分类: world

  • ‘I was lured into a trap’: Evan Gershkovich on moment that led to 16 months in Russian jail

    ‘I was lured into a trap’: Evan Gershkovich on moment that led to 16 months in Russian jail

    In a revealing new interview with BBC Radio 4’s *Today* program, former Wall Street Journal Moscow correspondent Evan Gershkovich has opened up for the first time about the details of his 2023 arrest by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), his 16 months in Russian custody, and the aftermath of his release in a high-profile international prisoner swap last August.

    Gershkovich, 34, who had been living and working in Russia since 2017, described the fateful day of his arrest in Yekaterinburg, 1,000 miles east of Moscow. He had arranged to meet a source for a story at a local restaurant, when six masked men entered the dining hall and approached their table with the unusual line that they had reserved the table. The comment, Gershkovich recalled, was deliberately designed to catch him off guard and freeze him in place. When he and his contact stood up, the FSB informed him he was under arrest on charges of espionage — and he watched as the man he had been meeting disappeared into the crowd.

    It was in that moment, Gershkovich said, that he realized he had been lured into a pre-planned trap. What surprised him most, however, was that he was never interrogated or tortured, tactics that the FSB commonly uses against those accused of spying. This absence of aggressive questioning led Gershkovich to an unexpected realization that brought him a strange sense of relief: he had not been caught as a spy, but intentionally set up to be a political hostage, a bargaining chip in a larger geopolitical game. This understanding, he said, helped him maintain mental stability through his time in prison.

    “They’ve set me up and fabricated this case so that I can be a valuable hostage — a pawn in a greater game,” he explained. “That means it will take a while, but I won’t be here for 12-20 years.” He correctly predicted that his high-profile status as a Western journalist would spark international outcry and eventually lead to a prisoner exchange. His case drew global media attention, with his image displayed on a Times Square billboard and then-U.S. President Joe Biden stating that bringing Gershkovich home was one of his administration’s top priorities.

    Gershkovich was ultimately held in Moscow’s notorious Lefortovo Prison, a facility with a long history of detaining high-profile political prisoners and dissidents dating back to Stalin’s Great Terror, where torture and executions were widespread. He described his time there as a deeply isolating experience in a tiny cell that took a psychological toll, but noted that his treatment was better than that of many other detainees. He deliberately smiled for cameras during his public court appearances, he said, as an act of defiance against the Russian government’s fabricated case against him, refusing to let Moscow control the narrative.

    Gershkovich stressed that his relatively mild treatment was not the norm for prisoners in Russia, pointing to the case of Ukrainian journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna, who died in Russian captivity in 2024 at age 27. When her body was returned months later, it showed evidence of torture and organ removal. “Some people… get tortured. They get broken as human beings, deprived of food, of hot water for showers, told that they’re never going to see their families again,” he said. “I was treated completely differently.”

    As Gershkovich predicted, his detention ended in a prisoner swap 16 months after his arrest, when he was sentenced to 16 years in prison then immediately released in exchange for Vadim Krasikov, a Russian assassin serving a life sentence in Germany for a targeted killing. Gershkovich noted that Moscow achieved its goal in the exchange without facing additional sanctions, calling the Russian plan strategically cynical but effective.

    Gershkovich learned of the impending swap three weeks before it was finalized, a period he described as excruciating, with each day dragging on endlessly. When his release finally came on August 1, 2024, he said it was a moment of pure joy, but in the weeks and months that followed, he faced the difficult challenge of readjusting to normal life. He experienced sleep issues, panic attacks in crowded spaces, and unexplained outbursts of anger as he processed the trauma of his detention. He has since worked with PTSD specialists and found that writing a book about his experience has helped him cope.

    Today, Gershkovich is based in Berlin, and he and the Wall Street Journal have always maintained that the espionage charges against him were entirely fabricated. While he has deep personal ties to Russia — his parents emigrated from the Soviet Union to the U.S. in the 1970s, he speaks Russian fluently, and he built a life and friendships there over seven years — he says he does not know if he will ever be able to return. “I would hope to get back one day, but I guess we’ll have to see what comes after [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” he said. “And it’s not completely clear that the next government will be any better.”

  • Malaysia begins controversial repatriation of asylum seekers to Myanmar

    Malaysia begins controversial repatriation of asylum seekers to Myanmar

    In a move that has sparked global condemnation from human rights advocates, Malaysia has begun the large-scale repatriation of roughly 5,000 Myanmar asylum seekers, including members of the persecuted Rohingya minority, under a controversial agreement struck with Myanmar’s military junta led by Min Aung Hlaing. Three Myanmar navy vessels are set to depart Malaysian ports on the day of this report, carrying the first group of 1,476 returnees back to conflict-ravaged Myanmar.

    This repatriation marks a dramatic reversal of long-held policy by the administration of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who once positioned himself as a vocal defender of human rights and a leading regional critic of Myanmar’s ruling military regime. For years, Malaysia under Anwar refused to recognize Min Aung Hlaing’s government and emerged as one of Southeast Asia’s strongest advocates for a negotiated end to Myanmar’s brutal ongoing civil war. Anwar has framed the current repatriation effort as a voluntary process, but has blocked access for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to meet with or screen the asylum seekers, all of whom have been held in Malaysian immigration detention centers for months.

    Rohingya, a stateless Muslim minority, have been systematically displaced from Myanmar for decades, stripped of their citizenship by the Myanmar government and targeted in widespread military campaigns of ethnic cleansing. Following the 2017 Myanmar military crackdown that pushed more than 750,000 Rohingya across the border into Bangladesh, thousands more risked dangerous sea voyages to seek refuge and work in Malaysia. Today, an estimated 200,000 Rohingya reside in Malaysia, most working low-wage manual labor jobs and living in informal communities. For years, despite occasional efforts to block new arrivals, Malaysia tolerated the existing Rohingya population, with broad public sympathy for the displaced minority among Malaysian Muslims.

    That public sentiment began to shift dramatically in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit Malaysia’s lower-income households particularly hard. Economic strain fueled rising anti-immigrant resentment, and false accusations against Rohingya migrants spread rapidly across social media, leading successive Malaysian governments to tighten restrictions on refugee communities. The trend accelerated in 2026, when a viral false social media campaign claimed Rohingya leaders were demanding land and citizenship after a minor dispute over post-Eid al-Adha waste disposal. A subsequent petition calling for the expulsion of all Rohingya from Malaysia collected more than 400,000 signatures before it was removed from Change.org.

