标签： Asia

In recent weeks, public marches organized by supporters of Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s ousted former shah, across multiple European capitals have ignited fierce controversy for their open display of symbols tied to Savak, the widely condemned secret police force that oversaw systematic torture and political repression during the Pahlavi monarchy.

Participants in these demonstrations have marched in coordinated military-style formations, carried large portraits of Pahlavi – who has publicly endorsed recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran – and openly called for repeated attacks on Iranian territory and the restoration of the former crown prince to power. Leading the processions have been flags emblazoned with the Savak insignia, a symbol that for generations of Iranians immediately evokes decades of state-sponsored violence.

The first of these high-profile events took place in London on April 26, shortly after a bilateral ceasefire halted direct military clashes between the U.S. and Iran. London marchers dressed head-to-toe in black, marched in rigid military formations with arms folded behind their backs, chanted slogans praising the deposed shah, and some hid their identities behind balaclavas, with the Savak flag at the head of the parade. A nearly identical demonstration followed in Copenhagen on May 9, where participants wore khaki military-style uniforms. A third event was later held in Regensburg, Germany, where attendees wore printed T-shirts marked with the Savak official emblem.

To understand the outrage these parades have sparked, it is necessary to revisit the history of Savak, formally the State Security and Intelligence Organisation, founded in 1953 with direct training and assistance from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and Israel’s Mossad. For nearly 25 years under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Savak functioned as the primary tool of state repression to crush all political dissent against the monarchy. International human rights groups have documented decades of abuses committed by the agency, including widespread arbitrary detention, forced disappearances, extrajudicial executions, systematic torture of political prisoners, coercion against the families of detainees, and intimidation campaigns targeting Iranian dissidents living abroad. A 1976 Amnesty International investigation into Savak’s operations formally documented the agency’s pattern of torture and extrajudicial killing, describing it as an organization that operated “with extreme ruthlessness.”

Reactions to the public display of Savak symbols have split along generational and political lines within Iranian communities both inside the country and in the global diaspora. Many younger Iranian opponents of the current Islamic Republic government, who were born after the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah and never experienced Savak’s rule firsthand, have dismissed the marches as a desperate, absurd publicity stunt. A 27-year-old opponent of the Islamic Republic living inside Iran told Middle East Eye, “I could not stop laughing when I saw them wearing T-shirts with the Savak emblem. They could have identified themselves with something linked to knowledge, change, freedom or justice. Anything. But Savak? Really?” He described the marches as a “clown show” and a “pathetic reaction to losing momentum” among monarchist groups, which have seen domestic support collapse in Iran since the start of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against the country in February.

Older Iranians who survived Savak’s repression, however, view the parades as a deeply alarming normalization of state brutality that echoes the rise of fascist movements in 20th century Europe. Behrouz Farahani, a veteran anti-Islamic Republic activist who has lived in exile in Paris for 20 years and worked closely with French labor organizers, argued that the marches are part of a growing aggressive push by monarchists to marginalize and silence other Iranian opposition groups that oppose foreign military intervention in Iran. He noted that monarchists have increasingly resorted to online harassment, verbal attacks, and even physical confrontations against anti-war demonstrators at opposition events outside Iran. “Anyone with historical memory, anyone aware of the rise of fascism in Italy and Germany, would immediately think of these movements,” Farahani said. “When I saw the black-clad march, I was reminded of Mussolini’s supporters in Italy and pro-Hitler militia groups in Germany.”

Farahani added that the current political shift toward far-right, authoritarian-leaning politics in many Western countries has allowed Iranian monarchists to organize these events openly without pushback. He outlined two core goals behind the public parades beyond silencing dissent within the Iranian diaspora: first, to recruit younger Iranians who have no direct memory of the Pahlavi era and lack awareness of Savak’s widespread atrocities, and second, to build strategic alliances with far-right political movements currently holding power across Europe. “They want to signal to fascist and far-right parties in power that they share the same views, in order to gain their support,” he explained.

Sudabeh Jazani, a former political prisoner under the Islamic Republic who now lives in U.S. exile, shared Farahani’s comparison of the marches to interwar fascist rallies. Jazani’s own family suffered direct loss at the hands of Savak: her brother Bijan Jazani and uncle Saeed Kalantari were among nine political prisoners executed without trial by Savak in 1975 in the hills north of Tehran, and the regime never permitted the family to hold a public funeral for the victims. She warned that the open intimidation displayed by monarchists already holding no official power offers a clear preview of what rule by Pahlavi would mean for Iranians. “These people, who still have no power, are creating fear and terror. Those who did not live through Iran under the Shah need to ask themselves what they would do if they came to power,” Jazani said. Like Farahani, she argued that Pahlavi and his supporters, who receive political and financial backing from foreign interests including Israel, are deliberately distorting modern Iranian history to recruit younger Iranians who lack firsthand knowledge of the monarchy’s abuses. She expressed particular shock that the march in Germany – a country with strict legal restrictions on displays of fascist and violent authoritarian symbols – was allowed to proceed openly, and called on international human rights groups to condemn the events.

