标签: Asia

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  • Norway: International law is worth defending, even when allies break it

    Norway: International law is worth defending, even when allies break it

    Four months into the destructive US-Israeli military campaign launched against Iran on February 28, Norway’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andreas Kravik has delivered a clear, unflinching rebuke of the operation, stressing that the international community must defend the rules-based global order even when violations are committed by closest allies. In an exclusive interview with Middle East Eye’s *Expert Witness* podcast recorded in Oslo, Kravik — a veteran public international lawyer and former head of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry’s legal affairs department — laid out Norway’s independent legal assessment that leaves no room for ambiguity: the war is unlawful under the UN Charter.

    Under well-established international law, Kravik explained, a sovereign state may only legally deploy force against another nation in three narrow scenarios: when explicitly authorized by the UN Security Council, when acting in self-defense against an imminent armed attack, or when the host state consents to the intervention. None of these conditions were met in the case of Iran, he emphasized. “In our interpretation of the law, it is not a legal operation,” Kravik stated. “We think that is a violation of the UN Charter, and we have said so in no unclear terms. There is no authorisation here from the UN Security Council… and there was no consent from Iranian authorities.”

    Kravik also balanced his assessment by acknowledging that while Iran holds an inherent right to self-defense under the UN Charter, its own response to the invasion has fallen short of international legal standards. He noted that Iran’s disproportionate counter-strikes that targeted third-party states, alongside the government’s harsh crackdown on domestic protesters amid widespread economic distress, both violate core tenets of international law. “Every state has the right to self-defense, including Iran, but that self-defence needs to be proportionate and must not target civilians,” he said.

    The core principle guiding Norway’s stance, Kravik argued, is that consistent application of international law is non-negotiable if the framework is to survive. Too many global powers invoke the law only to condemn adversaries while ignoring violations by close partners, a trend that will ultimately unravel the entire global order, he warned. “Sometimes it can be more important to criticise or take on some of your closest allies,” Kravik said. “If we move into a global community where we speak out only when our adversaries violate the law, and not where our friends do so, then the law will eventually collapse.”

    Against a growing narrative among global analysts that international law has become effectively irrelevant after a string of high-profile violations — including Israel’s actions in Gaza, the forced removal of Venezuela’s sitting president, and the war on Iran — Kravik pushed back that the reality is far more nuanced. He insisted that international law remains a critical pillar of global stability, pointing out that widespread compliance is far less visible than high-profile breaches, just as most people follow domestic law daily without drawing public attention. “I think it’s clear that international law matters. I think it’s clear that it has to matter,” he said. “Without international law, without multilateralism, which is very closely linked to international law, we’re not going to be able to preserve international stability. We also have multiple violations of national law… but we don’t say that Norwegian law has lost relevance.”

    Despite Oslo’s clear condemnation of the US-Israeli war, Kravik clarified that the designation has not hampered Norway’s work as an impartial diplomatic mediator working to end the conflict. Oslo has continued to engage both Washington and Tehran for a negotiated solution, even as it calls out unlawful actions from both sides. “Even though the law has been violated, we need to find a way forward to reinvigorate the diplomatic process,” he explained.

    As the conflict drags on and Israel expands its military operations into neighboring Lebanon, Norway has positioned itself as a quiet behind-the-scenes mediator, backing Pakistan-led diplomatic efforts to bring all warring parties back to negotiations. In line with this work, Kravik has recently completed a regional tour, holding talks with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Army Chief General Asim Munir in Islamabad, Iranian Foreign Ministry officials in Tehran, and Omani foreign policy leaders in Muscat.

    Kravik emphasized that a core priority of any negotiated settlement must be the reopening and secure management of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy shipping chokepoint that has been closed to most commercial traffic for much of the war, with the US imposing a reciprocal blockade on Iranian ports. “It’s important that the parties return to the table, that they are adamant in finding a diplomatic solution, and that that solution ensures that the Strait of Hormuz is managed in a way that comports with the basic principles enshrined in the law of the sea,” he said.

    Beyond the Iran conflict, Kravik reaffirmed Norway’s unwavering support for the International Criminal Court (ICC), and issued a sharp condemnation of US sanctions imposed on ICC judges and prosecutors for carrying out their official mandates. “The fact that some third states who aren’t party to the court have decided to sanction court officials for just doing their jobs is unconscionable,” he said. “The integrity and the mandate of the ICC has never been more important.”

    When asked about the ICC’s outstanding arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Kravik confirmed Norway would uphold its legal obligations. “If there is an arrest warrant attached to an individual who is on Norwegian soil, we will execute on that warrant,” he said.

    He also addressed ongoing disciplinary proceedings against ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, urging all state parties to the court to respect the final findings of the independent judicial panel convened to investigate alleged misconduct. “When the report and three judges have come to the conclusion that there are no grounds for the termination of his contract, then I think that should be respected by states,” Kravik said. To disregard the panel’s independent ruling would risk open politicization of the court’s processes and erode its institutional integrity, he added.

    Turning to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Kravik criticized Israel for refusing to comply with a 2025 advisory opinion requested through a Norwegian-led UN General Assembly resolution, which ordered Israel to unblock full humanitarian access to Gaza and end its obstruction of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). “At the current moment, we’re seeing that those decisions by the ICJ are not respected by Israel,” he said. “That’s extremely unfortunate.”

    Kravik closed by reaffirming Norway’s longstanding commitment to UNRWA, describing the agency as an indispensable lifeline for Palestinian civilians that Oslo will continue to fund regardless of international pressure.

  • Two House Republicans to meet with the leader of Taiwan’s Beijing-friendly opposition party

    Two House Republicans to meet with the leader of Taiwan’s Beijing-friendly opposition party

    WASHINGTON D.C. – Against a backdrop of intensifying international scrutiny over the Trump administration’s evolving policy toward Taiwan, a visit by the leader of Taiwan’s Beijing-leaning opposition party to the U.S. capital this week has put cross-strait relations back in the global spotlight.

    Two senior Republican lawmakers from the U.S. House of Representatives have scheduled formal talks with Cheng Li-wun, chair of the Kuomintang Party, which has long publicly advocated for peaceful cross-strait reunification with mainland China. The meeting lineup includes Brian Mast, the Florida Republican who chairs the powerful House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Young Kim, a California Republican who leads the chamber’s East Asia policy subcommittee.

