分类： business

A confluence of bullish signals from global markets and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed Australia’s benchmark share index to solid gains on Thursday, capping a day of uneven sector performance driven by falling crude oil prices. The ASX 200 closed 84.50 points, or 0.96%, higher at 8878.10, while the broader All Ordinaries index rose 90.90 points, or 1.01%, to settle at 9107. The Australian dollar also edged up 0.20% to trade at 72.49 U.S. cents by market close. The rally followed a record-setting overnight session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the technology-focused Nasdaq climbed 2.08% to both hit new all-time closing highs. The upward momentum in U.S. equities was triggered by a breakthrough diplomatic development: the U.S. government tabled a one-page proposal that could pave the way for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint. U.S. President Donald Trump announced via social media that he was pausing military “Project Freedom” for a short period to allow time for a final agreement with Iran to be negotiated and signed. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that this more constructive geopolitical tone injected fresh optimism into global markets, pulling West Texas Intermediate crude prices back below the key $100 per barrel threshold. For the ASX, falling oil prices delivered an outsized boost to mining and resources stocks, which led all 11 market sectors with a 3.67% collective gain. Major iron ore miners posted double-digit gains in line with the sector: BHP rose 3.78% to $58.52, Rio Tinto gained 3.23% to $180.24, and Fortescue Metals outperformed many peers with a 3.73% rise to $21.42. Gold producers also rallied alongside rising spot gold prices, which traded at $4709 per ounce at press time. Northern Star Resources climbed 4.38% to $31.70, Evolution Mining surged 6.33% to $13.10, and Newmont Corporation added 2.78% to $160.06. Consumer staples, another key driver of the day’s gains, also saw broad upward movement. Woolworths closed 0.92% higher at $34.16, Coles eked out a 0.37% gain to $21.81, and Treasury Wine Estates rose 1.17% to $4.34. Not all sectors joined the rally, however. Energy stocks bore the brunt of lower crude prices, posting broad losses across the board. Woodside Energy slumped 4.24% to $30.49, Santos fell 3.30% to $7.63, and fuel retailer Ampol dropped 2.28% to $34.22. In the fintech space, digital financial services firm Zip bucked broader market trends to post a 4.76% gain to $2.64 after it reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance of $260 million in earnings before interest and tax. Conversely, wagering operator TAB suffered a steep 23.48% nosedive to $0.88 after Australia’s financial intelligence agency Austrac issued a formal notice over the firm’s compliance failures with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations. Gaming firm Lights & Wonder also closed 8.34% lower at $102.66 after reporting mixed first-quarter 2026 results: overall earnings rose 5% year-over-year, but adjusted net profit after tax slipped 2% to US$115 million (AU$159 million). In total, seven of the ASX’s 11 sectors finished the session in positive territory, closing out one of the market’s strongest single-day gains in recent weeks. Altogether, the day’s trading highlighted how shifting geopolitical developments and global market momentum continue to shape Australian equities, with commodity price movements driving sharp divergences across sector performance.

After nearly a decade of consistent goods trade surpluses, Australia’s unbroken run has come to an abrupt end, with official data revealing a $1.8 billion deficit in March driven by two key factors: skyrocketing global fuel costs and a historic, unexpected surge in data centre equipment imports from Taiwan.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published the revised trade data on Thursday, confirming the sharp reversal in the country’s goods trade balance. Analysts point to two primary contributors to the unanticipated deficit: the rapid spike in global energy prices and a one-in-a-generation jump in imports of automatic data processing (ADP) equipment, core infrastructure for modern data centres.

First, the global oil market disruption that rippled across the world in March hit Australia’s import bill particularly hard. With roughly 20% of the world’s total crude oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, regional conflict that disrupted shipping lanes in the key chokepoint sent oil prices soaring from around $US56 per barrel in January, before tensions escalated, to a range of $US100 to $US110 per barrel by March. This translated directly to a 53.6% jump in Australia’s total fuel and lubricant import spending, adding an extra $2.1 billion to the import bill and pushing the total value of fuel imports to $6.1 billion for the month. For Australian consumers, every $US10 increase in crude prices adds an extra 10 cents per litre at domestic fuel pumps, a burden that has weighed heavily on household budgets through the early months of 2024.

The second, far more unexpected factor driving the deficit was a 322% monthly surge in ADP equipment imports from Taiwan. The total value of these shipments jumped from $1.6 billion in February to $4.8 billion in March, more than doubling the previous record high of $2.3 billion for this product category. Economists say most of this imported equipment consists of high-performance semiconductors and computing hardware destined for Australia’s growing fleet of new data centres, as demand for cloud computing and AI infrastructure booms domestically.

