分类： business

Global financial markets kicked off the trading week on a mixed note Monday, as a relentless surge in artificial intelligence demand drove benchmark indices in Japan and South Korea to unprecedented all-time highs, while volatility persisted in energy markets amid ongoing negotiations over an extended Iran war ceasefire.

The wave of investor optimism surrounding AI’s long-term growth trajectory lifted technology and semiconductor stocks across Asia, pushing two of the region’s most closely watched benchmarks into uncharted territory during intraday trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed more than 1.3% to close at 67,231.28, marking the first time the index has crossed the 67,000 threshold in its history. Leading the rally was SoftBank Group, the Japanese investment conglomerate that has built a massive portfolio of AI-focused assets, whose shares jumped more than 9% after notching a record high in the prior week. Over the past 30 days, the Nikkei 225 has rallied more than 12% as investor appetite for technology exposure continues to grow.

South Korea’s Kospi index matched its regional peer’s historic run, soaring nearly 5% to hit an all-time peak of 8,874.16. Market gains were anchored by Samsung Electronics, the country’s largest corporation and a leading global producer of advanced semiconductors, whose shares rose more than 9%. The stellar performance came as newly released official data showed South Korean exports surged 53% year-over-year in May, powered entirely by booming global demand for memory chips critical to powering AI systems. Over the past month alone, the Kospi has jumped more than 27%, cementing its status as one of the world’s best-performing major indices this year.

Most other Asian markets also posted modest gains on Monday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.9% to 25,408.96, while Taiwan’s Taiex gained 1.4% and India’s Sensex added 0.6%. China’s Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1% to 4,063.72, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1% to 8,720.30, after China released weekend data showing factory activity softened in May due to cooling demand for exports from key global markets.

Beyond the AI-driven stock rally, market movements remained tightly tied to geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the three-month-old Iran war, with investors closely awaiting a decision on a proposed 60-day extension of the current ceasefire. Negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials remained ongoing Monday, with key sticking points including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — the strategic global waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil and natural gas trade. The strait has remained largely closed since the war began, after the U.S. imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports, and a final agreement remains unsettled: U.S. President Donald Trump held high-level talks with advisors last Friday but had not issued a final decision on the ceasefire extension, and Iranian officials have confirmed no deal has been finalized.

Geopolitical tensions pushed energy prices sharply higher on Monday. International benchmark Brent crude climbed 2.4% to $93.33 per barrel, up from roughly $70 per barrel in late February just before the war began. U.S. benchmark crude rose 2.8% to $89.76 per barrel. U.S. stock futures edged higher in pre-market trading, extending a record-breaking rally that lifted all three major Wall Street indices to new highs last Friday. The S&P 500 notched its seventh consecutive daily gain, climbing 0.2% to close at 7,580.06, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 51,032.46 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite gained 0.2% to 26,972.62.

The U.S. rally was also powered by AI-linked technology names: Dell Technologies surged 32.8% after posting stronger-than-expected quarterly results and raising its full-year outlook on the back of booming AI demand, while Microsoft added more than 5.4% and chipmaker Broadcom gained 4.7%.

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar appreciated slightly against the Japanese yen, rising to 159.48 yen from 159.25 yen in prior trading. The euro edged lower to $1.1645, down from $1.1667.

Market analysts note that while the AI boom has created a powerful, broad-based rally across global equity markets, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around the Iran conflict continues to act as a headwind, keeping energy prices volatile and pushing investors toward safe-haven assets at intervals. Even so, sustained strong demand for AI-related semiconductors and services has offset much of that uncertainty, keeping stock indices on an upward trajectory through the first half of the year.

On May 29, 2026, a landmark academic and industry collaboration took center stage in Southwest China’s Chongqing, as the inauguration ceremony for the Robert C. Merton Nobel Laureate Workstation was held at the Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications (CQUPT). The new initiative brings together leading academic expertise, pioneering technical strengths, and industry practice to advance innovation at the intersection of financial theory and digital technology.

Robert C. Merton, the 1997 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, is a globally respected pioneer whose work reshaped modern financial scholarship. A member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and longtime professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Merton is widely recognized as a foundational figure in modern financial theory, earning the informal title of the “Father of Options Pricing” for his transformative contributions to the field.

Speaking at the inauguration event, Merton shared his excitement for the collaborative project, emphasizing his commitment to bridging advanced research and real-world problem solving. “I’m looking forward to being a part of that and helping to see that happen here in western China, and beyond,” he said, expressing his anticipation of leveraging cutting-edge science and technology to tackle pressing practical challenges in the financial sector.

