分类： politics

Hours before American voters cast their ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, the Trump administration carried out a previously unannounced targeted aerial strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, a strategic territory situated in the critical Strait of Hormuz, according to an exclusive initial report from the Wall Street Journal. The operation, which the U.S. military chose not to publicly acknowledge, was framed by an anonymous U.S. official as a purely defensive response to recent Iranian surface-to-air missile deployments targeting American forces that have been engaged in hostilities against Iran since February of that year. Per the Journal’s corroborated reporting, the immediate trigger for the Monday night strike came when a unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a surface-to-air missile at a patrolling U.S. fighter jet, prompting the aircraft to return fire in self-defense before the broader targeted operation on Qeshm Island was executed. The administration has deliberately kept its recent string of limited, small-scale strikes on Iranian territory under wraps, the Journal confirmed, in a deliberate effort to avoid signaling to domestic and international audiences that it intended to restart large-scale, open combat operations against the Iranian state. This development directly contradicts public assurances made by former President Trump just one month prior, when he publicly pledged that the United States would not launch any attacks on Iran in the lead-up to the midterms, and claimed that bilateral talks between the two nations were producing “productive discussions.” Vice President JD Vance also echoed this tone of cautious optimism just hours before the strike was publicly revealed, stating that both he and Trump held positive outlooks for reaching a negotiated diplomatic settlement to end the widely unpopular, devastating ongoing conflict with Iran. The revelation of the unreported strike has sparked immediate alarm among policymakers and advocacy groups focused on Iranian-American relations. Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, issued a stern public statement on Tuesday affirming that Tehran is fully prepared for any potential scenario, and that the nation retains its inherent right to legitimate self-defense until all acts of foreign military aggression against its territory are fully and permanently halted. Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), noted that prior to the strike reports, many observers had held cautious hope that after eight months of an unauthorized, illegal war, a diplomatic end to the conflict was finally within reach. “These deeply alarming revelations suggest we may be heading in precisely the opposite direction,” Abdi warned, emphasizing that every day Congress fails to intervene, the Trump administration is granted leeway to wage unapproved military campaigns, conceal its operations from the public, and gamble with the lives of millions of people across the region. Abdi called on Congress to immediately demand full transparency from the administration, reject any further unauthorized military action, and leverage its legislative power to cut off all funding for the unapproved Iran war, adding that the window to prevent a catastrophic wider escalation is rapidly closing. The confirmed Qeshm Island strike follows closely on public warnings from Democratic Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy, who shared details from a closed classified congressional briefing to alert the public that the Trump administration was weighing an “insane” plan to roll out large-scale renewed attacks on Iran in the immediate aftermath of the midterm elections. Murphy cautioned that if such a plan moves forward, it would trigger devastating regional escalation and effectively shatter longstanding U.S. commitments to global rule of law principles. While Murphy did not explicitly state that the administration was considering deploying nuclear weapons against Iran, public anxiety over a worst-case scenario spiked over the weekend after prominent conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, a vocal critic of the Iran war, claimed that the Trump administration could be mere days away from launching a nuclear strike on Iranian soil. In an official response, NIAC stated that regardless of whether such reports reflect formal military planning or reckless political posturing, the very existence of a credible possibility of a U.S. nuclear attack on Iran represents an unconscionable, unacceptable horror that demands immediate congressional oversight and public pushback.

After months of relentless campaign rallies, ad blitzes, and a historic multi-billion-dollar investment from partisan groups and candidates nationwide, voters across the United States have cast their ballots in the 2026 midterm elections. While pre-election public polling has consistently positioned the Democratic Party with a nominal advantage, longstanding concerns about survey reliability in recent cycles leave significant room for unforeseen upsets as results trickle in. Political analysts have mapped out three distinct, evidence-backed scenarios that could unfold once all votes are tabulated, each carrying vastly different ramifications for the trajectory of the final two years of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

