Global Pulse

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  • The Australian helping to return stolen English church artefacts

    The Australian helping to return stolen English church artefacts

    Half a world away from the English countryside, an 80-year-old Sydney-based solicitor with a lifelong passion for heraldry has pulled off a remarkable feat of historical restitution: tracking down and securing the return of two stolen centuries-old artefacts taken from parish churches in Norfolk and Hertfordshire. Richard d’Apice, an active member of both the UK and Australian branches of the Heraldry Society, spotted the items by chance while browsing online auction listings, turning his decades of specialized hobbyist knowledge into a win for cultural preservation.

    d’Apice has long been drawn to the study of heraldic symbols, particularly those connected to funeral memorials, and says he makes a point of exploring every open church he encounters during his travels. That curiosity translated to online browsing last December, when he came across a painted wooden panel listed for sale by UK-based Dreweatt Auction House. His specialized training let him spot that the piece was out of place: ecclesiastical heritage items almost never get formal permission to be removed from church property, so seeing a 17th-century heraldic panel up for public auction immediately raised red flags.

    After weeks of targeted research, d’Apice cross-referenced details of the panel with historical records, confirming it was first documented in an 1812 issue of *The Gentleman’s Magazine* as a memorial to George Cordell, a figure who served in the royal households of three successive British monarchs. The panel, valued at roughly £3,000, had been stolen from St Leonard’s Church in Flamstead, Hertfordshire back in 1996. Once d’Apice verified its origin, he reached out directly to the church’s rector and wardens to alert them to the impending sale.

    Church officials confirmed the item matched their 1996 theft report, which had already been filed with police and added to the Art Loss Register, a global database tracking stolen cultural property. With the official documentation in hand, the auction house pulled the panel from its sale schedule, and arrangements were made to return it to its rightful home. A public unveiling ceremony is scheduled for June 4 at St Leonard’s, as a highlight of this year’s Flamstead Arts Festival, which runs through June 7. d’Apice will travel from Australia to attend the event and personally unveil the restored memorial.

    The Hertfordshire recovery was not a one-off coincidence: it came only a short time after d’Apice helped track down a second stolen artefact, a 19th-century funeral hatchment, the diamond-shaped heraldic panel that memorializes a deceased individual, stolen from St Margaret’s Church in Felbrigg, Norfolk. That piece, which honors Cecilia, the widow of 19th-century MP William Windham who died in 1824, had been listed for sale by Sworders Fine Art Auctioneers in Stansted Mountfitchet, Essex.

    Following d’Apice’s tip, Essex Police’s rural engagement team launched an investigation and recovered the hatchment from a private seller who had purchased it in good faith roughly 20 years prior. The artefact was officially returned to St Margaret’s last October. “It was recovered from the seller, who had bought it in good faith around 20 years ago. Then, happily, I was able to deliver it safely back to its legal guardians,” explained PC Dane Wyatt, the rural engagement officer who led the handover. Sworders Fine Art Auctioneers also confirmed they were proud to support the restitution effort, welcoming the chance to return the piece to its original home.

    For d’Apice, the dual recoveries are not just a personal win for his hobby, but a reminder of a growing threat to UK ecclesiastical heritage: rampant theft of historical items from rural churches that has slowly eroded collections of irreplaceable cultural objects across the country. He emphasized that the Art Loss Register has emerged as a critical tool in fighting this trend, allowing owners to prove rightful ownership and recover stolen property across the global art and antiquities market.

    “It feels wonderful to know my extensive knowledge and research had been put to good use, and the items were now back to where they belong,” d’Apice said in an interview. “I’m excited to know the memorial board has been returned to the place it’s been for hundreds of years.”

    This report originates from BBC Beds, Herts and Bucks, which invites audience members to submit local story tips via multiple digital platforms, including BBC Sounds, Facebook, Instagram and X.

  • Iran war forces farmers seek fertilizer alternatives from cow dung to compost

    Iran war forces farmers seek fertilizer alternatives from cow dung to compost

    Geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through global agricultural markets, sending chemical fertilizer prices soaring and pushing smallholder and commercial farmers alike across multiple continents to accelerate a shift toward organic and bio-based alternatives. For farmers in Senegal, one of West Africa’s most food-dependent nations, the impact of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz has been felt almost immediately after U.S. missile strikes on Iran earlier this year. Since the outbreak of conflict in late February, domestic fertilizer prices in the country have jumped 40%, creating an unprecedented crisis for small-scale producers reliant on imported agricultural inputs.

    Abou Sow, a Senegalese farmer who made the switch from chemical fertilizers to organic compost eight years ago, has been far better insulated from the price shock than many of his neighbors. Today, he leads a grassroots movement urging local farmers to source manure from regional livestock herders and teaches hands-on composting techniques, pointing to wriggling earthworms in finished compost as a key marker of nutrient-rich soil. “We can’t afford to wait for a ceasefire,” Sow said. “It’s simply too risky to depend on imported chemical fertilizers when global supply chains are so unstable.”

    The disruption stems from Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint that impacts both natural gas supplies – a core input for chemical fertilizer production – and global maritime trade. Data confirms the scope of the crisis: the Gulf region accounts for 30% of all globally traded chemical fertilizer, and the World Bank’s global fertilizer price index has recorded a 50% price increase since tensions escalated. The global food security community has sounded the alarm, with Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, warning “the clock is ticking very hard” as risks to global food supplies mount.

    Beyond easing supply chain dependency, experts note that a global shift away from chemical fertilizers carries major environmental benefits. The production and application of synthetic fertilizers generate substantial greenhouse gas emissions, the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change. In contrast, organic and natural fertilizers sequester carbon in soil and reduce the water pollution caused by chemical runoff from agricultural lands. “It’s good for the planet because you’re weaning food production off fossil fuels,” explained Susan Chomba, a member of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems, an independent global think tank.

