The 2026 FIFA World Cup, the first iteration of the tournament expanded to 48 teams and hosted across North America, is on track to become the highest-grossing sports betting event in U.S. history, with major sportsbook operators reporting wagering volumes that have already surpassed initial optimistic projections.Industry leaders note that a rare confluence of favorable factors laid the groundwork for the unprecedented betting activity. Unlike past World Cups held in distant time zones that forced most American viewers to watch matches overnight, this year’s tournament falls entirely within North American viewing hours, allowing fans to catch live games during daytime and early evening slots. Compounding this accessibility is the strength of the U.S. men’s national team, widely regarded as the most talented squad the country has ever fielded.After the U.S. claimed back-to-back opening wins to secure their group stage top spot, fan excitement and betting volume surged far beyond even the most optimistic forecasts from operators. Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer trading at Caesars Sportsbook, confirmed that total handle has already exceeded the company’s pre-tournament expectations. Johnny Avello, director of sportsbook operations at DraftKings, noted that the 48-team tournament’s wagering numbers already rival those of the annual NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, better known as March Madness — one of the most popular betting events on the U.S. sports calendar. “It could be the biggest event of the year when it’s all said and done,” Avello said. “March Madness takes place over three weeks and rakes in enormous amounts of money, but this is getting there. It blows the Super Bowl away — that’s a single game on a single day. This event is way bigger than that.”The U.S. team’s undefeated early run has only grown fan and bettor enthusiasm heading into the knockout stage. The Americans kick off their single-elimination campaign Wednesday night in Santa Clara, California against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM Sportsbook, predicts the match will become the most heavily wagered-on soccer match in the company’s history. “In this World Cup, all three of our most bet-on games have been the three USA games,” Cipollini explained. “This game is shaping up to be a perfect storm: the USA looks very good, and there’s a tremendous amount of hype surrounding the team.”Heading into the knockout round, France, led by global superstar Kylian Mbappé, is listed as the tournament favorite by all three major operators, with defending champion Argentina — captained by Lionel Messi — close behind. The two sides are positioned on opposite sides of the knockout bracket, meaning a potential final would be a rematch of the 2022 World Cup title match, one of the most iconic finals in tournament history. At BetMGM, France holds 15.3% of all future bet tickets and accounts for 20.4% of total money wagered on an outright winner, just barely behind Spain, which holds 20.5% of the total handle, most of which was placed before the tournament began.But longtime sports handicapper Bruce Marshall warned against locking in a France-Argentina final just yet. “I could see seven or eight different teams winning this whole thing,” Marshall noted. “So any favorite at this stage doesn’t offer a lot of value.”As is typical for major international tournaments, U.S. bettors are flocking to long-shot underdogs, putting down small wagers in hopes of massive payouts. Bettors are increasingly putting small stakes on low-ranked teams with very long odds, a trend that creates unexpected liability for sportsbooks. “Bettors like to take a shot for a small amount of money and put it on those teams,” Avello said. “Of course, that risk is high for us because it doesn’t take much. A $5 bet on Congo would pay out $5,000. You take quite a few of those and the liability gets up pretty high.”Marshall highlighted Colombia (33-1 outright odds at BetMGM) and Switzerland (66-1) as underrated squads that offer strong betting value. “Colombia looks really dangerous, and they’re getting a lot of support,” he said. “They played their first couple of group stage games in Mexico, which were basically like home games for them. The one nobody’s talking about is Switzerland, and they’re one of these teams that remind me of a club side. I say that in positive terms because they’re very familiar with one another. A lot of these World Cup teams are sort of thrown together and haven’t played much with each other. Switzerland’s got guys who’ve played 80, 100 games together.”If the U.S. pulls off a historic deep run and ultimately wins the tournament, sportsbooks could face significant financial losses. The U.S. team’s odds have already shortened dramatically from 50-1 before the tournament to 25-1 at BetMGM, 30-1 at Caesars, and 33-1 at DraftKings. “If the U.S. would’ve limped into the knockout round, our liability probably wouldn’t be as high as it is,” Cipollini said. “But the fact that they’ve looked good, there’s a lot of people that think, ‘They do have a chance.’ It’s on home soil. It’s easy to talk yourself into something we all kind of want to happen.”In an unexpected off-the-wall trend, a 1997 episode of *The Simpsons* has driven a surge of bets on a potential tournament final between Mexico and Portugal, after some fans claimed the show predicted the 2026 matchup. The episode never mentions the World Cup or 2026, but that has not stopped bettors from placing wagers, leaving sportsbooks holding unexpected liability for the unlikely outcome. “We have got a liability on that,” Bickerdike confirmed.
Sportsbooks say World Cup betting has surged past expectations, with US hype driving action
