分类： politics

LONDON – It has been 10 years since United Kingdom voters cast the historic referendum that split the nation, upended decades of European integration, and continues to define British politics to this day. The 2016 vote that birthed Brexit – shorthand for British exit from the European Union – delivered a narrow but transformative result: 52% of voters, totaling more than 17 million people, backed leaving the bloc. That slim margin triggered the most sweeping restructuring of Britain’s economy and society since the end of World War II. Like any complex marital dissolution, the formal separation was far from instantaneous: the full process stretched out over nearly five years before Brexit became official.

The Brexit campaign grew from mounting public frustration, fueled not just by discontent with EU governance but also the lingering economic fallout of the 2008 global financial crisis. Leave campaigners channeled that widespread anger, promising that an independent Britain would be reinvigorated, free to set its own priorities and focus entirely on domestic needs. Conversely, Remain supporters warned that exiting the bloc would trigger severe economic chaos and erode Britain’s global standing. A decade on from the 2016 vote, the outcomes of the historic decision are coming into sharp focus.

### Unmet Economic Promises and Lingering Stagnation
Brexit backers, commonly called Brexiters, once outlined a bold vision: outside the EU, Britain would unleash the entrepreneurial, buccaneering spirit that once made it the world’s preeminent global power and build a thriving independent economy. While overlapping global shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and escalating Middle East tensions – have muddied outcomes, the promised economic revitalization has failed to materialize.

The 27-nation EU remains the UK’s largest trading partner by a wide margin, but British businesses have faced persistent new hurdles to cross-Channel trade. Though no tariffs apply to most British goods entering the bloc, a thick web of non-tariff barriers has slowed commerce: burdensome customs documentation, strict border certification requirements, and new visa restrictions that increase time and cost for traders. Most of the ambitious new trade deals that Brexiters touted – most prominently a comprehensive bilateral agreement with the United States – have never been finalized.

Independent economic analysis confirms the UK has paid a steep price for the split. Experts estimate the British economy is between 4% and 8% smaller today than it would have been if the country had voted to remain in the bloc. That gap translates to lower household living standards and billions of pounds in lost revenue that could have been directed to public services – including the country’s beloved National Health Service (NHS). During the campaign, Brexit leaders infamously promised a 350 million pound weekly boost to NHS funding, a claim emblazoned on their iconic red campaign bus that has never come to fruition.

“Brexit has made the U.K. economy smaller than it otherwise would have been,” explained Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College London. Writing for the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, Portes noted: “The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity.”

Brexit supporters push back against short-term criticism, arguing that the benefits of leaving the bloc can only be measured over decades. They maintain that short-term economic disruption was a predictable tradeoff for regaining full control over key policy areas, most notably immigration rules.

### Immigration: A Broken Promise of Border Control
Ending the free movement of people between the UK and EU was a core policy goal of Brexit, but the push to “take back control” of Britain’s borders has delivered mixed results at best. While net migration from European countries has plummeted as promised, overall net migration from non-EU nations has surged. That sharp rise is partly a product of visa rule changes enacted by the former Conservative government, designed to fill critical labor gaps in sectors heavily dependent on foreign workers, such as elder care.

In recent years, the UK government has moved to tighten overall immigration rules, and net migration has fallen sharply from a peak of more than 900,000 in 2023 to just 171,000 in 2024. Even as overall numbers decline, public anger has erupted over illegal migration, particularly the small boat crossings of the English Channel that bring asylum seekers – many fleeing war and persecution in Afghanistan, Sudan, and other conflict zones – to British shores.

Though these crossings account for a tiny fraction of total migration to the UK, the issue has become one of the country’s most divisive political flashpoints. Crossings peaked at 46,000 in 2022, and remained high at 41,000 in 2023. Public outrage has centered on the cost of housing asylum seekers at public expense, and in some cases, violent protests have erupted outside hotels that house asylum seekers, including attempted arson attacks on facilities.

### Shifting Political Tides and Growing Public Regret
In the decade since the referendum, Britain’s political landscape has fractured dramatically, with support collapsing for the two long-dominant parties: the Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party, which held power for 14 years and spent most of its final term mired in intractable debates over UK-EU relations, was voted out of office in 2024. The new Labour government has failed to win over public confidence, with widespread expectations that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce his resignation in the near future.

