标签： Asia

As U.S. President Donald Trump departs Washington for Beijing this Tuesday to hold a critically important bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the diplomatic landscape ahead of the summit is already marked by carefully calibrated expectations and unresolved frictions over the two-month-old Middle East conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

For weeks, the Trump administration has mounted a diplomatic push to convince Beijing to deploy its massive economic leverage as the world’s top importer of Iranian oil to pressure Tehran into accepting Washington’s terms to end the conflict, or at minimum to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil shipments passed before the war began. That push has so far failed to deliver tangible shifts in China’s posture, forcing the White House to temper expectations ahead of the meeting.

Trump’s own public framing of China’s role has been inconsistent: he has alternately criticized Beijing for failing to do more to align Iran with U.S. objectives, while also acknowledging that Xi’s government helped de-escalate tensions last month when it nudged Iran back to the ceasefire negotiating table after talks collapsed. Faced with this stalemate, the administration has made the deliberate choice not to let disagreements over Iran derail progress on other core priorities in the complex U.S.-China relationship, from long-simmering trade disputes to Chinese cooperation on blocking the export of illegal fentanyl precursors to the United States.

“We don’t want this to be something that derails the broader relationship or the agreements that might come out of our meeting in Beijing,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Bloomberg Television last week, confirming the administration’s strategic prioritization of broader bilateral goals over immediate progress on Iran.

The run-up to the summit has been marked by new friction, however: the U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Chinese entities tied to Iran just days before Trump’s arrival. The State Department announced sanctions Friday on four entities, including three China-based firms, accusing them of providing sensitive satellite imagery that supports Iranian military strikes against U.S. forces in the Middle East. This action followed earlier Treasury Department sanctions targeting Chinese oil refineries and shippers accused of purchasing Iranian crude, cutting the targeted companies off from the U.S. financial system and penalizing any third parties that conduct business with them.

Beijing has pushed back forcefully against the sanctions, labeling them “illegal unilateral pressure.” For the first time since it was enacted in 2021, China has activated its blocking statute, which prohibits all Chinese entities from recognizing or complying with the U.S. sanctions measures.

From Beijing’s perspective, China has already taken measured diplomatic steps to support de-escalation. Publicly, Beijing says it seeks an immediate end to the conflict, and it has worked behind the scenes to support Pakistan’s efforts to broker a peace deal. According to Ahmed Aboudouh, a Middle East and China expert at London-based think tank Chatham House, Beijing has also sent quiet signals of disapproval to Iran over its decision to close the strait, as well as to the U.S. over its naval blockade of Iranian shipping.

“They are very cautious, risk-averse, and they don’t want to be involved in anything that would drag them into something that they don’t consider their problem,” Aboudouh explained of China’s restrained approach.

Days ahead of the summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Beijing, where Wang explicitly defended Iran’s sovereign right to develop civilian nuclear energy. Xi has also offered implicit criticism of U.S. policy in the conflict, arguing that upholding international rule of law must be a global priority, adding that rules “must not be selectively applied or disregarded,” and the world must not be allowed to revert “to the law of the jungle.”

Despite the open frictions over Iran and new sanctions, both sides have made clear they are invested in avoiding a full breakdown of bilateral ties, and both are eager to protect the fragile trade truce reached last October to avert a return to the full-scale tariff war that rattled global markets last year.

On the eve of his departure, Trump downplayed disagreements with Beijing over the conflict, telling reporters that Xi also wants to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened. “He’d like to see it get done,” Trump said of the Chinese leader.

Analysts note that Xi also has strong incentives to compartmentalize the Iran dispute to avoid damaging other core Chinese interests. China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for roughly half of its crude oil imports and nearly one-third of its liquefied natural gas imports, according to Chinese customs data, meaning the closure directly harms China’s energy security. Beijing is also keen to avoid further deterioration of U.S.-China ties that would add new headwinds to China’s already slowing economy.

“I think for Xi, a win is continued stability without surrender,” said Craig Singleton, senior director for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ China program. “He wants the summit to validate China’s superpower status, preserve the tariff predictability, and to reaffirm that Washington has to deal with Beijing on Beijing’s terms.”

