分类: business

  • South Korea’s Kospi share index falls 8%, other Asian shares are also mostly lower

    South Korea’s Kospi share index falls 8%, other Asian shares are also mostly lower

    A widespread sell-off of semiconductor stocks sparked a sharp single-day drop across South Korean equities on Wednesday, dragging most other major Asian benchmark indexes into negative territory as investor sentiment turned bearish for the region’s tech manufacturing sector.

    The downward spiral began at South Korea’s leading memory chipmaker SK Hynix, which saw its share price plummet 12.6% by midday trading in Seoul. The steep decline came despite the firm reporting that its full-year operating profit had surged sixfold year-over-year to a new all-time high of 60.5 trillion won, equal to roughly $41.2 billion. Market participants reacted negatively to the results after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings fell short of the consensus forecasts compiled by Wall Street analysts, triggering a wave of panic selling that spread across the entire chipmaking sector.

    South Korea’s benchmark Kospi Composite Index absorbed the full brunt of the selling pressure, sinking 8% to 5,547.77 by the midpoint of the daily trading session. Industry peer Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest memory chip manufacturer, could not escape the rout, with its share price falling 8% to add more downward momentum to the broader index.

    The negative sentiment spilled over across regional markets, leaving most major Asian benchmarks in the red by the middle of the trading day. Japan’s Nikkei 225, one of the region’s most closely watched large-cap indexes, declined by 1.1% from its previous close. Taiwan’s Taiex, which is heavily weighted toward the global semiconductor industry, fell an even steeper 3.6%. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index also posted a modest loss of 0.5%, extending the broad-based downturn across Asian equity markets.

  • Major banks repay $55m to Aussie mortgage holders over costly offset account failures

    Major banks repay $55m to Aussie mortgage holders over costly offset account failures

    Australia’s financial regulator has uncovered systemic banking errors that have left thousands of mortgage borrowers overpaying on their home loans, forcing eight major national and international lenders to issue $55 million in compensation to affected customers. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the country’s corporate financial watchdog, launched a targeted review of 204,000 home loans finalized between March and August 2023, examining accounts across eight leading institutions: AMP Bank, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, Great Southern Bank (formerly CUA), HSBC, ING, Macquarie, and Westpac.

    The review revealed critical flaws in how banks managed mortgage offset accounts – financial products marketed to customers as a reliable tool to cut long-term interest costs by linking a savings account balance directly to a home loan principal. ASIC found that many lenders lacked functional systems to track whether customers had actually requested an offset account, while others relied on clunky, manual data processes that were prone to human error.

    One glaring example highlighted in the report underscores the hidden harm of these mistakes: when a bank processed a routine modification to a customer’s home loan in April 2023, an administrative error incorrectly disconnected the customer’s offset account from their loan principal. Unbeknownst to the borrower, this mistake led to more than $3,500 in unnecessary extra interest charges over time. In another case, a bank identified a procedural gap that delayed offset account linking by up to 21 days, but failed to update its flawed process for nearly two full years. The regulator also noted that most banks were unnecessarily slow to resolve confirmed errors and issue compensation to wronged customers.

    Offset accounts have grown to become one of the most popular home loan features in Australia. Recent industry data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) shows that 55% of all Australian mortgages – totaling 1.8 million loans – include an offset account, with a collective $349 billion in customer savings held in these products. That figure marks a record high for both the total value of funds and the share of mortgages with offset access.

    While the $55 million in remediation already paid by banks marks a significant correction, ASIC has warned that the low number of failures self-reported by banks may not reflect the full scale of the problem. Many affected borrowers have no idea they are being overcharged, because monthly repayment amounts often remain unchanged – the only difference is a higher total interest paid over the life of the loan and a slower payoff timeline. ASIC Chair Sarah Court emphasized that this hidden impact creates a double burden for customers.

