标签: Asia

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  • Sherpa guide missing for a week on Mount Everest rescued while crawling to base camp

    Sherpa guide missing for a week on Mount Everest rescued while crawling to base camp

    KATMANDU, Nepal — In an extraordinary survival story that has shocked the mountaineering community, a veteran Sherpa mountain guide has been recovered alive from the slopes of Mount Everest seven days after he went missing during the closing days of this year’s record-breaking climbing season, rescue officials confirmed Thursday. A rescue helicopter was transporting the guide to a Kathmandu hospital for urgent evaluation and care Thursday afternoon.

    The guide, 52-year-old Dawa Sherpa, was last spotted on May 29 as he descended the world’s highest peak alongside his Polish climbing client. While the client successfully made it to Everest’s base camp to conclude the expedition, Dawa never arrived. The pair was among the final groups of climbers on the mountain as the 2024 climbing season wrapped up, and the fixed safety routes that support summit attempts were already being taken down, leaving the mountain largely unoccupied for the coming off-season.

    Pemba Sherpa, a representative of 8K Expeditions, the adventure company that was in charge of coordinating the search operation for Dawa, shared that the missing guide was discovered by a mountain cleaning team early Thursday morning. At the time of his discovery, he was slowly crawling down a snow-covered slope in the Khumbu Icefall region, located just above base camp, in one of the most dangerous sections of the entire Everest climbing route.

    Shortly after being spotted, rescuers carried Dawa down to a secure lower elevation at base camp, where he was immediately given food, water, and initial first aid to address his week of exposure to extreme high-altitude conditions. A dedicated rescue helicopter was deployed to the site within hours to airlift him to a specialized hospital in Kathmandu, the Nepalese capital.

    Despite Dawa going missing a full week before his discovery, search operations were delayed in launching, according to local expedition officials. An initial aerial search carried out by helicopter earlier this week had failed to locate the guide, leaving search teams holding out little hope of finding him alive.

    The team that made the life-saving discovery is part of the Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee, a Nepalese organization that manages Everest climbing infrastructure each season. At the start of every climbing window, the committee installs fixed ladders and safety ropes across the mountain’s icy routes to support climbers; when the season ends, it removes all equipment to minimize environmental impact and cleans up tons of waste left by expeditions each year.

    Dawa hails from Okhaldhunga, a mountain town located south of Everest, and works for Himalayan Traverse, a small adventure outfitter based in Kathmandu. This year’s climbing season on Everest made history as the busiest on record, with more than 1,000 climbers and their guides successfully reaching the 8,849-meter (29,032-foot) summit throughout May.

    The 2024 season also got off to a late start: a massive unstable ice block formed on the route just above base camp, requiring two weeks of intensive work to clear before climbing could resume. The first successful recorded ascent of Everest was completed on the same date Dawa was last seen this year — May 29 — in 1953, by New Zealand mountaineer Edmund Hillary and Sherpa guide Tenzing Norgay.

  • US House approves measure to restrain Trump action in Iran

    US House approves measure to restrain Trump action in Iran

    WASHINGTON — In a landmark bipartisan rebuke of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a binding resolution on Wednesday that would compel President Donald Trump to pull all U.S. military forces out of the ongoing war with Iran and require explicit congressional authorization for any future military action against the country.

    The final vote tally stood at 215 in favor to 208 opposed, with four House Republicans breaking ranks to join every Democratic member in supporting the measure. This vote marks the most significant pushback against Trump’s management of the months-long conflict to date. The war has already resulted in the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. military service members, claimed the lives of thousands of Iranian civilians, and wreaked havoc on global commodity supply chains. Blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint, have disrupted international flows of both oil and fertilizer, driving up global market prices.

    This resolution, which leverages Congress’s constitutional War Powers authority to limit executive branch ability to initiate or escalate military engagements, narrowly failed to pass the House just one month prior, deadlocking at a 212-212 tie vote.

    While parallel measures in the U.S. Senate have previously failed to advance, the political landscape shifted recently after Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy lost his party’s primary election. Cassidy has since joined Senate Democrats and a small group of fellow Senate Republicans to advance the Iran War Powers resolution, though a final floor vote on full passage has not yet been scheduled.

    The House resolution was sponsored by Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the ranking Democratic member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. In a separate legislative action, Michigan Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib has introduced an additional War Powers resolution that would force the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Lebanon, where Israel – backed by U.S. weapons and funding – has launched a large-scale military offensive.

    The passage of the Iran resolution, achieved even in a House controlled by the Republican Party, underscores the growing intraparty dissent against President Trump’s policies among congressional Republicans.

    In a separate development highlighting rifts within the party, Senate Republicans have rejected a Trump administration proposal to create a $1.8 billion compensation fund for individuals who claim they were wrongfully prosecuted by the U.S. Department of Justice. The fund would have covered individuals convicted for their role in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol who were later pardoned by Trump. Following the opposition, the administration pulled back from the proposal, after disputes over the fund derailed progress on broader legislation to fund immigration and deportation operations for the remainder of Trump’s second term.