    In a pre-meeting interview, Mast noted that he entered the discussions without rigid pre-set expectations, framing the encounter as an opportunity to gather on-the-ground perspective from a key regional stakeholder. As committee chair, he emphasized, “I take intelligence from anywhere I can get.”

    Ellie Gilchrist, a spokesperson for Rep. Young Kim, laid out the lawmaker’s clear agenda for the bilateral talks. First, Kim will push Cheng and the Kuomintang to back expanded defense spending for Taiwan, framing increased investment as a critical step to prove the island’s commitment to self-defense and cross-strait deterrence. Second, Kim plans to press for greater transparency around the talks Cheng held with Chinese President Xi Jinping during an April visit to mainland China, seeking clarity on what commitments or understandings were reached during that meeting.

    The timing of Cheng’s Washington visit overlaps with a major pending decision from the Trump administration on U.S.-Taiwan engagement. President Donald Trump has repeatedly publicly kept open the possibility of a direct phone call with Taiwan’s sitting President Lai Ching-te – a step that would break decades of diplomatic protocol and draw sharp backlash from Beijing, which has already issued formal warnings against such contact.

    When questioned by reporters aboard Air Force One on a recent return trip to the U.S. from China, Trump reaffirmed his openness to the conversation, saying simply, “I’ll always talk to him.” The potential call comes as the administration weighs moving forward with a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that was approved by Congress earlier this year but has remained in political limbo.

    The discussion over defense spending comes on the heels of a high-stakes vote in Taiwan’s legislature, which is currently controlled by opposition parties including the Kuomintang. Lawmakers passed a $25 billion special defense budget earmarked for major purchases of U.S. military equipment earlier this year, but the final approved figure represents a steep cut from the $40 billion proposal originally put forward by President Lai Ching-te. The reduction prompted open expressions of disappointment from senior Trump administration officials, who had backed the original larger funding request.

  • An Everest guide’s miraculous survival raises questions for tourism industry

    An Everest guide’s miraculous survival raises questions for tourism industry

    On the notoriously treacherous upper slopes of Mount Everest, a story of extraordinary survival has captured global attention while forcing a long-overdue reckoning with the hidden dangers facing local guides in the booming high-altitude tourism trade. Last Thursday, a post-climbing-season cleanup team combing the Khumbu Icefall—widely labeled the deadliest stretch of the world’s highest peak—stumbled on a shocking discovery: 57-year-old Hillary Dawa Sherpa, a climbing guide who had been missing for six days and already presumed dead by his family, who had started funeral preparations.

    Weakened, frostbitten and severely exhausted, Hillary Dawa was still conscious enough to sit upright and speak to his rescuers before being airlifted to a Kathmandu hospital. News of his unlikely rescue spread rapidly across international headlines, stunning the global mountaineering community. But beyond the miracle of his survival, the incident has pulled back the curtain on systemic risks and questionable industry practices that put Sherpa workers in unacceptable danger.

    Hillary Dawa was originally hired by budget expedition operator Himalayan Traverse Adventure (HTA) as a camp cook stationed at Camp 2, roughly 7,200 meters above sea level. HTA managers say he was reassigned at the last minute to substitute for a lead guide who fell ill at Base Camp, a change he accepted to earn extra income. On May 29, he set out from the highest Camp 4 to descend the southern route alongside two clients: British former soldier Chris Thrall and Polish climber Mariusz Chmielewski, plus a second guide, Pasang Kaji Sherpa.

    When the group began their descent, Chmielewski was running low on oxygen, so Pasang Kaji and Chmielewski pressed ahead first. Thrall followed behind with Hillary Dawa, who stopped just above Camp 3 to rest on his backpack, as he had done hundreds of times before. “He says, ‘Yes, yes, I’m fine Chris, please go, ‘” Thrall recounted in an Instagram video. Facing an impossible choice between backtracking for Hillary Dawa, who seemed unhurt, or continuing to help Chmielewski—who was low on oxygen, suffering from early frostbite and at high risk of hypothermia in a raging snowstorm—Thrall chose to stay with the struggling client. With only half a tank of oxygen left, turning back would have likely put his own life at risk, he explained.

    The blizzard conditions were so severe that Thrall and Chmielewski were forced to write farewell messages to their families, convinced they would not survive the 38-hour trek back to Base Camp. When they arrived, they assumed Hillary Dawa had perished in the storm. Chmielewski, who also required hospital treatment for frostbite, has joined Hillary Dawa’s family in accusing HTA of gross negligence. He claims Pasang Kaji notified HTA of Hillary Dawa’s disappearance on May 30, but no search effort was launched for three full days. He also says HTA operated with chaotic planning and woefully inadequate preparation, and has called for the company to lose its operating license.

    For his part, Hillary Dawa has described how he ran out of oxygen above Camp 3 and could not continue moving, forcing him to wait out six days alone at lethal altitude. Most fully acclimatized climbers survive just 2 to 3 days without supplemental oxygen at that elevation. He went two full days without food, surviving on melted ice he chewed, before finding forgotten chocolate in his pocket that kept him going. He fell into a deep crevasse during his slow descent, but a subsequent avalanche filled part of the crevasse with snow, giving him the platform he needed to climb out. From there, he followed fixed ropes down until he encountered the cleanup team, the first people he had seen in nearly a week.

    HTA has defended its actions, arguing that severe weather made an immediate rescue impossible, and that any attempt to send rescuers into the storm would have resulted in more deaths. HTA founder Dawa Sherpa added that 8K Expeditions, the larger firm that issued the expedition’s climbing permits, bore responsibility for executing search operations. But 8K Expeditions countered that it was not contracted to provide logistical or operational support for HTA’s trip, saying HTA notified them of the disappearance on May 30 then went radio silent, and that an aerial search was not coordinated until June 2, which turned up no trace of Hillary Dawa. HTA manager Angfurba Sherpa has also pushed back against criticism, noting that the two clients paid one of the lowest rates on the market for the expedition—roughly $37,500 per person, far less than the six-figure sums charged by many top operators—and arguing that Hillary Dawa could have contacted the company via his working walkie-talkie if he had needed help.