    Senegal, which imports 125,000 tons of chemical fertilizer annually, illustrates the uneven nature of the transition. While Senegalese Agriculture Minister Mabouba Diagne has stated the government secured enough chemical fertilizer for the current growing season, many farmers report that supplies are increasingly hard to access on the ground. Farmer Aliou Fall blames the U.S. for the crisis, arguing “He [Donald Trump] brings war to the world and he doesn’t even think about it. Now farmers are suffering.”

    For Sow, proximity to a regional sheep-rearing community has kept his compost supplies steady: he applies six tons of organic compost to his fields each year, avoiding the sticker shock of synthetic inputs. But access remains a major barrier in remote rural areas, where sourcing and transporting large volumes of manure is logistically and financially unfeasible. Sow warns that without broader support, some vulnerable smallholders may be forced to abandon their fields entirely this growing season.

    Industry-backed alternatives are already gaining traction across the continent: biofertilizers, which contain naturally occurring bacteria and microorganisms that help crops draw essential nitrogen from air and soil, offer a scalable solution. A growing number of African firms now produce commercial-scale compost from municipal organic waste, turning discarded food scraps into nutrient-rich fertilizer. In response to the crisis, the Senegalese government announced a program in April to subsidize and distribute 30,000 tons of organic fertilizer to smallholders, but Sow argues the support is far from sufficient to meet growing demand.

    Systemic barriers continue to slow the global transition, experts note. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that governments around the world spend $700 billion annually on agricultural subsidies, with the vast majority directed toward supporting synthetic fertilizer production and distribution. This policy landscape keeps chemical fertilizer artificially cheap and makes sustainable alternatives less cost-competitive for producers. “You’re incentivizing the wrong sort of products,” Chomba said of the current subsidy structure.

    The trend toward alternative fertilizers is playing out across major agricultural economies globally. In Brazil, one of the world’s top exporters of soybeans, coffee, sugarcane, and beef, more than 80% of all chemical fertilizer is imported, leaving the sector extremely exposed to global price shocks. Luis Barbieri, founder of the Brazilian Folio Institute that connects farmers and agricultural researchers, reports that fertilizer prices in the country have risen 50% since the outbreak of the Iran conflict. “Whenever we have a war, farmers’ use of biofertilizers is turbocharged,” Barbieri said.

    Notably, chemical fertilizers have long been less effective in Brazil’s tropical climate: high temperatures and heavy rainfall accelerate runoff, reducing their impact on crop yields. Brazil’s state-run agricultural research corporation Embrapa reports that the country’s biofertilizer sector grew 15% between 2023 and 2024, and flexible national patent laws allow smallholders to produce their own biofertilizers on-farm at a fraction of the cost of imported synthetic alternatives. The pace of transition varies widely, however: in Mexico, progress has been glacial, due to persistent government subsidies for chemical fertilizer and a lack of public funding for sustainable alternatives, according to Gerardo Noriega, a research professor at the Autonomous University of Chapingo and one of Mexico’s leading advocates for organic fertilization. Even so, Noriega predicts the current global crisis “may force (farmers) to adopt organic fertilizers more quickly than they had imagined.”

    In India, another major agricultural economy that imports 60% of its fertilizer from the Gulf region, the central government has launched a national push to scale natural farming. In the southern states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, more than 1.7 million farmers have already shifted to natural systems that rely on on-farm organic inputs rather than commercial synthetic fertilizers. Manohara Chari, a farmer in Telangana, now produces jivamrita – a nutrient-dense fertilizer blend made from cow dung, cow urine, flour, soil, and jaggery – to replace the synthetic products he used for decades. “We do not depend on companies,” Chari said, explaining the self-sufficiency of the natural farming model.

    Earlier this year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a national mission to scale natural farming across the country, setting a target of cutting chemical fertilizer use by 50% within the coming years. The Indian government has already spent heavily to subsidize imported chemical fertilizer and secure alternative supply chains to offset the Gulf disruption, but agricultural scientists report growing farmer interest in low-input natural farming since the conflict began. “There’s certainly been more interest this year in natural farming, especially after the Middle East conflict began,” said G.V. Ramanjaneyulu, an agricultural scientist with the Center for Sustainable Agriculture. Many farmers are now setting aside test plots on their land to trial natural methods before committing to a full transition.

    The shift to natural farming does require additional on-farm labor and a multiyear transition period as soil health regenerates, and farmers say government policy remains misaligned to support the change. Chari argues that redirecting even a small share of existing chemical fertilizer subsidies to support natural farmers would drive a much faster, broader transition across the country. The current global supply crisis, producers and experts agree, has created an urgent opening to reorient global agricultural policy toward more resilient, sustainable systems that benefit both smallholders and the climate.

  • Venice’s growing flamingo population finds refuge in recovering wetlands

    Venice’s growing flamingo population finds refuge in recovering wetlands

    VENICE, Italy — For generations, the iconic pale pink flamingo has been absent from local Venetian vocabulary, a quiet reflection of how recently these striking birds have made the Venetian Lagoon their home. Today, that narrative is shifting dramatically: flamingo numbers in this storied coastal ecosystem have hit all-time highs, as large-scale wetland restoration projects create new viable habitats that could soon support the first permanent, self-sustaining nesting colony in the region’s modern history.

    Flamingos, which have long established major nesting sites in Spain and France, first began appearing in the 550-square-kilometer Venetian Lagoon in the early 2000s. Initially, sightings were largely limited to remote fishing valleys and tidal mudflats along the lagoon’s outer edges, with almost no encounters in the canal-laced historic center that draws millions of global tourists each year. That pattern has shifted sharply in recent years, however. Last year’s official ornithological census counted nearly 24,000 wintering flamingos in the lagoon — an increase of 8,000 from the previous year’s total.