    Anwar, who has seen his public approval ratings plummet sharply since taking office in 2022, says he has little choice but to act on growing public hostility. In a recent podcast interview, he acknowledged that Rohingya should be treated humanely, noting “We can arrest them, but do not beat, intimidate or humiliate them” — a statement that contradicts widespread allegations of abuse against detained refugees by Malaysian immigration officials. Even so, Anwar has insisted that the large Rohingya population has become a burden on the country, saying “They have clearly become a burden: a security burden, an economic burden and a source of hostility among the people.”

    Political analysts warn the shift is driven primarily by domestic political pressure, not humanitarian or economic reality. Anwar took office in 2022 at the head of a fragile, uneasy coalition with his long-time political rivals, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the ethnic Malay party that held a monopoly on Malaysian power for more than 60 years. The country has faced persistent political instability since the 2018 historic election that first ousted UMNO, leading to repeated turnovers of coalition governments. Anwar’s coalition has lost multiple local seats in recent elections, and he is required to call a general election by early 2028.

    “He is in a corner, at his weakest point,” explained Tricia Yeoh, Director of the Asian Institute for Policy and Engagement at the University of Nottingham Malaysia. “He has been forced to make concessions to his UMNO partners… There have been several corruption scandals, and his own party is divided. And after four years of telling voters this is what is required to maintain his fragile coalition, they are no longer willing to go along with that narrative.”

    Yeoh noted that UMNO has leaned into long-standing racial politics that frame ethnic Malays, who make up a majority of the electorate, as needing special state protection — a narrative that stokes fear of outsiders and claims that immigrants take local jobs and drain public resources. Many of Anwar’s long-time supporters, who once saw him as a champion of liberal democratic values, have accused him of betraying his core principles. Latheefa Koya, former head of the Malaysian Anti Corruption Commission, called Anwar’s decision “disgraceful, amoral, and shames the nation in the eyes of the international community.”

    Human rights groups have universally condemned the repatriation, warning that all returnees face extreme danger in Myanmar. Nearly all of Rakhine State, the only region where Rohingya are legally permitted to reside, is currently controlled by the insurgent Arakan Army, and the Myanmar military has carried out sustained air bombardments across the region. Just one day before the first repatriation departed, two Myanmar air force bombs hit a market in Kyauktaw, killing 49 people. The only major population center still accessible to the junta, Rakhine’s capital Sittwe, is under siege and completely isolated, with Rohingya confined to overcrowded, under-resourced camps facing severe shortages of food and medicine. Rights groups also warn that working-age Rohingya men face high risk of forced conscription into the Myanmar military to fight in the country’s civil war.

    Neither the Malaysian nor Myanmar governments have offered any public explanation for how they plan to address these massive humanitarian obstacles, or how the repatriation aligns with international humanitarian standards. For Rohingya advocates, the repatriation violates the core principle of voluntary, safe return that underpins global refugee protection norms. “We all dream of being able to return home one day,” said Nur Sadek, a Rohingya refugee rights advocate, “but we want to return because it is safe and because we choose to — not because we are forced. For me, the most important thing is that Rohingya and other refugees affected by this decision are listened to and treated with dignity.”

  • Migrants using longer, more dangerous routes across Channel

    Migrants using longer, more dangerous routes across Channel

    As European authorities ramp up security along France’s most well-trodden migrant crossing routes near Calais and Dunkirk, human smuggling networks are adapting by shifting launch points hundreds of kilometers south and west, extending dangerous Channel voyages and raising new safety concerns for migrants attempting the crossing. This shift comes even as overall numbers of successful crossings have dropped sharply year-over-year, according to official data from French and UK governments.

    French local authorities report a dramatic uptick in crossing attempts originating far from the traditional northern launch zones. This year alone, 58 attempts have been recorded in Seine-Maritime, a coastal department in Normandy that borders the English Channel nearly 80 miles south of Calais. That figure is already nearly double the 30 attempts recorded across all of 2025, when crossings from Normandy remained extremely rare.

    One recent attempt underscores the growing risk of these longer routes: a small vessel that departed Normandy last week spent more than 30 hours adrift at sea before UK Border Force intercepted the craft and escorted it to the Port of Dover. Earlier this month, another boat launched near Cherbourg was intercepted by lifeboats off the Isle of Wight, hundreds of kilometers from the usual arrival points along the Kent coast.

    Audrey Baconnais-Rosez, the senior local government representative for Seine-Maritime, confirmed the geographic expansion of smuggling activity in an interview. “The number of attempts to cross the Channel has increased in number and it is getting further and further from the north of France,” she said. In response to the shift, local law enforcement has boosted coastal patrols across a 100-kilometer stretch of Normandy coastline running from Dieppe to the outskirts of Le Havre. Currently, 50 gendarmes are deployed along the coast, with an additional 20 plainclothes and uniformed police officers operating in Dieppe and surrounding communities. Baconnais-Rosez added that authorities have managed to intercept roughly half of all attempted crossings from the region, and are still cracking down on a smaller smuggling stream that hides migrants on commercial ferries bound for Newhaven in East Sussex, with intercepted smugglers facing prosecution.

    Migration experts say the shift to longer, riskier routes is a direct response to enhanced security at traditional crossing points near Calais and Dunkirk. Dr. Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, explained that the new launch sites are far from optimal for smuggling networks, but have become necessary as police block access to the northern beaches. “It’s not at all optimal for these boats to set off so far away from their intended destination,” he said. “Some of these journeys would not be 20 miles but 50 miles or even more, which substantially increases the danger on board the boats.”

    Marine safety analysts echo that warning, noting that extended time at sea dramatically elevates the risk of fatal incidents. David McFarlane, a veteran marine safety consultant, explained that longer voyages increase the chance of encountering sudden, dangerous weather shifts that are common in the English Channel. “If a low pressure system is developing over the Atlantic, it can mean that in advance of the winds picking up, a swell will start to increase, with the increased likelihood of sea sickness for some, which can lead to dehydration,” he said. Winds can rise rapidly in the Channel, pushing wave heights as high as 11 feet, enough to swamp small, overloaded craft and put migrants at severe risk of drowning or hypothermia.