  • Beijing bans 4 New Zealand lawmakers from entering China because they visited Taiwan

    Beijing bans 4 New Zealand lawmakers from entering China because they visited Taiwan

    In a unprecedented diplomatic move marking a sharp escalation of Beijing’s sovereignty pressure over Taiwan, China has barred four New Zealand parliamentarians from entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau for 12 months, and demanded the lawmakers issue a formal apology for their parliamentary trip to the self-governing island, multiple official sources confirmed to the Associated Press Thursday.

    This sanction marks the first time New Zealand elected officials have been targeted by Beijing for punitive measures over engagement with Taiwan, although lawmakers from other countries have previously faced similar restrictions for contacts with Taipei. For years, Beijing has ramped up diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan, the democratically ruled island that China claims as an inalienable part of its sovereign territory.

    The four New Zealand lawmakers traveled to Taipei for a parliamentary visit back in May, a trip that follows a long-standing tradition of New Zealand parliamentary delegations visiting Taiwan “for decades,” according to a spokesperson for New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters. Two of the four lawmakers who were reached by the AP this week have flatly rejected Beijing’s apology demand, while attempts to contact the other two for comment were not immediately successful.

    Beijing’s position holds that Taiwan, as a Chinese region, has no authority to conduct official foreign relations, and that visits by sitting legislators from countries that maintain formal diplomatic ties with Beijing violate China’s core sovereignty claims. In an official statement posted to its website Thursday, the Chinese Embassy in Wellington clarified its stance, noting: “China has consistently opposed visits to China’s Taiwan region by members of the legislatures of countries that have established diplomatic relations with China, including New Zealand, and this case is no exception. The New Zealand side should not be surprised.”

    The details of the travel ban and apology demand were outlined in emails from New Zealand’s Parliamentary Service to the affected lawmakers, which were reviewed by the AP. The correspondence confirms the ban could be lifted only if the legislators comply with the apology requirement.

    The New Zealand government has pushed back against the measure, announcing it will formally convey its concern over the travel restrictions to Chinese authorities. A spokesperson for Peters emphasized that the May visit was “not inconsistent with New Zealand’s One China policy,” the long-standing framework under which Wellington acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is a Chinese province. Like most nations around the globe, New Zealand does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. New Zealand’s parliamentary system allows individual legislators to make independent decisions about joining international travel delegations, which typically cross party lines to include representatives from multiple major political groups.

    Affected lawmakers have publicly pushed back against Beijing’s action. Laura McClure, a legislator from New Zealand’s libertarian ACT Party, called the demand for an apology “frankly insulting” and confirmed she would not meet the requirement. Duncan Webb, a lawmaker from the center-left Labour Party, echoed the sentiment, noting that New Zealand upholds democratic norms and the right of its elected officials to engage with international partners. “If the cost of doing that is to be excluded from China for a year, I will pay that price,” Webb said in an emailed statement.

    The diplomatic dispute comes at a time when bilateral relations between New Zealand and China have otherwise remained broadly positive in recent years. China holds the position of New Zealand’s largest trading partner, and New Zealand made history as the first Western nation to sign a free trade agreement with Beijing decades ago.

    Neighboring Australia has also joined New Zealand in expressing disapproval of the measure. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong told a Senate committee in Canberra Thursday that her government would also raise concerns about the travel ban with Beijing and China’s diplomatic mission in Canberra. “We agree with the principle expressed by New Zealand that members of parliament, including the Australian Parliament, are free to make their own decisions about their travel independent of government,” Wong said. “Placing pressure on parliamentarians is not appropriate,” she added.

    Associated Press reporters Huizhong Wu in Bangkok and Rod McGuirk in Melbourne contributed reporting to this article.

  • Satellite pix said to show Israel’s overt Gaza territorial goals

    Satellite pix said to show Israel’s overt Gaza territorial goals

    Newly released satellite analysis from Al Jazeera has uncovered a significant violation of the 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement: Israel has been quietly constructing dozens of permanent, heavily fortified military outposts across Gaza’s internal perimeter, rather than withdrawing its forces as required by the U.S.-brokered truce.

    Al Jazeera’s Open Source Unit conducted a full review of satellite data collected through May 2026, confirming that 40 completed Israel Defense Forces (IDF) bases have been erected since the October 2025 ceasefire took effect, with one additional outpost still under construction. Independent regional observers warn that this network of permanent infrastructure aligns directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s publicly stated goal of seizing at least 70% of the besieged Palestinian exclave.

    Unlike temporary forward observation posts, the infrastructure uncovered by satellite imagery forms a systematic, long-term military occupation grid. The outposts are linked by a connected network of earthen berms, deep trenches, and dedicated military access roads, forming a tight encirclement of major Palestinian population centers from multiple directions. This encirclement has already crippled civilian mobility, blocking ordinary Palestinians from accessing their agricultural lands and moving freely between communities, particularly in areas adjacent to Israeli deployment lines. The buildup also accompanies Israel’s ongoing expansion of its so-called “yellow line” security boundary, which has steadily pushed deeper into Gaza territory since the truce was signed.