This is not the first time tensions over the conflict have threatened the recent relative stability in U.S.-China relations. The U.S. government says China has long supported Iran’s ballistic missile program through exports of dual-use components that can be used in missile production. Last month, Trump threatened to impose a 50% broad tariff on Chinese goods after reports emerged that Beijing planned to ship new air defense systems to Iran, but he backed away from the threat almost immediately after saying he received written assurance from Xi that no weapons would be delivered to Tehran. Days later, Trump made the cryptic claim that the U.S. Navy had intercepted a Chinese vessel carrying a “gift” for Iran, though he has never offered further details to clarify the statement.

“There have been moments where it seemed like it was going to spill over,” said Patricia Kim, co-leader of the Assessing China Project at the Brookings Institution. “But I think, again, the two sides are pretty invested in not allowing this to destabilize the broader relationship.”

Top Trump administration officials have argued that the conflict and strait closure actually damage China and its regional neighbors far more than the United States, which is far less dependent on Middle Eastern energy exports than it once was. “China is an export-driven economy. That means they depend on other countries to buy from them,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last week, arguing that reopening the waterway is clearly in Beijing’s own interest. “You can’t buy from them if you can’t ship it there, and you can’t buy from them if your economy is being destroyed by what Iran is doing.”

Even so, China has shown no willingness to wade deeper into the conflict or openly align with U.S. policy, a dynamic that suggests little progress on the issue is likely to emerge from this week’s summit. “It will be difficult to get the Chinese deeply involved under any circumstances,” said Kurt Campbell, a former deputy Secretary of State during the Biden administration and chairman of The Asia Group. “They will want to be careful because they can see political quicksand as well as the next guy.”

Reporting for this article was contributed by Associated Press writers Didi Tang in Washington, Adam Schreck in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and David Rising in Bangkok.

On a tense Monday at the White House, former U.S. President Donald Trump launched a sharp public rejection of a recently tabled peace proposal from Iran, dismissing the plan as “stupid garbage” and warning that the month-long ceasefire between U.S.-Israeli forces and Iran that has held since early April is barely clinging to survival. Despite the harsh rhetoric, however, Trump left a narrow door open to eventual diplomacy, noting that despite multiple rounds of on-again off-again negotiations, a final negotiated settlement remains within reach.

“I think it’s very possible. I’ve had a deal with them four or five times; they change their mind,” Trump told reporters, accusing Iran’s senior leadership of acting in bad faith and labeling the regime “very dishonorable.”

Details of Iran’s 14-point proposal, which was submitted to mediators on May 10, emerged earlier via Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency. The framework includes two non-negotiable core demands: financial compensation for the widespread physical and infrastructure damage inflicted during the 40-day U.S.-Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic, and formal international recognition of Iran’s full sovereignty over the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil supplies pass daily.

Within hours of Trump’s public remarks, the U.S. Department of the Treasury followed up with a new round of punitive measures, blacklisting 12 individuals and business entities that agency officials accuse of facilitating illicit shipments of Iranian crude oil to Chinese markets. The sanctions package, branded “Operation Economic Fury” by the Treasury, targets a network of shipping and trading firms spread across multiple global hubs to cut off revenue streams the U.S. says fund Iranian military programs, regional proxy groups, and nuclear development.

“As Iran’s military desperately tries to regroup, [Operation] Economic Fury will continue to deprive the regime of funding for its weapons programs, terrorist proxies, and nuclear ambitions,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an official statement. “Treasury will continue to cut the Iranian regime off from the financial networks it uses to carry out terrorist acts and to destabilize the global economy.”

The sanctioned entities include two Hong Kong-based firms, Blue Ocean Limited and Sanmu Limited, three Dubai-based operations: Ocean Allianz Shipping, Blanca Goods Wholesaler, and Universal Fortune Trading, as well as Atic Energy FZE based in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, and Oman’s Zeus Logistics Group.