Recounting her own experience with Savak, Jazani described being arrested in 1975 after she offered condolences to the family of a political prisoner killed by the agency. During her interrogation, she was forced to flip through a photo album filled with graphic images of tortured bodies and executed political prisoners. “The interrogator gave me the album and said, ‘I will give you time to look at these carefully. If you don’t speak, the same will be your fate,’” she recalled. “When I hear the name Savak, I feel enraged, because they destroyed my family. For me, Savak means destruction, suffering, and torture.”

Multiple survivors of Savak detention who currently oppose both the current Iranian government and the restoration of the monarchy shared similar firsthand accounts of the climate of fear Savak imposed across Iranian society for decades. A sociology professor based inside Iran, who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons, was arrested during the shah’s rule for possessing a dissident political pamphlet and spent one year in Savak custody, where he endured what he described as “soft torture”: prolonged sleep deprivation, being forced to stand for hours at a time, and repeated physical abuse including pulling of his hair, moustache, and ears. “The very conversation we are having now, during the shah’s time, even a father and son would be afraid to have it, because there was a belief that Savak could be listening and that it could lead to arrest and torture,” he said.

The professor also noted that public, military-style marches by pro-shah groups are not a new phenomenon, tracing the pattern back to the early 1950s, when a pro-shah neo-Nazi group called Sumka, which promoted an ideology of Iranian Aryan racial superiority, carried out violent attacks on leftist and nationalist opposition gatherings with clubs and knives ahead of the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and restored the shah to power. It was after the 1953 coup that Savak was formally established to consolidate the shah’s control over every sector of Iranian society, targeting students, political activists, intellectuals, and even independent poets.

An Iranian writer based inside Iran, who has been interrogated by intelligence agencies both under the monarchy and after the 1979 revolution for his literary work, echoed these memories of terror. “The name Savak reminds me of horror and torture; of when I was sitting in an interrogation room and waiting for the interrogator, looking at the shah’s picture on the wall,” he said. He cited a poem by prominent Iranian poet Mehdi Akhavan-Sales, who was himself detained and interrogated by Savak, as the most accurate depiction of the constant fear the agency imposed: “And I am frightened by this image on the wall. In this image, that man, with the ominous and merciless whip of Xerxes, lashes out like a madman, but not at the sea; at my back, at my withered veins, at what lives in you, at what is dead in me.”

In late April 2026, former U.S. President Donald Trump made a bold prediction: Iran’s critical oil fields and energy infrastructure would “explode” within days, a collapse he credited entirely to Washington’s newly imposed naval blockade of Iranian ports. Framing the blockade as a flawless, genius strategy, Trump told reporters that Tehran would soon be forced to surrender, saying “They have to cry uncle; that’s all they have to do. Just say, ‘We give up.’”

Nearly a month on, however, Trump’s forecast has proven drastically overstated, with Iran’s long history of navigating energy crises allowing it to adapt rather than collapse. Decades of institutional experience coping with output cuts stretch back to the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, when Tehran slashed production from more than 5 million barrels per day to under 1.5 million to withstand pressure. More recently, during the first Trump administration’s 2018–2020 “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign, Iran cut output by another 2 million barrels per day without systemic energy collapse. Drawing on that hard-won expertise, Iran has already adjusted to the 2026 blockade, cutting current output by an estimated 400,000 barrels per day without widespread infrastructure failure. “We have enough expertise and experience,” said Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Association. “We’re not worried.”

Instead of collapsing Iran, the crisis has shifted pressure outward, hitting U.S. closest regional Gulf allies after Iran retaliated by closing a key segment of the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil production transits. The disruption has already choked off exports for vulnerable Gulf producers: shipping monitor TankerTrackers.com recorded zero crude oil exports from Kuwait in April 2026, the first time that has happened since the 1991 Gulf War. Unlike wealthier neighbors Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait has no alternative routes to reroute exports, forcing it to divert all production to domestic storage and refining.

Unlike Iran, which has honed strategies for surviving external pressure for decades, Gulf economies have no comparable experience navigating prolonged blockades and export disruptions. What is more, their growth models rely heavily on stable conditions to retain large migrant workforces, which are likely to depart if economic conditions worsen sharply. “The dual blockade is damaging Iran, but it is also attacking the foundations of the Gulf economic model,” explained Andreas Krieg, associate professor of security studies at King’s College London, in an interview with Middle East Eye. “It means Gulf producers cannot simply watch Iran suffer from a safe distance. Their own exports, logistics, insurance costs, food imports, aviation routes, LNG deliveries and investor confidence are all hit.” While Gulf states accumulated large financial reserves during decades of high oil prices, the current crisis has eroded long-held confidence in the region as a stable, low-friction hub for global energy, trade, capital and aviation, Krieg added.