    The construction directly contravenes the terms of the October 2025 ceasefire, a 21-point framework negotiated under then-U.S. President Donald Trump that required an immediate end to hostilities, unimpeded entry of humanitarian aid, the disarmament of Hamas, and a phased full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Palestinian political analyst Abdullah Aqrabawi notes that the buildup reflects a long-entrenched Israeli security doctrine centered on permanent occupation, territorial expansion, and ongoing control over Palestinian land and life.

    Netanyahu has repeatedly articulated his vision for permanent Israeli control over Gaza since the outbreak of conflict in October 2023. In early 2024, he publicly declared Israel would establish “full security control” over the entire strip. In April 2025, he announced the creation of the Morag Corridor, a new security buffer that cuts Gaza into fragmented sections, explicitly framing the move as a tactic to increase pressure on Hamas. Just last week, he told attendees at a youth military academy that Israeli forces currently control roughly 60% of Gaza. When the crowd chanted demands for full control of 100% of the territory, Netanyahu responded that the government would proceed in stages, with 70% as the immediate next target.

    Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz echoed these expansionist goals last year, stating that IDF forces were “expanding to crush and clean” Gaza while seizing large swaths of territory that would be incorporated into Israel’s national security zones to accommodate future settlements. This language references open plans from far-right members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition and settler movement leaders to ethnically cleanse Gaza’s existing Palestinian population and reestablish Israeli civilian settlements in the enclave — a reversal of the 2005 disengagement under then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, when Israel withdrew all settlers and military forces from Gaza after 38 years of occupation following the 1967 Six-Day War.

    Katz and other senior Israeli officials have framed their displacement plan as a U.S.-backed “voluntary migration” initiative for Gaza’s 2 million-plus Palestinians. Critics, however, universally dismiss the term as a deliberate euphemism for ethnic cleansing, noting that the vast majority of Gaza’s residents are descendants of Palestinians forcibly expelled from their lands during the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948, and have no willingness to leave the only home their families have known for generations.

    Even under the formal ceasefire, IDF operations have continued to kill Palestinian civilians at rising rates. Gaza’s Ministry of Health confirmed Wednesday that at least 119 Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces in May 2026 — the highest monthly death toll recorded this year, including 19 children and 10 women. According to Gaza’s Government Media Office, Israel has violated the ceasefire more than 3,000 times since it took effect last October, leaving more than 900 Palestinians dead and nearly 2,800 injured. Since the start of the current conflict in October 2023, more than 250,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed or wounded, with thousands more still missing and presumed buried under rubble destroyed by Israeli airstrikes and ground operations.

    Wednesday’s satellite report is not the first to expose Israel’s post-ceasefire territorial changes in Gaza. Last week, Al Jazeera published separate satellite analysis showing Israel has systematically erased large sections of southern Gaza, including entire cities, agricultural lands, community infrastructure, and even historic cemeteries, in a campaign researchers described as an effort to “erase geography and memory” of Palestinian presence in the territory. “Satellites photograph the destroyed buildings, but they cannot document the feeling of a human searching for their home to no avail,” said Palestinian journalist Muhannad Qishta. “The hardest thing is not the destruction itself, but the stories buried beneath it.”

  • China bans four New Zealand MPs over Taiwan visit

    China bans four New Zealand MPs over Taiwan visit

    In an unprecedented step that marks a sharp departure from long-standing diplomatic practice, China has issued one-year entry bans on four sitting New Zealand Members of Parliament following their official visit to Taiwan in May, New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed. Local media first broke the story on Thursday, revealing that the four lawmakers only learned of the travel restrictions after returning home from their trip. According to reports, the Chinese Embassy in Wellington has indicated the bans could be lifted early if the parliamentarians issue a formal apology.

    China has long asserted territorial claims over the self-governing island of Taiwan, and has consistently sought to limit Taipei’s formal diplomatic engagements with sovereign states around the world. However, this latest action marks the first time Beijing has implemented direct travel restrictions against New Zealand elected officials over a Taiwan visit, a development that has caught Wellington’s top diplomat off guard. A spokesperson for New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to the BBC that the move came as a surprise to Foreign Minister Winston Peters.

    New Zealand’s official position has long held that parliamentary travel to Taiwan is fully aligned with the country’s formal One China policy. “New Zealand MPs have visited Taiwan for decades and such visits are not inconsistent with New Zealand’s One China policy,” the spokesperson said in an official statement.

    The cross-party delegation that traveled to Taiwan in May included three lawmakers from the current ruling coalition: Maureen Pugh, David Wilson, and ACT party member Laura McClure, as well as Duncan Webb from the opposition Labour Party. In comments to local media, McClure pushed back sharply against the restrictions, framing the ban as an unacceptable intrusion into New Zealand’s domestic affairs. “This is a type of foreign interference,” she told the *New Zealand Herald*, adding that she would not apologize for making the trip.