    “When offset accounts don’t operate correctly, the harm can be hidden. Loan repayments stay the same, while customers unknowingly pay more interest and take longer to repay their loan,” Court explained. “Customers are doubly hit – not only losing promised interest savings but also the opportunity to use that money elsewhere.” Court added that offset accounts often come with additional costs for customers, making it all the more critical that banks deliver on the benefits they promise. She called on all Australian lending institutions to implement stronger internal controls to correctly set up and manage offset accounts, proactively identify existing errors, and fully compensate any customers who have been harmed.

    Industry observers have echoed the regulator’s concerns, urging all mortgage holders to proactively check their own offset account status. Sally Tindall, director of data insights at comparison site Canstar, described the ASIC findings as deeply worrying, noting that customers put enormous trust in banks to correctly manage their largest regular monthly expense. “The report is a disappointing but important reminder that borrowers shouldn’t assume everything is ticking along in the background,” Tindall said.

  • Airbus completes record 24-hour flight with plane to be used by Qantas

    Airbus completes record 24-hour flight with plane to be used by Qantas

    A specially adapted Airbus A350-1000ULR has completed a historic 24-hour-plus non-stop test flight, landing in Toulouse, France on Tuesday after departing from Melbourne, Australia. The milestone flight clears a key regulatory and technical hurdle ahead of the aircraft’s entry into Australian carrier Qantas’ fleet starting next year, bringing the airline’s decade-long ambition of offering non-stop service between Australia and major Western hubs one step closer to reality.

    The aircraft covered 23,076 kilometers (14,339 miles) across three continents and two oceans, experiencing two full sunset and sunrise cycles during the journey. The flight drew widespread global aviation industry attention, becoming one of the most tracked routes on popular flight monitoring platform Flightradar24.

    The “ULR” designation on the plane stands for “ultra long range”, a capability enabled by a custom 20,000-litre rear center fuel tank added to the base A350-1000 airframe. The return Melbourne-to-Toulouse flight logged a total flight time of exactly 24 hours and 24 minutes, following an initial outbound leg from Toulouse to Melbourne one week earlier that covered 17,000 kilometers in 19 hours and 12 minutes. The return itinerary was intentionally designed to replicate the flight path the aircraft will follow when it enters commercial passenger service.

    Qantas has scheduled delivery of its first A350-1000ULR for April 2024, with 11 additional aircraft set to join the fleet afterward. The jets will power the airline’s long-planned “Project Sunrise”, which aims to launch non-stop commercial service between Sydney and London by October 2027, followed by a second non-stop route linking Sydney and New York City.

    The 12-person test crew included eight Airbus test pilots, two Qantas operating pilots, and two Airbus aeronautical engineers. During the flight, the team collected data on a series of key technical metrics: the structural integrity of the modified airframe built to accommodate the extra fuel tank, the performance of new cabin soundproofing modifications, and the efficiency of the aircraft’s in-cabin air circulation system.

    Qantas first announced Project Sunrise nine years ago, but the initiative has faced repeated delays amid regulatory reviews and supply chain disruptions. Currently, the world’s longest active commercial flight is Singapore Airlines’ non-stop route between Singapore and New York, which covers 15,350 kilometers with a flight time of more than 18 hours, operated by a different variant of the A350 family. Once launched, Qantas’ new ultra-long-haul routes will extend the world’s longest commercial flight time by more than six hours, opening a new era of long-distance air travel.

  • Australia Post report finds online spending rose 14 per cent as shoppers waited for sales and discounts

    Australia Post report finds online spending rose 14 per cent as shoppers waited for sales and discounts

    Against a backdrop of persistent cost-of-living strain across Australian households, new data has revealed that the nation’s eCommerce sector continues to grow robustly, with consumers pouring $21.9 billion into online purchases over the final quarter of the 2025-26 financial year.

