Global Pulse

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  • Inside an African hotel where asylum seekers deported by the US are imprisoned

    Inside an African hotel where asylum seekers deported by the US are imprisoned

    Beneath the tropical sun off Central Africa’s coast, the Bamy Hotel on Bioko Island looks indistinguishable from any luxury resort from the outside: palm trees frame a sweeping driveway, polished marble lines the foyer, and a stately portrait of Equatorial Guinea’s long-ruling president hangs behind the mahogany front desk. But behind this polished facade, the once-bustling property has been transformed into an improvised prison for asylum seekers, part of a secretive $7.5 million agreement between the authoritarian Equatorial Guinean government and the former Trump administration, an Associated Press investigation has found.

    The AP gained rare access to the site during a recent trip accompanying the first papal visit to the country, making it the only international news outlet to directly report on conditions inside the locked-down hotel. Since the agreement took effect late last year, the property has remained eerily empty of the tourists and business travelers it was built to host. Only a small cohort of detainees, all asylum seekers deported from the United States, remain confined within its walls, held against their will far from their home countries.

    According to legal representatives for the detainees, at least 32 people have been held at the Bamy Hotel since November. Every single one had already received formal protection from deportation by U.S. judges, who ruled they faced grave danger if forced to return to their home nations across Africa. To date, 25 of these protected asylum seekers have already been forcibly transferred back to the countries they fled, while the remaining detainees face relentless pressure from Equatorial Guinean authorities to agree to repatriation.

    Immigration legal experts describe these third-country deportation deals as a deliberate legal loophole crafted by the Trump administration to bypass U.S. asylum protections. Rather than directly deporting at-risk seekers back to dangerous home countries in violation of U.S. court orders, the administration instead sends them to intermediate nations like Equatorial Guinea, where authorities can then force them to complete the journey home.

    As an authoritarian state with widespread reports of human rights abuses, Equatorial Guinea restricts nearly all access for foreign independent journalists, making on-the-ground reporting extremely rare. What the AP found inside the hotel is a surreal blend of luxury accommodation and psychological torture: detainees wander empty, ornate corridors, staring out at a shimmering swimming pool they are barred from using, trapped in a country most had never heard of before their arrival. Men and women from Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Mauritania make up the detainee population, and all have reported no physical abuse — but overwhelming psychological distress from the constant threat of forced return to countries where they face persecution, imprisonment or death.

    “I am scared and depressed,” a 26-year-old East African detainee told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity out of fear of retaliation, like the two other detainees interviewed for this report. Because of his ethnicity and his previous activism in his home country, he said he is certain he will be killed if he is forced to return. Human rights experts confirm all detainees held at Bamy Hotel face a high risk of severe persecution upon repatriation.

    The Trump administration’s third-country deportation strategy has resulted in thousands of asylum seekers being sent to roughly 24 nations not their own, according to advocacy group Third Country Deportation Watch. Most of these partner nations are in the developing world, with roughly a dozen located across Africa. Immigration policy experts say nations like Equatorial Guinea agree to take these detainees to earn political and economic goodwill from the U.S. in ongoing negotiations over trade, foreign aid and migration policy.

    The daily routine for detainees is mundane, the 26-year-old detainee recounted, but made deeply unsettling by the surreal setting and constant uncertainty. Detainees sleep in high-end hotel rooms that are rarely cleaned, and eat rice and meat at linen-covered tables in the closed hotel restaurant. After falling ill multiple times from contaminated food, the East African man said he now eats only the absolute minimum to survive. A local local lawyer provides basic supplies: new toothbrushes, cellphone SIM cards, and sanitary products for female detainees. Medical care is inconsistent at best: when the man developed an eye problem, he was taken to a hospital quickly, but when he contracted malaria and typhoid, authorities waited until his condition had severely deteriorated before arranging care, leaving him severely weakened and requiring intravenous treatment.

    The psychological abuse is even more severe. When the man recently complained to a local police officer about his unlawful detention, the officer responded by telling him his problems would end if he simply went to the fourth floor and jumped out a window. “What can I do now? It’s become worse,” he said, his frail body shaking as he spoke. “I started losing my mind.”

    The relationship between the U.S. and Equatorial Guinea is a complicated one, defined by deep economic ties even as U.S. officials repeatedly condemn the country’s abysmal human rights record and systemic corruption. A former Spanish colony, Equatorial Guinea descended into economic chaos after gaining independence in 1968, but the discovery of massive offshore oil reserves in the 1990s, developed largely by U.S. energy companies, turned the country into one of Africa’s wealthiest by per capita GDP. Almost all of that oil-fueled wealth has been siphoned off by long-ruling President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and his family, rights groups report. His son and heir apparent, Vice President Teodoro “Teodorin” Obiang Nguema, openly flaunts his corrupt fortune on social media, posting videos of private jet travel, infinity pool vacations and lobster feasts — even though the platform is banned for ordinary Equatorial Guinean citizens.

