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For German men’s soccer, another World Cup campaign has ended in another disappointing early exit — a bitter outcome for one of the sport’s most storied powerhouses, which had entered the tournament holding tentative hopes of lifting a fifth World Cup trophy and rebuilding its squandered reputation.

Unlike its 2018 and 2022 campaigns, Germany did manage to clear the group stage for the first time since its 2014 World Cup triumph. But that small milestone offered little consolation after Monday’s knockout round opener in Foxborough, Massachusetts, where unranked underdog Paraguay defeated the four-time champions on penalties to send them packing.

“We messed it up,” captain Joshua Kimmich told reporters immediately after the final whistle. The early elimination marked a familiar bitter pill for Kimmich, who was also part of the 2022 Qatar squad that crashed out in the group stage, and he offered no excuses for the underperformance.

“As a child, when you watched the national team during tournaments, it was always semifinals, finals, or world champions. There was always lots of success. You grew up with that, cheering them on,” the 31-year-old said, as he apologized to fans for failing to meet sky-high expectations. “All of us who were on the pitch should feel that, rather than looking to blame someone else. We blew it,” Kimmich stated, per reporting from German news agency dpa.

Head coach Julian Nagelsmann has become the central target of fan and media criticism following the exit, after a series of controversial selection decisions that have come under intense scrutiny. Most notably, Nagelsmann reversed months of public denials to recall veteran goalkeeper Manuel Neuer from international retirement just weeks before the tournament began.

The 40-year-old Neuer failed to live up to his legendary billing, with many analysts arguing he was directly at fault for Ecuador’s game-winning goal in the final group stage match — a result that only narrowly allowed Germany to advance. His selection came at the cost of Hoffenheim keeper Oliver Baumann, who many argued deserved the starting spot. “I gave it my all,” Neuer said of his performance.

Nagelsmann only yielded to public pressure late to hand striker Deniz Undav his first start against Paraguay, but the tactical move failed to deliver the intended impact. Undav, a Kurdish Yazidi player who had notched three goals and two assists coming off the bench in his first two tournament appearances, was unable to add to his score sheet against the underdogs. The coach also drew fire for leaving highly touted forward Nick Woltemade on the bench until the final minutes of extra time against Paraguay; Woltemade ended up as one of three German players who missed their penalties in the deciding shootout.

Nagelsmann had built high expectations ahead of the tournament, openly stating that Germany’s goal was to win the entire title. Four games later, that bold promise lies in tatters. Germany’s campaign ended with two wins — against first-time qualifier Curaçao and Ivory Coast — followed by back-to-back losses to Ecuador and Paraguay.

For Paraguay, the upset victory sparked wild celebrations across the capital city of Asunción. The result was one of the biggest upsets of this year’s tournament: few German fans could name a single Paraguayan player before kickoff, and most German supporters had already begun looking ahead to a projected round of 16 clash with defending champions France.

“You have to beat such a team,” Neuer said of Paraguay. “That’s a fact when you want to measure yourself against teams like France.”

Nagelsmann has publicly committed to staying on as head coach, though he faced additional criticism for his sharp, defensive responses to reporter questions after the match. German national team director Rudi Völler offered the coach a measured vote of confidence. “I’m still convinced that he’s probably the right one to continue,” Völler said. “It’s not only up to me.”

The disconnect between Germany’s inflated pre-tournament hopes and harsh on-pitch reality was perfectly highlighted by a widely mocked social media post from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “What a match, @DFB_Team! You thrilled our country with your commitment and team spirit at this World Cup. We’re proud of you,” Merz wrote on X shortly after the loss.

The post was immediately met with widespread ridicule from users across the political spectrum, who flooded the comment section asking “which match” Merz was referring to. The phrase “which match” quickly began trending on the platform. “I honestly don’t know which was worse. The match or this analysis,” wrote Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a senior politician from Germany’s Free Democratic Party.

Four-time World Cup champions Germany have crashed out of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the round of 32, falling to a historic penalty shootout defeat against underdog Paraguay that has sent shockwaves through global football and left the future of German head coach Julian Nagelsmann hanging by a thread.

Once a consistent powerhouse expected to challenge for major tournament titles, Germany’s fall from the upper echelon of men’s international football has been laid bare by this latest early exit. Including their history as West Germany, Germany hold four World Cup triumphs and another four runner-up finishes, alongside three European Championship titles from six final appearances. But since their last World Cup win in 2014, the four-time champions have now suffered two group-stage eliminations and one knockout-round exit in three consecutive World Cup tournaments.

