Global Pulse

标签： Asia

亚洲

  • Exclusive: Karim Khan says he would cooperate with an inquiry into Cameron’s alleged ICC threat

    Exclusive: Karim Khan says he would cooperate with an inquiry into Cameron’s alleged ICC threat

    The top British prosecutor at the International Criminal Court has confirmed he will fully cooperate with any parliamentary inquiry into a high-stakes April 2024 phone call with then-UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron, during which Cameron allegedly threatened to cut British funding and withdraw the UK from the court over planned arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials.

    Karim Khan, the ICC’s chief prosecutor, shared new details of the conversation in an exclusive interview with Middle East Eye published this week. The news outlet first broke the story of the call in June 2024, revealing the conversation took place weeks before Khan formally applied for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza. According to the original reporting, Cameron warned Khan that the UK would pull its funding and exit the ICC’s founding Rome Statute if the warrants were issued, framing the move as equivalent to detonating a “hydrogen bomb” for the court.

    Since the allegations first emerged, dozens of British parliamentarians have called for a formal investigation by the Foreign Office and a full inquiry by the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee. The UK Foreign Office has repeatedly declined to issue any public comment on the contents of the call, and has thus far stonewalled requests from opposition lawmakers for transparency and investigation.

    While Khan declined to take a public stance on whether a UK government-led probe is required, noting that “others must decide what, if anything, to do,” he made clear that he would not resist a parliamentary inquiry. “Of course I would consider it and cooperate,” he stated, describing the 2024 conversation as a deeply “difficult” exchange.

    Khan recalled that Cameron told him he “had lost the plot” and would be perceived as unfit for office if the court moved forward with the warrants as planned. “There were a number of questions that were posed, and consequences were, or likely consequences, were conveyed to me in what was a difficult conversation,” Khan said. He added that Cameron left no doubt that the UK, one of the ICC’s largest financial backers, along with the U.S. and the ruling Conservative Party at the time, would turn against the court over the move, a prediction Khan admitted “he was right” about.

    A number of leading international law experts have concluded that Cameron’s alleged actions could qualify as a criminal offense under Article 70 of the Rome Statute, which explicitly prohibits interference with the ICC’s administration of justice. Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Palestine, called the alleged threat “incredibly serious” last year, noting that “a threat against the ICC, direct or indirect, is an obstruction of justice.”

    For Khan, a British barrister who says he owes his entire career to the UK’s legal system, the conversation was a particularly disappointing breach of the principles the country has long claimed to uphold. “I love this country and I’m a great admirer of the British legal system. I owe everything to it. I’m very proud to be a member of the bar. And I think the United Kingdom, if it stands for anything, it stands for the law,” he said.

    Khan argued that in a post-Brexit era where the UK no longer holds the global military influence it once did, upholding commitments to international law and treaty obligations is one of the country’s core remaining contributions to global order. “Because if your word is your bond, that’s exactly what applies at the international level. So I felt very sad when I had that conversation, because from somebody that was a former prime minister, I expected more. I thought he would know better,” he reflected.

    The prosecutor also drew a clear parallel to domestic UK politics, noting Cameron would never have dared speak to a British domestic prosecutor or attorney general in the same threatening manner, even during the high-profile Partygate scandal that brought down former Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “I don’t think he would have spoken to an attorney general or a director of public prosecutions in that manner, regarding Partygate or something on those lines. It wouldn’t be acceptable,” he said. “It was disappointing because we want the United Kingdom and every country, actually, of the world equally, to represent the best of itself, which includes compliance with international law and obligations, and respect to public servants that are seeking, with whatever limitations they have, to serve the public good or the international good. We need to protect judges and prosecutors domestically, and the same applies internationally.”

    A source close to Cameron, speaking to journalist Peter Oborne for his book *Complicit: Britain’s Role in the Destruction of Gaza*, acknowledged the call took place and admitted it was “robust,” but pushed back on the threat characterization, claiming Cameron only warned that hardline Conservative lawmakers would push for defunding and withdrawal, rather than issuing a direct threat himself. When asked about this alternative account, Khan noted that “can be differences of recollection,” but pointed out that witnesses were present on both sides of the call: while the Foreign Office has previously claimed Khan was the only person present, MEE reporting confirms Cameron’s special assistant Baroness Liz Sugg also listened in, alongside a member of Khan’s own office team.

    Political pressure for a full investigation has been building across the UK. Former Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf called on the current Labour government to “come clean” earlier this year, arguing that “the more they try to obfuscate and obstruct, the clearer it becomes they have something to hide.” Yousaf urged current Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper to release all correspondence related to the call and launch a full independent probe. Senior Labour MPs Richard Burgon and Imran Hussain wrote to the government in December 2025, arguing the severity of the allegations demands a “clear, transparent and independent examination” of whether political leaders attempted to improperly interfere with the ICC’s work.

    The previous Labour government, which took office in 2025, has so far refused to open an investigation. Responding to a July 2025 letter from Labour MP Andy Slaughter asking whether the allegations against Cameron would be probed, Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer wrote in November that “it is not the practice of this Government to comment on the actions of previous Governments on such matters,” adding that the UK “respects the role and independence of the International Criminal Court.”

    The phone call controversy comes amid ongoing external pressure on Khan over his Gaza war crimes investigation. The prosecutor stepped back for extended leave in May 2024 pending a UN investigation into unsubstantiated sexual misconduct allegations against him. In March 2026, a judicial panel appointed by the ICC’s Assembly of State Parties (ASP) bureau concluded the investigation found no evidence of “misconduct or breach of duty” by Khan. Despite the panel’s clear ruling, a bloc of Western and European states voted to disregard the findings and launch a second investigation, forcing Khan to remain out of office. Khan has publicly accused ASP bureau members of subverting basic legal principles by ignoring the outcome of the inquiry they themselves commissioned.

