分类： politics

In a major shift to the United Kingdom’s national security strategy following a wave of violent antisemitic attacks on British soil, the UK government has introduced groundbreaking emergency legislation that would formally ban Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a designated terrorist threat, alongside multiple other groups tied to hostile foreign states. The new law, which is scheduled to be laid before parliament this week, marks one of the most significant escalations in UK-Iran relations in recent years, crafted in direct response to a string of targeted assaults on Jewish communities across London earlier this year.\n\nUnder the proposed framework, anyone convicted of providing material support, funding, or assistance to the banned organizations will face a maximum prison sentence of 14 years, a steep penalty intended to deter hostile activity on UK territory. Beyond the IRGC, the ban will also extend to proxy networks and affiliate volunteers of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency, as well as the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right (IMCR) — an Iran-aligned group that has publicly claimed responsibility for multiple arson attacks on Jewish infrastructure in the capital, including the burning of four ambulances operated by the Jewish charity Hatzola in the Golders Green neighborhood of north London.\n\nA key innovation of the new legislation is the expansion of executive authority, granting the UK government so-called “proscription-like” powers to designate foreign state proxy groups that are deemed to pose a direct risk to national security. Critically, the new rules will remove the legal requirement for prosecutors to prove a direct connection between a suspect and a hostile foreign government in cases involving already designated groups, streamlining the legal process to speed up prosecutions of hostile actors.\n\nThe UK Home Office emphasized in an official statement that the legislative overhaul will substantially strengthen the government’s capacity to counter a broad spectrum of state-aligned threats, including espionage, foreign interference in British democratic processes, sabotage, and coordinated physical attacks against targets on UK soil. \n\nHome Office minister Angela Eagle outlined the rationale for the ban in a written ministerial statement, confirming that UK security agencies have documented multiple instances of IRGC-linked activity on British territory that involved direct threats to human life and organized intimidation of civilian communities. The government fast-tracked the drafting and introduction of the bill in response to the “abhorrent antisemitic attacks” that shook north London earlier this year, which included multiple arson strikes against synagogues, community emergency vehicles, and other Jewish community sites.\n\nLast month, a coalition of 22 countries including the UK, the United States, and multiple European nations issued a joint public statement blaming the IRGC and its foreign operations unit, the Quds Force, for coordinated plots targeting Iranian dissidents, independent journalists, and Jewish communities across the Western world. \n\nHome Secretary Shabana Mahmood framed the new legislation as a decisive response to transnational hostile activity on UK territory, saying “Iran and Russia are using proxies and thugs to do their dirty work on our shores. I have rapidly designated three groups so those working for them will be tracked down and put behind bars.” Prime Minister Keir Starmer echoed this stance, emphasizing that the new law sends a clear message that hostile foreign states will not be allowed to operate with impunity on UK territory.’

A fragile de-escalation agreement between the United States and Iran has been thrown into jeopardy as cross-border military strikes stretched into a second day on Monday, triggering massive volatility in global energy markets and raising fears of a full-blown conflict in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.

The standoff, centered on control of the world’s most important oil chokepoint, has already produced casualties and prompted retaliatory strikes across multiple regional states, with both sides trading blame for the sudden collapse of months of quiet diplomatic progress.

According to Iranian state news agencies Fars and Tasnim, Monday’s US airstrikes in Khuzestan province – a major oil-producing region in southwestern Iran bordering Kuwait and Iraq – left two people dead and three others injured. Additional reports from Mehr News Agency confirmed widespread reports of explosions near the key port city of Bandar Abbas and the nearby island of Qeshm, a major hub for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval forces.

Iran quickly retaliated against what it called unprovoked US aggression, with state television confirming that IRGC navy units fired warning shots at two commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran accused of violating its maritime regulations. The incident is the latest in a series of confrontations over access to the waterway, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil shipments pass.

The sudden resurgence of open hostilities sent shockwaves through global commodity markets on Monday. International benchmark Brent North Sea crude jumped as much as 5 percent in intraday trading, before settling around 3.5 percent higher at roughly $78 per barrel. U.S. domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate also recorded a sharp, unexpected spike, amplifying concerns about energy inflation for consumers worldwide.

