Across Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria, the North African Maghreb region is undergoing an unprecedented demographic transformation, as shifting social norms and mounting economic strain push growing numbers of couples to have fewer children, pushing regional fertility rates to all-time historic lows. This rapid decline is upending long-held cultural stereotypes of large, multi-child families that have long defined the region, mirroring similar global demographic shifts while unfolding at a faster, more sustained pace than many experts anticipated.
A new analysis from France’s National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) confirms the downward trend is both exceptionally sharp and likely permanent, a shift Tunisian leading demographer Mohamed Ali Ben Zina has described as “profound” in its long-term implications for the region. Official demographic data collected across the three countries underscores the scale of the change: since the 1970s, average fertility rates have dropped by more than half across the Maghreb.
As of 2024, Tunisia holds the lowest fertility rate in the region, with an estimated average of just 1.53 children per woman, down from 1.58 in 2023. Morocco follows with an average of 1.97 children per woman, while Algeria has the highest regional rate at 2.61.
Interviews with residents and experts across the region point to a tangled web of interconnected factors driving the shift. Leading demographic researcher Hassen Kassar, based in Tunisia, notes deep structural social changes are at the root of Tunisia’s particularly steep decline: growing urbanization and the modernization of family structures have naturally reduced preferences for large household sizes, he explains.
Generational shifts in outlook are striking. In Algiers, 66-year-old retired finance executive Said—who asked to not share his full name—grew up one of 10 children. “My father struggled constantly to put food on the table for all of us,” he recalled. “That experience is why I decided to stop at two children. What matters most is that they have enough to eat, proper clothes, and a stable, comfortable life.”
Economic precarity remains one of the most commonly cited drivers for smaller families. Chaimae Drioui, a researcher and professor at Morocco’s National Institute of Statistics and Applied Economics (INSEA), frames declining fertility as a logical, calculated choice for modern families adjusting to new economic realities. For generations, many low-income Maghreb households viewed children as a long-term financial investment, counting on adult children to support aging parents. That conventional wisdom has flipped completely in recent years, Drioui explains: “Today, raising a child costs far more than any immediate or long-term economic benefit he or she can provide.”
In Tunis, 42-year-old civil servant Nadia Jaouadi says she and her husband made the deliberate decision to remain childless 10 years ago, a choice she has never regretted. “There is nothing in this current climate that encourages people to have even one child,” she says, pointing to Tunisia’s ongoing deep economic struggles and unstable social environment as core reasons for her choice.
Beyond financial pressure, growing awareness of the mental and physical toll of parenthood is also pushing many women to limit or forgo having children. Zina, a 42-year-old Algerian woman who had her only daughter at age 38, says she has no plans for a second child: “After giving birth, I understood just how much of a strain motherhood puts on both your physical and mental health.” In Rabat, 38-year-old public sector manager Kaouthar—who also requested partial anonymity—says she has chosen to remain permanently childless: “I opted for a calm life, free from the constant worry and stress that comes with raising a child.”
Drioui emphasizes that expanding access to education and growing economic empowerment for women have been game-changing in dismantling traditional large-family norms. Longer educational pathways for women and rising professional ambitions have delayed childbearing and reduced the total number of children many choose to have, while rising divorce rates have also altered family planning patterns across the region.
This dramatic demographic shift comes with far-reaching long-term consequences, most immediately a rapidly aging population across the Maghreb. In Tunisia, adults aged 60 and older already make up 17 percent of the total population, equal to nearly 2 million residents. The trend is less advanced in the other two countries: in 2023, adults 60 and older made up 10 percent of Algeria’s population, while the figure hit 13.8 percent for Morocco in 2024.
A shrinking working-age population and growing cohort of retirees will put increasing strain on public pension systems and upend the balance between working contributors and retired beneficiaries, experts warn. If current trends hold and deaths begin to outnumber births, INED researchers note that only sustained immigration can prevent overall population decline. Foreign workers could also fill critical labour gaps as the working-age population shrinks.
But opening borders to large-scale immigration remains a politically and socially sensitive topic across all three Maghreb countries. Even so, some experts say the region will have little choice but to embrace migration from neighbouring regions. Kassar says the writing is already on the wall: “We will need sub-Saharan migrants to address these gaps.”