“The biggest surprise for markets and analysts was unquestionably the jump in ADP equipment imports,” explained Harry Ottley, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The vast majority is almost certainly chips and computing hardware for data centre buildouts, and this was a material increase that no one forecast. We still don’t know for certain if this is a one-off large shipment for a single major infrastructure project, or the start of a sustained upward trend in capital imports for the tech sector.”

Ottley added that while the surge in fuel prices was largely expected given the ongoing Middle Eastern tensions, the scale of the ADP import jump caught the entire industry off guard.

The deficit was also exacerbated by an unexpected downturn in Australia’s key rural export sector, which saw an 11.6% drop in rural goods export values in March. Non-rural exports remained largely flat overall: a 0.3% uptick was driven by rising global gas prices that offset falling values for iron ore and coal, two of Australia’s largest export commodities.

Looking ahead, Ottley noted that the pressure on Australia’s trade balance is likely to persist in the coming months, even as some factors offset the drag. “Energy markets have remained tight through early May, and while additional shipments are now arriving, the value of fuel imports is likely to stay elevated in the next few monthly reports,” he said. “This will continue to put downward pressure on the overall trade balance, though that drag will be partially offset by higher export prices for one of Australia’s key commodities – liquefied natural gas.”

Ottley projected that the March trade deficit will cut approximately 0.8 percentage points from Australia’s gross domestic product for the current quarter, though he noted that much of the hit to GDP from falling net exports will be countered by gains elsewhere in the economy: the massive ADP equipment imports represent a major increase in private business investment, a positive driver of long-term economic growth.

The end of Australia’s nine-year trade surplus streak marks a key shift in the country’s trade dynamics, driven by both global energy market volatility and a historic wave of capital investment in the domestic digital economy.

Ahead of the upcoming Australian federal budget, Westpac’s top economist has sounded a sharp warning about growing government overreach and called for sweeping policy reforms to unlock economic potential for Australian women and older workers. In a high-profile address to the National Press Club, chief economist Luci Ellis made a targeted case for rolling back unnecessary bureaucratic complexity, arguing that ballooning regulation and administrative burdens are disproportionately holding back Australian women, while breeding a culture of “learned helplessness” across the community.

Ellis pointed to the rapid, unplanned expansion of the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) as a defining example of well-intentioned policy gone awry. Launched with the core mission of supporting Australians living with permanent, severe disabilities, the scheme has since expanded to cover a far broader range of services, creating layers of unnecessary administrative work that falls heaviest on family members — most of whom are women. Even well-meaning additional regulation, she emphasized, ultimately adds unnecessary complexity to daily household life.

“Policy circles are seeing a growing expectation that government must step in to solve every problem, and that expectation has driven exponential growth in the size and scope of the public sector,” Ellis explained in her speech. She highlighted the tangible downstream impacts of this shift: a growing share of household income going toward taxes, an ever-expanding regulatory footprint across industries, and a mounting “life admin” burden that falls disproportionately on women.

Ellis drew on a wide range of examples to illustrate the scope of regulatory bloat, from the multiple layers of approval developers must secure from overlapping government agencies to the ever-expanding length of Australia’s Income Tax Assessment Act. In a memorable, lighthearted jab at the growing complexity of public policy, she referenced a lyric from iconic feminist artist Avril Lavigne: “why did you have to go and make things so complicated.”

Beyond regulatory bloat, Ellis warned that constant government intervention every time a challenge arises risks creating a state of “learned helplessness” across the community. She also called out outdated misconceptions about women’s workforce participation and population ageing that continue to hold back Australia’s economy, arguing that current policy is built on flawed assumptions that do not reflect modern demographic and labor market trends.

“If the government wants to harness the full economic opportunity of an ageing population and a workforce that includes more older workers and more women, it should prioritize removing barriers to women entering, re-entering, and remaining in the workforce for as long as they choose and are able,” Ellis said.

She emphasized that getting the NDIS back on a sustainable footing and refocusing it on its core mission of supporting severely disabled people would go a long way toward reducing the unpaid care burden falling on Australian women, who currently carry a disproportionate share of responsibility for both caring for children and ageing parents. As an alternative to the current NDIS model, Ellis suggested that well-funded school-based support, with training for both teachers and parents, could better support many children currently on the scheme, without adding layers of extra administrative work that require parents to attend multiple provider appointments.

