分类： politics

As Hungarians prepare to cast their ballots in a landmark general election on Sunday, the nation stands at a pivotal crossroads. After 16 years of unbroken rule under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the outcome of this vote has the potential to upend the country’s domestic trajectory and send ripples of change across Europe, transatlantic relations, and global geopolitics centered on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Most leading public opinion surveys point to a narrow but clear advantage for challenger Péter Magyar, the founder of the grassroots Tisza party, who launched his political movement after splitting from Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party. Yet in the final hours of campaigning, the long-serving incumbent showed no sign of backing down, striking a defiant tone before thousands of gathered supporters in Budapest’s Castle Hill. “We are going to achieve such a victory that will surprise everyone, perhaps even ourselves,” Orbán told the crowd, leaning into the familiar, polarizing campaign themes that have defined his political career for over a decade.

Voting will open at 6 a.m. local time (4 a.m. GMT) and close at 7 p.m. local time, with preliminary results expected to begin trickling in later that evening. In the days leading up to the vote, Orbán amplified rhetorical tensions, claiming the opposition would “stop at nothing to seize power.” In response, Magyar issued a plea to supporters, urging them not to cave to what he called “Fidesz pressure and blackmail.”

During Orbán’s 16 years in office, the European Parliament has repeatedly labeled his administration a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.” Magyar and Tisza have centered their campaign on a promise of “regime change”: a full reset of Hungary’s strained relationship with the European Union and an end to Orbán’s close bilateral ties to Moscow, a policy that has put Budapest at odds with its NATO and EU allies.

In a sign of shifting momentum, Magyar’s final campaign rally in Debrecen, Hungary’s second-largest city, drew a far larger crowd than Orbán’s closing event in the capital. The incumbent, however, retains high-profile international backing: former U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly urged Hungarian voters to turn out for Orbán, whom he called his “true friend, fighter, and WINNER.”

Addressing supporters on the final Saturday of campaigning, Orbán doubled down on his core messaging targeting Brussels and Kyiv, reiterating his hardline stance that “we don’t give our children, we don’t give our weapons and we don’t give our money” to Ukraine. The message resonated with his base, with long-time Fidesz supporter Johanna telling reporters she backed Orbán’s policies on family protection and his approach to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

While Orbán has secured four consecutive election victories, political analysts broadly agree that a fifth term is far from guaranteed. Hungary is currently grappling with persistent economic stagnation, and Fidesz has been battered by a string of high-profile corruption scandals in recent months. Most notable is the public revelation that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó held regular off-the-record talks with his Russian counterpart before and after every EU summit, a detail Szijjártó has since confirmed.

Orbán’s continued veto of a €90 billion EU aid package for Ukraine has left his European allies furious, deepening the rift between Budapest and the bloc. Róbert László, an election specialist at Budapest-based independent think tank Political Capital, notes that Hungary’s three most reputable polling firms all point to a “huge lead” for Tisza. Contrary to most analysts’ predictions that Fidesz would close the gap as the election neared, László says that narrowing has failed to materialize.

Magyar has framed his campaign around the need for a two-thirds supermajority in Hungary’s 199-seat parliament — not just a simple absolute majority — to roll back the sweeping constitutional changes Fidesz enacted over the past 16 years that weakened judicial independence, consolidated state control over media, and centralized power in the ruling party. Hungary consistently ranks near the bottom of Transparency International’s annual Corruption Perceptions Index, a reflection of widespread concerns about graft in the Orbán administration.

László says the most likely outcome is a comfortable absolute majority for Tisza that falls just short of the two-thirds threshold, though he adds that a supermajority cannot be ruled out entirely. In recent weeks, current and former figures from Hungarian law enforcement, the military, and the business community have all publicly broken with Fidesz, a shift László calls a clear sign that the national mood has turned definitively against Orbán.

Hungary’s complex electoral system has long benefited Fidesz, a fact Orbán himself has acknowledged. Of the 199 parliamentary seats, 106 are filled by direct constituency elections, while the remaining 93 are allocated via national party lists, with votes open to Hungarians living both at home and abroad. Votes from losing parties in constituency races, as well as excess votes from winning candidates, are transferred to the national list, a mechanism that has historically delivered additional seats to Fidesz. Parties must clear a 5% national vote threshold to gain any parliamentary representation.

One of the only polling firms that still projects a potential Orbán victory is the Nézőpont Institute. Its director, Ágoston Mráz, points to 22 competitive “battleground constituencies” that will decide the race. If Fidesz can win a majority of these swing seats, Mráz says Orbán could still secure a fifth term. Because 5% of votes in these key districts will not be counted immediately, a final official result may take several days to emerge.