  • Two Tehrans: The parallel lives of a city

    Two Tehrans: The parallel lives of a city

    On a recent evening along a busy central thoroughfare in Tehran, two starkly contrasting scenes played out just meters apart, laying bare the fractured reality of everyday life in Iran’s capital after months of rapid, disorienting crisis. On one side of the street, a street vendor knelt on the asphalt, sorting small household goods across a spread of clothing, his work illuminated only by the headlights of passing honking cars. “Look, this is our life now,” he muttered, a quiet complaint more than a conversation, as pedestrians drifted past—some pausing to glance at his wares, others hurrying on without stopping.

    Across the road, a crowd had slowly assembled, their rally amplified by blaring loudspeakers. Flags waved, patriotic songs rang out, and slogans denouncing the United States and Israel echoed into the dark night. This juxtaposition of private hardship and public mobilization is no accident: it has become the defining feature of life in Tehran in 2025, after a sequence of events that has upended long-held assumptions about what Iranians can expect from the future.

    It was just last June when Iran entered into a 12-day direct conflict with Israel, a confrontation that eventually drew in the United States and marked the most large-scale direct clash between the major powers in the region in decades. That confrontation was followed in January by nationwide protests, which were met with a harsh government crackdown and a nearly four-week total national internet shutdown. By April, just a few months later, Iranians found themselves locked in another 40-day cycle of escalating tension, breaking only for a fragile ceasefire that has done little to resolve underlying instability.

    For decades, most Iranians’ core daily worries centered on slow-burning economic decline and tightening civil restrictions, not the sudden threat of open war and persistent systemic instability. This new wave of crisis has shifted not just daily routines, but the very boundaries of what residents believe could happen next.

    “Before all of this – the war, the destruction, seeing civilians caught in the crossfire – we thought we just had to struggle through economic pressure, rising prices, and growing restrictions,” explained Nafiseh, a Tehran-based language teacher, in an interview with Middle East Eye. “Life was already difficult, but we never imagined it could reach this point, or God forbid, get even worse.”

    Even after the fragile April ceasefire took hold, the economic damage of repeated crises remains impossible to miss. Strikes on key industrial and petrochemical facilities, paired with months of broad instability, have exacerbated long-running economic strain that touches every corner of daily life. Residents consistently describe the same tangible hardships: skyrocketing prices for essential goods, soaring costs for food and medication, and rapidly shrinking purchasing power. Job losses have also spiked dramatically.

    Some businesses have been hit by direct damage to industrial sites or supply chain disruptions tied to conflict, while thousands more have been pushed to the brink by the prolonged internet shutdown—recognized as the longest nationwide internet blackout in modern global history. The restrictions have pushed large swathes of the workforce out of stable formal employment, particularly for those who rely on digital platforms to reach customers.

    One small manufacturing business owner, who previously built his entire customer base through Instagram, told MEE that his revenue has declined steadily since the start of the year, and he now struggles to cover even basic operating costs. “These past months have been heavy,” he said. “First the protests, then the war. After that, everything slowed down. Some days pass so slowly it feels like they never end.”

    The most recent conflict has stretched an already deteriorating economy to breaking point, leaving household incomes increasingly unstable and making even short-term life planning feel like a gamble. This uncertainty extends far beyond economics: it has reshaped how Iranians of all ages think about and prepare for the future. A ride-hailing driver described how his 10-year-old daughter now regularly follows international news updates about the risk of renewed war, a weight no child should have to carry. “A child should be thinking about games,” he said, his voice mixing frustration and disbelief. “Not about war.”

    A short distance from the vendor’s spot on the street, one of the recurring public pro-government rallies that have become common in the two months since the latest escalation got underway. A woman holding a portrait of Iran’s current leadership urged attendees in an on-camera interview to bear current hardships in order to defend the country’s national independence. These events frame the current moment not as a systemic crisis, but as a test of resilience for true believers in the state’s project.

    The rallies are widely understood as part of a coordinated push by Iran’s establishment to maintain a visible public presence and project an image of national unity and control to both domestic audiences and the international community. Most are organized or backed by state-linked institutions and networks, combining logistical support like free food distribution with speeches, patriotic music, and religious and cultural messaging.

    Interpretations of the gatherings split sharply along already existing divides. For supporters, they are a genuine display of national unity and resistance against external pressure. “We won’t give in to pressure from the US or people like [Donald] Trump,” one rally participant told MEE. “This is not just politics for us. It’s about defending our country and what we believe in. Being here is our way of showing support for those on the front line. We stand by our Nezam (system).”

    For many other Tehran residents, however, the rallies are seen as staged displays that ignore the growing everyday struggles most people face. These deep divides are not just about material conditions—they are about how people perceive hardship, stability, and sacrifice, shaping completely different understandings of the same moment.

    Access to information has also become deeply unequal across the capital. Most ordinary residents face severe restrictions on internet connectivity, limited only to tightly controlled domestic platforms, with access to global websites only available through overpriced VPN packages that are out of reach for many. A small minority of residents with authorized or privileged access retain stable uncensored connectivity, creating completely separate information ecosystems that coexist within the same city blocks.