    International sanctions were previously levied against Teodorin Obiang over his role in systemic corruption, but the U.S. lifted those sanctions just weeks before the first deportees arrived at Bamy Hotel, allowing him to travel to New York for a high-level U.N. meeting. Today, U.S. companies remain Equatorial Guinea’s largest foreign investors, and the U.S. government funds military training for the country’s security forces. Independent dissent is virtually non-existent: the Obiang administration has been repeatedly accused by the U.S. State Department and global human rights groups of detaining, torturing and extrajudicially killing political opponents.

    For the remaining detainees at Bamy Hotel, every day brings new uncertainty: they know they could be deported at any time. The U.N. International Organization for Migration and the U.N. refugee agency visited the hotel in November and promised detainees they would return to assist with their cases. They have not been back since. The 26-year-old East African man is the only remaining detainee who has been allowed to meet with legal representation. Though Equatorial Guinea has no formal asylum framework, his lawyer submitted a formal asylum request to the prime minister’s office, a long-shot attempt to secure his release. He was told he would need to beg for mercy directly from Vice President Teodorin Obiang, and his claim was ultimately rejected. The next morning, authorities deported five other detainees, and told him he would be next.

    Neither the Trump administration nor the Obiang administration responded to requests for comment on the $7.5 million deal or the conditions at the Bamy Hotel. A State Department spokesperson offered only a broad statement: “we remain unwavering in our commitment to end illegal and mass immigration.”

  • A fire at a girls’ school in central Kenya causes deaths and injuries

    A fire at a girls’ school in central Kenya causes deaths and injuries

    GILGIL, Kenya — A devastating overnight blaze broke out at a public girls’ boarding school in central Kenya early Thursday, leaving multiple people dead and others injured, as emergency crews and law enforcement teams continue working to locate every student and staff member unaccounted for. The fire ignited in the student dormitory block at Utumishi Girls School, located roughly 120 kilometers northwest of Kenya’s capital city Nairobi, in the Gilgil region. Local police confirmed they are heading up the multi-agency rescue and emergency response operation that launched immediately after the fire was reported. As of Thursday afternoon, officials have not released an official, confirmed count of casualties. An initial internal government incident assessment has placed the death toll at a minimum of 15, with dozens of injured people already transported to nearby regional hospitals for urgent medical care. The exact origin and cause of the fire remain under active investigation, with no preliminary conclusions shared by authorities as of press time. Tragic school dormitory fires are a persistent, recurring crisis across Kenya’s boarding school system. Past blazes have been linked to a range of causes, from malicious arson attacks to unaddressed faulty electrical wiring that creates fire hazards in aging campus buildings. The deadliest school fire in Kenya’s recent modern history occurred in 2001, when a dormitory blaze in Machakos County claimed the lives of 67 sleeping students. Just this year, in 2024, another deadly fire at a central Kenya boarding school killed 21 students, prompting President William Ruto to declare a national three-day period of mourning for the victims. Prior deadly incidents include a 2017 Nairobi school fire that killed 10 students, which ended in a student being charged with murder in connection with the blaze.

  • Colombians will vote in a high-stakes test of Gustavo Petro’s agenda

    Colombians will vote in a high-stakes test of Gustavo Petro’s agenda

    As Colombian voters prepare to head to the polls on May 29 for a high-stakes presidential election, the entire political project of outgoing President Gustavo Petro hangs in the balance. Widely framed as a national referendum on Petro’s four years of progressive reform and unconventional peace efforts, the vote will shape the country’s social, economic and security trajectory for the coming term. If no candidate secures an absolute majority of votes, a runoff between the top two contenders will be held on June 21.

    Petro, a 66-year-old former member of the 1970s and 1980s M-19 guerrilla movement that fought for systemic social justice, leaves office after a term defined by polarizing policy shifts. Domestically, he pushed through sweeping social and economic overhauls — including a major rewrite of Colombia’s labor laws — while pursuing controversial peace negotiations with the small rebel and criminal groups that remain active in the country’s rural regions. On the global stage, Petro broke with decades of conventional Colombian foreign policy, openly challenging U.S. approaches to drug prohibition and border management while maintaining limited targeted cooperation with Washington on these issues. As he put it ahead of the vote, the election will answer a core question: “the people will decide if the revolution is defeated or if it moves forward.”

