分类： business

Global financial markets saw mixed movements on Friday as thin holiday trading amplified existing uncertainty, driven by simmering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing digestion of the latest batch of corporate earnings results.

Many of the world’s major financial centers remained closed for the May 1 international labor holiday, including key markets across mainland China, Hong Kong, France, and Germany, leaving thinner-than-usual trading volumes to amplify price swings across open venues. Among active exchanges, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 0.4% at 59,513.12, while London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% to 10,313.70, dragged down by NatWest. The British bank reported higher quarterly net profit but issued a cautionary note that domestic economic conditions are on track to deteriorate in coming months.

Energy markets were the focal point of investor attention after a day of extreme volatility the previous session, with oil prices eventually stabilizing around $111 a barrel for international benchmark Brent crude. The wild swing was triggered by escalating fears of renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran, with no visible progress toward a diplomatic deal to de-escalate tensions. Investors are particularly concerned about the potential for a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily global oil supplies.

Earlier this week, Brent surged to a four-year high above $126 per barrel after Axios reported that former U.S. President Donald Trump would receive a briefing on potential new military strikes against Iran, compounding existing anxiety following warnings that a blockade of Iranian ports could last for months. This latest energy market shock has stoked broader fears of persistent global inflation, prompting major central banks around the world to hold interest rates steady this week as they monitor evolving economic risks. Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday but left the door open for future rate hikes if inflation pressures do not abate, matching the cautious stance adopted this week by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, U.S. markets closed out Thursday at fresh record highs, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notching new closing records, supported by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and continued resilience in U.S. economic growth. “The latest U.S. earnings season has been robust, which has helped prevent global markets from suffering big losses despite the impact of the Iran conflict,” noted Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. Big tech led the positive earnings momentum: Alphabet, Google’s parent company, jumped 10% after posting forecast-beating profits and solid revenue growth across all its core business units Wednesday, while Apple beat analyst expectations after Thursday’s market close, driven by surprisingly strong iPhone demand.

In currency markets, the yen saw a slight weakening against the U.S. dollar one day after a sharp rally fueled by speculation that Japanese financial authorities had intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up the slumping currency. Japanese officials have issued repeated public warnings in recent weeks about excessive yen depreciation, signaling their willingness to step in to stabilize valuations. As of 1025 GMT, Brent crude traded up 0.7% at $111.20 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.3% to hit $105.39 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Thursday up 1.6% at 49,652.14, and the dollar traded at 156.50 yen, down slightly from 156.60 yen a day earlier.

Analysts note that while near-term volatility is likely to continue as geopolitical risks unfold, strong corporate earnings have so far acted as a buffer for global equities. “If oil stays in the $100-a-barrel range for an extended period, the broader economic costs will eventually be harder to ignore,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “But for now, earnings are the bigger fish, and markets are happy to keep swimming with the current.”

After eight consecutive days of declines — its longest losing stretch since 2018 — Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 notched a welcome rebound on Friday, driven by sharp gains across major mining stocks and a robust sales update from national supermarket chain Coles. The leading index climbed 64 points, or 0.74%, to close at 8729.80, while the wider All Ordinaries index followed suit, rising 67 points (0.75%) to settle at 8954.60.

The Australian dollar edged slightly lower over the session, dipping 0.15% to trade at 71.89 US cents. Ten of the ASX 200’s 11 industry sectors finished the day in positive territory, with the materials sector leading the charge. Global oil prices pulled back from a recent four-year high of $US126 per barrel to $US111 per barrel, easing cost pressure on resource operations and lifting investor sentiment for major miners. BHP Group rose 2.27% to $54.94, Rio Tinto jumped 2.73% to $171.97, and Fortescue Metals closed up 1.83% at $20.01.

Despite the near-term market bounce, AMP’s deputy chief economist Diana Mousina cautioned that geopolitical risks remain underpriced by markets, particularly in the global energy sector. While peace talks had previously showed tentative progress, negotiations have now stalled, leaving the region in a tense geopolitical standstill. “Markets clearly expect some sort of resolution will eventually be reached, especially as missile strikes have slowed in recent weeks,” Mousina explained. “However, we believe markets are underestimating the lingering risks, especially within the oil market.”

The consumer staples sector also turned in a strong performance, almost entirely thanks to Coles’ upbeat trading update. The supermarket giant reported group sales revenue of $10.7 billion for the 12-week period ending March 29, sending its shares surging 3.66% to $22.92. Other consumer-facing stocks also posted gains: Endeavour Group climbed 2.09% to $3.42, while A2 Milk rose 2.68% to $7.27. Coles’ main rival Woolworths bucked the trend, however, slipping 0.70% to $34.15.