Iran quickly responded to the developments, with parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reaffirming that Iranian military forces are at full readiness to repel any new U.S. attack if hostilities resume. At the same time, Ghalibaf emphasized in a post on X that there is no path to peace outside of recognizing the core legitimate rights of the Iranian people that are laid out in the country’s 14-point proposal. Any attempt to bypass these demands will only lead to repeated failure, he warned, adding that delays from the U.S. side will only deepen the financial burden on American taxpayers.

Seeking to pre-empt public anxiety that his rejection of Iran’s peace plan could trigger a resumption of full-scale war and a subsequent spike in global energy prices, Trump told CBS News in a separate interview Monday that he is proposing to temporarily suspend the federal gasoline tax to offer financial relief to U.S. consumers. The current federal tax stands at 18 cents per gallon (roughly 4.7 cents per liter). As of Monday, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline hit $4.55 per gallon, with much higher rates recorded in major coastal and urban centers including New York City, Washington D.C., and Los Angeles.

The 40-day U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which launched on February 28, has already taken a heavy toll on Trump’s domestic political standing. By late April, his national approval rating plummeted to 34 percent, the lowest point of his current term. A new Reuters-Ipsos poll released Monday shows only a marginal uptick to 36 percent. The survey also reveals deep public dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the conflict: two-thirds of respondents said Trump has failed to clearly explain to the American public why the war was launched in the first place, and a matching share reported that the conflict has already negatively impacted their personal household finances.

This coverage is provided by Middle East Eye, an independent outlet offering in-depth reporting on the Middle East, North Africa, and surrounding regions.

WASHINGTON — Ahead of the much-anticipated bilateral summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, officials from both major powers have emphasized that bilateral relations have held broadly steady in recent months, with both sides prioritizing the preservation of that stability going into the meeting. Yet even as consensus around stability holds, the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship faces a sprawling roster of intractable disputes with no clear path to quick resolution, leaving analysts skeptical that major breakthroughs will emerge from the talks. From tech competition to the long-simmering Taiwan issue, and now the Iran conflict, every topic on the agenda carries high global stakes.

Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Freeman Chair in China Studies, noted that both sides share a core agreement on the value of U.S.-China stability. Beyond that foundational consensus, however, the future of the relationship grows far more complex, she said, making limited progress the most likely outcome of the leaders’ meeting.

### Trade: A Fragile Truce Holds, But Core Issues Remain Unresolved
The U.S.-China trade conflict first erupted during Trump’s first term, and escalated sharply last April when the U.S. president announced 34% tariffs on all Chinese goods in a move he labeled “Liberation Day.” China responded quickly with reciprocal tariffs and targeted countermeasures, including new restrictions on its rare earth exports. The tit-for-tat escalation pushed bilateral tariffs as high as 145% before both sides acknowledged the unsustainable economic damage and agreed to a trade truce, pausing most punitive economic measures.

The two leaders first extended the truce for an additional year during an October meeting in South Korea, with China committing to increased soybean purchases from American agricultural producers and the U.S. cutting existing tariffs by more than half. Zhao Minghao, an international relations professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University, explained that China’s approach has centered on pushing back against U.S. tariffs while working to preserve overall bilateral stability.

While some observers expect the two sides to announce a new comprehensive trade agreement during the summit, Zhao cautioned that such a deal would not mark a permanent end to the trade conflict, and would include conditional terms. Last year’s truce failed to resolve any core structural disputes, nor did it return bilateral economic relations to their pre-trade war status. China has since implemented new export permit requirements for rare earths, a regulation that allows Beijing to tighten shipments at any time.

Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society and a former U.S. trade negotiator, noted that this summit lacks the intensive pre-meeting bilateral engagement that characterized past high-level talks. In April, Beijing introduced a new regulatory framework to counter foreign sanctions targeting Chinese companies, which instructs affected domestic firms to ignore extraterritorial U.S. restrictions — a directive already applied to a Chinese petroleum refinery processing Iranian crude in defiance of American sanctions. Cutler described the current trade arrangement as a “fragile truce,” noting that even if the truce is extended, both sides have continued to take targeted actions against one another’s economic interests. The White House has also confirmed that leaders will discuss a proposal for a new bilateral “Board of Trade” to maintain ongoing economic dialogue between the two powers.