Mráz also argues that Fidesz’s support is undercounted in most polls, thanks to a large bloc of “hidden voters.” “Conservative voters are not normally as enthusiastic or their self-confidence is probably limited. They are more hidden voters, they are not ready to answer questions of pollsters, and among the Fidesz voters there are more, in percentage, blue-collar voters than in the Tisza party voter camp,” he explained.

The northwestern city of Györ, Hungary’s sixth-largest city located near the Slovak border, has emerged as a critical battleground that will likely shape the final result. Orbán put the city in the national spotlight last month when he lost his temper amid jeers from protesters, accusing the crowd of “pushing Ukrainian interests.” Just weeks later, Magyar drew a massive crowd for a rally in Györ’s central square, showcasing his strength in the once-safe Fidesz area.

For many young and first-time voters in the city, ousting Fidesz is the top priority. Gergely Németh, a 20-year-old university student, told reporters he and his family have faced persistent financial hardship under Orbán’s policies, even with the prime minister’s widely promoted pro-family tax breaks for households with multiple children. “I think it’s not the man, Péter Magyar, who’s most important. More important is that someone changes these politicians in the parliament,” Németh said, adding that nearly every young person he knows supports removing Fidesz from power.

Györ has been led by an independent mayor and deputy mayor for the past two years, though Fidesz still holds a majority on the local city council. Deputy Mayor Roland Kósa, an independent, has criticized Fidesz for its arrogant approach to power, saying that even after independent leaders were elected, “Fidesz basically looked through us and said and thought we do not exist – this is still their city, this is still their country.” Kósa accuses the ruling party of squandering massive public funds and years of economic opportunity in the city.

Magyar’s political ascent has been built on a broad, cross-partisan appeal. A former center-right Fidesz insider who broke with the party just two years ago, he has attracted disaffected voters from across the ideological spectrum, allowing even voters who are skeptical of him personally to back Tisza as a unified movement to oust Orbán.

Unlike Orbán, who built his opposition movement decades ago through local “citizen circles,” Magyar built Tisza from the ground up through a network of local “Tisza islands” — small activist cells embedded in Fidesz’s traditional strongholds. While the model is not new, it has grown into a robust national movement that has challenged Fidesz’s decades-long hold on local political organizing. Unlike many established opposition parties, Tisza’s candidates are largely non-career politicians: the party’s slate includes practicing surgeons, public school teachers, and local business leaders with direct experience addressing gaps in Hungary’s healthcare and education systems.

This election has defied many conventional European campaign norms. Notably, the two leading candidates have refused to face off in a nationally televised debate, with the entire race being fought out on social media and in open-air rallies across the country. While other minor parties are competing in the election, only Fidesz and Tisza hold enough support to win parliamentary power.

Outwardly, Fidesz officials maintain they are confident of victory, but Balázs Orbán, the party’s political director, has already pre-emptively suggested that the opposition would refuse to accept a Fidesz win. Mráz, from Nézőpont Institute, shares concerns about post-election unrest, warning that Tisza supporters may reject an Orbán victory by claiming widespread fraud. “I’m really afraid of getting violence on the streets because tension is in the air. I hope very much that every politician will be smart enough to help voters avoid violence on the street,” he said.

So far, large opposition gatherings have remained peaceful: at least 100,000 anti-Fidesz supporters packed Budapest’s Heroes’ Square on Friday for a pre-election concert and rally, with no reported incidents. Magyar has repeatedly urged his supporters to remain calm and avoid falling for any provocations that could lead to unrest, regardless of the final outcome.

On the eve of Hungary’s most consequential national election in over a decade, the country’s two largest political factions wrapped up chaotic, high-stakes campaign seasons Saturday with closing rallies that laid bare the stark divides shaping Sunday’s vote. For incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the ballot box marks the greatest existential threat to his 16-year grip on national power, as challenger Péter Magyar’s upstart center-right Tisza Party has surged to double-digit leads in most independent public opinion surveys. A Tisza victory would oust Orbán in one of the most dramatic political upsets in modern Hungarian history, though many analysts caution the final result could be far closer than polling suggests, noting Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party retains a deeply loyal, highly mobilized base across rural Hungary.

Magyar, a 45-year-old lawyer and one-time insider within Fidesz’s own political circle, has spent the past two years crisscrossing the country, stopping in hundreds of small towns and rural communities to court voters who have long backed Orbán. Saturday, he brought his closing argument to Debrecen, Hungary’s second-largest city and a longstanding Fidesz stronghold, where thousands of cheering Tisza supporters packed University Square to hear him speak.