    Official 2026 crossing data confirms the overall downward trend in arrivals: so far this year, 19,135 people have successfully completed the crossing, compared to 32,188 during the same period in 2025. Despite this drop, the shift to new routes has sparked new political pressure on the UK government, particularly after two migrant vessels reached the Kent coast last week without being intercepted. That same week, Home Office data recorded 781 migrant arrivals across 10 small boats, marking the highest single-day total for 2026.

    Tony Smith, the former director general of UK Border Force, warned that smuggling networks will continue to adapt to security changes as long as demand for irregular crossings remains. “They’re not going to give up as long as the business model continues to exist and there’s a market to bring migrants over from France,” he said. “Every successful landing is a message to the next migrant waiting on a French beach that it’s worth a try.”

    In response to the evolving situation, the UK Home Office said bilateral cooperation with French authorities has already delivered major results. Since the last UK election, joint operations have prevented more than 48,000 crossing attempts and seized more than 1,100 boats and engines. “Our efforts are having an impact, with the number of small boat crossings down significantly this year and the lowest number recorded for the month of July since 2020,” a Home Office spokesperson said. To address the shift to western French coasts, the UK has signed a new payment-by-results agreement with France that will increase patrol personnel on French beaches by 40%, including a dedicated surge unit of 45 additional officers focused on western coastal areas.

  • Three Egyptian security officials convicted of kidnapping Italian student

    Three Egyptian security officials convicted of kidnapping Italian student

    Nearly a decade after the brutal death of 28-year-old Italian researcher Giulio Regeni sent shockwaves across the international community, an Italian court has handed down a long-awaited verdict in a case that has strained bilateral relations for years. On Monday, a Rome court convicted three members of Egypt’s security forces of aggravated kidnapping, sentencing each to 10 years in prison. The defendants were tried in absentia and have consistently denied all charges against them, while a fourth Egyptian official standing trial in the same case was acquitted.

    Regeni, a Cambridge University PhD candidate, disappeared in January 2016 while conducting field research on Egypt’s independent trade unions, a politically sensitive topic in the country. Just days after he went missing, his extensively tortured, mutilated body was discovered in a ditch on the outskirts of Cairo. An official autopsy later confirmed he had endured prolonged abuse, including repeated beatings with fists, kicks, sticks and clubs, and ultimately died from a broken neck. In a 2018 testimony before the Italian parliament, Regeni’s mother recalled that his body was so disfigured she could only identify him by the tip of his nose.

    From the outset of the investigation, Italian and Egyptian authorities reached starkly opposing conclusions about the circumstances of Regeni’s death. Egyptian officials have repeatedly denied any state involvement in the researcher’s abduction and killing, instead attributing his death to a range of alternative causes including a run-in with criminal gangs, a fatal car accident, botched drug deal, or failed robbery. But Rome-based prosecutors, who ultimately launched their own independent prosecution after the joint investigation collapsed, concluded that Egypt’s national security agency orchestrated the kidnapping.

    The four defendants in the trial were General Tariq Sabir, Colonel Usham Helmi, Colonel Athar Kamel Mohamed Ibrahim, and Major Magdi Ibrahim Abdelal Sharif. Of the four, only General Sabir was acquitted, while the three colonels and major received their conviction and sentence on Monday.

    The road to this verdict has stretched on for years. The trial was initially scheduled to begin in 2021, but was delayed after prosecutors raised concerns that they had not been able to locate the defendants to formally serve charges. It was only in September 2023 that Italy’s Constitutional Court ruled the trial could proceed, clearing the final legal hurdle for the case to move forward.

    As the guilty verdict was read out in the Rome courtroom, Regeni’s family members and their supporters, many wearing the yellow t-shirts and badges that have become the symbol of their 10-year campaign for justice, stood in silence. Legal representatives for the family and Rome’s chief prosecutor both welcomed the outcome, framing the conviction as a landmark victory against impunity for abuses of power.

    “From today, people around the world can feel safer,” said Alessandra Ballerini, the lead lawyer for the Regeni family. “Impunity can be defeated and democracies can place limits on arbitrary power.”

    While extradition of the three convicted men to Italy to serve their sentences is widely considered unlikely, legal analysts and diplomatic observers note the conviction is almost certain to reignite long-simmering diplomatic tensions between Rome and Cairo, two countries with deep economic and political ties that have repeatedly been tested by the Regeni case over the past decade.

  • Gaza Friendly: the French label turning consumer choices into Palestine solidarity

    Gaza Friendly: the French label turning consumer choices into Palestine solidarity

    Since its launch in June 2025, a distinctive smartphone application with a heart-shaped icon emblazoned with the Palestinian flag has been gaining traction among pro-Palestinian activists and ethically minded consumers in France and beyond. Named Gaza Friendly, the app operates as a certification platform for retail and food service business owners who commit to boycotting goods sourced from Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories and produced by companies that back Israel’s illegal settlement expansion.

    Today, the platform’s app and companion website feature a growing directory of 80 certified businesses across France, spanning a wide range of food and beverage-focused operations including butcher shops, restaurants, bakeries, catering services, tea rooms, and food distributors. The directory is updated on a regular basis, and the app includes a built-in interactive map that lets consumers quickly locate certified merchants within their local area. To date, the app has been downloaded more than 500 times, built from the ground up by Pierre-Amael Noailly Charny, a Tunisian-origin pediatrician based in Lyon, alongside a small circle of like-minded friends.

    In an interview with Middle East Eye, Noailly Charny explained that the initiative gives participating shopkeepers a tangible way to formalize their support for the Palestinian cause. “This label gives people outraged by the genocide in Gaza the possibility to turn their consumption into a lever for justice and solidarity,” he said. The entire project draws core inspiration from the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement, the global campaign launched in 2005 by Palestinian civil society to pressure institutions and individual consumers to reject products linked to Israeli settlements, which are widely recognized as illegal under international law. “Boycott works because refusing certain products cuts off resources from the oppression,” the initiative states on its official website, with a long-term goal of building a large, interconnected network of certified merchants to amplify the reach and visibility of the global boycott campaign.