### Advanced Semiconductors: Export Restrictions Push China Toward Self-Reliance
U.S. restrictions on exports of advanced computer chips and related manufacturing technology to China were first introduced during Trump’s first term, and the issue remains a major point of friction ahead of the summit. Leading American chip designer Nvidia has lobbied the Trump administration to relax export curbs, with founder Jensen Huang arguing that continued access to American chips would leave Chinese artificial intelligence firms dependent on U.S. technology.

However, growing export restrictions have only accelerated Beijing’s push to develop a domestic, self-sufficient semiconductor industry. In written comments, Zhao noted that China’s position has shifted subtly in recent years: Beijing now prioritizes advancing its domestic chip sector over continued reliance on American advanced semiconductor imports.

### Taiwan: Beijing Labels the Issue the ‘Biggest Risk’ to Bilateral Ties
Two weeks before the summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that while overall bilateral relations remain stable, the Taiwan question remains the single biggest threat to U.S.-China ties. Beijing reaffirmed ahead of the meeting that Taiwan would be a top priority for discussions.

The Taiwan issue has lingered since the 1949 Chinese civil war, which split the two sides. Beijing claims the self-ruled democratic island as part of its sovereign territory, and tensions have risen steadily since the election of Tsai Ing-wen from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2016. Beijing cut off official communication with Tsai’s administration and has stepped up military pressure, conducting nearly daily naval and air patrols near the island in recent years. Current Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, also a member of the DPP, has faced repeated criticism from Beijing, which has depicted him as a separatist in state propaganda accompanying large-scale military exercises around the island.

The U.S. is legally required to provide Taiwan with defensive military hardware, but maintains a longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether it would intervene militarily if China attempts to take the island by force. Recent comments from Trump confirming he discussed arms sales to Taiwan with Xi have renewed uncertainty over U.S. policy toward the island. Zhao suggested a limited pragmatic compromise could be on the table: a framework of reciprocal restraint, under which the U.S. would reduce arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for China cutting back military drills targeting the island. Few analysts expect a permanent resolution to the issue to emerge from the summit.

### The Iran Conflict: U.S. Pushes for Chinese Influence, Beijing Remains Cautious
As the international community awaits a ceasefire in the Iran conflict that has disrupted global energy markets, the issue is set to be added to the summit agenda. Beijing has positioned itself as an unofficial mediator in the conflict thanks to its close political and economic ties to Tehran, but has so far avoided deep direct involvement. China has publicly criticized the U.S. and Israel over the ongoing war.

Levin argued that Beijing has little incentive to resolve a regional crisis that Washington created: “I don’t think China has any interest in solving the problems the U.S. has created for itself in the Middle East,” she said. Ahead of the summit, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly called on China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, and accused Beijing of funding terrorism through its purchases of Iranian crude. Speaking to Fox News, Bessent said: “Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism, and China has been buying 90% of their energy, so they are funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism. Let’s see if China steps up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the strait.”

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to depart Washington for a high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Tuesday — the first of potentially four scheduled meetings between the two leaders this year — he has struck an upbeat tone about bilateral economic ties, framing the world’s two largest economies as reaping growing mutual benefits from trade while downplaying escalating frictions over rare earth minerals, tit-for-tat tariffs, and cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence.

“We’re doing a lot of business with China and making a lot of money,” Trump told reporters last week. “We’re making a lot of money — it’s different than it used to be.”

The summit’s core agenda centers on preserving stability in the bilateral economic relationship, with analysts and administration officials signaling that only incremental policy announcements are expected. The temporary trade truce reached by the two leaders during an October meeting in South Korea last year is widely projected to be extended, and China is reportedly preparing to unveil new purchase commitments for key U.S. exports including soybeans, beef, and commercial aircraft from Boeing. U.S. officials have also publicly floated the creation of a new bilateral Board of Trade to sustain ongoing dialogue on economic issues.