The first and most dramatic possible outcome is a decisive Democratic electoral wave, breaking decades of historical precedent that typically favours the party out of presidential power during midterm cycles. Fueled by widespread voter frustration over historically low presidential approval ratings, elevated consumer costs linked to ongoing military tensions with Iran, and public backlash against controversial administration policies including sweeping aggressive immigration enforcement and generous incentives for large-scale data centre construction, Democratic candidates could outperform even their most optimistic projections. In this scenario, the party would not only easily clear the 218-seat threshold for a House majority, but amass a comfortable buffer by flipping nearly every toss-up House race and even notching unexpected wins in deeply conservative districts that have not sent a Democrat to Congress in a generation. In the Senate, the wave would deliver victories in nearly every competitive battleground, with historic upsets in ruby-red states such as Texas and Kansas, the latter of which has not elected a Democratic senator for nearly a century. This result would be driven by surging turnout among core Democratic constituencies, overwhelming support from independent voters, a reversal of recent inroads Trump made with Hispanic and young male voters, and even soft Republican supporters choosing to sit out the election rather than cast a ballot for their party. A Democratic sweep of both chambers would represent a searing public rebuke of Trump and his congressional allies, setting the stage for two years of fierce partisan legislative clashes that would block large swathes of the president’s policy agenda. Early warning signs of this wave forming would include Democratic overperformance in targeted House races in Florida, upset wins in traditionally Republican-held districts across Michigan, New York, Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky, and a surprise Democratic flip of the deeply conservative South Carolina Senate seat on election night.

The second, more moderate outcome is a narrow, partial Democratic victory that political analysts have dubbed the “trickle” scenario. In this path, Democrats would secure a slim House majority by winning the most competitive low-hanging fruit races, but fall far short of the sweeping gains projected in a wave cycle. This would force Democratic House leadership to navigate constant internal tensions between the party’s progressive left flank and its moderate centrist caucus to cobble together enough votes to pass even routine legislation. On the Senate side, the party would flip only a small handful of battleground seats – such as the widely expected pickup in North Carolina – but fall short of notching upset wins in conservative heartland states. Key races that would slip from Democratic grasp include the Maine Senate seat held by long-serving moderate Republican Susan Collins, a competitive Michigan seat where progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed fails to hold the Democratic line, and the Alaska House race where lingering confusion over the high-profile “two Dan Sullivans on the ballot” controversy – stemming from a dismissed Trump-era Republican lawsuit over ballot eligibility – sinks Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola. This scenario would materialise when the robust early voting turnout posted by Democratic voters is matched by a last-minute surge of Republican voters heading to the polls on election day, driven by Trump’s last-minute rallies targeting his core base. The end result would be a narrowly divided Congress, creating near-total legislative gridlock for the final two years of the presidential term. Early indicators of this outcome would include Florida delivering broad, comfortable victories for Republican candidates across the board, while Democrats pick up a small number of targeted House seats in Virginia and Pennsylvania but fail to dislodge entrenched Republican incumbents in safely red districts nationwide.

The third and final plausible outcome is a surprising Republican hold on both chambers of Congress, a result that would align with the pattern of pre-election polls systematically underestimating grassroots support for Trump and his allies. For this outcome to come to pass, Republican base voters would turn out at unexpectedly record-shattering levels, while independent and Hispanic voters who had signalled frustration with Trump’s policies in pre-election surveys break for Republican candidates at the last minute. Control of the House would hang in the balance for days after election night, as California’s notoriously slow mail-in ballot counting process drags on, and Republicans would ultimately eke out a slim majority thanks to favourable partisan redistricting maps passed in recent years in Texas, Florida and North Carolina. On the Senate side, Republicans would hold every competitive seat in conservative states and even flip a Democratic-held battleground seat in Michigan, while keeping Democratic challengers on the defensive in peripheral competitive races in North Carolina, Minnesota and New Hampshire. If this scenario unfolds, Trump would claim a fresh public mandate on the morning after election day, and move forward unimpeded with his full domestic and foreign policy agenda with the unwavering support of a Republican-controlled Congress. Early signs pointing to this outcome would include easy re-election victories for Republican Senators Ashley Moody in Florida and Jon Husted in Ohio, strong Republican defences of competitive House seats in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and successful GOP flips of Democratic-held House districts across North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.