The workstation is a tripartite partnership between CQUPT, Merton himself, and Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance Co., combining the strengths of academia, world-leading scholarship, and private industry to create a new hub for innovation. For CQUPT, a leading Chinese institution renowned as the birthplace of digital communication in China with more than 70 years of specialized experience in information and communication technology, the collaboration represents a strategic alignment of institutional strengths. The university’s pioneering work in granular computing theory has already earned significant global recognition, laying a solid foundation for integrating digital innovation with financial research.

Li Lin, Party secretary of CQUPT, outlined the institution’s vision for the new workstation at the ceremony. “We will use this workstation as an opportunity to further integrate Professor Merton’s cutting-edge financial theories with our university’s strengths in disciplines like artificial intelligence,” Li stated. He added that the initiative will foster the development of a specialized talent hub for digital finance and an open platform for international academic dialogue, strengthen cross-border scholarly exchange and cooperation, deepen the integration of academic education and industrial practice, and contribute targeted expertise to the development of Chongqing’s ambition as a major financial center in Western China.

Following the official unveiling of the workstation, a formal appointment ceremony was held. Merton was named an Honorary Professor of CQUPT, while Azita Sharif, a key member of Merton’s research team and a bioethics researcher at Harvard Medical School, was appointed as a Visiting Professor at the university.

To coincide with the inauguration, CQUPT also hosted the Symposium on AI-Empowered Western Financial Center Construction, which brought together scholars and industry leaders to explore critical topics at the intersection of AI, finance, and regional development. The symposium featured keynote addresses from leading voices: Merton presented on the journey “From Finance Theory to Financial Innovation Practice”; CQUPT Professor Xia Shuyin shared research on “Granular Ball Computing Theory and Its Driven Merton Economic Theoretical Model”; and Liu Yi, Chief Information Officer of Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance Co., outlined the company’s “Exploration and Practice of AI-Enabled Financial Consumer Protection.”

The launch of the workstation marks a key milestone in advancing digital finance innovation in Western China, creating new pathways for cross-sector collaboration between global academic expertise and domestic technological and industrial capabilities.

As the Northern Hemisphere’s summer travel season approaches, Southeast Asia’s tourism-reliant economies are grappling with cascading economic shocks stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran, compounding the slow, incomplete recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic that has stretched across the last five years. The combination of skyrocketing energy prices, persistent ceasefire uncertainties and disrupted global supply chains has put the region’s most critical revenue-generating season in serious jeopardy.

The conflict has sent global jet fuel prices surging to multi-year highs, while persistent instability in the Persian Gulf has forced major regional and international carriers to slash flight capacity, revise flight routes and raise ticket prices sharply. Early in the conflict, widespread airspace closures across the Persian Gulf and intermittent shutdowns of key Gulf airports eliminated vital layover points for long-haul flights heading to Asia, forcing carriers to divert to longer, far more fuel-intensive routes that drive up operational costs exponentially.

Major airlines across the Asia-Pacific have already implemented deep cuts to their flight schedules. Vietnam Airlines, Malaysian budget carrier AirAsia Group, Hong Kong’s flagship carrier Cathay Pacific and multiple European airlines have all been squeezed by rising fuel costs and reduced demand, resulting in widespread cancellations and schedule adjustments. To offset inflated fuel expenses, carriers have implemented dramatic hikes to fuel surcharges: Cathay Pacific raised its medium-haul fuel surcharge from HK$264 ($34) before the conflict to HK$33 ($80), while long-haul surcharges jumped from HK$569 ($73) to HK$1,362 ($174). Lavinia Lau, Cathay Pacific’s chief customer and commercial officer, confirmed that jet fuel prices remain at extremely elevated levels that have intensified cost pressures, adding that more travelers are booking trips far closer to departure dates – a clear indicator of growing consumer unease about travel costs and stability.

For many international travelers, the steep rise in airfares has derailed long-planned summer trips to the region. Sandra Awodele, a Washington D.C.-based freelance travel writer who had been planning to cross a Southeast Asian trip off her bucket list this summer, scrapped her plans for a two-week Thailand vacation after seeing current airfare prices. “I looked at flight options and that’s where it ended,” she said.