    “This count cements the Venetian Lagoon as one of the most critical wintering grounds for flamingos across their entire European range,” explained Alessandro Sartori, a leading ornithologist who monitors the lagoon’s bird populations weekly by boat. Over 90% of the counted flamingos currently congregate in the northern lagoon, where large expanses of intact natural salt marsh and semi-natural traditional fishing valleys provide abundant food sources. These managed embanked wetlands, however, have also created occasional conflict between the feeding birds and local fishing activity.

    Sartori has spent years searching for signs of successful nesting, a milestone that would confirm the establishment of a self-sustaining local colony. Two previous attempts in 2008 and 2013, in northern lagoon fishing valleys, ended in devastating setbacks: a severe hailstorm killed dozens of young birds, halting early colonization efforts. That could change soon, thanks to a landmark EU-backed wetland restoration project focused on rebuilding eroding salt marshes in the isolated southern lagoon, located beyond Venice’s historic center and the Marghera industrial port.

    Once, nearly half of the entire Venetian Lagoon consisted of natural salt marshes, known locally as *barene* in the Venetian dialect. Today, salt marshes make up just 7% of the lagoon’s total area, with only half of that remaining habitat naturally formed. Decades of erosion, accelerated by the dredging of shipping channels for the Marghera industrial port in the 1960s, has pushed the lagoon toward a worrying transition: without intervention, it could eventually degrade into an open marine bay, according to conservation leaders.

    The 23.6 million euro ($27.5 million) five-year WaterLANDS project, led in part by local conservation group We Are Here Venice, aims to reverse that trend by rebuilding salt marsh habitats at a scalable scale. Beyond creating new feeding and potential nesting grounds for flamingos, restored salt marshes deliver major climate benefits: they trap carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas driving climate change, and buffer the lagoon against the impacts of rising sea levels. “This project is designed to prove that we can reverse centuries of erosion and change the trajectory of the lagoon,” said Jane da Mosto, executive director of We Are Here Venice.

    Conservation teams working on the southern lagoon project have already documented clear signs of increasing flamingo activity, from scattered pink feathers to regularly feeding flocks. Sartori has already observed a dramatic jump in flamingo numbers in the restored southern wetlands: over the past three years, counts have grown from just a handful of birds to between 300 and 400 during peak wintering periods. “Our hope is that just as flamingos have established nesting colonies in other parts of the Mediterranean, they will find suitable breeding ground right here on these restored barene,” Sartori said.

    Beyond conservation gains, the arrival of Venice’s pink newcomers offers a new opportunity to reframe the city’s ecological identity, adding a layer of natural significance to its already well-known historical and cultural heritage. While casual flamingo sightings remain rare for most tourists — the birds favor remote, shallow tidal reaches that require careful navigation through shifting channels, and they scatter quickly when disturbed by human activity — Sartori predicts that flamingo watching will become an increasingly popular sustainable activity as populations grow, with occasional sightings already possible from the shores of the popular lagoon islands of Murano and Burano. He emphasized that any wildlife viewing must prioritize the birds’ safety, with visitors maintaining a safe distance to avoid disrupting their feeding and resting routines.

    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental reporting is supported by funding from private philanthropic foundations, with AP maintaining full editorial control over all content.

  • American allies warn division weakens deterrence in calls for global unity to meet new threats

    American allies warn division weakens deterrence in calls for global unity to meet new threats

    At the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, senior defense officials from U.S. allied nations have converged to stress the urgent need for collective solidarity amid shifting transnational security threats and growing friction between Washington and its long-standing partners. The calls for unity came one day after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth used the forum’s opening to renew the Trump administration’s sharp criticism of Western European allies for failing to meet defense spending commitments. Hegseth, echoing President Donald Trump’s longstanding harsh rhetoric against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, went further Saturday, accusing European capitals of being distracted by hollow globalist discourse around the rules-based international order, weakening their own militaries, and opening borders without sufficient security safeguards. He argued that international rules hold no weight without credible hard power to enforce them.

    While Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi publicly praised Hegseth for the U.S.’s continued commitment to Indo-Pacific security, he joined other allied leaders in underlining that robust global coalitions remain irreplaceable for countering modern threats. In a clear push against the risk of growing rifts between the U.S., Europe, and like-minded partner nations, Koizumi told attendees: “Division weakens deterrence, unity strengthens deterrence.” He warned that any fractures in the alliance bloc would be exploited by adversarial powers, arguing that now is the moment to deepen, rather than scale back, cooperative defense efforts.

    Koizumi also addressed recent geopolitical friction between Tokyo and Beijing over Japan’s landmark shift in defense policy. Last month, the cabinet of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi scrapped a decades-long ban on lethal weapons exports, the most significant break from Japan’s post-World War II pacifist framework to date. China has decried the move, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun vowing that Beijing would “resolutely resist Japan’s reckless moves toward a new type of militarism.” Rejecting this accusation outright, Koizumi framed it as deeply ironic in his English remarks at the conference. “Think about it, there is a country that has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons and strategic bombers,” he said. “Japan has neither of such weapons, and yet Japan is labeled new militarism. Isn’t it strange?” The Japanese defense minister also called out China’s choice not to send its top defense official to the dialogue, noting that genuine transparency emerges only through open discussion and diplomatic engagement.