    Even with these divides, everyday life continues, though it often unfolds under a constant current of low-grade tension. In many neighborhoods, outward signs of normalcy remain: traffic still moves, restaurants stay open, and people still meet friends and family for social gatherings. Markets and shopping malls still see foot traffic, though visitor numbers are far lower than they were a year ago. A shopkeeper at a mall in northern Tehran said the shift in consumer behavior has become impossible to miss since January. “People come in, they look, but they don’t buy like before,” he explained.

    Occasionally, passersby will confront rally participants, calling out the gap between the public displays of unity and the widespread economic pain felt across the city. Open public dissent remains rare, however, shaped by a pervasive climate of security presence and self-censorship. Online, though, frustrations surface far more openly, even on state-approved platforms that many users have been forced to join after global messaging apps were blocked.

    “Politics needs thinking, not street slogans,” one user wrote on a domestic social platform. “What’s the point of standing in the streets shouting? If things go on like this and these people refuse to see reality, it’s our own lives that get smaller.”

    As rumors of possible further escalation spread across the city, some residents have adopted a pragmatic approach to coping with rising anxiety. “I know it’s hard,” said Hamid, a local entrepreneur. “But worrying won’t change anything. We just have to get on with our lives.”

    For many Iranians, this quiet adjustment has become routine. It does not resolve the deep tensions and divides visible across the capital, but it allows daily life to continue. From a distance, Tehran looks like a city functioning as normal: up close, it is a tapestry of overlapping, often contradictory experiences. The same street holds both quiet economic struggle and public displays of patriotic commitment. In Tehran today, life goes on—not as a single shared experience, but as two parallel realities unfolding in the same space.

  • New data on 2022 China plane crash suggests cockpit struggle and fuel cut

    New data on 2022 China plane crash suggests cockpit struggle and fuel cut

    Nearly four and a half years after the March 2022 fatal crash of a China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800 that killed all 132 people on board, newly unsealed flight data obtained by U.S. investigators has pulled back the curtain on a sequence of events that strongly suggests intentional cockpit tampering.

    The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) joined the Chinese-led investigation shortly after the crash, as the jet and its engines were manufactured by U.S.-based companies, and the agency is globally recognized as a leading authority on black box flight data analysis. NTSB published its internal analysis of flight recorder data dated July 1, 2022, but the document was only released in response to a public records request on May 1, with news of the report’s contents breaking publicly earlier this week.

    The flight data reveals a clear pattern: both of the jet’s engines were fully shut down mid-flight, followed by an uncontrolled nosedive and a full 360-degree roll before the aircraft slammed into a mountain. Aerospace safety experts note that the 737’s fuel control levers are designed with a locking mechanism that prevents accidental shutoff. To cut fuel to both engines, a person must intentionally pull both levers out of their locked position and move them to the cutoff position — a sequence that cannot occur from accidental bumps or routine turbulence.

    Former NTSB and Federal Aviation Administration crash investigator Jeff Guzzetti, who has decades of experience probing civilian aviation disasters, says the flight control data bears all the markers of a cockpit struggle over control of the jet. “Typically, when you initiate a roll, you get a smooth, steady movement of the control wheel in one direction,” Guzzetti explained. “But here, the control wheel moved back and forth repeatedly, as if one person was trying to counter another’s input to roll the plane. It’s not conclusive, but it definitely has the earmarks of a struggle in the cockpit.”

    Guzzetti added that the available data aligns with a pattern seen in past intentional pilot crash events, including the 2015 Germanwings crash in the French Alps that killed all 150 people on board, and the 1999 EgyptAir crash off the coast of New York that was attributed to the co-pilot’s deliberate action. The data stops recording when the aircraft was still at 26,000 feet, after the flight recorder and all of the jet’s hydraulic systems lost power following the engine shutoff. While the cockpit voice recorder, powered by a backup battery, continued recording through the final moments of the flight, Chinese civil aviation authorities have not released a transcript of the audio, and remain the lead body responsible for publishing the final investigation report.

    To date, more than four years after the crash, China’s Civil Aviation Administration has not published its full final report. International aviation standards require investigative bodies to aim to release a final report within one year of a crash. Previously, Chinese investigators had shared preliminary findings that found no mechanical abnormalities with the aircraft, no issues with crew credentials, and no external factors such as severe weather that contributed to the crash. John Cox, CEO of aviation safety consulting firm Safety Operating Systems, confirmed the NTSB data shows no evidence of mechanical failure of the jet itself.

    The flight was operating a routine domestic route from Kunming, a major city in southwest China, to Guangzhou, a commercial hub near Hong Kong. Before losing contact with air traffic control, the crew did not report any in-flight emergencies. The jet entered a rapid nosedive from 29,000 feet, briefly showed signs of partial recovery before crashing into a mountainside, leaving a 20-meter crater and igniting a large wildfire in the area.

    The revelations from the declassified NTSB report have reignited longstanding debates across the global aviation industry over pilot mental health protocols. Currently, many commercial pilots around the world avoid seeking professional help for mental health concerns out of fear that a diagnosis will lead to the immediate revocation of their flight medical certification, grounding them without pay for months or longer while they navigate a lengthy, arduous recertification process. Many nations also ban commercial pilots from taking common psychiatric medications such as antidepressants, even when the medication effectively manages symptoms and does not impair flight ability.

    Recent high-profile incidents have underscored the ongoing risks of this approach: in 2023, an off-duty Horizon Air pilot who had used psychedelic mushrooms days prior attempted to shut off the engines of the commercial flight he was riding in the jumpseat of, an incident that only failed because other crew members intervened to stop him.