Many disillusioned voters have flocked to Reform UK, the right-wing party led by iconic Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage. Farage’s party has held the lead in nearly every national opinion poll for more than a year.

Alongside this political upheaval, a growing consensus has emerged across the UK that the Brexit project has failed. Recent polling from Ipsos finds that 52% of British voters now favor rejoining the EU, compared to just 33% who oppose re-entry. The poll also found that 48% of respondents believe Brexit has performed worse than they expected, while only 9% say it has gone better than expected. Nearly half of voters – 48% – support holding a second referendum on EU membership, compared to just 27% who oppose a new public vote.

### A Path Forward Remains Elusive
Against this backdrop, the ruling Labour Party has navigated a precarious political tightrope since winning the 2024 general election. Party leaders have explicitly ruled out reversing Brexit, or even rejoining the EU’s frictionless single market, leaving little room for major policy shifts. Starmer has pushed for a limited “reset” of UK-EU relations focused on easing trade barriers, built up after years of acrimonious negotiations. He is expected to announce new easing measures at an upcoming summit with EU leaders next month – if he still holds the office of prime minister by that time.

Andy Burnham, widely seen as Starmer’s most likely successor, has softened his stance on re-entry while campaigning ahead of a recent key special election. Burnham defeated a Reform UK challenger in a constituency that heavily backed Brexit in 2016. “I am not proposing that the U.K. considers rejoining the EU,” Burnham said. “I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don’t respect that vote.”

Associated Press writer Jill Lawless contributed reporting from London.

More than four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, escalating military strikes on both sides have created a growing humanitarian and logistical crisis in the illegally Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, where Moscow-backed occupation authorities have implemented a total ban on public fuel sales.

The suspension of fuel access for private individuals and local businesses comes after weeks of growing supply chain disruptions, which were already forcing limited fuel rationing across the region. Ukraine’s ongoing targeting of key supply routes into Russian-occupied territories has severely cut off fuel deliveries to the peninsula, worsening existing shortages. Occupation governor Sergey Aksyonov announced that starting immediately, all fuel at Crimean petrol stations will be reserved exclusively for government entities tasked with maintaining the region’s basic operations and security framework.

The latest round of strikes on the peninsula began overnight before the fuel ban announcement, when a Ukrainian drone attack hit a major oil depot in the Crimean port city of Kerch. Aksyonov confirmed the attack left four civilians dead and 28 others wounded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky framed the strike as a justified retaliation for ongoing brutal Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory.

Zelensky also confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck an oil transportation logistics facility in Russia’s Krasnodar region, which sits across the Kerch Strait directly adjacent to Crimea. Local Russian authorities reported one person was killed on a passenger ferry near the targeted site. The Ukrainian leader added that multiple Russian military logistics sites and radar installations were also hit in the coordinated wave of attacks, though he did not disclose exact locations of all targets.

“Russia understands only strength, and our long-range strength is certainly working for peace,” Zelensky wrote in an official statement posted to the social platform X. He also noted that at least seven Ukrainians had been killed in Russian strikes over the preceding weekend, with more than 30 people injured – several of whom were children. In response to the Ukrainian attacks, Russia’s defense ministry claimed its air defense forces shot down 239 Ukrainian drones overnight.

Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, has faced persistent logistical failures and commodity shortages in recent months as Ukraine intensifies strikes against key infrastructure supporting Russian military operations in the region. The peninsula holds major strategic importance for Russia, serving as a launch base for Russian strikes on other parts of southern Ukraine. It is also a traditional summer holiday destination for Russian tourists, many of whom have already reported widespread difficulties accessing fuel for their vehicles to return to mainland Russia.

Kyiv has deliberately targeted Russian energy and oil infrastructure in recent months as part of a deliberate strategy to disrupt the fuel supplies that underpin Russia’s war effort. Just last week, a Ukrainian strike on a Russian oil refinery triggered a massive oil spill that rained black crude onto parts of Moscow, marking the largest single Ukrainian attack on Russian domestic infrastructure since the full-scale invasion began. Moscow has already vowed to carry out retaliatory strikes for the attack.

The United Kingdom is facing yet another period of political upheaval, as sitting Prime Minister Keir Starmer confronts an existential challenge to his leadership of the governing Labour Party that could end his tenure just months after he won a landslide general election victory. The crisis erupted after Andy Burnham, the wildly popular former Greater Manchester mayor, secured a resounding win in last week’s special parliamentary election for the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, clearing the way for him to launch a formal challenge to Starmer’s top post.