    Other allied defense leaders echoed Koizumi’s emphasis on collective action, while largely aligning with Hegseth’s core argument that the rules-based international order requires hard military backing. Speaking to reporters on the conference sidelines Sunday, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles agreed that rules must be underpinned by credible power, but added that a strong, shared rule of law is more vital today than at any point in recent history. For middle powers like Australia, and for smaller nations globally, Marles noted that a rules-based system is the only framework that guarantees sovereign agency. “This is a collective challenge and it demands a collective response, which is actually what the rules based order is all about,” Marles said, adding that cross-national alliances remain the bedrock of regional security.

    Netherlands Defense Minister Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius expanded on this point, noting that contemporary conflicts no longer stay contained within regional borders. “A war in Europe involves drones from Iran, soldiers and ammunition from North Korea and various types of support from China,” she observed. “The lesson is clear: regional tensions are no longer regional. Our security is interconnected.” Yesilgöz-Zegerius warned that if middle and small powers fail to coordinate their action, they risk being sidelined from decisions that shape their own security, but unified coalitions allow them to uphold global stability. Even as international law faces widespread violations, she argued, the international community must not abandon shared norms. “The fact that international rules are being violated does not mean we should abandon them,” she said. “On the contrary, it means we must defend them more constantly and more courageously. International law may be imperfect, but history teaches us that the alternative is far worse.”

  • Concerns mount that Belarus could be a launchpad for a new Russian offensive in Ukraine

    Concerns mount that Belarus could be a launchpad for a new Russian offensive in Ukraine

    More than three years after Russian forces launched their full-scale invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, Kyiv and Western capitals are sounding new alarms that Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ long-ruling authoritarian leader, could open a new front for the Kremlin by allowing Moscow to again use his country as a launchpad for aggression.

    When Putin launched his full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, tens of thousands of Russian troops massed in northern Belarus under the pretense of joint military drills, then launched a rapid push south toward Kyiv, just 90 kilometers from the Belarusian border. Putin’s bid for a quick capture of the Ukrainian capital crumbled in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, with stretched-out Russian armored convoys sitting vulnerable to ambushes along narrow highways. Just over a month into the invasion, heavily damaged Russian forces with crumbling supply lines retreated from northern Ukraine, a move the Kremlin framed as a “goodwill gesture” amid early peace efforts. Those early peace talks were actually hosted on Belarusian territory, bringing Russian and Ukrainian delegates together for the first negotiation before talks shifted to Istanbul, where no breakthrough agreement was ever reached.

    Unlike the opening days of the war, Belarus has not deployed its own troops to fight in Ukraine, but Lukashenko’s regime has become an integral, often overlooked pillar of Putin’s war effort. Over nearly three years of conflict, Minsk has opened its borders to host Russian military infrastructure, tactical nuclear weapons, and training grounds for Russian troops, offered its hospitals to treat wounded Russian soldiers, and integrated its domestic manufacturing sector into Russia’s war supply chain.

    Ukrainian sanctions envoy Vladyslav Vlasiuk confirmed that fragments of a Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile fired at Ukraine in May contained microchips manufactured in Belarus. The Belarusian opposition military monitoring group BELPOL, made up of former military and law enforcement officers who oppose Lukashenko, estimates more than 500 Belarusian industrial plants are currently involved in producing weapons components, repairing Russian military equipment, and providing logistics support for Moscow’s campaign. The group’s head, Uladzimir Zhyhar, told reporters that “Lukashenko’s regime is quite seriously involved in the war. Lukashenko is helping Russia in every way he can.”

    Zhyhar added that new infrastructure construction, including a large-scale firing range and barracks capable of housing thousands of troops, is already underway in Belarus’ Gomel region along the Ukrainian border. This ongoing military buildup has forced Kyiv to divert tens of thousands of troops from the main 1,000-kilometer front line in eastern and southern Ukraine to defend its northern border, stretching Ukrainian defensive resources thin.

    Beyond conventional military support, Belarus has become a core part of Russia’s nuclear deterrence posture in Europe. Geographically, Belarus shares borders with three NATO member states — Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland — making it a strategically critical outpost for the Kremlin. In 2024, Moscow updated its nuclear doctrine to place Belarus firmly under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, and announced that it had deployed its new nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system to Belarusian territory. Russia has already used conventionally armed variants of the Oreshnik to strike targets inside Ukraine three times in the last six months. Earlier this month, Moscow and Minsk held large-scale joint nuclear force drills that simulated delivering nuclear warheads to missile units and preparing for a launch, with a joint Belarusian-Russian crew test-firing a nuclear-capable Iskander missile from a southern Russian range.

    “Belarus lacks military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow sees it as necessary for its strategy, Moscow will naturally use Belarus as a launchpad for a new invasion of Ukraine or some kind of armed conflict with NATO countries,” Zhyhar explained, noting that Belarus offers a “very convenient springboard” for any new northern push toward Kyiv.

    Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Kyiv’s intelligence services had detected a sharp increase in Russian efforts to push Belarus into deeper direct involvement in the war, and prepare for new offensive operations launched from Belarusian territory. Zelenskyy said potential targets include the Chernihiv-Kyiv corridor in northern Ukraine, or even a strike against a NATO member state sharing a border with Belarus. In response, Zelenskyy has ordered Ukrainian military and security agencies to strengthen northern border fortifications and prepare a coordinated defensive response.

    Both Lukashenko and senior Russian officials have rejected Kyiv’s warnings. Lukashenko has insisted Belarus has no plans to enter the war unless it is directly attacked, while Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu dismissed Zelenskyy’s claims as a fearmongering tactic designed to pressure Western allies into sending more military aid to Kyiv.

    Even so, the growing risk has prompted unprecedented diplomatic outreach from Western powers. On May 24, French President Emmanuel Macron held his first call with Lukashenko since the 2022 invasion to warn of the severe risks if Belarus is dragged deeper into the conflict. Lukashenko responded by announcing he would host a French envoy the following week to discuss European security and potential easing of European Union sanctions on Minsk.