    To earn Gaza Friendly certification, merchants are required to adhere to a clear three-point charter: they must remove all Coca-Cola Company beverages, all PepsiCo beverages, and all fresh produce imported from Israeli settlements from their inventory. Noailly Charny notes that targeting Coca-Cola and PepsiCo is a deliberate, peaceful advocacy strategy with powerful symbolic weight, citing well-documented evidence of the companies’ operational ties to the illegal occupation of Palestinian territories. In 2025, BDS publicly revealed that Coca-Cola maintains a regional distribution center and temperature-controlled storage facilities in the Atarot settlement located in the occupied West Bank, while PepsiCo has faced longstanding criticism for its investments and subsidiary operations tied to Israel.

    Activists argue that even though PepsiCo publicly maintains it does not provide political or military support to Israel, the company’s ownership of prominent Israeli brands including SodaStream and Sabra, alongside its ongoing commercial operations within the country, constitutes indirect backing for the Israeli state. For its part, Coca-Cola has stated that it does not formally endorse any nation, government, or official policy, but has not directly addressed the specific claims regarding its Atarot facility. Both multinational corporations declined to provide official comment to Middle East Eye for this report.

    Noailly Charny emphasized that long before the Gaza Friendly app existed, many independent merchants across France had already chosen independently to stop carrying Coca-Cola and Pepsi products in solidarity. “We therefore chose to put them in the spotlight and list them to set an example and encourage others to join,” he explained.

    One of the most recent additions to the certified directory is Aid Boucherie Halal, located in Creteil, a suburb just outside of Paris. The business was added to the Gaza Friendly roster on September 4, after owner Akli learned of the initiative through a personal contact. “The idea appealed to me, especially since some customers had already blamed me for selling Coca-Cola. Personally, I didn’t know the company had interests in Israel,” Akli told reporters. Akli added that he has long supported Palestinian rights but lacked a clear public way to demonstrate that commitment until he joined Gaza Friendly. “Now I don’t sell Coca-Cola or Pepsi, and my business is doing just as well – actually, even better,” he said, noting that he has seen a small but steady uptick in customers since joining the certification program.

    Beyond maintaining the directory of certified businesses, Gaza Friendly also provides participating merchants with branded visual materials including posters and window stickers to boost public visibility of their commitment. It also curates a non-exhaustive list of alternative consumer products, with a heavy focus on beverage brands, that can replace the products targeted by the boycott.

    Many of these alternative brands were specifically created to support Palestinian humanitarian efforts. One example is Pales Drinks, a Belgian soda brand founded in 2024 by young entrepreneur Abdelhakim Tarnach, which donates 10 percent of all its annual profits to humanitarian action in Gaza and the occupied Palestinian territories. That same year also saw the launch of Palestine Cola, a soft drink produced by Safad Food AB, a company founded by Palestinian-origin entrepreneurs based in Malmo, Sweden. For Palestine Cola, a portion of every sale goes directly to funding emergency humanitarian projects in Palestine, including providing clothing, temporary shelter, and food assistance to displaced communities. In France, Palestine Cola is primarily distributed by Jebalia, an online retailer focused on promoting ethical, solidarity-centered alternative consumption. Every purchase through Jebalia is framed on the company’s Instagram page as an act of tangible support for Palestinian humanitarian causes, and Jebalia itself has been listed as a Gaza Friendly-certified business since July 2025. Jebalia owner Sofiane Slimani says he fully embraces his public commitment to Palestinian solidarity. “We’ve reached a point where boycotting products linked to Israeli settlement activity is no longer enough. We need to offer alternatives,” he told Middle East Eye. Jebalia reports that it sold more than 100,000 cans of solidarity soda in 2025, its first year of operation. In addition to marketing through social media, the company attends high-profile public events to expand its reach, including the 2025 Annual Gathering of Muslims of France held in Le Bourget last April, and regularly partners with other advocacy-focused businesses to sell its products at pro-Palestinian solidarity events such as the Salam Cup charity football tournament held earlier this year in Bobigny, near Paris. During that tournament, Jebalia’s products were sold by Inda Coffee, a Paris-based coffee shop and matcha bar that regularly fundraises for Gaza aid initiatives. Though Inda Coffee participates in the boycott campaign, it has not yet sought Gaza Friendly certification. According to Noailly Charny, widespread awareness of the label remains low among French merchants, which is why expanding public outreach is a top priority for the organization. “We’re trying to reach influencers who work in the food sector,” the pediatrician said. Already, Lyon-based food content creator AmarFood, who focuses on highlighting halal, alcohol-free dining across Lyon and the Paris region, regularly promotes the Gaza Friendly initiative in his social media videos. More recently, another independent videographer published a lengthy breakdown of the app’s mission and functionality to help spread the word to a wider audience.

    Looking ahead, the Gaza Friendly team has ambitious plans for global expansion beyond its French origins. Currently, merchants from roughly 15 different countries around the world have already joined the certification network, and organizers note that no comparable platform currently exists anywhere else globally to centralize this kind of consumer boycott action for Palestinian solidarity.

  • Red Sea crisis: What missiles and drones do the Houthis have?

    Red Sea crisis: What missiles and drones do the Houthis have?

    Yemen’s long-running civil war has entered a dangerous new phase following a sweeping Houthi offensive that has sent shockwaves through global energy markets and raised urgent questions about the militia’s growing military clout. What was once widely dismissed as an irregular ragtag fighting force has evolved dramatically over two decades into a well-armed militia capable of projecting power across the Middle East and disrupting one of the world’s busiest maritime trade chokepoints.

    Originally founded in 1994 by Zaydi Shia cleric Hussein al-Houthi under the official name Ansar Allah (Helpers of God), the movement emerged to demand greater political autonomy for Yemen’s densely populated northern region. Following Hussein al-Houthi’s death, leadership passed to his brother Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, who led a series of insurgencies against former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh throughout the 2000s. The group seized Yemen’s capital Sanaa and most of the country’s northwest between 2014 and 2016, expanding its fighting ranks from an estimated 30,000 fighters in 2015 to roughly 350,000 by 2024, according to the most widely cited projections.

    Since 2023, the Houthis have launched more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, framing the operations as a response to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Most targeted ships are linked to Israel or Saudi Arabia, whose 2022 airstrike on Sanaa International Airport collapsed a UN-brokered informal ceasefire that had left the Houthis in control of 30% of Yemen’s territory, home to 80% of the country’s population, under a continuing Saudi-led blockade. Following the end of the ceasefire, the Houthis formally declared a maritime blockade and resumed attacks on shipping in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait, the 26-kilometer-wide chokepoint that connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and Suez Canal, a critical route for 12% of global maritime trade and roughly 30% of global oil shipments.