    Released by Australia Post in its latest Quarterly eCommerce Report, the figures show a 14% year-on-year increase in total online spending, a surge driven largely by popular end-of-financial-year discount events and a permanent industry shift toward deal-focused consumer behavior. Over the three-month survey period, roughly 9.3 million Australian households made at least one online purchase, underscoring how deeply digital shopping has become embedded in daily life even as ongoing budget pressures force families to rethink how they allocate their disposable income.

    Chelsea O’Reilly, Australia Post’s general manager of parcel, post and eCommerce services, noted that today’s Australian shoppers are approaching every purchase with far greater intentionality than in years past. “Shoppers are thinking more carefully about every purchase. They’re comparing options, chasing value, waiting for the right offer and expecting convenience at every step,” O’Reilly explained. This new, deliberate approach to spending is clearly visible in checkout data, which shows the average online transaction size has dropped to a record low of $90 per basket.

    “Average basket sizes have fallen to a record low, showing consumers remain willing to spend, but they’re becoming far more deliberate about how they do it,” O’Reilly added.

    The shift toward value-focused shopping has also reshaped how consumers interact with seasonal sales. New survey data included in the report finds that nearly 60% of Australian shoppers now refuse to buy most items at full price, while a matching 58% say they actively enjoy building anticipation for major national discount events. These patterns indicate that planned discount periods are no longer an occasional opportunity for savings, but a core part of how most households structure their monthly and quarterly spending budgets.

    Breaking down spending by category, online marketplaces captured the single largest share of consumer expenditure over the quarter, pulling in $5.1 billion to account for 42% of all online purchases. Food and liquor ranked as the second-largest category with $4.4 billion in online spending, followed by fashion goods at $3.1 billion.

    The report also confirms the growing impact of the so-called “Lipstick Effect” in Australian retail – a well-documented economic pattern where consumers pull back on big-ticket discretionary purchases, but continue to spend on small, low-cost indulgences that boost mood without straining tight budgets. In the current climate, this translates to many households postponing large, expensive purchases like new appliances or furniture while still treating themselves to affordable small items that fit within their adjusted budgets.

    When sorted by generation, millennials remain the largest group of online spenders in Australia, contributing a total of $7.8 billion in online expenditure over the quarter. Gen X followed closely with $6 billion in spending, while Gen Z consumers spent $3.8 billion. Interestingly, the fastest growth in online spending was recorded among the oldest cohort of Australians, those born before 1946, who posted an 18% year-on-year increase in online spending – outpacing every other demographic group.

    Taken as a whole, the data makes clear that while consumer demand for online retail remains strong in Australia, that demand is evolving to become far more price-conscious and strategically planned than in previous economic cycles. Modern shoppers are devoting more time to comparing product and price options, waiting intentionally for discount events to make purchases, and expecting seamless, convenient service from retailers every time they shop online.

    O’Reilly emphasized that retailers who adapt to these new consumer expectations will be best positioned for long-term success in the shifting market. “Retailers that make shopping simple, deliver on their promises and give customers a reason to come back will be the most successful,” she said. She added that Australia Post is proactively adapting to the changing sector alongside retailers, investing in upgraded services and delivery solutions to support the continued expansion of Australia’s eCommerce ecosystem.

  • Inside Turkey’s plan for world’s largest startup hub at Ataturk Airport

    Inside Turkey’s plan for world’s largest startup hub at Ataturk Airport

    Turn off the main highway onto the access road leading to the international departures wing of Istanbul’s long-decommissioned Ataturk Airport, and the clatter of construction drills mixed with bold new red signage above the entrance immediately sparks nostalgia for the site’s storied past. For more than six decades, from the 1950s through its full commercial closure in 2018, this sprawling aviation hub anchored Turkey’s connections to the world, welcoming and sending millions of passengers to every corner of the globe. Today, after sitting dormant for years at the core of Istanbul’s urban transport network, the empty terminal complex is undergoing a radical reinvention.