    McClure further told Radio New Zealand that she was caught completely off guard by the punitive measure. “I was quite surprised and shocked,” she said, noting that parliamentary delegations from New Zealand had made similar visits to Taiwan for decades without incident. She emphasized that elected New Zealand representatives hold an inherent right to global travel as part of the country’s democratic foundations. “New Zealand MPs have the right to travel freely around the globe,” she said. “That is part of living in a free democracy.”

    Following the announcement of the bans, Foreign Minister Peters has directed New Zealand diplomatic staff in both Beijing and Wellington to open formal discussions with Chinese authorities, with the goal of clarifying why Beijing broke from decades of past practice on the issue.

    Pictures from the parliamentary visit were shared publicly on Facebook by Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung, who framed the trip as a meaningful show of cross-party parliamentary support for Taipei. Lin tied the New Zealand visit to recent diplomatic challenges Taiwan has faced, referencing President Lai Ching-te’s trip last month to Eswatini, Taiwan’s only remaining formal diplomatic ally in Africa. Lai’s visit was only able to proceed after an initial itinerary was scrapped when multiple African countries reportedly faced pressure from Beijing to deny Lai overflight access to their airspace.

    “President Lai’s recent visit to Eswatini has once again made the world feel the challenges facing Taiwan’s diplomacy,” Lin wrote in his social media post. He added that the New Zealand delegation’s trip “not only showed the support of the New Zealand Parliament for Taiwan, but also made the friendship between Taiwan and New Zealand stronger.”

    New Zealand has formally recognized Beijing as the sole legitimate government of China since establishing full diplomatic ties in 1972, consistent with the One China policy. Like many other nations that do not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, Wellington has continued to hold unofficial people-to-people and parliamentary exchanges with Taiwan over the decades.

    Beijing has already made formal objections to recent parliamentary trips from New Zealand to Taiwan. Last year, a separate delegation of New Zealand MPs met with President Lai Ching-te during a visit to the island, prompting the Chinese Embassy in Wellington to denounce the meeting as “colluding with ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.” A month before that, Beijing also condemned a group of New Zealand lawmakers for attending an official reception hosted by Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Wellington.

    This ban is not the first time China has imposed punitive measures on foreign lawmakers for visiting Taiwan. Beijing has previously issued sanctions against multiple U.S. Members of Congress over Taiwan trips, including then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during her high-profile 2022 visit, and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul in 2023, when authorities claimed McCaul’s visit sent a “serious wrong signal to Taiwan independence separatist forces.”

    Taipei has repeatedly accused Beijing of mounting a coordinated campaign to poach its few remaining diplomatic allies and limit its international space, a narrative that has gained greater traction amid growing global scrutiny of China’s regional ambitions.

  • Iran says it hit US naval vessel, resumes talks with Washington

    Iran says it hit US naval vessel, resumes talks with Washington

    Fresh confrontations and conflicting claims roiled US-Iran relations on Wednesday, as overlapping military clashes, congressional scrutiny, and stalled diplomatic talks laid bare the deep divisions between the two adversaries amid a broader regional conflict.

    Iran opened the day by announcing it had launched a strike against a US military vessel operating near the Gulf of Oman, which Tehran claimed hosted a US command and control center that had entered Iranian territorial waters. The account was immediately rejected by US Central Command, which denied any attack had taken place against an American vessel in the region.

    The day’s deadliest violence unfolded at Kuwait International Airport, where a stray projectile caused extensive structural damage, one fatality, and approximately 60 injuries. Initial blame for the strike fell on Iran, but Tehran countered that the damage stemmed from a malfunctioning US Patriot missile interceptor fired during its own barrage of more than 30 ballistic missiles targeting positions in Kuwait. US Central Command labeled Iran’s missile launch a “deliberate, calculated, and unjustified attack” against the Gulf state. Iran has long alleged that Kuwait permits the US to use its territory as a staging ground for strikes against Iranian targets, a claim Kuwait has repeatedly denied. Kuwaiti authorities have also arrested and deported individuals who filmed missile activity in the country, and reaffirmed this week that it has not allowed Washington to use its military bases for the US-Israeli campaign against Iran that launched on February 28.

    The escalating violence drew sharp criticism from congressional Democrats during a Wednesday hearing featuring Secretary of State Marco Rubio before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Gregory Meeks, the committee’s top Democratic member, repeatedly pressed Rubio for a direct yes-or-no answer on whether the secretary had warned President Donald Trump that US strikes against Iran would trigger retaliatory attacks against American allies, partners, and US citizens residing and working across the Middle East. Rubio only responded that the administration had been fully prepared for any Iranian response.

