标签： Africa

As Benin prepares for a pivotal presidential election on Sunday, the entire campaign season has been overshadowed by growing alarm over the expansion of a violent Islamist insurgency that has already destabilized much of West Africa, turning this once largely peaceful nation into the conflict’s latest front line.

The vote comes just four months after outgoing two-term President Patrice Talon survived a coordinated coup attempt, a crisis that was only averted when regional power Nigeria deployed warplanes to target mutinous soldiers plotting to overthrow his civilian government. Nigeria’s swift intervention stopped Benin from following the trajectory of neighboring Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, all of which have fallen to military takeovers in recent years amid widespread public anger over civilian governments’ failure to counter al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated militant groups.

Benin’s own vulnerability to the insurgency was underscored in late March, when fighters from Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, killed 15 Beninese soldiers in a raid on a military outpost in Kofouno, near the Niger border. The attack continued a deadly pattern that emerged in 2025: that January, 28 soldiers died in an assault on W National Park, a vast protected reserve that spans Benin, Niger and Burkina Faso, and a further 54 troops were killed in the same area just three months later, marking the deadliest single string of losses for Benin’s military at the hands of insurgents.

W National Park, along with adjacent Pendjari and Arly Parks, forms West Africa’s largest contiguous protected wilderness, covering more than 1.7 million hectares of dense forest. Combined with the region’s highly porous international borders, the terrain provides ideal cover for militants to establish hidden bases and cross between countries undetected by security forces.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled), a violence monitoring organization, attacks in the border triangle linking Niger, Benin and Nigeria have spiked dramatically over the past 18 months, turning once-quiet remote transit routes into active conflict zones. Acled data shows that at least 1,000 people were killed in this border region in 2025, more than double the death toll recorded in 2024.

The rising violence has spread fear and disruption among local communities, who now worry their country could face the same level of devastation that neighboring Nigeria has endured from decades of Boko Haram insurgency. “We only want to work, to educate the youth, but it’s becoming so difficult,” a local school teacher told the BBC. “We can’t imagine our country becoming like Nigeria with Boko Haram’s threats, which has killed so many people.” A mother of one added: “We are afraid to go to the fields. I don’t know what to do, where to go. Anytime, those guys could come here and rape us, steal our stuff or kill us. It’s not easy. Benin doesn’t deserve this. The youth don’t deserve this.”

Heading into Sunday’s vote, the race for the presidency is a two-candidate contest between Romuald Wadagni, the 49-year-old incumbent finance minister and ruling coalition candidate who is currently the poll front-runner, and 56-year-old challenger Paul Hounkpè, a former culture minister.

In a bid to ease voter anxieties over security, Wadagni opened his campaign in March in Kandi, a key trade hub near the Niger-Nigeria border, before touring other violence-hit northern localities including Banikoara and Ségbana. Addressing thousands of cheering supporters, he pledged to make the safety of all Beninese citizens a non-negotiable daily priority if elected. “We will not let any dark forces come and take our lands or threaten citizens,” Wadagni said. “We will make sure our whole country is under protection.”

Hounkpè, who launched his campaign from Benin’s economic capital Cotonou, has echoed the focus on security while calling for a major shift in regional diplomacy. “We must join forces with our neighbours without losing our dignity,” he said. “Benin cannot act alone, close cooperation with Niger and Burkina Faso is essential.”

Hounkpè’s call for detente carries particular weight, as relations between Benin and the coup-ruled military governments of Niger and Burkina Faso have collapsed since 2023. Benin is a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which suspended the membership of the three coup-hit nations and initially threatened military intervention to restore civilian rule in Niger. In response, the three military-led states formed a separate political alliance, reoriented their foreign policy toward Russia, and accused ECOWAS of acting as a proxy for Western powers – a claim the regional bloc denies.

While Wadagni has also signaled openness to improving ties with the military governments, he is widely viewed as closer to Western powers than Hounkpè. Relations between Benin and Niger, currently led by Gen Abdourahmane Tiani, are particularly strained: Niger has kept its border with Benin closed since Tiani seized power in 2023, citing what it calls “hostile manoeuvres” originating from Benin’s territory, a charge Talon’s outgoing government rejects.

The election comes as Talon steps down after completing two full terms in office. His supporters argue he has preserved Benin’s standing as a stable civilian democracy, a key distinction at a time when military leaders in the region such as Burkina Faso’s Capt Ibrahim Traoré have publicly argued that democracy “kills” and that populations must abandon democratic governance. But Talon’s critics say democratic institutions have eroded during his tenure, pointing to changes to electoral and party registration laws that have drastically reduced opposition participation in national politics.