    That claim has been rejected by Hillary Dawa’s loved ones, who say the guide was abandoned by the company he worked for. Mountaineering experts note that camp cooks are rarely trained or equipped to lead summit expeditions, even if they have previous high-altitude experience. As of early this week, Hillary Dawa has been moved out of intensive care to a general ward and is recovering well, but questions about the incident remain unanswered. Nepal’s tourism department has launched a formal investigation into the incident, and Hillary Dawa’s family has filed a police complaint alleging negligence. The extraordinary survival story has sparked urgent calls for better regulation and protections for Sherpa workers, who bear the brunt of the risk in the $200 million annual Everest tourism industry.

  • Canada seeks to ban social media accounts for children under 16, joining growing global effort

    Canada seeks to ban social media accounts for children under 16, joining growing global effort

    TORONTO — In a landmark step to strengthen digital child protection, Canada tabled new federal legislation on Wednesday that would block children under the age of 16 from accessing social media platforms, unless service providers can formally prove their platforms are built with sufficient safety measures for young users. The proposal puts Canada at the forefront of a broadening global push to overhaul online safety regulations and close gaps in protection for minors navigating digital spaces.

    Under the draft law, social media companies can apply for a regulatory exemption to allow under-16 users, but only after demonstrating they have implemented robust safeguards to mitigate harm to children. Adult content platforms are explicitly barred from receiving any such exemption, regardless of what protections they put in place.

    Speaking on the legislation, Canadian Minister of Culture Marc Miller delivered a blunt assessment of the current state of digital child safety, saying, “We are failing our children. Enough is enough. We need basic protection in place.”

    The legislation targets seven distinct categories of harmful content that put minors at risk, including material that encourages self-harm, incites violence and hatred, and distributes non-consensual intimate imagery. To enforce the new rules, the government will establish a new independent oversight body, the Digital Safety Commission of Canada. Establishing the commission is expected to take up to 18 months, with formal criteria for granting exemptions set to be released at a future date. The law will also require mandatory age verification processes for users, and platforms must document and submit proof that their systems are safe for young users to qualify for exemptions.

    Beyond social media regulation, the legislation also introduces new accountability requirements for developers of artificial intelligence chatbots. It imposes a legal duty of responsible conduct on these companies, requiring them to implement targeted safety measures such as formal crisis intervention protocols to prevent harm.

    Canada’s move comes as governments around the world increasingly move toward age-based restrictions for minor social media access. Australia, Brazil and Indonesia have already implemented or announced similar age-based rules, while the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Denmark, Thailand and South Korea are currently exploring or drafting comparable policies.

    Australia, which enacted an under-16 ban on social media, offers a key case study for Canadian policymakers. Australian officials report that social media companies have already removed roughly 4.7 million accounts confirmed to belong to underage users since the ban took effect. The Australian law has sparked intense public and policy debate over balancing child safety, digital access, privacy rights and youth mental health, but it has also encouraged other nations to advance similar regulatory frameworks. A senior Canadian government official confirmed during a press briefing that Canadian regulators will draw on lessons from Australia’s implementation to refine their own rollout.

    Child safety advocates have welcomed the Canadian proposal as a critical response to rising threats against minors online. Lianna McDonald, executive director of the Canadian Centre for Child Protection, praised the government’s action, highlighting that incidents of sextortion — a common exploitation crime carried out over social media — have increased dramatically in recent years.

  • Revealed: New details of London event promoting Israeli settlement-linked companies

    Revealed: New details of London event promoting Israeli settlement-linked companies

    A new investigative report by Middle East Eye (MEE) has exposed unreported links between an upcoming Israeli real estate exhibition in London and companies operating in illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, sparking widespread cross-party political outcry, demands for a ban, and official government scrutiny.

    The Great Israeli Real Estate Event is slated to open this Sunday, June 14, but organizers have so far refused to publicly disclose its venue in the UK capital. What has already been made public, however, is the participation roster of exhibiting firms, posted to Facebook earlier this week by Emanuel Vatari, CEO of the Emanuel Group — one of the event’s lead sponsors.

    Among the confirmed participants is Harey Zahav, an Israeli property development firm that openly advertises residential units in Negohot, an illegal Israeli settlement located in the southern Hebron Hills of the occupied West Bank. Another exhibitor, the Meshulam Levinstein Group — a conglomerate spanning construction, engineering, and real estate — has a documented track record of building both residential and commercial developments in illegal settlements across the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, including a major housing and retail project in the Homat Shmuel settlement neighborhood in East Jerusalem. Additional participating firms include Tivuch Shelly, a real estate agency that markets properties in the large West Bank settlement of Ma’ale Adunim, and Africa Israel Residences, a subsidiary of the Africa Israel Group that has led multiple settlement development projects in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

    The revelations come just one day after the UK government announced a new policy that explicitly advises British businesses against engaging in any economic or financial activity tied to illegal Israeli settlements. When questioned by Labour MP Richard Burgon earlier this week on whether the government would move to ban the event, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told reporters: “We are pursuing this particular event, and also if there are any cases where we find that there are breaches of UK law, we will pursue those issues as well.” MEE has already submitted documented evidence of the event’s settlement connections to the Foreign Office for official review.

    Organizers have pushed back forcefully against the allegations, telling Jewish News this week that none of the properties on display at the event are located beyond the Green Line — the 1949 armistice line that marks the pre-1967 borders of Israel. In a statement, they dismissed the claims as “ridiculous allegations” motivated by “anti-Israeli and terrorist supporters, seeking only excuses to attack Jews in general and the State of Israel in particular.”

    This is not the first time the event has generated international controversy. A similar iteration of The Great Israeli Real Estate Event held in New York City last month drew widespread condemnation after outlet The Intercept confirmed at least one exhibitor was advertising land sales in multiple occupied settlements including Kfar Eldad and Karnei Shomron. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani publicly stated he was “deeply opposed” to the expo over its promotion of settlement land sales.

    In London, senior political figures have united in calls to cancel the event entirely. Green Party leader Zack Polanski described the prospect of hosting an expo advertising settlement property as obscene, particularly amid a documented surge in violent attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian communities in the West Bank. “Sadiq Khan should intervene to stop this event taking place in our city and show that London does not tolerate complicity with the dispossession and subjugation of the Palestinian people,” Polanski told MEE. Former Labour leader and Your Party leader Jeremy Corbyn echoed the condemnation, saying: “Israel is now selling Palestinian land at a real estate fair in London this weekend. Let us all say: no, it is totally wrong, illegal and unconscionable that an occupying power would travel abroad to sell land that isn’t theirs, to make even more Palestinian people homeless.” MEE has reached out to London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s office for comment on Polanski’s call for intervention.