Across every U.S. state and congressional district, millions of American voters are casting their ballots in the highly anticipated 2026 midterm elections, a pivotal democratic exercise that will determine the full composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the U.S. Senate. The outcomes of these races carry unprecedented weight, as they will directly shape the legislative trajectory for the remaining duration of former President Donald Trump’s presidential tenure, defining the scope of policy priorities ranging from economic regulation and immigration reform to national security and energy development. The months-long campaign season leading up to polling day has been marked by relentless drama, unforeseen strategic twists, last-minute candidate developments, and sharply divisive national debates that have mobilized voter turnout at levels rarely seen in modern midterm cycles. As electoral officials begin processing ballots and the nation awaits results, many citizens and political observers are testing their knowledge of the most notable moments, policy stakes, and underreported details of this high-stakes campaign via an interactive public quiz designed to highlight key takeaways from the months of heated political competition.

Across the United States, tens of millions of registered voters are heading to polling stations to cast their ballots in the highly anticipated 2026 midterm elections, a pivotal electoral event that will determine partisan control of the U.S. Congress and shape the remainder of President Donald Trump’s second term policy agenda. Unlike general elections that center on the presidency, midterm outcomes will dictate whether Trump’s Republican party can advance its legislative priorities unimpeded, or if the opposition Democratic party will secure a congressional majority to launch oversight initiatives and block proposed policies.

Unlike fast-projected national presidential election results, the final makeup of the 119th Congress may not be confirmed for hours, days, or in some cases, even weeks after polling stations close, due to a combination of tight competitive races, varying state vote-processing rules, and the growing prevalence of mail-in and early ballots. To contextualize the unfolding process, it is critical to break down the structure of U.S. congressional power: the bicameral legislature consists of two chambers, the 435-seat House of Representatives and the 100-seat Senate. A party needs to secure 218 House seats to claim a simple majority, while the Senate requires 51 seats for full partisan control; in the event of a 50-50 split, the sitting vice president holds a constitutionally mandated tie-breaking vote that grants their party operational control of the upper chamber.

The first wave of preliminary results will begin trickling in starting at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT), when polling stations shutter in solidly red Kentucky and Indiana, and deep-blue Vermont. These early returns, however, will offer minimal insight into the national partisan mood, as all three states are considered safe partisan strongholds where the outcome was widely predicted by pre-election analysts. Election observers and BBC political analysts will instead turn their full attention to a slate of highly competitive toss-up races across Eastern and Central time zones, which will serve as the first reliable barometer of voter sentiment toward the Trump administration’s first two years in office.

The first set of high-stakes competitive races will come into focus at 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT), when polls close in Ohio, where incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted is locked in a dead heat with veteran Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown. Half an hour later at 20:00 EST (01:00 GMT), voting concludes in Maine’s marquee Senate contest pitting long-serving Republican Susan Collins against Democratic state legislative leader Troy Jackson, alongside the majority of polling locations in Michigan, Kansas and Texas. Polls in Iowa, the remaining Central Time Zone precincts of Michigan, Kansas and Texas will close at 21:00 EST (02:00 GMT), before the final battleground state, Alaska, wraps up voting at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT).

U.S. major media outlets rely on sophisticated, long-vetted statistical projection models to call races before 100% of ballots are counted, a practice that is only deployed when analysts confirm a candidate’s uncounted remaining votes cannot close the gap with their established lead. In races that remain separated by razor-thin margins, however, outlets may delay making a formal projection for days or longer. The 2022 midterm cycle offers a clear precedent for extended vote counting timelines: a full 24 hours after polls closed, neither party had secured definitive control of either chamber, with the House majority not formally projected for Republicans until November 17. The Nevada Senate contest took four full days of counting to confirm a narrow Democratic win, while Georgia’s Senate race required a December 6 runoff election after no candidate cleared the 50% threshold on initial election night.