  • Chip stocks slide in US and Asia as AI jitters rattle investors

    Chip stocks slide in US and Asia as AI jitters rattle investors

    A deepening sell-off in artificial intelligence-linked equities has triggered sharp share drops for leading semiconductor manufacturers across U.S. and Asian markets this week, sending benchmark indexes into steep declines and activating market safety mechanisms.

    On Tuesday morning, South Korea’s primary Kospi Index saw trading temporarily suspended after plummeting 8% early in the session. The 20-minute circuit breaker halt failed to stem the downward momentum, with the index closing down a dramatic 10.8% for the day. The collapse was led by the country’s giant technology and chip sectors: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two of the world’s largest memory chip producers, both recorded declines of more than 13% by market close. This is not the first time the tech-heavy Kospi has triggered a circuit breaker this year; the mechanism is explicitly designed to slow panic-driven selling during periods of extreme market volatility. Year-to-date, the index had surged more than 100% from January to mid-June, but has now surrendered roughly a third of that peak value. South Korean stock markets have seen unusually high volatility in recent months, driven by a flood of new retail investors entering the market.

    The global AI stock downturn was sparked by Monday’s trading on Wall Street, where leading AI chip designer Nvidia dropped 5%, erasing its title as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company and handing the top position back to Apple. The decline came following a Wall Street Journal report that Nvidia is in advanced discussions to contribute up to $250 billion to a massive data center infrastructure project developed in partnership with OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. The BBC has reached out to both Nvidia and OpenAI to request comment on the reported deal.

    SK Hynix, which held a record-breaking initial public offering on the Nasdaq just three weeks ago, saw its U.S.-listed shares drop 7.5% on Monday, falling well below its $149 per share offer price. Across the East China Sea, Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 index followed the regional downward trend, closing nearly 4% lower on Tuesday. Apple, which has seen its shares climb roughly 25% so far this year, benefited from Nvidia’s decline to retake the top valuation spot.

    Jun Bei Liu, founder of investment advisory firm Ten Cap, told the BBC that two key factors are driving the pullback: growing investor anxiety over the massive volumes of capital flowing into AI development, and rising competition from Chinese chip manufacturers. Against this uncertain backdrop, Liu noted that institutional investors are currently “taking some profit off the table” after the months-long AI stock rally, but many plan to reinvest in AI-related equities following the upcoming U.S. holiday season.

    In a striking contrast to the broader global sell-off, China’s largest domestic memory chip manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) saw its shares skyrocket nearly 470% during its trading debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Monday. The firm produces dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, a critical component for AI data centers, smartphones, personal computers, tablets and a wide range of other consumer electronics. CXMT announced it plans to allocate the majority of proceeds from its IPO to expanding production capacity and accelerating research and development into next-generation memory chip technologies.

  • Reserve Bank governor’s words lift ASX 200 after early market losses

    Reserve Bank governor’s words lift ASX 200 after early market losses

    Australia’s benchmark share index staged a remarkable afternoon comeback on Tuesday, erasing early losses to close firmly in positive territory, driven by a carefully watched speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock and a fresh drop in global oil prices. By the closing bell, the ASX 200 had climbed 53.80 points, or 0.60%, to settle at 8947.80, while the broader All Ordinaries index gained 48.20 points, or 0.53%, to reach 9112.00. Alongside the market uptick, the Australian dollar weakened slightly to 69.70 U.S. cents.

    Nine out of the 11 tracked industry sectors closed the session in positive territory, with consumer discretionary stocks leading the charge. Retail heavyweight Wesfarmers saw its shares rise 2.08% to $89.22, electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi gained 2.20% to hit $78.15, and travel agency Flight Centre jumped 5.07% to $12.64. The healthcare sector also posted robust gains: biotech firm CSL rose 2.69% to $119.52, medical device maker ResMed climbed 3.39% to $28.95, and pathology provider Sonic Healthcare gained 2.85% to $22.01.