    Barred from seeking reelection by Colombia’s constitutional term limits, Petro’s left-wing Historical Pact coalition has tapped three-term senator Iván Cepeda as its standard-bearer. The 63-year-old candidate built his political career advocating for victims of state-sponsored violence during Colombia’s decades-long internal conflict, and has pledged to double down on Petro’s signature reforms. If elected, Cepeda says he will expand on the outgoing administration’s policies, which included a 23% jump in the national minimum wage this year alone and higher tax burdens on wealthy individuals and large corporations. He also plans to continue peace talks with remaining armed groups, and boost rural development through subsidized lending for small-scale farmers via a state-owned bank.

    Cepeda’s most divisive campaign promise centers on potential constitutional change: he has committed to seeking a broad national consensus for reform, but has also threatened to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite Colombia’s constitution if agreement cannot be reached. Critics warn this move would erode the independence of Congress and the judiciary, posing a fundamental threat to the country’s democratic institutions.

    Three candidates have emerged as clear frontrunners from a field of 14 total contenders, turning the race into a tight three-way contest. Cepeda’s leading rivals are Paloma Valencia, a 48-year-old senator from the Democratic Center party founded by influential former President Álvaro Uribe, and independent candidate Abelardo “The Tiger” de la Espriella, a 47-year-old outspoken lawyer who campaigns as a political outsider unaligned with any major traditional party.

    Valencia’s campaign enjoys the backing of most of Colombia’s establishment political parties, as well as economic experts who warn that growing public debt under Petro has put the country’s fiscal stability at risk. She and de la Espriella both reject constitutional rewrite outright, have pledged to immediately suspend the current peace talks with armed groups and adopt a far more militarized approach to countering insurgent and criminal activity, and promise to roll back tax increases on businesses while reopening the oil and gas sectors that the Petro administration restricted.

    De la Espriella, who has built his legal career representing high-profile clients ranging from business owners accused of money laundering to an acid attack survivor whose case led to stricter penalties for gender-based violence, has gone even further in his conservative proposals: he plans to cut overall state spending by as much as 40% over a four-year term and eliminate multiple federal agencies, including the Petro-created Ministry of Equality, which was established to address ethnic discrimination and advance economic inclusion for marginalized groups.

    With more than 41.2 million registered voters — 1.2 million of whom reside outside of Colombia — this will be the third-largest presidential election in Latin America, trailing only Brazil and Mexico in size. More than half of Colombian voters abroad are based in three countries: the United States, Spain and Venezuela. Unlike some neighboring nations, voting is not mandatory in Colombia; in the 2022 presidential election, 21.3 million voters participated in the first round, with turnout rising to 22.6 million for the runoff, and 59% of registered overseas voters cast ballots in that cycle.

    The election comes as Colombia grapples with a security and humanitarian crisis that has grown increasingly acute in recent years. A landmark 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) led to the demobilization of more than 13,000 fighters, ending one of the longest internal conflicts in Latin American history. However, multiple smaller criminal and insurgent groups refused to join the agreement, and several former FARC commanders returned to armed activity after a few years of demobilization. These groups have since fought for control of the resource-rich rural territories previously held by FARC, fueling widespread instability.

    The Petro administration has pursued a negotiated approach to these groups, declaring multiple ceasefires to encourage armed factions to join peace talks. But critics argue that armed groups have exploited the ceasefires to regroup, rearm, and consolidate control over local communities, where they extort local businesses and profit from illegal economic activity including the cocaine trade. Data from the International Committee of the Red Cross confirms the crisis has reached its worst point in a decade: the number of people displaced by conflict in Colombia doubled in 2025 to 225,000, while explosive device incidents including landmines and drone attacks killed or injured 965 people last year, a 33% increase from 2024.

  • Temperatures likely to remain at record levels in 2026-2030: UN

    Temperatures likely to remain at record levels in 2026-2030: UN

    In a stark new climate outlook released Thursday, the United Nations’ leading weather and climate authority has sounded a clear alarm: global average temperatures will almost certainly hold at or near record levels between 2026 and 2030, with a high probability that the critical 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement will be breached on a five-year average basis.

    Every one of the 11 warmest years recorded in human history has occurred since 2015, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed this long-standing warming trend is on track to continue, with a new all-time hottest year very likely to be logged before 2031. According to the WMO’s official five-year outlook, there is a 75% probability that the average global temperature across 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900, the ambitious upper limit for safe warming set out in the 2015 Paris climate accords. The forecast puts the chance of at least one single year between 2026 and 2030 temporarily surpassing 1.5°C at 91%, and an 86% chance that one of those years will knock 2024 off its current spot as the warmest year on record.

    Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s *Global Annual-to-Decadal Update*, pointed to a predicted El Niño event at the end of 2026 as a key factor that could push 2027 into record-breaking territory. El Niño is a natural recurring climate pattern marked by warmed surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which reshapes global wind, pressure and rainfall patterns to drive higher global average temperatures. The most recent El Niño cycle already pushed 2023 to become the second-warmest year on record, and lifted 2024 to a new all-time high of roughly 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.