    The day’s developments came after a fragile Pakistani-brokered ceasefire between the parties collapsed earlier this month, bringing a resumption of open hostilities. Despite the escalation, however, Iran confirmed Wednesday that indirect negotiations with the US have resumed, after Iranian officials pulled back from talks earlier this week to protest Israel’s ongoing intensive bombardment of Lebanon, where Iran backs key ally Hezbollah. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Lebanese broadcaster al-Mayadeen that diplomatic channels have not been severed, though no substantive progress has been achieved to date. “Text exchanges have continued between the two delegations,” Araghchi confirmed.

    The core sticking points of the negotiations remain unchanged. The Trump administration has insisted that any final agreement must require Iran to end all nuclear enrichment activity and dismantle its ballistic missile program—two demands that Tehran has repeatedly labeled non-negotiable red lines. Rubio defended the administration’s military campaign, Operation Epic Fury, to lawmakers on Wednesday, noting the operation has now been fully wound down, and that he does not characterize the ongoing exchange of fire as a full-scale war. “Operation Epic Fury achieved its core goal of degrading Iran’s conventional missile and drone shield, and it forced Tehran back to the negotiating table,” Rubio said. “Our hope is that this will lead Iran to abandon its nuclear enrichment ambitions entirely.”

    Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, citing an anonymous source within the Iranian negotiating delegation, reported Wednesday that any preliminary memorandum of understanding between the two sides will require a four-stage approval process, signaling that a final agreement will likely take months to finalize. That timeline contradicts repeated public statements from President Trump, who has suggested in recent press briefings that a deal with Iran could be reached in the very near term. Iran has also added a new non-nuclear precondition to any agreement: Tehran has made clear it will not sign any deal that fails to guarantee an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory.

    Parallel talks focused on stabilizing the Lebanon front continued this week in Washington, where Lebanese and Israeli officials convened for a third round of negotiations on Tuesday and Wednesday. The talks followed an announcement from Trump Monday that he had held a call with Hezbollah representatives, who confirmed the group would abide by a proposed ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back on that framework, saying he would only agree to a ceasefire that applies to Beirut, leaving open the option of continued air strikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon.

    This independent reporting was originally published by Middle East Eye, which provides on-the-ground coverage of the Middle East and North Africa region.

  • Oil ‘powder keg’: Trump says Hormuz blockade may last all summer

    Oil ‘powder keg’: Trump says Hormuz blockade may last all summer

    On Wednesday, former U.S. President Donald Trump offered a cautiously upbeat outlook on negotiating an end to the ongoing conflict with Iran — a conflict widely characterized as an illegal war initiated under his leadership — even as he conceded that the standoff could stretch on for multiple additional months.

    During an interview with *The New York Post*, Trump was asked whether the current U.S.-led blockade of Iran would remain in place through this year’s Labor Day, which falls on September 7. Responding to the question, Trump stated, “I don’t know. I mean, I think it could be, but I think it’s unlikely.” He went on to assert, “I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly.”

    For months, Trump has leveraged incremental hints that the conflict could wrap up imminently as a tool to prevent global oil prices from surging to catastrophic levels, even as the war drags on with no clear end in sight. While the Trump administration has repeatedly maintained that a previously agreed ceasefire remains in effect, new developments have shattered that narrative: CNN reported Wednesday that Iran launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. military bases stationed in Kuwait and Bahrain, after U.S. forces fired a Hellfire missile at a Botswana-flagged oil tanker en route to an Iranian port.

    Al Jazeera further confirmed that Iran’s retaliation included drone and missile strikes targeting Kuwait’s international airport, which left one civilian dead and dozens more wounded. The fresh escalation has amplified already grave warnings about the fragility of global oil markets, particularly amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude oil supplies.

    Days before the latest exchange of fire, prominent oil industry analyst Patrick De Haan issued a stark warning that oil prices are on the cusp of a sharp upward spike if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. De Haan explained that U.S. petroleum stockpiles, which have been drawn down at an unprecedented rate since the outbreak of the war, are set to hit their lowest level in more than 20 years. In a public social media post, De Haan wrote: “US distillate inventories will likely fall under 100 million barrels for the first time in over 20 years, exacerbated by high exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a powder keg waiting to go off if a deal to reopen the strait doesn’t happen soon.”

    Ryan Cooper, an analyst with *The American Prospect*, echoed that warning in an analysis published Wednesday, noting that the emergency strategies global governments have relied on to cap oil prices — most notably coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves — are fast approaching their limits due to crippling supply constraints. “As storages dwindle and run out, the only way to match demand to supply will be for the price to rise high enough to destroy something like 10 to 20% of global oil consumption,” Cooper wrote. He added that because much of global oil demand is driven by non-negotiable, essential use cases that are largely insensitive to price shifts, benchmark crude prices could surge past $150 per barrel.

    Such a price jump would not only send gasoline and diesel costs soaring for consumers around the world, Cooper added, but would trigger corresponding price increases for nearly every goods category, as almost all products rely on oil for transportation or as a raw material for plastic production.