Brett Fetterly, managing principal at global consultancy The Asia Group who specializes in China policy, notes that many within the Trump administration view stable, continued engagement as a more critical outcome than a sweeping immediate policy deal. “The outcome that matters more than any set of deliverables is stability and space for continued engagement, both to build domestic resilience and to facilitate future deal-making,” Fetterly explained.

Yet even as diplomatic preparations frame the summit as a step toward smoother relations, deep-seated competition continues to shape the bilateral relationship, with multiple flashpoints ranging from lingering tariff disputes to the AI arms race and the ongoing Iran war capable of upending fragile progress. Official trade data also undermines Trump’s optimistic framing of growing U.S. gains from trade with China: U.S. Census Bureau figures show China purchased nearly $50 billion less in American goods last year than it did in 2022, a drop driven in part by Beijing’s pause of soybean purchases during a 2024 flare-up of trade tensions. The Trump administration has made expanding Chinese imports of U.S. goods a core priority to support American farmers and manufacturers and narrow the 2024 bilateral trade deficit, which hit $202 billion.

Wider trade shifts have also reshaped economic ties in recent years: for the first time, the United States now imports more goods from Taiwan than from mainland China, a shift largely driven by surging demand for AI-related semiconductors and server hardware from the self-governing island that Beijing claims as its own. Analysis by Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and co-author of *How to Win a Trade War*, shows China’s share of total U.S. goods imports has plummeted from 22% at the start of Trump’s first term in 2017 to just 7.5% in the first three months of this year, as both sides have rerouted trade through third-party economies and U.S. firms have shifted electronics supply chains to Vietnam and India.

The proposed new bilateral Board of Trade lies at the center of U.S. negotiating priorities for the summit. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng during an April 30 call that the body would focus on facilitating trade in non-sensitive goods — such as agricultural products, but excluding advanced semiconductors and other technology deemed critical to national security — and streamline dispute resolution to help boost U.S. exports to China. The initiative also offers the Trump administration a politically and legally viable alternative to large-scale tariff hikes, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump lacked the authority to unilaterally impose the sweeping 145% tariff increases on Chinese goods he enacted last year, and a federal court recently deemed the replacement temporary tariffs illegal last week.

Administration officials confirmed that both sides will need to secure domestic approval to launch the board, which would oversee tens of billions of dollars in annual trade. The U.S. is also pushing for a parallel bilateral investment forum to facilitate cross-border financing of commercial operations. A 17-member delegation of major U.S. corporate CEOs, including Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, will accompany Trump on the trip, the White House confirmed.

Despite the push for dialogue, fundamental misalignment of priorities between Washington and Beijing threatens to limit progress at the summit. Trump has framed the bilateral trade imbalance as the core issue to resolve, betting that the U.S. can retain its technological lead in artificial intelligence. By contrast, Xi’s administration frames a rapidly shifting global landscape shaped by climate change and the Iran war as an opportunity to expand global market share for Chinese clean energy technologies including solar panels and electric vehicles.

“Washington and Beijing are competing at different levels and different domains, with different theories of victory,” explained Michael Sobolik, senior fellow for U.S.-China relations at the conservative Hudson Institute. “President Trump leveraged tariffs not as a weapon against China but as leverage to secure a trade deal. Xi Jinping is angling to win a cold war with the United States.”

The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran has also created a new inflection point in global energy that deepens structural divides, according to Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group. The Trump administration is betting on continued global reliance on fossil fuels, while China frames recent energy price spikes triggered by Strait of Hormuz shipment disruptions as validation of its long-term strategy to lead the global green energy transition. “The structural frictions between the United States and China, they are growing in number and severity,” Wyne noted.