The strain has already exposed deep vulnerabilities in the UAE’s geopolitical gambit: Abu Dhabi’s bet on an alliance with Israel to project regional power has backfired spectacularly, according to analysis from Moody’s Analytics. Before the conflict erupted in March, the UAE had claimed its non-oil sectors, particularly tourism, were robust enough to absorb regional shocks. That assumption has collapsed: Moody’s now projects hotel occupancy in the second half of 2026 will plummet to just 10 percent, down from 80 percent pre-conflict, amounting to an effective shutdown of large swathes of the country’s hospitality sector. Thousands of tourism workers have already been laid off, furloughed, or forced to take unpaid leave, with many businesses delaying salary payments amid collapsing revenue.

The ripple effects of the crisis extend far beyond the Middle East. South Asian economies that rely heavily on remittances and capital inflows from the Gulf have already been hit hard. When cash-strapped Pakistan attempted to mediate between Washington and Tehran to de-escalate the conflict, the UAE — angered by Islamabad’s mediation efforts and facing its own cash shortages — demanded immediate repayment of a $3.5 billion loan. The UAE has also entered talks with the Trump administration to secure a large international financial bailout, similar to the emergency rescue package extended to Argentina in 2025. Further afield, Egypt, Lebanon and Syria, all heavily dependent on Gulf investment, remittances, aid and political stability, are already bracing for deep cuts to external funding as Gulf states pare back spending to conserve reserves. “When Gulf states face revenue losses, they tend to become more selective, more conditional and more strategic,” Krieg noted.

In Southeast Asia, where major economies are overwhelmingly dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports, the crisis has triggered immediate austerity measures and pushed food insecurity to alarming levels. The Philippines imports 95 to 96 percent of its oil from the Gulf, while Vietnam imports 85 to 87 percent, and Thailand relies on Gulf supplies for roughly 60 percent of its crude needs. The disruption to gas supplies has hit global fertilizer production, driving prices up 80 percent in just over a month; Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of global fertilizer giant Yara International, warned that reduced fertilizer supplies could cut global crop yields by as much as 50 percent. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices hit their highest level since 2023 in April, with the Middle East conflict cited as a primary driver. To conserve fuel, the Philippines and Thailand have already introduced four-day workweeks and expanded work-from-home policies, while retail fuel prices have doubled across much of the region. In many countries, government fuel subsidies are the only thing preventing public unrest, but the cost of those subsidies has exploded, making the policy unsustainable long-term, according to Kuala Lumpur-based geopolitical analyst Arnaud Bertrand.

While the immediate crisis has forced governments to focus on short-term survival, business leaders in the region note the conflict is likely to accelerate a permanent shift toward renewable energy. “The war is likely to accelerate the move towards solar and wind and geothermal and hydro power across the region,” said Chris Humphrey of the EU-ASEAN Business Council in a CNBC interview. “All the governments in Southeast Asia are absolutely committed to that as a strategy going forward.”

Beyond the immediate economic damage, analysts warn the crisis has inflicted lasting damage to the credibility of U.S. power in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Even prominent U.S. foreign policy hawks have warned that Washington is facing a major strategic defeat. Robert Kagan, one of the most influential neoconservative voices and a long-time pro-Israel hardliner, wrote in an essay for *The Atlantic* earlier this month that Washington is heading toward “total defeat” in its campaign against Iran, and that the damage “can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done.” Former senior U.S. diplomat Tom Pickering, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel and under secretary of state for political affairs, wrote in *Foreign Affairs* that Washington’s insistence that it can force Iran into total surrender is contradicted by months of on-the-ground evidence, and that the U.S. may ultimately have to accept a compromise arrangement that aligns with core Iranian demands for a transit surcharge on ships passing through the strait.

The failed U.S. “Project Freedom” initiative, launched in early May to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz and break Iran’s blockade, underscored the gap between Trump’s rhetoric and results. The operation, which Trump claimed was launched at the request of countries with trapped vessels, ultimately succeeded in escorting just two U.S.-flagged ships through the waterway. “This war has shattered the idea that U.S. power, whatever its flaws, at least worked towards open sea lanes and at least helped protect you if you were an ‘ally’,” Bertrand noted. Even long-time U.S. partners in the region are shifting their approach: Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., once one of Washington’s closest Indo-Pacific allies, has recently made overtures to Beijing as U.S. policy fails to resolve the energy crisis.

This report was originally published by Middle East Eye, an independent outlet covering the Middle East, North Africa and global affairs.