    The 2022 China Eastern crash was a devastating outlier for China’s commercial aviation industry, which has achieved a strong modern safety record following a string of deadly accidents in the 1990s that spurred widespread regulatory overhauls. China Eastern Airlines is one of China’s four large state-owned major air carriers.

  • Crowds cheer China’s new snooker star on return from championship win

    Crowds cheer China’s new snooker star on return from championship win

    When 22-year-old newly crowned world snooker champion Wu Yize stepped through the doors of Xi’an’s TNT Billiards Club on Wednesday, he was greeted not with a quiet casual welcome, but with the kind of deafening chants and roaring cheers usually reserved for A-list rock stars. The soft-spoken young athlete waved shyly to the crowd, his demeanor betraying the awkwardness of a rising star still adjusting to the sudden flood of national fame that followed his historic win earlier this week. Yet his understated modesty did nothing to dim the fierce enthusiasm of hundreds of fans who traveled from across the country just to catch a glimpse of the athlete who just made snooker history.

    Wu’s victory at the World Snooker Championship marks a landmark moment for China: he is the second Chinese player in as many years to take home the sport’s most prestigious title, and the second-youngest competitor in history to claim the crown. What has turned his win into a national obsession, however, is far more than just back-to-back global titles. Wu’s journey to the top is a classic underdog fairytale: at just 16 years old, he dropped out of school and moved alone to Sheffield, England, the global heart of professional snooker, to chase his dream of turning pro. As a teen living abroad, he shared a windowless apartment with his father, sleeping in the same bed to cut costs while he honed his craft. Now, after claiming the world title, he says he plans to use his prize money to buy a proper home for his parents in England, so they can continue supporting his career.

    Hailing from Gansu, a less economically developed inland province in northwest China known mostly for its vast deserts, Wu’s rags-to-riches story has resonated deeply with fans across the country. Dozens of supporters traveled for hours via high-speed rail from Gansu to Xi’an just to attend Wednesday’s celebration. Li Hao, one fan who made the multi-hour trip, called Wu’s journey “a reminder that no matter where you come from, you can reach the top if you work for it.” Another fan brought a years-old photo of Wu to get autographed, saying he’d always known the young player would go on to greatness.

    During the homecoming event, Wu put on a demonstration of his iconic skill for the gathered crowd, drawing gasps of awe from onlookers as he pulled off signature trick shots. He even played a short match against Liu Yifei, a local amateur player who won a qualifying play-off to earn the chance to compete against the champion. Liu said Wu’s historic win has inspired her to push harder to improve her own snooker skills, and that she expects to see many more young Chinese players follow in his footsteps in coming years.

    Wu told the BBC that he was overwhelmed by the warmth of his homecoming, saying, “It’s great to feel the warmth of my homeland.”

    Wu’s victory comes at a time of explosive growth for snooker across China. Industry estimates show roughly 60 million people play billiards annually in the country, spread across more than 300,000 dedicated halls. Today, Chinese competitors make up 25% of all players on the global professional snooker circuit, a share that is expected to grow as more young people take up the sport. One of the youngest fans in attendance at Wednesday’s event, an eight-year-old boy, told reporters he already practices regularly, and that his big goal is to one day win the world championship just like Wu.

    Experts point to multiple factors driving snooker’s rising popularity in China. One key draw is that the sport remains relatively affordable to play, making it accessible to players even in less developed regions like western China, where average incomes lag behind the wealthy coastal southeast. For many young people from working-class and rural backgrounds, Wu’s success has turned snooker into a tangible path to achievement, opening a new dream for generations of aspiring athletes.

  • Netflix will air Week 1 matchup between 49ers and Rams in Australia, AP source says

    Netflix will air Week 1 matchup between 49ers and Rams in Australia, AP source says

    In a groundbreaking move that expands the NFL’s global footprint and streaming partnerships, streaming giant Netflix will carry the highly anticipated Week 1 NFC West rivalry matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams live from Melbourne, Australia, an anonymous source familiar with the league’s planning confirmed to The Associated Press on Thursday. The source requested anonymity because the full 2025 NFL regular-season schedule has not yet been finalized for public release.

    The historic cross-Pacific clash is scheduled to kick off in primetime for U.S. viewers at 8:35 p.m. Eastern Time and 5:35 p.m. Pacific Time on September 10. Due to time zone differences—Melbourne sits 14 hours ahead of New York and 17 hours ahead of the two teams’ home markets on the U.S. West Coast—the game will start at 10:35 a.m. local time on September 11 for Australian sports fans.

    This game marks a major milestone for the NFL’s international expansion efforts: it is one of nine regular-season international matchups the league will stage during the 2025 campaign, and the first NFL regular-season game ever to be held in Australia. The Rams, led by reigning AP NFL Most Valuable Player Matthew Stafford, will serve as the designated home team for the contest. Last season, the two NFC West foes split their regular-season head-to-head series, with 49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy leading his team to one win over Stafford and the Rams.

    The NFL’s 2025 season will officially get underway one day earlier, on September 9, with the annual kickoff game featuring the Seattle Seahawks, who will host the contest as they begin their defense of their Super Bowl title. The league has not yet announced the Seahawks’ opponent for the opening matchup. League insiders note a Super Bowl LX rematch is a strong possibility for the kickoff slot, as the New England Patriots are currently scheduled to travel to Seattle for the 2025 season. This follows the league’s 2024 scheduling pattern, which placed the Super Bowl LIX rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2.