The new rules led to the main opposition bloc, The Democrats, being completely shut out of all seats in January’s parliamentary elections. The party’s intended presidential candidate was also disqualified from Sunday’s vote, after failing to secure the required number of candidate sponsorships. In a recent analysis, the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies noted that Hounkpè’s qualification for the race was only possible through a political arrangement with the ruling coalition, which provided the sponsorship signatures he needed to meet legal requirements.

With the main opposition excluded from the contest, many high-profile Democrats have thrown their support behind front-runner Wadagni, a move widely seen as a pragmatic bet on his likely victory and expectation of future government posts. Hounkpè, however, remains confident he can pull off an electoral upset, framing himself as the candidate of real change for Benin.

Regardless of which candidate claims victory on Sunday, most Beninese voters are anticipating a peaceful transfer of power, and share the same core hope: that the new administration will make greater progress repairing strained regional relations and rolling back the insurgency that has brought growing violence and uncertainty to the country’s northern borderlands.

Against a backdrop of growing global debate over the future of the international order, development and policy experts from across the Global South have identified China’s emergence on the global stage as a transformative force reshaping modern development trajectories and cross-border cooperation frameworks.

These analysts agree that China’s decades-long domestic transformation, paired with its deepening engagement with developing economies, has become a central reference point in global conversations about alternative growth paths and much-needed reform to global governance systems.

Donald Ramotar, former president of Guyana, noted that China’s development success stems from its ability to calibrate national policies to shifting global conditions while never losing sight of core domestic priorities. “They had a very intense discussion on appreciating their position in the world and the balance of forces that existed,” Ramotar explained, emphasizing that China successfully opened its economy while building an entirely new development model aligned with its own national needs.

Ramotar added that China’s foreign policy has consistently centered on cooperation and reciprocal benefit, especially when partnering with low- and middle-income nations facing structural development barriers. “This advanced position of a win-win foreign policy has helped them link with many countries,” he said, pointing out that these equitable development partnerships have allowed participating nations to expand domestic productive capacity and deepen mutually beneficial trade ties.

Ramotar also highlighted China’s leadership in major multilateral initiatives, including the recent expansion of the BRICS bloc and cross-continental connectivity projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. He argued these efforts reflect a clear understanding that shared economic progress is inextricably linked to global stability: “Peace and economic development are directly connected.” China’s approach to engagement with the Global South, he added, is rooted in the core belief that shared growth drives long-term global stability and expands trade opportunities for all parties: “They believed that if they help other countries to develop and trade with them, both sides will advance.”

Siphamandla Zondi, a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Johannesburg, framed China’s long-range global outlook as a product of its unbroken history as a civilizational state, a foundation that enables multi-generational policy planning and a unique approach to international engagement that differs dramatically from the short-term, transactional approach common in many Western capitals.

“The Chinese are able to draw from a pretty intact history … and are able to plan on the basis of the next 300 years,” Zondi said, drawing a contrast with the lasting colonial disruption that has shaped long-term planning capacity in many African and Global South nations.

Zondi explained that China’s focus on inter-civilizational dialogue and collective self-reliance defines its cooperation with developing countries, adding: “They think about cooperation, coexistence and solidarity as a way of life.” For China, he noted, development remains the central organizing principle of global power and international influence, rejecting the zero-sum logic that has defined traditional great power competition.

Addressing the common framing of China’s rise in Western geopolitical analysis as a zero-sum challenge to existing power structures, Zondi noted that Beijing’s strategy focuses far more on enabling global production networks than on exercising coercive dominance. China’s unbroken civilizational roots allow it to approach global affairs from a long-term, cross-cultural perspective rather than a narrow, purely nation-state-centric outlook, he added, with intercultural dialogue positioned as a core tool for managing competition and addressing shared transnational challenges.

“They see the possibility for dialogue among civilizations as a way to resolve competition and challenges,” Zondi said. “The Chinese rise is not about rising to domination but rising to the center as an enabler.”

Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder and leader of the Germany-based Schiller Institute, echoed these observations, noting that China’s proposals for global governance offer a much-needed alternative framework for the international community, one built on inclusion, sovereign equality, and mutual respect for all nations.

“It must not be always one winner and one loser; you can have win-win cooperation where everybody wins,” she said, pointing out that development-focused partnerships are growing increasingly attractive to nations working to close crippling infrastructure gaps and reduce widespread poverty.

Zepp-LaRouche also linked China’s remarkable domestic economic transformation to consistent, long-term investment in education, technological innovation, and cultural development — all of which she identified as core drivers of productivity and sustained long-term growth. She added that China’s policy trajectory reflects long-range development planning that transcends short-term geopolitical rivalry, a approach that has been reinforced by widespread public confidence in national long-term planning and progress.

“I have come to the conclusion that the Chinese people are not only content with their government, but they are extremely optimistic,” Zepp-LaRouche said, noting that most Chinese citizens expect future generations to enjoy even higher living standards.