Nearly 18 months after a 41-year-old Palestinian man with a chronic mental health condition vanished from his home in Gaza, a disturbing deleted social media post from an Israeli soldier has given his family the first clue to his fate — and left them with no clear answers about his whereabouts.

On November 18 of last year, Israeli soldier Harel Amshika shared a nine-image photo carousel to his personal Instagram account, paired with reflective text about his combat deployment in the Gaza Strip.

His years of frontline service “passed quickly, but left a big mark,” Amshika wrote. “Being a warrior in such a time is a privilege… Gratitude for sleepless nights… And a very long war. To friends who became family. To experiences that I never thought I would have, for better or worse.”

Amshika went on to express gratitude to his unit, the Shaked Battalion, which operates under the Israeli military’s Givati Brigade. He also honored fallen soldiers he had served with, specifically highlighting combat medic Ido Zano in his account biography.

Among the photos in the carousel was one particularly graphic image: a Palestinian man, clad in a full white hazmat suit with “B4” handwritten in black marker below his right shoulder, sits bound and blindfolded against a concrete block. The man has no shoes, with both his hands and ankles restrained. A green cloth or tape covers his eyes. Just above him, the lower half of a second bound man, whose hands and feet are secured with plastic zip ties, is visible on a neighboring block.

Over the image, Amshika overlaid a short, chilling caption: “For sale”.

Both the post and Amshika’s original Instagram account have since been taken down, though the soldier has created a new account with a nearly identical username and a one-line biography: “Just for fun”. Archived copies of the post and screengrabs of the dehumanizing photograph have nonetheless spread widely across social media platforms.

According to a new report from the Global Legal Action Network (GLAN), a Gaza-based Palestinian woman named Zahra Shorrab recognized the bound man in the circulated image as her son, Mohammed Shorrab. She confirmed the identification through distinct features including his hands, hair, and feet.

Mohammed, 41, requires ongoing care from his family for his mental health condition. He disappeared on August 20, 2024, after leaving his home to attend evening prayers; his family never saw him again after he stepped out.

For nearly a year and a half, his relatives searched for any trace of Mohammed, with no success. It was only when Zahra encountered the Israeli soldier’s “for sale” post that the family gained any information about what may have happened to him.

In an interview with journalist Ali Alasmer, Zahra Shorrab spoke out about the pain and outrage her family has endured. “Have the Palestinian people become so cheap that they are put up for sale? What is happening to us is cruel… It is unbearable that they are scattering us like this and that a Palestinian is being offered for sale,” she said.

“Do human beings no longer have any worth?” Shorrab asked. “We are human beings. We are people… How can they reduce him to something worthless like that?”

After the identification was confirmed, GLAN partnered with Hamoked, an Israeli human rights organization that provides free legal assistance to Palestinians living under Israeli occupation, to pursue answers on the family’s behalf.

On February 26, Hamoked submitted an official written inquiry to the Israel Prison Service, requesting information about Mohammed’s location and status.

The Israel Prison Service replied that after a full review of its detainee records, no evidence could be found that Mohammed Shorrab had ever been held in any of its facilities.

Yet as GLAN points out, the basic facts of the case remain unambiguous: the photograph exists, the soldier who took it has been publicly named, his military unit has been identified, and the brigade was confirmed to be operating in the area where Mohammed disappeared at the time he went missing.

Middle East Eye reached out to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with a series of questions about the case, covering both Mohammed Shorrab’s disappearance and Harel Amshika’s social media post.

In an official response, an IDF spokesperson stated: “Based on the examinations conducted thus far, no individual by the name Muhammad Rabee Saed Shorrab was found to be currently held, or to have been held during the war, in an IDF detention facility.

“Regarding the image presented, it is not possible to identify the individual depicted with certainty. The image was taken over two years ago, and the individuals involved have since been discharged and are no longer serving in the military. The image has been removed. Procedures regarding conduct toward detainees were reinforced to the forces throughout the war.”

Middle East Eye also specifically asked whether any disciplinary action had been opened against Amshika in connection with the post. As of the time of this reporting, the IDF has not responded to that question.

The revelation of the photograph comes as United Nations special rapporteurs released a new report this week documenting widespread allegations of torture and cruel treatment of Palestinian detainees. The report includes verified testimony describing abuses ranging from “repeated and serious physical assaults, setting dogs on detainees” to “handcuffing and blindfolding for extended periods, shackling to beds and feeding through straws.”

The UN investigation also documented “the prolonged deprivation of food, sleep deprivation, water and medical attention, prolonged exposure to the cold, being forced to kneel on gravel, deliberate humiliation, blackmailing, electric shocks, being burnt with cigarettes, and being given hallucinogenic pills”, as well as “enforced disappearance and arbitrary detention of essential healthcare workers in Gaza.”

This report is part of Middle East Eye’s independent, on-the-ground coverage of conflict and human rights issues across the Middle East and North Africa.