标签： Europe

As Serbia heads to the polls for snap parliamentary elections this Sunday, a grassroots, student-born political movement known as “The Student List” has emerged as the most formidable challenge to Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) since the party swept into power in 2012. Placed third on the national ballot, the movement has turned a cardiologist and Novi Sad University professor, Ilija Srdanović, into its public face: the 60-something academic arrives for media interviews on a motorbike clad in a bright fluorescent yellow jacket emblazoned with pro-student slogans, a deliberate contrast to the carefully staged public image of the long-ruling political establishment.

The origins of The Student List stretch back nearly two years to the deadly Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse that killed 16 people, a tragedy tied to a flagship infrastructure project under Vučić’s watch: the high-speed Belgrade-Budapest railway line. Outraged by allegations of systemic corruption that they say led directly to the preventable deaths, young Serbian activists launched months of sustained anti-corruption demonstrations across the country. Rejecting traditional top-down political structures, student-led assemblies at Serbia’s major universities selected 250 non-partisan candidates with no prior political experience to run for parliament, ranging from leading academics and professional athletes to economists and engineers. Srdanović, who was chosen to head the nationwide ballot, emphasizes his role as a supportive ally rather than a leader: “It is absolutely normal to stand with my students to help them in their fair struggle.” Notably, the movement has no formal hierarchy or designated prime ministerial candidate even in the event of a landslide win, a structure unprecedented in Serbia’s post-democratic transition political history.

For Vučić, who has rotated through the top roles of deputy prime minister, prime minister and president over 12 years of unbroken SNS rule, the snap election was called after he formally stepped down from the presidency last month to run for a new term as prime minister. For years, state-aligned domestic media has cultivated his image as an unchallenged, decisive national leader, and he retains a loyal base of supporters who credit his administration with a decade of steady economic growth and sweeping nationwide infrastructure upgrades. His campaign has framed the entire student-led opposition as a foreign-funded plot designed to destabilize and dismantle the Serbian state, urging crowds at his final rallies to “always protect and defend” the nation against purported outside interference.

Independent election observers have repeatedly flagged systemic structural advantages enjoyed by the ruling SNS, including pervasive pro-government media bias and the widespread misuse of state public resources for campaign purposes, issues formally documented by the International Election Observation Mission following the 2023 parliamentary vote. A pro-SNS encampment has operated 24/7 for the past 18 months in the central Belgrade park between the National Assembly and Presidency buildings, with repeated reports of camp residents assaulting journalists and barring ordinary citizens from the public space — a site Vučić has lauded as a “symbol of resistance” for free expression.

On the international stage, Vučić has leaned into his long-documented balancing act between competing global powers, warning voters that a Student List victory would force Serbia to sever its long-standing close diplomatic and economic ties with Russia and China, both of which refuse to recognize Kosovo’s unilateral independence, and potentially impose EU-mandated sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict. He has repeatedly attacked the opposition for refusing to give a clear public answer on their foreign policy stances, urging voters to choose a proven leader who prioritizes Serbian national interests.

With independent public polling scarce in the final stretch of the campaign, election analysts are forecasting an extraordinarily tight race. The two sides’ closing rallies laid bare their starkly contrasting governing visions: Vučić addressed a packed Belgrade Arena as the sole featured speaker, reinforcing his brand as a singular, strong national leader, while across the Sava River, an estimated 150,000 Student List supporters packed Belgrade’s Slavija Square to hear speeches from a diverse lineup of students and non-partisan candidates. For the first time in over a decade, Serbian voters face a clear choice between a centralized, decades-long ruling administration and a decentralized, grassroots movement promising to restore core civil liberties, independent institutions and rule of law that activists argue have been systematically eroded over the SNS’s 12 years in power.

For decades through the Cold War and beyond, Western diplomats based in Moscow served as critical bridges between competing powers, defusing escalating tensions even when bilateral relations hit their lowest points. But three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the role of Western envoys in Russia has been transformed into one of the most dangerous and isolating assignments in global diplomacy, according to firsthand accounts from five senior former diplomats who served in Moscow in the post-invasion era. In exclusive interviews with the BBC, these envoys – including former U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy and former French Ambassador Pierre Lévy – detail a surveillance and pressure campaign that harkens back to the darkest days of the Cold War, while bringing new logistical and psychological challenges that many say outstrip even the most high-risk postings around the world.

In the wake of a recent arrest of a Ukrainian national suspected of conducting espionage on behalf of Russia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has issued a stark warning that hostile intelligence operations from Moscow continue to operate at a persistent, high level across German territory. The arrest marks the latest in a string of apparent foreign spying cases uncovered in Germany so far this year, as the country remains a top European military backer of Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion that began in 2022.

According to Germany’s Federal Prosecutor General’s Office, the suspect, identified only as Vadym Y. under German privacy regulations, has been in communication with Russian intelligence services via an intermediary since at least July 2025. Prosecutors allege the suspect gathered sensitive information focused on German production of armored vehicles, ammunition, and explosive materials — all critical categories of military support that Berlin has provided to Kyiv throughout the ongoing conflict. The suspect is scheduled to appear before an investigating judge on Friday to answer to the charges.

Merz characterized the successful exposure of this new operation as a victory for German security services, but cautioned against overconfidence in a statement delivered on the sidelines of a conference in Montenegro on Thursday. “Let us not delude ourselves — the activities of Russian intelligence services in Germany remain at a consistently high level,” the chancellor said, adding that more espionage cases are likely to emerge in the coming months and years.