Burnham will be sworn in as a Member of the House of Commons on Monday, and growing speculation across Westminster suggests Starmer could use that same day to announce a timeline for his resignation. While the prime minister has repeatedly vowed publicly to defend his position and fight any leadership challenge, internal pressure within the Labour Party has mounted rapidly in recent weeks, with a growing number of sitting Labour lawmakers concluding Starmer’s time in Downing Street has run its course.

As of Sunday, Starmer has remained out of the public eye, spending the weekend with his family at Chequers, the official country residence of the British prime minister. The only public statement he released over the weekend came via social media for Father’s Day, where he wrote, “Being a dad is my greatest joy. Today, I’m thinking about my dad, and the father I am to my children because of him.” Business Secretary Peter Kyle, one of Starmer’s remaining cabinet allies, told the BBC on Sunday that the prime minister is “making time to reflect on the political realities, challenges and opportunities that he finds himself in.” Kyle pushed back on immediate resignation reports, framing them as unconfirmed speculation, while adding that Starmer “always puts his country first” in his decision-making.

The roots of the current leadership crisis stretch back months, following Starmer’s landslide general election win in July 2024 that brought Labour back to power after years of Conservative rule. Since taking office, Starmer has failed to deliver on his core campaign promises: he has been unable to jumpstart promised economic growth, fix strained public services that have yet to recover from years of austerity and the COVID-19 pandemic, or bring meaningful relief to households grappling with persistent cost-of-living pressures. His tenure has also been marred by a string of damaging missteps, most prominently his controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson — a figure with long documented ties to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein — as British ambassador to the United States.

This string of failures has sent Labour’s poll numbers plummeting. The party is haemorrhaging liberal voters to the surging Green Party, while the Nigel Farage-led anti-immigration party Reform UK has pulled into a consistent lead in national opinion polls, a startling shift for a government just months into its first term. If Starmer steps down now, he will become the sixth British prime minister to leave office in just a decade, marking an unprecedented level of leadership turnover that has deepened public distrust in UK political institutions.

Burnham’s decisive election win last Thursday cemented his position as the leading challenger. He captured nearly 55% of the vote, beating the second-place Reform UK candidate by more than 9,000 votes, a margin that sent shockwaves through the Labour Party. In his victory speech, Burnham made his ambitions for the top job clear, leaving no doubt he is ready to lead. “Everyone knows that politics isn’t working,” he told supporters. “Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.”

Now that he holds a seat in the Commons, Burnham meets the eligibility requirements to launch a leadership challenge. What comes next remains uncertain: if Starmer resigns, it is unclear whether Burnham will be endorsed as the consensus successor or face a competitive contest. Wes Streeting, who resigned from Starmer’s cabinet as Health Secretary last month in protest of his leadership, has already confirmed he will run for the leadership if a vacancy opens up.

While Starmer congratulated Burnham on his election win last Friday, he reaffirmed his commitment to holding onto power. “I will run, I will stand,” he said, noting that he has “repeatedly said I’m not going to walk away from that.” But senior party figures have already abandoned support for the prime minister. Charlie Falconer, a veteran Labour peer in the House of Lords, told the BBC Saturday that Starmer has “absolutely no authority” left to govern. Falconer called for an orderly transition, saying, “There should be an agreed transition process in which Andy and Keir cooperate as to when the handover should take place.”

U.S. Vice President JD Vance touched down in Zurich on Sunday, kicking off a critical new phase of diplomatic efforts to formalize an agreement with Iran that would curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and solidify the fragile interim deal aimed at ending the ongoing war in the country. The foundational framework for the negotiations was signed just one week prior, setting negotiators from both sides on a tight 60-day deadline to hash out complex technical details that carry sweeping consequences for global energy markets and international security.

The opening days of this critical two-month negotiation window have already been thrown into chaos by renewed violent exchanges across the Lebanon-Israel border between the Israeli military and Iranian-backed Hezbollah. Escalating tensions there prompted an immediate announcement from Iran’s military that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, the strategically vital global shipping chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil and natural gas pass.

