India’s economic trajectory remains strong with projected growth between 6.8% and 7.2% for the upcoming fiscal year starting April, according to the government’s annual economic survey presented Thursday. While this represents a slight moderation from the current year’s 7.4% expansion, the forecast underscores the resilience of domestic demand against mounting global challenges.
The comprehensive assessment, presented to parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, characterizes the outlook as ‘steady growth amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism.’ The report highlights several external pressures including slower growth among key trading partners, trade disruptions from tariff impositions, and capital flow volatility that may periodically affect export performance and investor sentiment.
International institutions have echoed this cautiously optimistic assessment. The IMF recently upgraded India’s growth forecast by 0.7 percentage points to 7.3%, while the World Bank increased its projection by 0.9 points to 7.2% for the coming fiscal year.
Currency dynamics present a particular challenge. The Indian rupee hit a historic low of 91.9850 per dollar on Thursday, with the survey noting the currency is ‘punching below its weight’ despite strong economic fundamentals. This depreciation, while partially offsetting the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, has contributed to significant capital outflows—foreign investors withdrew a record $19 billion from Indian equities in 2025.
The report identifies recent structural reforms—including consumption-tax reductions, labor law modernization, and nuclear-power sector liberalization—as key drivers expected to bolster both investment and consumption. Additionally, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States could potentially reduce external uncertainties if concluded successfully within the year.
Monetary policy has supported growth momentum, with the Reserve Bank of India implementing 125 basis points of rate cuts since February 2025—the most aggressive easing cycle since 2019. Current indicators suggest sustained demand buoyancy as the new year progresses, positioning India among the world’s fastest-growing major economies despite global headwinds.