    Ukrainian border guard spokesperson Andrii Demchenko noted that while intelligence confirms Russia is increasing pressure on Lukashenko to enter the war directly, Ukrainian forces have not yet detected a large-scale buildup of Russian or Belarusian troops and equipment along the border. Belarusian opposition leader-in-exile Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who visited Kyiv last week, emphasized that “Belarus must never again become a springboard for aggression. Russian tanks must never again march through Belarus to Chernihiv, Zhitomir, Rivne, or Kyiv. Ukraine is fighting for itself and for all the peoples who have lived in the shadow of empire for too long. It is fighting for the right to live in peace. And the fate of my country, Belarus, also depends on Ukraine’s success.”

    Independent military analysts based in Minsk argue that a large-scale offensive launched from Belarus is militarily unlikely at this stage. Belarus has just under 49,000 active-duty troops, a fraction of Russia’s 1.5 million active force, and while Minsk could theoretically mobilize up to 290,000 reservists, those forces lack modern weapons and sufficient training to conduct offensive operations. Minsk-based military analyst Alexander Alesin estimates an offensive would require mobilizing as many as 500,000 personnel — a move that would cripple Belarus’ domestic economy and require massive Russian arms supplies to equip the force.

    “Even with a small force, the Ukrainians can easily defend themselves and inflict heavy losses on the Belarusian army,” Alesin said, noting that Ukraine has already built layered heavy fortifications along the entire border and planted extensive minefields that would slow any incursion. Alesin added that Lukashenko has little incentive to pursue direct involvement, pointing out that the Belarusian leader benefits greatly from his current role as a quiet supplier to Russia’s war machine. “The last thing Lukashenko wants is to fight, and he’ll cling to his current position at any cost, so he can avoid fighting while profiting handsomely from the war,” Alesin said.

  • Ethiopia heads to the polls for an election expected to be dominated again by Abiy’s ruling party

    Ethiopia heads to the polls for an election expected to be dominated again by Abiy’s ruling party

    Ethiopia is set to hold its general national election on Monday, with early projections pointing to a sweeping victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party, hobbling a deeply divided and under-resourced opposition bloc that has struggled to mount a competitive challenge.

    Currently holding more than 500 of the 547 seats in the country’s House of Representatives, the Prosperity Party is widely expected to secure a commanding new majority, which would lock in Abiy’s position as prime minister for a second five-year term. Roughly 50 million registered voters out of Ethiopia’s total 130 million population are eligible to cast ballots for federal parliamentary representatives, as well as members of regional local government councils. Under Ethiopia’s electoral system, elected parliamentarians ultimately select the country’s prime minister.

    However, widespread insecurity across two of Ethiopia’s most populous regions — Amhara and Oromia — is projected to depress voter turnout significantly. The election comes in the wake of years of internal armed conflict, including the devastating two-year Tigray war that ended with a November 2022 peace deal, and ongoing low-level clashes in multiple northern regions. National reconciliation post-conflict and delivering large-scale infrastructure development, two key pledges from Abiy’s administration, have anchored the ruling party’s campaign messaging.

    Monitoring the vote is a team of 73 African Union observers led by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who previously mediated the Tigray peace negotiations that produced the 2022 agreement. Arriving in Addis Ababa on Saturday, Kenyatta stressed that Ethiopia’s election carries outsize importance for the entire African continent, as the country hosts the African Union’s permanent headquarters. “Ours is to call for peaceful situation as Ethiopians are known for,” he noted.

    The vote has not been without sharp controversy. Abiy’s government has faced repeated international accusations of systematic human rights violations targeting political critics, independent journalists and opposition activists, despite 2020 promises to advance democratic reform and national peace. Abiy was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for brokering a resolution to a decades-long border conflict with neighboring Eritrea, but relations between the two nations have collapsed in recent years. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing rebel factions to destabilize its northern regions, stoking fears that Tigray, already grappling with a catastrophic humanitarian crisis and widespread famine, could be dragged back into full-scale proxy war.

    The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the former dominant regional party in Tigray, has been labeled an illegal terrorist organization by the federal government. The region will skip the national vote for the second consecutive cycle, leaving Tigray without any representation in the federal parliament for a sixth straight year. TPLF leaders have threatened to withdraw from the 2022 peace agreement, a move the federal government calls an intentional provocation to restart conflict, while local relief agencies warn that hundreds of thousands of residents face acute food insecurity amid reports the central government has restricted access to critical humanitarian resources in the region.

    Analysis of the election’s integrity has split independent observers. Bayu Samuel, a political analyst based in Addis Ababa, argued that the vote is on track to be largely free and fair, pointing to new digital voting technologies that reduce fraud risks and growing public political awareness among the electorate. That assessment is rejected by opposition groups, which uniformly decry systemic advantages that favor the ruling Prosperity Party.

    Mistresilasie Tamerat, head of the opposition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party and the election’s youngest candidate, called the process “far from genuine and democratic.” “The system favors the ruling party, and we can’t even freely operate (or) meet with our constituents,” she said. Eyoel Solomon, spokesperson for the main opposition National Movement of Amhara (Ezema), said the party’s core priority is ending the ethnic-based politics that has divided the country for decades. “We have seen citizens being attacked because of their identity. We have seen them being persecuted simply for living in areas deemed by others not to be ‘theirs,’” he explained.

    Most national campaign activity has been concentrated in the capital Addis Ababa, where heavy military deployments have been visible across the city in the lead-up to voting. Unusually for a national election, public campaigning has been muted, with far fewer large public rallies and almost no door-to-door voter outreach by candidates, even as the vote has dominated public discussion across the capital. To boost turnout, Ethiopia’s independent electoral commission has declared Monday a national public holiday, closing all federal government offices to allow citizens to cast ballots without work disruptions.