    The WMO outlook projects that annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will fall in a range of 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. While the chance of any single year exceeding 2°C — the less ambitious upper warming limit set in the Paris Agreement — over the next five years is less than 1%, the organization warns that temporary breaches of the 1.5°C threshold will become more common in coming years. It is important to note that the Paris Agreement’s warming limits refer to long-term sustained warming, typically measured over 20 years, so short-term temporary exceedances do not permanently rule out meeting the long-term goal.

    The new forecast arrives as western Europe is already grappling with an early extreme heat event, with a stationary warm air “heat dome” pushing May temperatures past all-time records in both the United Kingdom and France. Beyond global averages, the report highlights disproportionate warming in the Arctic, where average temperatures across the next five Northern Hemisphere winters (November to March) are projected to be 2.8°C warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline — more than three times the global average temperature anomaly for the same period. For precipitation patterns between May and September 2026–2030, the forecast predicts wetter-than-average conditions across the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while the Amazon basin is expected to see drier-than-average conditions.

    Compiled by the UK’s Met Office at the WMO’s leading center for interannual to decadal climate prediction, the report draws together forecast data from 13 leading climate research institutes across the globe to build its consensus projections.

  • Iran war has complicated plans for an international force in Gaza that has yet to materialize

    Iran war has complicated plans for an international force in Gaza that has yet to materialize

    Three months after the International Stabilization Force for Gaza was launched with grand promises of bringing lasting peace and long-term prosperity to the war-ravaged Palestinian enclave, the ambitious U.S.-backed initiative has ground to a near-standstill, with no meaningful troops deployed and ceasefire efforts deadlocked between Israeli and Hamas forces. The 20,000-strong stabilization force was first unveiled in February at the inaugural gathering of U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly created Board of Peace, with U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers tapped to lead the mission. Today, Jeffers commands no deployed forces, as none of the five nations that publicly pledged troop contributions have followed through on their commitments.

    The single largest blow to the plan came just over a week after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran in late February, when Indonesia — which had promised the largest contingent of 8,000 troops — put its entire commitment on indefinite hold. Under the original schedule, 1,000 Indonesian personnel were set to deploy in April, with the remaining 7,000 arriving the following June. The other four contributing nations — Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania — have also failed to deploy any significant on-the-ground forces three months on.

    Indonesia’s defense minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin explained the suspension to parliament last week, citing a lack of clear implementation guidance from a Washington administration distracted by escalating tensions with Tehran. “New dynamics have emerged,” Sjamsoeddin told lawmakers. “Because the intensity of the conflict between U.S. and Iranian forces remains very high, the Board of Peace has tended to be left behind. Since the Board of Peace has been left behind, the International Stabilization Force has also been left behind.”

    Regional analysts note that domestic political and economic pressures also heavily influenced Indonesia’s decision. As the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation, public opposition to the U.S.-Iran war runs extremely deep in the country. The conflict has already sent global energy prices soaring, pushing Indonesia’s already fragile economy into further strain, and public skepticism of the Trump administration’s Board of Peace initiative is widespread.

    “If you talk to the people on the street, I don’t think they believe that the Board of Peace will actually help the people of Gaza,” explained Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, director of the Indonesia-Middle East/North Africa desk at Jakarta’s Center for Economic and Law Studies. Rakhmat added that there is broad public unease about deploying troops to the volatile Middle East while Indonesia’s domestic economy falters. Past experiences have also soured public opinion: four Indonesian peacekeepers serving with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon were killed during fighting between Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah, further eroding support for new international military commitments in the region.

    Still, Rakhmat argues that a complete Indonesian withdrawal from the initiative is not yet a foregone conclusion. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, has made expanding Indonesia’s global diplomatic and security profile a core priority, and is reluctant to jeopardize key economic ties with the United States. “Prabowo wants to strengthen ties to Washington and sign different agreements with the U.S., so to completely withdraw and completely cancel the plan, I don’t think it’s on the table,” Rakhmat said.

    Efforts to shore up the already fragile Gaza ceasefire have stalled completely amid competing blame from both sides. Hamas has refused to disarm, a core requirement of the Trump administration’s 20-point ceasefire plan, while Israel has continued seizing additional territory in Gaza and carrying out repeated strikes on targets it labels militant positions — strikes that local health officials confirm have killed more than 880 Palestinians since the ceasefire was first agreed. Israeli troops currently control approximately 60% of Gaza’s total territory.

    The ongoing conflict with Iran has compounded these challenges, making it politically risky for Arab and Muslim leaders to openly cooperate with the U.S. and Israel, which are widely viewed as aggressors across much of the region. The resulting global energy crisis has also drained government resources that could have been used to support the stabilization mission.