Ellis added that reducing administrative burdens for families should be a non-negotiable core principle guiding all federal and state government initiatives, not just disability policy. She also called for targeted overhauls of tax and retirement policy to better support women who take career breaks for caregiving, noting that much of Australia’s existing economic policy framework is built on the outdated assumption that an ageing population will automatically lead to a shrinking workforce.

“Budgets, intergenerational reviews, and all types of public policy should be revised to reflect actual demographic and labor market trends, rather than outdated first-generation assumptions about ageing,” she said. The Labor government is set to unveil its fifth federal budget on May 12, with policymakers facing growing pressure to address cost-of-living pressures and unlock long-term economic growth.

A sweeping risk-on rally swept through Asian equity markets on Thursday, with Tokyo’s benchmark index leading sharp gains across the region as two key catalysts — rising hopes for a negotiated end to the US-Iran conflict and a resurgent wave of artificial intelligence investment — lifted investor sentiment to multi-week highs.

The upward momentum followed a dramatic shift in geopolitical tone earlier this week, after US President Donald Trump announced that a deal to end hostilities between Washington and Tehran was within reach. Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Trump confirmed that constructive talks had taken place over the preceding 24 hours, noting that “it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.” If Iran agrees to the terms already outlined, he said, the war would end immediately; a rejection would see US bombing resume at “a much higher level and intensity.”

US-based news outlet Axios later reported, citing two unnamed senior US officials, that both negotiating teams have edged close to finalizing a concise one-page memorandum of understanding. The draft agreement would end active hostilities, reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, and establish a framework for follow-up negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily crude oil supplies, has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since early March, tightening global energy markets and pushing oil prices sharply higher.

Iran has not yet formally accepted the US proposal. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told local Iranian media that the offer remains “still under review,” while parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — who has led Iran’s negotiation team — warned that Washington’s approach amounted to an attempt to “force us to surrender.” Still, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated early exploratory talks hosted in Islamabad last month, said he remained “very hopeful” that a breakthrough could be reached.

The rising prospect of de-escalation triggered sharp swings across global commodity and financial markets this week. Oil prices, which fell roughly 10% over the preceding two trading days on hopes of the Hormuz strait reopening, held steady on Thursday: West Texas Intermediate traded flat at $95.08 per barrel, while Brent North Sea Crude edged up 0.1% to $101.32 per barrel. Lower energy price expectations have also eased persistent inflation concerns, lifting gold prices more than 3% in Wednesday’s session and driving a broad rally in bonds.

In equity markets, the positive geopolitical shift aligned with a fresh wave of investor enthusiasm for AI-related assets, building on record gains from Wall Street in the prior session. Strong quarterly earnings from leading US tech giants including Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet reignited buying pressure for technology stocks across Asia, amplifying the risk-on rally.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 led regional gains, surging 5.7% to close at 62,915.87 as Japanese investors returned from an extended public holiday. SoftBank, Japan’s leading technology investment firm, rocketed more than 15% on the day, while key chip industry players Tokyo Electron and Advantest notched double-digit gains. In Seoul, the benchmark Kospi extended the prior day’s rally to close above the 7,000-point milestone for the first time in history, with Samsung continuing its upward march after recently crossing the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold. Major markets across Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta all posted solid gains on the day.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, noted that the confluence of positive catalysts created near-perfect conditions for a broad market rally. “Traders aggressively embraced the idea that the Iran war may finally be shifting from missile trajectories to negotiation tables, while the AI frenzy simultaneously poured jet fuel onto the risk rally,” he said. “The result was one of those rare sessions where nearly every macro domino fell in perfect sequence. Oil collapsed, bonds rallied, the dollar sank, gold exploded higher, and stocks surged.”

Japanese investors also remained focused on currency movements this week, amid persistent speculation that Japanese authorities have intervened in foreign exchange markets to prop up the yen, which has faced downward pressure from surging oil prices and safe-haven flows into the US dollar. The yen hit a 10-month high against the greenback on Wednesday, fuelling rumors of official support. Local Japanese media reported last week that the government spent between $32 billion and $38 billion buying yen in the market, citing data from the Bank of Japan. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency official, declined to comment on the speculation when asked by reporters Thursday. The dollar traded at 156.23 yen on Thursday, down slightly from 156.39 yen at the close of Wednesday’s session.