    The only major headwind to the market’s rally came from the mining sector, where large-cap resources stocks pulled back on the day. BHP Group fell 1.21% to $59.37, Rio Tinto dropped 2.48% to $159.53, and Fortescue Metals edged 0.53% lower to $18.70, offsetting a portion of the gains across other sectors.

    The primary catalyst for the market’s turnaround was Bullock’s speech, in which she outlined that domestic demand growth is slowing faster than the central bank previously projected, alongside a weakening labour market and a greater-than-expected slowdown in the housing sector. Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, noted that the remarks calmed investor fears of aggressive near-term interest rate hikes, even as the RBA retained its official hawkish bias. The RBA board has repeatedly stated it stands ready to raise the cash rate further if required to hit its inflation mandate.

    “While the RBA’s hawkish bias remains — ‘The Board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed’ — the governor noted that demand growth is moderating broadly as expected and that the housing market has softened by more than the Bank had anticipated in May,” Sycamore explained. Combined with the latest drop in oil prices, markets are now only pricing in a 5 basis point rate hike at the RBA’s August policy meeting, with a full 25 basis point increase not fully priced in until March 2027. That said, Sycamore emphasized that Wednesday’s release of June quarter inflation data will be a critical data point for future rate expectations.

    A second supporting factor for the market uptick was a further 0.9% fall in Brent Crude prices, which dropped to $US87.56 per barrel. The decline followed comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who revealed that peace talks between Washington and Tehran have resumed, easing geopolitical risks that have put upward pressure on energy prices in recent weeks.

    In individual company news, online travel firm Web Travel was the day’s top performer, with shares surging 17.08% to $3.29 after the company announced a $90 million share buyback program and upgraded its first half EBITDA forecast to a range of $80 million to $86 million. Electronics retailer Harvey Norman also gained 2.33% to $4.83, even after a court ordered the company to pay $35 million in penalties over a deceptive advertising campaign. On the downside, defence technology firm Droneshield dropped 13.22% to $1.80 after the company reported first half revenue of $125.8 million but confirmed that profit margins had shrunk from 65% a year earlier to 60% amid ongoing industry headwinds.

  • Asian shares slip and South Korea’s Kospi index sinks 10% on heavy selling of chipmaking stocks

    Asian shares slip and South Korea’s Kospi index sinks 10% on heavy selling of chipmaking stocks

    A wave of widespread selling swept through Asian equity markets on Tuesday, driven by growing investor jitters over the future trajectory of the red-hot artificial intelligence boom, which sent South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index plummeting more than 10% by midday trading. The sharp downturn, heavily concentrated in top domestic chipmaking stocks that have led recent regional market gains on AI demand optimism, triggered an automatic temporary trading halt as the index slid to its lowest level since April.

    By midday session, the Kospi stood 10.5% lower at 6,051.19, with industry giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading the collapse. Samsung’s share price tumbled 12% from Monday’s close, while SK Hynix dropped an even steeper 12.7% as investors rushed to exit positions in AI-linked semiconductor assets.
    Market analysts point to shifting competitive dynamics in the global chip sector as a core catalyst for the sudden selloff. Fears are growing that rising competition from Chinese AI startups and domestic memory chipmakers could erode the outsized profit gains that have pushed share prices of global chip giants to record highs during the 2023-2024 AI frenzy. These concerns were amplified by a blockbuster trading debut for Chinese memory chipmaker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) on Monday, when its share price surged 466% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR Market, a tech-focused board for innovative domestic firms. CXMT raised at least $8.6 billion through its initial public offering, marking one of the largest global tech listings of the year and underscoring the rapidly growing scale of China’s homegrown semiconductor industry.
    The selling pressure spilled across most of the Asia-Pacific region on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225, which has also rallied sharply on AI optimism in recent months, dropped 4% to 62,350.18, while Taiwan’s Taiex — home to many of the world’s top contract chip manufacturers — slid 3.9%. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged a modest 0.1% lower to 25,178.21. Bucking the regional downward trend, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.6% to close at 8,944.40.
    Beyond equities, global oil prices extended their retreat, falling more than 1% amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. For three consecutive days, neither the United States nor Iran has launched new military strikes, and regional mediators report incremental progress in pushing the two sides toward renewed negotiations. By Tuesday afternoon, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, fell 0.8% to $85.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.9% to $81.86 per barrel.
    U.S. equity futures showed little change in early Tuesday trading, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street following a mixed close in the previous session. On Monday, the S&P 500 gained less than 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% to mark its fourth consecutive daily loss.