    Board of Peace officials have placed the entirety of the blame for the deadlock on Hamas. Nickolay Mladenov, a former Bulgarian defense minister appointed by Trump to lead the Board of Peace, told the United Nations in May that the international force cannot begin operations until a second ceasefire phase — requiring Hamas to disarm and Israel to begin a troop withdrawal — is agreed and implemented. “You cannot build a future with armed groups running the streets, hiding in tunnels and stockpiling weapons,” Mladenov said during remarks in Jerusalem this month. “You cannot deliver reconstruction with militias on every corner.” Hamas’ disarmament, he added, remains “non-negotiable.”

    Hamas in turn blames Israel for the delay, accusing the Israeli government of repeatedly violating the ceasefire and Mladenov of openly siding with Tel Aviv. The group is demanding that Israel withdraw from all territory it has seized since the ceasefire went into effect, an Egyptian official with knowledge of closed-door mediation talks confirmed on condition of anonymity. The official added that most pledged troop-contributing nations have refused to deploy forces until a formal agreement on Hamas disarmament is reached.

    To date, only token, non-combat contributions have been confirmed, and no deployed troops are known to be on the ground in Gaza. Kazakhstan has limited its commitment to humanitarian support, including a planned field hospital and medical unit, but has not provided any update on deployment timelines. Albania’s defense ministry has described its contribution as a “dynamic and ongoing process,” with military chief Lieutenant General Arben Kingji confirming earlier this month that only a small contingent of personnel for the force’s headquarters will be sent, with no troops deployed to date even after preliminary reconnaissance work. Kosovo, which has pledged 20 troops, confirmed in April it was in the “final phase of preparations” but has not released an update since. Morocco has only committed to deploying high-ranking military officers to the force’s joint command, and has not shared further details. All four nations declined to respond to requests for comment on their current commitments.

    U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the status of the force or make General Jeffers available for interview, referring all inquiries to the Board of Peace. Board of Peace spokesman Brad Klapper also declined to comment on Indonesia’s suspension or the future of the mission, directing reporters to Mladenov’s May remarks to the United Nations.

  • Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says

    Think it’s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says

    New climate projections from the United Nations paint a stark near-term outlook for the global climate, finding that over the next five years, the planet is extremely likely to repeatedly cross the internationally agreed safe warming threshold and break the current record for the world’s hottest year.

    Released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in collaboration with the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, the analysis projects a 75% probability that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. That temperature limit was formally established as a long-term global target in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, designed to avoid the worst impacts of human-caused climate change. Prior scientific research has confirmed that even a small overshoot of this threshold would sharply increase risks of mortality, extreme hazard, and mass biodiversity loss, with sensitive ecosystems such as tropical coral reefs and mountain glaciers unable to adapt to even minor additional warming.

    The report’s statistics are even more sobering for individual years: there is a 91% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2030 will cross the 1.5°C threshold, and an 86% chance that one of those years will break the current hottest-year record set in 2024. WMO projects annual global temperatures for the 2025–2030 period will land between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above late 19th-century baselines.

    Contrary to common popular framing of the 1.5°C target as a hard “point of no return,” report co-author Melissa Seabrook, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office, emphasized that warming risk increases incrementally. “It’s important to note that 1.5 is not kind of a cliff edge that we’re going to fall off,” Seabrook said. “Every 0.1 of a degree brings more and more severe impacts.” She pointed to the unprecedented extreme heat that swept Europe in May 2025 as an immediate example of the hazards already unfolding.

    Outside experts echoed that warning. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London who was not involved in the report, noted that a full year or longer of temperatures above 1.5°C would unlock extreme weather events more intense than any modern societies have planned for. “This means a whole range of extreme weather events, probably many so hot/wet/dry that it exceeds anything we’ve experienced in the past and thus crucially, anything our city planning, agriculture etc. has anticipated,” Otto explained via email. “This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires.”

    A major contributing factor to the projected near-term warming surge is the expected return of a strong El Niño event, the natural climate pattern that warms surface waters in the central Pacific, boosts global average temperatures, and alters weather systems worldwide. The WMO projects this upcoming El Niño could persist as late as 2028, and Seabrook noted that 2027 is the most likely year to break the 2024 heat record as a result.

    If the 2026–2030 five-year average does exceed 1.5°C, that would mark a dramatic acceleration in the rate of global warming: the planet would warm 0.25°C per decade, up from the previous long-term average of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Seabrook noted that climate scientists are already divided over whether warming is accelerating, and the projection would add key evidence to the argument that the rate of climate change is speeding up. “That obviously is quite scary,” she added.