  • Colombia’s presidential election pits outgoing leader’s ally against pro-Trump candidates

    Colombia’s presidential election pits outgoing leader’s ally against pro-Trump candidates

    BOGOTÁ, COLOMBIA – On a watershed Sunday for the South American nation, millions of Colombian voters headed to polling stations for the first round of a deeply consequential presidential election, where competing visions for national peace have split the country decades after a brutal, interminable armed conflict.

    This contest, widely framed as a public verdict on the policies of departing President Gustavo Petro, arrives exactly one decade after Colombia signed what was billed as a historic peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, better known as FARC. The 2014 pact once raised bold hopes that Colombia could finally escape its generations-long cycle of clashes between state forces and rebel insurgencies, but widespread violence has reemerged in the years that followed, reaching a fever pitch in the months leading up to this election. Organized criminal factions have stepped up coordinated drone attacks, political campaigning has been repeatedly disrupted by armed assaults, and last June, a 39-year-old sitting politician and presidential aspirant, Miguel Uribe Turbay, was assassinated in a shooting at a public campaign rally.

    For Colombia, where the pursuit of peace has long anchored the national political identity, the core question of how to resolve persistent conflict has once again driven a sharp wedge through the electorate. Though 14 candidates appear on the official ballot, the race has narrowed to a tight three-way contest between three contenders with fundamentally opposing approaches to the nation’s security crisis.

    Leading in pre-election opinion polls is Senator Ivan Cepeda, a veteran peace activist and close ally of the outgoing Petro administration. Cepeda has pledged to continue building on Petro’s flagship “total peace” initiative, which seeks to open negotiations with all remaining active rebel and armed criminal groups to negotiate new ceasefires and lasting peace accords that address the roots of the ongoing violence. Critics point out that the existing peace strategy has largely fallen short of its goals: criminal networks have exploited government ceasefires to expand their territorial control and operations. Even so, Cepeda and Petro retain solid support from large swathes of the electorate thanks to progressive domestic reforms enacted under Petro, including a significant increase to the national minimum wage.

    Challenging Cepeda from the right are two candidates, Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, both of whom have campaigned on promises of far harsher, military-first crackdowns on armed groups.

    De la Espriella, a brash celebrity lawyer known by his nickname “The Tiger,” has seen his support surge in recent weeks. He has positioned himself as a political outsider who aims to replicate the hardline gang crackdown that El Salvador’s government carried out in recent years. That campaign succeeded in sharply lowering gang-related homicide rates but has drawn widespread international condemnation for systematic human rights abuses and extrajudicial detentions.

    Valencia, meanwhile, is widely recognized as the political protégé of former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe, the influential hardline leader who held office from 2002 to 2010. Uribe’s government launched a massive military offensive that defeated large swathes of the FARC insurgency, but the campaign also resulted in thousands of civilian casualties. Both de la Espriella and Valencia have openly voiced their admiration for former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has advocated for far more aggressive pressure on Latin American nations to crack down on transnational criminal groups than most modern U.S. administrations.

    Under Colombian electoral rules, a candidate must win an absolute majority of 50% of the vote to claim victory in the first round – an outcome that is almost unheard of in the nation’s modern electoral history. If no candidate hits that threshold, the top two finishers will advance to a head-to-head runoff election scheduled for June.

    The deep divide over security policy is reflected clearly in the views of ordinary Colombian voters, who carry varying personal experiences of the nation’s long-running conflict. Maria Eugenia, a 57-year-old seamstress working in downtown Bogotá, told reporters she supports a full-scale military offensive against growing criminal groups, even if it comes with human rights tradeoffs. While she applauded Petro’s investments in improving Colombia’s public medical infrastructure, she said she is voting for de la Espriella because violence in rural regions of the country has spun out of control.

    “Of course, whenever you take a hard line, there’s always going to be debate,” she said. “But some people are going to have to fall to clean up what needs to be cleaned.”

    Just steps from her workshop, 26-year-old Cristian Morales offered a sharply contrasting view. He acknowledged that Petro’s peace plan has fallen short on many of its core promises, but argued that incremental reform of a strategy aimed at ending cycles of violence is far preferable to swinging to the opposite extreme of harsh military confrontation. Morales said he plans to cast his vote for Cepeda, pointing to the candidate’s commitments to protecting Colombia’s unique biodiversity and expanding public access to education as priorities, alongside his peace agenda. He argued that bold promises to fully uproot Colombia’s deeply entrenched conflict in a single four-year presidential term are unrealistic.

    “The solution to this conflict isn’t aggressive confrontations. It will only end in more bloodshed,” Morales said. “It’s so difficult because it’s either dialogue or arms, and an internal conflict isn’t good for anyone.”

  • Spurs dethrone Thunder to reach NBA Finals against Knicks

    Spurs dethrone Thunder to reach NBA Finals against Knicks

    In a tense, winner-take-all Game 7 clash that went down to the final seconds, the San Antonio Spurs pulled off a thrilling 111-103 victory over the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, punching their ticket to the franchise’s first NBA Finals appearance in nearly a decade and setting up a championship rematch with the New York Knicks.

    Fueled by a historic performance from 22-year-old generational talent Victor Wembanyama, the young, relatively inexperienced Spurs squad claimed the Western Conference crown 4-3 in the hard-fought best-of-seven series. The NBA Finals will tip off this Wednesday in San Antonio, where Wembanyama and his teammates will face off against a Knicks team that already got the better of them in the season’s in-season tournament.