Independent election analysts at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report have identified seven Senate races as pure toss-ups heading into election day: Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of these competitive seats are currently held by Republican incumbents, with only Michigan classified as a Democratic-held seat in play. For Democrats to hit the 51-seat threshold for an outright Senate majority, they will need to win four of these seven toss-up contests on top of holding all seats rated as leaning or likely Democratic. Their path to majority control becomes far more arduous if they fail to defend the Michigan seat, where progressive political figure Abdul El-Sayed is facing off against Trump-aligned former FBI agent and Republican candidate Mike Rogers. Even deep-red Texas, a state that has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, remains unexpectedly competitive, where former public school teacher James Talarico has mounted a credible challenge to sitting state attorney general and close Trump ally Ken Paxton.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority of exactly 218 seats, plus one independent representative who reliably votes with the GOP caucus. Key competitive House races highlighted by the Cook Political Report are concentrated along the U.S. East Coast, including New York’s 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania’s 8th District, and Virginia’s 1st District, all of which are expected to play a decisive role in determining which party claims the lower chamber.

An hour before the first polling stations close, at 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT), the first batch of national exit poll data will be released, offering critical insight into the top policy priorities driving voter decision-making across the country. Every U.S. state administers its own election system with unique rules for ballot processing, verification and counting, leading to wide variation in the pace of result reporting. Jurisdictions like Florida begin processing early and mail-in ballots days before election day, while other states do not start tabulating any mailed votes until November 3, election day itself. The official vote canvassing process, run by locally appointed or elected election officials, involves multi-step verification of signatures, ballot sorting, and initial machine tabulations, with most states requiring a mandatory post-election audit that compares a manual random sample count to machine totals to confirm accuracy.

Tight margin races often trigger automatic or candidate-requested recounts, and in the most contentious contests, formal legal challenges over alleged voting irregularities can further delay final results. More than 30 U.S. states permit officials to process mail-in ballots before election day, but the remaining jurisdictions that restrict pre-election processing can take multiple days to work through backlogs of mailed ballots. In California, for example, any postmarked ballot that arrives up to seven days after election day is still legally eligible to be counted. Alaska’s use of ranked-choice voting adds additional layers of complexity to tabulation, requiring multiple rounds of vote redistribution that can extend the counting timeline significantly, while ongoing pre-election disputes over ballot eligibility have already raised the prospect of post-election legal challenges in the state.

Once all votes are tallied, all recounts are completed, and all legal challenges are resolved, results are formally certified first at the county level, then at the state level by a state canvassing board typically led by the secretary of state, before the governor signs off on official certifications that are submitted directly to the U.S. Congress. The U.S. Congress holds ultimate constitutional authority over the seating of its members, with both the House and Senate empowered to reject a contested candidate or order a full investigation into disputed results. Outgoing members of the current Congress will formally leave office on January 3, a date that falls on a weekend, meaning new members will likely be sworn in the same day unless Congress passes emergency legislation to adjust the inauguration timeline.