    The report’s projections highlight two particularly high-risk regions that will face disproportionate warming impacts. First, the Arctic is projected to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average over the next five years, creating a dangerous feedback loop. As rising temperatures melt sea ice, the dark open ocean that replaces bright reflective ice and snow absorbs more solar radiation, driving further warming. The report finds that average winter temperatures in the Arctic between 2026 and 2030 will be 2.8°C (5.1°F) warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline, following a 1.2°C (2.1°F) average winter warming between 2020 and 2025. Summer Arctic sea ice extent is also projected to continue shrinking.

    Second, the Amazon basin — the planet’s largest terrestrial carbon sink, a critical natural buffer against human-caused warming — is forecast to face prolonged unusually warm and dry conditions over the next five years. Those conditions would sharply increase wildfire risk, raising the alarming possibility that the Amazon could shift from absorbing heat-trapping carbon dioxide to releasing it, worsening global warming. The drought and wildfire risk also threatens the water security and livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the rainforest. By contrast, the already parched Sahel region of Africa is projected to receive above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding.

    UN climate leadership emphasized that the stark projections show current global efforts to cut fossil fuel emissions are insufficient to slow warming. “Despite the progress of recent years, it’s clear that global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it, and the baking temperatures in Europe, India and elsewhere show yet again the brutal human and economic impacts of humanity still burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas,” said UN climate chief Simon Stiell. “Whether it’s extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, massive wildfires or droughts hitting food supply and prices, every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.”

    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations, with AP retaining full editorial control over all content.

  • Brazil is set to join other Latin American countries with a 40-hour, 5-day workweek

    Brazil is set to join other Latin American countries with a 40-hour, 5-day workweek

    SAO PAULO — A major shift in labor policy is moving forward in Brazil, where the country’s lower chamber of Congress has greenlit a constitutional amendment that would establish a standard 40-hour, five-day workweek, aligning the nation with a growing trend of workweek reduction sweeping across Latin America.

    The initiative, which holds broad public support ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, was championed by sitting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has repeatedly pushed the proposal as a key win for working-class Brazilians. While the regional push for shorter working hours has earned widespread praise from labor rights advocates, it has faced sharp pushback from business groups across the continent, and Brazil’s debate has been no exception.

    Currently, Brazilian workers log a 44-hour weekly schedule: five full eight-hour days plus a four-hour shift on a sixth working day. If the amendment is finalized, it will phase out the six-day workweek while guaranteeing no pay cuts for at least 37 million employed people, capping weekly working time at 40 hours. The reform also enshrines the right to two consecutive 24-hour rest periods each week, with a preference for the Saturday-Sunday weekend that is standard in much of the world.

    During floor debate ahead of the vote, government whip in the lower house Paulo Pimenta framed the reform as a long-overdue step toward justice for low-wage workers. “People who have this workweek from Monday to Saturday are the ones that have to work the hardest and are paid the least,” Pimenta told fellow lawmakers. “We need to be brave and do justice.”

    While many opposition lawmakers ultimately backed the amendment after months of constituent pressure, some critics remained vocal in their opposition. Lawmaker Kim Kataguiri argued that the rushed timeline ahead of an election puts both small businesses and workers at risk. “I don’t care this is an election year. I think we need to be responsible. This will be a problem for many companies,” Kataguiri said. “We are doing this in a rush and workers should know they might end up worse than they are now if business leaders stop hiring.”

    To address business concerns, negotiators included a 14-month adaptation window for companies to adjust their operations to the new schedule — a compromise that fell far short of the 10-year phase-in period many business leaders and conservative lawmakers had demanded. Leo Prates, the lower house lawmaker who drafted the amendment, pushed back against claims of irresponsibility, noting the reform was crafted to balance the needs of workers, families and employers. “This was built with a lot of responsibility, thinking about workers and families in Brazil,” Prates said. “We need to accomplish this for the Brazilian people.”

    Wednesday’s late-night vote advances the amendment to Brazil’s Senate, where no vote date has been scheduled. Upper chamber lawmakers could introduce modifications to the text before a final version is sent to Lula for approval to formalize the constitutional change.

    Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s main opponent in the upcoming presidential race and a sitting senator, has put forward a competing vision for Brazilian labor policy: he proposes replacing the fixed weekly system with a more flexible hourly pay model, a plan that has so far only garnered support from a subset of business leaders.

    Brazil’s push for a shorter workweek comes as labor policy shifts diverge across Latin America. In February, Mexican lawmakers approved a proposal from President Claudia Sheinbaum to cut the country’s existing 48-hour workweek, with a gradual phase-in that will bring the nation to a 40-hour standard by 2030. In 2023, Chile passed its own “40-Hour Law,” which implemented a 40-hour workweek for all workers covered by the country’s labor code starting last year, with no corresponding reduction in pay.