    The 7-foot-4 French standout, who earned both Western Conference Finals MVP and NBA Defensive Player of the Year honors this postseason, delivered 22 points, seven rebounds, and multiple game-changing defensive plays to anchor the win. When the final buzzer sounded, an emotional Wembanyama celebrated with teammates, describing the moment as the fulfillment of a lifelong childhood dream. “Though we’re still hungry for one more, this feeling is, I can’t explain it, it’s so powerful,” Wembanyama told reporters after the game. “We want four more wins. We’re not done. Go Spurs go.”

    Role players stepped up in a major way for San Antonio, too: wing Julian Champagnie poured in 20 points, including six clutch three-pointers, while rookie guard Stephon Castle added 16 points to the winning effort. “We never knew if we were going to get this far but when you’ve got the greatest player in the world things happen,” Champagnie said of his superstar teammate, who deflected praise back to the entire roster after the win. “It doesn’t mean anything for me other than the fact we are a team,” Wembanyama said of his series MVP award. “I got this for all of us and all the fans right here.”

    What makes the victory even more impressive is the context: only one Spurs player had ever appeared in a Game 7 before Saturday, while the Thunder brought defending championship experience and a deep roster into the decider. The Thunder were also missing starting forward Jalen Williams to a late hamstring injury, but still pushed the Spurs to the brink behind a 35-point masterclass from league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

    Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson highlighted his team’s grit and togetherness over experience as the key difference. “Back in October we knew we had a chance to be pretty good,” Johnson said. “There’s a lot being talked about, words like competitiveness, resolve, togetherness, execution — who gives a damn about the word experience? They had to go out and execute and they did.”

    The game played out as a back-and-forth battle from the opening tip. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 11 first-half points to spark a 20-5 Thunder run that put the defending champs up 53-49, but San Antonio closed the half with a 7-0 run, capped by a Wembanyama dunk, to carry a 56-53 lead into the locker room. A 16-2 third-quarter run, fueled by 11 points from Champagnie, pushed the Spurs out to an 11-point lead, only for Gilgeous-Alexander to rally the Thunder back with a 12-0 run of his own.

    Wembanyama took over in the fourth quarter: he drained two three-pointers during a 17-9 opening run to the final frame that put San Antonio up 97-86 with eight minutes to play. Just seconds later, he picked up his fifth foul and headed to the bench, giving the Thunder a window to mount a comeback. But San Antonio’s depth held: fill-in big man Luke Kornet blocked a fast-break dunk attempt from Isaiah Hartenstein, and the Spurs extended their lead to 11 points on a Castle layup and a Champagnie three-pointer with five and a half minutes remaining.

    The Thunder made a late push to close the gap in the final seconds, but could never get within a single possession, and the Spurs held on to lock in their Finals spot. The upcoming series will be a rematch of this season’s NBA Cup final, where the Knicks defeated the Spurs 124-113 in Las Vegas back in December, adding an extra layer of narrative to the highly anticipated championship showdown.

  • Soaring prices during the Iran war jeopardize travel to tourism-dependent countries in Asia

    Soaring prices during the Iran war jeopardize travel to tourism-dependent countries in Asia

    As the Northern Hemisphere’s summer travel season approaches, Southeast Asia’s tourism-reliant economies are grappling with cascading economic shocks stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran, compounding the slow, incomplete recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic that has stretched across the last five years. The combination of skyrocketing energy prices, persistent ceasefire uncertainties and disrupted global supply chains has put the region’s most critical revenue-generating season in serious jeopardy.

    The conflict has sent global jet fuel prices surging to multi-year highs, while persistent instability in the Persian Gulf has forced major regional and international carriers to slash flight capacity, revise flight routes and raise ticket prices sharply. Early in the conflict, widespread airspace closures across the Persian Gulf and intermittent shutdowns of key Gulf airports eliminated vital layover points for long-haul flights heading to Asia, forcing carriers to divert to longer, far more fuel-intensive routes that drive up operational costs exponentially.

    Major airlines across the Asia-Pacific have already implemented deep cuts to their flight schedules. Vietnam Airlines, Malaysian budget carrier AirAsia Group, Hong Kong’s flagship carrier Cathay Pacific and multiple European airlines have all been squeezed by rising fuel costs and reduced demand, resulting in widespread cancellations and schedule adjustments. To offset inflated fuel expenses, carriers have implemented dramatic hikes to fuel surcharges: Cathay Pacific raised its medium-haul fuel surcharge from HK$264 ($34) before the conflict to HK$33 ($80), while long-haul surcharges jumped from HK$569 ($73) to HK$1,362 ($174). Lavinia Lau, Cathay Pacific’s chief customer and commercial officer, confirmed that jet fuel prices remain at extremely elevated levels that have intensified cost pressures, adding that more travelers are booking trips far closer to departure dates – a clear indicator of growing consumer unease about travel costs and stability.

    For many international travelers, the steep rise in airfares has derailed long-planned summer trips to the region. Sandra Awodele, a Washington D.C.-based freelance travel writer who had been planning to cross a Southeast Asian trip off her bucket list this summer, scrapped her plans for a two-week Thailand vacation after seeing current airfare prices. “I looked at flight options and that’s where it ended,” she said.

    The pain of the current crisis is not limited to airlines and travelers – it ripples all the way through local tourism-focused economies, hitting frontline workers and small business owners hardest. For 58-year-old Siv Pech, a tuk-tuk driver in Siem Reap, Cambodia – home to the iconic centuries-old Angkor Wat temple complex that draws millions of visitors annually – daily earnings that once reached up to $20 have plummeted to roughly $5 a day, with half of that sum eaten up by rising gasoline costs. “Some days, I don’t earn even a cent,” Pech said. “With gasoline prices rising and tourism declining, how can we make money?”