    While the Houthis operate as an independent actor, multiple international analysts and UN reports confirm the group has received substantial military support from Iran, which counts the Houthis as a core member of its regional Axis of Resistance network alongside Hamas and Hezbollah. Iranian support was historically overseen by Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, up until his 2020 assassination in a U.S. drone strike. More recently, Russia has also cultivated ties with the militia: Middle East Eye revealed in August 2024 that Moscow has provided targeting intelligence and deployed military intelligence officers to Yemen, and has repeatedly used its UN Security Council veto to block proposed arms embargoes on the group. Even commercial open-source tools have aided the Houthis’ operations: the group uses freely available maritime traffic data from public intelligence platforms to locate target vessels, and AI firm Anthropic confirmed in September 2024 that the militia has used its Claude large language model to develop missile navigation systems.

    Contrary to early assessments of the group as an undisciplined militia, the Houthis now maintain a diverse, increasingly advanced arsenal that ranges from small arms to medium-range ballistic missiles capable of striking targets 2,000 kilometers away. The militia has already used these missiles to hit targets in northern Israel, including Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, putting most of the Middle East within striking range. Analysts widely agree that the Houthis lack the domestic industrial capacity to produce these complex systems indigenously, pointing to direct supply and component provision from Iran. The group claims to possess the Palestine-2, a hypersonic precision-guided missile with a 2,150-kilometer range that can travel at Mach 5, but independent analysts have cast doubt on these assertions, noting that only a handful of major world powers currently operate operational hypersonic weapons, none matching the claimed specifications. The militia also fields the Hatem-2, a documented variant of Iran’s advanced Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile with a 1,450-kilometer range and 500-kilogram warhead.

    Alongside longer-range systems, the Houthis have repurposed older weapons seized from retreating pro-government forces, including decades-old Soviet-era air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles converted into anti-ship ballistic missiles. They have also deployed anti-ship cruise missiles (based on Iran’s Quds series, with a range of at least 800 kilometers) and even small anti-tank missiles to strike ships in the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait, with analysts noting that in many cases components are shipped from Iran as ready-to-assemble kits for final construction inside Yemen.

    Traditional heavy armour once formed a core part of the Houthi ground force, but most Soviet-era tanks and armoured vehicles inherited from the Yemeni military after the 2014 seizure of Sanaa have been destroyed by Saudi-led coalition airstrikes. This has pushed the group to rely heavily on drones for offensive operations: models including the Jaffa and Samad can reach targets over 2,000 kilometers away and have been repeatedly used to strike Israel, though most are intercepted by Israeli air defences such as Iron Dome. Recent evidence also suggests the Houthis are developing domestically assembled hydrogen-powered drones that can carry larger payloads over longer distances, with core components still imported from Iran. For maritime targeting, drones serve as a low-cost political tool rather than a decisive weapon, analysts note: while they rarely sink large commercial vessels, they create enough risk to push up insurance costs and divert trade routes, achieving the Houthis’ goal of disrupting global shipping. As one of the world’s most heavily armed societies, Yemen also has an abundant supply of small arms for Houthi infantry: many men in Houthi-controlled areas carry unregistered firearms, with large stockpiles of Iranian-supplied machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, and even German-made G3 rifles seized from pro-government forces during battlefield victories.

    The Houthis remain severely limited in traditional air and naval capabilities. Intelligence assessments suggest the militia only possesses one fighter jet, a 1970s-vintage U.S.-built Northrop F-5 seized from pro-government forces that has not been publicly sighted in more than two years and is likely destroyed. The group does operate a small number of aging Soviet-era helicopters, which it used during the high-profile November 2023 hijacking of the container vessel Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea. Without a traditional navy, the Houthis have built a fleet of uncrewed explosive drone boats, most purpose-built in Yemen using commercially available boat engines imported from China, Japan, and Europe with little regulatory restriction. This creates a unique challenge for global arms control, analysts note: restricting components would harm Yemen’s civilian fishing industry, which relies on the same parts.

    The unknown size of the Houthi arsenal remains one of the biggest sources of regional uncertainty. “We really know next to nothing about the numbers of each missile system that they have, until they fire them,” explained Wolf-Christian Paes, a global security consultant and senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Despite this uncertainty, analysts agree that foreign backing, particularly from Iran, has been transformative for the Houthi movement. “Iranian support has been crucial to the buildup of Houthi military capabilities,” said Fabian Hinz, senior analyst at Conflict Armament Research (CAR). “Tehran has managed to secure a seemingly steady flow of technology to the Houthis and has proven willing to share even some of its most advanced capabilities, such as the Kheibar Shekan.”

    As Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping continue, the rapid expansion of the group’s military footprint has escalated the Yemeni civil war and created sustained disruption for global energy and trade markets, cementing the militia’s role as a major disruptive force in Middle East security.

  • Israel chokes West Bank movement amid Jewish holiday

    Israel chokes West Bank movement amid Jewish holiday

    As the Jewish festival of Sukkot got underway on September 25, Israeli military forces have dramatically ramped up movement restrictions on Palestinian residents across the occupied West Bank, creating widespread disruption to daily routines and putting critical emergency medical services at severe risk. The enhanced security measures, which include a full territory-wide closure that will remain in effect until the holiday concludes on October 3, have seen Israeli troops block access to dozens of Palestinian towns and villages using iron barriers and large earth mounds, even on less-traveled secondary routes that many local residents rely on for daily travel.

    Across the West Bank, existing permanent checkpoints have also seen sharply tightened security protocols, with some of the busiest crossing points — including the Atara and Ein Siniya checkpoints north of Ramallah, and the Jaba’ checkpoint northeast of Jerusalem — becoming major bottlenecks that leave Palestinians waiting for multiple hours to cross, particularly during morning and evening peak travel periods. These delays ripple across daily life: thousands of Palestinians who commute between communities for work, school, and family visits now face journeys that stretch from minutes to multiple hours, upending routine plans and leaving many stranded.

