confirmed that Malaysian officials are currently reviewing all available legal pathways, including potential claims for financial compensation from the Norwegian side, to resolve the breach of contract.

  • Don’t use GDP to judge China’s strength – look at this instead

    Don’t use GDP to judge China’s strength – look at this instead

    As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to touch down in Beijing on May 14 for a high-stakes bilateral summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese officials are ready to lead with one key economic figure to showcase the country’s perceived resilience: an official 5% GDP growth target and performance figure for 2025. But while the 5% target is a stated policy goal, analysts argue that a far more telling indicator of China’s actual economic health lies in an unpublicized metric that reveals deep structural inefficiencies: the Incremental Capital Output Ratio, or ICOR.

    ICOR measures how much new investment is required to generate one additional unit of economic output. In a healthy, efficient economy, this ratio remains low, as capital flows to productive, high-return projects. When capital is misallocated — flowing into unneeded infrastructure, unprofitable projects, and overcapacity that cannot be absorbed by domestic demand — the ratio climbs, and in China, it has been rising sharply for decades.

    Calculated as gross capital formation as a share of GDP divided by real GDP growth, ICOR is not an official Chinese data point, but it can be derived from public data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. During China’s high-growth era between 2000 and 2007, ICOR held steady at around 3.9, meaning 3.9 percentage points of GDP in investment was required to generate 1 percentage point of GDP growth. For comparison, during their own rapid growth periods, South Korea and Taiwan posted far lower ICORs of 3.2 and 2.7 respectively, indicating that even at its economic peak, China’s investment efficiency lagged behind its regional peers.

    China’s investment productivity began a steady decline after the 2008 global financial crisis, when Beijing rolled out a massive large-scale stimulus package to offset falling export demand. Between 2008 and 2019, China’s ICOR climbed from roughly 4.5 to 7.2, nearly doubling the pre-crisis baseline. Economists attribute this shift to the exhaustion of China’s easy growth drivers: the most productive coastal manufacturing expansion, cross-regional infrastructure buildout, and rural-to-urban labor migration had largely run their course by the 2010s, leaving less high-return opportunities for new investment.

    The upward trajectory of ICOR has only accelerated since 2020. Using China’s official GDP figures, the country’s current annual ICOR stands at approximately 8.5, with a five-year rolling average approaching 9. When adjusted using more conservative, independent growth estimates from the Rhodium Group, a U.S.-based independent research firm that pegs China’s 2025 actual growth between 2.5% and 3%, the implied ICOR jumps to between 14 and 17. Even the most favorable interpretation of official Chinese data confirms a clear trend: the Chinese economy is rapidly losing investment efficiency, fueled by a flood of subsidized credit directed to politically prioritized projects rather than commercially viable opportunities.

    Beijing has built a reputation for consistently hitting its pre-set GDP growth targets, so much so that even senior Chinese officials have publicly questioned the legitimacy of the official numbers. Rather than treating GDP as a natural economic output, Chinese authorities treat the target as a non-negotiable policy goal, achieved through directed credit allocation to state-linked entities. State-owned enterprises, local government financing vehicles, and politically connected real estate developers access below-market-rate borrowing that does not reflect underlying project risk, and pour capital into ventures that would fail basic commercial return tests. The end result is a growing pile of excess production and unused capacity that Chinese consumers do not want, created solely to hit arbitrary growth metrics.

    Unable to absorb this surplus domestically, Beijing redirects it to global markets, selling goods below production cost and effectively exporting the losses from its domestic capital misallocation to trading partners around the world. This dynamic has major implications for the agenda of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, challenging the conventional narrative that frames U.S.-China economic relations as a competition between a declining U.S. and a dynamically rising China.

    Over the past two decades, the U.S. has maintained a relatively stable ICOR, reflecting an economy where investment and output grow in rough, sustainable proportion. By contrast, China’s economy now requires exponentially more investment to generate every additional yuan of GDP, a structural weakness that undermines claims of inherent Chinese economic strength. China is now structurally dependent on continuous credit expansion and steady export revenues to service its growing debt load and maintain domestic political stability. This means that U.S. trade policy tools such as targeted tariffs can apply direct pressure to the core mechanisms Beijing relies on to manage domestic order, particularly the export revenues that keep its debt system functioning.

    That does not mean unilateral U.S. trade action is the most effective strategy, the analysis argues. Instead of walling the U.S. off from global trade alone, Washington should pursue coordinated action with like-minded allies to address the root of the problem: Beijing’s subsidized overcapacity model. Every major global economy is already coping with a flood of underpriced Chinese exported surplus, so a coordinated multilateral framework that targets subsidized overproduction at its source will create far more sustainable leverage than unilateral tariffs, which risk isolating the U.S. from the global partners it needs to enact meaningful change.

