标签： Africa

Across Kenya’s sprawling agricultural and manufacturing export sectors, anticipation is reaching a fever pitch as China prepares to implement a sweeping zero-tariff policy for most African exports starting May 1. Industry leaders across the East African nation say this landmark trade measure has the potential to reshape bilateral trade routes and unlock unprecedented opportunities for small and large producers alike, granting unrivaled access to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing consumer markets.

For many Kenyan exporters, the policy shift is far more than a simple reduction in shipping costs: it removes a longstanding trade barrier that has kept many competitive Kenyan goods out of reach for most Chinese buyers. Joel Mwiti Kobia, managing director of Kenyan agro-exporter Nutri Nuts and Fruits, noted that the combination of zero tariffs and China’s 1.4 billion consumers creates an unparalleled growth opportunity for African agricultural producers.

Kenya already launched its first zero-tariff test shipment to China in late March, loaded with high-demand fresh products including avocados, coffee, and green beans. For Kobia’s firm, which focuses on nut and fruit exports, early forays into the Chinese market have already exceeded expectations. The company began shipping macadamia nuts to China in 2021 with a single 16-metric-ton container; by 2025, annual exports had skyrocketed to 120 tons. With the existing 15 percent tariff set to drop completely, Kobia projects exports will more than double again, hitting nearly 250 tons in the next few years, while also creating new formal jobs at local processing facilities.

Shifting consumption trends in China are working heavily in Kenyan producers’ favor. Kobia pointed out that China’s rapidly expanding middle class, driven by rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanization, and growing public focus on health and wellness, is driving soaring demand for high-quality, nutrient-dense premium food products. This changing demand landscape has created a particularly fertile market for unique African agricultural exports.

Margaret Njoki, commercial manager for fresh and frozen produce at Vertical Agro Group, said Kenyan avocado exporters are already positioning for a major breakthrough in the Chinese market. Currently, Kenya competes with established avocado exporters like Peru and Mexico for Chinese market share, but Njoki said the elimination of tariffs will cut her product prices enough to expand both the volume and quality of avocado shipments to China.

The benefits of the policy are expected to ripple across the entire Kenyan agricultural value chain, from large exporting firms down to smallholder farmers. Njoki explained that higher export demand will encourage more Kenyan smallholders to plant avocado orchards, boosting household incomes and creating new rural employment opportunities across growing regions.

Even Kenyan tea producers, who have long been sidelined in the Chinese market due to uncompetitive pricing, are newly optimistic about their prospects. Kelvin Mbugi, a representative of Kenya Tea Packers, noted that zero tariffs will finally give quality Kenyan tea a fair shot at gaining traction in the world’s largest tea consumer market. “Currently we are unable to export tea to China because we are not competitive in prices. However, with zero tariffs, we will now have a chance not only to deliver quality, but also to have a competitive advantage in pricing,” Mbugu said.

Kenyan exporters are specifically targeting China’s growing cohort of health-conscious consumers with unique specialty tea offerings. Products like antioxidant-rich purple tea and antiaging-focused white tea, which are already produced in Kenya at scale, align perfectly with shifting Chinese consumer preferences, and producers say they are already prepared to meet rising demand.

The new zero-tariff framework opens doors beyond traditional agricultural food exports too. Small-scale Kenyan manufacturers are already exploring entry to the Chinese market with niche products, including premium pet food, that would become far more price competitive with tariffs eliminated. Irene Nzovo, a Kenyan manufacturer focused on pet food, said the policy will allow her to secure larger bulk orders and expand her customer base across China.

While industry leaders widely welcome the policy, they also emphasize the work that remains to help Kenyan producers fully capitalize on the opportunity. Erick Rutto, president of the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, stressed that targeted training is critical to help smallholder farms and small exporting companies meet China’s strict sanitary and phytosanitary standards, ensuring their products can clear customs and access the mainstream Chinese market.

As the May 1 implementation date approaches, the entire Kenyan export sector is poised to test the transformative potential of this new trade arrangement, with many expecting long-term benefits for both bilateral trade and Kenyan economic growth.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Western powers has sent shockwaves through global fossil fuel markets, triggering ripple effects that are reshaping long-term energy policy across two of the world’s fastest-growing regions: Africa and Asia. Disruptions to key shipping lanes for Middle Eastern oil and natural gas – which supplied the bulk of Asia’s energy demand – have sent energy prices soaring worldwide, with both developing Asian and African economies feeling the strain earliest and most acutely. Even wealthy Western nations including the United States and across Europe have not escaped the pressure of inflated energy costs driven by the conflict.

Against this backdrop of market volatility, nations across both continents are moving rapidly to expand nuclear power generation. Countries with existing nuclear infrastructure are ramping up output to address immediate short-term energy gaps, while nations with no operational nuclear capacity are accelerating long-term nuclear development plans to insulate themselves against future fossil fuel supply shocks. Experts note that while nuclear energy cannot resolve the current energy crisis overnight, as new nuclear projects can take decades to complete for first-time nuclear nations, today’s policy commitments will permanently embed atomic power in many countries’ future energy portfolios.

“The war has accelerated a global ‘nuclear renaissance,’ as countries seek an escape from the volatility of global fossil fuel markets,” explained Rachel Bronson, executive director of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Data from the International Atomic Energy Agency underscores this growing momentum: 31 countries currently operate nuclear power plants, which generate roughly 10% of the world’s total electricity, and an additional 40 nations are either exploring nuclear technology or actively preparing to break ground on their first facilities.