Vance’s arrival had originally been scheduled for Friday at the scenic Bürgenstock resort outside Lucerne, but his departure from the U.S. was pushed back after cross-border fighting intensified and Iranian officials initially canceled their delegation’s travel plans. His trip got underway only after Iranian state television confirmed that Tehran’s negotiating team had already reached Swiss soil. The Iranian delegation includes parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and senior officials from Iran’s central bank and ministry of petroleum.

In a direct pushback against Tehran’s closure announcement, U.S. Central Command has disputed Iran’s claim that the strait is shuttered, noting that U.S. military assets remain deployed in the region to monitor activity and guarantee unimpeded passage for global shipping. Vance himself has pushed back on the closure narrative, confirming that millions of barrels of oil have continued transiting the waterway in recent days.

Once on the ground, Vance will join special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, who have already begun preliminary work unpacking the technical parameters of the nuclear negotiations. The talks will also include Qatari mediators, alongside Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir.

While Vance has stated he only intends to stay in Switzerland for “a day or two,” leaving the bulk of technical negotiations to be led by Witkoff and Kushner, his high-profile involvement has drawn intensified public and political scrutiny, coming as he openly considers a potential 2028 presidential campaign.

The interim deal itself, signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, has already sparked fierce backlash from hard-line factions within Trump’s own Republican Party. Critics have drawn unfavorable comparisons to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, an agreement Trump and congressional Republicans have long argued failed to fully eliminate Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Under the terms of the new interim agreement, Tehran immediately gains the right to resume open global oil sales and unlocks access to billions of dollars in overseas assets that have been frozen under international sanctions. It also requires Iran to dilute its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium, material that was the target of U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last summer.

The framework also guarantees free passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for the 60-day duration of negotiations, but does not rule out the imposition of transit fees by Iran at a later date. Over the weekend, Trump issued a counter-threat on social media, stating that if no permanent agreement is reached within the 60-day window, the U.S. will impose its own transit tolls on the strait, with proceeds going to what he called the U.S. “Guardian Angel” mission protecting Middle Eastern nations.

Regional instability continues to complicate the diplomatic push. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are parties to the U.S.-Iran interim deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to keep Israeli forces deployed in southern Lebanon until all perceived threats to Israeli territory are eliminated, while Hezbollah has refused to halt cross-border attacks until Israel agrees to a full withdrawal from Lebanese territory. In the first days of fighting following the U.S.-Iran framework signing, clashes have left 47 people dead in Lebanon and four Israeli soldiers killed, raising fears that broader regional conflict could derail the nuclear negotiations entirely.

A new diplomatic rift has emerged between two key Eastern European partners, Ukraine and Poland, after Poland’s newly appointed president Karol Nawrocki announced he would strip Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of Poland’s highest state honor, the Order of the White Eagle. In response, Zelensky confirmed he has already returned the award, and three senior Ukrainian government officials have followed suit, returning their own Polish-conferred honors in a show of solidarity with their leader.

The controversy traces back to a decision made by Kyiv late last month, when Ukrainian authorities renamed a frontline army unit in honor of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), a mid-20th century nationalist movement that remains one of the most divisive topics in shared Polish-Ukrainian history. For many Ukrainians, the UPA, which operated from the 1940s into the 1950s, is celebrated as a heroic independence movement that fought against multiple occupying forces – Nazi Germany, the Soviet Red Army, and interwar Polish governance. Today, the group’s iconic red-and-black flag is widely displayed by Ukrainian soldiers fighting on the front lines against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Poland, however, holds a sharply different interpretation of the UPA’s legacy. The Polish government accuses the organization of perpetrating a targeted genocide that killed an estimated 100,000 ethnic Polish civilians in the Volhynia region (now northwestern Ukraine) between 1943 and 1945. Nawrocki, who took office this year, condemned Kyiv’s naming decision in an official video statement, calling the move “outrageous”, “incomprehensible” and “deeply disappointing”. “For the overwhelming majority of Polish society, the UPA remains, above all, a formation responsible for the brutal crimes committed against citizens of the Republic of Poland during World War Two,” he said, adding that the decision harms shared historical memory and erodes years of carefully built trust between the two nations.

In his own social media statement responding to the honor revocation, Zelensky struck a conciliatory tone despite the escalating dispute. He emphasized that Ukraine “remain[s] open to all meaningful formats of engagement with Poland in order to try to avoid conflicting interpretations of the difficult and painful chapters of our shared past”, and reaffirmed Ukraine’s gratitude for the Polish people’s consistent support and cooperation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022.