Striking an optimistic, defiant tone, Magyar framed Sunday’s vote as a defining turning point for the nation. “This election will enter Hungarian history books as the day of resurrection, the renewal of the Hungarian nation, and of the real change of regime,” he told the crowd. Rejecting the divisive rhetoric that has defined Orbán’s tenure, Magyar extended an olive branch to Fidesz voters, promising his first act in office would be to pursue national reconciliation. “As the winner of the election, we will have to extend a hand to our fellow countrymen,” he said, outlining a plan to reunite a country split by years of polarized rule.

Addressing one of the core pillars of his campaign, Magyar reaffirmed his commitment to keeping Hungary anchored in the European Union, reversing Orbán’s gradual shift toward closer political and economic ties to Moscow. As supporters waved Hungarian flags and chanted “Európa! Európa!”, he declared, “many millions” of voters would confirm on Sunday that “Hungary’s place was, is, and will be in Europe.”

Annamária Matkovics, a 50-year-old farmer and local Tisza activist in the eastern Hungarian town of Balmazújváros, who joined the party when it launched in 2024, said even in traditional Fidesz heartland, discontent with the incumbent has reached a breaking point. While many voters report fears of retaliation — including losing their state-supported jobs — if they are caught backing the opposition, Matkovics said most dissidents are still prepared to vote for change. “When we’re campaigning on the street, people tell us that they’re worried that they’ll lose their jobs if they don’t vote for Fidesz, and they’re still planning to vote for Tisza,” she said. “They’ve had enough of the division.”

A few hundred kilometers away in Budapest, Orbán closed his campaign to thousands of supporters on the city’s historic Castle Hill, doubling down on the core message that has defined his reelection bid: framing the election as a choice between stability and risky change, amid what he calls a wave of external threats endangering the Hungarian people. With Russia’s ongoing full-scale war in neighboring Ukraine top of mind, Orbán warned the country could not afford to hand power to an inexperienced newcomer.

“We are in an age of danger,” Orbán told the crowd. “Hungary is facing serious challenges. We need to say no to major power groups in the world in order to defend ourselves, and this requires knowledge, experience and routine. Now is not the time to take risks, to change, to renew and to adventure. Now we need to protect and secure what we have.”

Orbán’s campaign has been hobbled by multiple headwinds this cycle: stubbornly poor economic performance that has driven high inflation and rising living costs for ordinary Hungarians, growing public scrutiny of his administration’s increasingly close ties to the Kremlin, and persistent allegations of systemic corruption that benefit a small circle of political allies close to the prime minister. To shore up support, Orbán has leaned heavily on his high-profile relationship with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly endorsed his reelection. Earlier this week, U.S. Vice President JD Vance traveled to Budapest for a two-day campaign stop, headlining a publicly funded rally alongside Orbán to boost his bid for a fifth term.

In contrast to Orbán’s focus on external threats and geopolitical risk, Magyar has centered his campaign on bread-and-butter issues that directly impact Hungarian households: soaring inflation, skyrocketing living costs, and the crumbling state of public healthcare and transportation infrastructure. He has also made a core campaign promise to root out what he calls endemic government corruption that has enriched a tiny elite at the public’s expense — allegations Orbán has repeatedly denied. With turnout expected to be high across the country, all eyes now turn to Sunday, when Hungarian voters will decide whether to extend Orbán’s 16-year tenure or usher in the most sweeping political change the country has seen in a generation.

As Germany prepares for regional elections this September, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is positioned to make unprecedented political history, holding a strong lead in opinion polls in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt that could deliver the party its first outright state-level majority since the end of World War II.

At a party conference held this weekend in Magdeburg, the state’s capital, AfD delegates formally adopted a 150-page government platform widely labeled as radical and centered on pro-ethnic German policy priorities. Leading the party’s state ticket is Ulrich Siegmund, a popular TikTok political personality who received a standing ovation from conference attendees, framed the upcoming vote as a turning point for not just Saxony-Anhalt, but the entire nation and beyond.

“The whole of Germany is watching this historic election. Parts of Europe are watching this historic election. Parts of the world are watching this historic election, because from here, finally, the political turnaround can also happen here in Germany,” Siegmund told the crowd. He emphasized that AfD is the only major party willing to openly address widespread public grievances, stating, “that we don’t feel safe anymore, that we scarcely feel at home anymore, that we don’t recognise our homeland anymore.” Closing his remarks, he issued a rallying cry: “Let’s take back our country.”