  • Seoul, Tokyo lead Asian plunge as tech stocks suffer fresh rout

    Seoul, Tokyo lead Asian plunge as tech stocks suffer fresh rout

    A fresh wave of selling swept through Asian stock markets on Tuesday, inflicting severe damage on technology and semiconductor shares and sending major indexes in Seoul and Tokyo tumbling. The sell-off was amplified by emerging reports that a Chinese firm has begun mass production of specialized chip manufacturing technology long controlled exclusively by Dutch industry leader ASML, stoking new fears that the multi-year AI-driven boom in chip stocks may be nearing its end.

    South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index plummeted 10.2 percent to close at 6,066.21, with trading halted for 20 minutes mid-session when a market circuit breaker was triggered. Two of the country’s largest chipmakers, SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, suffered near-13 percent single-day losses, and both firms have now shed almost half their value since hitting all-time highs just last month. The Kospi itself has fallen more than 30 percent from its recent peak.

    The sell-off spread quickly across East Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 4.3 percent to 62,159.48, with domestic semiconductor players bearing the brunt of the losses: memory chip maker Kioxia fell 18 percent, while testing equipment manufacturers Advantest and Tokyo Electron both closed 11 percent lower. In Taipei, the local market index slid more than 4 percent dragged down by leading contract chip manufacturer TSMC. Most other regional markets also closed in negative territory, with only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ending the day flat.

    Tuesday’s sharp downturn in Asia extended a global sell-off that began on Wall Street the previous session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.2 percent in New York, with storage firm Sandisk dropping 11 percent and major AI chip suppliers Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia each losing around 5 percent. In Amsterdam, ASML shares shed more than 8 percent following the news of the Chinese production breakthrough.

    Market analysts note that the AI-driven chip rally had already been showing signs of fracturing in recent weeks. Investors have grown increasingly concerned about the massive volumes of capital poured into AI development, with growing questions over when those investments will translate into meaningful profits, and sky-high valuations across the sector have long raised red flags among market watchers.

    “The immediate fundamentals of semiconductors have not collapsed,” wrote Stephen Innes, market strategist at SPI Asset Management, in a research note Tuesday. “Demand for high-bandwidth memory remains strong, hyperscalers are still spending, and the largest technology companies have not yet abandoned their capital expenditure plans.” Innes added that the shift in market sentiment stems from changing investor willingness to value future growth promises at any cost: “The AI trade spent the past several years behaving like a flywheel: rising equity values encouraged more spending, more spending validated higher earnings expectations, and those expectations pushed valuations higher again. Now that same wheel is beginning to throw investors off at speed.”

    All eyes are now on upcoming corporate earnings reports this week, with results due from SK hynix, Samsung, Kioxia, and U.S. tech giants Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Investors are hoping the reports will provide clarity on whether the current sell-off reflects a genuine shift in industry fundamentals or an overcorrection after years of relentless gains.

    The severe downturn in tech stocks overshadowed growing optimism around de-escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran. For a third consecutive day, the two sides paused tit-for-tat retaliatory strikes that began after a diplomatic breakdown over Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. President and leading candidate Donald Trump said Tuesday he believes there is a “good chance” a diplomatic deal can be reached to end the hostilities that began in late February. “I have a lot of patience… We’ll see what happens,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One. Reports also emerged that Oman is mediating talks between Iran and international stakeholders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments pass. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution have already pushed down global oil prices: Brent crude fell more than 8 percent on Monday, and WTI dropped more than 7 percent. Both benchmarks extended losses in Asian trade on Tuesday, with Brent down 1.7 percent to $86.89 per barrel and WTI down 1.8 percent to $81.15 per barrel.