Financials was the only sector to close the session in negative territory. ANZ Banking Group recorded a 9% half-year profit increase to $3.65 billion, but shares still slumped 2.84% to $35.61 after chief executive Nuno Matos warned that the ongoing geopolitical conflict would create greater economic headwinds for Australia. Matos noted that lower national growth, persistently high inflation, and ongoing interest rate hikes will create growing financial pressure for many Australian customers. “As Australia’s most international bank, we have a front-row seat to global developments,” Matos said. “Much of the potential impact of this crisis remains ahead of us, but the longer oil supplies remain constrained, the greater the chance the crisis shifts from primarily an inflation challenge to a much more serious supply and growth challenge.” Other major banks also posted small declines: Commonwealth Bank fell 0.36% to $173.04, Westpac dipped 0.13% to $38.45, and NAB slipped 0.13% to $39.83.

In other corporate news, Qantas Airways gained 0.83% to $8.48 after announcing it would extend flight capacity cuts through to 2026-2027 in response to ongoing disruption from the Middle East conflict. Sleep and respiratory treatment manufacturer ResMed dropped 3.53% to $28.73 despite reporting an 11% year-over-year revenue increase to $US1.4 billion for its latest reporting period.

Fears of a return to the crippling 1970s-era stagflation are mounting among Australia’s leading economic experts, as skyrocketing oil prices driven by Middle East tensions push inflation to multi-year highs and threaten to push unemployment sharply upward. The core risk stems from ongoing disruptions to global energy supplies, centered on potential extended disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil shipments pass.

In a stark analysis published in an investment note, Bob Cunneen, senior economist at MLC, warned that the ongoing conflict in Iran has created a dangerous dual threat of simultaneously rising inflation and rising unemployment — the toxic combination that defines stagflation. “The global economy currently confronts the prospect of both rising inflation and unemployment because of this Iran war,” Cunneen explained. “This stagflation mix of both higher inflation and unemployment creates a major policy dilemma for central banks, which are forced to choose between taming sky-high prices and preventing further job losses.”

Stagflation is widely regarded as one of the worst possible scenarios for any modern economy, as it combines stagnant consumer spending and slowing growth with persistent accelerating inflation — a combination that leaves policymakers with few effective tools to address both crises at once. Australia last experienced a full stagflationary crisis in the mid-1970s, which was also triggered by a major global oil price shock.

Before the escalation of Middle East tensions, global benchmark oil traded at roughly $US56 per barrel. In the weeks following the outbreak of conflict, prices spiked as high as $US120 per barrel, marking a 97% jump in crude prices in US dollar terms for the year to date. For Australian motorists, this translates to an extra 10 cents per litre at the fuel pump for every $10 per barrel rise in crude costs. While the Australian government has partially offset this pain by cutting fuel excise in half and returning GST windfall gains to consumers, the broader inflationary shock has already flowed through the entire national economy.

Cunneen’s warning echoes a growing consensus among leading economic analysts. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham has projected that Australia will enter a stagflationary period for two of the next three quarters. “As we see it, a stagflationary shock has arrived,” Bloxham wrote in a note to clients. When asked whether this would mirror the extreme stagflation of the 1970s, Bloxham noted that the outcome depends heavily on the persistence of the energy shock and the policy choices made by Australian regulators. He added that outright stagflation is a growing risk, and policymakers should prioritize keeping the episode as short as possible through optimal policy settings.
Bloxham pointed out that Australia entered this crisis already vulnerable, with inflation running above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range at 3.7% even before the Middle East conflict escalated. “Because Australia’s economy has little or no spare capacity, there is a higher risk than in many other countries that the sharp fuel-related rise in inflation will more quickly end up in higher inflation expectations,” he explained.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver echoed that assessment, confirming that Australia is already experiencing a mild stagflationary environment, far less severe than the 1970s crisis but still damaging for households. “At this stage we are only expecting a mild form of stagflation with only slightly higher unemployment,” Oliver said. He did, however, warn that the risks grow sharply if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for an extended period: prolonged closure could push oil prices even higher, trigger fuel supply restrictions, and lead to a full recession with a significant jump in unemployment. If that scenario plays out, Oliver added, it would also create major headwinds for Australia’s already fragile property market.