    Legal and human rights groups have also joined the campaign to block the event. The International Centre of Justice for Palestinians (ICJP), a UK-based legal organization, has submitted a formal letter to London’s Metropolitan Police demanding an immediate investigation into whether the event violates UK domestic law, and has also contacted Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Business Secretary Peter Kyle to push for action. “The prospect of an event in London promoting property in illegal Israeli settlements is outrageous and flies in the face of the UK’s own longstanding position on the matter,” said ICJP public affairs officer Orlaith Roe. “Palestinian land is not for sale, and occupation is not a real estate opportunity. It is a violation of international law. I would also remind the Home Secretary that she has the power to prevent this event from going ahead and to ensure the UK’s own position on the illegality of Israeli settlements is upheld.” Amnesty International UK has also publicly urged the government to take immediate action to cancel the event.

    Even as organizers reject the allegations, public pressure has already prompted small changes to the event’s online presence: as of this week, the event’s website displays a map of Israel that incorporates the entire occupied Palestinian territories, though references to Gush Etzion — a major cluster of illegal settlements south of Jerusalem — that were previously visible on the site have been removed. Jeanine Hourani, a representative of the Palestinian Youth Movement which is leading grassroots campaigning to cancel the expo, said the removal showed pressure was having an impact, but added: “this is not enough. Our demand has been clear from the beginning: for the entire event to be cancelled.”

    Multiple UK parliamentarians have also stressed that allowing the event to proceed would amount to implicit endorsement of illegal settlement activity. “This is not a neutral property event. It is an expo that, according to its own promotional material and participating companies, will showcase and market housing connected to illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank,” said independent MP Shockat Adam. Fellow independent MP Adnan Hussain added: “to allow the event would be to indicate approval of Israel’s illegal activities in the occupied West Bank.”

    The controversy comes amid growing scrutiny of UK links to Israeli settlements, with Labour MP Melanie Ward this week criticising 32 British charities that she has documented have sent more than £28 million ($37.5 million) to Israeli settlements over recent years. Ward last week submitted a formal complaint to the UK’s Charity Commission over the groups, and when asked to confirm whether charitable donations to settlements are banned, Prime Minister Keir Starmer only stated that “no UK charity should be supporting [settlements]”.

    As of publication, MEE has attempted to contact the event’s primary organizers for additional comment but has not received a response.

  • FBI seizes 13 websites that officials say were used by China to target and recruit US workers

    FBI seizes 13 websites that officials say were used by China to target and recruit US workers

    In a major counterintelligence move announced Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has taken control of more than a dozen fraudulent websites that U.S. officials claim form part of a Chinese government scheme to target U.S. workers with access to classified and sensitive national security information.

    According to law enforcement, all 13 seized domains were designed to impersonate legitimate consulting firms, posting deceptive job advertisements targeted specifically at current and former U.S. government employees who hold active security clearances. Behind this polished facade, every fake company and every job listing was a carefully constructed ruse to lure insiders into sharing sensitive data, officials confirmed.

    This domain seizure is the latest step in a coordinated push by Western law enforcement and intelligence communities to raise public awareness of what agencies describe as an ongoing, widespread campaign by Chinese intelligence to recruit clearance-holding personnel. The coordinated warning effort gained momentum last week, when the Five Eyes intelligence alliance — an English-speaking partnership grouping Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States — released a joint public bulletin cautioning that China is systematically targeting workers from all five member nations through mainstream job platforms to illicitly gain access to classified information.

    That bulletin detailed that operatives linked to Chinese military intelligence routinely pose as staff for private sector companies or independent think tanks. They advertise non-existent positions, ranging from foreign policy to defense analysis roles, and pressure job applicants to turn over non-public information as part of the application and hiring process.

    Court documents connected to the seizure, an FBI affidavit laid out how the scammers built credibility for the fake websites: they used stolen and falsified identities for company leadership, and deployed AI-generated images to create a false sense of legitimacy. All of the posted roles were generic consulting positions tailored to attract the interest of current and former U.S. government workers with clearance access. The affidavit also noted that these fraudulent websites are often promoted and linked in job postings placed by the scheme’s operators on mainstream professional hiring platforms such as LinkedIn.

    The Department of Justice added that applicants who responded to the fake listings were offered financial compensation in exchange for writing reports tied to their previous government work — and ultimately, for turning over sensitive classified information. Operators behind the plot, who U.S. officials allege have direct ties to Chinese intelligence services, use cryptocurrency and untraceable online payment systems to conceal their true identities and hide the financial transactions compensating recruits, according to official statements.

    Investigators first identified the fraudulent network after multiple targeted individuals came forward to report suspicious interactions they had experienced. Dan Wierzbicki, special agent in charge of the FBI Washington Field Office’s counterintelligence and cyber division, explained in an interview that much of the breakthrough intelligence came from interviews with members of the clearance-holding community who flagged unusual activity.

    “ A lot of this information came from doing interviews, interviews with people who came forward that something didn’t seem right, ” Wierzbicki said. “ They provided information and said, ‘Hey, this is kind of weird, we’re kind of getting paid by a cryptocurrency or an online payment system that’s not typical. ’”

    Wierzbicki also confirmed that the FBI assesses there are additional undiscovered websites operating with the same malicious purpose, and is asking members of the public — particularly clearance-holding current and former government personnel — to report any suspicious job solicitations to help the agency identify and shut down the remaining platforms.

    In response to the allegations, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington dismissed the claims of Chinese government-backed espionage as “entirely fabricated” and “malicious slander.”

    Associated Press journalist Didi Tang contributed additional reporting from Washington for this story.

  • How China’s BYD saw its $1bn Turkey EV plant deal unravel

    How China’s BYD saw its $1bn Turkey EV plant deal unravel

    Two years ago, a sprawling 1.6 million-square-meter plot of land in Turkey’s Manisa province was positioned to become the cornerstone of Ankara’s ambition to turn the country into one of Europe’s leading electric vehicle manufacturing hubs. Today, that same site remains untouched, overgrown with wild grass and untouched by construction crews. What was once hailed as a transformative deal between the Turkish government and Chinese EV giant BYD has collapsed into a high-stakes diplomatic and economic standoff, raising questions about Sino-Turkish relations, Chinese investment strategy in Europe, and Turkey’s aspirations for a slice of the global EV supply chain.

