As Colombian voters prepare to head to the polls on May 29 for a high-stakes presidential election, the entire political project of outgoing President Gustavo Petro hangs in the balance. Widely framed as a national referendum on Petro’s four years of progressive reform and unconventional peace efforts, the vote will shape the country’s social, economic and security trajectory for the coming term. If no candidate secures an absolute majority of votes, a runoff between the top two contenders will be held on June 21.
Petro, a 66-year-old former member of the 1970s and 1980s M-19 guerrilla movement that fought for systemic social justice, leaves office after a term defined by polarizing policy shifts. Domestically, he pushed through sweeping social and economic overhauls — including a major rewrite of Colombia’s labor laws — while pursuing controversial peace negotiations with the small rebel and criminal groups that remain active in the country’s rural regions. On the global stage, Petro broke with decades of conventional Colombian foreign policy, openly challenging U.S. approaches to drug prohibition and border management while maintaining limited targeted cooperation with Washington on these issues. As he put it ahead of the vote, the election will answer a core question: “the people will decide if the revolution is defeated or if it moves forward.”
Barred from seeking reelection by Colombia’s constitutional term limits, Petro’s left-wing Historical Pact coalition has tapped three-term senator Iván Cepeda as its standard-bearer. The 63-year-old candidate built his political career advocating for victims of state-sponsored violence during Colombia’s decades-long internal conflict, and has pledged to double down on Petro’s signature reforms. If elected, Cepeda says he will expand on the outgoing administration’s policies, which included a 23% jump in the national minimum wage this year alone and higher tax burdens on wealthy individuals and large corporations. He also plans to continue peace talks with remaining armed groups, and boost rural development through subsidized lending for small-scale farmers via a state-owned bank.
Cepeda’s most divisive campaign promise centers on potential constitutional change: he has committed to seeking a broad national consensus for reform, but has also threatened to convene a constituent assembly to rewrite Colombia’s constitution if agreement cannot be reached. Critics warn this move would erode the independence of Congress and the judiciary, posing a fundamental threat to the country’s democratic institutions.
Three candidates have emerged as clear frontrunners from a field of 14 total contenders, turning the race into a tight three-way contest. Cepeda’s leading rivals are Paloma Valencia, a 48-year-old senator from the Democratic Center party founded by influential former President Álvaro Uribe, and independent candidate Abelardo “The Tiger” de la Espriella, a 47-year-old outspoken lawyer who campaigns as a political outsider unaligned with any major traditional party.
Valencia’s campaign enjoys the backing of most of Colombia’s establishment political parties, as well as economic experts who warn that growing public debt under Petro has put the country’s fiscal stability at risk. She and de la Espriella both reject constitutional rewrite outright, have pledged to immediately suspend the current peace talks with armed groups and adopt a far more militarized approach to countering insurgent and criminal activity, and promise to roll back tax increases on businesses while reopening the oil and gas sectors that the Petro administration restricted.
De la Espriella, who has built his legal career representing high-profile clients ranging from business owners accused of money laundering to an acid attack survivor whose case led to stricter penalties for gender-based violence, has gone even further in his conservative proposals: he plans to cut overall state spending by as much as 40% over a four-year term and eliminate multiple federal agencies, including the Petro-created Ministry of Equality, which was established to address ethnic discrimination and advance economic inclusion for marginalized groups.
With more than 41.2 million registered voters — 1.2 million of whom reside outside of Colombia — this will be the third-largest presidential election in Latin America, trailing only Brazil and Mexico in size. More than half of Colombian voters abroad are based in three countries: the United States, Spain and Venezuela. Unlike some neighboring nations, voting is not mandatory in Colombia; in the 2022 presidential election, 21.3 million voters participated in the first round, with turnout rising to 22.6 million for the runoff, and 59% of registered overseas voters cast ballots in that cycle.
The election comes as Colombia grapples with a security and humanitarian crisis that has grown increasingly acute in recent years. A landmark 2016 peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) led to the demobilization of more than 13,000 fighters, ending one of the longest internal conflicts in Latin American history. However, multiple smaller criminal and insurgent groups refused to join the agreement, and several former FARC commanders returned to armed activity after a few years of demobilization. These groups have since fought for control of the resource-rich rural territories previously held by FARC, fueling widespread instability.
The Petro administration has pursued a negotiated approach to these groups, declaring multiple ceasefires to encourage armed factions to join peace talks. But critics argue that armed groups have exploited the ceasefires to regroup, rearm, and consolidate control over local communities, where they extort local businesses and profit from illegal economic activity including the cocaine trade. Data from the International Committee of the Red Cross confirms the crisis has reached its worst point in a decade: the number of people displaced by conflict in Colombia doubled in 2025 to 225,000, while explosive device incidents including landmines and drone attacks killed or injured 965 people last year, a 33% increase from 2024.