    Argentina stands as a notable outlier to this regional trend. Under libertarian President Javier Milei, the country is moving to expand working hours, with a labor overhaul passed earlier this year that extends the maximum daily work limit from eight to 12 hours and eliminates mandatory overtime pay. Argentine labor unions have condemned the package, arguing it prioritizes corporate interests over the rights of working people.

    AP journalists Megan Janetsky, Isabel DeBre and Nayara Batschke contributed reporting from Mexico City, Buenos Aires, and Santiago, Chile.

  • Group of Victorian men charged after allegedly possessing ISIS-inspired propaganda

    Group of Victorian men charged after allegedly possessing ISIS-inspired propaganda

    An 18-month long counter-terrorism investigation by Australian law enforcement has culminated in charges against five Victorian men accused of holding a cache of violent extremist content, including ISIS propaganda and footage of past terror attacks. The investigation traces its origins back to late November 2024, when a man returning to Australia from Turkey was found to have suspicious material stored on his personal mobile device. A deep dive into that device uncovered a coordinated pattern: the group had been sharing prohibited extremist content among themselves via online channels, including promotional material from the banned terrorist organization ISIS and visual records of violent terror attacks.

    In early May, Australian Federal Police (AFP) launched coordinated raids on four residential properties across Melbourne, where four of the accused — 21-year-old Mohammad Ahmadzai, 20-year-old Azan Syed, 29-year-old Sulaiman Sarwari and 19-year-old Adian Sarwari — were taken into custody and charged with possession of violent extremist material. A fifth suspect, a 25-year-old man, was taken into custody weeks later on May 16, when he arrived at Melbourne International Airport on a flight returning from Malaysia, and faces the same criminal charge.

    During a hearing at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Thursday, Sulaiman Sarwari appeared alongside his legal team, with his barrister Siobhan Stary requesting modifications to two existing bail conditions, including the mandatory requirement for in-person court attendance to review bail compliance. With no opposition raised by the prosecution, Magistrate Donna Bakos granted the request, relaxing the bail conditions for the accused. The image of the post-hearing proceeding was captured by NewsWire photographer Ian Currie.

    AFP Counter Terrorism Commander Paula Hudson publicly announced the laid charges on May 8, emphasizing the critical role of early intervention in counter-terrorism policing. “Early intervention allows us to disrupt individuals before they progress to more severe forms of offending,” Hudson explained. “We allege these men were actively sharing material inspired by ISIS, a terrorist organisation responsible for mass atrocities and violent religious persecution around the world.” All five accused are scheduled to reappear in court between late July and early August, with the legal process set to move forward in the coming months.

  • Australia charges woman with terrorism over IS links

    Australia charges woman with terrorism over IS links

    In a major counter-terrorism development unfolding in Australia, federal law enforcement has levied formal terrorism charges against a 34-year-old woman accused of ties to the Islamic State (IS) extremist group, marking the latest high-profile case in a string of recent actions against IS-linked returnees from conflict zones in the Middle East. On Thursday, Australian authorities announced the woman faces two serious charges: membership in a proscribed terrorist organization and unlawful entry into a recognized active conflict zone, offenses that each carry a maximum prison sentence of 10 years if she is convicted.

    Counter-terrorism investigators allege the accused woman traveled to war-torn Syria between 2013 and 2014 alongside a male companion to join the then-expanding IS network. The man who accompanied her is currently confirmed to be in custody in the Middle East, police confirmed. Following the territorial defeat of IS in 2019 at the hands of Kurdish-led ground forces backed by a U.S.-led international coalition, the woman was captured by Kurdish security personnel and detained for years in the al-Hawl Internally Displaced Persons camp, a facility that holds thousands of relatives of suspected IS fighters in northeastern Syria. She was finally repatriated to Australia in September 2023, and was scheduled to make her first court appearance on the same day charges were announced.

    This latest arrest comes amid a wave of repatriations of Australians with IS connections that have unfolded over the past month. Shortly after this month’s first group of returnees arrived in the country, two women – a mother and daughter – were taken into custody immediately upon landing in Melbourne. Australian police have leveled serious allegations against the pair, claiming they traveled to Syria in 2014 to pledge support to IS and held another woman as an enslaved person during their time in the conflict zone. A third woman was arrested on arrival in Sydney, where she faces matching charges of entering a restricted conflict zone and joining a banned terrorist organization.

    Earlier this week, another cohort of 13 IS-linked Australians – four adult women and their nine minor children – completed repatriation flights from Syria to return to Australia. As of the announcement of Thursday’s new charges, none of the 13 returnees from this most recent group have been formally charged with any criminal offenses. However, senior Australian counter-terrorism officials have made clear that the absence of immediate charges does not mean the cases are closed. “It is important to note that a period of time without charges being laid is not an indicator that investigations have ceased,” Hilda Sirec, Deputy Commissioner for National Security Investigations at the Australian Federal Police, said in an official statement Thursday. “Investigations are continuing into all the recent adult female returnees from Syrian camps,” she added.

