SAO PAULO — On Saturday, Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro, eldest son of imprisoned former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, was officially tapped as the Liberal Party’s 2026 presidential candidate, launching his challenge to incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against a backdrop of fractured alliances, internal party friction, and self-inflicted campaign setbacks.
Held at Sao Paulo’s Arena Mercado Livre Pacaembu, the nominating convention drew just 500 attendees, and the list of no-shows underscored the depth of challenges facing the 45-year-old candidate. Most notably absent was Michelle Bolsonaro, Flávio’s popular stepmother and a key mobilizer for the party’s critical evangelical voter base, with public tensions between the pair having erupted in recent weeks. Few of Brazil’s top national political figures made an appearance, highlighting Flávio’s struggle to build the broad centrist coalition that supported his father’s 2018 presidential bid. As of the convention, the nominee had also not yet secured a running mate, after high-profile negotiations to recruit former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina collapsed.
Cristina’s Popular Party, which held a key congressional bloc and was a core partner in Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, had initially planned not to field its own presidential candidate, making its public distancing from Flávio Bolsonaro all the more notable. Despite the setbacks, some right-wing lawmakers frame the fractured coalition as a potential strategic advantage. “That’s not necessarily bad for us,” lawmaker Zé Trovao told reporters ahead of the convention. “We can run a more ideologically consistent campaign, and when election time comes, it will be them coming to us, forced to accept our policy agenda if they want to unseat Lula and the Workers’ Party.”
Flávio Bolsonaro did score a symbolic win ahead of the convention, securing a pre-recorded address from Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei, and he is reportedly in line to earn endorsements from multiple former officials of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. But political observers note that the gaps in his support far outweigh these small wins.
Many of Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign struggles have stemmed from self-inflicted missteps. Support for his candidacy began eroding in May, when he admitted to soliciting millions of dollars in donations from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to fund a biographical documentary about his father, a revelation that alienated many of his existing allies. A subsequent trip to Washington D.C. to meet with U.S. officials, during which he expected to secure an endorsement from Trump, ended in political damage: many Brazilian voters, business leaders, and politicians now hold Flávio responsible for the Biden administration’s imposition of new 37.5% tariffs on Brazilian exports that took effect Friday.
A further public blow came during the recent World Cup, when Michelle Bolsonaro released a public video accusing Flávio of speaking to her disrespectfully during a phone call. The rift split the party’s base, as Michelle remains one of the most popular figures among evangelical and conservative voters. Most recently, Flávio drew widespread condemnation from election officials for repeating long-debunked false claims about the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting system, echoing the same claims that led Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court to bar his father from holding public office and convict him of conspiracy to overthrow the government following the 2022 election riot.
Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for his role in the 2022 coup attempt and is under house arrest alongside Michelle, though the pair have publicly mended their rift in the final days leading up to the convention. Flávio extended a public apology during a live broadcast, claiming he and his father are targets of “disproportionate political persecution.” Michelle accepted the apology Friday, framing the reconciliation as a step toward uniting conservatives ahead of the October general election. “Let’s sit down, let’s talk, let’s sort out our differences, and together we will build a great army of people working to rescue our Brazil,” she said in a public video statement.
Rio de Janeiro-based political consultant Thomas Traumann notes that Flávio Bolsonaro’s path to winning over moderate voters has narrowed sharply since he launched his candidacy in December. When he first entered the race, Traumann explained, Flávio positioned himself as a moderate alternative to his father, highlighting his support for COVID-19 vaccines and framing himself as a consensus builder. “He has already lost voters who oppose the Workers’ Party but lean toward moderate policies,” Traumann said. “Now he is relying entirely on his radical core base, and his immediate priority is stopping even those voters from abandoning his campaign.”
Incumbent President Lula, 80, will formally confirm his reelection bid at a Workers’ Party nominating convention scheduled for August 2, also to be held in Sao Paulo — one of the most competitive battleground states in October’s nationwide vote.