Coming into the match, Paraguay ranked 41st in the FIFA global rankings, compared to Germany’s 10th place, and few gave the South American side a chance against the European giants. But Paraguay’s deep, organized, and resolute defensive block frustrated Germany from kickoff at the Boston venue, despite the four-time champions holding 75% of possession. Former Brighton and Ipswich Town forward Julio Enciso gave Paraguay a surprise opening lead, which held until Arsenal midfielder Kai Havertz leveled the score with a glancing header early in the second half.

Controversy struck moments later, when a headed goal from German defender Jonathan Tah was ruled out by VAR for an alleged foul by a teammate in the build-up, a decision that German observers have widely labeled as incorrect. The match stayed level at 1-1 through extra time, forcing a penalty shootout – a scenario Germany had never lost in World Cup history, with four previous shootout wins from four attempts.

That perfect record fell apart quickly. Havertz saw his opening penalty saved by Paraguay goalkeeper Carlos Gill, and Newcastle forward Nick Woltemade followed with another saved attempt. Though Paraguay squandered two spot-kicks of their own to throw Germany a lifeline, Tah blasted his effort over the crossbar, allowing Paraguay defender Jose Canale to convert the decisive penalty and seal a 4-3 shootout win for the underdogs.

The result leaves Paraguay advancing to the last 16, where they will face the winner of the round of 32 match between France and Sweden on Saturday. For Germany, it is another devastating early exit that has already sparked widespread calls for Nagelsmann, who took over as national team head coach in September 2023, to step down. The young coach, who won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich in 2022, only led Germany to a quarter-final finish when the nation hosted Euro 2024, and his position is now under extreme pressure.

Germany began their 2026 World Cup campaign with promising results, thrashing first-time qualifiers Curacao 7-1 before coming from behind to beat Ivory Coast 2-1 to secure top spot in their group, even falling 2-1 to Ecuador in the final group match with their knockout place already secure. But the manner of the defeat to Paraguay has left Nagelsmann fighting to keep his job, with social media already flooded with calls for former Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp to replace him.

Speaking after the final whistle, Nagelsmann acknowledged the disappointment of the result, admitting that Germany no longer belong in the conversation of global football’s first-tier nations. “When you exit the World Cup after you play Paraguay it is very bitter. It is very hurtful,” he said. “This is the third elimination in a row, so we are not part of the first-class teams any more.”

Reactions from former German players and pundits have been scathing, with most agreeing Nagelsmann must face consequences for the result. “If you consider the whole tournament, the way we played, it is a deserved loss,” former Germany defender Arne Friedrich told BBC Radio 5 Live. “Nagelsmann has to face the consequences. It is very disappointing, but that is sport. I would definitely say the journey continues without Nagelsmann.”

Former Germany midfielder Thomas Hitzlsperger added to the criticism on BBC One, saying: “It’s hard to explain how Germany got into this tournament with so many problems. It’s unacceptable. It doesn’t look good for Nagelsmann. In the last few months, he hasn’t dealt with situations well. With the expanded World Cup format, to go out so early would be tough to take for any big nation.”

Even before the Paraguay match, Nagelsmann faced criticism over his tactical approach, with Klopp – who was working as a pundit for German television during the tournament – saying Germany used “wrong methods” in their defeat to Ecuador. That warning was not heeded, as Paraguay’s deep defensive block and physical intensity again left Germany unable to break through.

Nagelsmann has repeatedly said he will not step down voluntarily, stating after the match: “I’m not someone who runs away. If we’re going to do a survey today in Germany, people are not going to speak about me positively obviously. I did feel the support in the stadium. I don’t think everyone in Germany will agree with me staying on and continuing as manager of the team. I’m not going to step back only because we are eliminated. If the DFB [German Football Association] want me to continue, I am going to continue. I know how the industry works and a lot of people now want me to leave. I want to continue if the German FA wants me.”

Prominent German football journalist Raphael Honigstein said the result will almost certainly end Nagelsmann’s tenure, telling BBC Radio 5 Live: “If I want to be cynical and sarcastic, all we would have earned is a right to get absolutely destroyed by France. You can get knocked out, but you can’t get knocked out against Paraguay at this stage in this manner. That is why this is not going to be a defeat without repercussions and an aftermath. If you look at the whole tournament, it just wasn’t enough. Germany has been poor. There were too many big calls not coming off for Julian Nagelsmann. It is going to be very hard for him to survive this. I think it will be over for him, I am afraid.”

Analysts and former players have begun questioning the long-term direction of German player development, pointing to a shift in priorities that has eroded the nation’s once-vaunted winning mentality. Hitzlsperger explained: “For a long time, player development in Germany has been all about passing, style of play and being tactically innovative but there’s one element that maybe we didn’t focus on enough, and that is having a bit of edge. We’ve lost that aura that made teams fear us. Other teams respect us but they don’t fear us any more. We’re no longer as difficult to beat, and we lack the physical presence we once had.