This latest arrest is far from an isolated incident. In January 2025, German authorities detained a woman in Berlin on suspicion of collecting intelligence for a Russian embassy intelligence officer. Just weeks later, a Romanian woman and a second Ukrainian man were taken into custody, accused of spying on a private operator that supplies drones from Germany to Ukrainian forces. Most recently, earlier this month, former head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) August Hanning was arrested on charges of espionage, treason, and unauthorized procurement of classified information for an undisclosed foreign power. Hanning led the BND from 1998 to 2005, and had worked as a private security consultant following his retirement from government service. A second former BND employee, identified only as Manfred D, was also arrested in connection with the Hanning case, accused of selling roughly 2,000 classified documents to Hanning in exchange for financial compensation.

Tensions over Russian hostile activity in Germany have escalated sharply in recent months. Last September, German officials publicly accused Russia of launching an explosive-laden drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport, an allegation that Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed as fabricated planted evidence.

Earlier this month, Merz reaffirmed Germany’s deep security and defense cooperation with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, with the two leaders agreeing to expand joint efforts to counter hybrid threats and hostile state activity targeting both nations. The ongoing wave of espionage arrests underscores the growing challenge European security agencies face as they work to disrupt foreign intelligence operations amid heightened geopolitical tensions linked to the war in Ukraine.

As Serbia enters the final stretch of campaigning for Sunday’s snap parliamentary election, mass rallies have erupted across the country, framing the vote as a defining judgment on the Balkan nation’s future after 12 years of populist rule under Aleksandar Vučić.

What began as a small, justice-focused demonstration two years ago has grown into the most formidable threat Vučić has faced during his time in power. The movement traces its origins to a fatal tragedy in November 2024, when a concrete canopy collapsed outside the main train station in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second-largest city, killing 16 people. The disaster quickly became a symbol of deep-seated government corruption and negligence, with critics tying the shoddy renovation project directly to Vučić, who had positioned himself as the public face of the work.

What started as weekly campus protests demanding accountability soon expanded into a nationwide grassroots movement, drawing in discontented Serbs from all walks of life: farmers, judges, actors, and professionals joined young demonstrators to challenge the status quo. The spontaneous, leaderless movement organized itself through decentralized student assemblies, rapidly gaining traction to the point that Serbia’s sitting prime minister resigned within weeks of the protests going national. A massive rally in Belgrade in March 2025 cemented the movement’s position as a major political force, culminating in the formation of the electoral bloc “Student List-Students Win” to contest Sunday’s vote.

In a striking departure from traditional party politics, the movement – driven overwhelmingly by young Serbian students – does not run a single student candidate. Instead, it has assembled a cross-section of respected public figures to stand for office, led by Novi Sad cardiologist and professor Ilija Srdanović. Other high-profile candidates include former basketball star Dejan Bodiroga, acclaimed actor Tihomir Stanić, and former National Bank of Serbia governor Dejan Šoškić. Speaking to supporters during a march to central Belgrade, Srdanović framed the moment as a turning point for Serbia, saying “The energy is unstoppable. We are rewriting history.” Several established opposition parties have stood aside to throw their full support behind the student-led bloc, consolidating anti-government sentiment into a single competing force.

The movement’s 11-point policy platform centers on root-and-branch reform to overhaul Serbia’s current political system. Key pledges include creating a specialized anti-corruption police unit to prosecute corrupt officials, purging the interior ministry of figures linked to organized crime or the crackdown on protests, breaking state control of public media to create an independent, balanced press, and ending the practice of appointing ruling party loyalists to lead public enterprises.

For Vučić, who has held either the presidency or prime ministership since 2014, this election marks a new political chapter. Term limits bar him from running for a third presidential term, so he is leading his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) with the goal of returning to the prime ministership he left in 2017. Vučić has framed the student-led challenge as a foreign plot, doubling down on unsubstantiated claims that the movement is a front for “great powers” seeking to overthrow his government, while vowing to end what he calls the politicization of Serbia’s education system. He has also denied accusations of systemic corruption and improper political influence over media.

Vučić has maintained a delicate diplomatic balancing act during his tenure: he has kept Serbia on track for European Union membership candidacy, while refusing to join Western sanctions on Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. His government recently drew sharp condemnation from the EU after multiple cabinet ministers attended the Belgrade funeral of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić, in what the bloc called an act of glorification of war crimes.

Foreign policy analysts note that this grassroots movement presents an unprecedented challenge to Vučić’s grip on power. “The students have been able to mobilize the masses in a way traditional opposition parties have never managed,” explained Helena Ivanov, a researcher at the London-based Henry Jackson Society, speaking from Belgrade. “Vučić has won every election Serbia has held since the introduction of multi-party politics, so defeating him will not be simple – but this time, he will not have an easy ride either.”

Sunday’s vote will see 6.45 million registered voters select from 18 electoral lists competing for 250 parliamentary seats, allocated via proportional representation in a single national constituency, with a 3% threshold to gain seats. Only seven lists are fielding the full slate of 250 candidates. Voting will open at 7 a.m. local time (6 a.m. GMT) and close at 8 p.m.

While international observers from the Council of Europe are on the ground monitoring the vote, concerns over electoral fairness have already been raised. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has described a “tense and divisive electoral climate” that has taken on a “referendum-like atmosphere. While Serbia’s election commission maintains the vote will be free and confidential, independent domestic election watchdog CRTA has documented widespread irregularities: threats and physical violence against opposition activists, unlawful surveillance of campaigners, and systemic bias that sees state institutions from national ministries to local governments participate in “electoral engineering” to benefit the ruling party. The watchdog also found that nearly 75% of national television news coverage is dedicated to ruling party representatives, leaving little room for opposition voices. The European Centre for Press and Media Freedom has recorded 160 separate attacks on media outlets and journalists in Serbia so far this year, underscoring the tense environment ahead of polling day.