  • Why bringing down oil’s price is so hard

    Why bringing down oil’s price is so hard

    Global energy markets have been stuck in a chaotic whipsaw for months, swinging wildly with every shift in headlines around the ongoing US-Iran war: bullish drops on rumors of a pending peace deal, sharp spikes when fighting reignites, even as President Donald Trump repeatedly claims a final agreement is within reach. Yet even at their most recent lowest levels, international crude prices remain 40% higher than they were in late February, when the conflict first began. While markets hold out hope that a coming US-Iran agreement could bring relief, two key factors mean consumers and producers should not expect an immediate return to stable, affordable energy.

    Diplomatic observers widely expect that any forthcoming announcement of a peace deal will only address broad terms, kicking thorny, core issues such as Iran’s uranium stockpile and the full lifting of international economic sanctions to future negotiating rounds. Even so, a preliminary agreement would theoretically be welcome news for two groups hit hardest by the price surge: agricultural producers, who have seen margins crushed by spiking fertilizer and diesel costs, and everyday motorists, who have faced sticker shock at gas pumps across the United States and beyond. But the certainty of this relief is far from guaranteed, for two critical reasons.

    First, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of global oil supplies pass daily—remains Iran’s primary bargaining chip in negotiations. Few analysts expect Tehran to surrender full control of the strategic waterway, even if it agrees to formally reopen the lane for commercial shipping and rule out collecting transit tolls. After demonstrating its ability to disrupt traffic through the strait, Iran could easily reimpose restrictions at any time in the future, keeping persistent upward pressure on global oil prices.

    Second, even if Iran fully honors commitments to keep the strait open, long-lasting supply disruptions will keep energy markets tight for months, if not years. Clearing mines laid during the conflict will take weeks, restarting production at idled oil wells will require months of work, and repairing war damage to refineries, pipelines and other critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East will stretch into multiple years. These long-term constraints mean supply cannot rebound quickly enough to bring prices back to pre-conflict levels immediately, even if diplomatic progress is made.

    These projections all assume a deal will be finalized in the near term, a timeline that is far from certain. Negotiations have dragged on because both sides believe they hold the upper hand and can outwait the other. The Trump administration insists that crippling economic sanctions have left Iran’s economy in catastrophic condition, forcing Tehran to accept unfavorable terms. For its part, Iran believes Trump cannot politically afford to enter upcoming US midterm elections with persistently high gas prices, leaving Washington motivated to concede more to get a deal done. The question, then, is which side can tolerate sustained economic and political pain longer.

    By all public indications, Trump is eager to end the conflict. Reports have suggested he is growing frustrated with the war, which poses growing political risk for his administration. The conflict, which Trump as a candidate promised he would avoid, has started to take on the contours of a foreign policy quagmire, though it differs from past protracted conflicts: the war has only lasted three months, with more than half that period spent under a ceasefire, and has not resulted in the thousands of American casualties that marked decades-long conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Still, the current stalemate fits a long historical pattern: great powers have repeatedly struggled to achieve decisive victory against much weaker adversaries. This pattern includes the US failure to subdue North Vietnam, the Soviet Union’s costly defeat in Afghanistan, the 21st century’s protracted US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which has already outlasted the Soviet Union’s fight in World War II.

    Looking at broader great power involvement in the conflict, Russia has provided Iran with intelligence and military supplies, a point Trump’s critics have seized on to argue that the president’s close relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin has yielded no benefits for US interests. While the critics have a valid point, any pressure on Moscow to end support for Iran would likely be met with a reciprocal demand: Russia could tie cutting aid to Iran to the US ending its own military support for Ukraine, which continues even at reduced levels. Meanwhile, China has maintained quiet ties to all parties to both the Ukraine and US-Iran conflicts: critical components for the military drones used by every side in both conflicts are sourced from Chinese manufacturers.

    If negotiations continue to stall amid a shaky ceasefire, Trump has multiple military options to escalate, though none offer a guarantee of success. He could resume large-scale bombing campaigns against Iran, but there is no evidence that increased pressure would force Tehran to buckle. He could authorize a raid to seize Iran’s uranium stockpile, or help Israeli forces carry out such an operation, but such a mission would be extraordinarily complex and high-risk, and would likely have been attempted already if it were easily achievable. Another option is a forced military opening of the Strait of Hormuz, with US naval and air assets escorting commercial shipping through the waterway. This course of action would almost certainly result in casualties, and still cannot guarantee long-term security for shipping. If successful, however, it would eliminate Iran’s core leverage over global oil markets, cutting off Iran’s main oil export revenue and increasing pressure on Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

    For the foreseeable future, however, Iran retains its chokehold over the critical strait—and the economic impact of that leverage continues to be felt by consumers and businesses across every region of the world.

  • Iran slams Kuwait airport in response to US attacks as ceasefire comes under pressure

    Iran slams Kuwait airport in response to US attacks as ceasefire comes under pressure

    A dangerous escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran has left the small Gulf nation of Kuwait reeling from deadly missile and drone attacks, pushing an already fragile ceasefire to the breaking point. On Tuesday night, Iranian forces launched a heavy barrage of projectiles that targeted Kuwait’s main airport, leaving at least one person dead and 63 others injured. Graphic footage from the scene confirms widespread destruction: Terminal 1 is engulfed in active fire, its partial roof has collapsed, and thick plumes of dark smoke have blanketed the airport area.

