Iran faces a critical leadership vacuum following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during ongoing military operations by the United States and Israel. Opposition channel IranIntl reports that the Assembly of Experts has elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s eldest son, as successor, though official confirmation remains pending.
The constitutional succession mechanism has been activated through the Assembly of Experts—88 Islamic scholars rigorously vetted for loyalty to the regime. This body now faces the extraordinary challenge of selecting leadership during active warfare, with the explicit goal of US-Israeli operations being regime change in Iran.
Potential candidates include Mojtaba Khamenei, who has recently increased his public visibility; Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder; and Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council with significant religious and political standing. The unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a 2024 helicopter accident eliminated what many considered the most likely successor.
An interim council consisting of Arafi, moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, and hardline judiciary head Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i is currently governing. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to be driving military strategy, closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks on neighboring states hosting US bases.
These aggressive actions have damaged Iran’s recently improved relations with Arab neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, with whom diplomatic ties were only restored in 2023. Gulf Cooperation Council members now reportedly consider abandoning neutrality and striking back against Iranian attacks.
The regime’s survival strategy appears to focus on enduring aerial strikes while inflicting sufficient economic and military damage to undermine US resolve. Tehran calculates that prolonged conflict will demonstrate the impracticality of regime change, potentially causing the Trump administration to reconsider its military campaign.