Beneath the upbeat diplomatic rhetoric ahead of the summit, a host of unresolved flashpoints continue to threaten bilateral stability. These include China’s near-total global dominance of rare earth mining and processing — critical inputs for consumer electronics and clean energy technology — which the Trump administration is working to break through years of new investment and alternative supply chain partnerships. The U.S. also continues to push sweeping restrictions on Chinese access to cutting-edge AI semiconductors produced by U.S. firms including Nvidia and AMD. Other sticking points include China’s growing global dominance as an auto exporter, with Chinese vehicle exports rising 21% last year and Chinese EV manufacturers undercutting global competitors on price. The administration is also pursuing new tariffs on Chinese goods under a 1974 Trade Act national security provision, after earlier tariffs were struck down by the courts, targeting excess industrial capacity and alleged forced labor practices. Most recently, U.S. sanctions on a Chinese oil refinery and dozens of Chinese tankers and shipping firms for transporting Iranian crude have sparked a public backlash from Beijing, which has demanded international actors ignore the penalties, and the two countries are also locked in a dispute over Panama Canal management.

In the days leading up to US President Donald Trump’s first visit to Beijing since 2017, tightened security arrangements around Tiananmen Square have fueled widespread social media speculation of a large-scale organized welcome event, marking the buildup to what is widely regarded as one of the most consequential global leadership summits in recent years. What was once a quiet preparation process is now shaping up to be a defining meeting that could chart the course of US-China relations for the coming decade, with agendas spanning Middle East mediation, cross-strait tensions, trade disputes and cutting-edge technological competition.

For months prior to the visit, the Trump administration had sidelined US-China relations to prioritize other pressing matters: the ongoing conflict with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere, and pressing domestic political and economic concerns. But this week, all attention has shifted to Beijing, where every discussion between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping carries global stakes.

One of the most pressing topics on the agenda is China’s emerging role as a mediator in the three-month-long US-Israel-Iran conflict. Working alongside Pakistan, Beijing put forward a five-point peace plan in March aimed at securing an immediate ceasefire and reopening the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, with Chinese diplomats privately pushing Iranian officials to engage in diplomatic negotiations.

Beijing has strong personal incentives to end the conflict quickly. Already grappling with slowing domestic growth and rising unemployment, China’s export-reliant economy has felt acute pain from the war-driven surge in global oil prices: higher fuel costs have pushed up production costs for petrochemical-dependent sectors from textiles to plastics by as much as 20% for some domestic manufacturers. While China’s own substantial oil reserves and leading position in renewable energy and electric vehicles have buffered it from the worst of the fuel crisis, the conflict still drags on an already sluggish economy.

That said, Beijing is not offering mediation for free. US officials are well aware of China’s influence in Tehran, demonstrated by last week’s high-profile visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Beijing. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has openly called on China to pressure Iran, saying: “what you are doing in the Strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You’re the bad guy in this.” Washington has also lobbied Beijing to support a new UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait, after Russia vetoed an earlier draft.

Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, notes that the US has already acknowledged Beijing’s indispensable role in any long-term diplomatic resolution of the conflict: “I think if we’re going to bring Iran back to the negotiating table in an enduring way, I think that the United States recognises that China is going to play some role.” For his part, Trump has adopted a soft stance on China’s ties to Tehran, downplaying concerns even after Washington sanctioned a Chinese refinery for transporting Iranian oil. “It is what it is, right? We do things, too, against them,” he told reporters recently.

Cross-strait tensions over Taiwan will be another unavoidable core topic of the summit. Last December, the Trump administration’s $11 billion arms sales deal to Taipei drew fierce backlash from Beijing, but Trump himself has sent contradictory signals on US security commitments to the island, which China claims as an inalienable part of its territory. The US president has publicly downplayed US willingness to defend Taiwan, saying that Taiwan does not adequately compensate the US for security guarantees and even imposed a 15% tariff on Taiwanese goods last year, accusing Taipei of stealing US semiconductor manufacturing.

Rubio has confirmed that Taiwan will be on the meeting agenda, but stressed that Washington’s goal is to avoid new tensions between the two superpowers. “We don’t need any destabilising events to occur with regards to Taiwan or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific, and I think that’s to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese,” he said. For China, Taiwan is a non-negotiable red line: Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently urged the US to make the “right choice” in a call with Rubio, while Beijing has ramped up daily military patrols around the island.