    Kuwaiti officials have issued a sharp denial of Iranian claims that the country allowed the U.S. to use its airspace to launch pre-emptive strikes against Iran. In an official briefing, Kuwaiti Defense Ministry spokesperson Brigadier General Saud al-Otayan publicly denounced the assault as “criminal Iranian aggression.” In a coordinated diplomatic response, Kuwait summoned Iran’s acting chargé d’affaires to formally protest the attack and ordered two Iranian embassy personnel to leave the country within a 24-hour window.

    The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed its responsibility for the assault in an official statement posted to its Telegram channel, noting that the strikes targeted two key sites: Ali Al Salem Air Base, a major facility that hosts U.S. military helicopters, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters based in neighboring Bahrain. The attack followed a chain of escalating tit-for-tat strikes that began when U.S. forces targeted an empty oil tanker Tehran was reportedly attempting to bring to one of its ports. This action came amid a broader U.S. naval blockade on Iranian shipping, imposed after Iran took control of key transit areas in the Strait of Hormuz and began demanding new transit fees for commercial vessels passing through the strategic waterway. U.S. officials say Iran first opened fire on American sailors after the tanker strike, prompting the U.S. to launch its own counterstrikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Following the Iranian assault on Kuwait and Bahrain, U.S. military officials announced they had “successfully defeated” the wave of missile and drone attacks and reaffirmed their counterstrikes on Qeshm Island.

    This latest attack marks one of the most severe strikes on Kuwait since Iran launched a series of retaliatory assaults against Gulf states earlier this year, in response to a joint U.S.-Israeli offensive that began on February 28. Kuwait currently hosts approximately 13,500 U.S. troops, one of the largest American military deployments in the entire Gulf region. Earlier this year, Kuwait and other Gulf Cooperation Council states pushed the U.S. to avoid military confrontation with Iran, but regional alliances have shifted rapidly in recent months: the United Arab Emirates has launched dozens of its own strikes against Iran, while Saudi Arabia initially granted the U.S. expanded access to its military bases before shifting its stance to back Pakistani-mediated diplomatic negotiations.

    The latest flare-up has thrown already shaky ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran into further disarray. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed the two sides are close to reaching a new negotiated deal, but Iranian officials have consistently denied any willingness to compromise on either their nuclear program or their demands to impose transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Just this week, Iran’s official Tasnim News Agency confirmed Tehran has cut off all direct contact with U.S. negotiators, though Trump insisted Tuesday that discussions remain ongoing. Talks have stalled over two core sticking points: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted commercial traffic and the full sanctions relief Iran has demanded to extend the current fragile ceasefire.

    Appearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio doubled down on Washington’s hardline stance, saying Iran will only qualify for sanctions relief if it completely abandons its nuclear enrichment program. “Iran is being sanctioned because they’ve highly enriched uranium. Iran is being sanctioned because of their nuclear activities; if they agree to give up those things, there will be sanctions relief,” Rubio told lawmakers. “They have to agree on negotiating severe and long-term limitations and/or cancellation of enrichment activity.”

    Rubio claimed Iranian negotiators have recently begun discussing aspects of their nuclear program that were previously off the table, but he offered no concrete details to support the assertion. Iranian officials flatly rejected the claim Friday, stating explicitly that “no negotiations” are currently underway over the country’s nuclear program. Rubio’s comments also make clear the U.S. has no immediate plans to release the billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets that Tehran has made a core requirement for any permanent ceasefire agreement.

    Caught between competing regional and global powers, Kuwait finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable position. With a total population of around five million, the country lacks the extensive military capabilities of larger Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and has less diplomatic leverage than neighboring Qatar to de-escalate tensions. As fighting reignites along the Gulf, this small nation has become an unintended casualty of the escalating standoff between the U.S. and Iran.

  • Costly fuel pushes more Indians to buy electric cars but challenges remain

    Costly fuel pushes more Indians to buy electric cars but challenges remain

    Against a backdrop of global energy volatility driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict, India’s electric vehicle (EV) market appears to have crossed a critical milestone that signals a potential shift toward mainstream adoption, according to industry analysts and new market data. For the 12-month period ending March 2026, India’s electric car market expanded by a robust 25% year-over-year, and earlier this year, EVs crossed the 5% penetration threshold in the country’s overall passenger vehicle segment — an industry benchmark widely viewed as the tipping point for mass consumer adoption.

    India’s automobile dealers association described the ongoing shift as more than a preliminary directional trend, stating in a recent release that the transition has now become substantive. Growth is particularly pronounced in higher-priced passenger vehicle segments, where vehicles retailing above 1 million rupees ($10,481) now see one out of every 10 units sold as electric. The trend is even more established in smaller vehicle categories: electric three-wheelers already make up more than 30% of all segment sales, while electric two-wheelers capture a 15% market share.