As the highly anticipated 2026 United States midterm elections draw near, set to unfold on Tuesday, 3 November, the BBC has rolled out a comprehensive, cross-platform coverage strategy to deliver real-time updates, expert analysis, and on-the-ground reporting for global audiences as the outcomes will define the trajectory of American domestic and political affairs for the subsequent two years, including the final stretch of former President Donald Trump’s term in office. From the moment polls close on the U.S. East Coast, the broadcaster will launch its dedicated election results special, streaming live starting at 18:30 EST (23:30 GMT) across multiple digital outlets: the official BBC News website, mobile application, BBC iPlayer, and the BBC News YouTube channel, alongside linear broadcasts on BBC One and the BBC News Channel. Anchored by Clive Myrie reporting directly from the U.S. Capitol, the flagship programme will feature co-hosts Sumi Somaskanda and Caitríona Perry operating from the BBC’s Washington D.C. studio, with roving correspondents dispatched to key battleground states to capture local reactions and on-site vote counting developments. Top BBC editorial staff including North America Editor Sarah Smith, seasoned North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, and Analysis Editor Ros Atkins will deliver granular, context-rich breakdowns of critical races as preliminary data rolls in. To cater to diverse audience preferences, the network will maintain a continuously updated live page integrating real-time text dispatches, video clips, and instant expert reaction, paired with an interactive results tool that lets users track vote tally progress for every U.S. state in real time. Subscribers can sign up for Anthony Zurcher’s widely read *Politics Unspun* newsletter to receive in-depth, curated analysis of every key outcome delivered directly to their inboxes. For radio listeners, UK-based audiences can access special Washington-originated coverage hosted by James Coomarasamy and Asma Khalid starting at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on BBC Radio 4, while global listeners can tune in to the identical broadcast via the BBC World Service. The following morning, starting at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) on 4 November, BBC Breakfast will air a full results roundup on BBC One, followed by Radio 4’s flagship *Today* programme which will feature extended reaction and contextual reporting from the U.S. capital. Throughout election week, the network’s popular *Americast* podcast will shift to a daily release schedule, with hosts Justin Webb, Sarah Smith, Anthony Zurcher, and Marianna Spring breaking down the most consequential developments for casual and dedicated political followers alike. The BBC notes that all race winner declarations shared during coverage are classified as “projections”, derived from verified data analysis conducted by its two trusted official partners, the Associated Press and U.S. broadcast network CBS. These projections are issued only when analysts confirm a candidate holds an insurmountable lead, and while they are not legally official final results, they have a near-perfect track record of matching the certified tallies that U.S. state governments typically release days or weeks after election day once all ballots are fully validated. To further support audience understanding of the high-stakes contest, the BBC has also published a suite of supplementary educational resources: a beginner’s guide explaining the function and significance of U.S. midterm elections, a profile feature highlighting seven high-stakes Senate races that will decide congressional control, an interactive map breaking down key swing regions that will determine the election’s final outcome, a fact-checking piece verifying the real performance of the U.S. economy under the incumbent administration, and a direct sign-up portal for Anthony Zurcher’s election analysis newsletter.

