Ten years to the day after the United Kingdom’s fateful 52%-48% vote to leave the European Union, the seismic ripple effects of that decision continue to reshape British politics, bringing the country its seventh prime minister since the 2016 referendum and leaving a legacy of division, economic stagnation and eroded public trust.
On June 23, 2016, after 47 years of EU membership, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron gambled on a public referendum to settle internal party tensions over Europe, campaigning to remain in the bloc. When results favored exit, Cameron resigned within 24 hours, opening a decade of political chaos that no successive leader has managed to resolve. The latest casualty is Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who announced his resignation Monday after two years in office, pointing to a sluggish economy, dysfunctional governing institutions and a deeply divided, disillusioned electorate — problems widely traced at least in part to Brexit’s ongoing fallout.
The 2016 Leave campaign capitalized on broad public discontent with the status quo, selling Brexit with the emotional rallying cry of “take back control” over British laws, borders and economic policy. Leading Leave figure Boris Johnson, who would later become prime minister, framed the exit as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to embrace a brighter, independent future, telling supporters just weeks before the vote: “We can see the sunlit meadows beyond. I believe we would be mad not to take this once-in-a-lifetime chance to walk through that door.”
Historians trace the Leave victory to a tangled mix of grievances: opposition to perceived unrestricted immigration, anger at Brussels-imposed regulations, and a powerful strain of nostalgia for an imagined, glorified British past. Margaret MacMillan, emeritus history professor at the University of Toronto, noted that Leave campaigners never clearly articulated what Brexit would actually deliver, leaning instead on vague nationalist sentiment. “It was against what people saw as unrestricted immigration. It was against what they saw as EU regulations. And then there was this mix of nostalgia — ‘We fought alone in the Second World War.’ Which was of course not true,” MacMillan explained.
That lack of clarity set the stage for years of unmet promises and political turmoil. Bold Leave pledges of tighter immigration controls, lucrative independent trade deals, increased funding for public services and an end to burdensome European regulation quickly collided with hard reality. The U.K. did not formally complete its exit until January 31, 2020, following years of acrimonious divorce negotiations with the EU, and an 11-month transition period before the final split was cemented.
Cameron’s successor, Theresa May, stepped down in 2019 after failing to secure exit terms that could win approval from a deeply divided Parliament. Johnson took over, promising to “get Brexit done” and ultimately negotiated a slim trade deal that left U.K.-EU relations strained and frozen for years. He was forced out of office by the Conservative Party in mid-2022 amid overlapping financial and ethical scandals. His replacement Liz Truss resigned after just 49 days in office following a disastrous economic agenda that crashed global markets. Next came Rishi Sunak, who eased tensions with Brussels but declined to make major structural changes to the Brexit framework. Starmer, who won power after Sunak, promised a “reset” of Brexit policy but also ruled out returning to the EU’s tariff-free, frictionless single market. Now, as Starmer prepares to hand over power, Brexit remains unresolved, lingering as un finished business for the country.
Far from settling long-running intra-party tensions over Europe, as Cameron hoped it would, the referendum shattered Britain’s traditional political ecosystem. “The people who obsessed about it still obsess about it. Britain’s problems have continued,” historian Anthony Seldon told Times Radio. Within the Conservative Party, hardline Brexiteers pushed out moderate lawmakers who favored a softer exit and closer EU ties. Even the traditionally pro-EU Labour Party has been split, with grassroots members pushing for closer alignment or even full rejoin, while senior leaders like Starmer have refused to reopen debate over the 2016 decision to avoid reigniting old conflicts.
A decade on, millions of voters have abandoned Britain’s two major mainstream parties for smaller, more extreme alternatives. The biggest political beneficiary has been Nigel Farage, the long-time Brexit campaigner who now leads the hard-right Reform UK. After campaigning for exit, Farage shifted to claiming Brexit had been betrayed by mainstream politicians, reorienting his anti-immigration message from EU free movement to targeting asylum seekers crossing the English Channel in small boats. Today, Reform UK consistently leads national opinion polls.
Economically, Britain has seen a decade of sluggish growth, with new trade barriers between the U.K. and its closest European neighbor hitting business activity. While Brexit is not the sole cause of slow growth — the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing Middle East conflicts have all contributed — experts agree Brexit has amplified existing economic pressures. Compounding this, successive leaders have avoided being honest with the public about the trade-offs required by Brexit, leaving voters deeply disappointed.
“ We just haven’t had politicians who’ve been upfront with the public about the fact that when they get into power, they won’t be able to have no increases in taxes, no increases in debt, and better public services all in the same breath,” said Hannah White, director of the independent Institute for Government think tank. “And so people are disappointed.”
Ironically, Brexit also failed to resolve the immigration debate it centered. Net migration to the U.K. hit a record high of more than 900,000 in 2023 before falling to 71,000 last year, and public debate over immigration has only grown more polarised. That polarisation has fueled rising public cynicism, collapsed trust in political institutions, and even eroded long-held British norms against political violence. Agitators have repeatedly incited anti-immigration street violence after crimes committed by — or falsely rumoured to be committed by — immigrants.
Chris Grey, an academic who has extensively studied Brexit’s fallout, noted that a long-standing line between peaceful political debate and street violence has eroded, a shift that traces its origins to the 2016 referendum. “In the past, Britain had a firm barrier between the conventional dominant politics of talk and argument, and what was seen as beyond the pale: violence on the streets,” Grey said. “I think that boundary is being eroded. And I think that did to some large extent begin with Brexit.”
Today, polling shows growing “Bregret” among British voters, with a recent Ipsos survey finding 52% of respondents now support rejoining the EU, compared to just 33% who oppose it. Hundreds of pro-rejoin activists marched through London Saturday, waving EU blue-and-yellow flags, though turnout was far smaller than the mass protests seen at the height of Brexit negotiations. Most voters now say they simply want to move on from the debate.
Even so, Brexit remains a political minefield that most leaders are afraid to address. And if Britain wanted to reverse course and rejoin the bloc, it would face a long, difficult negotiation with a deeply wary EU. Until British politicians are willing to confront Brexit’s full legacy, Grey said the country will remain stuck in a cycle of persistent low-grade crisis. He compared the U.K. to a person living with a chronic, energy-sapping illness that they refuse to get treated.
“A chronic thing, in this case perhaps not incurable,” Grey said. “But it’s just that they don’t fancy going to the doctor because they know it’s not going to be very nice.”
