On a tense Wednesday in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, residents were ordered to immediately seek shelter, the country’s top political leaders were moved to secure locations, and Vilnius Airport closed its airspace for an hour after a border drone alarm triggered the first mass shelter-in-place order for a NATO and EU capital since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The emergency push to get people to safety came after Lithuanian military officials detected unauthorized drone activity within neighboring Belarus, a close military ally of Russia that borders eastern Lithuania. No drones were ultimately confirmed to have crossed into Lithuanian territory, but the alarm laid bare the persistent anxiety along NATO’s eastern flank over unintended incursions tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
According to local reporting agency BNS, both President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene were evacuated to designated safe shelters, and an evacuation order was also issued for Lithuania’s national parliament, the Seimas. The one-hour closure of Vilnius Airport disrupted regional air travel while authorities assessed the potential threat.
The incident is the latest in a string of cross-border drone occurrences that have stoked instability across the Baltic region in recent weeks. Just a day before the Vilnius alert, a NATO fighter jet intercepted and shot down a stray Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Ukraine quickly issued a formal apology for what it called an unintended incident, though it offered no further details on the drone’s original mission.
Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys took to social media Tuesday to accuse Moscow of intentionally redirecting Ukrainian drones into Baltic airspace, then launching disinformation campaigns against the three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — to undermine regional cohesion. “It’s a transparent act of desperation — an attempt to sow chaos and distract from a simple reality: Ukraine is hitting Russia’s military machine hard,” Budrys wrote.
The rising frequency of these incidents has already shaken political order in the region: just last week, Latvia’s entire ruling coalition collapsed after months of mounting tension, triggered in part by public disagreement over how to handle a series of suspected stray drone incursions from Ukrainian operations against Russia. The controversy forced the defense minister to step down after his party withdrew support, ultimately prompting the prime minister to dissolve the government.
Speaking Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte struck a measured tone, praising the alliance’s coordinated response to recent drone events. “They have been met with a calm, decisive and proportionate response,” Rutte said. “This is exactly what we planned and prepared for,” he added, noting that all the current unrest stems directly from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Western intelligence and diplomatic officials have generally attributed the stray incursions into NATO territory to accidental drone deviations, often worsened by Russian electronic jamming that throws Ukrainian drones off course. But Moscow has issued repeated aggressive threats, saying it will launch retaliatory strikes against any Baltic state that it accuses of hosting or complicity in Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian territory.
The recent uptick in cross-border drone scares comes as both Russia and Ukraine have ramped up large-scale drone attacks against one another’s critical infrastructure. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s air force announced it had intercepted and destroyed 131 of 154 drones Russia launched in an overnight assault. Drones that penetrated Ukrainian defenses killed three civilians and wounded 18 more, including two children, according to Ukrainian officials.
In turn, Ukraine’s continuing drone campaign against Russia’s energy sector claimed new targets overnight. Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed its drones struck a major Russian oil refinery and a key oil pipeline pumping station. Russian local media also reported a fire at a chemical plant in the southern Stavropol region following a suspected drone strike, though regional officials have not formally confirmed a direct hit.
Amid shifting global energy markets disrupted by regional conflict, two major Western backers of Ukraine have recently adjusted sanctions on Russian oil to address growing supply shortages. The United Kingdom, one of Kyiv’s most vocal supporters, announced Wednesday it is loosening restrictions on Russian crude that is processed into diesel and jet fuel in third countries, a change driven by rising fuel prices tied to ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping chokepoint, has sparked widespread supply concerns that prompted the policy shift.
The UK’s adjustment follows a similar move by the United States, which announced a 30-day extension of a temporary waiver allowing countries to import Russian oil that is already loaded onto tankers at sea. The extension marks another reversal of policy by the Trump administration, which previously stated it would resume full sanctions on Russian oil. The temporary sanctions waiver was first introduced in early March and extended once already in April.
Contributions to this report were provided by Geir Moulson in Berlin, Lorne Cook in Brussels, Hanna Arhirova in Kyiv, and Barry Hatton in Lisbon.