  • Reserve Bank governor signals further rate hikes to tackle high cost of living

    Reserve Bank governor signals further rate hikes to tackle high cost of living

    In her final public appearance ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) August 11 interest rate decision, Governor Michele Bullock has delivered a stark warning to financially strained Australian households, confirming the central bank is ready to lift borrowing costs again if required to curb persistent high inflation.

    Speaking at a fundraising lunch hosted by the Anika Foundation in Sydney, Bullock emphasized the RBA’s unwavering commitment to its statutory mandate: keeping inflation low and stable while supporting maximum employment. “The board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed,” she stated.

    To hit the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target, Bullock acknowledged that a period of slower economic growth will likely be necessary, and the RBA board is willing to accept this outcome. “This does mean that some further easing in the growth of demand is likely to be required if we’re to bring inflation back down sustainably to target,” she explained. “A key question in the period ahead is whether the tightening in monetary policy earlier in the year is sufficient to achieve this.”

    Bullock’s comments come after the RBA held the official cash rate steady at 4.35% in July, following three consecutive rate hikes that added 75 basis points to borrowing costs at the start of 2026. That sequence of increases reversed three rate cuts implemented in 2025.

    The cumulative policy shifts have already impacted the Australian housing market, which is cooling faster than RBA officials projected earlier this year. “The housing market has eased by more than we had anticipated in May,” Bullock noted, attributing the faster slowdown to a mix of targeted housing policy changes and weakening consumer sentiment toward property. Even so, she added that overall price declines have remained modest after years of rapid growth.

    Global geopolitical tension has also compounded domestic cost-of-living pressures, Bullock confirmed, pointing to the ongoing war in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran as a major disruptive force for global energy markets. Even before the conflict erupted, however, Australia’s inflation rate was already on an upward trajectory, she clarified.

    Since the war began, global benchmark crude oil prices have swung dramatically: jumping from roughly $US56 per barrel to a peak of $US120 per barrel before stabilizing near $US90 per barrel. Every $US10 per barrel rise in crude adds approximately 10 cents per liter to Australian fuel costs, though most Australian motorists have been shielded from the worst volatility thanks to a temporary 50% cut to the national fuel excise, which reduces prices by 32 cents per liter.

    Bullock emphasized that despite the added complexity from the global oil shock, the RBA’s core policy goals remain unchanged. “The full effects of increases in the cash rate from earlier in the year will take time to materialise, and even if the renewed disruption to oil supply abates quickly, underlying inflation is still expected to be higher as fuel price rises flow through to other prices,” she said.

    The governor’s warning comes just days ahead of the release of June quarter inflation data, scheduled for Wednesday. Financial markets currently forecast that the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean inflation measure – which strips out volatile price movements for items like fuel – will come in between 3.7% and 3.8% annually, matching the RBA’s projections released in May. That would mark an increase from the 3.5% annual rate recorded in the 12 months to March.

    AMP chief economist Shane Oliver told NewsWire that a higher-than-expected inflation reading would almost certainly trigger a rate hike next month. “The RBA’s forecast for the June quarter is a headline inflation figure of 3.8 per cent, so if the figure comes in above that I think it would scare the Reserve Bank,” Oliver said. “I think a number of 3.9 per cent would be a level that makes a tightening next month almost certain.”

    Oliver added that delayed second-round impacts from the Middle East oil shock are likely to push up Australia’s annual inflation rate for the June quarter. “The first-round effect (of the war) is the flow-on to petrol prices at the bowser, which is not quite instantaneous but is usually felt within a few weeks, whereas the flow-on effects to paints, plastics, fertilisers and so on take a lot longer to show up,” he explained.