    Sokha Sambo, owner of the popular Sambo Khmer & Thai Restaurant in Siem Reap, faces similar strains: the price of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking has surged, squeezing margins so tightly that she struggles to cover payroll for her 14 employees. “I’m worried about gas and goods inflation. It makes the business less profitable and difficult to cover employees’ salaries,” Sambo said. Official data from Siem Reap’s tourism department shows that recorded international and domestic visitor numbers dropped 37.5% year-on-year in the first four months of 2026, a decline that has impacted every sector of the local economy. “This has greatly affected all of us,” Sambo added.

    In Thailand, one of Southeast Asia’s most visited destinations, official data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports confirms that overall visitor numbers fell 7% year-on-year in April, with arrivals from Europe dropping nearly 16% and arrivals from the Middle East plummeting 57%. Le Tuyet Lan, who operates bed-and-breakfast properties in Vietnam’s Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, noted that travel is always the first discretionary expense households cut when economic conditions worsen. In times of crisis, she explained, luxury travelers shift to mid-tier accommodations, mid-range travelers opt for budget options, leaving the lowest tier of the market – made up largely of small local operators – the most exposed. “This will disrupt the whole industry,” she said.

    Tourism has long served as the economic lifeline for most developing Southeast Asian nations, accounting for nearly 11% of total gross domestic product across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in pre-pandemic 2019, according to data from the World Travel and Tourism Council. Today, it contributes almost 13% of GDP in Thailand, 9% in Vietnam, and supports millions of jobs across Cambodia, while bringing critical foreign currency to import-dependent economies across the region. That revenue is more vital than ever, as the war-driven spike in global oil prices has pushed up fuel import costs for nations that depend on the Strait of Hormuz, off Iran’s coast, for the vast majority of their oil and gas imports.

    Economic analysts warn that the cumulative shock of two major crises – the COVID-19 pandemic just five years ago, followed by the current conflict-driven energy crunch – could push hundreds of vulnerable tourism businesses to collapse before demand eventually rebounds. “This, happening within five years of each other, first the pandemic and now the war, is horrible for the tourism industry,” said Jitsai Santaputra, a Bangkok-based analyst with energy consulting firm The Lantau Group. “The war will determine which tourism businesses can survive long enough to benefit from the eventual return of travelers.”

    Forecasts from major financial institutions paint a grim picture for regional growth: Moody’s Analytics estimates that conflict-related spillovers will reduce overall economic growth across the Asia-Pacific by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points in 2026. “The conflict will weigh on growth mainly through higher production costs and consumer prices, along with weaker external demand from trade and tourism,” said Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank. A recent report from the United Nations Development Program echoed that warning, noting that higher airfares and falling travel confidence can rapidly spill over to erode household livelihoods and cut public revenues in economies where tourism is the primary source of jobs, income and foreign exchange.

  • Euphrates flooding displaces thousands in Syria’s Deir Ezzor

    Euphrates flooding displaces thousands in Syria’s Deir Ezzor

    A devastating flood event triggered by sharply rising water levels along the Euphrates River has left more than 2,400 families across Syria’s eastern Deir Ezzor province grappling with widespread disruption, submerging entire rural villages, destroying critical farmland, and cutting off access to basic life-sustaining services across the hard-hit region.

    The flood crisis, which has been most severe in Deir Ezzor and neighboring Raqqa governorate since the unexpected water surge began on May 26, has been officially attributed by Syria’s Ministry of Energy to two key factors: unusually heavy rainfall across the river basin this season, and the opening of floodgates on upstream dams located in Turkish territory along the Euphrates.

    Labeling the sudden increase in cross-border water flows as “unprecedented”, the Ministry of Energy confirmed that it took the emergency step of opening three spillway gates at Syria’s own Euphrates Dam — a measure not required for more than three decades — to reduce dangerous structural pressure on the key infrastructure.

    By the end of the first week of the crisis, Syrian authorities announced that diplomatic and technical coordination between the Syrian government and their Turkish counterparts had yielded progress, with Turkey beginning to reduce the volume of water released into Syrian territory via the river.

    In a public video statement posted to the social platform X, Syrian Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir confirmed that water levels along the entire stretch of the Euphrates running through Syria are gradually stabilizing after the emergency structural measures implemented at the country’s main Euphrates Dam. He added that government monitoring teams will remain deployed around the clock to track water conditions until levels return to their normal, safe range.

    Tragedy struck in the early hours of the flood emergency, when three children lost their lives after entering the swollen Euphrates to swim, despite repeated public warnings issued by Syria’s Emergency and Disaster Management Minister Raed al-Saleh to avoid all contact with the dangerous rising waters.

    Beyond the fatal incident, the swelling floodwaters forced dozens of households to flee their inundated residences, and left multiple small villages partially cut off from the outside world after key access roads and river crossing structures were damaged or swept away by the current.

    In response to the crisis, Syrian emergency response teams have been deployed across the affected region to carry out urgent work: reinforcing vulnerable riverbanks to prevent further breach, coordinating the evacuation of residents from high-risk low-lying areas, and conducting systematic assessments of damage to public and private infrastructure.

    On Friday, al-Saleh issued an official update confirming that water levels across the affected stretch of the Euphrates have returned to normal baseline, and no new instances of uncontrolled flooding have been recorded across the region.

    To wrap up the first week of the emergency response, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa traveled to Deir Ezzor province on Friday alongside a full senior ministerial delegation, to conduct an on-site assessment of the flood damage and meet with affected communities to review their immediate humanitarian needs.

    This reporting was originally published by Middle East Eye, an outlet that provides independent, in-depth coverage of events across the Middle East, North Africa, and surrounding regions.