Australian Radio Network (ARN) Media’s board of directors faced intense scrutiny from disgruntled shareholders at its annual general meeting held in North Sydney on Thursday, as investors slammed leadership for a year of steep financial losses, a collapsing share price, and the high-profile split and subsequent legal battle with beloved breakfast radio hosts Kyle Sandilands and Jackie Henderson, known collectively as Kyle and Jackie O.

During the meeting, senior ARN executives laid out the scale of the company’s recent financial troubles, confirming that total annual revenue for the 12 months ending December fell 10% year-on-year to $285 million. Metro radio division revenue dropped by $28 million over the period, according to chief executive Michael Stephenson. Of that decline, he explained, just $6 million stemmed from broader industry headwinds in a tough advertising market, while the remaining $22 million came from advertisers pulling spending over brand safety concerns tied directly to the controversy surrounding Sandilands and Henderson. Regional revenue also dipped by $5.3 million, Stephenson noted, though it did not face the same brand safety-driven client exodus.

Stephenson framed the network’s decision to cut ties with the pair as a proactive step to protect ARN’s brand reputation, and he struck an optimistic tone on future revenue recovery. “Over time, we expect a significant percentage of the $26 million of revenue that was lost last year because of brand safety concerns to return, improving both our metro radio revenue and revenue share,” he said. While the board declined to comment in detail on the active legal dispute, Stephenson confirmed that the departure of the high-profile hosts could pave the way for the return of former advertisers that had withdrawn their spending.

ARN chairman Hamish McLennan later outlined the timeline of events that led to the show’s cancellation to shareholders, referencing the legal claims brought by Quasar Media (Sandilands’ company) and Henderson Media. McLennan confirmed that an on-air incident involving the two hosts took place on February 20, 2026. After the incident, Henderson took a paid leave of absence supported full by ARN management. On February 26, 2026, Henderson notified the network that she could no longer continue working alongside Sandilands, stating that direct contact with him had become untenable.

“The Company considered this a repudiation of her contract, on the basis that it was not possible for her to perform her core contractual requirement to deliver the ‘Kyle and Jackie O show’ and, as a result, her contract was terminated,” McLennan explained. Sandilands, who was ousted alongside Henderson, has since launched a lawsuit against his former employer ARN Media.

The network’s poor financial performance over the past year has hit shareholder value hard: ARN’s share price has plummeted 51% over the last 12 months to trade at just 26 cents, a drop that became a key point of criticism from investors at the AGM. Shareholders openly questioned the board about the ongoing share price decline and the missteps that led to the loss of one of radio’s most popular shows, paired with the costly pending litigation.

The Australian equities market has booked its most robust single-day gain since mid-April, fueled by market optimism triggered by new comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump that eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Both the benchmark ASX 200 and the broader All Ordinaries notched double-digit percentage gains, alongside a four-year high for the Australian dollar, as leading banking and mining stocks powered the market uptick.

On the day, the ASX 200 climbed 112.10 points, a 1.30% jump that closed the index at 8796.60, while the All Ordinaries rose 112.80 points (1.27%) to settle at 9016.10. The Australian dollar also advanced to 72.47 U.S. cents, its highest level in four years. Despite the headline market rally, only five of the ASX’s 11 industry sectors finished the trading day in positive territory, with the country’s largest retail banks and major mining operators leading the upward charge.

Market analysts attributed the broad positive momentum to Trump’s announcement that he would pause Operation Freedom, a planned naval blockade of the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is one of the world’s most vital chokepoints for global energy shipments, and a blockade had threatened to disrupt international oil supplies and trigger a major global economic shock.

“Keeping the Strait open is critical, because a closure would stifle global energy supply and raise the risk of the global economy falling off a steep, damaging supply cliff,” noted Capital.com analyst Tim Rodda. “Still, markets are holding out hope that this worst-case outcome will be avoided — and crucially, that it won’t erode the exceptional corporate profits that have lifted Wall Street to recent record highs.”

Trump’s comments pulled global oil prices down 2% to $107 U.S. dollars per barrel, a shift that delivered immediate benefits to Australia’s major mining firms, which count energy costs among their largest operating expenses. On the ASX, BHP shares rose 3.05% to close at $56.39, Rio Tinto gained 2.30% to settle at $174.60, and Fortescue Metals added 3.15% to finish at $20.65. The falling oil prices hit Australia’s domestic energy sector, however: Woodside Petroleum shares slumped 2.66% to $31.84, Santos dipped 0.25% to $7.89, and Ampol fell 1.24% to close at $35.02.