    This season’s early September 10 Week 1 kickoff is only the second time the NFL has opened its regular season on a Wednesday. The only prior instance came in 2012, when the New York Giants hosted the Dallas Cowboys to avoid a scheduling conflict with President Barack Obama’s keynote address on the final night of that year’s Democratic National Convention.

    As of Thursday, league officials were still putting the final touches on the full 2025 schedule, with an official public announcement expected as early as next week. Insiders add the league aims to complete the schedule before the weekend, as major broadcast network upfronts—annual events where networks sell advertising inventory for the upcoming fall season—are set to begin on Monday. Traditionally, linear broadcast partners reveal their top showcase games to advertisers during these upfront events.
    Netflix, which has held exclusive rights to NFL Christmas Day games for the past two seasons, is also in consideration to carry additional matchups on key holiday dates this coming season, including the day before Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve. The streaming service is already confirmed to air another two Christmas Day games in 2025, extending its expanding relationship with the league.

  • War gains, long-term pain: Wall Street’s core business at risk due to Iran war

    War gains, long-term pain: Wall Street’s core business at risk due to Iran war

    In the wake of the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, initial market reactions have painted a misleading picture of Wall Street’s fortunes, according to senior market analysts interviewed by Middle East Eye. While immediate short-term windfalls from spiking oil prices and amplified market volatility have lifted headline earnings, these gains are masking a growing slowdown in dealmaking that threatens the foundation of the finance industry’s core operations.

    Within days of the conflict’s launch, global oil prices surged dramatically, with Brent crude jumping 8.6% to roughly $72 per barrel in the first trading session after hostilities broke out. This spike lifted share values for major energy giants including ExxonMobil and Chevron, while heightened market turbulence drove a sharp uptick in trading revenues across major investment banks. Defense sector equities also rallied early on, with leading contractors Northrop Grumman, RTX Corporation and Lockheed Martin all posting immediate gains on expectations of expanded military spending. Goldman Sachs even reported a 48% jump in investment banking fees to $2.84 billion, with the bank acknowledging the conflict had given trading revenues a measurable boost.

    But these early, visible gains hide deeper underlying vulnerabilities, experts warn. While first-quarter 2025 earnings appear strong on paper, the vast majority of that performance traces back to transactions that were finalized before the first strikes on Iran on February 28. The full negative impact of the conflict on global deal flow is only just beginning to emerge.

    “Wall Street has done meaningfully less well out of the Iran war than might meet the eye,” explained Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at tastylive, a U.S.-based financial media and trading platform. Today, Wall Street executives are sounding the alarm that the conflict is complicating cross-border and domestic transactions, delaying planned initial public offerings (IPOs), and putting the entire pipeline of mergers, acquisitions (M&A) and new stock listings at risk.

    The early upward momentum across conflict-linked sectors also proved far from sustainable. While defense stocks jumped initially, many individual firms have struggled to hold gains in subsequent weeks, leaving the broader aerospace and defense sector largely flat for the year to date. Energy equities have followed a similar trajectory, giving up all their post-conflict gains after peaking in early March. Spivak added that recent broad market rebounds are “more driven by opportunistic attempts to ‘buy the dip’ in Magnificent 7 (Mag7) stocks rather than reflecting actual war-related upside for companies.” The Mag7—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla—are seven large-cap tech names that have driven the vast majority of U.S. market growth in recent years.

    The core challenge, Spivak explained, is that trading revenue cannot fully offset a slowdown in traditional dealmaking. Trading operations require far heavier infrastructure investment and deliver significantly thinner profit margins than the advisory and underwriting work that forms the core of investment banking profitability. “Increased volatility can help offset a slowdown in dealmaking, but its thinner margins—of 25 to 45 percent, compared with those for investment banking of 45 to 65 percent—mean that you need about $1.50 in trading revenue to make up $1 of dealmaking revenue,” Spivak said.

    That gap is already showing up in hard data. As of early March, the number of announced U.S. mergers had fallen roughly 23% year-over-year to 1,795, a drop that reflects both pre-existing market weakness and new uncertainty fueled by the conflict. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has openly acknowledged that IPO activity slowed sharply in March, with seven of the 10 largest U.S. listings from the first quarter trading below their offer price within a month of launch.

    “The disruption runs deeper than Wall Street’s earnings headlines suggest,” said Javed Hassan, a former investment banker who previously worked in London and Hong Kong for Swiss Re’s investment banking division. Hassan noted that major global banks with large trade finance portfolios—including Citigroup, HSBC and Standard Chartered—have already flagged rising counterparty risks in commodity-linked transactions. “The difficulty is not just energy prices, it is that no one can write a contract with confidence when the baseline keeps shifting,” Hassan said. “That uncertainty is the supply chain dimension Wall Street’s earnings headlines are not yet capturing.”

    Geopolitical conflict disrupting global financial markets is not a new phenomenon. Previous major conflicts, from the 2003 Iraq War to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, all triggered equity market pullbacks, widening credit spreads and sharp slowdowns in IPO activity. But Mir Mohammad Ali Khan, founder and former chairman of KMS Investment Bank at 110 Wall Street, argues the Iran conflict is unique due to its direct and lasting impact on global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

    “Previous conflicts, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, did not have the long-term direct impact on US financial markets,” Khan told Middle East Eye. “Letting this conflict drag on is not in Wall Street’s interest.”

    Industry executives now agree that the second quarter of 2025 will be the first full test of the conflict’s impact, as it will be the first period entirely exposed to war-related disruptions. “Looking ahead, planning, engagement and pipelines remain healthy, but of course, developments in the Middle East could have an impact on deal execution and timing,” JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum said. Citigroup CFO Gonzalo Luchetti echoed that warning, noting a prolonged conflict could introduce “risk of deferrals” for planned deals later in the year.