Beyond strikes within Iran’s borders, the IRGC claimed responsibility for a series of missile and drone strikes targeting sites across four neighboring Gulf states: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman. The force announced it had destroyed radar installations in Oman and struck U.S. military facilities on the southern outskirts of Bahrain’s capital Manama. Air raid sirens activated across Bahrain, while Kuwait’s military announced it had intercepted “hostile aerial objects” entering its airspace. Jordan’s defense forces also confirmed they shot down four Iranian missiles, and Bahrain’s military accused Iran of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in the attack.

For its part, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed via a post on X that it had completed its latest round of strikes against Iranian targets, saying the operations were designed to disrupt Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. “CENTCOM forces struck Iranian military air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats,” the statement read.

Iranian officials confirmed Monday that they have already begun diplomatic outreach to mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman to de-escalate the crisis. But Tehran issued a stark warning that the latest U.S. attacks have erased months of diplomatic progress, and that it will withdraw from a previously signed memorandum of understanding with Washington if the U.S. fails to honor its existing commitments. “The U.S. regime has also caused the return of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and disruption of international commercial shipping by openly interfering in the process of Iran implementing the necessary arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz,” a foreign ministry statement read.

Speaking to CNN on Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that a broad new agreement between the two countries was within reach as recently as Saturday. “They were giving up everything, and then all of a sudden two hours after that they hit a ship with a drone. These people, there is something wrong with them,” Trump said, adding that U.S. strikes had hit Iran “very hard.”

As of Monday evening, neither side has signaled a willingness to step back from hostilities, leaving regional allies and global energy markets bracing for further escalation in a conflict that threatens to reshape security and economic stability across the Middle East.

As Kenya approaches its 2027 general election, a disturbing trend has taken root in the country’s political landscape: widespread hiring of low-paid armed thugs — locally referred to as “goons” — by political operatives to disrupt opposition rallies, attack anti-government demonstrators, and intimidate civil rights activists. Fueled by crippling systemic poverty and cutthroat political competition, this entrenched culture of violence is raising urgent alarm that the upcoming poll could descend into uncontrolled chaos.

A recent investigation by Nairobi-based independent research firm Odipo Dev has documented a clear “rate card” for these hired enforcers: local councilors pay as little as 500 Kenyan shillings (approximately $4) per day for their services, while members of parliament pay up to 1,000 shillings ($8) daily. For thousands of unemployed and underprivileged young Kenyans, this meager pay is often the only accessible source of income in an economy starved of formal work opportunities.

AFP spoke with five current goons on condition of anonymity, and their accounts lay bare the cycle of desperation that traps young people in this violent trade. Twenty-seven-year-old Marius, who has worked as a goon since he was 17, grew up in Korogocho, one of Nairobi’s most impoverished informal settlements, raised by a single mother who could not afford secondary school fees. His childhood dream of becoming a surgeon was quickly quashed, leaving him functionally illiterate with few other options to support himself. “You end up being a goon to at least earn something,” he explained. Though he initially projected confidence in his work, he later admitted he hides his dangerous trade from his young son, saying “I don’t want to expose him to the bad things I do. I don’t want him to follow in my shoes.” Marius already lost five teeth in a political brawl, when he was paid to disrupt the opening of a hospital by a rival politician.

Widespread official collusion enables this goon culture, even as both politicians and police publicly claim to be working to eradicate it. During large-scale anti-government protests in 2023, AFP correspondents witnessed hundreds of goons operating directly alongside uniformed police to attack demonstrators, before the goons looted and vandalized businesses in central Nairobi. Just last month, CCTV footage obtained by AFP shows uniformed officers marching alongside an armed gang that stormed Nairobi’s iconic All Saints Church to violently break up a planned civil society meeting. Earlier this month, an opposition rally in southwest Kenya was overrun by armed men, leaving one attendee dead and several others wounded — video footage from the scene shows police standing by passively, making no attempt to intervene.