The party’s policy platform lays out sweeping changes for Saxony-Anhalt, with hardline restrictions on immigration and targeted support for ethnically German families at its core. A central pillar of the plan is aggressive implementation of deportation and “remigration” policies — a controversial term referring to the mass relocation of people with non-German backgrounds, which has been openly embraced by the party following a 2024 leak revealing senior AfD figures attended a private discussion on mass expulsion proposals. Notably, the platform even calls for an end to recognizing Ukrainians as war refugees and demands their remigration, a policy that directly clashes with the federal German government’s staunch support for Kyiv amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Beyond immigration, the platform takes a strongly pro-Russia stance, calling for an immediate end to energy sanctions on Moscow, expanded Russian language education in German schools, and argues that the current Berlin-led anti-Russia policy runs counter to German national interests. To address Saxony-Anhalt’s status as Germany’s oldest state with a rapidly aging population, AfD proposes tax breaks for large ethnically German families and universal free childcare, framed as a push to prevent what the party calls the “extinction of the German people.” The platform also enshrines a conservative vision of the nuclear family as “a father, a mother and as many children as possible,” blames low birth rates on what it terms “sexual deviations and non-reproductive lifestyles,” and proposes a ban on gay pride flags in public schools. Additional proposals include cutting public funding for regional public broadcasting.

While some of AfD’s proposals require federal approval and cannot be implemented at the state level alone, a large portion of the platform’s provisions are feasible under state governance. Political opponents have issued stark warnings about the party’s agenda. Eva von Angern, parliamentary group leader for the left-wing Die Linke party in Saxony-Anhalt, described AfD’s plans as a “nightmare scenario for Saxony-Anhalt and for our democracy.” She accused the party of advancing an authoritarian vision that would severely erode fundamental civil rights, saying, “the public must be made aware of the AfD’s ‘ugly truths’ and the ‘very negative consequences for them personally if the AfD were to govern in Saxony-Anhalt.’”

The AfD has held major support in former East German states including Saxony-Anhalt for years, but the party has seen rising support across the entire country in recent cycles. In last year’s federal elections, AfD secured a second-place finish, winning a historic 20.8% of the national vote and 152 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag. Domestically, intelligence officials have flagged the party as an extremist threat: the Saxony-Anhalt state branch of AfD was formally classified as a “far-right extremist organisation” by the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution in 2023, and the national party received the same classification from federal domestic intelligence last year. That federal classification drew criticism from the White House, and AfD has since mounted a legal challenge, resulting in a temporary court injunction that bars use of the label until a final ruling is issued.

Outside the Magdeburg party conference this weekend, hundreds of demonstrators gathered to protest the AfD and its agenda. Political observers across Europe now view the Saxony-Anhalt election and the party’s newly released platform as a clear indication of the national agenda AfD would pursue if it continues to gain power across Germany.

LONDON – A mass demonstration against the UK government’s controversial classification of the protest group Palestine Action as a terrorist organization ended with over 200 people taken into custody by London’s Metropolitan Police on Saturday.

Law enforcement confirmed that 212 protesters, ranging in age from 27 to 82 years old, were detained on charges of supporting an outlawed proscribed group. The demonstration was organized by Defend Our Juries, a grassroots group that had been publicly warned ahead of time by police that any participation in support of Palestine Action would lead to arrest. Hundreds of demonstrators converged on central London’s iconic Trafalgar Square, many carrying handmade placards reading statements such as “I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action” to signal their solidarity with the banned group.

The legal battle over the government’s ban has been fraught with tension since February, when Britain’s High Court ruled that the Home Office’s decision to designate Palestine Action as a terrorist organization was unlawful. Despite the ruling, the ban remained in effect while the government pursues an appeal to the higher courts, creating a confusing legal landscape that left protesters vulnerable to arrest despite the original ruling against the ban.

Among the high-profile participants was Robert Del Naja, a founding member of the renowned British trip-hop collective Massive Attack. Del Naja told reporters he chose to openly hold a pro-Palestine Action sign despite the clear risk of arrest, which could impact his ability to cross international borders for work and travel. “I thought this is ridiculous and then the police making that U-turn to arrest people again, I thought that is even more ridiculous,” he said, explaining his decision to participate. “So I’m going to hold a sign today.”

As officers led detained protesters away to waiting police vans, crowd members jeered law enforcement, chanting “shame on you” and calling out the arrest of elderly and disabled demonstrators. When police escorted an elderly protester using a walking stick to custody, one attendee shouted to officers, “Yeah, she looks like a terrorist, doesn’t she mate?” highlighting what protesters see as the excessive and unreasonable nature of the government’s crackdown on pro-Palestine advocacy.