    None of this data suggests China is on the brink of imminent economic collapse. China’s governing system has already demonstrated a striking ability to manage gradual deterioration: rolling over bad debt, extending repayment timelines, and pushing underlying imbalances into the future rather than addressing them. But managed gradual decline is not the same as economic strength, and Beijing has so far shown no willingness to tackle the core structural imbalances driving falling investment efficiency on its own. While Beijing will continue to tout its 5% official growth figure as proof of economic resilience ahead of the summit, the real metric to watch is the one Chinese officials will not discuss: the rising hidden cost of generating every unit of that growth. This analysis comes from Daniel Swift, a senior research analyst for economics, finance and trade at the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and a retired U.S. diplomat.

  • Philippine senator wanted by the International Criminal Court flees from Senate

    Philippine senator wanted by the International Criminal Court flees from Senate

    MANILA, Philippines — A high-stakes political crisis has gripped the Philippines this week, after a sitting Philippine senator facing International Criminal Court (ICC) charges of crimes against humanity slipped out of the heavily guarded Senate compound amid chaotic gunfire between security personnel and government law enforcement agents, senior government officials confirmed Thursday.

    Ronald dela Rosa, 64, a former national police chief under ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, had taken shelter inside the Senate compound Wednesday to avoid execution of an ICC arrest warrant unsealed just days earlier. The chaos that cleared his escape path began Wednesday night, when Senate security personnel opened multiple volleys of gunfire during a heated confrontation with a National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) agent assigned to serve the warrant. In the confusion that followed the shootout, dela Rosa managed to slip past security and leave the compound undetected.

    Shortly after the incident, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. addressed the nation in a late-night televised broadcast, urging the public to avoid panic and stressing that authorities would conduct a full, transparent investigation into the escape. Law enforcement sources confirmed that one line of active inquiry centers on suspicions the gunfight was deliberately orchestrated to create a diversion and cover for dela Rosa’s exit.

    In a public press briefing Thursday, Senate President Alan Cayetano — a close political ally of the Duterte family — pushed back against claims of foul play, insisting “there is no obstruction of justice” in the incident. Cayetano argued that because no ICC arrest warrant had been officially presented to the Senate leadership, dela Rosa was under no legal obligation to remain on the premises and was free to leave at his own discretion. Political critics have rejected this explanation, however, and are calling for Cayetano and the Senate’s top security official to be held legally and politically accountable for facilitating the fugitive senator’s escape.

    Dela Rosa’s legal troubles are directly tied to the deadly national anti-drug crackdown launched by Duterte when he held the presidency from 2016 to 2022. Duterte himself was taken into ICC custody last March to face trial in The Hague on separate charges of crimes against humanity stemming from the same campaign. The unsealed ICC warrant against dela Rosa, made public Monday, accuses him of direct responsibility for the crime against humanity of murder, linked to the killings of no fewer than 32 people between July 2016 and April 2018 — the period when dela Rosa led the Philippine National Police and oversaw implementation of Duterte’s anti-drug initiative.

    Both Duterte and dela Rosa have repeatedly denied authorizing extrajudicial killings, though Duterte openly publicly threatened drug suspects with death throughout his time in office.

    The escape comes amid escalating open political conflict between the Duterte political bloc and the Marcos administration, a rift that lays bare deep enduring divisions within Philippine politics. The tension has escalated rapidly in recent days: Vice President Sara Duterte, Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter and current second-in-command of the country, has openly accused Marcos of orchestrating the “kidnapping” of her father and his illegal transfer to the international court. On Monday, the Marcos-allied majority in the House of Representatives voted to impeach Sara Duterte over allegations of unexplained illicit wealth, misuse of public funds, and a public threat to assassinate President Marcos, his wife, and the House speaker if she were killed amid the deepening political feud. Sara Duterte has denied all wrongdoing, but has declined to respond to the specific allegations against her in detail. Cayetano announced Thursday that the Senate will convene as an impeachment trial court as early as next Monday to begin preparations for the vice president’s trial.

    The current Senate leadership shakeup that set this chain of events in motion also ties directly to the dela Rosa case. Just this Monday, Cayetano reclaimed the Senate presidency after securing the support of 13 out of the body’s 24 senators. His razor-thin majority was secured after dela Rosa — who had been absent from Senate proceedings for months over fears of imminent arrest — made a surprise appearance at Monday’s leadership vote, arriving at the compound in Cayetano’s own vehicle. After the vote concluded, NBI agents moved to serve the ICC arrest warrant on the senator, who immediately fled to the Senate plenary hall and was taken into protective custody by his allied senators before the Wednesday night escape.

