Speaking at a Hong Kong investment forum on Tuesday, HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery drew attention to a stark gap between widely cited Western oil benchmark prices and the exorbitant actual costs that Asian buyers are currently facing, triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran.
Against a backdrop of intensifying conflict in the Middle East, global headline oil prices have already climbed above $100 per barrel, but Elhedery warned these public figures do not capture the full extent of the market disruption.
“What worries me is not the headlines. I mean, oil headline is above $100, $110,” Elhedery stated in comments recorded by Bloomberg and obtained by independent news outlet Sherwood. “Realistically, if you are now trying to get oil from the Middle East, you may be paying $140, $150.”
The most extreme recorded case he cited saw a single barrel of oil reach $286 for buyers in Sri Lanka, a small South Asian island nation heavily dependent on imported Middle Eastern energy supplies.
Current benchmark prices paint a far rosier picture than on-ground market conditions. As of this week, U.S.-based West Texas Intermediate trades around $91 per barrel, while the global benchmark Brent hovers near $95. The Omani benchmark, which is most closely aligned to Asian trade flows, sits around $100 per barrel – still less than two-thirds of the $150 price tag Elhedery says most Asian importers now pay.
The root of this gap lies in rapidly tightening energy supplies driven by geopolitical escalation. Iran has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass, halting most oil exports from Gulf nations. In response, the U.S. has implemented its own full blockade of Iranian oil exports this week, further squeezing available supply. Oil shipments through the strait have slowed to a fraction of normal volumes, leaving importers scrambling to secure alternative cargoes.
While Saudi Arabia has stepped in as the region’s largest remaining exporter, moving roughly five million barrels of crude daily through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, this shift has brought new layers of cost that are not reflected in standard benchmark pricing. Shipping costs for cargo pulled from the Red Sea now run between $30 and $40 per barrel, a massive jump from pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile, insurance premiums have exploded: what previously cost importers 25 basis points of the cargo value now hits 5 percent, and most underwriters have pulled all war risk coverage entirely, leaving buyers to shoulder that risk at the elevated 5 percent rate.
Geopolitical risks have continued to escalate in the days following Elhedery’s remarks. Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen have already disrupted traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another key Red Sea chokepoint, via repeated attacks on international commercial shipping. On Wednesday, a senior Iranian military commander issued a new threat to shut down all shipping across the Red Sea, Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman unless the U.S. withdraws its blockade on Iranian oil exports. “Iran’s powerful armed forces will not allow any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, or the Red Sea,” stated Major General Ali Abdollahi, head of Iran’s military joint command.
This report was originally published by Middle East Eye, an independent outlet focused on coverage of the Middle East, North Africa and global affairs connected to the region.