In hard-hit Asia, the shift toward nuclear power is already well underway. Across the region, where governments have turned to emergency measures from increased coal burning to discounted Russian crude imports to shore up supplies, nations with existing reactors are maximizing output from their current fleets. South Korea has boosted generation at all operational plants and fast-tracked maintenance work on five idled reactors, with restarts scheduled for May. Both Taiwan and Japan are rolling back post-Fukushima policies that shuttered large numbers of nuclear facilities after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that triggered the catastrophic Fukushima Daiichi meltdown.

Taiwan is now launching the multi-year process of restarting two mothballed reactors, a move that requires extensive safety inspections, system upgrades and regulatory approval. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has moved aggressively to expand nuclear power since the outbreak of the Iran war, signing a $40 billion reactor development deal with the United States, a nuclear fuel recycling agreement with France, and a new cooperation pact with Indonesia. Japan also restarted the world’s largest nuclear facility, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, in January. While the conflict has also boosted public and policy support for renewable energy, historically high electricity prices have swung Japanese public opinion firmly in favor of nuclear acceptance, according to Michiyo Miyamoto of the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Critics, however, note that renewables remain a more affordable and secure long-term solution.

Further south in Asia, Bangladesh is rushing to commission two new reactors built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear giant Rosatom, with plans to connect 300 megawatts of capacity to the national grid by summer to ease crippling domestic gas shortages. Vietnam signed an agreement with Moscow in March to develop two Russian-designed reactors, while the Philippines – which declared a national energy emergency earlier this year – is weighing plans to activate a half-built nuclear plant constructed after the 1973 oil crisis but never brought online. “The Iran war is providing a needed push for nuclear,” said Alvie Asuncion-Astronomo of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute.

Across Africa, the energy crisis triggered by the Iran conflict has reinvigorated long-dormant nuclear energy plans, with more than 20 of the continent’s 54 nations now advancing atomic energy projects. Global nuclear powers including the United States, Russia, China, France and South Korea have identified Africa as a key growth market for nuclear technology, and are pitching small modular reactors (SMRs) as a flexible solution to the continent’s widespread energy shortages. Unlike large conventional nuclear plants, SMRs offer a cheaper, more compact alternative that can be scaled to meet weak grid capacity.

While proponents frame SMRs as a faster path to nuclear deployment, projects still require years of planning and regulatory work: Kenya for example, which launched its first nuclear planning phase in 2009, targets bringing an SMR online only by 2034. Even so, African leaders frame nuclear power as an urgent strategic priority. “Nuclear energy is no longer a distant aspiration for African countries; it is a strategic necessity,” said Justus Wabuyabo of Kenya’s Nuclear Power and Energy Agency. Speaking at a March summit hosted by the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, Rwandan President Paul Kagame predicted Africa will become “one of the most important global markets” for small modular reactors in the coming decades. SMRs are seen as a particularly strong fit for Africa, as they can deliver low-emission baseload power that matches the continent’s rapidly rising electricity demand, addresses underdeveloped national grids, and reduces overreliance on expensive imported diesel. South Africa, which hosts the continent’s only operational nuclear plants, plans to grow nuclear’s share of its energy mix from roughly 5% today to 16% by 2040, with SMRs playing a central role.

The race to develop nuclear energy in Africa has also intensified great power competition between the United States and Russia, which are both vying for market share as leading nuclear exporters. Russia’s Rosatom already holds a dominant position, building Egypt’s first operational reactor and signing cooperation agreements with Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania and Niger covering everything from full-scale plant construction to research facilities and workforce training. The U.S., which has only secured commitments from Kenya and Ghana to join its American-led modular reactor initiative, is working to close the gap, hosting a high-level nuclear development conference in Nairobi last month alongside South Korea. “Washington is working with African nations to rapidly develop secure and safe civil nuclear reactors,” said Ryan Taugher of the U.S. State Department.

Despite the growing momentum for nuclear expansion, critics and experts continue to highlight the significant risks that accompany the technology. Beyond the persistent threats of catastrophic meltdowns and long-term radioactive waste management, nuclear development also carries proliferation risks, as civilian nuclear programs can provide a pathway to developing nuclear weapons. Advocacy groups also note that most countries remain reliant on imported enriched uranium for nuclear generation, keeping them exposed to global supply chain volatility. “Nuclear is very risky,” said Ayumi Fukakusa of Japanese environmental advocacy group Friends of the Earth Japan.

Critics add that because nuclear projects take decades to deliver, governments should prioritize rapid expansion of renewable energy to achieve long-term energy security. Bronson also notes that nuclear plants themselves are vulnerable targets during conflict, pointing to targeted attacks on reactors during both the ongoing Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a stark reminder of this risk. Even so, Bronson acknowledged that for many developing nations facing immediate fossil fuel disruptions, the tradeoffs are clear: “Countries are now weighing those kinds of risks against the other risks, which Asia and Africa are seeing first and foremost, about what happens when gas and oil stops.”

This reporting from the Associated Press, with contributions from correspondents based in Bangkok, Seoul, Tokyo and Hanoi, is supported by private foundation grants, with the AP retaining full editorial control over all content.