    The sharp recent spike in consumer interest has been accelerated by immediate external pressures, most notably the Middle East conflict that has sent global crude oil prices soaring by 50% in recent months. As a country that relies on imports for nearly 90% of its total oil demand, India has been forced to raise retail fuel prices after four years of relative price stability from state-run fuel retailers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has even publicly urged Indian citizens to adopt carpooling, prioritize public transit, and embrace work-from-home arrangements to conserve domestic fuel supplies. Japanese financial brokerage Nomura notes that this prolonged market uncertainty, paired with persistently elevated fuel costs, has created an incremental, powerful incentive for Indian consumers to consider switching to EVs.

    Beyond these short-term triggers, a set of long-term structural policy shifts are also pushing the transition forward. The most impactful upcoming change is the CAFE-3 regulatory framework, scheduled to take effect in April 2027 and remain in force through March 2032. According to analysts Venugopal Garre and Param Shah of global investment firm Bernstein, the new rules meaningfully tighten emissions standards and will likely drive a far more visible acceleration in EV adoption across the country.

    Unlike India’s current regulatory regime, which pairs EV incentives with non-binding emissions targets and unenforced penalties, CAFE-3 will make compliance requirements legally binding. The draft rules mandate a 33% reduction in new passenger vehicle carbon emissions by 2032, cutting the allowable average from 113g/km to 76g/km. Bernstein also points out that unlike previous regulatory cycles, where roughly $1 billion in accumulated fines against eight major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were never collected, penalties under CAFE-3 are expected to be enforced — creating a strong financial incentive for automakers to ramp up their EV lineups.

    Local policy action is also reinforcing national trends. Delhi, India’s capital and one of the country’s most chronically air-polluted urban centers, recently released an ambitious draft policy that proposes phasing out conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles entirely, and halting new registrations of ICE-powered two-wheelers and three-wheelers as early as 2027.

    Another key tailwind for the market is a wave of upcoming new model launches, which analysts say will expand consumer choice across all price points. Nomura projects that EV penetration in India’s passenger vehicle market will reach 9% by 2030, driven by this healthy product pipeline. In the two-wheeler segment, a growing slate of new affordable models is expected to boost demand, while three-wheelers are projected to see EVs outsell ICE variants by 2030, a shift that will drastically speed up the overall national transition.

    Nomura’s analysis notes that India’s EV adoption is currently concentrated in high-utilization, cost-sensitive segments such as three-wheelers, a pattern that suggests the adoption curve will be non-linear. As production scales to improve affordability, national charging networks expand, and policy support strengthens, penetration in passenger vehicles and two-wheelers will accelerate rapidly in coming years, the firm predicts.

    Despite these encouraging indicators, India still lags far behind major global economies in overall EV adoption. Nomura data underscores the gap: China saw passenger EV penetration surge from just 5.7% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2026, while the European Union stands at 20% penetration and the United States at 8%.

    One of the most pressing barriers to faster growth remains the severe shortage of public charging infrastructure. While the number of public charging stations has grown fivefold from 2,000 to more than 10,000 over the past three years, deployment is extremely uneven across the country: just four of India’s 28 states host more than 50% of all existing public chargers. The gap with leading markets is staggering: China has deployed more than 20 million public charging points nationwide, compared to India’s current 10,000. Nomura notes that persistent infrastructure gaps have kept range anxiety — consumer fear of running out of battery power mid-journey — one of the top deterrents for potential EV buyers.

    Gaps in India’s domestic battery and component supply chain represent another major long-term challenge. India relies almost entirely on global imports for the rare earth minerals and processed battery materials required for EV production. While the Indian government has announced plans to scale up domestic production, global processing remains overwhelmingly dominated by China: KPMG data shows China controls 70-80% of global lithium and cobalt refining, and nearly 90% of all rare earth separation capacity. This dependency creates significant geopolitical risk for India’s EV transition, and could slow rollout timelines and erode cost competitiveness, the global consultancy notes.

    Building a fully integrated domestic supply chain, from mineral mining to finished battery pack and magnet manufacturing, can take more than a decade to complete, meaning there are no quick fixes to this challenge. KPMG argues that India will need to pair short-term supply security measures with long-term investments to develop domestic manufacturing capabilities to address the gap.

    For consumers and automakers alike, the timely finalization and implementation of the CAFE-3 standards will be the most critical near-term driver of growth, according to Amitabh Kant, former CEO of Niti Aayog, the Indian government’s leading policy think tank. Writing in the *Indian Express*, Kant noted that while the standards have been under discussion for three years, they remain tentative, though a final draft is expected to be released imminently. In the absence of clear regulatory certainty, automakers defer major investment decisions, supply chain development slows, and the broader EV ecosystem remains stuck in uncertainty, Kant explained. What will ultimately drive widespread adoption, he added, is consistent, predictable policy clarity.