    Those warnings are grounded in the scale of the energy disruption. Before the conflict began, roughly a quarter of all global seaborne oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas traded through the Strait of Hormuz—a key shipping lane that has been effectively closed since early March. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has already labeled the conflict the largest geopolitical oil supply shock on record, estimating that removing nearly one-fifth of global oil supply could cut global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points in a single quarter.

    More than two months into the conflict, the economic fallout is already showing up in broader U.S. economic data. Energy costs rose 10.9% in March alone, pushing average U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon and lifting overall inflation to 3.3%—far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. “This is a one-quarter blip where the effects of it really weren’t being felt, but I don’t really see how this is sustainable,” said William D. Cohan, a former senior Wall Street M&A investment banker with experience at Lazard Frères & Co, Merrill Lynch and JPMorganChase. When corporate profitability falls, he explained, it directly reduces companies’ willingness to pursue new deals or take on borrowed capital. “People like to say Wall Street is not Main Street, [but] Wall Street is highly correlated to Main Street,” Cohan added.

    Rising energy and consumer costs have already rippled through to broader borrowing conditions. U.S. Treasury yields and 30-year mortgage rates have climbed steadily, pushing up borrowing costs across the economy and eliminating room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as markets previously expected.

    “The single most important factor determining the trajectory of stock prices is the central bank’s monetary policy,” said Alex Krainer, a Europe-based market analyst, commodities expert and former hedge fund manager. “Stock markets are going higher not because the economy is growing… but because the Federal Reserve is flooding the financial system with liquidity.” If the conflict continues to fuel persistent inflation, Krainer warned, the dollar’s purchasing power will erode, meaning the nominal market gains investors see on paper will not translate into actual, inflation-adjusted wealth.

    The International Monetary Fund has already downgraded its 2025 global growth forecasts and warned that a prolonged conflict could push the global economy to the brink of recession. For Wall Street, which relies on steady economic growth and cheap borrowing costs to support deal activity, that outcome poses an existential threat to its core revenue model. “Look, Wall Street is a confidence game,” said Cohan. “It’s a hard thing to bet against, but at some point investors, corporations, CEOs are going to have enough of this, and they are going to pull back.”

    Despite the clear short-term risks to profitability, not all analysts agree that Wall Street has an incentive to push for a rapid ceasefire. “Wall Street’s interest is in the war continuing, not stopping. I don’t think they will exert meaningful pressure on the administration for a ceasefire – probably quite the contrary,” Krainer said. Drawing on his conversations with financial and policy industry contacts, Krainer argued that control over Iran’s vast natural resources, rather than regional security, is the core strategic driver for many leading financial players.

    “Wall Street’s objective is primarily to take down the regime in Tehran,” he said. “Iran is the fifth richest nation in the world in terms of natural resources, estimated at $30 trillion. If they were able to install their own puppet in Tehran, all that wealth could become their collateral.” For Wall Street, Krainer argues, the long-term potential strategic prize far outweighs any short-term hits to industry balance sheets from the current conflict-induced deal slowdown.

  • Spain’s leader Sanchez awards UN’s Francesca Albanese Order of Civil Merit

    Spain’s leader Sanchez awards UN’s Francesca Albanese Order of Civil Merit

    In a bold act of diplomatic defiance that underscores deep European divides over the Gaza conflict and international accountability, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez bestowed one of his country’s highest civilian honors on Thursday upon Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur for Occupied Palestine who has been targeted with unprecedented U.S. sanctions for her work documenting human rights abuses and potential genocide in Gaza.

    In an official statement announcing the award of the Order of Civil Merit, Sanchez emphasized that holding public office carries an inherent moral duty to confront injustice rather than ignore it. “It is an honour to award the Order of Civil Merit to a voice that upholds the conscience of the world: Francesca Albanese, United Nations Special Rapporteur in the Occupied Palestinian Territory,” he wrote.

    The ceremony and honor came just 24 hours after Sanchez took another high-profile stand against U.S. punitive measures targeting international justice bodies: he formally called on the European Commission to trigger the EU’s long-dormant Blocking Statute, a legal tool designed to protect European individuals and institutions from extraterritorial sanctions imposed by non-EU powers. Speaking a day ahead of the award, Sanchez rejected any tolerance for what he framed as a targeted campaign of intimidation. “The EU cannot stand idly by in the face of this persecution,” he said, adding that Brussels must defend the independence of both the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the United Nations, as well as their critical work “to end the genocide in Gaza.” “Sanctioning those who defend international justice puts the entire human rights system at risk,” he added.

    Albanese, the first and so far only UN special rapporteur to face U.S. sanctions over her official mandate, was targeted by the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump last year. The restrictions, which include a visa ban that bars her from entering the United States and a freeze on any assets she holds in U.S. jurisdictions, were imposed over her documentation of human rights violations in the occupied Palestinian territories and her longstanding cooperation with the ICC’s investigations into potential atrocity crimes.

    The ICC, based in The Hague, Netherlands, is the world’s only permanent international court with a mandate to prosecute individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Relations between the U.S. and the court have collapsed entirely since ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan sought arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant earlier this year, accusing the pair of overseeing systematic war crimes and atrocities in Gaza that began in October 2023. In addition to Albanese, the Trump administration has now imposed sanctions on 11 senior ICC officials, covering not only the court’s work on Gaza but also its long-running investigation into potential war crimes in Afghanistan connected to U.S. and Taliban forces.