Easing geopolitical tensions also lifted gold prices, which pushed above $4600 U.S. dollars per ounce, according to Vivek Dhar, head of commodities and sustainability at Commonwealth Bank. Dhar explained that gold futures have moved inversely to the intensity of Middle East tensions since the outbreak of regional conflict in late February, a dynamic that may seem counterintuitive to many investors.

“Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven asset, so many would expect prices to rise when tensions spike, but the historical correlation between broad market risk and gold prices is actually very weak,” Dhar added.

Among the country’s major banking stocks, which also posted strong gains, Commonwealth Bank climbed 2.96% to $177.98, Westpac rose 3.48% to $38.94, National Australia Bank gained 2.77% to $40.03, and ANZ rose 3.12% to close at $37.07. Judo Bank also notched a 3.55% gain to $1.46 after the regional lender confirmed it remains on track to hit its full-year pre-tax profit guidance of $180 million to $190 million.

Not all stocks gained ground on the day, however. Leading consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi saw its shares drop 6.28% to $72.98 after the company warned of significant rising component costs and ongoing stock availability shortages. The firm did report modest comparative sales growth for the March quarter: 4% growth for its core brand, and 2.5% growth for its subsidiary The Good Guys.

One of the day’s biggest single-stock gains came from infrastructure investor Infratil, whose shares surged 14.95% to $12.07 after the company announced that its 49.8%-owned data center subsidiary CDC had secured Australia’s largest ever data center contract, a 555MW deal that will drive years of future revenue growth.

The Australian dollar has surged to a four-year peak against the U.S. dollar, a rally driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate increase that has created clear winners and losers across the domestic economy, from cross-border travelers to mortgage-holding households.

After the RBA implemented a 25-basis point rate hike on Tuesday, pushing the official cash rate to 4.35%, the Australian dollar climbed to its highest level against the greenback since June 2020. As of this reporting, one Australian dollar purchases 72.48 U.S. cents, marking a significant upward shift for the commodity-linked currency.

Global X investment strategist Billy Leung explained that the Australian dollar’s momentum stems from the country’s unusual position as an outlier in global monetary policy. While most major developed economies have paused rate hikes and begun pricing in future cuts, Australia continues to tighten borrowing costs due to an unresolved inflation crisis that has persisted longer than many policymakers and analysts expected.

Unlike peer economies that cut rates more aggressively and held them lower for longer in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia now faces persistent domestic inflation pressures that have forced the central bank to act even as global inflation cools. The RBA could not look past the oil price volatility triggered by escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which have pushed crude prices above $110 a barrel and added to existing inflationary headwinds.

Current economic data backs the RBA’s hawkish stance: trimmed mean inflation is projected to rise back to 3.8% by June, real household spending grew 0.7% in the first quarter, and the national labor market has remained unexpectedly resilient. Tuesday’s rate increase marked the third consecutive hike in the RBA’s current tightening cycle, and opinion among economic experts remains divided on whether additional rate increases will be needed to bring inflation under control.

The RBA board’s vote on the hike reflected that division: eight of nine members supported lifting the cash rate, while one member advocated for holding rates steady at the previous 4.10% level. In a post-meeting statement, the board emphasized that inflation at 4.6% remains far above the central bank’s 2-3% target range, and left the door open for future policy tightening. The board added that it will closely monitor incoming economic data and shifting global economic conditions to guide future decisions.

“Having raised the cash rate three times, monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment,” the statement read. “It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.”

Leung added that another key factor driving the Australian dollar’s rally is the eroding yield advantage of the U.S. dollar. With the U.S. Federal Reserve holding rates steady and market expectations building for upcoming rate cuts, global investors searching for higher yield have increasingly turned to the few developed markets like Australia that are still offering attractive carry returns.

When combined with elevated global oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, the conditions for a rally by Australia’s commodity-linked currency, backed by a hawkish central bank, are nearly ideal, Leung noted. He also clarified a common misperception about the rally: the Australian dollar’s gain is not a sign of exceptional strength in the domestic Australian economy.

“The Aussie is not rallying because the domestic economy is booming,” Leung said. “It is rallying because the inflation problem most of the developed world believes has been dealt with remains very much alive in Australia, and the RBA has chosen to confront it directly.”

For consumers, the stronger dollar delivers immediate benefits for two key groups: Australians planning overseas travel, who will see their buying power increase when exchanging currency, and domestic importers, who will pay less for goods sourced from overseas. The flip side of the rate hike that drove the rally, however, is higher monthly mortgage repayments for millions of Australian households, adding to ongoing cost-of-living pressures across the country.