    In July 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took to the global stage to announce Ankara’s landmark achievement: securing a $1 billion investment from BYD, the world’s largest producer of electric vehicles. Under the terms of the agreement, BYD pledged to build a state-of-the-art production facility capable of rolling out 150,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles annually, alongside a dedicated research and development center focused on advancing sustainable mobility technologies. The project was targeted to begin full production by the end of 2026, with projections that it would create up to 5,000 direct local jobs. Turkish officials celebrated the deal as a major win, cementing the country’s position as a competitive manufacturing base for global automotive players.

    Just months later, however, those plans have been put on indefinite hold. In a recent interview with Reuters, Stella Li, BYD’s executive vice president, confirmed that the company has paused all preparatory work on the Manisa plant, and is refocusing its European expansion priorities. “Hungary is the number one priority right now,” Li stated, adding that the company’s next focus will be scouting locations for a second European facility – with Turkey currently off the immediate agenda.

    The shift in BYD’s plans has dealt a major blow to the Turkish government, which moved aggressively to court the EV maker long before breaking ground on the project. To entice BYD to choose Turkey over competing European locations, Ankara granted the company generous, upfront tax breaks on all its domestic vehicle sales, even before construction commenced. Those incentives paid off quickly for BYD: combined with a new aggressive market entry strategy, the company’s Turkish sales skyrocketed to more than 45,000 units in 2025. Independent experts estimate that BYD has already pocketed between $500 million and $1 billion in extra profits from the Turkish market as a direct result of the preferential tax treatment.

    Ankara has responded with threats of retaliation. In February, Turkish Industry Minister Fatih Kacir announced that the government could impose sanctions and heavy monetary fines on BYD for violating the terms of the original investment agreement. While Turkish media reports have suggested penalties could reach as high as $1 billion, sources close to the Turkish government familiar with the negotiations tell Middle East Eye that this figure is widely seen as unrealistic in Ankara. Even if maximum fines are imposed, experts add, the penalties are unlikely to recoup all of the lost tax revenue that Ankara has forfeited to date, though any fine would still represent a substantial penalty for the company.

    To understand how the deal unraveled, it is necessary to look back at the longstanding structural tensions that undermined the project from its earliest days. Even immediately after the agreement was signed between BYD and Ankara, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a quiet directive to more than a dozen major Chinese domestic automakers: cutting-edge electric vehicle technology should remain based in China. The directive specifically named Turkey and India as high-risk markets, requiring any Chinese carmaker planning investment in the two countries to first seek approval from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the regulator that oversees the country’s EV sector, as well as the Chinese embassy in Ankara. Sources in Ankara say that order immediately drained momentum from BYD’s investment plans.

    China’s longstanding caution about deep investment in Turkey stems from two persistent bilateral disputes that have shaped relations for decades. First, Chinese officials have never forgotten Ankara’s 2015 last-minute cancellation of a $3.4 billion deal to purchase Chinese air defense systems, a move that came after intense diplomatic pressure from the United States. Beijing continues to cite the episode as proof that Turkey is an unreliable strategic partner.

    Second, the status of the Uyghur population has long been a thorn in the side of Sino-Turkish relations. Uyghurs are an ethnically Turkic group, with an estimated 12 million living in China’s Xinjiang region, and many in Turkey view them as cultural kin. While the Turkish government has largely avoided public criticism of China’s policies in Xinjiang – even as international human rights organizations characterize Beijing’s actions as genocide – Beijing has still pushed Ankara for greater concessions on the issue.

    Many analysts initially believed the BYD deal had been unlocked after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s high-profile visit to Xinjiang in June 2024, a trip that fulfilled a years-long Chinese goal of showcasing what it frames as normal, stable life for Uyghurs in the region. But sources now indicate that Beijing’s demands went much further: among unmet requirements was the deportation of Uyghur political leaders who have sought refuge in Turkey, a step that would cross a hard domestic political red line for any Turkish government, carrying enormous political cost.

    Beyond bilateral tensions, shifting European trade policy further undermined the appeal of a Turkish manufacturing base for BYD. Last year, the European Union began drafting new “Made in Europe” legislation that would exclude vehicles produced in Turkey from large public procurement contracts across the bloc. That directly threatens one of Turkey’s core competitive advantages for automotive manufacturing: its decades-old customs union with the EU, which allows tariff-free access to the single market for goods produced in Turkey.

    Multiple senior European officials confirmed to Middle East Eye last year that the bloc’s explicit goal is to restrict access to the European market for Chinese-made EVs assembled in Turkey by Chinese firms. “No doubt, we will take absolutely necessary steps and produce regulation to force China not to use Turkey as only an assembly line but actually develop and produce components,” one senior European official explained. Turkish political lobbyists working on the file say this EU pressure was a major factor pushing BYD to reconsider the investment. A longstanding observer of Sino-Turkish relations added that BYD can instead manufacture vehicles in Hungary – which holds full EU membership – and export them to Turkey without facing steep tariffs, thanks to Turkey’s existing customs arrangements with the EU. That makes a Hungarian base far more commercially advantageous than a Turkish one for accessing both the EU and Turkish markets.

    In a final blow to the deal, Beijing demanded additional sweeping concessions from Ankara to move the project forward. In April, Jin Xin, vice minister for foreign affairs of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, held talks with Turkish officials where he raised Beijing’s concerns about Turkey’s volatile economic conditions. According to a source familiar with the discussion, Jin requested additional measures to shield Chinese companies from the impact of Turkish foreign exchange fluctuations, and called for even more extensive tax breaks for BYD beyond the incentives already granted. He also pushed Ankara to speed up and simplify work visa processes for Chinese workers and executives that would be based in Turkey for the project.

    Jin also told Turkish officials that Beijing was pressuring BYD to move forward with the Manisa plant, but claimed the government’s ability to force the private firm to comply was limited. That argument found little purchase in Ankara, with insiders dismissing it as a hollow gesture. “They basically tossed us aside,” one Turkish official involved in the talks told MEE.

    Today, the empty Manisa site stands as a visible reminder of the risks global carmakers and host governments face as the global EV industry reshapes supply chains, and as great power competition reshapes trade and investment patterns across Europe and the Middle East.