Official data released Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirms the severity of Australia’s inflation challenge. Headline inflation rose 1.1% in the March quarter, driven overwhelmingly by surging fuel prices, pushing annual inflation to 4.6% — the highest reading recorded since September 2023, when the Australian economy was still rebounding from post-Covid-19 disruptions. Even before the government cut fuel excise, national fuel prices rose 32.8% in the month leading up to the ABS survey.
Morningstar market strategist Lochlan Halloway noted that Australia’s inflation problem is not just driven by global energy shocks — it is also deeply entrenched in the domestic economy. Even when stripping out the impact of the oil price jump, Australia’s trimmed mean core inflation rate still came in at 3.3%, well above the RBA’s target range. “That is still too high. And the fact that it held firm despite a significant external shock to household budgets tells you something about the persistence of the underlying problem,” Halloway said. He added that beyond energy prices, Australia urgently needs to boost lagging productivity growth to ease pressure on the economy: “Until we either lift productivity growth such that the economy gets a little breathing room, or, the more depressing outcome, squash demand back down again, this problem will keep re-emerging.”

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis has projected that inflation will peak at 5.4% in the June quarter, bringing even more cost-of-living pain for Australian households. In response to persistent inflation, she now expects the RBA to implement three consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate hikes at its May, June, and August policy meetings, up from earlier projections of a single hike. These higher rates are expected to slow economic growth, particularly household spending, and lead to net job losses across the country. Ellis now projects that Australia’s unemployment rate will peak around 5%, up from her earlier forecast of 4.7%, and warned that cost-of-living pressures will remain persistent until 2028, when inflation is finally expected to return to the RBA’s 2-3% target range.

Geopolitical instability centered on conflict in Iran has triggered a sweeping restructuring of global maritime trade networks, pushing Africa into an unexpected central role as container shipping giants reroute major cargo flows away from historically critical chokepoints, logistics and maritime industry sources confirm. The dual pressures of Strait of Hormuz disruptions and escalating tensions in the Red Sea have forced shipping companies to overhaul decades-old supply chains, leaving land transport alternatives as the only reliable option for delivering goods to Gulf Cooperation Council nations.Over the past two months, widespread blockades of key sea lanes have cut off direct maritime access to most coastal Gulf states, prompting shipowners to develop overland trucking corridors to move food, consumer goods and industrial products from new regional entry points to end markets. The Saudi Red Sea port of Jeddah has emerged as the primary temporary hub for this reconfigured trade, with the world’s largest container lines—including Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM, Maersk and Cosco—diverting all Gulf-bound cargo through the port via the Suez Canal. Once unloaded, cargo is transported overland along desert highways to final destinations across the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, markets that have been cut off from direct sea service for two months.Despite its new role as a critical trade gateway, Jeddah was never designed to handle the sudden surge in cargo volumes, and port congestion is now worsening by the week. Arthur Barillas de The, co-founder of global freight forwarder Ovrsea, shared these observations with Agence France-Presse, noting that infrastructure constraints have created significant bottlenecks. Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler Marine Traffic underscores the growing strain: as of last Thursday, 11 container vessels were docked at Jeddah, nine more were anchored waiting for berth access, and the average waiting time for unloading climbed to 36 hours, up from 17 hours just one week prior.Beyond regional reconfiguration for Gulf-bound cargo, shipping lines have also established alternative port bases outside the Strait of Hormuz. Three key terminals—Oman’s Sohar Port and the UAE’s Khorfakkan and Fujairah ports—now serve as entry points for cargo that is moved overland across the Emirates to inland Gulf markets. Jordan’s Port of Aqaba has become the primary hub for cargo bound for Baghdad and Basra in Iraq, while a cross-border corridor through Turkey also supports deliveries to northern Iraq. The most dramatic shift, however, is playing out on long-haul Asia-Europe trade routes, where systematic diversion around the African continent has become the new norm.Shipping lines began diverting away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal long before the current outbreak of conflict in Iran, but the crisis has accelerated the trend dramatically. According to CyclOpe, a leading French commodities industry publication, the shift started on November 19, 2023, when Iran-backed Houthi militias based on Yemen’s Red Sea coast launched the first attack on a commercial container transiting the route. Since that time, rerouting has become standard practice for most major carriers, says Ronan Boudet, head of container intelligence at Kpler.Instead of transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea and on to the Suez Canal, container ships now sail south along Africa’s entire east coast, round the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of South Africa, and then turn north to reach European and Mediterranean ports. Edouard Louis-Dreyfus, chairman of French shipping giant Louis Dreyfus Armateurs, told AFP that the latest escalation of tensions in the Gulf has only worsen supply chain disruptions, with no near-term improvement in sight. Yves Guillo, a supply chain expert at Paris-based management consultancy Efeso, estimates that 70 percent of all freight traffic that previously transited the Red Sea in 2023 is now rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.Data from the International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch platform, which tracks vessel movements via GPS signals, confirms the scale of this shift. Commercial vessel traffic through the Cape of Good Hope has more than tripled in three years, while traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has plummeted by more than 50 percent. Between March 1 and April 24 this year, an average of 20 commercial vessels rounded the Cape of Good Hope every day, compared to just six vessels per day in the same period in 2023. By contrast, average daily transits through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait fell from 18 in March-April 2023 to just five this year.The restructuring of global shipping lanes has created a mix of winners and losers across the global economy, with tangible impacts on shipping costs and delivery times. Guillo explains that longer routes have stretched Asia-Europe transit times by an average of two weeks, while costs have spiked dramatically: the longer journey requires 30 to 50 percent more fuel, and carriers need 10 to 20 percent additional vessels to maintain the same service frequency. Citing data from the Drewry World Container Index, Guillo adds that the average cost to ship a standard 40-foot container on major trade routes rose 14 percent in April compared to the same period last year.Some African ports have seen unexpected gains from the new routing structure. The Tanger Med Port Authority in Morocco reported it handled 11 million standard containers in 2025, an 8.4 percent increase year-over-year, driven by increased traffic from rerouted vessels. But other economies have suffered severe losses: Egypt, which relies heavily on Suez Canal toll revenues for a large share of its national income, lost an estimated $7 billion in toll revenues in 2024, a drop of more than 60 percent compared to 2023, according to CyclOpe. As long as geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East, industry analysts expect this reshaped trade landscape to remain in place, with Africa continuing to anchor the new core of global container shipping.

