Germany’s political landscape has been roiled in recent weeks by growing uncertainty over the future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), who is facing mounting pressure over plummeting poll numbers and the historic surge of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). In a surprising show of solidarity, eight state premiers from Merz’s own party have publicly thrown their support behind the embattled leader, as internal debates over a potential leadership shakeup intensify ahead of two critical state elections this weekend.
The public statement from the state leaders, which represent regions across Germany including Schleswig-Holstein, Saxony, Hesse and North Rhine-Westphalia, argues that restoring public trust in the CDU depends on policy action rather than internal personnel fights. “Now more than ever, Germany’s political landscape needs stability,” the premiers wrote, adding that the country continues to require “a stable and effective federal government with its own majority in the Bundestag”. This endorsement comes shortly after Markus Söder, the powerful Bavarian premier and leader of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), also reaffirmed his backing for Merz.
Merz, who has only served as chancellor for 16 months after a years-long bid to take the country’s top office, is currently grappling with approval ratings that have hit historic lows. A recent poll from major German tabloid Bild found that just 14% of voters believe Merz is the right person for the chancellorship. His political troubles deepened earlier this month, when the CDU tumbled to a distant second place behind the AfD in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The far-right party captured 43.8% of the vote, compared to just 17.2% for the CDU, marking the first time since World War II that a far-right party has come within striking distance of controlling a German state government. Though the AfD fell three seats short of an outright majority and all major mainstream parties have ruled out forming a coalition with it, the result sent shockwaves through Germany’s established political order and reignited months-old rumors of a so-called “Kanzlertausch”, or chancellor swap.
In the wake of the Saxony-Anhalt result, Merz launched a forceful counterattack, labeling the AfD a “destructive force” and arguing that the party’s hardline migration policy amounts to an “ethnic cleansing” of skilled workers. The AfD responded by filing a defamation complaint against the chancellor, calling his comments “baseless” and “disgusting”.
All eyes are now turning to September 15, when voters head to the polls for two more state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, widely seen as a make-or-break test of Merz’s leadership. Polling suggests the AfD is poised for further gains in both contests, though the race in Berlin is far closer than the blowout in Saxony-Anhalt: the CDU and left-wing Die Linke are neck-and-neck for first place, with the AfD and Green Party trailing closely behind. In Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, the AfD holds a lead over the center-left SPD but is still expected to fall well short of a majority. For Merz, the worst possible outcome would see the CDU lose its hold on power in Berlin and fail to even clear the electoral threshold to enter the state parliament in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, a result that would almost certainly amplify calls for his resignation.
Unnamed senior CDU sources have confirmed to Reuters that party officials will gather on election night to coordinate the party’s response to the results, regardless of the outcome. While speculation has swirled for months over a potential leadership challenge, German political convention rarely sees mid-term chancellorship replacements, and no sitting CDU politician has yet publicly come forward to challenge Merz. Still, several names have been widely floated in German media as potential successors, including Söder, North Rhine-Westphalia premier Hendrik Wüst, and German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt.
Political observers note that Merz’s current struggles are the latest chapter in a long, bumpy path to the chancellorship. Early in his tenure, he earned international praise for rallying cross-party support for a massive €500bn ($547bn) national defence infrastructure fund, with his straight-talking approach and focus on European security winning him plaudits on the global stage. But his rise to power was marked by setbacks: it took him three attempts just to win the CDU leadership, and he made history as the first post-war German chancellor candidate to lose an initial parliamentary vote for the position, despite having a nominal coalition majority with the SPD. Political analysts say this history of struggling to win over even his own party colleagues suggests he is unlikely to step down voluntarily from the role he has pursued for decades.