  • Israel ’emptying’ Al-Aqsa facilities to undermine Waqf, watchdog warns

    Israel ’emptying’ Al-Aqsa facilities to undermine Waqf, watchdog warns

    A Jerusalem-focused Palestinian monitoring organization has sounded the alarm over Israel’s forced takeover of four key facilities within the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, framing the move as part of a widening campaign to undermine the Jordanian-backed Islamic Waqf that administers the holy site. In a public statement released Tuesday, the Al-Quds International Institution detailed that Israeli authorities have targeted the sites under what the group calls fabricated security justifications. Over the past several months, Israeli forces have raided each location, broken off original door locks, and blocked attempts by Waqf staff to install new locks, leaving the premises unsecured. Any individual attempting to access the facilities has been forcibly removed, with Israeli officials claiming the spaces were previously used for activities that pose a risk to public security. The four seized facilities are strategically positioned at each of the four corners of the sprawling 144,000-square-meter Al-Aqsa compound, a detail the Al-Quds International Institution says confirms the action was premeditated rather than accidental. The sites are: the Dome of Imam al-Ghazali, situated above the Bab al-Rahma prayer hall along the complex’s eastern wall; Dar al-Hadith al-Sharif, located in the compound’s northeastern quadrant; Qubbat Sulayman, an open-air domed shrine opposite King Faisal Gate; and Qubbat Musa, which stands near Bab al-Silsila, also known as the Chain Gate. The monitoring group warns that clearing the Waqf out of these sites could open the door for Israeli law enforcement to expand their control over all landmarks and facilities across Al-Aqsa, ultimately allowing Israel to establish itself as the de facto governing body at the site in place of the Waqf. Al-Aqsa Mosque, which ranks among the holiest sites in global Islam, is located in the Old City of occupied East Jerusalem. Its walled compound hosts dozens of religious sites, including shrines, prayer halls, religious schools, and open courtyards. For decades, an internationally recognized status quo agreement has held that the Al-Aqsa complex is to be exclusively administered and maintained by Muslim religious institutions. Since Israel occupied East Jerusalem in 1967, this administrative responsibility has been held by the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, a body appointed by the Jordanian government. In recent years, however, the Waqf has faced growing pressure from Israeli measures designed to limit its authority and expand Israeli control over the site. Waqf officials have repeatedly reported to regional outlet Middle East Eye that Israeli restrictions have made it far more difficult for staff to enter the compound and complete routine maintenance and repair work. The Al-Quds International Institution emphasized that the latest seizure of the four facilities must be understood as part of a longer pattern of Israeli actions at Al-Aqsa, warning the move is a gradual step toward taking over the sites entirely and shutting down Waqf operations within the compound. “The consequences of these measures extend far beyond their already dangerous immediate effects,” the organization said in its statement. The group has called on Jordan to develop a comprehensive, serious strategy to defend Al-Aqsa and halt the erosion of its long-standing custodial role, noting that formal statements of condemnation alone are not enough to reverse the current trend. It also urged all Arab and Muslim-majority nations to acknowledge what it describes as an existential threat to Al-Aqsa Mosque and take on greater collective responsibility for protecting the site. The announcement comes just one month after Middle East Eye (MEE) published an exclusive report revealing that the United States and Israel have been quietly working to strip Jordan of its historic custodianship over Al-Aqsa. Multiple unnamed sources told MEE that the two countries are pushing for a new management arrangement that would align control of the revered Muslim site more closely with Israeli policy goals, effectively sidelining the Waqf from its core administrative duties. The United States has publicly denied the existence of such a plan.

  • Netherlands keeper Bart Verbruggen day-to-day with hip injury ahead of World Cup game against Japan

    Netherlands keeper Bart Verbruggen day-to-day with hip injury ahead of World Cup game against Japan

    RIVERSIDE, Mo. — The Netherlands men’s national soccer team is facing a last-minute injury crisis just days ahead of their opening 2024 FIFA World Cup group stage match against Japan, after starting goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was sidelined from team training Wednesday due to a hip injury sustained in a pre-tournament friendly against Uzbekistan. The 23-year-old Brighton & Hove Albion shot-stopper, who is head coach Ronald Koeman’s undisputed first-choice between the posts, was forced out of Monday’s tune-up match in New York, where he was substituted by Mark Flekken in the side’s 2-1 victory. The Dutch squad also has third goalkeeper Robin Roefs included in their 26-man World Cup roster as a backup option.

    Verbruggen’s availability for Sunday’s Dallas kickoff against Japan remains uncertain as the team monitors his recovery day by day. Speaking to reporters after Wednesday’s light 90-minute session, held at the training facility of NWSL side Kansas City Current, Koeman offered a cautiously optimistic update: “We have to wait. We think (Verbruggen) can reach the match on Sunday, but day-by-day we have to wait for that. The rest of the boys are physically OK.”

    This latest injury scare adds to a string of selection blows for the Dutch side, which has reached three World Cup finals in its history but has never lifted the coveted trophy. Earlier this month, the team confirmed star defender Jurrien Timber would miss the entire tournament after suffering a groin injury. The 24-year-old Arsenal center-back had played 55 minutes in the 2024 Champions League final against Paris Saint-Germain just over a week before his withdrawal, and was replaced in the roster by Lutsharel Geertruida of Sunderland. Timber’s injury followed an earlier blow: top playmaker Xavi Simons was ruled out after tearing the ACL in his right knee during a Premier League fixture with Tottenham Hotspur, requiring urgent surgery last month.

    After wrapping up their friendly against Uzbekistan in New York, the Netherlands traveled to their pre-tournament base camp in Riverside, Missouri, where extreme summer heat has added an extra challenge for the squad. Koeman called off Tuesday’s scheduled full training session as heat indexes neared 100 degrees Fahrenheit, and Wednesday’s open training was largely limited to low-intensity 3-on-3 footvolley, a hybrid game that allows players to only use their feet and heads to touch the ball. Even with the adjusted schedule, midday temperatures remained brutally hot for the squad.

    Dutch captain Virgil van Dijk noted that while the hot, humid conditions are demanding, the challenge is equal for all teams competing in the tournament. The Liverpool center-back drew on his experience of preseason tours across Asia and the United States with his club, where similar high temperatures are common. “Different places in Asia, it was similar type of temperatures. It was very humid,” van Dijk said. “But it’s going to be the same for every team. You have to adapt quickly, and you also have to adapt in games as well. … We’ll be ready.”