    Albanese was specifically sanctioned in July 2024 for her ongoing investigation into allegations of genocide in Gaza and her work with the ICC as part of her UN-mandated role. In addition to the travel and asset restrictions, the sanctions have cut her off from core global financial infrastructure, preventing her from completing routine daily transactions, she told Middle East Eye earlier this year. In February 2025, Albanese and her family filed a legal challenge against the Trump administration over the punitive measures, arguing they violate U.S. law and fundamental due process rights.

    Since the outbreak of the current Israel-Gaza conflict in October 2023, Albanese has released four major official reports as special rapporteur, all of which have concluded that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza meets the legal definition of genocide. She has also repeatedly condemned what she frames as global economic and political powers that have enabled and supported Israel’s operation, providing diplomatic cover and military supplies despite mounting evidence of atrocity crimes. Her most recent report called on the ICC to expand its arrest warrant list to include three senior Israeli cabinet ministers, whom she accuses of overseeing systematic torture of Palestinian civilians that amounts to acts of genocide.

    Sanchez has emerged as the most outspoken critic among European Union leaders of what he frames as repeated violations of international law by Israel and the United States, not only in Gaza but across broader Middle East policy including tensions with Iran. He made history earlier this year as the first EU head of government to publicly label Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as genocide, a stance that has put him at sharp odds with Washington and several Western European allies.

  • Israeli army disables rocket-tracking system over Iran intelligence fears

    Israeli army disables rocket-tracking system over Iran intelligence fears

    Amid ongoing low-intensity hostilities along Israel’s northern border and growing national anxiety over Iranian intelligence infiltration, a controversial decision by the Israeli Home Front Command to cut access to a critical missile impact alert system has sparked fierce backlash from local leaders and security officials across northern Israeli communities, Israeli outlet Ynet reported Thursday.

    The disabled infrastructure, which once shared real-time data on potential missile strike impact zones with local first responders and municipal leadership, was taken offline by military authorities over explicit concerns that Iranian intelligence operatives could exploit the platform to harvest precise location data. Military officials argue that this information would allow Iran and its regional proxy militia Hezbollah to refine the accuracy and destructive power of future attacks against Israeli targets.

    Strict military censorship rules have governed all reporting of missile impact locations across Israel since the outbreak of open conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025. International and domestic Israeli media outlets are already banned from disclosing the exact coordinates of strikes, particularly those targeting strategic and military infrastructure, and the military’s latest move extends this information control to frontline local response teams.

    For years, the restricted system served as a core operational tool for local authorities, enabling them to rapidly deploy emergency rescue and response teams directly to sites hit by rocket and missile fire. But today, the shutdown has left northern response teams operating without critical situational awareness, according to local leaders.

    Assaf Langleben, head of the Upper Galilee Regional Council, warned that the decision has created a state of “operational blindness” across the entire northern frontier. “It is absurd that Hezbollah knows where it is firing, so at least we should also know and be able to deal with the incidents and the responses we are required to provide,” Langleben said in an interview with Ynet.

    Avichai Stern, mayor of the key northern border city Kiryat Shmona, echoed this criticism, emphasizing that the alert system had a proven track record of saving lives amid repeated cross-border fire. “Leaving us without [the system] means abandoning even more lives in an area where most residents already lack protection,” Stern said, adding that “now we are also not being given the ability to go out, rescue and save them during fire.”

    Frontline civil security personnel in the region have described chaotic, dangerous working conditions in the wake of the shutdown. A civil security officer based in Kiryat Shmona told Ynet that in recent alarm events, response teams have “operated like blind mice.” The official added, “When I don’t have this tool, I don’t know where to run. We are ahead of another round, Hezbollah will again target our homes, and our residents will pay the price.”

    Another civil security officer from a local northern council criticized military leadership for choosing a blanket shutdown over targeted security reforms, saying “No one talks to us, explains, or thinks they owe us answers. They simply cut us off. In the army, instead of dealing with how to handle and prevent leaks, they chose the easiest solution and shut everyone out. They irresponsibly chose to punish us.”

    In an official statement to Ynet, an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson defended the order, noting that the platform “contains sensitive information, and during the war cases were identified that required adjustments to procedures and a reduction of access permissions in order to prevent harm to information security.”

    Military concerns over Iranian infiltration come against a backdrop of a sharp rise in domestic espionage cases linked to Tehran. Israeli outlet Ma’ariv has reported that more than 40 indictments have been filed against roughly 60 Israeli civilians on espionage charges since October 2023. Iranian intelligence is known to recruit Israeli operatives through large financial incentives, in exchange for documenting strategic locations and facilitating attacks inside Israeli territory.

    Just this week, Israeli leading outlet Haaretz exposed a major intelligence breach revealing that Iranian operatives have obtained secret sensitive data on researchers at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Israel’s premier independent security think tank with formal ties to the Israeli military and Tel Aviv University. Over a six-year period, Iran collected personal identifiable information on dozens of INSS researchers — many of whom are retired senior Israeli security and military officials — alongside detailed records of closed-door meetings between INSS personnel and Israeli military leadership.

  • Venice Biennale targeted by strike action and protests over Israel’s involvement

    Venice Biennale targeted by strike action and protests over Israel’s involvement

    One of the world’s most prestigious international arts events, the 2026 Venice Biennale, has become the center of a growing global protest movement demanding the exclusion of Israel’s national pavilion, with a 24-hour cross-sector cultural strike scheduled for Friday during the festival’s pre-opening events. This planned industrial action marks the first organized strike in the 130-plus year history of the iconic exhibition, growing out of mounting demonstrations that launched on the festival’s opening press week over both Israel and Russia’s inclusion in this year’s event.

