A controversial convicted Israeli-American intelligence operative has sent shockwaves through Middle East geopolitics with a stark warning that Israel could soon be drawn into new armed conflicts with two of its once-cordial regional neighbors, Egypt and Turkey. Jonathan Pollard, who served 30 years in U.S. federal prison for stealing classified American national security documents and passing them to Israel before relocating to the Jewish state in 2015, shared his alarming forecast during a recent podcast interview with Israeli news outlet Arutz Sheva.
In the discussion, Pollard argued that after the current conflict with Iran, Israel must turn its military preparedness toward what he frames as inevitable future confrontations. “I’m not so sure that we will have as easy a time with the Turks as we’ve had with the Iranians,” Pollard told hosts. “We have to be prepared for the next war, which will probably be against Turkey and Egypt. The storm is coming.”
Beyond his war warning, Pollard also cautioned Israeli leadership against permitting the Turkish-backed transitional government in southern Syria to reassert control over territories currently held by Israeli occupation forces. Allowing that transition, he argued, would place Turkish military assets directly on Israel’s northern border, a development he frames as an unacceptable security risk.
Pollard’s background adds layers of sensitivity to his comments. After being granted Israeli citizenship upon his 2015 arrival, he has become a close ally of far-right Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, and has publicly supported extreme calls for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from occupied territories.
The forecast comes against a rapidly shifting backdrop of regional relations. For decades, both Egypt and Turkey maintained largely functional, at times warm, diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. Turkey made history in 1949 as the first Muslim-majority nation to formally recognize Israeli statehood, and the two partners built deep security and trade connections for most of their modern coexistence. That dynamic began to fray in 2010, when Israeli commandos raided the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish-flagged aid ship bound for Gaza, killing 10 people on board. Since that incident, Ankara has grown increasingly vocal in its condemnation of Israel’s treatment of the Palestinian people.
A high-profile push to reset bilateral relations in September 2023, which marked the first face-to-face handshake between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in years, collapsed just one month later following the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel and the subsequent Israeli military campaign in Gaza that has drawn widespread accusations of genocide. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, rhetorical hostilities between the two countries have escalated dramatically, with former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett already labeling Turkey as the “next Iran” in public comments earlier this year.
For Egypt, the 1979 Camp David peace treaty has anchored stable relations with Israel for 45 years, ending a decades-long pattern of open conflict between the two states. Even so, Egyptian leadership has grown increasingly critical of Israel’s military action in Gaza, straining what was once a reliably steady bilateral partnership.
Pollard acknowledged that he holds out hope that open war will not break out between Israel and the two states, but couched that optimism in a grim warning. He noted that “hope was the last demon out of Pandora’s Box” – suggesting optimism alone will not insulate Israel from the coming regional storm he predicts.
This reporting is based on independent analysis of original on-the-record comments from Pollard, contextualized against documented shifts in Middle East diplomatic relations.