    For Attaf Abu Aliya, a taxi driver based in the village of al-Mughayyir, located east of Ramallah, the new restrictions have turned his daily work into a prolonged ordeal. What would normally be a 30-minute drive from al-Mughayyir to the city of Ramallah now takes several hours to complete, with daily waits of four hours or more becoming routine. In an interview with Middle East Eye, Abu Aliya described how Israeli soldiers often hold up traffic for hours without conducting searches or allowing passage, an act he says is designed solely to make life harder for local Palestinians. “Students miss university classes, and everyone’s affairs are disrupted, all because of the whim of a single soldier,” he said. The situation grows even more volatile when Israeli settlers take control of checkpoints, he added: on multiple occasions, settlers have blocked traffic, smashed vehicle windows, and sprayed pepper spray on waiting passengers. Abu Aliya himself has been subjected to invasive searches and physical assault by soldiers during his waits at the checkpoint. “Our situation is truly tragic. That is the most accurate description of the lockdown and the tightened restrictions we are facing,” he said.

    New data published on September 25 by the Palestinian Commission Against the Wall and Settlements underscores the scope of movement restrictions across the West Bank. As of this month, the organization counted 942 active checkpoints, closure points, and movement obstacles scattered across the territory. That total includes 824 permanent fixed checkpoints and closure locations, plus an additional 118 ad-hoc barriers such as earth mounds, dug trenches, and roadblocks that block access to community entrances. The United Nations has confirmed that restrictions have expanded beyond existing infrastructure in recent months, with new barriers erected regularly that further split apart connected Palestinian communities.

    Beyond disrupting work and school, the tightened movement controls have created a life-threatening crisis for Palestinian emergency medical services, which require unimpeded access to patients across the West Bank. With most village and town entrances blocked and checkpoints creating hours-long backlogs, paramedic and ambulance teams face growing barriers to reaching time-sensitive emergencies and transporting critically ill patients to hospital care. Ahmed Jibril, director of the Emergency Medical Services Department at the Palestinian Red Crescent Society, told Middle East Eye that ambulances receive no priority or special exemption from the restrictions, and are often subjected to even more rigorous inspection protocols than civilian vehicles.

    Just last week, Jibril said, an ambulance crew was blocked from reaching an elderly woman experiencing a medical emergency near Salfit by closed checkpoints and locked iron gates. By the time the crew was able to access the area via an alternate route, the woman had died. “Checkpoints might open after long waits, but the greater challenge lies in the iron gates, which are sometimes permanently closed,” Jibril explained. “We are forced to find rough, alternative routes, which affects how quickly paramedics arrive and, consequently, the lives of thousands of patients.” Jibril also added that Israeli soldiers regularly mistreat medical staff at checkpoints: in many cases, soldiers enter ambulances under the pretense of checking a patient’s condition, force all medical workers out of the vehicle, and confiscate the ambulance keys, causing further dangerous delays.

    The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has long documented the widespread harm caused by these Israeli movement restrictions. The organization confirms that the controls systematically block Palestinian access to essential healthcare, education, employment, agricultural land, and other basic public services. Extended full closures like the one in place for Sukkot not only lengthen commute times and delay the delivery of humanitarian aid, but can also leave entire Palestinian communities isolated from critical services for days at a time.

  • Israel shuts Palestinian shops to facilitate Jewish prayers in Jerusalem’s Old City

    Israel shuts Palestinian shops to facilitate Jewish prayers in Jerusalem’s Old City

    Tensions have flared in occupied East Jerusalem’s Old City after Israeli security forces ordered more than 50 Palestinian-owned businesses to close, sealed off a key access gate to the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, and facilitated large incursions by ultranationalist Israelis into the sacred site during the Jewish Sukkot holiday.

    The commercial shutdown, which went into effect Sunday morning on the third day of the week-long holiday, will remain in force through October 2. All affected shops are located in the Old City’s Muslim Quarter, along the route leading to Bab al-Qattanin — one of the primary entry points to Al-Aqsa used by Palestinian worshippers. In addition to closing local businesses, Israeli authorities ordered Palestinian residents of the area to stay indoors and fully blocked the gate to the mosque compound ahead of a mass gathering of Israeli nationals for holiday rituals Sunday night.

    Local Palestinian authorities condemned the sweeping restrictions as part of a dangerous, repeated pattern of displacement and erasure of Palestinian presence in the Old City. “The situation in Jerusalem’s markets during the holidays has become a recurring and worrying pattern: streets are closed, residents’ movement is restricted, and access to the Old City is affected by security measures,” the Jerusalem Governorate said in a statement. The administration added that this sustained Israeli policy risks gradually stripping the Old City of its distinct Palestinian commercial and cultural identity, while pushing generations-old family businesses owned by local Palestinians to the brink of collapse.

    Parallel to the shop closures, hundreds of ultranationalist Israeli settlers and far-right political figures stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound over two days to perform unauthorized Jewish religious rituals, in direct violation of long-standing status quo agreements. According to official counts from the Jerusalem Governorate, roughly 1,500 people entered the site Sunday, with an additional 1,200 joining incursions Monday. All participants were provided with armed security protection by Israeli forces, where they held collective prayers, danced, chanted religious songs, and conducted holiday ceremonies within the complex.

    High-profile far-right Israeli figures joined the incursions to signal their government’s claim over the site. On Sunday, Likud Party Knesset member Amit Halevi took part in the breach, and a group of nationalist rabbis entered the mosque courtyards alongside dozens of settlers to lead hymns. On Monday, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir joined the incursion, releasing a public video declaring “Today, we are the ones in charge on the Temple Mount” — using the Israeli name for the Al-Aqsa compound. He also added inflammatory rhetoric targeting Palestinian detainees, stating “We have turned the lives of their terrorists into hell.”

    The Jerusalem Governorate issued a formal condemnation of Ben Gvir’s incursion and the holding of Jewish prayers within the Al-Aqsa compound, noting that the actions violate the internationally recognized historical and legal status quo governing the site and represent a deliberate attempt to impose a new unilateral religious reality.

    The status quo is a decades-old globally accepted agreement that regulates access and administration of the 144-dunam (14.4-hectare) Al-Aqsa compound. Under the terms of the arrangement, the entire site is formally recognized as an exclusively Islamic holy site, with full responsibility for access, prayer scheduling, maintenance, and archaeological work falling to the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, the Islamic religious trust that has managed the mosque for generations.