Some analysts speculate that Beijing may push for a revision of the long-standing 1982 US policy wording on Taiwan, seeking to upgrade Washington’s current position of “not supporting Taiwan independence” to a clearer statement of “opposing Taiwan independence.” But John Delury, a senior fellow from the Centre on US-China Relations at the Asia Society, is skeptical of any major breakthrough: “Even if Trump says something kind of left field that looks like some capitulation on Taiwan, because he’s not so careful with his use of language, the Chinese know better than to put much stock in that, because he can reverse it with a Truth Social post a week later.”

Trade, the historic flashpoint of US-China tensions, is also back on the agenda after months of escalating friction. Throughout 2025, the world’s two largest economies teetered on the edge of a full-blown new trade war that would have shaken the global economy: Trump repeatedly adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, at one point pushing rates above 100%, while Beijing retaliated by cutting rare earth exports to the US and suspending purchases of American agricultural goods, hitting Trump’s key support base of rural farming states.

Tensions have cooled significantly since Trump and Xi met on the sidelines of a conference in South Korea last October, and a recent US Supreme Court ruling limiting the president’s unilateral authority to impose tariffs has also curbed Trump’s more impulsive trade instincts. Still, major disagreements remain: Trump will push for increased Chinese purchases of US agricultural products, while Beijing will demand that Washington scrap a newly launched trade probe into alleged unfair Chinese business practices that would allow Trump to reimpose sweeping high tariffs.

Michael O’Hanlan, Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, notes that this will be a tough negotiation for Washington: “It could be tough for the US to give up investigations of all unfair Chinese trade practices given how widespread and distorting the latter still are.” According to Reuters, Trump will be accompanied by CEOs from top American firms including Nvidia, Apple, Exxon and Boeing, highlighting the deep business stakes of the visit. While China is less dependent on US trade than it was during Trump’s first term, Beijing still prioritizes global economic stability as it pursues domestic growth, making a smooth meeting a key priority for Xi.

Ryan Hass, Director of the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institution, summed up the fragile dynamic ahead of the summit: “So long as the visit proceeds smoothly and Trump concludes he was treated respectfully, then the uneasy calm in the bilateral relationship will endure. If, on the other hand, Trump leaves feeling disrespected or trifled with, then he could have a change of heart.”

Beyond geopolitics and trade, the rising competition over cutting-edge technology – particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductors – will be a central theme of the talks. China is currently investing heavily in AI and humanoid robotics, core components of what Xi calls “new productive forces” that Beijing hopes will drive its next phase of economic growth. But many US policymakers accuse China of pursuing policies to co-opt or steal American technology to advance its domestic industries, leading Washington to impose sweeping restrictions on exports of the most advanced microchips to China, despite pushback from US chip manufacturers.

While the recent resolution of the TikTok ownership dispute represented a rare positive breakthrough in a tech relationship long plagued by accusation and mistrust, frictions have reemerged in the fast-growing AI sector. The White House has accused Chinese AI firms of large-scale theft of American AI models, while Beijing has reportedly blocked US firm Meta’s acquisition of Singapore-based Chinese-founded AI startup Manus. Yingyi Ma, a researcher at the John L Thornton China Centre, notes: “An opening chapter of an AI cold war is emerging. The deeper contest is not over who copies whose model, but over the talent capable of building the next generation of frontier AI.”

China has recently showcased its advanced robotic capabilities with humanoid bots performing martial arts and outrunning human runners in Beijing marathons, but analysts point out that while Chinese firms excel at building the mechanical bodies of these systems, they still rely on US-made high-end chips to power the advanced artificial intelligence that operates them. For Beijing, this creates a natural opening for a potential trade: access to China’s dominant position in rare earth minerals – which processes 90% of global supply, critical to everything from smartphones to wind turbines to jet engines – in exchange for relaxed US restrictions on high-end chip exports.

Despite the wide range of high-stakes issues on the agenda, Trump’s Beijing visit will be a condensed two-day whirlwind tour of meetings and official events, including formal talks, a state banquet and a visit to the historic Temple of Heaven. While substantive final agreements may not be reached in such a short time frame, analysts broadly agree that even this brief face-to-face meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest powers will set the long-term trajectory for bilateral relations and global politics for years to come.