In a historic showing for Australia’s grocery sector, German-founded retail giant Aldi has claimed the 2025 Supermarket of the Year crown in Roy Morgan’s annual Customer Satisfaction Awards – marking its sixth straight win and its ninth overall victory, a record no other domestic supermarket has matched.

The discount chain secured an average customer satisfaction score of 87.6% to top the rankings, extending an unbroken winning streak that dates back to 2021, now hitting 55 consecutive months of leading customer satisfaction, according to independent consumer researcher Roy Morgan.

As Australia’s third-largest grocery chain by market value and the nation’s second-most trusted brand, Aldi has built its reputation on low pricing at a time when Australian households are grappling with persistent cost-of-living pressures. Simon Padovani-Ginies, group director of Aldi Australia, said the company was deeply proud to retain the top honor.

“With cost of living pressures continuing to stretch household budgets, Australians are prioritizing value more than ever before,” Padovani-Ginies said. “Nearly 70% of our high-quality, award-winning product range is priced under $5, and we’re proud our commitment to the lowest possible prices is consistently verified by independent research. That gives our customers full confidence that every time they shop with us, they’re getting premium goods at unbeatable Aldi prices.”

Independent analysis estimates the average Australian household saves more than $3,000 per year on grocery costs by choosing to shop at Aldi compared to competing major supermarket chains.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, congratulated Aldi on its record-breaking run of awards, noting the retailer has carved out a distinct, compelling position in the highly competitive Australian grocery market. “This ‘Good Different’ supermarket offers a compelling alternative to its larger domestic rivals, and its consistent performance through shifting economic and political conditions speaks to its strong connection with customers,” Levine said. “Aldi has ranked among Australia’s top five most trusted brands for more than six years running, a milestone that has held steady through all kinds of market and economic upheaval, and millions of Australian shoppers consistently rank it as their top choice for satisfaction.”

The award win cements Aldi’s ongoing position as a major disruptor in Australia’s $100 billion-plus annual grocery market, where it continues to gain market share from long-established incumbents by focusing on low pricing and curated private-label ranges.

Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming May policy meeting, three-quarters of leading Australian economists and financial industry experts are sounding the alarm: mortgage-holding households across the country are set to face another round of interest rate increases that will stretch household budgets even further.

A recent nationwide poll conducted by comparison platform Finder, which surveyed 36 financial experts and economists, found 27 respondents are convinced RBA Governor Michele Bullock will have no alternative but to greenlight another cash rate hike when the board meets next Tuesday. If this prediction holds, the increase will mark the RBA’s third consecutive rate rise following hikes in February and March, undoing the temporary cash rate relief Australian borrowers enjoyed in 2025.