“For many years, Spain have been the team everyone wants to copy. It took many years but when we won the World Cup in 2014 we had great players but also a winning ethos. Now it seems we just focus on nice football. We need to start addressing this at academy level. What is football all about? It’s about winning, of course. The best example is Argentina: they have that perfect combination of being a team who can be nasty to play against but at the same time they have players who can create something out of nothing. We don’t have a Lionel Messi, of course, but we should be closer to where those top teams are.”

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — In one of the most stunning upsets in recent World Cup history, 26-year-old rookie goalkeeper Orlando Gill steered massive underdog Paraguay past four-time tournament champion Germany in a tense Round of 32 penalty shootout, sending the football powerhouse packing earlier than expected and cementing his name in World Cup Cinderella lore.

Gill, who stepped onto the World Cup’s global stage for the very first time this tournament, admitted he entered the knockout-round opener starstruck even as he acknowledged Paraguay’s status as heavy 5-to-1 underdogs against the favored German side. But when the final whistle of extra time sent the match to penalties, the 6-foot-6 shot-stopper, who plies his club trade with Argentina’s San Lorenzo, outperformed German legend and long-time world-class keeper Manuel Neuer to secure Paraguay’s spot in the Round of 16.

Gill’s path to this upset victory started in the group stage, where he notched clean sheets in a 1-0 win over Turkey and a scoreless draw against Australia, though he conceded four goals in a group-stage matchup with the United States. Against Germany, the underdog was thoroughly outplayed for most of 120 minutes of regulation and extra time: Germany held more than double the possession that Paraguay managed, and put 21 shots on goal compared to Paraguay’s seven. Even Gill described the relentless German pressure as something out of a nightmare.

“It was like a horror movie. Germans were popping up everywhere. Even I still can’t believe it,” Gill said in a post-match interview.

Standing opposite Gill was Neuer, a 30-plus year veteran competing in his fifth World Cup, who led Germany to its 2014 World Cup title, finished third in 2014 Ballon d’Or voting behind Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, and claimed two Champions League titles and 13 Bundesliga championships with Bayern Munich. Gill made clear he holds nothing but respect for the German icon, who he called an idol.

“Neuer is a world-class goalkeeper. I shared a shootout with him, and he managed to save a penalty, too. I have nothing but respect for an idol like him,” Gill said.

Gill only made one notable misstep in regulation, letting in Kai Havertz’s 54th-minute equalizer to force extra time. A late German would-be game-winner in the 12th minute of extra time was ultimately disallowed after VAR review found Waldemar Anton interfered with Gill before Jonathan Tah could put the ball in the net.

When the match moved to penalties, Gill seized the moment to earn his man of the match honors. He gave Paraguay an immediate advantage by stopping Havertz’s first spot kick with a quick deflection off his right arm. After Paraguay converted its first three penalties to jump to a 3-2 lead, Gill notched a second save, this time stopping Nick Woltemade’s attempt. That left Paraguay needing just one successful conversion from its final two kicks to win, but the underdogs stumbled: Antonino Sanabria sent his kick wide left, and Neuer stopped Fabian Balbuena’s attempt to force sudden death.

In the first round of sudden death, Tah sent his penalty over the crossbar, and Jose Canale beat Neuer to slot home the game-winning kick, sealing the historic upset.

Gill, who will next face the winner of the France vs. Sweden matchup on Saturday in Philadelphia, spoke of the result as proof that small underdog nations can compete with soccer’s powerhouses. “It showed that you shouldn’t speak too soon. This proves that Paraguay is capable of achieving great things. The opportunity was bound to come sooner or later,” he said. “Now, with a cool head, I’m going to sit down and analyze what we’ve achieved. We managed to hold on until the 120th minute, and luck was on our side during the shootout.”

For Germany, the shocking exit extends a more than decade-long streak of knockout-stage disappointment. The four-time champions have now exited in the group stage of the past two World Cups, and fell in the Round of 32 in this tournament, having not won a knockout match since their 2014 World Cup final victory.

“You talk about expectations: It is 11 or 12 years and we have come up short. It’s not enough for German football,” Germany head coach Julian Nagelsmann said after the defeat.

Midfielder Nadiem Amiri acknowledged the squad has a talented core of young players that could deliver results in future tournaments, but said that was little comfort in the immediate aftermath of the upset.