National Police Service spokesperson Michael Muchiri dismissed allegations of institutional collaboration with goons as “preposterous,” telling AFP that any complicit officers are rogue actors currently under investigation. “The National Police Service is determined to ensure the ‘goon culture’ does not gain a foothold in this country,” Muchiri said. But analysts note that politicians from every major political faction rely on goons, filling a perceived gap in state security that leaves politicians unable to count on police protection for their events and operations. “There is a policing gap… and politicians feel the need to have this machinery either to defend themselves or to intimidate their opponents,” explained Odipo Dev researcher Darius Okolla.

Goonism in Kenya is not a new phenomenon; it has deep, poisonous roots that stretch back decades to the authoritarian rule of former president Daniel arap Moi. In the 1992 election cycle, Moi’s ruling party Kanu formed the group Youth for Kanu ’92 (YK’92), a youth movement organized to rally support for the incumbent regime, and it was widely accused of vote-buying and orchestrating political violence against opposition groups. A key organizer of YK’92 was current Kenyan President William Ruto, who was later charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court for his alleged role in the widespread 2007-2008 post-election violence that killed more than 1,000 people. The case ultimately collapsed after witnesses reported widespread intimidation.

Interviewees told AFP that since Ruto took office in 2022, following a divisive general election, the use of goons has reached a new peak. The Ruto administration has faced massive youth-led protests sparked by skyrocketing living costs, widespread economic hardship, and public anger over systemic corruption, and goons have been systematically deployed to crush these demonstrations. “The goons were used to put them down,” Marius said. “The goon rate has increased highly because (Ruto) likes operations like that.” The Ruto administration did not respond to multiple requests for comment from AFP for this report.

Rights advocates warn that if the current trend of escalating political violence through hired goons continues, Kenya has little chance of holding free, fair, and peaceful elections in August 2027. “If this trend continues, it is evident that Kenya will not have free, fair, and peaceful elections” said Hussein Khalid of Kenyan human rights organization Vocal Africa.

At its core, the rise of goon culture is driven by systemic economic desperation. World Bank data shows that roughly 800,000 young Kenyans enter the labor market every year, but the formal sector only creates around 100,000 new jobs annually, leaving seven out of eight new jobseekers locked out of formal work. Even educated young people struggle to find stable work: 28-year-old Daniel, a former altar boy who grew up in one of Nairobi’s slums as one of seven children, saw his parents scrape together enough money to put him through university where he studied criminology. But in Kenya, landing a formal job often requires political connections and cash to “buy” the position — resources his family did not have.

“They say education is the key, but honestly speaking we never find the padlock open,” Daniel told AFP. He has now worked as a goon for seven years, and he speaks openly of the deep regret he feels for the violence he has committed. “You find that you have even hit a woman… that woman is like my mother. But you had no option,” he said. Political handlers typically supply goons with alcohol and drugs to numb the self-loathing that comes with the job. “In a sober mind, it’s not easy,” he added.

Daniel alternates between shame and grim pragmatism about his role. He knows politicians use him “like tissue paper” to do their dirty work and will discard him once he is no longer useful, but he still welcomes the cash the work provides. He and other goons are already looking forward to the 2027 election campaign, when they expect a surge in demand for their services. “We are counting ourselves rich in the coming months because the election campaigns will be open,” he said. “At least we can benefit: we can get phones, come back with cash we are promised by these leaders.” Goons also gain a form of gang-like social status in their low-income neighborhoods, where many young people see them as local heroes. “We are heroes to these kids,” Daniel said.

The trade is deliberately structured to avoid leaving a digital trail: goons are hired through offline neighborhood networks, with no text messages or digital payments that could be traced. Recruits are instructed to gather at a prearranged location, dress all in black, and bring face coverings to hide their identities. All payments are made in cash, often in new, unmarked banknotes, according to interviewees.

Goons operate in cells of 20 to 50 people, led by a senior local handler. The most violent and ruthless enforcers — referred to as “person in the top gear” — have a small chance to climb the ranks, eventually becoming middlemen who connect politicians to low-level goons, and even potentially gaining access to mainstream political society. Multiple interviewees pointed to Calvince “Gaucho” Okoth, a controversial youth organizer who has been repeatedly linked to violent political mobilization despite denying he is a goon. Last month, Nairobi Governor Jonathan Sakaja appointed Okoth to the board of a local public hospital. “Someone like Gaucho was once a big fish. Now he’s a shark,” Daniel said.