    The cases of these female IS-linked returnees, widely labeled in public discourse as “ISIS brides”, have ignited fierce and divisive public debate across Australia over the past several years. Human rights groups and government bodies including the Australian Human Rights Commission have pushed for compassionate policy, urging the federal government in March 2024 to prioritize repatriation for all remaining Australians held in Syrian displacement camps, citing the poor humanitarian conditions and uncertain legal status facing detainees. On the opposite side of the debate, many critics argue the women voluntarily severed ties with Australia to join a terrorist movement, and argue they should be forced to face the consequences of their choices outside of the country’s borders.

  • Japan woos visiting Philippine leader during state visit with arms sales and China in mind

    Japan woos visiting Philippine leader during state visit with arms sales and China in mind

    During a high-stakes four-day state visit to Tokyo that wraps up this week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been greeted with extraordinary diplomatic hospitality, underscoring Japan’s urgent push to deepen strategic and defense cooperation with the Southeast Asian nation at a moment of growing concern over Chinese military activity across the Indo-Pacific.

    The visit, which will conclude with Marcos’s departure on Friday, has already included a formal audience with Japanese Emperor Naruhito, who conferred the Grand Cordon of the Supreme Order of the Chrysanthemum — one of Japan’s most prestigious national honors — on the Philippine leader. A state banquet hosted at the imperial palace capped off the first three days of engagements, ahead of key formal talks Thursday between Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

    Analysts and government officials frame the warm welcome as a clear signal that Japan views the Philippines as a critical defense partner and a landmark client for its emerging defense export industry, following Tokyo’s historic break from decades of postwar pacifist policy earlier this year. In April, Takaichi’s administration lifted a long-standing ban on lethal weapons exports, opening the door for Japanese defense manufacturers to sell military hardware to international buyers for the first time, and Marcos is positioned to be the first head of state of a major prospective client nation to visit since the policy shift.

    Already, the two countries have launched negotiations for the sale of multiple retired Abukuma-class destroyers and TC-90 training aircraft from the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has also publicly confirmed Manila’s interest in acquiring Japanese Type-88 surface-to-ship missiles, after he joined his Japanese counterpart to observe joint bilateral live-fire exercises earlier this month.

    On the diplomatic agenda for Thursday’s bilateral summit, the two leaders are set to finalize frameworks that will further deepen defense and weapons industrial cooperation, alongside progress on a formal military intelligence-sharing agreement. Japanese government sources note that the intelligence pact will streamline secure communication between the two defense forces and strengthen trilateral security coordination with the United States, a mutual ally of both nations. This cooperation builds on existing security assistance: Japan has already donated five coastal surveillance radars to the Philippines to boost maritime monitoring capabilities, a capability that would be further enhanced by formal intelligence sharing.

    The deepening security alignment between Tokyo and Manila comes with a shared focus on countering growing Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas, as well as stability around Taiwan — the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its sovereign territory. The United States has repeatedly welcomed closer bilateral defense ties between Japan and the Philippines, framing the partnership as a key bulwark to defend regional rules-based order against Chinese expansion.

    Marcos echoed the warm tone of the visit during an address to Japanese lawmakers Wednesday, noting that the push to elevate bilateral relations to a new strategic level reflects an “exceptional level of trust” between the two countries. Since taking office, Marcos has taken a firm public stance against Chinese territorial claims in disputed areas of the South China Sea, a sharp shift from the more conciliatory policy pursued by his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte. Japan’s leadership is eager to lock in long-term strategic cooperation with Manila that outlasts Marcos’s presidency, which ends in 2028, to avoid the policy flip-flops on China that have marked past Philippine administrations.

    The past year has already seen rapid progress in bilateral defense cooperation: in 2024, the two sides signed a visiting forces agreement that allows military personnel from each nation to easily enter the other to conduct joint training exercises, clearing the way for Japan to deploy 1,400 troops to regular joint drills in the region. A second supplemental defense pact signed this year streamlines logistics support for joint training, allowing for tax-free transfers of ammunition, fuel, food and other essential supplies for participating forces.

    Beyond defense cooperation, the summit will also address pressing regional energy security challenges. The two leaders are set to discuss details of a Japanese-led multinational infrastructure funding framework launched in April, which is designed to help Southeast Asian nations including the Philippines build out strategic oil reserve infrastructure. The initiative comes in response to ongoing market and supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, which has severely disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for energy trade.

    Japanese officials also note that the state visit coincides with two key diplomatic milestones: 2024 marks the 70th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations between Japan and the Philippines, and the Philippines currently holds the rotating annual presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), positioning Tokyo to deepen its engagement with the broader regional bloc through its relationship with Manila.