    However, since Israel occupied East Jerusalem in 1967, successive Israeli governments have systematically sidelined the Waqf and eroded the terms of the status quo. One of the most persistent breaches has been the authorization of near-daily incursions by Israeli nationalists and Jewish visitors, as well as allowing unauthorized Jewish prayer at the site, a practice that has accelerated in recent years under the current far-right Israeli government.

  • Shobeiri Zanjani: The quiet ayatollah who bridged Iran’s political divide

    Shobeiri Zanjani: The quiet ayatollah who bridged Iran’s political divide

    On September 20, one of the most uniquely positioned religious figures in modern Iranian history, Grand Ayatollah Mousa Shobeiri Zanjani, passed away at the age of 98, leaving behind a legacy of rare political independence that transcended the deep ideological divides shaping the Islamic Republic’s politics.

    Shobeiri Zanjani carved out an unparalleled role in Iran’s clerical ecosystem: a senior religious scholar who intentionally held himself apart from formal state political power, yet commanded respect and influence that stretched across every faction of the country’s political and religious landscape. His student body included figures from opposite ends of Iran’s political spectrum: former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, and according to a senior source at the influential Qom Seminary, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran’s current supreme leader Ali Khamenei. For generations, politicians and clerics from competing factions turned to Shobeiri for credibility and mediation precisely because his moral and religious authority was never tied to partisan or state interests.

    That deliberate political detachment made him a critical go-between at moments when Iran’s religious and state institutions collided. In the 1990s, the Qom Society of Seminary Scholars named Shobeiri one of just seven senior clerics qualified to serve as a marja – the highest rank of Shia religious authority, whose rulings on Islamic law are followed by believers around the world.

    Shobeiri belonged to a longstanding strand of Iranian traditional clerical thought that holds senior religious leaders should not seek direct involvement in political office or state power. This camp, which also includes another highly respected Qom-based cleric Ayatollah Vahid Khorasani, prioritizes three core missions: protecting the institutional independence of Iran’s seminaries from state interference, preserving the centuries-old marjaʿiyyah system of independent religious authority, and addressing religious and social issues rather than holding or exercising formal political power.

    Throughout his career, Shobeiri openly argued that excessive political entanglement by clerics erodes their religious standing and weakens public faith in Islam. In a 2017 gathering of clerics and scholars, he laid out his core philosophy clearly: “Some clerics believe that by becoming more involved in political matters, they can better preserve the standing of the clergy or the position of the mosque. We, however, believe that excessive politicisation, along with the emergence of differences of opinion – which are inevitable – can harm the standing of the clergy and the mosque and lead to a weakening of religious faith.”

    He also stressed that clerics without specialized expertise in governance should avoid overstepping into political debate. “Those who do not have expertise in this field would be better off refraining from getting too deeply involved in political matters,” he said. “If someone has expertise, there is no problem with them expressing views on broader issues. But when someone who has no expertise in political science speaks without studying the subject, it creates problems.”

    Even as he rejected direct political power, Shobeiri emphasized that religious leaders have a stake in the health of the Islamic Republic and the well-being of the Iranian people. “The Islamic Republic was established in the name of religion and is associated with religion, and preserving it is a religious duty. However, we must consider what contributes most to the survival of the government,” he noted at the same 2017 meeting. “The satisfaction of the people is, first and foremost, one of the things that can contribute to the survival of a government, and we must all work toward this.”

    Shobeiri’s reputation for scholarly rigor in Islamic fiqh (jurisprudence) and unwavering political independence drew students from across Iran’s ideological divides to his Qom lectures. In the late 1960s, Khatami, who would later lead Iran’s reformist movement, studied advanced jurisprudence under Shobeiri. The ayatollah once famously praised his young student in correspondence, writing: “Just as Christopher Columbus discovered the American continent, I too discovered Seyyed Mohammad Khatami in the seminary.” Mohammad Reza Khatami, the former president’s brother, later described the bond between the two as far more than teacher and student – it was a decades-long spiritual and personal friendship.

    According to the Qom Seminary source who spoke to Middle East Eye, two of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s sons, Mostafa and Mojtaba, also attended Shobeiri’s classes. Khamenei himself once told Shobeiri: “When my sons decided to become seminary students, I did not tell them to do so; they chose it themselves, and of course I was happy with their choice. When one of them came to Qom, I did not tell him to attend your classes; he chose your classes himself, and I was also happy with that choice.”

    Shobeiri’s influence as a cross-factional mediator took center stage during the 2009 disputed presidential election, a watershed moment that remains one of the most divisive events in modern Iranian history. After incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, backed by Khamenei, was declared the winner over reformist candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the opposition alleged widespread vote rigging, triggering mass nationwide protests that were met with a harsh state crackdown that saw thousands of demonstrators arrested.

    As tensions boiled over, many Iranians across factions turned to Shobeiri, leveraging his longstanding personal relationship with Khamenei to push for de-escalation. A group of 70 prominent political and academic figures, including Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami, issued an open letter to senior Shia clerics raising alarms about reports of repeated torture of detained protesters and calling on religious leaders to intervene. In response, Shobeiri gathered with two other senior dissident clerics – Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri and former chief justice Ayatollah Mousavi Ardabili – to discuss the unfolding political and religious crisis.

    Years later, prominent religious researcher and dissident Mohsen Kadivar revealed that Shobeiri held private meetings with Supreme Leader Khamenei during the protests in an effort to pressure the state to reduce its use of violence against demonstrators. After the crackdown, Shobeiri repeatedly intervened to secure the release of imprisoned political activists. Kadivar confirmed that Shobeiri once reached out directly to Khamenei’s office to successfully secure the release of Ali Shakouri-Rad, a leading reformist politician close to Mousavi.

    When Khamenei ordered Mousavi and Karroubi placed under house arrest in 2011, the ayatollah made multiple personal attempts to persuade the supreme leader to reverse the decision, though these efforts ultimately failed. This was not the first time Shobeiri pushed back against state political actions: Kadivar also confirmed that Shobeiri met with Khamenei at least twice before 2009 to call for the lifting of house arrest imposed on Montazeri, one of the most prominent critics of Khamenei’s rule.