Looking forward, the experts agreed that as the global system shifts toward a more diversified distribution of economic and political power, nations across the Global South will increasingly seek out practical, equitable development partnerships and new cooperative global platforms. China’s decades of development experience and cooperative policy approach, they concluded, will remain a critical reference point for global discussions about how to navigate this ongoing global transition.

On an early Thursday morning in Nigeria’s restive northeastern Borno State, a brazen pre-dawn raid on a military installation in Benisheikh left a brigadier general and an unspecified number of service members dead, according to official Nigerian military and government statements. While the attack succeeded in killing senior military personnel, security forces successfully repelled the assault, army spokesperson Michael Onoja confirmed in an official release.

Onoja labeled the attackers “terrorists,” the standard terminology the Nigerian military uses for members of the multiple Islamic insurgent groups that have waged a decade-long campaign of violence across the country’s northern regions. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu later released a formal statement identifying the fallen senior officer as Brigadier General Oseni Omoh Braimah, extending his deepest condolences to the families of all troops killed in the confrontation.

In his remarks, Tinubu framed the deadly attack as a signal of growing insurgent desperation amid government military pressure. “The insurgents’ counterattack is a sign of desperation,” the president said. “I extend my condolences to the families of our gallant soldiers, led by Brigadier General Oseni Omoh Braimah, who made the ultimate sacrifice in the defense of our country today in Borno State. The government will never forget their sacrifices.”

Tinubu reaffirmed the federal government’s unwavering commitment to eradicating extremist violence across the nation, adding: “Their sacrifices will not be in vain. Because of the courage and dedication of our troops on the front line, our resolve to defeat terrorism and all forms of violence across Nigeria is stronger than ever.”

Echoing the president’s framing, Onoja emphasized that the raid came as insurgent groups have sustained heavy territorial and manpower losses from recent Nigerian military offensives, pushing them to carry out reckless, doomed attacks against fortified military outposts. “This attack is a clear indication of the desperation of terrorist elements who, having suffered significant losses in recent operations, continue to resort to futile and ill-fated offensives against well-defended military positions,” he said. “Regrettably, the encounter resulted in the loss of a few brave and gallant soldiers who paid the supreme price in the line of duty.”

The attack unfolds against the backdrop of a years-long, deteriorating security crisis across northern Nigeria. Africa’s most populous nation has struggled to contain overlapping insurgencies and militia violence for more than a decade, with the northeast being the epicenter of the conflict. Two of the most prominent active groups are the original Boko Haram insurgent organization and its breakaway faction, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. In the country’s northwest, bordering Niger, the IS-affiliated Lakurawa network also carries out regular attacks on security forces and civilian targets, alongside widespread ransom kidnappings.

In recent years, the crisis has expanded further, with extremist groups from the neighboring Sahel region expanding their operations into Nigerian territory. Last year, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a major al-Qaeda-affiliated Sahel insurgent group, carried out its first claimed attack on Nigerian soil, marking a worrying expansion of regional insecurity.

Earlier in 2024, the United States deployed 200 U.S. troops and surveillance drones to Nigeria as part of a new security cooperation agreement to support Nigerian counter-insurgency efforts. U.S. military officials stressed that American personnel would not participate in direct combat operations, retaining no operational command authority that remains fully in the hands of Nigerian security forces. The deployment was agreed on after former U.S. President Donald Trump raised public claims that Christian communities were being disproportionately targeted in Nigeria’s ongoing violence. Most recently, U.S. forces carried out targeted airstrikes against Islamic State positions in the region on December 26.

According to United Nations data, the decade-long insurgency has claimed the lives of thousands of Nigerian civilians and security personnel. Many independent security analysts have repeatedly criticized the Nigerian federal government for failing to deploy sufficient resources and effective strategy to protect civilian populations and end the long-running conflict.

A long-simmering dispute between Kenya and the United Nations has boiled over into public view, after Nairobi formally pushed back against a published UN report that accuses Kenyan troops serving in the Haiti security mission of involvement in sexual abuse and exploitation, including assaults on minor children.

The Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) was first deployed to Haiti in 2024, following a formal authorization from the UN Security Council. The deployment’s core mandate was to support Haitian authorities in quelling the rampant gang violence that has plunged the Caribbean nation into years of humanitarian and security crisis. Plagued by persistent underfunding, operational hurdles, and recruitment shortfalls, the 2,500-person target for the mission was never met, and the force ultimately failed to rein in the widespread bloodshed terrorizing Haitian communities. The MSS has since been phased out and replaced by a larger international contingent, the Gang Suppression Force, as international efforts to stabilize Haiti continue.