The pain of the current crisis is not limited to airlines and travelers – it ripples all the way through local tourism-focused economies, hitting frontline workers and small business owners hardest. For 58-year-old Siv Pech, a tuk-tuk driver in Siem Reap, Cambodia – home to the iconic centuries-old Angkor Wat temple complex that draws millions of visitors annually – daily earnings that once reached up to $20 have plummeted to roughly $5 a day, with half of that sum eaten up by rising gasoline costs. “Some days, I don’t earn even a cent,” Pech said. “With gasoline prices rising and tourism declining, how can we make money?”

Sokha Sambo, owner of the popular Sambo Khmer & Thai Restaurant in Siem Reap, faces similar strains: the price of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking has surged, squeezing margins so tightly that she struggles to cover payroll for her 14 employees. “I’m worried about gas and goods inflation. It makes the business less profitable and difficult to cover employees’ salaries,” Sambo said. Official data from Siem Reap’s tourism department shows that recorded international and domestic visitor numbers dropped 37.5% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026, a decline that has impacted every sector of the local economy. “This has greatly affected all of us,” Sambo added.

In Thailand, one of Southeast Asia’s most visited destinations, official data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports confirms that overall visitor numbers fell 7% year-on-year in April, with arrivals from Europe dropping nearly 16% and arrivals from the Middle East plummeting 57%. Le Tuyet Lan, who operates bed-and-breakfast properties in Vietnam’s Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, noted that travel is always the first discretionary expense households cut when economic conditions worsen. In times of crisis, she explained, luxury travelers shift to mid-tier accommodations, mid-range travelers opt for budget options, leaving the lowest tier of the market – made up largely of small local operators – the most exposed. “This will disrupt the whole industry,” she said.

Tourism has long served as the economic lifeline for most developing Southeast Asian nations, accounting for nearly 11% of total gross domestic product across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in pre-pandemic 2019, according to data from the World Travel and Tourism Council. Today, it contributes almost 13% of GDP in Thailand, 9% in Vietnam, and supports millions of jobs across Cambodia, while bringing critical foreign currency to import-dependent economies across the region. That revenue is more vital than ever, as the war-driven spike in global oil prices has pushed up fuel import costs for nations that depend on the Strait of Hormuz, off Iran’s coast, for the vast majority of their oil and gas imports.

Economic analysts warn that the cumulative shock of two major crises – the COVID-19 pandemic just five years ago, followed by the current conflict-driven energy crunch – could push hundreds of vulnerable tourism businesses to collapse before demand eventually rebounds. “This, happening within five years of each other, first the pandemic and now the war, is horrible for the tourism industry,” said Jitsai Santaputra, a Bangkok-based analyst with energy consulting firm The Lantau Group. “The war will determine which tourism businesses can survive long enough to benefit from the eventual return of travelers.”

Forecasts from major financial institutions paint a grim picture for regional growth: Moody’s Analytics estimates that conflict-related spillovers will reduce overall economic growth across the Asia-Pacific by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points in 2026. “The conflict will weigh on growth mainly through higher production costs and consumer prices, along with weaker external demand from trade and tourism,” said Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank. A recent report from the United Nations Development Program echoed that warning, noting that higher airfares and falling travel confidence can rapidly spill over to erode household livelihoods and cut public revenues in economies where tourism is the primary source of jobs, income and foreign exchange.

China’s top financial policymakers are currently grappling with a uniquely challenging policy dilemma that sits at the heart of the country’s long-term financial development goals. On one hand, Beijing has made clear its ambition to secure deeper, more integrated access to global capital markets, advance the internationalization of the renminbi, and build a world-class, transparent financial market infrastructure that can earn lasting trust and confidence from international investors across the globe. On the other, history offers a stark warning: decades of financial liberalization across other major emerging economies have repeatedly sparked devastating bouts of financial instability, from catastrophic currency crises to mass capital flight and the permanent erosion of domestic monetary policy independence.

For decades, China has approached this challenge with a deliberate strategy of controlled caution, observing past crises from the sidelines while opening its financial system at a gradual, self-determined pace. This approach proved critical to shielding China’s rapidly growing economy from external volatility during its foundational decades of economic expansion, helping it avoid the meltdowns that derailed growth in many peer emerging markets.

Conventional policy discourse on this issue typically frames the choice as an binary one: either accelerate full capital account opening and accept the accompanying systemic risks, or maintain tight controls and accept the long-term constraints that closed systems place on market development. However, both of these dominant frameworks miss the more critical question at hand: the debate should not focus on how open China’s capital account should be, but rather on how the overall system governing cross-border capital flows should be structured to balance openness and stability.