Most goons care little for the political causes they are paid to advance, and many openly oppose the politicians they work for. “In Kibera, what you usually say: your money is not you,” explained 23-year-old David. The policy concerns of rights groups and middle-class anti-government protesters also feel distant and abstract to most goons, who face immediate survival pressures. “If we side with them, we will not be employed,” Marius explained. Having watched politicians profit from corruption and violence, many young goons see joining the system as the only way to get a share of the country’s wealth. “Each and every youth is interested in that activity because if you can’t beat them, then join them,” Daniel said.

Six months after the deadly Bondi Beach terrorist attack that claimed 15 innocent lives, New South Wales Premier Chris Minns has confirmed his state will proceed with a contentious national gun buyback scheme, even as most other Australian jurisdictions have walked away from the federal government’s reform plan.

Late last year, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese laid out an ambitious timeline to secure buy-in from all state and territorial governments for a unified national firearms reform package, with all legislation slated to pass by July 1. The proposed buyback was explicitly modeled after the landmark 1996 gun control measure introduced by then-Prime Minister John Howard in the wake of the Port Arthur massacre, one of Australia’s worst mass shooting events.

But widespread pushback has derailed the national framework. Most states led by conservative opposition parties have refused to commit to sharing the cost of the voluntary buyback program. Even the center-left Labor government of Victoria rejected the scheme in May, following an independent policy review, choosing instead to direct enforcement resources exclusively at criminal firearms possession.

Addressing reporters on Monday, Minns acknowledged that only the Australian Capital Territory has formally signed on to the federal plan, with Western Australia taking a separate, tangential approach. “To be frank … it does look like it will be NSW, the ACT, and a very similar form of reform in Western Australia – but, that’s likely to be the only states,” Minns said. “Nonetheless, we’re going ahead with it. We think it’s important for our state. We’re the ones who had the worst terrorism event the country’s seen and we want to have tough gun laws in place to keep people safe.”

Minns noted the buyback was briefly raised during the most recent national cabinet meeting but was not a major topic of debate. While he expressed disappointment that more jurisdictions did not join the national effort, he made clear NSW would not weaken its standards to align with less restrictive policies across the country. “We’re not going to be drawn down to the lowest common denominator across those jurisdictions,” he said. “If we’re going to have to, or we have to have, the toughest gun laws in Australia, that’s exactly what will happen.”

Western Australia has not formally joined the Albanese government’s coordinated buyback, but it has launched its own independent state-level buyback program that will run through 2026. Many of NSW’s post-Bondi firearms restrictions, including caps on the number of guns an individual can own, were already modeled on WA’s existing regulatory framework. The ACT is also moving forward with parallel reforms aligned with the national plan, including its own gun ownership cap and reclassification of certain weapon categories.

The reform push has faced sharp criticism from political opponents, who argue the new rules disproportionately penalize law-abiding gun owners rather than targeting violent criminals. Nationals Leader Matt Canavan recently condemned the plan as a failure, arguing that targeting legal firearm owners was never an appropriate response to the Bondi attack. “This was confirmed by the interim report of the royal commission, which said that no state or federal agency reported that the laws as they stood at the time were insufficient to prevent an attack,” Canavan said. “States and territories have rightly walked away from this unworkable scheme because it went too far. The only thing Labor accomplished was demonising lawful firearm owners.”

Albanese’s federal government secured parliamentary approval for the reform package – including enabling legislation for the buyback, new requirements that gun licences only be issued to Australian citizens, and new limits on licence length – when parliament resumed in early January. However, the vast majority of firearms regulation in Australia falls under state jurisdiction, leaving the federal government dependent on state cooperation to implement a uniform national regime.

A full royal commission examining the Bondi attack, focused on issues of anti-Semitism and social cohesion, is currently holding public hearings, with a final report expected to be released before the end of the year.