    The unrest began on Wednesday, when the Art Not Genocide Alliance (ANGA), the coalition leading the protest movement, held a mass direct action outside Israel’s temporary exhibition space at the Venice Biennale’s Arsenale complex. Hundreds of demonstrators, including participating artists, Biennale workers, and activist supporters, assembled with placards reading “No artwashing genocide” and “No genocide pavilion” to hear addresses from cultural figures taking part in this year’s event. Protesters argue that Israel has no place at a global arts gathering after it killed dozens of Palestinian artists and destroyed hundreds of cultural and artistic sites during its ongoing military campaign in Gaza, which the coalition describes as a state-led genocide.

    In a public statement released during the demonstration, ANGA reaffirmed the group’s core position: “We are here to express our refusal to tolerate genocidal destruction in the name of freedom.”

    The Wednesday protest came after Biennale leadership refused to respond to a March 17 open letter from ANGA demanding the immediate expulsion of Israel’s national pavilion. The letter, which called for Israel’s full exclusion from the event, was signed by 236 participating artists, curators, and Biennale workers, including internationally renowned cultural figures Alfredo Jaar, Brian Eno, Lubaina Himid, Yto Barrada, and Cauleen Smith.

    “No artist or cultural worker should be asked to share a platform with this genocidal state,” the letter read. “As long as Israel exists by means of genocide, ethnic cleansing and apartheid, it must not be represented at the Venice Biennale.” The letter also highlighted that Israeli military operations have deliberately targeted cultural infrastructure, a core value the Biennale claims to uphold.

    ANGA has repeatedly clarified that its opposition targets state representation, not individual Israeli artists. “A national pavilion at the Venice Biennale is an official cultural representation of that state,” the group explained in comments earlier this year. ANGA added that it opposes the use of dissenting Israeli artists who oppose the Gaza campaign as “cultural cover for state violence,” noting that the current setup forces all participating Israeli artists into an impossible position, requiring them to legitimize the state’s actions regardless of their personal political beliefs.

    This year’s controversy is not an isolated incident. The 2024 art Biennale saw ANGA launch a similar campaign against Israel’s participation, collecting more than 24,000 signatures on an open letter demanding exclusion. That campaign ultimately ended when the selected Israeli artist, Ruth Patir, voluntarily closed the pavilion in protest of Israel’s military actions. In response to Patir’s move, the Israeli government added a mandatory clause to the 2026 pavilion contract requiring the selected artist to keep the space open for the full run of the event.

    For 2026, Israel is not exhibiting in its permanent Giardini pavilion, which it has operated since 1952. The Israeli culture ministry claimed the permanent space needed structural renovations, so the Biennale granted Israel permission to host its exhibition in a temporary space at the Arsenale rather than requiring it to rent private venue space. ANGA has condemned this accommodation as “an explicit institutional endorsement of Israel at a moment of escalating violence” in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

    Friday’s 24-hour cultural strike, a first in Biennale history, is being coordinated by ANGA alongside a coalition of local and international grassroots cultural groups including Biennalocene, Sale Docks, Mi Riconosci, and Vogliamo Tutt’altro. Three major Italian trade unions — Associazione Difesa Lavoratori (ADL Cobas), Unione Sindacale di Base (USB), and Confederazione Unitaria di Base (CUB) — have also joined the call for action. This is not the first time Italian labor groups have taken action against Israel: Italian dockworkers have previously staged industrial action refusing to load military cargo bound for Israel.

    “This is the first ever organised strike to occur within the Biennale,” ANGA said. “It will be a crucial moment, bringing together different organisations and sending a clear message during the pre-opening days of the Biennale.”

    Israel’s inclusion is not the only point of contention at this year’s festival. The Biennale has also drawn widespread criticism for allowing Russia to return to the exhibition for the first time since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the Italian culture ministry has publicly supported Israel’s participation, it has publicly opposed Russia’s inclusion. Russia’s 2026 entry is co-led by Anastasia Karneeva, daughter of a former Russian intelligence officer, and Ekaterina Vinokurova, daughter of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

    Biennale chairman Pietrangelo Buttafuoco, a right-wing Sicilian journalist who converted to Islam in 2015, defended the festival’s decision to include both countries during a Wednesday press conference. “This whole world born of the French revolution, the Enlightenment and secularism has flipped into its exact opposite: a laboratory of intolerance, and demands for censorship, closure and exclusion,” Buttafuoco said. “The Biennale is not a court; it is a garden of peace. We cannot shut it down, we cannot boycott as an automatic response. We must discuss. We may disagree, and we do so forcefully.”

    The Venice Biennale alternates annually between art and architecture editions, and opens to the general public on Saturday after a week of private pre-opening events, with protests expected to draw thousands of additional demonstrators to Venice this week.

  • Gulf states derailed Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ by cutting US access to airspace and bases

    Gulf states derailed Trump’s ‘Project Freedom’ by cutting US access to airspace and bases

    A sudden diplomatic backlash from key Gulf allies has forced the Trump administration to backtrack on a high-stakes military plan to reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, throwing Washington’s Iran war strategy into disarray just as new peace talks emerge. The abrupt reversal of what President Donald Trump dubbed “Project Freedom” came after both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait halted U.S. military access to their sovereign airspace and strategically critical military bases, multiple U.S. and regional sources confirm.