  • Dust storms and lightning kill at least 96 people in northern India

    Dust storms and lightning kill at least 96 people in northern India

    Deadly extreme weather has left northern India reeling, with official confirmation Thursday placing the death toll from a wave of dust storms, heavy rainfall and lightning at no less than 96, with dozens more injured. The destructive weather system swept across multiple districts of Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state by population, late Wednesday, leaving a trail of destroyed property and disrupted communities in its wake.

    According to local officials, most fatalities stemmed from falling trees, collapsing poorly built structures, and direct lightning strikes, common hazards during pre-monsoon storm events. Emergency response teams including police and disaster management units quickly mobilized, deploying chainsaws and heavy cranes to clear fallen vegetation that blocked critical road and railway links across hard-hit districts.

    Pre-monsoon storms are a routine seasonal occurrence across northern India between March and June, when hot summer temperatures give way to the annual south Asian monsoon rains that replenish the region’s water supplies. But this latest event brought unusually intense and destructive conditions that have caused widespread harm.
    Narendra N. Srivastava, a senior local administrative official, noted that emergency crews have already been deployed across all impacted areas. Damage assessments confirm widespread destruction to residential buildings, agricultural crops, and electrical power infrastructure, with rural communities bearing the brunt of the impact.

    Residents of the hardest-hit districts described sudden, terrifying onslaughts of extreme wind that upended daily life in minutes. In Prayagraj district, local resident Ram Kishore recalled the rapid onset of the storm, saying that within just a few minutes of the storm’s arrival, the entire sky turned pitch black. Flying tin roofing sent residents scrambling for shelter indoors, he added, with the sound of falling trees echoing through neighborhoods throughout the evening.

    In neighboring Bhadohi district, another local resident, Savitri Devi, shared her family’s narrow escape after their mud-built home was severely damaged by strong winds. Devi said the family fled outside immediately when their home’s walls began shaking from the force of the wind; the roof collapsed just moments after they escaped. The family spent the night taking shelter at a relative’s home, left homeless by the storm.

    In response to the disaster, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has issued urgent orders for all involved agencies: complete full relief operations across affected areas within 24 hours, and expedite the distribution of financial compensation and emergency life-saving aid to all families impacted by the extreme weather.

  • Gunfire chaos as Philippine senator resists ICC arrest: What we know so far

    Gunfire chaos as Philippine senator resists ICC arrest: What we know so far

    Manila, the Philippines — A chaotic eruption of gunfire inside the Philippine Senate this week has plunged the country’s already fractured political landscape into open crisis, capping a weeks-long standoff over an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for a close ally of former president Rodrigo Duterte and exposing the deepening rift between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties.

    The crisis centers on Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, one of Duterte’s most loyal long-time associates. As chief of the Philippine National Police from 2016 to 2018, dela Rosa served as the public face of Duterte’s brutal nationwide war on drugs, a campaign that left thousands of suspected drug users and small-scale dealers dead. Human rights organizations have documented hundreds of cases of extrajudicial summary executions during the crackdown, leading the ICC to open a crimes against humanity investigation into the campaign.

    The ICC unsealed its arrest warrant for dela Rosa on Monday this week, coinciding with the senator’s first appearance on the Senate floor after months of unexplained absence from public life. The development came months after Duterte himself was taken into custody and transferred to The Hague in March 2025 to face his own ICC charges connected to the drug war. Though Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC during his presidency in 2019, the tribunal has maintained it retains jurisdiction over crimes committed before the withdrawal, including thousands of drug war deaths that dated back to Duterte’s time as mayor of Davao City.

    Within days of the warrant being made public, dela Rosa sought protective refuge within the Senate, filing a petition with the Philippine Supreme Court to block local authorities from executing the ICC’s order. On Wednesday, the high court rejected his request for an immediate temporary restraining order, giving President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s administration 72 hours to submit its official response to the petition.

    Hours after the Supreme Court’s ruling, dela Rosa took to Facebook Live to issue a public appeal, warning supporters he had received intelligence that authorities were en route to arrest him. “I am calling for your help: let us not have another Filipino brought to The Hague like President Duterte,” he told viewers. Roughly 60 minutes later, multiple gunshots rang out on the Senate’s second floor, triggering panic across the complex.

    Chaotic scenes unfolded live on national television: journalists and legislative staff scrambled for cover, the entire Senate building was placed under immediate lockdown, and heavily armed security personnel in flak jackets cordoned off the entire premises. Initial conflicting accounts emerged over the source of the gunfire: Senate Secretary Mark Llandro Mendoza told local reporters that agents from the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) had attempted to enter the building and fired shots while retreating. But NBI director denied the claim, stating no agents had been deployed to the Senate that day.

    Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla later entered the building to meet with legislative leaders, and emerged alongside newly installed Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano to confirm no injuries were reported. The pair confirmed shots had been fired but declined to name potential perpetrators, noting an official investigation was still ongoing. By the following morning, police announced they had detained at least one person in connection with the shooting. President Marcos addressed the nation in a YouTube video shortly after the incident, calling for calm and promising a full probe. “We will get to the bottom of this… Was this encounter part of destabilisation? We will need to know,” he said.

    The gunfire incident is the most visible escalation of a rapidly worsening political power struggle between the Marcos and Duterte political clans, an alliance that collapsed spectacularly after the two groups won the 2022 national election in a landslide. Just this week, the House of Representatives — where Marcos allies hold a majority — voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte, Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter and Marcos’ top political rival, over allegations of corruption and plots to assassinate the president. The articles of impeachment were formally transmitted to the Senate on the same day the shooting occurred, and the chamber will now act as an impeachment court with the power to remove Sara Duterte from office and bar her from running for president in the 2028 election.

    Dela Rosa’s surprise return to the Senate this week also upended the chamber’s power balance: his presence helped secure enough votes to install Cayetano — a former Duterte foreign minister and vice presidential running mate — as the new Senate president. The 24-member Senate is now controlled by a majority bloc composed of dela Rosa and other Duterte allies, leaving Marcos-aligned senators in the minority. The overlapping crises of the ICC arrest standoff, impeachment trial, and now the Senate shooting have brought long-simmering tensions between the two dynasties to a head, leaving the Philippines facing one of its most unstable political periods in recent history.

  • BRICS foreign ministers meet in India as Iran war, oil prices and divisions test the bloc’s unity

    BRICS foreign ministers meet in India as Iran war, oil prices and divisions test the bloc’s unity

    Two days of high-stakes diplomatic talks between BRICS foreign ministers kicked off in New Delhi on Thursday, bringing together representatives from the bloc’s 10 current member states at a moment of deepening geopolitical friction and growing global economic volatility. The summit unfolds against a backdrop of multiple overlapping crises: the ongoing conflict involving Iran has disrupted global energy supply chains, pushed international oil prices sharply higher, and created new rifts among the grouping’s recently expanded membership, while U.S. President Donald Trump holds a landmark meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing concurrently.

    Founded in 2001 and formally established as a coordination bloc in 2006, BRICS was originally built as a collective voice for major emerging economies, designed to counterbalance the influence of Western-dominated global governance bodies such as the G7. South Africa joined the original four members—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—in 2010, marking the bloc’s first expansion. A major wave of new memberships followed in 2024, when Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates joined, with Indonesia becoming the 10th full member in 2025. Over the past two decades, the bloc has positioned itself as an alternative leadership channel for the Global South, attracting widespread support from developing nations that have long criticized Western-led financial institutions for skewed representation and unfair policies.

    Attendees at this year’s summit include Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. China is being represented by Ambassador Xu Feihong, as top Chinese diplomat Foreign Minister Wang Yi remains in Beijing to support the Trump-Xi summit. India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who holds the 2025 BRICS chairmanship, opened the talks by outlining the summit’s core priorities: addressing pressing global and regional challenges, and identifying actionable pathways to deepen practical cooperation across all member states.

    In his opening address, Jaishankar emphasized that BRICS has a critical role to play in helping developing nations navigate overlapping, cascading crises, from public health vulnerabilities and inadequate development financing to skyrocketing prices for energy, food, and fertilizer. “We meet at a time of considerable flux in international relations,” Jaishankar told delegates, noting that emerging and developing economies increasingly look to BRICS to deliver a “constructive and stabilizing role” amid global uncertainty.

    Despite the bloc’s expanding global influence and growing appeal in the Global South, deep internal divisions have come to the fore ahead of this week’s talks, testing BRICS’ ability to present a unified front to the world. Longstanding regional rivalries, including the competition for influence between India and China, have created persistent frictions, while member states hold widely differing alignments with Western powers. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine already laid bare these ideological and strategic gaps, and the bloc’s 2024 expansion has added new layers of strain, as competing regional interests have made it even harder to align on collective positions.

    Now, the escalating conflict in the Middle East has pushed these divisions into the open. Both Iran and the UAE are current BRICS members, but the two nations hold sharply competing interests in the region. On Wednesday, Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that disagreements over the conflict had already blocked BRICS from agreeing to a unified statement.

    Gharibabadi told India’s Press Trust of India that one unnamed BRICS member had pushed for the bloc to release language formally condemning Iran, a move that has derailed consensus-building efforts. “We want India’s BRICS chairship to be successful. It is not a good approach to send a signal to the world that the BRICS is divided. One country is insisting on condemning Iran,” Gharibabadi said.