    The Netherlands’ 2024 World Cup campaign kicks off Sunday against Japan in Dallas, with subsequent group stage matches against Sweden on June 20 and Tunisia on June 25 as they chase their first ever World Cup title.

  • Ceasefires and construction: How Israel is cementing its presence in Lebanon and Syria

    Ceasefires and construction: How Israel is cementing its presence in Lebanon and Syria

    Last week, Israel released footage of its troops capturing Lebanon’s iconic Beaufort Castle, a 1,000-year-old Crusader-era fortress overlooking sweeping vistas of southern Lebanon. The imagery, which shows Israeli flags flying over the ancient battlements, was crafted to project military dominance, but it also hints at a far broader, long-term territorial ambition playing out across southern Lebanon and neighboring Syria. When Israeli soldiers scanned the fortress’s ancient basalt walls, they would have encountered another, more modern feature: concrete bunkers, leftover from a decades-long occupation that ended 25 years ago. Between 1982 and 2000, the Israeli military maintained a permanent garrison at Beaufort Castle, which became a repeated target of Hezbollah guerrilla attacks that ultimately forced Israel’s full withdrawal. A quarter of a century later, Israel is once again building fortified military outposts on occupied high ground across newly seized territory, this time stretching from the Mediterranean coast of Lebanon across the Golan Heights to Syria’s Yarmouk Basin on the Jordanian border.

    Analysis of months of satellite imagery, alongside on-the-ground testimony from Lebanese, Syrian and Hezbollah sources, confirms that Israel has engaged in a systematic, large-scale construction of military infrastructure across occupied areas of both countries since late 2024, a development that strongly indicates a plan for permanent occupation. Multiple regional military and political sources tell Middle East Eye that despite repeated Israeli pledges of withdrawal, there is no expectation that Israel will abandon these new positions. As one senior Lebanese military source put it: “If you are planning to withdraw, you do not carry out this much work.”

    Israel first launched its full-scale invasion of Lebanon in October 2024, escalating a year of cross-border clashes that Hezbollah initiated in protest of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. By the time Israel signed a ceasefire agreement on 27 November 2024 that committed it to full withdrawal, Lebanon had already suffered catastrophic damage: most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership had been killed, more than 4,000 Lebanese civilians and combatants had died in Israeli strikes, and over one million people had been displaced from southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut. The terms of the agreement required Israel to complete its withdrawal within 60 days, in exchange for Hezbollah moving its forces north of the Litani River. But even after an extended deadline passed, Israel refused to withdraw from five key hilltop positions it seized in the first days of the invasion. All five outposts are strategically located on high ground that offers unobstructed surveillance over large swathes of southern Lebanon, running along nearly all of Lebanon’s 79-kilometer border with Israel. The outposts overlook multiple depopulated Lebanese towns and villages, many of which have already been completely leveled by Israeli strikes.

    Satellite imagery tracking construction at these sites shows that work began as early as October 2024, starting with the demolition of nearby civilian structures. Israel used air strikes, controlled detonations and bulldozers to raze entire neighborhoods and border communities. Over the following months, the imagery records the widening of access roads, large-scale land clearing, and the construction of earthen defensive fortifications. By the start of 2025, prefabricated accommodation units and military vehicles began appearing at the sites. Most notably, large-scale construction accelerated after the ceasefire took effect, when Israel had formally agreed to withdraw. Between January and September 2025, Israel rapidly expanded the outposts: fortifications were widened, heightened and extended along key access roads, base perimeters were expanded, roads were further broadened, and concrete watchtowers were erected. By November 2025, satellite imagery shows a sharp increase in both accommodation capacity and military vehicle presence at all five sites. “For 15 months, we watched the Israelis bring in reinforcements, conduct drilling works, and open roads around these sites – steps that suggest an intention to remain permanently,” the Lebanese military source explained.

    Israel is also making use of, and expanding, patrol tracks originally built by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the UN peacekeeping mission that has operated in the region for 20 years and is scheduled to end operations in 2027. Israel’s westernmost outpost at Labbouneh sits just 150 meters from an existing UNIFIL base and just two kilometers from UNIFIL’s coastal main headquarters, while its outpost at Tal Dowary near Houla is just 1.5 kilometers from a UNIFIL peacekeeping position.

    A source close to Hezbollah describes the outposts as dual-purpose operational hubs: “They are designed defensively, making it impossible to approach them, while also allowing offensive operations to be launched from them.” The source, who has direct knowledge of developments in southern Lebanon, says Israel intends the bases to support a five-kilometer deep occupied buffer zone inside Lebanese territory. Hostilities resumed in early March 2025 after Israel killed Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and a key spiritual figure for Lebanese Shia communities, prompting Hezbollah to resume attacks amid fears of a new full-scale Israeli invasion. Weeks later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the construction of additional new outposts inside Lebanese territory. Serving Israeli soldiers told Israeli newspaper Haaretz that these newer positions are clearly not temporary. “These are permanent outposts that will be manned for a long time,” one soldier said. “Nobody really knows where this is going.”

    Despite Israel’s fortified presence, the effectiveness of its southern Lebanon outposts remains open to question. While Hezbollah suffered heavy losses during the invasion and subsequent ceasefire, the group has already reorganised its forces in southern Lebanon within view of Israeli positions. Since hostilities resumed, Hezbollah has carried out repeated attacks across border areas, and Israeli troops have failed to secure full control over villages located near their bases, including the town of Khiam. Israel’s hold on newer outposts has been even more fragile: Hezbollah fighters even managed to film themselves removing an Israeli flag from an outpost near the western Lebanese town of al-Bayyada.

    A new U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal was presented to both parties last Thursday, but the text makes no mention of requiring an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied areas, which now make up roughly one-fifth of Lebanon’s total territory. Israel announced its acceptance of the plan but has continued to carry out strikes in Lebanon and seize additional territory. Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem has said the group rejects any ceasefire that does not include a commitment to full Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory. A Hezbollah source warns that Israel is pursuing a strategy to permanently separate southern Lebanon from the rest of the country, noting that the previous ceasefire allowed Israel to solidify its permanent foothold. “According to current assessments, Israel is now trying to entrench itself in every position it has reached and turn those positions into fixed centres,” the source said. “Yet so far, beyond the positions it already established, fortified and turned into centres during the previous war, everything newly created remains unfortified and vulnerable at any moment to attacks by the resistance.”