“But in the moment to think about the future is, I think, the wrong decision. I feel for everybody, very sad. It was a shocking end from the game. At the moment, it’s very difficult to find the right words,” Amiri said.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first iteration of the tournament expanded to 48 teams and hosted across North America, is on track to become the highest-grossing sports betting event in U.S. history, with major sportsbook operators reporting wagering volumes that have already surpassed initial optimistic projections.Industry leaders note that a rare confluence of favorable factors laid the groundwork for the unprecedented betting activity. Unlike past World Cups held in distant time zones that forced most American viewers to watch matches overnight, this year’s tournament falls entirely within North American viewing hours, allowing fans to catch live games during daytime and early evening slots. Compounding this accessibility is the strength of the U.S. men’s national team, widely regarded as the most talented squad the country has ever fielded.After the U.S. claimed back-to-back opening wins to secure their group stage top spot, fan excitement and betting volume surged far beyond even the most optimistic forecasts from operators. Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer trading at Caesars Sportsbook, confirmed that total handle has already exceeded the company’s pre-tournament expectations. Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook operations at DraftKings, noted that the 48-team tournament’s wagering numbers already rival those of the annual NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, better known as March Madness — one of the most popular betting events on the U.S. sports calendar. “It could be the biggest event of the year when it’s all said and done,” Avello said. “March Madness takes place over three weeks and rakes in enormous amounts of money, but this is getting there. It blows the Super Bowl away — that’s a single game on a single day. This event is way bigger than that.”The U.S. team’s undefeated early run has only grown fan and bettor enthusiasm heading into the knockout stage. The Americans kick off their single-elimination campaign Wednesday night in Santa Clara, California against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM Sportsbook, predicts the match will become the most heavily wagered-on soccer match in the company’s history. “In this World Cup, all three of our most bet-on games have been the three USA games,” Cipollini explained. “This game is shaping up to be a perfect storm: the USA looks very good, and there’s a tremendous amount of hype surrounding the team.”Heading into the knockout round, France, led by global superstar Kylian Mbappé, is listed as the tournament favorite by all three major operators, with defending champion Argentina — captained by Lionel Messi — close behind. The two sides are positioned on opposite sides of the knockout bracket, meaning a potential final would be a rematch of the 2022 World Cup title match, one of the most iconic finals in tournament history. At BetMGM, France holds 15.3% of all future bet tickets and accounts for 20.4% of total money wagered on an outright winner, just barely behind Spain, which holds 20.5% of the total handle, most of which was placed before the tournament began.But longtime sports handicapper Bruce Marshall warned against locking in a France-Argentina final just yet. “I could see seven or eight different teams winning this whole thing,” Marshall noted. “So any favorite at this stage doesn’t offer a lot of value.”As is typical for major international tournaments, U.S. bettors are flocking to long-shot underdogs, putting down small wagers in hopes of massive payouts. Bettors are increasingly putting small stakes on low-ranked teams with very long odds, a trend that creates unexpected liability for sportsbooks. “Bettors like to take a shot for a small amount of money and put it on those teams,” Avello said. “Of course, that risk is high for us because it doesn’t take much. A $5 bet on Congo would pay out $5,000. You take quite a few of those and the liability gets up pretty high.”Marshall highlighted Colombia (33-1 outright odds at BetMGM) and Switzerland (66-1) as underrated squads that offer strong betting value. “Colombia looks really dangerous, and they’re getting a lot of support,” he said. “They played their first couple of group stage games in Mexico, which were basically like home games for them. The one nobody’s talking about is Switzerland, and they’re one of these teams that remind me of a club side. I say that in positive terms because they’re very familiar with one another. A lot of these World Cup teams are sort of thrown together and haven’t played much with each other. Switzerland’s got guys who’ve played 80, 100 games together.”If the U.S. pulls off a historic deep run and ultimately wins the tournament, sportsbooks could face significant financial losses. The U.S. team’s odds have already shortened dramatically from 50-1 before the tournament to 25-1 at BetMGM, 30-1 at Caesars, and 33-1 at DraftKings. “If the U.S. would’ve limped into the knockout round, our liability probably wouldn’t be as high as it is,” Cipollini said. “But the fact that they’ve looked good, there’s a lot of people that think, ‘They do have a chance.’ It’s on home soil. It’s easy to talk yourself into something we all kind of want to happen.”In an unexpected off-the-wall trend, a 1997 episode of *The Simpsons* has driven a surge of bets on a potential tournament final between Mexico and Portugal, after some fans claimed the show predicted the 2026 matchup. The episode never mentions the World Cup or 2026, but that has not stopped bettors from placing wagers, leaving sportsbooks holding unexpected liability for the unlikely outcome. “We have got a liability on that,” Bickerdike confirmed.