Notably, both sides have moved quickly to stress that the diplomatic row will not undermine Poland’s longstanding military and humanitarian support for Ukraine, which has been a cornerstone of Kyiv’s war effort. Warsaw has stood as one of Kyiv’s most staunch allies throughout the conflict, hosting more than 600,000 Ukrainian refugees and serving as a critical logistics hub for Western military and humanitarian aid flowing into the country. Nawrocki explicitly stated that the disagreement over historical memory would not alter Poland’s commitment to backing Ukraine against Russian aggression.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also waded into the debate, warning that internal friction between the two neighboring allies only benefits Moscow. “Any feud [between Ukraine and Poland] delights [Vladimir] Putin,” Tusk wrote on social media, calling on both Zelensky and Nawrocki to “calm emotions, not to stoke tensions”.

The dispute comes at a sensitive moment for Ukraine, which this week opened the first round of official European Union accession negotiations in Luxembourg, a key milestone in Kyiv’s decades-long ambition to join the bloc. Poland has long supported Ukraine’s EU integration, but the historical controversy has laid bare the ongoing challenges of reconciling divergent national memories as the two countries navigate their close strategic partnership amid the ongoing war with Russia.

The Order of the White Eagle, Poland’s highest decoration, was originally awarded to Zelensky in 2023 by then-Polish president Andrzej Duda, in recognition of Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty and the deep bilateral ties between the two nations at the time.

BARCELONA, Spain – In a landmark ruling that has upended Spanish politics just months ahead of a scheduled general election, an investigative judge ordered Saturday that Begoña Gómez, wife of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, must stand trial on charges of influence peddling, public corruption, and misuse of public funds. The judge also imposed restrictive pre-trial conditions, including the surrender of Gómez’s passport and mandatory bi-weekly court appearances, over concerns that she poses a flight risk. A formal trial date has not yet been scheduled.

Investigative magistrate Juan Carlos Peinado confirmed that two other co-defendants – a businessman accused of benefiting from the improperly awarded government contracts, and a consultant hired by Gómez – will also face trial alongside the prime minister’s spouse. The charges against Gómez outline three separate alleged offenses: abuse of her position as the prime minister’s wife to steer lucrative public technology contracts to a specific group of firms, misappropriation of public money to fund an unapproved consultant hire, and unauthorized use of institutional software during her tenure as a professor at a Spanish public university.

Gómez has repeatedly and vehemently denied all allegations of wrongdoing. Prime Minister Sánchez, whose left-leaning Socialist government has held office since 2018, has denounced the entire investigation as a coordinated politically motivated smear campaign orchestrated by his conservative opponents to force his government from power. The two-year probe was initially initiated after accusations were filed by Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), a right-aligned pressure group that has launched dozens of high-profile legal actions targeting left-wing Spanish politicians.

Saturday’s ruling has immediately ignited a fierce national political confrontation, with opposition leaders demanding the immediate resignation of Sánchez’s government and calling for snap general elections. Miguel Tellado, secretary-general of the main conservative opposition party the People’s Party, framed the decision as evidence of systemic institutional failure under the current government. “Lawmakers and the architects of our constitution could never have imagined that the threats to our democracy could originate from the Spanish government itself,” Tellado said. “Now we see how the government attacks judges, prosecutors and the media while attempting to silence opposition parties. This is unthinkable in any modern democracy.”

In response, Socialist Party officials and government representatives have pushed back hard, dismissing the ruling as a politically motivated attack that undermines Spain’s democratic institutions. The party issued a formal statement calling the court decision “an absolute scandal for democracy”, adding: “Begoña Gómez is innocent. For two years now, she has been the target of a political and judicial witch hunt. Today’s development is just the latest escalation.”

The corruption case against Gómez is just the latest in a string of legal troubles facing Sánchez and the Socialist Party ahead of the mandatory general election scheduled to take place by 2024. Earlier this week, former Socialist Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero was summoned to testify before a separate judge in connection with an investigation into an alleged improper government airline bailout. Zapatero was also questioned over the discovery of high-end jewelry seized during a police raid on his office; he has denied all wrongdoing in the case.

Sánchez, a prominent European critic of former U.S. President Donald Trump, now faces mounting pressure from across the political aisle as the legal drama surrounding his spouse continues to unfold, deepening divisions in the Spanish political landscape ahead of next year’s vote.