    Israel’s permanent occupation push is not limited to Lebanon. The end of the 2024 Lebanon invasion coincided with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, opening a path for Israel to seize new territory in the country’s southwest. On 27 November 2024, the same day the Lebanese ceasefire took effect, Syrian opposition forces launched an offensive from their Idlib stronghold that reached Damascus and toppled Assad within two weeks. As opposition leader Ahmed al-Sharaa’s forces consolidated control of the capital, Israel launched widespread strikes on Syrian military sites and moved its own troops into and beyond the UN-monitored neutral buffer zone along the Golan Heights. One of the first strategic sites Israel seized was the summit of Mount Hermon, the Levant’s second-highest peak at 2,814 meters. Netanyahu made a high-profile visit to Mount Hermon that December, publicly stating that Israeli forces would not withdraw from the summit for at least a year. As of mid-2026, Israeli troops remain in control of the peak.

    Israel has now built a 70-kilometer chain of outposts stretching from the summit of Mount Hermon to the Yarmouk River on the Syrian-Jordanian border. Middle East Eye has identified at least 10 new Israeli bases and observation posts in newly occupied Syrian territory since the fall of Assad, eight of which are located inside the original neutral buffer zone. The buffer zone was established along the Purple Line – the armistice boundary of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights – after the 1973 Middle East war, and is monitored by the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Satellite imagery also shows Israel has built extensive lines of earthen fortifications along the Purple Line, including raised earthen mounds that allow military vehicles to access high vantage points for surveillance.

    Carmit Valensi, head of the Syrian program at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a leading Israeli security think tank, says Israel’s push into Syria is driven by deep distrust of the new Syrian government led by al-Sharaa. Valensi says the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks on southern Israel “shattered” the long-standing Israeli assumption that deterrence – “the main pillar of Israeli strategy” – would prevent enemy attacks. “From that point on, Israel decided to adopt what we might call the buffer zone strategy, which obviously we can see clearly in Syria and Lebanon and Gaza,” she told Middle East Eye.

    Israeli bases are now distributed across three Syrian provinces: Quneitra, Daraa, and the Damascus Countryside. Mirroring the pattern in Lebanon, earthen berms with embedded watchtowers surround fortified troop accommodation and vehicle staging areas. All bases are located on strategic high ground, key road junctions, and terrain that overlooks corridors connecting the Golan Heights to Damascus. At the Tulul al-Humr outpost, Israeli troops are positioned just 40 kilometers from the Syrian capital. “In western Daraa, positions were selected specifically because they provide commanding oversight over valley entrances and surrounding villages,” a military source from the new Syrian government explained. Many of these bases are also located close to UNDOF peacekeeping positions: one outpost north of the village of Hader, in the foothills of Mount Hermon, sits just 500 meters from an existing UNDOF base. Notably, as Israel expanded its own base over the course of several months, the adjacent UNDOF position also expanded.

    There are key differences between Israel’s construction in Syria and its activity in Lebanon. Almost all of Israel’s new Syrian outposts are built on land previously controlled by Assad’s Syrian Arab Army. “Initially, Israel’s ground operations in southwestern Syria focused on the destruction of former Syrian Arab Army positions, followed by the construction of new military infrastructure,” the Syrian military source said. “This process included mine-laying operations, the demolition of civilian homes, forced displacement, and the destruction of agricultural land and forested areas – methods that strongly resemble practices observed in both Gaza and the West Bank.” For example, satellite imagery shows Israel has expanded an old Syrian position on a hilltop near Hader, converting it into a large, fully functional base with new buildings and support facilities. In southern Syria, Israel has seized the al-Jazira military barracks, a hilltop position that overlooks both the Yarmouk and Ruqqad rivers. Near Quneitra, the provincial capital that Israel reduced to a ghost town decades ago, two new Israeli bases have been built on the ruins of old Syrian military compounds.

    Unlike in southern Lebanon, where Israel repurposed pre-existing dirt roads and tracks for its outposts, Israel has carved entirely new roads into Syrian terrain to connect its bases, with links extending back into the Golan Heights and the main Golan town of Majdal Shams. Most of these new roads have been paved to allow rapid movement of troops and equipment. The largest new Israeli base in occupied Syria is located at Jubata al-Khashab, a staging post built in a forested area near the Purple Line, connected by paved roads to more advanced forward outposts. Satellite imagery confirms the base hosts large numbers of military vehicles and weapons storage facilities. “In terms of the characteristics of these positions and bases, we can assume that there is a long-term intention,” Valensi said.

    Across both Lebanon and Syria, a clear pattern has emerged: Israel systematically expands and fortifies its military infrastructure during periods of supposed ceasefire and diplomatic negotiation. While there is no formal active conflict between Israel and the new Syrian government, the Syrian leadership has approached the United States to negotiate an agreement that would end Israeli occupation and strikes on Syrian territory. “Ceasefires have increasingly functioned as diplomatic delays that provide Israel with opportunities to entrench itself militarily, exploit operational gaps, and consolidate territorial control. In practice, there is little evidence of a genuine diplomatic process,” a senior Syrian military source said. The source added that Israel rapidly expanded its presence in Syria after the U.S. established a “joint fusion mechanism” for coordination and de-escalation between the three countries in January 2026. Since that agreement was signed, Israeli checkpoints have appeared on multiple key roads in western Daraa between Tal Ahmar al-Gharbi and the al-Jazira barracks. “Data collected between February and May indicates that Israel is not genuinely pursuing negotiations or diplomacy. Rather, it is using diplomatic processes as windows of opportunity for long-term entrenchment,” the source said.

    Valensi warns that Israel’s permanent occupation of large areas of Syria is ultimately unsustainable, noting that the Israeli military has already been drained by two and a half years of constant regional conflict. She also argues that the long-term costs of a permanent aggressive Israeli presence in Syria far outweigh any tactical benefits. “In my opinion, it causes much more damage than advantages,” she said. According to Syrian military sources, Israel has carried out an average of 17.5 raids on Syrian villages each month over the past year, alongside mass arrests, periodic shelling of farmland, and forced evictions of local communities. Valensi notes that this sustained pressure has already shifted Syrian public discourse toward Israel. “We clearly see the change and the shift in the Syrian discourse towards Israel from rather more moderate, restrained stances into much more radical ones,” she said.