Last week, a public report from UN Secretary-General António Guterres linked Kenyan officers serving with the MSS to four separate incidents of rape and other sexual violence. Three of the reported victims are children: one 12-year-old and two 16-year-olds. The UN report notes that all four allegations were shared with the MSS force commander, and adds that investigations carried out by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights found the claims to be credible and substantiated. The document emphasizes that any form of sexual exploitation and abuse by peacekeeping or security mission personnel constitutes a fundamental breach of the trust extended by local communities to the UN and its international partners, and the UN confirms the allegations remain under formal review.

In response to the public release of the report, Kenya’s Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi submitted a formal letter of protest to UN chief António Guterres, pushing back firmly against the claims. Mudavadi noted that the allegations first emerged back in August of last year, and that Kenyan authorities launched an immediate, full inquiry into the claims shortly after they were raised. The inquiry’s results, he said, found the accusations completely unsubstantiated.

“No formal complaints were filed with any national or international authority, and we shared the findings of our investigation transparently with both Haitian government bodies and relevant UN agencies,” Mudavadi stated in the letter. The minister added that all Kenyan personnel serving with the MSS have consistently adhered to every code of conduct and operational rule mandated for the mission, and no official inquiry has ever produced evidence of misconduct by Kenyan troops.

Despite widespread domestic opposition to the deployment and the well-documented operational and financial challenges that hampered the mission, Mudavadi reaffirmed that Kenya’s participation in the MSS reflected the East African nation’s steadfast commitment to supporting international efforts to restore peace and security to Haiti.

The dispute comes as international stakeholders continue to grapple with how to address Haiti’s ongoing security collapse, which has left hundreds of thousands of people displaced and millions in need of humanitarian assistance, with gangs controlling large swathes of the capital Port-au-Prince and other major urban centers.

The United States has given authorization for non-emergency diplomatic personnel and their family members to depart its Abuja-based embassy in Nigeria, a move triggered by what Washington describes as a rapidly worsening nationwide security landscape.

Released on Wednesday, the updated State Department travel guidance also urges all American citizens to rethink any planned trips to Nigeria, pointing to pervasive threats of terrorism, spontaneous civil unrest and widespread kidnapping. At least 23 high-risk Nigerian states have been bumped to the agency’s strictest warning category, which strictly prohibits any travel to those affected regions.

This new advisory lands in the middle of a sharp uptick in fatal attacks across multiple parts of the West African nation, and it comes even as the US and Nigeria have expanded their long-standing bilateral security partnership in recent years. For years, Washington has collaborated closely with Abuja on counter-terrorism operations, maritime domain security, cross-border intelligence sharing and military training. Most recent joint efforts have included targeted surveillance and reconnaissance support, plus the provision of aircraft and helicopters that Nigerian forces now deploy against Islamist insurgents and violent armed factions.

The decision to draw down non-essential embassy staff lays bare a stark disconnect: deep strategic military cooperation between the two nations has not translated to improved safety for ordinary civilians navigating daily life across large swathes of Nigeria. The travel advisory explicitly warns US citizens that violent attacks can strike with little to no advance warning in public gathering spots, including open-air markets, hotels, houses of worship, educational institutions and major transportation hubs.

As of Thursday, the US embassy in Abuja has not released details on when the departing staff will leave the country, nor has it clarified whether the order applies exclusively to American personnel or extends to Nigerian staff employed at the mission. Nigerian federal authorities have also not yet issued an official public response to the new directive.

In previous cases, Nigerian officials have pushed back against similar high-level travel warnings, arguing that such blanket advisories overlook tangible security gains made in some regions and risk unfairly damaging the country’s global reputation. There are growing local concerns that this latest warning will deal an additional blow to Nigeria’s already fragile economic recovery goals: the government is currently actively courting foreign direct investment, and restrictions could discourage diaspora travel, derail planned international conferences and disrupt ongoing international development projects across the country.

US officials also pointed to a growing dangerous trend in the country: increasing collaboration between transnational extremist groups and local criminal gangs, a shift that has significantly complicated counter-insurgency and stability efforts across Nigeria. While the country as a whole remains classified at Level 3 (“reconsider travel”) in the updated advisory, the 23 states upgraded to Level 4 (“do not travel”) include multiple northwestern and central states: Plateau, Jigawa, Kwara, Niger and Taraba. They join long-standing Level 4 states in the northeast, including Borno and Yobe, which have borne the brunt of a 15-year Islamist insurgency.

Weeks of recurrent violence linked to armed banditry, intercommunal clashes and retaliatory attacks have killed dozens of civilians in Plateau and Benue states alone in recent weeks. In the northeast, Boko Haram and its offshoot, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), continue to launch regular attacks on civilian communities, military convoys and humanitarian aid workers, with the worst violence concentrated in Borno.

As violence spreads beyond long-established conflict hotspots and public frustration with government inaction grows among Nigerian citizens, many see the US travel warning as a stark wake-up call: urgent action is needed to restore full security across the country and rebuild public and investor confidence, both domestically and internationally.