The RBA already lifted the cash rate by a combined 50 basis points across its first two meetings of 2026, pushing the benchmark rate up to 4.10%. Should policymakers opt for a further 25 basis point increase in May, Australians holding the country’s average $736,259 home loan will see their annual mortgage repayments jump by an extra $2,657, according to Finder’s calculations.

The calls for another rate hike come after hotter-than-expected March quarter inflation data released this week gave policymakers more justification to tighten monetary policy. New figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show headline inflation climbed 1.1% over the three months to March, driven largely by skyrocketing global oil prices that have hit Australian motorists hard for months. Annual inflation hit 4.6% in the 12 months ending March 2026, marking the highest annual inflation rate Australia has seen since September 2023, when the national economy was in its post-COVID-19 rebound phase.

Petrol costs alone surged 32.8% in March, pushing the broader transportation category up 9.2% month-on-month. Even the RBA’s preferred core inflation measure, the trimmed mean — which strips out volatile price swings to give a clearer view of underlying inflation pressures — came in at 3.3% over the 12 months to March, holding steady at the same level recorded in previous readings.

Wealth Within Group chief investment analyst Dale Gillham, one of the experts predicting a hike, said stubbornly rising inflation leaves the RBA with little room to hold rates steady. “I don’t think they have much choice, given inflation is still rising,” he noted, though he added he does not support the move, arguing that government overspending is the root cause of Australia’s persistent inflation.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver echoed that view, pointing out that core inflation already sits well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range, even before the full flow-on effects of higher oil prices filter through to other sectors of the economy, including airfares, fertiliser, plastics and broader retail transport costs. “And there is a rising risk that inflation expectations are rising again impacting wage claims,” Oliver said. “So the RBA is likely to hike again to improve its confidence that inflation will fall back to target on a reasonable timeframe.”

Not all experts are convinced a hike is on the cards, however. Queensland University of Technology adjunct professor and personal finance specialist Noel Whittaker argues the RBA will choose to hold rates steady, pointing to the extreme financial pressure already crushing Australian households. “To me, it would be economic madness to raise rates in this time of uncertainty,” Whittaker said, noting that while a recession has been forecast for months, it has not yet materialized, meaning the central bank also has no reason to cut rates in the near term.

The global aviation sector is facing mounting systemic pressures that are forcing major carriers to reshuffle their operational plans well into the next financial year, and Australia’s Qantas Group — which owns both Qantas and budget subsidiary Jetstar — is the latest airline to extend network adjustments to navigate ongoing headwinds. The two biggest challenges driving the changes are persistently sky-high jet fuel prices and ongoing travel market disruption stemming from conflict in the Middle East, which have combined to reshape international travel demand across the Asia-Pacific region.

In an official statement, Qantas Group confirmed it is continuing to reconfigure its route network to two key ends: first, to mitigate the financial and operational fallout of Middle East tensions and sustained elevated fuel costs, and second, to capitalize on the unbroken strong consumer demand for travel between Australia and Europe.

The carrier group has chosen to extend the network adjustments it first announced earlier, rolling the changes through the July-to-September period of 2026 and into the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. A core part of the international reshuffle is the redeployment of existing aircraft to boost capacity on Australian-European routes, an adjustment that also gives customers booked with Qantas’ partner airlines greater flexibility to rebook onto alternative services if their original plans are disrupted.

A key addition to the expanded capacity is the extension of extra Perth-Rome return services through the end of October 2026. By contrast, Sydney-to-Paris services will scale back to three weekly return trips starting in August 2026, as previously scheduled; all Paris services will continue to operate out of Sydney with a stopover in Singapore. Overall, the combined adjustments add approximately 2,000 additional seats per week for travel between Australia and Europe, matching the ongoing robust demand on the corridor.

Not all routes are seeing growth, however. Qantas will temporarily suspend its direct Sydney-Bengaluru service starting in August 2026, with a planned resumption of operations at the end of October. Both Qantas and Jetstar have also cut available capacity on trans-Tasman routes connecting Australia and New Zealand. Altogether, the changes reduce the Qantas Group’s previously planned international capacity by 2% for the first quarter of FY27.

On the domestic front, the group is extending a previously announced 5% cut to overall domestic capacity through the end of September 2026, with the reductions largely concentrated on high-volume routes between major Australian capital cities. Qantas Group noted that all customers whose bookings are affected by the schedule changes are being contacted directly, with options to rebook onto alternative flights or receive a full refund for their tickets.

Industry analysts note that this latest round of extended schedule adjustments underscores how the lingering impacts of post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, combined with new geopolitical and commodity price shocks, continue to create uncertainty for airline profitability and planning across the globe.