Released on April 20, 2026, the latest China Agricultural Outlook (2026–35) report has laid out a clear trajectory for the country’s agricultural sector over the coming decade, projecting modest growth in domestic grain output this year alongside a rare drop in imports of key bulk agricultural commodities such as soybeans.
According to the report, which is compiled annually by the agricultural market analysis and early-warning team of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China’s total grain output is set to reach 716 million metric tons in 2026, marking a 0.2 percent year-on-year increase. Driven by ongoing gains in crop productivity, national average grain yield is expected to cross the 6,000 kilograms per hectare threshold this year, while output of oil-bearing crops will climb 2.6 percent to hit 42.04 million tons.
“Large-scale improvements in crop productivity will continue to support stable grain supply,” noted Xu Shiwei, director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ key laboratory for agricultural monitoring and early warning technology. This domestic production growth is translating to a shifting trade landscape: the report forecasts a 6.1 percent year-on-year decline in soybean imports for 2026, the first such drop recorded in recent years. Other major agricultural imports are also set to shrink, with pork imports projected to fall 8.2 percent and dairy imports down 4.1 percent. At the same time, exports of China’s competitive high-value agricultural products are expanding, with 2026 vegetable exports forecast to rise 6.4 percent and fruit exports up 5 percent.
Even with these projected import declines, the report emphasizes that global agricultural markets will remain an important complementary source of supply for China. Imports of products such as poultry, for example, are still expected to climb this year.
The report also frames the strengthening of domestic production as a strategic response to growing global uncertainty. Li Ganqiong, head of the agricultural monitoring and early-warning research center at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed to rising geopolitical risks, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, that have driven up global energy prices, fertilizer costs and international shipping expenses. These disruptions have increased volatility in global agricultural production and trade, creating heightened risks to global food security, Li explained. Strengthening domestic output, he added, remains a critical buffer against these external shocks.
Looking ahead to 2035, the report projects steady long-term growth in China’s grain output, which is forecast to reach 733 million tons by 2030 and 753 million tons by 2035. Over the coming decade, average grain yield per hectare is expected to increase by 6.3 percent. National grain consumption is projected to grow slowly before peaking at 842 million tons around 2032, after which it will stabilize and see a gradual decline.
As domestic productivity and international competitiveness of China’s agricultural sector continue to improve, the country’s reliance on imports for major agricultural commodities will gradually decrease, Xu said. By 2035, total grain imports are projected to fall to 115 million tons, a 25.5 percent drop from the 2023–2025 average. Soybean imports will decline to 82.55 million tons over the same period, a 21.5 percent reduction from recent averages.
The report also lays out long-term projections for other key agricultural sectors. China’s dairy industry will see steady expansion, with domestic milk production forecast to reach 45.07 million tons by 2030 and 51.17 million tons by 2035, an average annual growth rate of 2 percent, driven by rising consumer demand for fresh milk and growing use of cheese and butter in processed foods. The pork sector, by contrast, will see a gradual production decline over the next decade as it transitions from rapid expansion to a focus on higher-quality, more efficient production, with output reaching 55.11 million tons by 2035, an average annual decline of roughly 0.5 percent.
First launched in 2014, the annual China Agricultural Outlook report has become a foundational reference for tracking Chinese agricultural trends, supporting market forecasting and informing national agricultural policy planning, the ministry noted.