With two years remaining in his presidential term, Donald Trump – the figure who has redefined the contours of U.S. political life over the past decade – now faces a high-stakes 2026 midterm contest that will decide partisan control of both chambers of Congress, at a moment of deep vulnerability for his Republican Party. Exit polling and pre-election surveys uniformly flag the soaring cost of living as the top priority for voters heading to the polls, driven by steep spikes in food and fuel prices tied in large part to Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime and the ongoing, unpopular military conflict with Iran. After securing a decisive 2024 presidential victory that delivered strong initial approval ratings, Trump has seen his public standing plummet to historic lows in recent months, prompting a relentless cross-country campaign push that has included dozens of headline campaign rallies. Unusually, the president has deployed significant time and resources to states that have long been considered unassailable Republican territory, including Iowa and Kansas, during his final pre-election weekend blitz. The Republican National Committee has also poured hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign ad spending into these previously safe jurisdictions, most notably the closely contested Kansas Senate race. Carrie Dann, Managing Editor of nonpartisan election analysis outlet the Cook Political Report, told the BBC that this unusual level of investment in a reliably red state is a clear red flag for the GOP: “When they start pouring millions in hard-earned American campaign dollars into a state they should win handily, that’s definitive proof their internal polling shows they are in serious trouble. The spending in Kansas will far outstrip any pre-election projections Republicans made months ago – this is a party running entirely on the defensive.” At nearly every campaign stop, Trump has made a direct appeal to voters to cast their ballots as if his name appeared on the midterm ballot, a plea he repeated during his Sunday rally in Kansas, where recent polling shows the once-safe Republican Senate seat is now fully competitive for Democratic contenders. This framing cuts to the core of a defining question for the 2026 cycle: is Trump still a net electoral asset for the Republican Party, as he was during the 2022 midterms, when nearly all GOP candidates scrambled to secure his coveted endorsement? The answer is far more ambiguous in 2026. The ongoing war with Iran has delivered a severe financial shock to U.S. households: the average price of a gallon of diesel, which stood at $3.75 before the conflict began in February, surged to an all-time high of $6.52 by September. Inflation has also climbed from 3% on the day Trump took office to 3.7% today, with independent economists calculating that the administration’s broad tariff policies are responsible for a measurable portion of that elevated rate. These economic headwinds have left the GOP exposed in a swathe of traditional red states across the American heartland, including Texas, Ohio, and Kansas, where Trump won by double-digit margins as recently as 2024. Stephen Hawkins, Global Director of Research at polling firm More in Common, noted that the most competitive Senate races of the cycle are unfolding in exactly the regions where Republicans have historically dominated: “We are seeing states that Trump carried by 10, 12, even 15 points just two years ago now have Democratic candidates with fully viable paths to victory.” Interviews with voters across Iowa, a 2024 Trump win hit hard by spiking fuel and fertilizer costs, laid bare the deep rifts in Republican support. Self-identified Republican Paul Ross, speaking outside a packed college football game, acknowledged that Trump’s current standing is actively hurting GOP candidates: “With the way things are right now, I think a lot of people will be less likely to vote Republican, even other people in my party – it’s genuinely detrimental.” Fellow Iowa voter Zach Shimp echoed that sentiment, adding that Trump’s profile is driving up Democratic turnout in a state that would otherwise be safely red. Rose Heming, another local resident, summed up widespread frustration: “He got us stuck in this war, and grocery and gas prices are sky high, we can barely keep up.” Crucially, however, widespread economic discontent has not translated into a corresponding surge in positive sentiment for the Democratic Party. Pre-election national polling, including a widely cited NBC survey released on the final Sunday before voting, puts Trump’s approval rating at 38% – a historic low for a sitting president – but finds that only 29% of voters hold a positive view of the Democratic Party. Many disaffected Republican voters remain deeply aligned with the GOP’s core conservative, Christian values, and say they will never cross party lines to vote for a Democratic candidate, even amid cost-of-living pain. Tim McKinnon, an Iowa Trump 2024 voter, explained: “We don’t love all his overseas military interventions, but an extra dollar per gallon of gas isn’t going to change our core beliefs. We didn’t vote for a perfect politician, we voted for the set of values he stood for.” For Democrats, the narrow path to victory means that any gains on Tuesday will not stem from broad public adoration for their party, but from the fact that many frustrated voters view them as a marginally less bad alternative to the status quo. The party is already looking ahead to the 2028 presidential contest, where it faces significant internal fractures that spilled into public view during the 2026 cycle, most notably in Michigan over the final campaign weekend. Party strategists are treating midterm results as a critical test to measure whether they can expand their competitive footprint into traditionally red states like Texas, elevate rising young stars including Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Texas state legislator James Talarico, and make inroads with rural conservative voters. Even in states where Trump and GOP surrogates have spent millions framing Democratic candidates as dangerous communists, many voters say the economic crisis overrides those culture war appeals. Nicole Williams, a Detroit small business owner who runs her own hairdressing salon, said: “I don’t care if they call it socialist, I just want my cost of living to go down – anything is better than what we have right now.” Fellow Michigan voter Gwen Jackson added that residents are fed up with partisan attacks and ready for tangible change. Historical midterm trends, which almost universally see the sitting president’s party lose congressional seats, combined with current polling aggregates, have left many Democratic operatives confident they will flip control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Veteran Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh argued that every Republican lawmaker who declined to push back against Trump’s policies will face consequences at the polls. A Democratic House majority would give the party power to launch sweeping oversight investigations into the Trump administration, and potentially move to impeach senior cabinet officials – most notably Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, over the handling of the Iran war – even as Trump has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to bypass congressional authority and govern via executive order to advance his agenda. Flipping the U.S. Senate is a far steeper climb for Democrats, who need a net gain of four seats to take control if they hold their existing vulnerable seat in Michigan, or a net gain of five seats if Michigan falls to the GOP. The most competitive battleground races, all within typical polling margins of error, are unfolding in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and North Carolina. Election analysts warn that historical polling errors have consistently overestimated Democratic support and undercounted Republican turnout for Trump-backed candidates, and the president has repeatedly raised unsubstantiated claims about election integrity in the lead-up to voting, raising the real possibility he will challenge results if the GOP suffers unexpected losses. The 2026 midterms serve as the final national electoral test before the 2028 presidential election, which will define the future of U.S. politics in a post-Trump era, and offer voters a formal public referendum on the performance of the Trump administration after two years in office.