    Shobeiri’s commitment to cross-factional engagement drew public criticism from hardline conservative clerics in 2018, after photos emerged of him meeting with Khatami, former interior minister Abdollah Nouri, and a group of other leading reformist figures. Senior conservative cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi sent a sharply worded public letter to Shobeiri, urging him to uphold the dignity of his clerical position and show proper respect for the ruling Islamic system. Yazdi chastised Shobeiri for failing to respond to two previous private letters, writing that “your position and standing are grounded in respect for the Islamic system in power, the Leader, and the status of religious authority.” He demanded Shobeiri take steps to prevent similar meetings from happening in the future.

    The letter sparked immediate backlash from clerics and public figures across Iran. One senior cleric, Ayatollah Mohammad Andalib Hamadani, resigned from his position on the board of the Society of Seminary Teachers, which Yazdi chaired, in protest of the attack on Shobeiri. Kadivar, speaking out against what he called the threatening tone of Yazdi’s letter, summarized the core of Shobeiri’s independent legacy: “Mousa Shobeiri does not owe his religious authority to the political system or to Mr Khamenei, so that the Leader’s agents can threaten him. His standing and respect are the result of his scholarly precision and practical piety. Yazdi conveyed a message from the Leader: if you make a mistake and act differently from the Leader’s wishes, you will lose the respect due to your scholarship and the status of religious authority, because, from the system’s perspective, the dignity of religious authority means conformity with the wishes of the supreme leader.”

  • Stuck between superpowers: How Australia navigates the China-US rivalry

    Stuck between superpowers: How Australia navigates the China-US rivalry

    The sharp crack of sniper fire cuts through the quiet eucalyptus canopies of outback Queensland near Townsville, a region that has not seen active conflict since World War II. Moments later, missile strikes send plumes of smoke billowing into the sky, the hum of surveillance drones rising above the treeline before being drowned out by the thrum of military helicopters passing overhead. No piece of advanced military hardware is left out of this display, and no expense has been spared. But this is no active war zone – it is one of the largest joint military exercises the Indo-Pacific has seen in recent years, a visible sign of Australia’s shifting strategic posture amid growing great power competition.

    Brigadier Ben McLennan of the Australian Army frames the training as a necessary response to an increasingly unstable global landscape. “War is no longer the distant abstract concept it once was for many Australians,” he explained, noting that even thousands of miles from active conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the nation already feels their ripple effects through spiking fuel costs and soaring inflation. When pressed to name a potential adversary, McLennan remained deliberately vague, only noting that the exercise prepares Australian forces for “the worst type of war – a total war on the scale of the World Wars.”

    This large-scale drill, dubbed Exercise Southern Jackaroo, brings together thousands of troops from Australia, the United States, and Japan to deepen defensive coordination across the Indo-Pacific. The growth in participation underscores just how much Australia’s security alignment has shifted over the last decade: in 2012, just 200 U.S. Marines rotated through northern Australia for annual training. Today, that number has jumped to roughly 2,500. The expansion extends beyond troop numbers, too: key northern Australian bases, including RAAF Tindal in the Northern Territory, have undergone major upgrades to accommodate long-range U.S. B-52 bombers. The most ambitious security partnership, however, remains AUKUS – the trilateral pact between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. that will provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, a landmark agreement that has sharply deepened the nation’s security ties with Washington.

    Australia’s approach stands out among other middle-sized global powers. While nations like Canada have re-evaluated their security commitments amid growing uncertainty over U.S. reliability, Canberra has doubled down on its alignment with Washington. This shift, however, is out of step with shifting public opinion among Australian voters, according to recent polling from the Lowy Institute, an independent Australian think tank. Just 31% of Australians now trust the United States to act responsibly in global affairs, and only 28% extend that trust to China – a stark gap between public sentiment and the government’s current policy trajectory.

    This divergence reflects the central paradox shaping modern Australian foreign policy: while Canberra deepens its security alliance with the U.S. to counter China’s growing military buildup and expanding regional influence in the Pacific, China remains Australia’s largest and most economically critical trading partner. The economic ties between the two nations run deep: China overtook other partners to become Australia’s top export market in the early 2010s, driven by insatiable demand for Australian commodities. The relationship reached its peak in 2015, when the two nations signed a landmark free trade agreement following a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who addressed Australia’s parliament.

    That era of relatively warm bilateral relations collapsed quickly after 2020, when Australia called for an independent international investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Beijing retaliated with steep tariffs on a range of Australian exports, and in 2021, Canberra canceled Victoria’s state-level participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, making Australia the first nation to walk back from the global infrastructure program. Diplomatic frictions deepened amid the detention of Australian citizens in China, including journalist Cheng Lei, who was released in 2023 after more than three years in custody.

    Relations have warmed slightly under current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor government, but frictions remain. Earlier this year, Beijing imposed a 55% tariff on Australian beef imports, despite the terms of the 2015 free trade agreement, a move framed as protection for China’s domestic agricultural sector. Even so, public attitudes toward China have softened in recent years: the 2026 Lowy Institute Poll finds that 61% of Australians now view China primarily as an economic partner rather than a security threat, an 11-point increase from 2025. For the first time, a narrow majority of 51% of respondents say that Australia’s relationship with China is more important than its relationship with the United States. Australians remain wary of Chinese investment in the nation, however, with most preferring investment from Western nations with similar regulatory frameworks and higher levels of established trust.

    Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a veteran China analyst who speaks fluent Mandarin, recently warned that the global order is undergoing “radical changes” driven by China’s growing global influence at a time when the United States continues to debate its own role as a global superpower. Marina Yue Zhang, an associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney, notes that growing numbers of Australians are questioning the reliability of the U.S. as a long-term security ally, particularly amid domestic political upheaval in Washington.

    When Chinese President Xi Jinping met U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing earlier this year, Xi referenced the “Thucydides Trap” – the theory that a rising power challenging an established hegemon will almost inevitably be drawn into conflict. For Australia, sitting directly between the two competing superpowers, this great power rivalry creates an unavoidable dilemma. Washington remains Canberra’s core security partner, even as public trust in the U.S. declines, while Beijing is the foundation of Australia’s economic prosperity. “It’s not an either-or choice for Australia – picking one side and cutting off the other would be directly against the nation’s core interests,” Zhang explained. “It’s getting harder and harder to walk this middle line, but Australia has no other choice but to maintain this delicate balancing act.”