Brazil offers a particularly instructive case study of the risks of poorly structured capital account opening. Brazil maintains one of the most open capital account regimes in the world, a policy framework that in economic theory should deliver efficient capital allocation and deep, seamless integration with global financial markets. In practice, however, this unstructured openness leaves the country permanently vulnerable to external shocks: every time the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts its monetary policy stance or global risk sentiment shifts to risk-off mode, massive volumes of capital flood out of Brazil, regardless of the strength of the country’s domestic economic fundamentals. This outflow triggers sharp currency depreciation, sudden domestic financial tightening, and painful economic contractions that hit at the exact moment when the domestic economy is already weakening. Brazil has been trapped in this volatile cycle repeatedly, and the root cause is not the openness of its capital account itself, but its one-size-fits-all structure that does not adapt to changing market conditions. The country lacks a graduated, pre-planned response mechanism, a clear set of adaptive buffers that can soften the blow of sudden shifts in global capital flows.

China has avoided this harmful cycle to date through the extensive use of capital controls, but this approach carries its own significant costs. A dynamic, attractive investment environment depends on consistent, stable rules and broad-based trust among market participants. Uncertainty around future policy automatically generates a risk premium on Chinese assets, making the country’s financial markets less attractive to global investors than its strong economic fundamentals would otherwise warrant. It also acts as a major barrier to the long-term institutional capital commitments that China actively seeks to attract for its long-term growth.

Against this backdrop, a new alternative framework has been proposed that reframes the entire debate: the Adaptive Capital Flow Framework (ACFF), developed by Wall Street veteran Sidney Shauy. The core concept of the ACFF is simple and intuitive: it allows for fully free capital movement during normal market conditions, but introduces gradual, proportional, pre-specified adjustments to capital flows as systemic risk levels rise. Rather than halting capital movements entirely or imposing arbitrary restrictions, the framework slows volatile flows in a predictable manner that avoids market panic.

The framework operates through a composite, data-driven risk measurement tool called the Capital Flow Risk Score (CFRS), which aggregates key indicators including exchange rate volatility, cross-border capital flow velocity, changes in foreign exchange reserves, and broad market stress metrics to classify the current level of systemic risk in real time. As the CFRS crosses pre-defined risk thresholds, pre-planned policy responses are triggered automatically: modest, temporary levies on the most volatile short-term capital flows at the first risk threshold, followed by stronger but still targeted measures at higher risk thresholds. All thresholds, response measures, and scoring rules are published publicly in advance, making the entire system rules-based rather than subject to discretionary policy changes.

Predictability is the cornerstone of this framework, because investor behavior is shaped not just by the existence of capital controls themselves, but by deep uncertainty about when and how controls will be deployed. In a discretionary control regime, investors cannot anticipate policy shifts, which often triggers panic-driven mass exits and preemptive capital withdrawals – creating the exact sort of capital flow instability that controls are intended to prevent. A transparent, rules-based system reverses this dynamic entirely: when global investors know exactly what policies will be deployed under what conditions, they can adjust their investment planning accordingly, and the transparency of the system itself acts as a stabilizing force for markets.

The good news for Chinese policymakers is that much of the infrastructure needed to implement the ACFF is already in place across China’s network of financial pilot zones. These existing testing grounds – including the Hainan Free Trade Port, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, Shenzhen’s Qianhai cooperation zone, and the array of cross-border Connect programs in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area – create a ready-made, real-world laboratory to test and refine the adaptive framework under live market conditions. The Hainan Free Trade Port already operates with near-full capital account openness, while the Greater Bay Area’s Stock Connect, Bond Connect, and Wealth Management Connect programs already provide structured, closely monitored cross-border capital access for global and domestic investors. The digital monitoring infrastructure needed to track capital flow dynamics and calculate the CFRS is also already operational. What is missing is not the physical or institutional infrastructure, but the overarching framework: a set of explicit, publicly disclosed rules that outline how capital flow conditions will be assessed and how policy will respond as those conditions evolve.

China has a long, proven track record of managing complex financial transitions through its tested approach of gradualism, targeted experimentation, and structured scaling of successful policies. The Adaptive Capital Flow Framework aligns perfectly with this long-standing policy tradition. It builds directly on the work China is already doing in its open pilot zones, and adds the single element that has held back deeper engagement with global capital: clear, credible predictability for investors, all while allowing China to retain the ability to adjust controls on its own terms when market conditions require intervention.

For the global investment community, this model offers a clear, compelling path forward. It lets China articulate a clear, transparent vision for its financial opening: here is how our system works, here is our current risk assessment, here is how we will respond if conditions change, and here is the evidence from our pilot programs that the system delivers on its promise of balanced stability and openness.